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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
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Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller November 18, 2016
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity declined to 1 during November from an unrevised 6 during each of the prior two months. That still represented improvement, however, versus negative readings registered early last year. New orders eased recently as have shipments. Production slackened while employment eased. The length of the employee workweek shortened and supplier delivery times fell. The rate of decline in finished goods prices slowed significantly, while raw materials prices increased at the quickest rate since Q3'14.
Expectations for business conditions in six months deteriorated m/m, although they remained in an upward trend. Expected shipments eased, but new orders expectation picked up. Employment expectations weakened sharply, but the expected workweek improved. Expected capital expenditures surged. Expectations for export orders were positive versus negative readings for all of 2015. The future inventories reading fell sharply. Expectations for finished goods prices continued to be positive. Expected raw materials prices also strengthened.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The survey included 94 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA)||Nov||Oct||Sep||Nov '15||2015||2014||2013|
|Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance)||1||6||6||-1||-5||7||0|
|New Orders Volume||6||14||12||1||-8||7||1|
|Number of Employees||1||7||-3||-9||-10||5||-2|
|Prices Received for Finished Product||-2||-5||-7||-8||-5||5||4|
|Expected Conditions in Six Months||12||18||10||6||4||17||10|
|New Orders Volume||27||16||24||17||11||26||18|
|Number of Employees||5||21||14||9||6||18||9|
|Prices Received for Finished Product||11||8||7||3||9||26||24|