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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Sandy Batten November 22, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions slipped a bit in November to 15.6 from 16.3 in October. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since July 2015. Still, 41% of respondents reported an increase in current activity, up from 40% in October. There is not a market consensus forecast for this release. The expectations index for November was unchanged at 40.4, though 54% of respondents look for stronger activity six months from now. This index has generally fluctuated within a range during 2016.
The components of the release, however, demonstrated more optimism that did the headline current conditions index. The new orders index jumped to 12.6 in November from 5.7 in October with 34% reporting an increase. Sales/revenues exhibited even more ebullience, surging to 17.2 in November from 6.0 in October with 39% of respondents indicating an increase in sales/revenues in November. And the number of full-time permanent employees index rose to 14.3 from 8.5 in October with 27% reporting an increase. Prices paid edged up to 16.5 from 15.0 in October.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. So, readings above zero indicate more positive than negative responses. These indexes have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, SA)||Nov||Oct||Sep||Nov'15||2015||2014||2013|
|General Activity - Company||15.6||16.3||16.7||28.3||31.4||38.8||29.8|
|Sales or Revenue||17.2||6.0||11.1||24.0||23.6||30.2||27.0|
|Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees||14.3||8.5||19.3||15.7||15.6||17.3||18.8|
|Expected General Activity - Company||40.4||40.4||52.7||56.6||54.0||60.1||47.4|