- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Mar)
- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
- Uruguay: GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller November 28, 2016
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity index jumped to 10.2 during November, following negative readings extending back to December 2015. The worst of those indications occurred this past January at -34.6. The production figure of 8.8 was higher than -13.1 six months ago. The growth rate of new orders also improved to -0.8, up from -17.5 in January. Hiring activity has been strengthening. The latest reading of 4.5 compared to a June low of -11.5. The workweek reading rose to 2.5 versus a low of -12.8, also in June. Growth in wages & benefits also improved with the index reading at 18.4 against a July low of 10.5. Shipments deteriorated, however, as indicated by a negative 1.9 versus a June high of 20.1. Pricing power has been steadily improving. With the prices received reading at 8.0, it was up versus a low of -15.5 in December. Raw materials pricing similarly jumped. All of the figures are seasonally adjusted.
Optimism about future conditions was apparent throughout the report. The index of future business activity jumped to 31.6, its highest level since January 2011. The future production series similarly surged to 52.3, up sharply versus a January 2015 low. Expected orders and shipments growth surged as well. The employment reading doubled m/m to 30.6, its highest point since October 2014. The index of expected wages & benefits to be paid in six months similarly strengthened to the highest level since the middle of last year.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The Minutes of the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
|Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance)||Nov||Oct||Sep||Nov'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Current General Business Activity Index||10.2||-1.5||-3.7||-5.4||-12.5||8.3||2.2|
|Growth Rate of Orders||-0.8||-5.1||-5.8||-6.6||-11.8||4.7||0.1|
|Number of Employees||4.5||0.2||2.3||10.0||-0.4||11.5||5.6|
|Prices Received for Finished Goods||8.0||1.2||-0.9||-11.3||-8.5||8.3||2.9|
|General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months||31.6||4.8||9.3||7.0||4.1||17.4||11.0|
|Growth Rate of New Orders||42.4||23.5||19.1||24.5||20.7||31.5||25.0|
|Wages & Benefits||40.4||36.4||31.2||33.6||33.2||43.1||38.2|