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- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts and Statistical Balance Sheet (Mar); Australia: Import and Export Price Indexes (Q1)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller November 29, 2016
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence index for November increased 6.3% (15.7% y/y) to 107.1, the highest level since July 2007. October's level was revised up to 100.8 from 98.6. A rise to 101.1 in November had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70.0% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The index of confidence about the future situation increased 6.6% (14.1% y/y) to 91.7, while the present situation index gained 5.8% (17.5% y/y) to 130.3.
An increased 29.2% of respondents felt that business conditions were good, the highest level in three months. A improved 26.9% of individuals thought that jobs were plentiful. A stable 27.1% thought jobs were hard to get, the least of the expansion.
The outlook for future business conditions deteriorated. The percentage who thought that there would be more jobs was fairly stable at 14.5%, but up from 12.0% a year ago. Expectations for the inflation rate eased to 4.7%, and matched the lowest level since February 2007. A fairly stable 62.2% thought that interest rates would rise. Plans to buy a new home recovered to 1.3% following sharp declines in the prior two months. Total plans to buy a major appliance recovered to the highest level (52.4%) sine January.
By age group, confidence amongst individuals under 35 years old jumped 7.4% (25.6% y/y) to a recovery high. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 improved 5.5% (14.5% y/y), and neared the recovery high. Confidence amongst those 55 and over rose 6.3% (14.5% y/y).
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Nov||Oct||Sep||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||107.1||100.8||103.5||15.7||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||133.3||124.1||116.4||25.6||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||112.8||106.9||109.2||14.5||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||89.9||84.6||93.4||14.5||84.1||73.8||61.2|