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Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller November 29, 2016
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence index for November increased 6.3% (15.7% y/y) to 107.1, the highest level since July 2007. October's level was revised up to 100.8 from 98.6. A rise to 101.1 in November had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70.0% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The index of confidence about the future situation increased 6.6% (14.1% y/y) to 91.7, while the present situation index gained 5.8% (17.5% y/y) to 130.3.
An increased 29.2% of respondents felt that business conditions were good, the highest level in three months. A improved 26.9% of individuals thought that jobs were plentiful. A stable 27.1% thought jobs were hard to get, the least of the expansion.
The outlook for future business conditions deteriorated. The percentage who thought that there would be more jobs was fairly stable at 14.5%, but up from 12.0% a year ago. Expectations for the inflation rate eased to 4.7%, and matched the lowest level since February 2007. A fairly stable 62.2% thought that interest rates would rise. Plans to buy a new home recovered to 1.3% following sharp declines in the prior two months. Total plans to buy a major appliance recovered to the highest level (52.4%) sine January.
By age group, confidence amongst individuals under 35 years old jumped 7.4% (25.6% y/y) to a recovery high. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 improved 5.5% (14.5% y/y), and neared the recovery high. Confidence amongst those 55 and over rose 6.3% (14.5% y/y).
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Nov||Oct||Sep||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||107.1||100.8||103.5||15.7||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||133.3||124.1||116.4||25.6||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||112.8||106.9||109.2||14.5||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||89.9||84.6||93.4||14.5||84.1||73.8||61.2|