- US: Advance Trade & Inventories (Feb)
- Sweden: Retail Trade, PPI, International Trade (Feb); Iceland: CPI (Mar)
- Turkey: International Reserves (Feb); Mauritius: Wage Rate Index, LFS (Q4); Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Jan); Palestine: BOP (Q4); UAE: Fuel Prices (Apr); Israel: Construction Starts & Completions (Q4); South Africa: Construction Survey (Q1); Tanzania: Trade (Q4)
- Brazil: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2016
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm payroll employment increased 216,000 during November following a 119,000 October rise, revised from 147,000. The September increase of 196,000 also was revised down from 202,000. The latest was the largest increase since June. So far this year, payrolls rose an average 176,000 per month, down from 209,000 averaged during 2015, and 237,000 averaged in 2014. The latest increase compared to expectations for a 160,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 37,000 (1.7% y/y) after an 18,000 gain. These increases were down from the high of 120,000 averaged in Q4'14. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 89,000 (1.6% y/y) compared to 40,000 in October, both less than the 112,000 averaged in Q1'14. Large-sized businesses posted a 90,000 increase in jobs (2.7% y/y), up from the 19,000 averaged in Q2'15.
Service-producing payrolls increased 228,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 138,000 rise. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities increased 69,000 (1.7% y/y). Professional & business payrolls rose 68,000 (3.1% y/y). Education & health services employment gained 43,000 (2.6% y/y), while the leisure & hospitality sector increased hiring by 38,000 (2.5% y/y). Financial sector payrolls added 12,000 (2.1% y/y).
Goods-producing jobs declined 11,000 (-0.2% y/y) after a 20,000 increase. Employment in the construction industry inched 2,000 higher (+1.3% y/y) following a 16,000 decline. Hiring in the factory sector fell 10,000 (-0.3% y/y) after a 1,000 slip.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
A View from the Fed by Fed Governor Jerome H. Powell is available here.
|ADP/Moody's National Employment Report||Nov||Oct||Sep||Nov Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s)||216||119||196||1.9%||2.3%||2.2%||1.9%|
|Small Payroll (1-49)||37||18||51||1.7||2.6||2.1||1.9|
|Medium Payroll (50-499)||89||40||75||1.6||2.3||2.8||2.2|
|Large Payroll (>500)||90||60||71||2.7||1.7||1.6||1.5|