- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2016
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index increased to 57.6 during November and recouped an unrevised October decline to 50.6. The latest was the highest level since January 2015. The figure compared to expectations for 52.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure increased to 56.4, the highest level since December 2014. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
The new orders series jumped to 63.2 from 52.5, the highest level since June. The production series improved to 59.1 and made up most of its October decline. The order backlog series jumped to 52.8, the highest level since June. The inventories figure increased sharply to 56.1, the highest level since October.
Working the other way, the employment figure eased to below break-even at 49.7 versus 51.1 in October. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment.
The prices paid reading also declined to 56.8 from 59.5. The figure compared to a February low of 41.1. A lessened 19% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a steady 8% paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||Nov||Oct||Sep||Nov '15||2015||2014||2013|
|General Business Barometer||57.6||50.6||54.2||47.7||50.3||60.7||56.0|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||56.4||51.0||53.7||48.7||51.6||59.3||54.2|