- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller December 1, 2016
Industrial sector activity is developing upward momentum. The ISM composite index of factory sector activity rose to 53.2 during November from an unrevised 51.9 in October. It was the highest level since June, and the eighth month this year when the index was above break-even. The latest figure compared to an expected 52.2 in the Action Economic Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the index level and the q/q change in real GDP.
Most component series improved last month. Production rose to the highest level since January 2015. The supplier delivery series surged, and indicated the slowest product delivery speeds since December 2014. The inventory index improved, showing a slowing rate of decumulation. New orders rose slightly. The employment index eased m/m but remained above the break-even level of 50. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid index remained above 50 for the ninth straight month. It held m/m at 54.5, but was down from 63.5 in May. Twenty-one percent (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while 12 percent paid less.
Amongst the other ISM series, the export index eased slightly to 52.0. It remained up, however, versus the February low of 46.5. The imports index declined to 50.5, but remained up from the low of 47.0 three months ago. The order backlog index increased to 49.0, little changed for five months.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates increase. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Mfg (SA)||Nov||Oct||Sep||Nov'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Prices Paid Index (NSA)||54.5||54.5||53.0||35.5||39.8||55.6||53.8|