- Korea: GDP (Q4); Thailand Auto Sales (Feb)
- Turkey: Capacity Utilization, Business Tendency survey (Mar); South Africa: Tourism & Migration (Jan), Manufacturing Survey (Q1)
- Croatia: Tourism (Jan); Montenegro: Foreign Trade (Feb); Czech Republic: CPI by COICOP (Feb), Registered Employment (Q4); Kazakhstan: Loans & Deposits (Feb); Slovenia: Business Cycle Indicators (Mar); Russia: Employment by Industry (Q4);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller December 22, 2016
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators remained unchanged during November (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% October uptick. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The six-month change in the index improved to 2.0% (AR)
Contributing positively to the index last month were initial unemployment insurance claims, a steeper interest rate yield curve, nondefense capital goods orders, factory orders for consumer goods, stock prices, consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, stock prices and the leading credit index. Contributing negatively were the average workweek, building permits, a lower ISM new orders diffusion index and more initial claims for unemployment insurance.
The coincident index increased 0.1% (1.7%) following a 0.2% increase, revised from 0.1%. Six-month growth improved to 2.1%. Nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales contributed positively to the index change. Industrial production contributed negatively.
The lagging index rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after an unrevised 0.2% gain. Six-month growth fell to 2.1% versus a 4.9% high early last year. The average duration of unemployment, change in commercial & industrial loans outstanding, the consumer installment credit/income ratio and the business I/S ratio contributed positively to the index. The six-month change in the services CPI and the six-month change in labor costs contributed negatively.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio eased m/m to a record low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
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