- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Carol Stone, CBE December 30, 2016
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index decreased to 54.6 in December following a jump to 57.6 during November. The December figure compared to expectations for a smaller drop to 56.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For all of 2016, the barometer averaged 53.1, up from 50.3 in 2015. Readings above 50 indicate growth, while those below 50 show declines in activity levels.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released January 3. The Haver figure slowed to 53.1 from November's 56.4. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between this adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
The new orders series, which had jumped almost 11 points in November to 63.2, backed off to 56.5 for December. Consequently, order backlogs retreated markedly, to 42.6 from 52.8. Inventories also fell, to 46.0 from 56.1. The production series, however, changed little, just edging down to 58.5 from 59.1.
The employment figure was unchanged for December at November's 49.7. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment. Supplier deliveries were the only activity component to increase, rising to 54.7 from 53.9.
The prices paid reading increased to 58.0 from 56.8. For all of 2016, prices were noticeably firmer, at 53.2 versus 46.8 in 2015.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail, including the ISM-style index, in the SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||Dec||Nov||Oct||Dec '15||2016||2015||2014|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||53.1||56.4||51.0||46.8||52.0||51.6||59.3|
|General Business Barometer||54.6||57.6||50.6||42.9||53.1||50.3||60.7|