- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
- Vietnam: GDP (Q1), CPI, IP, International Trade, Passenger & Cargo Traffic Statistics, Manufacturing Sales and Inventories, International Visitor Arrivals (Mar); Korea: Economic Sentiment
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller January 3, 2017
Manufacturing sector activity continues to strengthen. The ISM composite index of factory sector activity increased to 54.7 during December from an unrevised 53.2 during November. It was highest reading since December 2014. Expectations called for 53.8 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For all of last year the measure was little-changed at 51.5. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the index level and the q/q change in real GDP.
Pricing power strengthened last month. The sharp rise in the prices index to 65.5 was to the highest level in over five years. Fully 38% of respondents reported higher prices while just seven reported them lower.
The new orders reading increased to 60.2, its highest level since November 2014. For all of last year, the orders index rose to an improved 54.7. Strengthened exports helped the orders' rise with the measure at 56.0, its highest since May 2014. The production measure strengthened to 60.3, also a two-year high, but the full-year reading of 54.0 was just slightly above 2014. Employment improved slightly. The reading of 53.1 compared to 52.3 in November and indicated the third consecutive month of expansion in manufacturing sector payrolls.
Holding back the rise in the overall ISM index was a decline in the supplier delivery measure to 52.9, indicating slightly swifter product delivery speeds. The inventory index also fell, but the sharp decline to 47.0 showed inventory decumulation at the quickest rate since May.
Amongst the sub-components, the order backlog measure held steady m/m, but rose for all of last year to the highest level since 2014. The imports index also was stable m/m, but for the full year fell to the lowest point since 2009.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates increase. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Financial Vulnerability and Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
|ISM Mfg (SA)||Dec||Nov||Oct||Dec'15||2016||2015||2014|
|Prices Paid Index (NSA)||65.5||54.5||54.5||33.3||53.5||39.8||55.6|