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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller January 17, 2017
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions for January continued to suggest positive economic conditions, though it eased to 6.5 in January from 7.6 in December. It was the third straight positive reading following more than a year's worth of negative figures. A January level of 8.1 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Figures back to 2015 were revised. These data, reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflect business conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is comparable to the ISM series. The adjusted figure improved to 50.9 from 48.5. It was the highest level since April and also the first to indicate positive growth in the same period. During the last ten years, the index posted a 63% correlation with the change in real GDP.
Amongst the index components, new orders, shipments and inventories each posted positive readings. Other series were negative, but improved versus December. The employment index jumped to -1.7, its least negative figure since August. During the last ten years, there has been a 69% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid series jumped to 36.1, the highest level since January 2014. A sharply increased 41.2% of respondents reported paying higher prices, while a fairly steady 5.0% reported them lower. The prices received index similarly surged to 17.6, its highest point since April 2012.
The reading of expected business conditions six months ahead held steady at an elevated 49.7, which represented the highest degree of optimism since January 2012.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes, which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting declines from those reporting gains. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index dates back to 2001. The Action Economics Forecasts can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Monetary Policy in a Time of Uncertainty is the title of today's speech by Fed Governor Lael Brainard and it can be found here.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'16||2016||2015||2014|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA)||6.5||7.6||2.2||-16.8||-2.5||-2.3||11.9|
|General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA)||50.9||48.5||47.3||43.4||48.2||48.9||52.4|
|Number of Employees||-1.7||-12.2||-10.9||-13.0||-5.0||2.7||10.9|
|Average Employee Workweek||-4.2||-7.0||-10.9||-6.0||-5.4||-5.3||1.4s|
|Expectations 6 Months Ahead||49.7||49.7||31.1||10.4||29.0||30.3||40.2|