- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller January 18, 2017
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell to 67 during January (+9.8% y/y) following a revised jump to 69 in December, initially reported as 70. It remained near the highest level since July 2005. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in housing starts.
The index of present conditions in the housing market fell 4.0% to 72 (+5.9% y/y). The index for the next six months declined 2.6% to 76 (+18.8% y/y).
Home builders reported that the traffic index slipped 1.9% to 51 (+15.9% y/y), but still was near the highest level since July 2005.
Amongst the regional indexes, the index for the Northeast fell 8.8% (+10.6% y/y). The index for West posted a 12.8% decline (+2.7% y/y). For the South, the index fell 4.3% (+11.7% y/y). In the Midwest, the index remained steady (11.9% y/y).
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results six over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
|National Association of Home Builders||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'16||2016||2015||2014|
|Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100)||67||69||63||61||61||59||52|
|Single-Family Sales: Present||72||75||69||68||67||64||56|
|Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months||76||78||69||64||67||66||61|
|Traffic of Prospective Buyers||51||52||47||44||45||43||39|