- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller January 19, 2017
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.6 during January from December's 19.7. It was the highest level since November 2014. The latest monthly reading compared to expectations for 15.1 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions Index constructed by Haver Analytics rose to 55.5 this month, the highest level since November 2014. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). This figure is comparable to the ISM Composite Index. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the adjusted Philadelphia Fed Index and real GDP growth.
Most component series strengthened this month. New orders jumped to the highest level since July 2014. Inventories equaled the recovery high, and unfilled orders jumped to a recovery high. Delivery times held steady m/m at an elevated level, indicating slower delivery speeds. Shipments eased following sharp increases from the 2016 low.
The employment series jumped to the highest level since April 2015. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in manufacturing sector payrolls. The average workweek reading eased slightly, but remained up from the negative readings early last year.
Prices paid strengthened to the highest level since July 2011. Prices received also improved sharply.
The future business activity index surged to the highest level since August 2014. The component series exhibited broad-based strength.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in Federal Reserve District III (consisting of southeastern PA, southern NJ and Delaware). The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each diffusion index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "same."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Action Economics figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Philadelphia Fed - Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (%, SA)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'16||2016||2015||2014|
|General Factory Sector Business Conditions||23.6||19.7||8.7||-5.3||4.8||3.6||18.3|
|ISM-Adjusted Business Conditions||55.5||53.6||54.3||45.6||48.2||49.4||53.7|
|Number of Employees||12.8||3.6||-4.1||-3.7||-5.7||3.9||10.5|