- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller January 19, 2017
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.6 during January from December's 19.7. It was the highest level since November 2014. The latest monthly reading compared to expectations for 15.1 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions Index constructed by Haver Analytics rose to 55.5 this month, the highest level since November 2014. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). This figure is comparable to the ISM Composite Index. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the adjusted Philadelphia Fed Index and real GDP growth.
Most component series strengthened this month. New orders jumped to the highest level since July 2014. Inventories equaled the recovery high, and unfilled orders jumped to a recovery high. Delivery times held steady m/m at an elevated level, indicating slower delivery speeds. Shipments eased following sharp increases from the 2016 low.
The employment series jumped to the highest level since April 2015. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in manufacturing sector payrolls. The average workweek reading eased slightly, but remained up from the negative readings early last year.
Prices paid strengthened to the highest level since July 2011. Prices received also improved sharply.
The future business activity index surged to the highest level since August 2014. The component series exhibited broad-based strength.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in Federal Reserve District III (consisting of southeastern PA, southern NJ and Delaware). The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each diffusion index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "same."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Action Economics figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Philadelphia Fed - Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (%, SA)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'16||2016||2015||2014|
|General Factory Sector Business Conditions||23.6||19.7||8.7||-5.3||4.8||3.6||18.3|
|ISM-Adjusted Business Conditions||55.5||53.6||54.3||45.6||48.2||49.4||53.7|
|Number of Employees||12.8||3.6||-4.1||-3.7||-5.7||3.9||10.5|