- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller January 26, 2017
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% during December (1.1% y/y) following a revised 0.1% November uptick, initially reported as unchanged. It was the strongest gain since July, and equaled expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of last year, the index rose 1.1%, the weakest rise of the economic expansion.
A steeper interest rate yield curve had the largest positive effect on the leading index last month, followed by higher stock prices, improved consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, a higher ISM new orders index and the leading credit index. Higher initial claims for unemployment insurance contributed negatively.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators increased 0.3% (1.2% y/y) after no change in November. It too was the strongest increase since July. During all of last year, the index rose 1.2% following gains of roughly 2.5% in the prior two years. Each of the component series contributed positively to the coincident index last month, including payroll employment, real personal income less transfers, industrial production and manufacturing & trade sales.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators rose 0.3% (3.0% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. The 3.0% gain during all of last year was on a par with the increases back to 2012. Commercial & industrial loans outstanding, the prime rate, the average duration of unemployment and the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income contributed positively to the index.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio slipped m/m to a record low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
|Business Cycle Indicators (%)||Dec||Nov||Oct||Dec Y/Y||2016||2015||2014|