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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller January 30, 2017
Personal income increased 0.3% (3.5% y/y) during December following a 0.1% November uptick, initially reported as no change. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of 2016, income grew 3.5%, the weakest rise since 2013. Wages & salaries rebounded 0.4% last month (3.6% y/y) after a 0.1% slip. Rental income surged 1.0% (7.3% y/y), but proprietors' income remained unchanged (2.0% y/y). Transfer receipts increased 0.3% (3.3% y/y) as Social Security benefits rose 0.3% (1.8% y/y) and Medicare payments improved 0.2% (4.7% y/y). Unemployment insurance benefits jumped 2.1%, but were down 8.2% y/y.
Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.1% rise. Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay edged 0.1% higher (2.1% y/y).
Personal consumption expenditures jumped an expected 0.5% (4.5% y/y). It was the strongest rise in three months. During all of last year expenditures rose 3.8%. In constant dollars, spending improved 0.3% (2.8% y/y). Real durable goods purchases increased 1.4% (8.1% y/y) as motor vehicle purchases rebounded 2.4% (8.7% y/y). Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles strengthened 1.0% (11.7% y/y), and furniture & appliance buying ticked 0.1% higher (5.4% y/y). Real nondurable purchases remained unchanged (2.1% y/y). Real apparel purchases jumped 0.5% (0.8% y/y), but real gasoline spending fell 0.3% (-2.2% y/y), down for the third straight month. Real spending on services rose 0.3% (2.2% y/y) as housing & utilities outlays jumped 1.2% (2.3% y/y). Real recreation services spending also increased 1.5% (0.3% y/y), but food services & accommodations outlays rose 1.1% (+0.6% y/y).
The personal savings rate declined to 5.4%, its lowest level since March 2015. Personal saving declined 8.0% y/y.
The chain price index increased 0.2% (1.6% y/y). The nondurable goods price index rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y). The durable goods price index was little changed (-2.5% y/y), while the services price index gained 0.2% (2.4% y/y). The price index excluding good & energy inched 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y).
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database. Further detail is in USNA.
|Personal Income & Outlays (%)||Dec||Nov||Oct||Dec Y/Y||2016||2015||2014|
|Wages & Salaries||0.4||-0.1||0.5||3.6||4.2||5.1||5.1|
|Disposable Personal Income||0.3||0.1||0.5||3.7||3.8||3.8||5.1|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.5||0.2||0.4||4.5||3.8||3.5||4.4|
|Personal Saving Rate||5.4||5.6||5.7||6.1
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.2||0.1||0.3||1.6||1.1||0.3||1.5|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.0||0.1||1.7||1.7||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.8||2.7||3.2||2.9|
|Real Disposable Income||0.1||0.0||0.2||2.1||2.7||3.5||3.5|