- US: Advance Trade & Inventories (Feb)
- Sweden: Retail Trade, PPI, International Trade (Feb); Iceland: CPI (Mar)
- Turkey: International Reserves (Feb); Mauritius: Wage Rate Index, LFS (Q4); Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Jan); Palestine: BOP (Q4); UAE: Fuel Prices (Apr); Israel: Construction Starts & Completions (Q4); South Africa: Construction Survey (Q1); Tanzania: Trade (Q4)
- Brazil: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Robert Brusca January 30, 2017
The EU area index compiled by the EU Commission fell in January while the EMU area index rose for the fourth month in a row. The EU index sits in the 77th percentile of its historic queue of values while the EMU index resides in the 75th percentile of its queue of values. Despite the monthly oscillations, the EMU indices are in uptrend for each of the four largest EMU economies.
By sector, retailing and consumer confidence are the two relative strongest sectors; they have the highest queue standings in their respective upper 80th percentiles. The industrial sector has a 77th percentile standing in its historic queue for all of EU. Services and construction lag with standings in their respective 60th percentiles.
The EMU 17 nations (Ireland is a late reporter and excluded here, dropping the number of reporters to 16) show only four members with their EU sentiment index dropping in January. However, the two largest EMU economies France and Germany saw declines along with Malta and Estonia. This is up from three in December but less than the six nations that saw sentiment declines in November.
Seven of the 16 reporters in this table show standings of their EU Commission indices in the top 20% of their historic queues. Only Greece is below its 50th percentile; in fact no member in this table- as of January 2017- has a standing has low as its 60th percentile (except Greece).
Most of the EMU Commission indices show slippage since mid-2015 but have reversed that pattern in the last four to five months. Most of the sector indices are stable to stronger although momentum is tempered even when it is present. The EMU is doing better but this is no growth surge.
Inflation is starting to rise. With the economy showing somewhat firmer readings, the probabilities have begun to tilt toward the ECB removing stimulus. However, inflation is largely a manifestation of oil and growth is still not on solid footing even if it has spread and firmed somewhat. The ECB will soon find itself under enormous pressure from Germany where inflation is rising faster than it is in the EMU region as a whole and where economic readings are stronger as well. The ECB has an inflation only mandate; with oil pushing inflation up soon, ECB President Mario Draghi will be out of counter arguments against ending his special stimulus programs and will be pressured to actually hike rates. Conditions are changing in the EMU. But they are changing in such a way as to make policy decisions as difficult as possible.