- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller January 31, 2017
The Conference Board Index of Consumer Confidence indicated that its headline consumer confidence index for January declined to 111.8, following its December rise to a 15-year high. Also, December's reading was revised down slightly to 113.3 from 113.7. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a modest decline to 113.0 in January. During the past thirty years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The decline in confidence in January was due to a weakened expectations index which fell to 99.8 following a December surge to 106.4. The present situation reading strengthened to 129.7 and made up much of the prior month's decline to 123.5.
Respondents indicating that business conditions are "good" improved slightly to 29.2%, while those saying business conditions are "bad" fell to 16.1%. Respondents stating that jobs are "plentiful" increased to 27.4%, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" fell to 21.5%. This change in views on labor market conditions led to a modest increase in the labor market differential (a reliable indicator of the unemployment rate) to 5.9 percentage points from 3.3 percentage points in January and was close to the high for the current expansion.
In contrast to consumers' views on the current environment, their outlook for both business and labor market conditions backpedaled following December's rise. The percentage expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell to 23.1% following a surge to 24.7 in December. For labor markets, the percentage expecting more jobs in the months ahead fell to 19.8% following a December jump. And the percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to rise fell to 18.0% and reversed virtually all of its December rise to 21.5%.
Expectations for the inflation rate in 12 months jumped to 4.9%, the highest level since September. Moreover, consumers are looking for more interest rate increases. The percentage expecting higher interest rates over the next twelve months surged to 72.2%, the highest reading in 12 months and a marked increase from 52.3% six months ago.
Deterioration in the headline index was due mostly to lessened optimism amongst the 35-54 years age group. Confidence among individuals over aged 55 slipped. Respondents under age 35 registered slightly improved confidence following a sharp December retrenchment.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Y/Y %||2016||2015||2014|
|Consumer Confidence Index||111.8||113.3||109.4||14.3||99.8||98.0||86.9|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||127.3||124.4||138.5||2.9||122.4||116.0||106.6|
|Aged 35-54 Years||113.9||117.0||116.0||11.6||106.2||103.9||92.4|
|Over 55 Years||102.1||103.7||90.7||22.9||84.6||84.1||73.8|