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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Strengthen
by Tom Moeller  February 1, 2017

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payroll employment increased 246,000 (1.8% y/y) during January following a 151,000 December gain, revised from 153,000. The increase compared to expectations for a 160,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business payrolls increased 62,000 (1.5% y/y), the strongest rise in six months. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 102,000 (1.6% y/y), the firmest increase since June. Large-sized businesses posted a fairly stable 83,000 increase in jobs (2.7% y/y).

Service-producing payrolls increased 201,000 (2.1% y/y) after a 147,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 71,000 (3.0% y/y), the strongest gain in six months. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities increased 63,000 (1.7% y/y).  Education & health services employment gained 47,000 (2.5% y/y). Hiring in the leisure & hospitality sector increased 17,000 (2.2% y/y). Financial sector payrolls did not rise m/m (1.0% y/y), the weakest result since October 2013.

Goods-producing employment strengthened 46,000, but was unchanged y/y. Construction industry employment increased 25,000 (1.4% y/y) following little growth during Q4'16. Hiring in the factory sector rose 15,000 (-0.2% y/y), the strongest increase since December 2014.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jan Dec Nov Jan Y/Y 2016 2015 2014
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 246 151 226 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 62 11 49 1.5 1.9 2.3 1.9
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 102 68 94 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.7
 Large Payroll (>500) 83 71 84 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3
Goods-Producing 46 4 3 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.5
  Construction 25 4 12 1.4 2.2 5.0 5.0
  Manufacturing 15 3 -9 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 1.3
Service-Producing 201 147 223 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2
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