- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller February 3, 2017
The job market started the new year on a firm footing. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 227,000 (1.5% y/y) following increases of 157,000 and 164,000, previously reported as 156,000 and 204,000. The latest gain was the strongest since September. Expectations had been for a 175,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Data back to 2012 were revised and added slightly to growth in 2016. Average hourly earnings nudged 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y). The December gain was revised down to 0.2% from 0.4%, but the November figure was revised up. A 0.3% increase had been expected. The unemployment rate increased to 4.8% versus an expected 4.7%. It was the highest rate in three months, up from the November low of 4.6%. The total unemployment rate including marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons rose to 9.4% from 9.2%.
The 227,000 increase in payroll employment reflected a 5,000 increase (-0.4% y/y) in factory sector employment, as it followed an 11,000 rise. Jobs increased in both the durable & nondurable goods sectors. Construction sector employment strengthened 36,000 (2.6% y/y), the strongest increase since March. Jobs in the mining sector improved 4,900 (-8.1% y/y), but they remained 27.7% below the September 2014 peak.
Private service sector employment increased 192,000 (2.1% y/y), improved from the 139,000 rise averaged during Q4. Retail trade employment strengthened 45,900 (1.5% y/y) after a 33,500 December rise, following declines in the prior two months. Transportation & warehousing employment eased 4,000 (+2.2% y/y). Employment in the professional & business sector increased 39,000 (2.9% y/y), though that remained down from the 84,000 increase during July. Temporary help jobs rose 14,000 (3.3% y/y) following a 12,800 decline. Leisure & hospitality employment increased 34,000 (2.2% y/y), though it rose 79,000 in May of 2015. Health care & social assistance jobs increased 32,000 (2.5% y/y), though again it fell short of the 79,500 rise in April 2015. Financial activity employment jumped 32,000 (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since October 2005. Information sector employment gained 3,000 (0.1% y/y) after declines in the 7prior three months.
Government sector payrolls fell 10,000 (+0.7% y/y), the fourth straight month of decline. State government jobs were off 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), also the fourth straight monthly shortfall. Local government jobs fell 5,000 (+0.9% y/y), and continued the declines of recent months. Federal government jobs increased 4,000 (1.8% y/y) after a 5,000 rise.
Average hourly earnings in the private sector edged 0.1% higher. Recent weakness in the monthly figures lowered the y/y gain to 2.5% y/y. That reversed the recent acceleration to a December high of 2.8% y/y from 2.1% growth during all of 2014. The shortfall was most notable in the financial services sector where y/y growth slowed to 0.7% from 2.6% during all of last year. In most other sectors, earnings growth was fairly stable and firm, notably in leisure & hospitality where earnings grew 4.2% y/y.
The length of the average workweek held steady m/m at 34.4 hours, lower than the expansion high of 34.6 hours. Aggregate hours worked (employment times hours) increased 0.2% (1.1% y/y), and began the first quarter at the highest level of the economic expansion.
From the household sector employment survey, the higher 4.8% unemployment rate reflected a 458,000 rise (1.3% y/y) in population-adjusted employment and a 586,000 increase (1.1% y/y) in the population-adjusted labor force. The labor force participation rate rose to 62.9%, up from the 62.4% low in September 2015.
By educational attainment, the 7.7% unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma remained up from the expansion low of 6.3%. High school graduates with no college saw the jobless rate tick up m/m to 5.3%, but that was down from 10.3% during all of 2010. Persons with less than a bachelors degree realized a recently steady 3.8% rate of joblessness. Individuals' with a bachelor's degree or higher saw a 2.5% rate of unemployment, stable but below its 2010 high.
The teenage unemployment rose m/m to 15.0%, but was down from 25.9% in 2010. Unemployment amongst 20-24 year olds of 8.3% was below the 15.5% 2010 high. For those over 25 years old, the unemployment rate of 3.9% was down from 8.2% in 2010.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
|Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan Y/Y||2016||2015||2014|
|Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector||34.4||34.4||34.3||34.6||34.4||34.5||34.5|
|Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%)||0.1||0.2||0.0||2.5||2.6||2.3||2.1|
|Unemployment Rate (%)||4.8||4.7||4.6||4.9||4.8||5.3||6.2|