- Egypt: IP (Feb)
- US: Regional Payroll Employment (Mar)
- US: GDP by Industry (Q4)
- Realtors Confidence Index Survey (Mar)
- US: Existing Home Sales (Mar)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite and Services Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar)
- Mexico: National Employment Survey(Mar)
- *Switzerland: House Price Index - Rebased to Q1-2000=100 (Q1)*
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by Sandy Batten February 15, 2017
Industrial production decreased 0.3% m/m (+0.1% y/y) in January following a downwardly revised 0.6% m/m increase in December. The consensus from the Action Economics Survey had looked for an unchanged reading for total production. In January, manufacturing output rose 0.2% m/m (+0.4% y/y), and mining output jumped an outsized 2.8% m/m (+0.4% y/y, its first y/y rise since April 2015) with most mining industries reporting increases. The index for utilities fell 5.7% m/m (-2.7% y/y), due mostly to unseasonably warm weather that reduced the demand for heating, and more than reversed the 5.1% m/m jump in December. Note that monthly data throughout 2016 have been revised to reflect updated seasonal adjustment factors.
The rate of capacity utilization for total industry fell 0.3%-pt to 75.3% in January against a consensus expectation for a reading of 75.5% (which would have been unchanged from the initially reported December figure). The January figure is 4.6%-pts below its long-run (1972-2016) average. The rate of capacity in manufacturing edged up 0.1%-pt in January to 75.1%. This measure has fluctuated in a relatively narrow range for the past 5 months.
In the factory sector, production was significantly restrained by a 2.9% m/m decline in the output of motor vehicles and parts. Apart from this decline, manufacturing output elsewhere rose a solid 0.5%. And nondurable manufacturing production rose 0.6% m/m, led by textiles and chemicals. Production of consumer goods slipped 0.8% m/m (-0.1% y/y) in January following a 1.4% m/m jump in December. The January decline reflected a drop in both consumer energy products (-6.5% m/m) and consumer durables (again led by auto weakness). Production of business equipment edged up 0.1% m/m (1.2% y/y) on top of a 0.8% m/m gain in December. Output of transit equipment fell 1.5% m/m while production of IT equipment jumped 1.0% m/m. And production of construction supplies jumped 0.9% m/m (0.6% y/y) after having fallen 0.5% m/m in December.
The drop in materials output in January was dominated by a 1.4% m/m decline in production of energy, offsetting a 1.4% m/m rise in December. Output of non-energy materials rose 0.5% m/m after a 0.3% m/m decline in December.
In the special industrial output groupings, output in high-technology industries was unchanged m/m in January following a 0.7% m/m increase in December. Output excluding that in high-tech industries was up 0.3% m/m in January on top of a 0.1% m/m increase in December.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
|Industrial Production (SA, % Change)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan Y/Y||2016||2015||2014|
|Capacity Utilization (%)||75.3||75.6||75.2||75.7||75.4||76.7||78.2|