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- Realtors Confidence Index Survey (Mar)
- US: Existing Home Sales (Mar)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite and Services Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar)
- Mexico: National Employment Survey(Mar)
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by Carol Stone, CBE February 15, 2017
Total retail sales and spending at restaurants increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y) in January following a 1.0% December rise, which was revised from 0.6%. A more modest 0.1% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Sales at motor vehicles & parts dealers accounted for the January slowdown in the total; these fell 1.4% (5.8% y/y), after their sizable 3.2% gain in December. The decline compared to a 4.4% decrease in unit sales of light vehicles. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.8% (4.7% y/y). clearly more than December's a 0.4% rise. A 0.4% increase had been expected. Sales at gasoline service stations again lifted retail spending last month, as they went up 2.3% (13.9% y/y); December's gas stations sales increase was revised from 2.0% to 3.2%. In the CPI array for January, gasoline prices are seen to have risen 7.8% in the month. Retail sales excluding both auto dealers & gas stations rose 0.7% (3.8% y/y) in January following a 0.1% rise.
In other discretionary spending categories, furniture store sales were flat in January (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.9% fall in December. In contrast, several other store groups had January gains after a slow December; electronics & appliance store sales rebounded 1.6% (-1.7% y/y) from December's 1.7% decline. Clothing store sales gained 1.0% (0.4% y/y) after December's slim 0.1% rise. General merchandise store sales advanced 0.9% (-1.4% y/y) following a 0.4% decrease. Sporting goods store sales gained 1.8% (-3.7% y/y) after easing 0.2% in December.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.7% (9.4% y/y) in January, similar to December's 0.6% rise. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.4% (+0.4% y/y) following a slippage of 0.2%.
Nonstore retailers had flat sales in January (14.5% y/y), but that followed a 1.9% gain in December.
Sales at food service & drinking places advanced 1.4% (3.4% y/y), following December's 1.1% decline.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast expectations are included in the AS1REPNA database.
|Retail Spending (%)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan Y/Y||2016||2015||2014|
|Total Retail Sales & Food Services||0.4||1.0||0.2||4.9||3.3||2.3||4.2|
|Non-Auto Less Gasoline||0.7||0.1||0.3||3.8||4.2||4.2||4.6|
|Motor Vehicle & Parts||-1.4||3.2||-0.3||5.8||3.9||6.5||6.5|
|Retail Less Autos||0.7||0.6||0.1||4.9||2.6||0.2||3.3|
|Food Service & Drinking Places Sales||1.4||-1.1||1.2||3.4||5.9||8.1||6.1|