- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Carol Stone, CBE February 15, 2017
Total retail sales and spending at restaurants increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y) in January following a 1.0% December rise, which was revised from 0.6%. A more modest 0.1% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Sales at motor vehicles & parts dealers accounted for the January slowdown in the total; these fell 1.4% (5.8% y/y), after their sizable 3.2% gain in December. The decline compared to a 4.4% decrease in unit sales of light vehicles. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.8% (4.7% y/y). clearly more than December's a 0.4% rise. A 0.4% increase had been expected. Sales at gasoline service stations again lifted retail spending last month, as they went up 2.3% (13.9% y/y); December's gas stations sales increase was revised from 2.0% to 3.2%. In the CPI array for January, gasoline prices are seen to have risen 7.8% in the month. Retail sales excluding both auto dealers & gas stations rose 0.7% (3.8% y/y) in January following a 0.1% rise.
In other discretionary spending categories, furniture store sales were flat in January (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.9% fall in December. In contrast, several other store groups had January gains after a slow December; electronics & appliance store sales rebounded 1.6% (-1.7% y/y) from December's 1.7% decline. Clothing store sales gained 1.0% (0.4% y/y) after December's slim 0.1% rise. General merchandise store sales advanced 0.9% (-1.4% y/y) following a 0.4% decrease. Sporting goods store sales gained 1.8% (-3.7% y/y) after easing 0.2% in December.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.7% (9.4% y/y) in January, similar to December's 0.6% rise. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.4% (+0.4% y/y) following a slippage of 0.2%.
Nonstore retailers had flat sales in January (14.5% y/y), but that followed a 1.9% gain in December.
Sales at food service & drinking places advanced 1.4% (3.4% y/y), following December's 1.1% decline.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast expectations are included in the AS1REPNA database.
|Retail Spending (%)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan Y/Y||2016||2015||2014|
|Total Retail Sales & Food Services||0.4||1.0||0.2||4.9||3.3||2.3||4.2|
|Non-Auto Less Gasoline||0.7||0.1||0.3||3.8||4.2||4.2||4.6|
|Motor Vehicle & Parts||-1.4||3.2||-0.3||5.8||3.9||6.5||6.5|
|Retail Less Autos||0.7||0.6||0.1||4.9||2.6||0.2||3.3|
|Food Service & Drinking Places Sales||1.4||-1.1||1.2||3.4||5.9||8.1||6.1|