- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller February 28, 2017
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index recovered to 57.4 in February after a decline to 50.3 in January. The latest figure was the highest since January 2015. The February reading exceeded expectations for 53.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Readings above 50 indicate growth, while those below 50 show declines in activity levels.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. The Haver figure jumped to 57.6, the highest level since December 2014. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between this adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
The employment reading jumped to 57.1, the highest level since October 2014. A strengthened 26% (NSA) of respondents reported higher payroll levels while a reduced 15% reported them lower. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The new orders and production series also improved sharply as did inventories. The order backlog series rose too, but the supplier delivery series fell, indicating faster product delivery speeds.
The prices paid barometer jumped to 68.6, the highest level since September 2014. Forty-two percent of respondents paid higher prices compared to 8% in February 2016. Six percent paid lower prices compared to 24 percent one year earlier.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail, including the ISM-style index, in the SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Feb '16||2016||2015||2014|
|General Business Barometer||57.4||50.3||53.9||49.3||53.1||50.3||60.7|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||57.6||50.0||53.0||47.8||52.0||51.6||59.3|