- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller February 28, 2017
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index recovered to 57.4 in February after a decline to 50.3 in January. The latest figure was the highest since January 2015. The February reading exceeded expectations for 53.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Readings above 50 indicate growth, while those below 50 show declines in activity levels.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. The Haver figure jumped to 57.6, the highest level since December 2014. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between this adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
The employment reading jumped to 57.1, the highest level since October 2014. A strengthened 26% (NSA) of respondents reported higher payroll levels while a reduced 15% reported them lower. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The new orders and production series also improved sharply as did inventories. The order backlog series rose too, but the supplier delivery series fell, indicating faster product delivery speeds.
The prices paid barometer jumped to 68.6, the highest level since September 2014. Forty-two percent of respondents paid higher prices compared to 8% in February 2016. Six percent paid lower prices compared to 24 percent one year earlier.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail, including the ISM-style index, in the SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Feb '16||2016||2015||2014|
|General Business Barometer||57.4||50.3||53.9||49.3||53.1||50.3||60.7|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer||57.6||50.0||53.0||47.8||52.0||51.6||59.3|