- US: Advance Trade & Inventories (Feb)
- Sweden: Retail Trade, PPI, International Trade (Feb); Iceland: CPI (Mar)
- Turkey: International Reserves (Feb); Mauritius: Wage Rate Index, LFS (Q4); Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Jan); Palestine: BOP (Q4); UAE: Fuel Prices (Apr); Israel: Construction Starts & Completions (Q4); South Africa: Construction Survey (Q1); Tanzania: Trade (Q4)
- Brazil: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller March 1, 2017
Disposable personal income, after adjustment for higher prices, fell 0.2% during January following two months of 0.1% increase. It was the first decline since March 2015. The y/y increase fell to 2.0%, and compared to 4.4% y/y growth in January 2015. Nominal disposable income increased 0.3% last month, the same as during December.
Real personal consumption expenditures declined 0.3% and reversed December's increase. Nominal spending improved 0.3%, the same as in December, as expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Constant dollar spending by category included a 0.8% decline (+8.8% y/y) in durable goods purchases which followed a 1.8% jump. Motor vehicle purchases fell 2.3% (+9.6% y/y) and reversed half of the prior month's jump. Real furniture & durable household equipment buying fell 0.9% (+5.0% y/y) and recreational goods & vehicles purchases remained unchanged (+11.7% y/y) following four consecutive months of strong increase. Real nondurable goods purchases were little changed (+2.1% y/y). A 0.5% increase (4.7% y/y) in real foods & beverage spending was offset by a 0.6% decline (+0.1% y/y) in apparel purchases. Real spending on gasoline & energy goods was off 2.3% (-4.6% y/y). Constant dollar spending on services eased 0.2% (+2.0% y/y) as spending on housing & utilities fell 1.1% (+0.9% y/y). Real spending on food services & accommodations offset the decline with a 1.0% rise (2.4% y/y).
A 0.4% increase (4.0% y/y) in personal income was the strongest gain in three months. A 0.3% rise had been expected. Wages & salaries also improved 0.4% (4.5% y/y), the same as in December. Rental income increased 1.0% (7.3% y/y), about as it has for four months. Proprietors' income strengthened 0.8% (3.3% y/y) following little change. Receipts on assets remained unchanged (+2.6% y/y) for a second straight month. Personal transfer receipts increased 0.8% (3.7% y/y), the strongest increase in roughly two years. Social security payments jumped 1.0% (3.3% y/y) while Medicaid payments rose 0.2% (6.2% y/y).
The personal savings rate of 5.5% was down versus 6.2% twelve months earlier. The level of personal saving declined 6.8% y/y.
The chain price index strengthened 0.4%, the strongest rise since June 2009. The y/y rise of 1.9% compares to a 2.5% y/y increase in the CPI. Prices excluding food & energy improved 0.3%, the strongest rise since January 2007. The y/y rise of 1.7% compares to a 2.3% y/y gain in the core consumer price index.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database. Further detail is in USNA.
When Debts Compete, Which Wins? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays (%)||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan Y/Y||2016||2015||2014|
|Wages & Salaries||0.4||0.4||0.2||4.5||4.3||5.1||5.1|
|Disposable Personal Income||0.3||0.3||0.2||4.0||3.9||3.8||5.1|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.2||0.5||0.2||4.7||3.8||3.5||4.4|
|Personal Saving Rate||5.5||5.4||5.7||6.2
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.4||0.2||0.1||1.9||1.1||0.3||1.5|
|Less Food & Energy||0.3||0.1||0.0||1.7||1.7||1.4||1.6|
|Real Disposable Income||-0.2||0.1||0.1||2.0||2.8||3.5||3.5|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||-0.3||0.3||0.2||2.8||2.7||3.2||2.9|