- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller March 8, 2017
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payroll employment increased 298,000 (1.9% y/y) during February, the largest rise since April 2014. It followed a 261,000 January gain, revised from 246,000, and a 201,000 increase during December, revised from 151,000. Expectations had been for a 195,000 February rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 104,000 (1.5% y/y), the strongest rise since June. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 122,000 (1.9% y/y), the firmest increase since January 2014. Large-sized businesses posted a slightly reduced 72,000 increase in jobs (2.6% y/y).
Service-producing payrolls increased 193,000 (2.0% y/y) after a 207,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 66,000 (2.9% y/y), the strongest gain since April 2014. Employment in education & health services increased 40,000 (2.4% y/y), while leisure & hospitality employment also rose 40,000 (2.1% y/y). Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose a weakened 9,000 (1.3% y/y). Financial sector payrolls rose 4,000 (1.9% y/y), but January's rise was revised up sharply to 21,000.
Goods-producing employment surged a record 106,000. Construction industry employment jumped 66,000 (3.4% y/y), the largest rise since February 2006. Hiring in the factory sector strengthened 32,000 (0.4% y/y), the strongest increase since March 2012.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|ADP/Moody's National Employment Report||Feb||Jan||Dec||Feb Y/Y||2016||2015||2014|
|Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s)||298||261||201||1.9%||1.9%||2.3%||2.2%|
|Small Payroll (1-49)||104||79||38||1.5||2.0||2.5||2.1|
|Medium Payroll (50-499)||122||101||87||1.9||1.8||2.2||2.6|
|Large Payroll (>500)||72||81||76||2.6||2.1||2.0||1.9|