- US: Advance Trade & Inventories (Feb)
- Sweden: Retail Trade, PPI, International Trade (Feb); Iceland: CPI (Mar)
- Turkey: International Reserves (Feb); Mauritius: Wage Rate Index, LFS (Q4); Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Foreign Trade (Jan); Palestine: BOP (Q4); UAE: Fuel Prices (Apr); Israel: Construction Starts & Completions (Q4); South Africa: Construction Survey (Q1); Tanzania: Trade (Q4)
- Brazil: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller March 15, 2017
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions for March fell to 16.4 from 18.7 in February. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 15.2. These data, reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflect business conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is comparable to the ISM series. The adjusted figure improved to 54.9 from 54.4. It was the highest level since May 2012. During the last ten years, the index posted a 63% correlation with the change in real GDP.
Performance amongst the index components was mixed this month. New orders eased, but shipments increased. Unfilled orders and delivery times also rose, but inventories fell. The employment index jumped to 8.8, its highest level since April 2015. During the last ten years, there has been a 69% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The average workweek reading also surged to the highest point since March 2012.
The prices paid series eased to 31.0, but remained up sharply versus the readings of 2016 and 2015. A lessened 33.6% of respondents reported paying higher prices, while a reduced 2.7% reported them lower. The prices received index similarly declined to 8.8, its lowest point in three months.
Expectations of business conditions six months ahead fell sharply to 37.4, its lowest point since November. The index was pulled lower by weakened readings for orders, shipments and employment. An earlier decline in expected prices stabilized.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes, which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting declines from those reporting gains. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index dates back to 2001. The Action Economics Forecasts can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar'16||2016||2015||2014|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA)||16.4||18.7||6.5||-1.5||-2.5||-2.3||11.9|
|General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA)||54.9||54.4||50.9||50.4||48.2||48.9||52.4|
|Number of Employees||8.8||2.0||-1.7||-2.0||-5.0||2.7||10.9|
|Average Employee Workweek||15.0||4.1||-4.2||2.0||-5.4||-5.3||1.4s|
|Expectations 6 Months Ahead||37.4||41.7||49.7||25.3||29.0||30.3||40.2|