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- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
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German Federal Debt Levels Fall
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NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
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Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
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EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
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by Tom Moeller March 16, 2017
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index fell to 32.8 during March from an unrevised 43.3 in February. The latest monthly reading compared to expectations for 29.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions Index constructed by Haver Analytics surged to 60.2 this month, the highest level since July 2004. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). This figure is comparable to the ISM Composite Index. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the adjusted Philadelphia Fed Index and real GDP growth.
Despite the decline in the overall business conditions index, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories increased. New orders and delivery times improved just modestly, the latter indicating fairly stable delivery speeds.
The employment series rose to the highest level since November 2014. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in manufacturing sector payrolls. The average workweek reading strengthened significantly to an expansion high.
Prices paid strengthened to the highest level since May 2011. Forty-one percent of respondents (NSA) reported paying higher prices, while none paid less.
The future business activity index increased to the highest level since August 2014. Most component series increased m/m, notably prices paid to its 2011 high.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in Federal Reserve District III (consisting of southeastern PA, southern NJ and Delaware). The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each diffusion index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "same."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Action Economics figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Philadelphia Fed - Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (%, SA)||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar'16||2016||2015||2014|
|General Factory Sector Business Conditions||32.8||43.3||23.6||10.6||4.8||3.6||18.3|
|ISM-Adjusted Business Conditions||60.2||55.6||55.5||50.3||48.2||49.4||53.7|
|Number of Employees||17.5||11.1||12.8||-2.0||-5.7||3.9||10.5|