- Egypt: IP (Feb)
- US: Regional Payroll Employment (Mar)
- US: GDP by Industry (Q4)
- Realtors Confidence Index Survey (Mar)
- US: Existing Home Sales (Mar)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite and Services Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar)
- Mexico: National Employment Survey(Mar)
- *Switzerland: House Price Index - Rebased to Q1-2000=100 (Q1)*
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Fresh Six-Year PMI Highs for Euro Area
The 'fresh six-year high' is a pleasant surprise that continues, but...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Soften
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index fell to 22.0 during April...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Suggest Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 244,000 during the week ended April 15 (-5.1% y/y)...
Japan's 'Trade Trends' Stabilize on an Unstable Foundation
Japan trade trends, broadly considered, seem to be stabilizing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index declined 1.8% last week (-24.9% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller April 3, 2017
Improvement in factory sector momentum is building. The ISM composite index of factory sector activity at 57.0 during Q1'17 was the strongest reading in six years. The March level alone slipped to 57.2 from an unrevised 57.7 in February, but it was the seventh consecutive month above 50, indicating factory sector expansion. Expectations had called for 57.3 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the ISM composite index level and the q/q change in real GDP.
Declines in the production and inventory indexes moved the overall index lower last month. Nevertheless, both remained up for the quarter. The new orders index also slipped in March, but was near the highest level of the economic expansion. The supplier delivery index rose and thus indicated a slower pace of product deliveries.
The employment measure strengthened to 58.9 last month. It's the highest level since June 2011, indicating net-positive jobs growth compared to declines during all of last year. Twenty-seven percent (NSA) of respondents raised employment levels while 11% lowered them. Twelve months earlier, 15% were raising employment. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
Pricing power remains strong. The March prices paid index increased to 70.5, its highest level since May 2011. Forty-seven percent of respondents raised prices, while six percent lowered them. One year earlier, 16% of firms were raising prices.
Amongst the sub-indexes, the new export series increased m/m to 59.0, a nearly three-year high. The imports index eased to 53.5, but was up sharply from twelve months earlier. The order backlog series also strengthened to a nearly three-year high.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates increase. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Mfg (SA)||Mar||Feb||Jan||Mar'16||2016||2015||2014|
|Prices Paid Index (NSA)||70.5||68.0||69.0||51.5||53.5||39.8||55.6|