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Economy in Brief
Fresh Six-Year PMI Highs for Euro Area
The 'fresh six-year high' is a pleasant surprise that continues, but...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Soften
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index fell to 22.0 during April...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Suggest Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 244,000 during the week ended April 15 (-5.1% y/y)...
Japan's 'Trade Trends' Stabilize on an Unstable Foundation
Japan trade trends, broadly considered, seem to be stabilizing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index declined 1.8% last week (-24.9% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller April 17, 2017
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell 4.2% to 68 during April and reversed half of the prior month's increase. Despite the decline, the index remained 17.2% higher y/y. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in housing starts.
The index of present conditions in the housing market declined 3.9% to 74 (+17.5% y/y). The index for conditions in the next six months fell 3.8% to 75 (+21.0% y /y).
Home builders reported that the traffic index eased 1.9% to 52 (25.6% y/y), but remained 18.2% higher y/y.
Amongst the regional indexes, the index for the Northeast fell 15.1% (+9.8% y/y). For the South, the index eased 1.4% (+20.7% y/y). In the Midwest, the index fell 6.9% (+19.6% y/y). The index for the West remained unchanged (14.9% y/y).
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results six over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
|National Association of Home Builders||Apr||Mar||Feb||Apr'16||2016||2015||2014|
|Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100)||68||71||65||58||61||59||52|
|Single-Family Sales: Present||74||77||71||63||67||64||56|
|Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months||75||78||73||62||67||66||61|
|Traffic of Prospective Buyers||52||53||46||44||45||43||39|