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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payroll Gain Weakens
by Tom Moeller  May 3, 2017

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 during April following a 255,000 March rise, revised from 263,000. A 185,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business payrolls increased 61,000 (1.5% y/y), roughly half the increase during March. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 78,000 (2.0% y/y), the weakest increase in six months. Large-sized businesses posted a 38,000 increase in jobs (2.5% y/y), less than half the rise registered in January.

Service-producing payrolls increased 165,000 (2.0% y/y) after a 176,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 72,000 (3.2% y/y), the strongest increase in three years. Education & health care jobs gained 41,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 14,000 increase. Leisure & hospitality employment improved 35,000 (2.1% y/y) following a strengthened 50,000 increase in March. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 5,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 25,000 rise. Financial sector payrolls rose 2,000 (1.9% y/y) following a strengthened 25,000 increase. Jobs in the information industry inched 1,000 higher (-0.4% y/y) following a 7,000 decline.

Goods-producing employment improved 12,000 (1.6% y/y) following a 79,000 jump. Construction industry employment declined 2,000 (+3.2% y/y) after a 44,00 increase while hiring in the factory sector improved 11,000 (0.8% y/y) after a 31,000 rise.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Apr Mar Feb Apr Y/Y 2016 2015 2014
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 177 255 249 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 61 117 91 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.8
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 78 96 94 2.0 1.5 2.3 2.8
 Large Payroll (>500) 38 42 63 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.1
Goods-Producing 12 79 102 1.6 0.8 2.0 2.6
  Construction -2 44 61 3.2 4.1 5.2 4.9
  Manufacturing 11 31 32 0.8 0.2 1.2 1.4
Service-Producing 165 176 147 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2
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