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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Deteriorates
by Tom Moeller  July 31, 2017

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for July declined sharply to 58.9 and reversed its unrevised improvement to 65.7 in June. A rise in the index to 60.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest level was the lowest since April.

Based on these figures Haver Analytics constructs an index that is comparable to the ISM Composite index, to be released tomorrow. This figure fell to 58.0 from 62.2. It also was the lowest level in three months. During the last ten years, there has been a 62% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.

Declines in the component series were widespread, led by new orders which fell to the lowest level since February. The production series also fell to the lowest in three months. More moderates declines were logged by other series, except inventories which rose moderately.

The prices paid index rose to its highest level in three months. Twenty-nine percent of respondents reported paying higher prices while nine percent paid less.

The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail, including the ISM-style index, in the SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) Jul Jun May Jul '16 2016 2015 2014
General Business Barometer 58.9 65.7 59.4 54.6 53.1 50.3 60.7
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer 58.0 62.2 59.4 53.5 52.0 51.6 59.3
  Production 60.8 67.7 63.2 54.1 54.7 52.5 64.5
  New Orders 60.3 71.9 61.4 57.6 55.7 50.4 63.8
  Order Backlogs 57.9 62.8 51.8 54.6 47.4 44.4 54.2
  Inventories 54.9 51.9 55.5 50.6 47.2 52.1 55.9
  Employment 52.6 56.6 57.1 51.8 49.4 50.3 56.0
  Supplier Deliveries 61.5 62.8 59.6 53.2 52.8 52.5 56.5
  Prices Paid 60.9 57.5 57.3 55.1 53.1 46.8 61.0
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