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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Eases
by Tom Moeller  December 6, 2017

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 190,000 (2.0% y/y) during November following an unrevised 235,000 October gain. A 188,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far this year, payroll increases have averaged 208,000 per month after an average 181,000 last year. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private-sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business payrolls in November increased 50,000 (1.3% y/y) and have risen an average of 58,000 this year. Large-sized payrolls increased 41,000 (2.8% y/y), down from 63,000 averaged this year. Medium-sized payrolls strengthened 99,000 (2.4% y/y), improved versus an average 87,000 so far in 2017.

Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 36,000 (2.9% y/y), the weakest increase since July, and down from this year's 49,000 average. Construction sector payrolls fell 4,000 (+4.7% y/y), the first decline since April. Jobs in the factory sector gained an improved 40,000 (1.8% y/y).

Private service-sector payrolls increased a steady 155,000 (1.9% y/y) in November. Professional & business services payrolls rose 47,000 (3.6% y/y), slightly below this year's 63,000 average. The number of leisure & hospitality jobs rose 25,000 (2.4% y/y) following October's 45,000 increase. Education & health services employment rose 54,000 (2.0% y/y), the strongest rise in six months. Financial activities jobs rose just 7,000 (1.7% y/y). The number of trade, transportation and utilities jobs rebounded 36,000 (0.7% y/y) following a 50,000 decline. Employment in the information sector fell 13,000 (-2.7% y/y), where payrolls have been falling since early last year.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Rep Nov Oct Sep Nov Y/Y 2016 2015 2014
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 190 235 96 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 50 67 -28 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.8
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 99 74 55 2.4 1.5 2.3 2.8
 Large Payroll (>500) 41 94 70 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.1
Goods-Producing 36 85 44 2.9 0.8 2.0 2.6
  Construction -4 62 34 4.7 4.1 5.2 4.9
  Manufacturing 40 22 11 1.8 0.2 1.2 1.4
Service-Producing 155 150 52 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2
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