Recent Updates

  • US: New Residential Sales (Apr + Revisions), Final Building Permits (Apr)
  • Germany: Trade in Goods (Mar)
  • Manufacturing PMI: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, US (Flash-May); Composite & Services PMI - US (Flash-May)
  • UK: Producer Price Indexes (Apr), CBI Distributive Trade Survey (Q2)
  • Turkey: Consumer Confidence (May); Israel: Person Nights in Tourist Hotels (Apr); Angola: Oil Statistics (Apr); South Africa: CPI (Apr); UAE: CPI (Apr); Lebanon: Foreign Reserves,
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Strengthens Unexpectedly
by Tom Moeller  January 4, 2018

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls rose 250,000 (2.1% y/y) during December, the largest increase since March. The rise followed little- revised increases of 185,000 and 238,000 in November and October. A 185,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of last year, payroll increases averaged 212,000 per month after an average 181,000 in 2016. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private-sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business hiring in December increased 94,000 (1.4% y/y), above last year's average of 61,000. Medium-sized payrolls gained 100,000 (2.4% y/y), improved versus an average 88,000 in 2017. Large-sized payrolls increased 56,000 (2.8% y/y) versus last year's 63,000 average.

Private service-sector payrolls improved 222,000 (1.9% y/y), the strongest increase since June of last year and up from the 2017 average of 168,000. Professional & business services payrolls surged 72,000 (3.5% y/y), the strongest gain since May. Education & health services employment rose a strong 50,000 (2.0% y/y). The number of trade, transportation and utilities jobs strengthened 45,000 (0.8% y/y), the strongest increase in twelve months. Employment in the leisure & hospitality sector rose 28,000 (2.6% y/y), though that was below last year's 34,000 average. Financial activities jobs surged 19,000 (1.7% y/y), the strongest increase in nine months. Employment in the information sector fell 4,000 (-1.8% y/y), where payrolls have been falling since early 2016.

Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 28,000 (2.7% y/y), the weakest increase since July and down from last year's 44,000 average. Construction sector payrolls increased 16,000 (4.1% y/y), below the 2017 average of 23,000. Jobs in the factory sector rose a tepid 9,000 (1.7% y/y), the weakest increase since July. In the natural resource & mining sector, jobs rose 3,000 (6.1% y/y) following sharp declines in 2015 and 2016. The level of employment there remained down by roughly one-quarter during the last two years.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Dec Nov Oct Dec Y/Y 2017 2016 2015
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 250 185 238 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 94 53 64 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.9
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 100 92 79 2.4 2.1 1.5 2.3
 Large Payroll (>500) 56 41 95 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0
Goods-Producing 28 41 41 2.7 1.9 0.8 2.0
  Construction 16 6 17 4.1 3.6 4.1 5.2
  Manufacturing 9 30 23 1.7 1.0 0.2 1.2
Service-Producing 222 145 197 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3
close
large image