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Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications eased 0.7% (+16.9% y/y) in the week ended December 13, after rising 5.4% (15.9% y/y) in the week ended December 6. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 1.4% (5.6% y/y) in the December 13 week after a drop of 4.1% (+3.5% y/y) in the December 6 week, while applications to refinance a loan declined 2.6% (+41.1% y/y) following a surge of 27.2% (42.2% y/y) in the prior week. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the amounts quoted here are seasonally adjusted.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan was 6.95% in the week ended December 13, up 9bps from 6.86% in the week ended December 6. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose 3bps to 6.32% in the week ended December 13, from 6.29% in the December 6 week. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan rose 9bps to 7.03% in the week ended December 13 from 6.94% in the week ended December 6. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 25bps to 6.21% in the latest week after declining by 50bps to 5.96% in the week ended December 6.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 46.7% in the December 13 week down from 46.8% in the December 6 week. The largest share in recent months was 55.7% the week of September 20. The share of applications for ARMs was 5.3% in the latest week, unchanged from the December 6 week. The last time the share was 5.3% was in the week ended February 25, 2022.

The average loan size in the December 13 week was $376,100, up 2.1% (4.4% y/y) from $368,200 in the week ended December 6. The average size of an application for a loan to purchase a house was up 2.2% (2.3% y/y) to $425,400 in the December 13 week from $416,200 in December 6 week, while the average size of an application to refinance an existing loan increased 2.0% (16.4% y/y) to $319,900 in the latest week from $313,600 in the December 6 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.



- Applications to purchase a house rose, while applications to refinance declined.
- Slight increase in rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans.
- Average loan size rises modestly.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Eased in the December 13 Week

Robert Brusca

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**UK industry turns a corner for the worse…**
The report on the United Kingdom industrial sector survey in December from the CBI is a crushing blow to anyone looking for recovery to take hold in the United Kingdom led by the industrial sector. The report shows significant, substantial, and even enormous deterioration in December in metrics involving total orders export orders and expected volume over the next three months. There is no silver lining here and, in fact, to make matters worse in the face of all of this weakness and expected weakness… average prices expected over the next three months move up sharply in December compared to what had been expected in November.

**Total orders** declined to reach a reading of -40 in December from -19 in November. Export orders in December slipped to -37 after logging -27 in November. The only thing close to a silver lining here is that the stocks of finished goods have a reading of 20 slightly lower than 21 in November indicating that inventories are not piling up at the moment and adding to and more horrific inventory cycle. Nonetheless diffusion readings on stocks of ‘20’ and ‘21’ are quite high.

**Looking ahead**
In the looking ahead category, we have output volume for the next three-months fall to a reading of minus 31 from plus 9 in November. This is a really sharp slowdown that leaves the output volume series in the 2.3 percentile of its queue of data back to 1992, an extremely low reading. Average prices for the next three-months at the same time take on a diffusion value of 23, up from 11 in November after having got to zero in October.  The reading of plus 23 in December has an 87-percentile standing, an extremely high level indicating that not only is growth in trouble but that inflation, or at least expected inflation, is back. 

**A drop in expected output of historic proportions**
The drop in expected output three-months ahead is a 40-point shift month-to-month (to -31 from +9) on data back to 1990. This is the second worst shift in the monthly reading in this survey, surpassed only during Covid in April of 2020. That is especially shocking since, at that time, there was a specific event to account for the shock-shift in expectations, unlike now. Now, the UK faces a period of domestic political stability, a world with global political shifts in progress in other countries – a changing of the geopolitical guard - and economic struggling as well as ongoing war in Ukraine and a worsening of instability in the Middle East. But this CPI reading is a horrific decline to impact one month’s reading. Meanwhile, most of those background events are not new and have been in progress. It appears that some watershed has been passed that businesses can no longer ignore. 

**Dilemma at the BOE**
Of course, the Bank of England has flipped the switch and has been cutting interest rates. And at its last meeting while it cut rates there was an accompanying message that it might be a while before the bank cut rates again. And now the bank is being put in a real dilemma because the state of the economy seems to call for rate reductions while the inflation background seems to call for rate increases. Welcome to the wild whacky world of central banking!

**Weakness across the board**
The percentile standings of the various categories show total orders at a 6.5-percentile standing, extremely weak with export orders at a 14-percentile standing, stocks -while not changing much month-to-month - have an 89.6-percentile standing. As noted, the output volume for the next three-months has a 2.3-percentile standing with prices expected over the next three months at an 87-percentile standing. There's nothing here that's good news and nothing that is going to make policy making in the United Kingdom any easier. It's certainly going to make life for the new government much more difficult and policy at the Bank of England much more contentious. It's definitely not a good way to end the old year and to usher in a new one but reality is what it is and in the United Kingdom the reality has just turned quite sour.  


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United Kingdom

UK Industry Sees a Bleak Future 

Tom Moeller

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The Housing Market Index, compiled by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo, was unchanged at 46 in December (+24.3% y/y). It remained below the break-even point of 50, where it’s been since May. The index remains below a July 2023 high of 56 and a November 2020 peak of 90.

The rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.65% in the first two weeks of December versus 6.81% during all of November. It remained below the high of 7.79% in the last week of October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

The single-family sales measure held steady (+17.1% y/y) at 48 this month. It remained the highest reading since May. The prospective sales index in six months rose 4.8% (46.7% y/y) to 66 from 63 in November. It was the highest level since April 2022. The traffic of prospective buyers’ index eased 3.1% (+29.2% y/y) to 31 in December from 32 in November which had been the highest level since April.

Housing performance across the country was mixed in December. The Northeast index rose 8.8% (12.7% y/y) to 62 from 57. It was the highest level since June. In the South, the index rose 14.3% (23.1% y/y) to 48 in December from 42 in November. The index for the Midwest held steady with November (37.1% y/y) at 48. The index in the West declined 2.6% (+31.0% y/y) to 38 from 39 in November. The index hit a low of 28 in November of last year.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures	
 are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.
 
These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.


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- Overall reading remains highest since April.
- Component measures are mixed.
- Regional indexes also vary.


U.S. Home Builders Index Holds Steady in December

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Total retail sales increased 0.7% (3.8% Y/Y) during November after rising 0.5% in October, revised from 0.4%. September sales rose 0.9%, revised from 0.8% according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.5% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales improved 0.2% (3.2% y/y) last month following a 0.2% October rise, revised from 0.1%. The 1.0% September sales gain was unrevised. A 0.4% November increase was expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 2.6% (6.5% y/y) last month after increasing 1.8% in September. This compares to a 3.0% gain (7.6% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 0.8% October increase.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.4% during November (4.3% y/y) after easing an unrevised 0.1% in October. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.

Elsewhere, sales performance was mixed in November. Online retail sales jumped 1.8% (9.8% y/y) and rose to 21.8% of nonauto retail sales, up from 20.5% one year earlier and 11.2% ten years earlier. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales gained 0.9% (1.4% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.3% (1.2% y/y) after strengthening 2.4% in October. Furniture & home furnishings store sales rose 0.3% (0.7% y/y) following a 0.7% decline. Building materials & garden equipment store sales increased 0.4% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.8%. Gasoline service station sales improved 0.1% (-3.9% y/y), the same as in October, even though prices fell 1.7%.

Working lower, miscellaneous store sales, which account for roughly two percent of total sales, fell 3.5% in November (+0.8% y/y) after a 0.8% October decline. Clothing & accessory store sales eased 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) after rising 0.4%. General merchandise store sales slipped 0.1% last month (+3.1%y/y) after holding steady in October. Within that category, department store sale fell 0.6% (+1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% slip.

In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales were steady in November (+1.8%) after a 1.1% October fall. Food & beverage store sales were off 0.2% last month but rose 1.8% y/y.

Consumers’ interest in dining out diminished last month. Restaurant & drinking place sales fell 0.4% (+1.9%) in November after seven consecutive monthly increases.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.


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- Year-to-year rise is largest in 2024.
- Motor vehicle sales stay strong.
- Growth in nonauto purchases reflects robust online sales.

U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen in November

Sandy Batten

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Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.1% m/m (-0.9% y/y) in November after a downwardly revised 0.4% monthly decline in October (previously 0.3% m/m). This was the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.3% m/m increase. Manufacturing output increased 0.2% m/m (-1.0% y/y), the first monthly gain in three months, led by a 3.5% m/m jump in the production of motor vehicles and parts. Mining output fell 0.9% m/m (-1.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. The 0.3% monthly increase previously reported for October was revised down to a 0.1% m/m decline. Utilities output slumped 1.3% m/m (+0.1% y/y) in November, offsetting the 1.3% m/m increase in October, which was revised up from 0.7%.

In the manufacturing sector, output of durables goods increased 0.7% m/m (-2.2% y/y) in November following a 1.6% monthly decline in October. In addition to the jump in motor vehicle production, output of wood products increased 1.0% m/m, production of nonmetallic metal products rose 1.3% m/m, machinery output rose a solid 2.1% m/m, and furniture production increased 2.0%. By contrast, production of aerospace and other transportation equipment fell 2.6% m/m, production of fabricated metal products declined 0.6% m/m, and production of computers and electronic products dipped 0.3% m/m. 
Output of nondurable goods fell 0.3% m/m (+0.5% y/y) in November, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Output of apparel and leather goods slumped 2.1% m/m and petroleum production fell 1.6% m/m.

Output of selected high-technology industries increased 0.3% m/m (+7.4% y/y) in November, a slowdown from an 0.8% monthly gain in October. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries increased 0.2% m/m, the first monthly increase in the past three months. Manufacturing output excluding the jump in motor vehicle production fell 0.1% m/m in November, the third consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing output excluding production of motor vehicles and selected high-tech industries also fell 0.1% m/m in November, the third consecutive monthly decline.

The 1.3% monthly decline in utilities production reflected a 1.2% m/m drop in electric power generation and a 2.3% m/m slump in natural gas distribution, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months.

Capacity utilization stepped down to 76.8% in November, a rate that is 2.9%-points below its long-run (1972–2023) average and the lowest rate since April 2021, from a downwardly revised 77.0% in October (previously 77.1%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had estimated an increase to 77.3%. In the manufacturing sector, utilization was 76.0%, up marginally from 75.9% in October, which was revised down from 76.2%.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.


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- Total industrial production fell 0.1% m/m, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.2% m/m while mining fell 0.9% and utilities output slumped 1.3%.
- Small downward revision to October.
- A modest increase had been expected for November.


U.S IP Unexpectedly Fell Again in November

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**The Zew** reading from the survey of financial experts in Germany produces a view of a weaker economic situation in the Euro-Area and in Germany but with some improvement in the United States. The degree of improvement is small for the US and the deterioration is small for Germany. The index ranking falls to -93.1 from -91.4 for Germany, however, for the Euro-Area the setback is considerably larger to a reading of -55.0 from a reading of -43.8 in November. As a result of  these shifts on the month, the queue percentile standing for the Euro-Area has slipped to 27.9%, Germany remains extremely weak at a 2.7 percentile reading, while the US reading stands much stronger, at 48.2% just below its historic median which occurs at a ranking of 50%.

**Expectation assessments for Germany** and the US show opposite movements with Germany moving up to 15.7 from 7.4 in November while the US slips back to 8.9 in December from 13.3 in November. The expectations readings are not as depressed on a ranking basis as the current statistics are, with Germany moving up to a 44.4-percentile standing and the US slipping back to a 58.1-percentile standing. The US ranking is still above its historic median reading. Improvement for Germany brings the December reading up close to its six-month average and above its three-month average.

**Inflation expectations** continue to fall in the Euro-Area and in Germany. In the Euro-Area the fall is relatively sharp to a reading of -23.9 from -13.4 in November; for Germany it's a fall to -25.7 in December from -14.7 in November. The US sees an increase in inflation expectation to plus 12.6 in December from plus 2.7 in November, giving it two straight months of net positive readings on inflation expectations. The queue standings for the period put Euro-Area expectations at a 19-percentile standing, with Germany close by at an 18.1 percentile standing, compared to the US at a 29.6 percentile standing. All of these are below their historic medians, but the US clearly is showing more of a tendency toward inflation in the view of the Zew financial experts.

**Short term interest rate** expectations have weakened in the Euro-Area as they have moved up in the United States, which is what you would expect with the shifts in inflation expectations that have been recorded by the Zew experts. The Euro-Area has a ranking of current short term rate expectations at 1.1%, an extremely low ranking, while in the US has short term rate expectations only at 6%, still extremely low.   

**Long term rate** expectations for Germany have strengthened to a diffusion reading of -3.2 from a reading of -13.3 and for the US they've strengthened more sharply moving into positive territory at +11.4 up from -0.6 in November. The long-term rate expectations for Germany have a 10.7-percentile standing, while for the US the standing is approximately double at 20.5-percentile. Both of these, of course, are still quite low and well below their historic medians that would occur at a ranking of 50%.

**Stock market** expectations produce positive diffusion readings across the board but a weakening ranking for the Euro-Area, for Germany, and for the US. While the US has the strongest net diffusion reading and the strongest ranking, it also has the largest step back from November to December as US stock market expectations fall to 31.9 from 53.5. In the case of Germany, they fall to 13.3 from 17.8; for the Euro-Area stock market expectations dropped to 16.5 from 21.9. The Euro-Area ranks at 10.9 percentile, with Germany at the 8.2-percentile level, they compare badly to the US at a ranking of 56.4 percentile, above its historic median. 

**The Euro-Area** reading is continuing to be quite weak, while U.S. data have been stronger, and we see this reflected in exchange rate movements with the dollar firming. However, economies don't simply move in a linear fashion and while US retail sales recorded on Tuesday, we're quite a bit stronger than expected US industrial production for November unexpectedly stepped back, keeping the US manufacturing sector on the same week footing that we continue to see reported globally. That weakness was well demonstrated in the S&P manufacturing PMIs as reported yesterday. The global economy continues to struggle and to be supported by its services sector. 






Germany

German Zew Index Shows a Pulse but Remains Weak

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The General Business Conditions Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York unexpectedly fell to 0.2 in December after surging to an unrevised 31.2 in November from -11.9 in October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a retreat to 9.8. The percentage of respondents reporting an improvement in business conditions declined to 25.8% from 40.9% in November while the percentage reporting a decrease jumped to 25.6% from 9.7%. The survey responses were collected between December 2 and December 9.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. The reading fell to 51.3 this month and reversed most of its November surge to 56.6. A level of 50 is the breakeven point between expansion and contraction. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each).

Declines in the new orders and shipments indexes led the component weakness in December. The new orders index fell to 6.1 after surging to 28.0, as a lessened 27.3% of respondents reported increases in orders and a higher 21.2% indicated declines. The shipments index declined to 9.4 after jumping to 32.5 from -2.7 in October, as a lessened 30.7% of respondents reported increases and an increased 21.2% indicated declines. Unfilled orders improved -8.4, its third consecutive negative reading, after falling to -10.3 in November. The inventories index surged to 10.5 after rising to 1.0 from -7.5 in October, indicating the strongest inventory accumulation in roughly two years. The delivery times index fell to -7.4 after surging to 3.1 in November, suggesting the shortest delivery times in five months.

Employment deteriorated sharply in December and the length of the workweek shortened substantially. The jobs index declined to -5.8 this month after falling to 0.9 from 4.1 in October. A lessened 7.9% of respondents reported an increase in employment while a higher 13.8% reported a decline. The average workweek index fell to -3.9, suggesting a decline in hours-worked from 6.1 in November. It was the weakest reading in four months.

Inflation indicators declined sharply in December. The prices paid index fell to 21.2 from 27.8, the weakest reading in twelve months. Twenty-four percent of respondents reported paying higher prices in December versus 27.8% in November while 3.2% reported paying lower prices, up from zero in November. The prices received index declined to 4.2, also the lowest since July 2023, from 12.4 in November. A lessened 11.6% received higher prices, the weakest reading in six months. 

Firms grew less grew less optimistic that business conditions would continue to improve in the months ahead. The future business activity index fell to the lowest level since August with 42% of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 54.8% in October. Growth in orders and employment is expected to slow. The expected price index fell sharply and capital spending plans weakened slightly.

The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from the components. The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.



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- The headline index reverses most of last month’s gain.
- Component weakness is widespread including new orders, shipments & employment.
- Pricing power weakens.


U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines Sharply in December

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The S&P flash PMI readings show strengthening for the composites across the board except for Australia for the early reporters presented in this table in December. However, it's very much a performance that rests on the services sector that is stronger in each of the reporting countries except Australia, while manufacturing is weaker in all reporting countries in December, except in Japan. 

**Sequential weakness over the last three-months**
Sequential data show a clear weakening over three-months compared to six-months for all the entries in the table except for the US composite and the US services sector. Over six months conditions are much more mixed with ten of the 21 readings showing a stronger result over six-months compared to 12-months. Over 12-months compared to 12-months ago there was a broad strengthening with only four reports of weaker activity on that basis: for manufacturing in Germany, manufacturing in Australia, services in the United Kingdom, and services in the United States. All other entries show strengthening over 12-months compared to 12-months ago (based on averages).

**Sector performance-rankings**
The sector standing is indicated by the queue rankings that position the December entries in a string of data over five years. They show only six of the 21 rankings above 50% indicating that only six of them lie above their medians for this 5-year period.  Two composite rankings are above their medians: the US with the ranking in the 78th percentile and Japan, with its ranking in its 60th  percentile. Those are driven by strong service sector rankings, in the case of Japan services that have a 56.7 percentile standing, in the case of the US services at a 72.8 percentile standing. German services have an above median standing at 51.7% while for the European Monetary Union the service sector has a 55.0 percentile standing. But in the case of the Monetary Union with a 20-percentile standing for manufacturing the composite only reaches to 40% (Germany does even worse).

**Covid post-Covid – a sad tale for growth**
This has been a five year period of exceptional weakness with the composite rankings in all but two countries below their five-year medians  The United States and Japan weaker than they were five years ago in January of 2020 just before COVID began, manufacturing sectors are weaker than in January 2020 everywhere except in Japan; only the US and Japan have service sectors that show gains compared to January 2020. Manufacturing has been exceptionally weak during this period. This group of countries shows a current average manufacturing standing in its 22nd percentile, compared to services with an average standing across countries in the table at its 48.7 percentile, and the composite reading currently at an average standing in its 41.9 percentile.

**Summing up**
Globally conditions are weak and in December the readings continued to be uneven, and this is at the end of a three-month period when conditions show broad weakening compared to six-months. This is not exactly the way central banks had hoped to end the year. Apparently 2024 will end with monetary policy still broadly in an easing cycle but perhaps, these are becoming easing cycles that are entering a less vigorous stage with inflation that has come down from its peaks but has showed signs of being stubborn above the targets that central banks have set for inflation. And it's a period in which economic growth remains weak and it's not showing signs of acceleration. However, is it also -strangely – a time with some good news, when labor markets show full or close to full employment! Ominously the Baltic dry index, which is an index of trade volume globally, shows the trade volume momentum has been slipping in recent weeks - another disappointing sign as the year draws to an end.


Europe

Flash PMI Readings Tick Up but Remain Weak

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Sales of existing homes increased 4.8% (6.1% y/y) to 4.15 million (SAAR) during November from an unrevised 3.96 million in October. The gain followed a 3.4% October rise and a 1.3% September decline. The rise accompanied an increase in the effective 30-year mortgage interest rate to an average 6.81% from 6.43% in October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected November sales of 4.09 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) eased 0.2% (+4.7% y/y) in November to $406,100 from 406,800 in October, revised from $407,200. Prices remained below the 426,900 high this past June. The median price of an existing single-family home slipped 0.2% (+4.8% y/y) to $410,900 in November from $411,700 in October. The median price of condos and co-ops slipped 0.1% (+2.8% y/y) to $359,800 in November from $360,300 in October.

Sales of existing homes rose 8.5% (6.3% y/y) to 510,000 in the Northeast after a 2.2% October gain. Sales in the Midwest jumped 5.3% both m/m and y/y to 	1.00 million after a 6.7% October increase. Sales in the South gained 5.6% (3.3% y/y) to 1.87 million after a 2.9% October gain. Holding steady at 770,000 (+14.9% y/y) were sales in the West, following a 1.3% October increase.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) fell 2.9% (+17.7% y/y) to 1.33 million after a 0.7% October increase. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) fell to 3.8 months from 4.2 months in October. This figure has generally risen since February. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Sales rise to highest level since March.
- Monthly sales rise in three of four regions of the country.
- Median price edges lower.


U.S. Existing Homes Sales Surge in November

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The Current General Activity Diffusion Index declined to -16.4 during December after falling to -5.5 in November, according to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, indicating further deterioration in factory sector activity this month. A reading of 2.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sixteen percent of the firms reported increases in general activity in December while 32.7% reported decreases. Responses to this month's survey were collected between December 9 and December 16.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index declined to 48.6 in this month from 49.2. It was the lowest reading in six months, down from a high of 54.9 in July.

The new orders index fell to -4.3 this month after declining to 8.9 in November, while the shipments series declined to -1.9 after falling to 4.5. Surging higher, however, was the unfilled orders index to 18.9, its highest level since March 2022. The delivery times reading jumped to 11.6 after weakening to -2.1 and the inventories index declined to -2.3 after rising to 5.4 last month.

The current employment index declined to 6.6 in December after rising to 8.6 in November, suggesting an overall increase in employment. Seventeen percent of respondents reported increases in employment last month while an increased 10.6% reported declines. The average employee workweek index collapsed to -8.2 and reversed most of its rise to 17.4 in November.

Inflation indicators were mixed this month. The prices paid index rose to 31.2 after falling to 26.6 last month. The index is up from a low of 3.7 in March. A higher 34.0% of respondents reported increases in input prices in December while 2.8% reported decreases. To the downside, the prices received index declined to 7.3 after falling to 14.3 in November It was down from a September high of 24.6. A lessened 12.0% of respondents reported increases in prices while an increased 4.7% reported declines.

The future activity index declined to 30.7 in December after surging to 56.6 during November. The reading hit its low of -4.0 in January. Most of the components declined, including new orders, shipments, order backlogs and employment. The expected capital spending measure fell sharply. Inventories and the length of the workweek increased. The expected prices paid series fell from the highest level since April 2022, but prices received increased. 

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.



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- Current General Activity Index is lowest since April 2023.
- New orders, shipments & employment weaken.
- Prices paid index improves but prices received falls sharply.


U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Declines in December

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 22,000 to 220,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended December 14, from the previous week’s unrevised level of 242,000.  The Action Economic Forecast Survey had expected claims to be 231,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500 in the December 14 week, an increase of 1,250 from 224,250 in the previous week. As mentioned last week, weekly claims figures can be distorted by the timing of Thanksgiving and the associated difficulty that presents to seasonally adjusting weekly data.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries was 1.874 million in the week ended December 7, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s level of 1.879 million, revised from 1.886 million. This total number of beneficiaries is also known as “continuing claims.” The 4-week moving average was 1.880 million in the week ended December 7, down 6,000 from 1.886 million in the previous week. The insured unemployment rate, that is, the total number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment, was unchanged at 1.2% in the week ended December 7.

Unemployment rates vary markedly across states. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended November 30, the insured unemployment rate was highest in New Jersey (2.46%), followed by California (2.30%), Washington (2.20%), Minnesota (2.11%), and Alaska (2.05%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.39%), followed by Virginia (0.40%), South Dakota (0.43%), Alabama (0.46%), and New Hampshire (0.48%). Unemployment rates in other major states include Illinois (1.74%), New York and Massachusetts (both at 1.73%), Pennsylvania (1.70%), Michigan (1.35%), Texas (1.17%), and Ohio (0.95%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.


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- Initial claims were lower than expected in the week ended December 14.
- Continuing claims remained steady.
- The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%.


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