Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020404a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose unexpectedly from the prior week&#39;s level that was revised up slightly. 
Some the increase was due to filings for extended unemployment insurance benefits. 
The four-week moving average of claims rose sharply to 403,750, the highest level since January. 
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply in the latest week. The prior week&#39;s level was revised down. 
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.8%, the highest level since December.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">03/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">03/23/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>460.0</td>
<td>396.0</td>
<td>19.8%</td>
<td>408.0</td>
<td>302.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,608</td>
<td>44.7%</td>
<td>3,031</td>
<td>2,127</td>
<td>2,187</td>
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose unexpectedly from the prior week's level that was revised up slightly. Some the increase was due to filings for extended unemployment insurance benefits. The four-week moving average of [...]

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Highest Since December

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The value of construction put in place was unchanged (+3.0% y/y) during November after rising 0.5% in October, revised from 0.4%. A 0.9% decline during September was revised from a 0.1% uptick, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.3% November increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Private construction edged 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y) in November after improving 0.6% in October and a 1.7% September decline, revised from a 0.2% easing. Residential construction also improved 0.1% (3.1% y/y) after a 1.4% October rise and a 3.4% September drop, revised from a 0.4% decline. Single-family building rose 0.3% in November (-0.7% y/y) after 0.4% increases in each of the prior two months. Multi-family unit construction declined 1.3% (-9.5% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Home improvement building rose 0.4% (13.4% y/y) after strengthening 3.1% in October and an 8.1% September drop, revised from a 1.4% decline.

Nonresidential private construction eased slightly (+1.7% y/y) in November after an unrevised 0.3% October decline. Lodging construction weakened 0.6% (-5.2% y/y) while office building fell 0.2% (-1.6% y/y). Commercial construction improved 0.1% (-9.6% y/y) and healthcare building weakened 0.6% (-3.7% y/y). Educational construction fell 0.5% (+1.1% y/y) and amusement & recreation building eased 0.1% (-1.7% y/y). Transportation outlays improved 0.9% in November (10.3% y/y) while communication spending increased 1.0% (-3.0% y/y). Power construction rose 0.2% (5.0% y/y) while factory construction eased 0.1% (+11.1% y/y).

The value of public construction eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) in November for the second consecutive month. September’s increase was revised to 1.7% from 1.1%. Residential public construction rose 1.6% (12.2% y/y) while nonresidential public construction eased 0.2% (+4.4% y/y). Highway & street construction rose 0.2% (-3.5% y/y). Office building declined 0.7% (+9.6% y/y) while commercial construction dropped 1.6% (+39.2% y/y). Health care building rose 2.8% (10.1% y/y) but education facility building eased 0.2% (+3.0% y/y). Public safety building fell 1.3% (+19.6% y/y) while transportation construction fell 0.5% (+6.6% y/y).

 The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Private construction is little changed as single-family improves but multi-family building declines.
- Nonresidential private construction slips for a second month.
- Public sector construction weakens but highways & street construction improves.

U.S. Construction Spending Holds Steady in November

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 211,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended December 28, down from 220,000 the week before and the smallest number since 209,000 in the April 27 week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for 221,000 in the latest week. The latest four-week moving average of initial claims was 223,250, down from 226,750 the previous week.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – was 1.844 million in the week ended December 21, noticeably less than the 1.896 million the prior week. That earlier amount was revised from 1.910 million reported previously. The latest four-week moving average was 1,870,750, down from 1,877,500 the week before. The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment, eased back to 1.2% in the December 21 week from 1.3% in the December 14 week.

Unemployment rates vary markedly across states. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended December 14, the insured unemployment rate was highest in New Jersey (2.44%), followed by California (2.23%, Minnesota (2.21%), Washington (2.15%) and Rhode Island (2.12%). The lowest rate was in Florida (0.35%), followed by Virginia (0.42%), Alabama (0.43%), Tennessee (0.5%) and New Hampshire (0.51%).  Unemployment rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.02%, Massachusetts (1.87%), New York and Pennsylvania (both 1.72%), and Texas (1.15%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims just 211,000 in Dec. 28 week.
- Continuing claims down 52,000 in Dec.  21 week.
- Insured unemployment rate returns to long-standing 1.2%.

U.S. Jobless Claims Lowest in 8 Months

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications dropped 12.6% (+0.8% y/y) in the week ended December 27, after declining by 10.7% (+3.0% y/y) in the week ended December 20 and by 0.7% (+16.9% y/y) in the week ended December 13. Applications for loans to purchase a house dropped 6.8% (-2.8% y/y) in the week ended December 27, following a decline of 6.7% (-3.7% y/y) in the week ended December 20. Applications to refinance a loan plummeted 23.4% (+10.3% y/y) in the week ended December 27, following a decline of 16.4% (+18.0% y/y) in the week ended December 20. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the amounts quoted here are seasonally adjusted.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan was 7.18% in the week ended December 27, up 10bps from 7.08% in the week ended December 20, and up 23bps from 6.95% in the week ended December 13. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose 6bps to 6.61% in the week ended December 27, after a 23bps rise to 6.55% in the week of December 20. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan rose 16bps to 7.32% in the week ended December 27, after rising 13bps to 7.16% in the December 20 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 11bps to 6.21% in week ended December 27 after rising by 11bps to 6.32% in the week ended December 20.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 39.4% in the week ended December 27, down from 44.3% in the December 20 week and from 46.7% in the December 13 week. The share of applications for ARMs was 5.2% in the latest week, down from 5.5% in the December 20 week and from 5.3% in the week ended December 13.

The average loan size in the December 27 week was $367,800, down 0.8% (+3.2% y/y) from $370,900 in the week ended December 20, which was down 1.4% (+0.9% y/y) from the week ended December 13. The average size of an application for a loan to purchase a house was down 0.3% in each of the last two weeks, to $422,900 (+3.9% y/y) in the December 27 week and to $424,100 (+2.1% y/y) in the December 20 week. The average size of an application to refinance an existing loan declined by 7.0% (+5.7% y/y) to $282,800 in the week ended December 27 and by 4.9% (3.5%), to $304,100 in week of December 20.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications to purchase and to refinance plummeted.
- Rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose by 23bps in the last 2 weeks.
- Average loan size declined in the last 2 weeks.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the Last Two Weeks of December

Robert Brusca

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The readings improve a bit in December, moving the median to 49.7 from a 3-month average of 49.3. The average of manufacturing among reporting Asian contributors have moved up above 50. The BRIC average remains above 50 but has slipped a bit lower on the month.

However, overall, the percentage of reporters that improved month-to-month is only 27.8%. Two thirds improve over three months compared to six-months based on comparing the averages; 22% improve over six months compared to 12-month averages. And two-thirds improved over 12 months compared the 12-month average from one year-ago. This is not a strong record of improving trends based on breadth.

The changes in the medians calculated over 12 months, 6 months and 3 months show that the median readings have been steadily eroding.

The queue standing places an ordinal ranking on each contributor over data since January 2020. Among the 18 reporters in the table, only five have queue standings above their 50% level (above their respective medians calculated over this period). Four of the countries have standings in the 50-60 percentile range with the highest rankings at a 63.3 percentile standing (Taiwan). China, India, Mexico, and Canada (all either BRIC or U.S. MCA members) are the remaining countries with standings above their historic medians.

Eight reporters in the table have PMI values in December that are above the values they posted in January 2020. The strongest reading is reported by Russia, at a gain of 2.9 points (really?) with the weakest, a drop of 9.1 points in France. The U.S., the U.K., Germany, and the euro area all have drops over this period of 2.5 points or more. The most developed countries seem to be having the hardest time during this episode.

PMI standings log a median at 38.3% for reporting countries over the last five years of data. The High-Low percentages find that Mexico, China, and India have standings in the upper 20 percentile of that range (as opposed to their queue percentile) of data. Only the most developed countries and the euro area, Germany, France, the U.S., the U.K., and Brazil have percentile standings below their high-low midpoints (below the 50 mark).

While the U.S. economy is showing signs of ongoing and even improving growth, the rest of the world is not. Even in the U.S., manufacturing is the laggard sector. The graph shows that since early-2023 there has been little improvement.

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Manufacturing PMIs: Ready to Flip the Calendar- Not the Message