Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sandy Batten

260604N4.jpg

260604O4.jpg

Growth of nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) was revised down more than expected in Q1 to 0.3% q/q saar from 0.8% previously and 1.6% in Q4. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.7% quarterly increase in productivity. Compared to a year ago, productivity rose 2.8% y/y in Q1 (revised down from 2.9% previously), up from 2.5% in Q4. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.6% annual rate, likely a reflection of AI and other technology advances. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Growth in nonfarm business output (not quite the same as real GDP) was revised down to 1.0% q/q saar in Q1 from 1.5% in the previous estimate. This was in line with the previously announced downward revision in Q1 real GDP growth to 1.6% from 2.0% in the first estimate. Growth in hours worked was not revised at 0.7%. However, compensation growth was revised down markedly in both Q1 and last year’s Q4. For Q1, compensation growth was revised down to 2.1% from 3.1% in the first estimate. The revision for Q4 was even larger with compensation growth revised to 3.7% from 6.3% previously. These revisions in compensation led to similarly large downward revisions to growth of unit labor costs. Unit labor costs rose 1.8% in Q1 versus 2.3% in the first estimate and 2.1% in Q4 versus 4.6% in the previous estimate. Accordingly, the annual rate of growth of unit labor costs slowed to 0.5% y/y in Q1, the slowest annual pace since Q3 2019 and generally supports what former Fed Chair Powell has noted several times: that the labor market is not a source of the recent rise in US inflation.

Manufacturing productivity growth in Q1 was also revised down, to 3.2% q/q saar from 3.6% in the first estimate. However, in contrast to the revision to nonfarm productivity, the downward revision to manufacturing productivity was due to an upward revision in hours worked with no revision to manufacturing output (up 3.3% in both estimates). Hours worked were revised to unchanged from a 0.4% decline in the first estimate. Growth in manufacturing compensation was also revised down to 5.5% from 6.1%. The larger downward revision to compensation than to productivity resulted in the growth in manufacturing unit labor cost being revised down to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. This was down sharply from 8.8% unit labor cost growth reported for Q4, revised down 9.8%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260604P4.jpg

260604Q4.jpg

- Q1 output per hour growth was revised down to 0.3% q/q saar in the second estimate from 0.8% in the first, reflecting a downward revision to output.
- However, longer-term productivity growth remained solidly well above trend.
- Compensation growth was revised down meaningfully, resulting in a downward revision to unit labor cost growth to 1.8% from 2.3% previously.

U.S. Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Cost Growth Revised Down

260604A1.jpg

260604B1.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 13,000 to 225,000 in the week ending May 30 from a downwardly revised 212,000 in the prior week (previously 215,000). This was the highest weekly reading since the week ending February 7. The four-week average jumped to 214,750 in the week of May 30 from 208,250 in the previous week. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 215,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—fell by 8,000 to 1.777 million in the week ending May 23 from a downwardly revised 1.785 million in the prior week (previously 1.786 million). The four-week average edged up to 1.777 million from 1.773 million. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% for the fourth consecutive week. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending May 16, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.08%), Washington (2.06%), Massachusetts (1.92%) and California (1.89%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Louisiana (0.33%), Florida (0.34%), Alabama (0.38%) and North Carolina (0.39%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.57%), Illinois (1.47%), Pennsylvania (1.27%), and Texas (1.06%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260604C1.jpg

260604D1.jpg

- Initial claims rose more than expected to 225k in the week ending May 30.
- This is the largest weekly claims figure since February 7.
- However, continuing claims continued to trend down, falling to 1.777 million in the week ending May 23 from 1.785 million in the previous week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jumped in Latest Week

Andrew Cates

**More Hawkish Central Banks**
One of the most important developments in recent months has been the steady shift in expectations surrounding monetary policy. Earlier this year, investors were largely focused on the prospect of widespread rate cuts as growth slowed and inflation appeared to be moving back towards target. Today, the narrative has changed materially. According to the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey, economists now expect policy rates to rise modestly over the next twelve months in Japan, Canada, the euro area and Australia. Only the UK and US are still expected to see rate reductions and even these are relatively modest compared with expectations earlier in the year. Perhaps more interesting is the growing divergence between economists and financial markets. While the Blue Chip panel continues to anticipate small reductions in policy rates in both the UK and US, market pricing has increasingly shifted towards the possibility of modest tightening instead. Stronger economic activity, firmer labour markets (in the US) and renewed inflation concerns have all contributed to this reassessment. The result is a global interest rate environment that increasingly looks "higher for longer" rather than one characterised by an aggressive easing cycle.

260604Z1.jpg

**US Labour Demand Remains Surprisingly Resilient**
As noted, part of the reason markets have become less convinced about future rate cuts is that the US labour market continues to show surprising resilience. Job opening rates have actually risen over recent months, suggesting that labour demand may be reaccelerating despite growing discussion about AI-related job displacement. On that last note, the sectoral detail is particularly revealing. Professional and business services recorded the largest increase in job openings over the past three months, significantly outperforming most other sectors. This is noteworthy because professional services are frequently cited as one of the areas most vulnerable to disruption from generative AI. Rather than reducing hiring demand, however, AI investment may currently be creating additional demand for highly skilled workers involved in software development, consulting, implementation and digital transformation.

260604Z2.jpg

**Middle East Tensions Continue to Generate Inflation Risks**
A second factor contributing to higher bond yields and reduced expectations of monetary easing is the persistence of supply-side inflation pressures. The latest global PMI surveys show that manufacturing output prices are climbing more sharply while supplier delivery times have lengthened compared with earlier in the year. Much of this appears linked to ongoing instability in the Middle East and the associated disruption to global shipping routes. Longer transit times, higher insurance costs and logistical bottlenecks have all contributed to upward pressure on manufacturing costs. There is, however, a modestly encouraging signal in the latest data. While delivery times remain relatively stretched, the most recent PMI survey does not indicate any significant further deterioration at the global level. This suggests that supply chain conditions may be stabilising rather than entering another period of sustained disruption.

260604Z3.jpg

**Manufacturing Is Benefiting from a More Benign Trade Environment**
While supply chain concerns remain important, there are also signs that some of the pressures facing global manufacturers may be easing. Effective tariff rates facing many major US trading partners have declined significantly over the past six months. The largest reductions have occurred across several key Asian economies including India, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and members of ASEAN. Europe and the UK have also experienced some easing, although to a lesser extent, while Australia stands out as one of the few countries facing an increase in effective tariff rates. This chart may help explain some of the resilience visible in recent manufacturing surveys around the world. While trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, the actual tariff burden facing many exporters has become less restrictive.

260604Z4.jpg

**South Korea Highlights the Scale of the AI Boom**
If there is one chart that captures the extraordinary scale of the AI investment cycle, it is South Korea's semiconductor export data. Semiconductor exports surged by an astonishing 169% year-on-year in May, one of the strongest readings on record and a powerful illustration of the strong demand currently flowing through the global technology supply chain. South Korea occupies a pivotal position within the global semiconductor ecosystem, making its export data one of the most useful real-time indicators of AI-related capital expenditure. The rapid buildout of data centres, cloud infrastructure and advanced computing capacity is generating unprecedented demand for memory chips, processors and other semiconductor components. While concerns about eventual overcapacity remain valid, the near-term momentum remains remarkable. The strength of South Korean exports suggests that AI-related investment spending is continuing to accelerate rather than slow, providing an increasingly important support to global growth and trade at a time when many other sectors are facing cyclical headwinds.

260604Z5.jpg

**Investors Are Following the AI Money**
Our final chart this week highlights how investors are positioning for these trends. Equity fund flows since the beginning of 2025 show a striking divergence across Asian markets. Taiwan and South Korea have attracted substantial inflows, while broader Asia ex-Japan regional funds and India have experienced net outflows. The explanation is relatively straightforward. Taiwan and South Korea sit at the centre of the global AI supply chain and are among the largest beneficiaries of surging semiconductor demand. At the same time, both economies have also benefited from the recent easing in tariff pressures highlighted in the previous chart. Investors have therefore become increasingly selective, directing capital towards those markets with the greatest exposure to AI-driven growth. The concentration of flows into a relatively narrow group of markets inevitably raises questions about valuations and positioning. Nevertheless, the broader message remains clear. The AI investment boom continues to dominate both trade flows and capital flows across Asia and remains one of the most powerful forces shaping the global economy today.

260604Z6.jpg

The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts point to a growing bias towards policy tightening rather than loosening in several major economies (chart 1), while rising US job opening rates suggest labour demand remains firmer than expected (chart 2). At the same time, ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to generate supply-side inflation risks and lengthier delivery times (chart 3). There are, however, also reasons for optimism. Manufacturing activity appears to be finding some support from a reduction in effective tariff rates facing many major US trading partners (chart 4). More importantly, the AI investment boom continues to gather momentum. South Korea's semiconductor exports surged by an extraordinary 169% year-on-year in May, highlighting the strength of global demand for AI-related hardware (chart 5). Unsurprisingly, investors continue to direct capital towards those markets most exposed to these trends, with Taiwan and South Korea attracting substantial equity inflows (chart 6). The bottom line is that inflation concerns and higher-for-longer interest rates remain important risks, but they are increasingly being offset, for now, by a combination of improving economic conditions and one of the strongest technology-driven investment cycles in modern history.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0mQUJnpcffhlDULAEZJIFP?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Inflation Fears, AI Cheers

Michael J. Moran

260603A.jpg

260603B.jpg

New orders for manufactured goods jumped 4.8 percent in April, led by a surge of 8.0% in the durable-goods sector and reinforced by an advance of 1.4% in orders for nondurable goods.

The increase in orders for durable goods was heavily influenced by the volatile aircraft category, which posted a striking advance of 113.3%. However, the jump did little to influence the underlying trend, as it followed a cumulative decline of 51.6% over the prior four months. Excluding aircraft orders, the durable component rose 0.9%, reinforcing a strong upward trend that began late last year (chart, above right). Bookings for computers, despite a dip in April, have been a force behind the advance excluding aircraft, but other areas have been firm as well (machinery, primary metals, fabricated metals). The results in the durable sector were in line with the preliminary estimate released last week, which showed an increase of 7.9% overall and 0.8% ex-aircraft.

The strong performance in new orders for durable goods has generated an upward trend in unfilled orders. Backlogs started to move higher in the second half of last year, and they added to that trend with an increase of 0.6% in April (chart, lower left).

The increase of 1.4% in the nondurable sector was led by a jump of 4.0% in the petroleum and coal category, which followed an average increase of 6.8% in the prior three months. These increases, of course, primarily reflected price changes rather than shifts in real activity. However, bookings outside of petroleum and coal have been firm on balance, increasing 0.8% in April after advances of 0.6% and 0.7% in the prior two months (chart, lower right). Nondurable orders also rose in the four months before this recent burst, but the changes were small. Orders for nondurable goods are typically shipped upon arrival, and thus backlogs are not tracked, but the recent flow of bookings certainly represents a solid trend.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260603C.jpg

260603D.jpg

- Aircraft bookings fueled durable bookings in April, accenting solid gains in prior months.
- Petroleum prices inflated nondurable orders in April, but orders ex-petrol advanced as well.

Factory Orders: Lots of Noise, but Also Firm Trends in Recent Months

Winnie Tapasanun

260603J23.jpg

260603K23.jpg

U.S. nonfarm private sector payrolls jumped a more-than-expected 122,000 (0.5% y/y) in May—the largest of 11 straight m/m gains and the strongest since January 2025—after rises of 105,000 in April (+109,000 initially) and 61,000 in March (unrevised), according to the ADP National Employment Report. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 110,000 May increase. The three-month average change rose to 96,000 in May, the highest since February 2025, from 77,000 in April and 46,000 in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 67,000 (0.9% y/y) in May, the 11th consecutive m/m rise, after a 63,000 gain in April (+65,000 initially), with employment in very small firms (1-19 employees) up 49,000 and employment in small firms (20-49 employees) up 18,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) advanced 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in May following a 2,000 increase in April (unrevised) and two successive m/m declines. Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 40,000 (1.6% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 42,000 April rebound (unrevised).

Service-producing jobs jumped 114,000 (0.7% y/y) in May, the 12th straight m/m gain, on top of a 91,000 rise in April (+94,000 initially). May’s gain was led by education & health services (+57,000), followed by trade, transportation & utilities (+36,000), professional & business services (+11,000), leisure & hospitality (+8,000), financial activities (+7,000), and other services (+4,000). In contrast, employment fell m/m in information (-9,000) in May, the only declining category, following three consecutive m/m increases.

Goods-producing employment increased 8,000 (-0.4% y/y) in May, the smallest of four straight m/m gains, following a 14,000 rise in April (+15,000 initially). May’s increase was led by construction (+8,000) and manufacturing (+3,000, the first m/m increase since March 2024), while natural resources & mining (-3,000) fell m/m for the first time since January.

By region, nonfarm private payroll employment rose m/m across all major regions in May, reflecting m/m gains in the West (+45,000; +1.0% y/y), Northeast (+35,000; +0.4% y/y), South (+23,000; +0.5% y/y), and Midwest (+21,000; +0.2% y/y).

Wage growth for job changers eased to 6.5% y/y in May from 6.6% in April and March, remaining well below a high of 16.1% in April 2022. Wage growth for job stayers held steady at 4.4% y/y for the second consecutive month in May, holding in a narrow 4.4%-4.5% range since April 2025. Pay growth was unchanged across major industries, including financial activities (5.1% y/y), manufacturing (4.8% y/y), construction (4.5% y/y), leisure & hospitality (4.5% y/y), trade, transportation & utilities (4.4% y/y), education & health services (4.2% y/y), other services (4.1% y/y), and professional & business services (4.1% y/y), while pay growth in natural resources & mining dipped to 4.2% in May from 4.3% in April.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

260603L23.jpg

260603M23.jpg

- Private payrolls +122K in May, largest of 11 straight m/m gains, indicating sustained labor-market momentum.
- Broad-based hiring across company sizes, driven by small businesses (+67K).
- Service-sector jobs up (+114K), led by education & health svs. (+57K) and trade, transp. & utilities (+36K), partly offset by information (-9K).
- Goods-producing jobs up (+8K), driven by construction (+8K).
- Wage growth down marginally y/y for job changers (6.5%) but steady for job stayers (4.4%).

U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth in May Strongest Since Jan. ’25

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Electricity Production and Consumption (Apr)

Foreign Trade by Activity, Trade Price Indexes (Apr)

BEA Auto Sales (May), Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders (Apr), ADP Employment Report (May)

Labor Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q1), International Reserves (May)