Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) increased 4.0% (5.3% y/y) during July to 98.8 after falling in each of the prior three months. The index remained below the recent high of 104.9 in September of last year. The level of home affordability was 9.9% higher than its low of 89.9 in October 2023, but the latest level was 44.9% below the high of 179.2 in April 2020.

The rise in affordability in July occurred as the median price of an existing single-family home fell 2.3% (+0.3% y/y) to $428,500, and mortgage rates fell to 6.80% after two straight months at 6.90%. The price compared to the record $432,900 in June 2024. The fall in mortgage rates left them above their a low of 6.26% in September of last year, though below a 7.70% high in October of 2023. They remained well above a December 2020 low of 2.73%. In July, the principal & interest payment fell 3.3% (-1.0% y/y) to $2,235 per month, well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged a lessened 25.3% of income during July, down from 26.3% in June, but increased from a low of 14.0% of income in April 2020.

The decline in housing costs in July was accompanied by a rise in median family income. It rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) to $105,986 after rising 0.2% in June. Qualifying income declined 3.3% (-1.0% y/y) to $107,280 after rising 2.3% in June.

Housing affordability improved m/m across the country in July. The index rose 2.8% (1.5% y/y) to 122.0 in the Midwest, and remains the most affordable region of the country. In the South, the index increased 3.4% (6.1% y/y) to 104.7, and the affordability index in the Northeast improved 8.6% (4.4% y/y) to 88.1. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index improved 2.9% (6.8% y/y) to 71.9 in July.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

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- Home prices & mortgage rates slip.
- Median income edges higher.
- Affordability increases across country.

U.S. Housing Affordability Improves in July

Andrew Cates

**The Blue Chip Growth Consensus**
Consensus growth expectations for 2026 have been marked down across most major economies since January, and the chart shows how broad-based the rethink has become. The steepest downgrades have been made to Canada, Taiwan, and the US, while China is little changed. The common thread is a tougher trade environment shaped by the expanded US tariff regime. Those pressures are being compounded by wider global constraints—geopolitical instability, lingering investment-screening and export-control frictions, and a still-elevated cost of capital.

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**US payroll revisions**
Consistent with that thinner 2026 outlook, fresh BLS payroll benchmarks now indicate a materially cooler US jobs backdrop. BLS’s preliminary benchmark revision—which aligns the monthly payroll survey to unemployment-insurance tax records—marked US nonfarm employment down by 911,000 jobs (-0.6%) in the year to March 2025, pointing to a materially softer hiring backdrop than previously believed. This has been flagged as the largest preliminary downgrade on record, with the biggest cuts concentrated in trade (retail/wholesale), leisure & hospitality, professional & business services, and manufacturing, while government saw only a minor trim. As the chart below shows, the revised series (dark line) now tracks noticeably below the previously published path (light line) from late-2024 onward, implying slower momentum through mid-2025. The BLS stresses this is preliminary—based on QCEW administrative data—with final benchmarking due with the 2026 annual update, but the signal adds to the softer tone from recent payroll reports. Markets and forecasters are treating the revision as confirmation that job growth had cooled earlier and more broadly than the headline prints had suggested.

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**Healthcare employment**
Even with the payroll benchmark revision pointing to a softer hiring backdrop, one engine kept humming: healthcare. The question, then, isn’t just how many jobs were added—it’s where they came from. As the chart shows, employment growth across many advanced economies has been disproportionately concentrated in healthcare and social care. Since end-2023, the sector has surged by roughly 5%–6% in the US, UK, and Japan—three to four times the pace of overall employment—pushing healthcare’s share of total jobs toward 14%–15% (gold diamonds in chart). The euro area is the notable laggard, with more muted gains in both healthcare and aggregate payrolls. Demographics are arguably the main culprit: ageing populations, post-pandemic treatment backlogs, and rising long-term-care needs continue to ratchet up demand for staff. But composition matters: healthcare tends to have lower measured productivity and limited tradability, so its growing weight props up headline employment while diluting aggregate productivity growth and tightening fiscal space (given the sector’s heavy public funding and regulation). In short, the resilience of headline jobs is increasingly a healthcare story, even as cyclical, tradable sectors remain softer.

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**China’s trade**
China’s August trade print reinforced the divergence in its export map—weakness to the US, strength to ASEAN. Headline exports rose 4.4% y/y in dollar terms (slowest in six months) while imports edged up by 1.5%, leaving a hefty $102bn surplus. But beneath the top line, shipments to the US plunged 33% y/y, whereas exports to ASEAN jumped 22.5% y/y. Accompanying commentary tied the split to fading support from the brief US tariff “truce,” the drag from new and prospective duties, and Beijing’s push to deepen ASEAN ties—including an accelerated upgrade to the China-ASEAN FTA—as firms re-route supply chains and sales toward the region. The message for global demand: China’s export engine is still running, but is being rebalanced toward ASEAN and away from the US, with the composition shift muting the impulse to US manufacturing while supporting Southeast Asia’s role in Chinese supply networks.

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**Private sector indebtedness**
While financial markets often tend to fixate on public debt when judging national solvency—via spreads, ratings chatter, and rising bond yields—the historical trigger for many financial crises is excessive private-sector leverage (households and non-financial corporates) colliding with tighter credit. The chart underscores why France merits heightened attention right now: its private non-financial debt stock sits well above peers—near 280% of GDP—far higher than the euro-area average (~200%), Germany (~180%), the UK (~150%) and the US (~115%). With France also navigating fresh political instability this week, the vulnerability channel to watch is less the sovereign’s flow deficit and more the balance-sheet sensitivity of firms and households to weaker growth and refinancing needs in a bank-centric system. By contrast, the UK and US enter with lower private leverage (and, in the US, deeper market-based intermediation), implying a smaller amplification risk even if gilts or Treasuries cheapen.

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**Global supply chain pressures**
Pivoting from balance-sheet risks to the flow side of inflation, the much-feared tariff-driven squeeze on supply chains hasn’t materialised. In the run-up to, and after, recent US tariff packages—covering Chinese EVs, batteries, solar inputs and broader manufacturing goods—commentators warned of renewed bottlenecks, costly re-routing via third countries, longer lead times, and a fresh wave of “landed-cost” inflation. The chart suggests otherwise. The NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (dark line) remains close to zero, back at pre-pandemic norms despite those policy shocks, while Citi’s Global Inflation Surprise Index (light line) hovers around/below zero, indicating price data are no longer consistently overshooting forecasts. In short, tariff headlines haven’t yet translated into broad supply stress: logistics capacity appears ample and pass-through contained. Risks remain—energy spikes, shipping disruptions, or a wider tariff net—but for now the supply-side impulse to inflation looks neutral, not acute.

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Financial markets have spent the week recalibrating after last Friday’s much weaker-than-expected US payrolls data: government bond yields have declined sharply, while equity markets have remained perky off hopes of a gentler policy path and still-resilient earnings. Even so, the medium-term growth lens has dimmed—since January, consensus GDP forecasts for 2026 have been marked down across most major economies, reflecting a tougher trade regime and geopolitical frictions (chart 1). Turning to the data, the BLS’s preliminary payroll benchmark revision shaved 911k jobs from US employment from April 2024 to March 2025, confirming the idea of a broader cooling in hiring (chart 2). Within that softer backdrop, the composition of job creation has tilted further toward healthcare and social care - not just in the US - supporting headcount but possibly diluting aggregate productivity (chart 3). Elsewhere, China’s latest trade print highlighted a continued rotation of exports away from the US toward other Asian economies (chart 4). On vulnerabilities, France’s private-sector debt leverage—well above peers—underscores that crises more often spring from private balance sheets than sovereign ones (chart 5). And, finally, fears that new US tariffs would reignite supply-chain pressures continue to look overstated, at least for now (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/7rTqgJljYeK0ZmCmv8PQRn?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Labouring the Point

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The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August after rising 0.2% in July and 0.3% in June. The increase outpaced the 0.3% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 2.9% y/y increase in the headline CPI in August was the strongest since January and was increased from 2.3% in April. The y/y gain matched last year’s increase and remained below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy increased an expected 0.3% last month after a 0.3% July rise and a 0.2% gain in June. The 3.1% y/y August rise compared to 3.1% in July. It remained below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices rose 0.7% (0.2% y/y) last month after falling 1.1% in July. Gasoline prices rebounded 1.9% (-6.6% y/y) after falling 2.2% in July. Fuel oil prices slipped 0.3% (-0.5% y/y) after rising 1.8% in July. Natural gas prices fell 1.6% (+13.8% y/y) following a 0.9% decline, and electricity prices edged 0.2% higher (6.2% y/y) after a 0.1% slip in July.

Food prices rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y) last month after holding steady in July. Egg prices were unchanged (+10.9% y/y), after falling 3.9%. Meat, poultry & fish prices strengthened 1.1% (5.4% y/y) after increasing 0.7%, while dairy product prices edged up 0.1% (1.3% y/y), after rising 0.7% in July. Cereal & bakery product costs also increased a minimal 0.1% (1.1% y/y) following a 0.2% decline while fruit & vegetable prices strengthened 1.6% (1.9% y/y), after holding steady in July. Nonalcoholic beverage prices increased 0.6% (4.6% y/y) in August after falling 0.5% in July.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.3% in August after two straight 0.2% increases. The 1.5% y/y price increase was increased from a 1.9% y/y decline in both July and August of 2024. Prices of used cars and trucks jumped 1.0% (6.0% y/y) last month, after rising 0.5% in July, while new vehicle costs improved 0.3% (-0.7% y/y) after holding steady. Apparel prices increased 0.5% (0.2% y/y) in August after rising 0.1%. Appliance prices rose 0.4% (0.3% y/y), after falling 0.9%. Home furnishings prices edged 0.1% higher (2.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in July. Recreation product costs held steady (0.1% y/y) in August, after a 0.4% increase. Education & communication product costs declined 0.3% (-3.8% y/y) last month, after falling 1.3%. Medical care goods prices fell 0.3% (NSA, 0.0% y/y) after two months of 0.1% increase.

Services prices less energy strengthened 0.3% in August (3.6% y/y) after rising 0.4% in July. Shelter prices (35.5% of the CPI) rose 0.4% (3.6% y/y), after two months of 0.2% increase, as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.4% (4.0% y/y) after three straight months of 0.3% gain. The cost of lodging away from home rebounded 2.3% in August (-2.6% y/y), after five straight months of decline. Rents of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.5% y/y) in August for a second straight month. Transportation service prices jumped 1.0% (3.5% y/y) after gaining 0.8% and the cost of motor vehicle insurance held steady (4.7% y/y) in August, after rising 0.1%. Public transportation costs increased 3.6% (2.2% y/y) after rising 3.0% during July. The cost of medical services eased 0.1% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.8% rise, and the cost of recreation services fell 0.2% (3.6% y/y) after rising 0.4% in July. Education & communication services prices rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in July.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Energy & food prices strengthen.
- Core inflation steadies.
- Core goods gain increases but core services inflation eases.

U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Firms in August

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The Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $344.8 billion for August after a $291.1 billion July deficit. Revenues rose 1.7% last month while outlays grew 9.4%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $240.0 billion deficit in August.

During the first eleven months of FY’25, the deficit rose to $1.973 trillion from $1.897 trillion in the first eleven months of FY’24. Federal gov’t receipts rose 6.8% y/y in the first eleven months to $4.691 trillion compared to 10.6% in FY’24. Individual income tax receipts rose 8.3% y/y compared to last year’s 11.3% y/y gain. The level of corporate tax receipts fell 7.5% y/y so far this year after a 29.9% y/y rise in the first eleven months FY’24. Social insurance revenues increased 3.0% y/y after a 5.6% y/y rise in FY’24, and excise taxes rose 4.5% y/y so far in FY’25 compared to a 29.9 gain last year. Customs duties rose 136.7% y/y in the first 11 months of FY’25 after a 5.3% y/y decline in FY’24.

Federal government outlays grew 6.0% y/y to $6.664 trillion so far in FY’25 versus a 14.4% rise this far in FY’24. Defense spending rose 5.4% y/y after an 8.4% y/y rise last fiscal year. Social Security outlays rose 8.3% y/y so far in FY’25 versus a 7.9% gain last year. Interest payments rose 10.7% y/y so far in FY’25 after a 33.9% rise in most of last fiscal year. Health program spending rose 7.4% y/y after rising 1.5% in FY’24, while Medicare payments surged 13.5% y/y after a 16.4% y/y rise in the first eleven months of last year. Income security outlays rose 5.5% y/y with all but one month left in FY’25 compared to an 11.6% y/y decline in the first eleven months of FY’24.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.


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- Monthly deficit is well above expectations.
- Revenues rise moderately while outlays surge. 
- Deficit increases in first eleven months of FY’25.

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit Deepens in August

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 27,000 to 263,000 in the week ended September 6, which contained the Labor Day weekend, up from 236,000 during the week of August 30, revised from 237,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since October 23, 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 235,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 240,500, an increase of 9,750, from the previous week’s average of 230,750, revised down from 231,000. It has been the highest level since the first week of June.

In the week ended August 30, the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – was 1.939 million, unchanged from the prior week, which was revised down by 1,000 from 1.940 million. The four-week moving average was 1.946 million, down from the previous week’s average of 1.947 million.

In the week ending August 30, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was 1.3% for the fourteenth consecutive week.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended August 23, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.77%), Rhode Island (2.50%), Massachusetts (2.17%), Washington (2.07%), California (2.04%), and Minnesota (2.01%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.25%), Florida (0.40%), North Carolina (0.44%), Alabama (0.45%), and Nebraska and North Dakota (both 0.48%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.77%), New York (1.76%), Illinois (1.63%), and Texas (1.22%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims jumped 27,000 in latest week containing the Labor Day Weekend.
- Continuing claims were unchanged.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Jumped in Latest Week

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Employer Costs for Employee Comp, Qtrly Services Survey (Q2)

Monthly GDP, IP, International Trade, Construction Output (Jul), BoE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey (Q3)

IP, Industrial Sales, Construction, New Orders (Jul), Money Supply (Aug)

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