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Stata

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged (2.3% y/y) in June after rising 0.3% in May, revised from 0.1%, and easing 0.3% in April, revised from a 0.2% fall, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase in June. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services also were unchanged (2.5% y/y) after a 0.1% May gain, and falling 0.2% in April, which was revised from -0.1%. A 0.2% increase had been expected.

Food prices rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) in June after holding steady in May. Finished consumer food prices rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) after increasing in May. Energy prices for final demand rose 0.6% (-2.6% y/y) last month after falling 0.3% in May. Finished consumer energy prices rose 0.9% last month (-1.7% y/y) after a 0.6% increase.

Final demand services prices continued to hold back overall pricing pressure last month with a 0.1% dip (+2.7% y/y), following a 0.4% increase. Final demand trade services prices held steady (+2.9% y/y) after surging 1.1%, while the trade of finished goods index remained unchanged (+2.8% y/y) following a 1.2% surge. Transportation & warehousing prices fell 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.4% gain in May. Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing eased 0.1% last month (+2.6% y/y) after improving 0.1% in May.

The price index for final demand goods less foods & energy increased 0.3% (2.5% y/y) in June following a 0.2% increase. Nondurable consumer goods prices less food & energy rose 0.1% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Durable consumer goods prices rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. The private capital equipment price index improved 0.3% (3.2% y/y) for the second straight month. Government prices less food & energy rose 0.4% (2.9% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in May.

Construction costs rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y) in June after rising 0.2% in May.

Prices for intermediate demand of processed goods edged 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) in June for the second consecutive month. Processed energy goods prices improved 0.6% following a 1.9% decline while processed foods and feeds prices fell 0.3% after rising 0.7% in May.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Unchanged monthly levels extend weakness earlier this year.
- Core price gain slows y/y.
- Final demand price index is steady; services prices decline.

U.S. Producer Price & Core Price Indexes Hold Steady in June

Winnie Tapasanun

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Industrial production (IP) increased a more-than-expected 0.3% m/m in June after no change in May (-0.2% initially) and April (+0.1% previously), data from the Federal Reserve Board showed. A 0.1% m/m June increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate of increase picked up to 0.7% in June after decelerating to 0.6% in May (lowest since December); however, it was down from +1.6% y/y in June 2024. The June IP index was at 104.0, the highest since December 2018 and 2.5% above a low of 101.5 in January 2024.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in June, the fourth m/m increase in five months, after an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in May (+0.1% initially). Durable goods production was essentially unchanged (+1.5% y/y) in June following a 0.7% rebound in May. Within durables, the following categories fell m/m in June, including output drops of 2.6% (-2.2% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 2.5% (-1.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.9% (+2.8% y/y) in wood products, and 0.2% (-1.2% y/y) in fabricated metal products. To the upside, the following durable goods categories rose m/m in June, including output rises of 3.1% (5.0% y/y) in primary metals, 1.6% (5.4% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 1.3% (-1.9% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (3.3% y/y) in machinery, 0.6% (1.6% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.2% (6.6% y/y) in computer & electronic products, and 0.1% (-1.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durables goods. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 1.8% (9.1% y/y) in June, the eighth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.7% increase in May.

Nondurable goods production rose 0.3% (0.4% y/y) in June, the first m/m rise in three months, following a 0.1% dip in May. The June rise reflected m/m output increases of 2.9% (0.7% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, 0.5% (-5.1% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, and 0.2% (-0.8% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco. To the downside, the following nondurable goods categories fell m/m in June, including output drops of 1.0% (-3.4% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 0.7% (-2.0% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 0.6% (-2.8% y/y) in plastics & rubber products, and 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) in paper. Meanwhile, production for chemicals held steady (3.2% y/y) for two months.

Utilities output rebounded 2.8% (-0.8% y/y) in June, the second m/m increase in three months, following a revised 2.5% decline in May (-2.9% initially). In contrast, mining activity fell 0.3% (+1.6% y/y), down for the second month in three, after an unrevised 0.1% May uptick.

By **market groups**, materials production recovered 0.4% (1.3% y/y) in June, up for the second month in three, following a 0.1% easing in May. Construction supplies production rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y), the fourth m/m rise in five months, after a 0.1% May uptick. Consumer goods output increased 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) in June following no change in May, reflecting a 1.4% drop (-3.4% y/y) in durable consumer goods and a 0.7% rebound (0.0% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods. Business equipment output inched up 0.1% (3.2% y/y), the eighth straight m/m increase, on top of a 0.8% May rise.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 0.5% (13.2% y/y) in June, the sixth m/m rise in seven months, after an upwardly revised 1.9% gain in May (+0.4% initially). Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries inched up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in June, up for the fourth month in five, following a 0.3% increase in May; manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts rebounded 0.3% (0.7% y/y), up for the first time since March, following a 0.1% May easing.

Capacity utilization rebounded to 77.6% in June from a four-month-low 77.5% in May (77.4% previously). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 77.4%. The June reading was 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 76.9% in June, the highest since March, from 76.8% in May (76.7% initially); the June rate was 1.3 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- June IP +0.3% (+0.7% y/y), led by a 2.8% rebound in utilities output.
- June IP Index at the highest level since Dec. ’18.
- Mfg. IP +0.1%, w/ durables unchanged and nondurables up 0.3%.
- Mining activity -0.3%, the second m/m fall in three months.
- Key categories in market groups all increase.
- Capacity utilization up 0.1%pt. to 77.6%; mfg. capacity utilization up 0.1%pt. to a 3-month-high 76.9%.

U.S. Industrial Production Rises in June After Holding Steady for Two Months

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications fell 10.0% (+18.4% y/y) in the week ending July 11, after rising 9.4% w/w (36.6% y/y) in the week ending July 4, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading broke the string of three consecutive w/w rises. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 11.8% (+13.7% y/y) in the July 11 week, following a rise of 9.4% (25.4% y/y) in the July 4 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 7.4% (+25.2% y/y) after rising 9.2% (55.8% y/y) in the July 4 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 5bps to 7.00% in the week ending July 11, from 6.95% in the week ending July 4; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 12bps to 6.32% in the latest week from 6.20% in the July 4 week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans rose 6bps to 6.94% in the July 11 week from 6.88% in the July 4 week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM edged down 4bps to 6.24% in the latest week from 6.28% in the July 4 week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.1% of total applications in the week ending July 11 up from 40.0% in the week ending July 4. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity dropped to 7.1% in the July 11 week from 7.7% in the July 4 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan, down for the fourth week in five, fell 2.8% (+3.0% y/y) to $375,500 in the July 11 week, following a decline of 1.3% w/w (+4.5% y/y) to $386,400 in the July 4 week. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.9% (+2.9% y/y) to $428,900 in the July 11 week, after declining 2.5% (+1.8% y/y) to $432,600 in the July 4 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 5.6% (+6.1% y/y) to $299,200 in the latest week, after rising 1.1% (18.8% y/y) to $317,100 in the July 4 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in July 11 week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose to 7.0%.
- Average loan size declines for the fourth time in five weeks.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped 10.0% in the Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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Inflation in the United Kingdom is still running hot in June. The CPIH rose by 0.4% in the month with its core rate that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages & tobacco also rising 0.4% month-to-month. In both cases, these increases compare to a rise of 0.1% in May. On that perspective, the two-month trend is somewhat muted. However, in April the CPIH headline rose by 0.6% and the core rose by 0.4%, so the U.K. finds itself in another period of excess inflation.

**Sequential inflation**
The sequential inflation rate from 12-months to six-months to three-months shows the headline at 4.1% over 12 months, 4.2% over six months and 4.3% over three months, a very slight acceleration, but clearly inflation that is over 2 percentage points above the target set by the Bank of England across the entire span. The core rate for the CPIH is up 4.3% over 12 months, up at a 4.4% annual rate over six months and looks slightly muted at 4.2% over three months. Again, we are looking at a solid inflation overshoot that is more than 2 percentage points above the target set by the Bank of England.

**Inflation breadth**
In the month of June, inflation accelerated in 45% of the categories, the same proportion as in May; however, in April acceleration occurred in 54% of the categories. These sequential data show that over three months inflation in the U.K. accelerated across 54% of the categories, the same proportion as over six months although both of those marks were below the 63% acceleration breadth logged over 12 months. The data clearly show that there isn't any deceleration to any great extent in play over any of these horizons and that the monthly data offer only a modicum of solace for June and May.

The far-right hand column evaluates current inflation rates year-over-year compared to where they have been since January 2000, monthly. The comparison is a ranked percentage of the current inflation rate vs. this history. For example, the current CPIH 12-month inflation rate of 4.1% sits at the 88.6 percentile of its historic queue of data. This tells us that inflation has been this high or higher, less than 12% of the time over this period, clearly marking the 4.1% growth rate as high and as substantial by historic experience. The CPIH core has a slightly higher standing and it's 89th percentile. Looking across the components, all but two have rankings over this 50%. Rankings that are above 50% place them above their medians for the period. The exceptions here, are a 26.5 percentile standing for restaurants & hotels inflation where prices are running at 2.6%, and transportation where prices are running at 1.6%.  Furniture, household equipment & maintenance prices have a 56.2 percentile standing, only marginally above the category’s historic median. After that, there's only one category in its 60th percentile, two categories in their 70th percentile and the rest are higher.

**Summing up**
Needless to say, the U.K. has an entrenched inflation problem. It's lodged in the headline; it's lodged in the core; it's lodged across most of the commodity categories! The Bank of England simply has work to do and there isn't much evidence that the BOE is making any progress; in fact, the trends seem to suggest that there may be much more work to do.

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United Kingdom

U.K. CPIH Inflation Runs Hot

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The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May and increasing 0.2% in April. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 2.7% y/y increase in the headline CPI in June compared to 2.4% in May and remained below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.2% last month after a 0.1% uptick in May and a 0.2% April gain. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The 2.9% y/y June rise compared to 2.8% in May, still well below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices rose 0.9% (-0.8% y/y) last month after falling 1.0% in May. Gasoline prices strengthened 1.0% (-8.3% y/y) after falling 2.6% in May. Fuel oil prices rose 1.3% (-4.7% y/y) after rising 0.9% in April. Natural gas prices rose 0.5% (14.2% y/y) following a 1.0% decline, and electricity prices gained 1.0% (5.8% y/y) after rising 0.9% in May.

Food prices rose 0.3% in June (3.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Egg prices fell 7.4% (+27.3% y/y), the third straight month of sharp decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.8% (+4.1% y/y) after easing 0.1%, while dairy product prices declined 0.3% (0.9% y/y) after easing 0.1% in May. Cereal & bakery product costs eased 0.2% (0.9% y/y) after a 1.1% increase while fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.9% (0.7% y/y), following a 0.3% gain. Nonalcoholic beverage prices strengthened 1.4% (4.4% y/y) in June after falling 0.3% in May.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2 (0.7% y/y) in June after holding steady in May. Prices of used cars and trucks fell 0.7% (+2.8% y/y) last month, after falling 0.5% in May, while new vehicle costs weakened 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Apparel prices rose 0.4% in June (-0.5% y/y) and reversed the prior month’s 0.4% decline. Appliance prices surged 1.9% (0.8% y/y), after increasing 0.8%. Home furnishings prices jumped 1.0% (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Recreation	 product costs rose 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) in May, doubling the May increase. Education & communication product costs held steady last month (-3.3% y/y) after rising 0.1% in May. Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (NSA, 0.2% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in May.

Services prices less energy moved up 0.3% (3.6% y/y) last month following a 0.2% May gain. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) last month after two months of 0.3% increase as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (4.2% y/y), the same as in May. The cost of lodging away from home declined 2.9% (-2.5% y/y), the fourth straight month of decline. Rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.8% y/y), the same as in May. Transportation service prices moved up 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after easing 0.2% as the cost of motor vehicle insurance edged up 0.1% (6.1% y/y) in June after strengthening 0.7% in May. Public transportation costs increased 0.4% (-2.7% y/y) after falling 2.5% during May. The cost of medical services increased 0.6% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.2% increase, and the cost of recreation services rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in May. Education & communication services prices rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found [here](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/07/economic-implications-of-tariff-increases/#wp--skip-link--target).

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- Monthly increase is highest in five months. Core gain moves up minimally.
- Energy costs post solid increase.
- Both core goods and core services prices move higher.

U.S. Consumer Price Index Strengthens in June

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Economy in Brief

U.S. Producer Price & Core Price Indexes Hold Steady in June

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U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped 10.0% in the Latest Week

U.K. CPIH Inflation Runs Hot

U.S. Consumer Price Index Strengthens in June