- US: Consumer Sentiment (Oct-final), Employment Cost Index (Q3), Personal Income (Sep)
- Spain: Capacity Utilization (Q4), BOP (Aug), Central Govt Debt (Sep), Consumer Confidence (Oct)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Oct-final)
- US: Chicago PMI, Milwaukee PMI (Oct)
- US: Underlying NIPA Tables (Q3-Adv), Key Source Data (Q3)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Aug)
- Morocco: Money Supply, PPI, Central Bank Balance Sheet (Sep);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Tick Higher
Initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week ended October 25 rose to 287,000 (-17.1% y/y) from 284,000...
EU Indices Head Higher in October
The EU overall sentiment index rose to a level of 104 in October from 103.5 in September...
FOMC Ends QE As Economy Improves & Inflation Remains Low
The Fed indicated that labor market improvement, moderate growth in household spending and positive business investment growth allowed for ending QE...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Pull Back
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 6.6% last week (-20.2% y/y) following three week's of improvement...
French Household Confidence Is Stuck in Low Gear
France's household opinion survey for October saw its household indicator at a level of 85, the same value as in September...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps With Youthful Exuberance
The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence surged to 94.5 this month (30.5% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller October 30, 2014
GDP grew 3.5% last quarter (2.3% y/y) following an unrevised 4.6% rise. The gain exceeded expectations for 3.0% growth in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last quarter's strength was due to trade deficit improvement and firm growth in government spending. Growth in the price index moderated.
Improvement in the foreign trade deficit added 1.3 percentage points to overall economic growth last quarter. This followed two quarters of subtraction from growth. It reflected a 7.8% rise (4.6% y/y) in exports and a 1.7% decline (+3.2% y/y) in imports. Countering the addition to growth from trade was a 0.6 percentage point subtraction due to slower inventory accumulation.
Consumer spending growth also slowed to a 1.8% annual rate (2.3% y/y) from 2.5%. The 7.2% gain (7.5% y/y) in spending on durable goods was half its Q2 growth as spending growth on motor vehicles eased to 9.9% (9.9% y/y). Furniture & home furnishings spending slowed to a 3.6% rate (5.3% y/y). Purchases of nondurable goods eased to 1.1% (1.5% y/y) as apparel spending slowed to 0.9% (1.3% y/y). Food & beverage purchases declined 1.1% (-0.2% y/y), down for the third straight quarter, and gasoline purchases were off 2.3% (-0.9% y/y). Services spending growth rose a steady 1.1% (1.8% y/y), the gain held back by a 2.9% decline (-1.4% y/y) in recreation.
Business investment growth eased to a still-firm 5.5% (6.7% y/y). Spending on equipment grew 7.2% (7.7% y/y), led by a 30.2% rise (16.6% y/y) in transportation equipment, offset by an 11.6% decline (-0.3% y/y) in information processing. Investment in intellectual property products gained 4.2% (4.5% y/y). Structures investment improved at a 3.7% rate (7.9% y/y). Slowing was residential investment growth to 1.9% (-1.0% y/y). Government spending purchases grew at a 4.6% rate (0.4% y/y), the quickest growth since Q2'09. Defense spending firmed at a 15.9% rate (-0.1% y/y), nondefense grew 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) and state & local buying rose 1.3% (1.0% y/y).
The GDP price index increased at a 1.3% annual rate (1.6% y/y). The personal consumption index slowed to 1.2% (1.5% y/y) as durable goods prices fell 1.9% (-2.3% y/y). The service price index rose 1.7% (2.2% y/y), the weakest gain in two years. The nonresidential investment price index rose at a steady 1.1% rate (1.3% y/y) but the residential index jumped 6.5% (5.8% y/y).
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $, %, AR||Q3'14 (Advance Estimate)||Q2'14||Q1'14||Q3 Y/Y||2013||2012||2011|
|Gross Domestic Product||3.5||4.6||-2.1||2.3||2.2||2.3||1.6|
|Foreign Trade Effect||1.3||-0.3||-1.7||0.1||0.3||0.1||0.0|
|Domestic Final Sales||2.7||3.4||0.7||2.4||1.9||2.1||1.7|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.8||2.5||1.2||2.3||2.4||1.8||2.3|
|Business Fixed Investment||5.5||9.7||1.6||6.7||3.0||7.2||7.7|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.2||2.3||1.4||1.5||1.2||1.8||2.5|