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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Payroll Increase Is Fairly Stable
by Tom Moeller  September 2, 2015

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 190,000 during August following a 177,000 July rise, initially reported as 185,000. The gain fell short of consensus expectations for a 195,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.

Small-sized payrolls improved a moderate 85,000 (2.6% y/y), below the 138,000 high during June last year. Medium-sized payrolls improved a steady 66,000 (2.1% y/y). Large payrolls increased 40,000 (1.7% y/y), up from little m/m growth earlier this year.

Employment in the goods-producing sector rose an improved 17,000 (1.7% y/y). Hiring in construction posted a steady 17,000 increase (4.7% y/y). Manufacturing sector jobs improved a modest 7,000 (0.8% y/y). Jobs in the service sector increased 173,000 (2.3% y/y), down from the 248,000 high during June 2012. Jobs in professional & business services improved 29,000 (2.6% y/y) and trade, transportation & utilities employment increased 28,000 (1.9% y/y). Employment in the financial sector rose 13,000 (1.8% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Aug Jul Jun Aug Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 190 177 231 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 85 63 119 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.5
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 66 61 81 2.1 2.8 2.2 2.1
 Large Payroll (>500) 40 53 31 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.1
Goods-Producing 17 7 13 1.7 2.3 1.7 2.2
  Construction 17 15 17 4.7 4.6 3.5 2.5
  Manufacturing 7 1 8 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.6
Service-Producing 173 170 218 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.3
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