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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Recovers Sharply
by Tom Moeller  June 30, 2016

Chicago purchasing managers reported that their Business Barometer surged to 56.8 this month following a May decline to 49.3. The figure was at the highest level since January 2015, and exceeded expectations for 50.4 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure increased to 52.9, the highest level since October. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.

Increases in the component series were widespread. Most notable was a 14.4 point gain in the new orders index to 63.2, the highest level since October 2014. The order backlog measure also surged 12.0 points to the highest level (59.7) since March 2011. The production and inventory indexes increased moderately to 56.3 and 50.0, respectively.

The employment figure also declined 3.3 points to 45.0, the lowest level since November 2009. During the last ten years, there has been an 80% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment. Supplier delivery speeds quickened, prompting a decline in the index.

The prices paid reading eased to 55.7, leaving the Q2 average of 56.4 above the Q1 mean of 43.3. An increased 25% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while 10% paid less.

The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.

Recent Economic Developments, Monetary Policy Considerations and Longer-term Prospects is the title of Tuesday's speech by Fed Governor Jerome H. Powell, and it can be found here.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) Jun May Apr Jun '15 2015 2014 2013
General Business Barometer 56.8 49.3 50.4 49.2 50.3 60.7 56.0
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer 52.9 48.0 52.0 49.5 51.6 59.3 54.2
  Production 56.3 47.4 54.0 50.4 52.5 64.5 58.2
  New Orders 63.2 48.8 51.0 51.2 50.4 63.8 59.1
  Order Backlogs 59.7 47.7 38.7 42.9 44.4 54.2 48.8
  Inventories 50.0 37.9 49.6 47.9 52.1 55.9 45.6
  Employment 45.0 48.3 47.5 47.2 50.3 56.0 55.6
  Supplier Deliveries 50.0 57.8 57.8 50.7 52.5 56.5 52.5
  Prices Paid 55.7 56.5 56.9 50.4 46.8 61.0 59.8
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