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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP: Job Growth Continues to Moderate
by Tom Moeller  April 1, 2015

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report reported that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 189,000 during March following a 214,000 improvement in February, revised from 212,000. The latest gain was the weakest since January of last year. It disappointed consensus expectations for a 225,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.

Medium sized payrolls rose a modest 62,000 increase (2.4% y/y), nearly the weakest gain in six months. Large firms posted a 19,000 rise (2.1% y/y), the easiest increase since a decline in October. Small sized payrolls improved 108,000 (2.7% y/y), a slight pickup from gains during the prior two months.

Employment in the goods producing sector nudged up 5,000 (2.4% y/y), the weakest gain since August of 2012. Jobs in the service sector increased a modest 184,000 (2.5% y/y), on a par with the prior two months. Professional & business employment gained 40,000 (3.3% y/y). Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities increased 25,000 (1.8% y/y) while employment in the financial sector improved 16,000 (1.8% y/y).

Construction sector employment grew 17,000 (5.1% y/y), the weakest rise since May. The number of manufacturing sector jobs declined 1,000 (+1.3% y/y), the first decline since January of last year.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Mar Feb Jan Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 189 214 220 2.5% 2.3% 1.9% 2.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 108 103 92 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.5
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 62 57 91 2.4 2.8 2.2 2.1
 Large Payroll (>500) 19 53 37 2.1 1.8 1.6 2.1
Goods-Producing 5 22 35 2.4 2.3 1.7 2.2
  Construction 17 28 31 4.9 4.6 3.5 2.5
  Manufacturing -1 2 8 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.6
Service-Producing 184 192 185 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.3
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