- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Jan)
- Ireland: Bank Lending Survey (Q1), Trade (Nov)
- Russia: BOP Estimate, Consumer Tendency Survey (Q4); Albania: Foreign Trade (Dec); Azerbaijan: Foreign Trade (Dec); Montenegro: CPI (Dec); Kazakhstan: Production (Dec); Slovenia: IP, Employment (Nov)
- Spain: Bank Lending Survey (Q1), Auto Production (Dec)
- Germany: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (Jan)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
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Data show a sharp improvement in German current conditions and a rise in German expectations. ...
U.S. Retail Sales Increase Driven by Autos & Gasoline
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% (4.4% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Increase An Expected 0.3%
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index increased 0.3% (1.6% y/y) during December...
U.S. Business Inventories Jumped While Sales Sputtered in November
Total business inventories increased 0.7% m/m (1.5% y/y) in November...
EMU Surpluses and Trump Trade-o-nomics
Since late 2000, the values for the German and EMU current accounts as a percentage of GDP have been positive...
U.S. Import Prices Rebound as Oil Prices Surge
Import prices increased 0.4% (1.8% y/y) during December following a 0.2% November decline...
by Tom Moeller January 17, 2017
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions for January continued to suggest positive economic conditions, though it eased to 6.5 in January from 7.6 in December. It was the third straight positive reading following more than a year's worth of negative figures. A January level of 8.1 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Figures back to 2015 were revised. These data, reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflect business conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is comparable to the ISM series. The adjusted figure improved to 50.9 from 48.5. It was the highest level since April and also the first to indicate positive growth in the same period. During the last ten years, the index posted a 63% correlation with the change in real GDP.
Amongst the index components, new orders, shipments and inventories each posted positive readings. Other series were negative, but improved versus December. The employment index jumped to -1.7, its least negative figure since August. During the last ten years, there has been a 69% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid series jumped to 36.1, the highest level since January 2014. A sharply increased 41.2% of respondents reported paying higher prices, while a fairly steady 5.0% reported them lower. The prices received index similarly surged to 17.6, its highest point since April 2012.
The reading of expected business conditions six months ahead held steady at an elevated 49.7, which represented the highest degree of optimism since January 2012.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes, which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting declines from those reporting gains. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index dates back to 2001. The Action Economics Forecasts can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Evolving Consumer Behavior from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'16||2016||2015||2014|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA)||6.5||7.6||2.2||-16.8||-2.5||-2.3||11.9|
|General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA)||50.9||48.5||47.3||43.4||48.2||48.9||52.4|
|Number of Employees||-1.7||-12.2||-10.9||-13.0||-5.0||2.7||10.9|
|Average Employee Workweek||-4.2||-7.0||-10.9||-6.0||-5.4||-5.3||1.4s|
|Expectations 6 Months Ahead||49.7||49.7||31.1||10.4||29.0||30.3||40.2|