Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, W
indows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Tom Moeller

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 223,000 (5.2% y/y) during the week ended March 15 from 221,000 in the prior week, revised from 220,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 225,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average edged up to 227,000 from 226,250 and was the highest level since the first week of November.

The number of continuing unemployment insurance beneficiaries increased to 1.892 million (5.4% y/y) in the week ended March 8 from 1.859 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average rose to 1.876 million from 1.870 million in the prior week. It was the highest level since the second week of December.

The insured unemployment rate (the total number of claimants as a percent of covered employment) remained at 1.2%.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended March 1, the highest rates were in Rhode Island (2.97%), New Jersey (2.88%), Massachusetts (2.42%), Minnesota (2.50%) and California (2.39%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.35%), Alabama (0.43%), Virginia (0.46%), Tennessee (0.54%) and North	Carolina (0.55%) and Mississippi (0.57%). Rates in other notably large states include New York (1.95%), Pennsylvania (1.95%) and Texas (1.04%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Weekly claims are trending up.
- Continuing claims rise and also are trending higher.
- Insured unemployment rate is steady.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Higher in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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German PPI inflation fell by 0.2% in February for the headline series, ‘PPI excluding construction.’ The drop marks a string of declines in German headline PPI inflation. For the PPI excluding energy, inflation rose by 0.1% in February after a 0.1% rise in January and no change in December. This is a clear winning streak for German inflation trends at the producer level.

Inflation results from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months show German headline PPI inflation decelerating steadily and somewhat aggressively from an increase of 0.8% over 12 months to a -0.6% annual rate over six months to a -2.5% annual rate over three months. For the PPI excluding energy, German inflation is up 1.5% over 12 months, which eases to a 0.5% annual rate over six months, and then stabilizes but accelerates slightly at a 0.7% annual rate over three months. The performance and behavior of headline inflation obviously shows a great deal more weakness than in the PPI excluding energy. But both are well-behaved.

**Oil price trends**
Brent oil prices declined by 10% over the previous year and have declined by 8% over the most recent 12 months. Over six months they're falling at a 9% annual rate, but then over the last three months they've been increasing at a 9.5% annual rate. Monthly Brent oil prices fell slightly in December, fell by 3.8% in February, but rose by 6.5% in between, during the month of January. The oscillation in oil prices makes it just a little bit difficult to nail down the impact of oil prices on the inflation numbers, but generally oil has been weak and there has only been a slight amount of pressure from oil recently compared to past trends.

**German PPI component trends**
German PPI components are not seasonally adjusted; they generally show inflation is relatively stable. For consumer prices, the 12-month, 6-month and 3-month pace is just under 3%. For investment goods, inflation is accelerating slightly from 2% over 12 months to a 4.2% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods display growth rates for inflation that fluctuate between -0.9% at an annual rate over six months to +1.4% at an annual rate over three months. The PPI trends compare to CPI trends that are really quite flat with the headline CPI between 2.5 and 2.2% at an annual rate across horizons and the CPI excluding energy at a pace of expansion between 2.4% and 2.7%.

All-in-all German inflation appears to be contained and at a relatively low level. This should be a report that the European Central Bank is pleased with.

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**Sector inflation in EMU through January**
PPI inflation viewed in the EMU by sector across individual countries is up to date only through January; however, when we look at the trends through January, we see a clear tendency for inflation to rise. The diffusion calculations are largely showing values above 50% which means that inflation is accelerating across more categories by country than decelerating. Capital goods are the exception although there the diffusion reading of 36.4% over 12 months rises to 90.9% over 6 months and stays at 72.7% over 3 months. The table also shows the median of the inflation rate on various tenors also by category. Year-over-year for consumer goods, inflation acceleration is indicated as steady with diffusion at 60%; but the median actual gains show more pressure, acceleration is from 2.3% over 12 months to a 4.2% pace over 3 months. The twelve- to six- to three-month growth rates show clear acceleration in place for median prices for capital goods inflation over 12 months is at a 1.7% pace that moves up to 2.1% over 6 months and then to 2.5% over 3 months. Median inflation steadily accelerates from 12-month to 3-months, just as for consumer goods. Diffusion calculations rise above 50% confirming acceleration is broad-based. For intermediate goods, inflation rates are lower than for other categories, at 0.3% over 12 months and 0.3% over 6 months, then up to 0.9% over 3 months. Diffusion statistics are still high at 100% over 12 months, down to a neutral 50% over six months then back up to 70% over 3 months. Commodity price inflation is being held at bay. But inflation across capital and consumer goods is showing more momentum and pressure. Across the European Monetary Union for these 11-early reporting countries on data available through January, inflation trends are steady and mostly moderate. But trends show high diffusion readings that tell us that inflation pressure are intensifying. Still, inflation remains on a relatively moderate gradient overall and controlled. Good German inflation performance extends through February.

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Germany

German PPI Inflation Settles Down

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At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the target range for the Fed funds rate was left unchanged at January’s 4.25% to 4.50% level. This followed reductions at three consecutive meetings in the fall of 2024. Rates remain below the high of 5.25% to 5.50% in place in mid-September. Today’s target range matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The statement following the meeting reiterated the comment after the last meeting. “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

Also unchanged were comments on the outlook. “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”

The Fed continued, “Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. 

At today’s meeting, the Fed updated its economic projections. “Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes.”

Expected real GDP growth Q4/Q4 was lowered to 1.7%, 1.8% and 1.8% from 2.1%, 2.0% and 1.9% in 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively. The unemployment rate projection for Q4 2025 was raised to 4.4% from 4.3%, then left unchanged at 4.3% by the end of 2026 & 2027. The y/y PCE price inflation outlook for Q4 2025 was raised to 2.7% from 2.5%, then raised to 2.2% from 2.1% in 2026 and left unchanged at 2.0% in Q4 2027. Expected core PCE inflation for 2025 Q4/Q4 was raised to 2.8% from 2.5%, but 2026 & 2027 expectations were left at 2.2% & 2.0%.

The projected year-end Fed funds rate forecast was left unchanged at 3.9% for this year, 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027.

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- FOMC Committee expects funds rate to gradually fall over forecast period.
- Projections of economic growth are lowered, but expected inflation is raised.

FOMC Targeted Funds Rate Range Is Unchanged

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Mortgage applications declined 6.2% (+27.4% y/y) in the week ending March 14, after rising 11.2% in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications to refinance existing mortgages declined 12.8% (+69.6% y/y) in the week ended March 14 after rising 16.2% in the prior week. Applications for loans to purchase a home edged 0.1% (6.0% y/y) higher last week following a 7.0% increase in the week ended March 7.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan edged up to 6.90% in the week ended March 14 and reversed the prior week’s decline to 6.85%. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan was little changed at 6.22%. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan rose to 6.89% in the week ended March 14 from 6.82% in the prior week, while the rate on a 5-year ARM declined to 5.98% from 6.07% in the week ended March 7.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage fell to 42.0% in the week ended March 14 from 45.6% in the week of March 7. The share of loans that have an adjustable rate declined to 6.7% in the latest week from 7.2% in the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan fell 4.2% (+3.1% y/y) to $401,900 in the week ended March 14 after increasing 5.1% to $419,700 in the week ended March 7. The average size of a loan to purchase a home was $451,000, down 2.1% (+1.3% y/y) from $460,800 the week before. The size of a loan to refinance an outstanding mortgage declined 9.8% (+24.7% y/y) to $334,200 in the week ended March 14 from $370,600 in the week ended March 7.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loan refinance drop sharply.
- Mortgage rate increase is first in nine weeks.
- Decline in average loan size reverses earlier gain.

Mortgage Applications Decline as Rates Edge Higher in Latest Week

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**EMU inflation overview**
By category, inflation is not accelerating over shortening periods. The year-over-year chart shows inflation in the EMU is lower and less prone to rise over 12 months than other major monetary centers. But, break it down… to 12-months vs. 6-months…to 6-months vs. 12-months…to 3-months vs. 6-months and EMU inflation goes from accelerating over 12 months (compared to 12-months ago) to accelerating in 38% of categories over 6 months (compared to their 12-month pace) to accelerating in 53.8% of categories over 3 months (compared to their pace over 6-months). The inflation worm is beginning to turn within the EMU and within the one-year time horizon. And we know that what is next is more growth, more price pressure, and more military spending in the EMU because of change in upcoming fiscal policy. So, it is becoming clear that the ECB is not going to get back to its 2% target unless or until it is ready to raise rates again. And NO ONE is saying that yet.

**Core trends in EMU-** Core inflation shows prices better-behaved than headline inflation and across the four largest EMU nations. Inflation is excessive on core inflation year-on-year in Germany and Spain; over 6 months, in Germany and over 3 months, in both Germany and France. Inflation is accelerating on the core measure for German inflation over 6 months and for French and Spanish inflation over 3 months.

**Headline inflation-** By comparisons, headline inflation is flaring more but it is less stable, more mercurial, so these trends may not prove to be lasting. Still, headline inflation accelerates over 3 months compared to 6 months in three of four countries and is excessive (above 2%) in three of four of the largest EMU nations. Over 6 months, two of them are showing acceleration and excess inflation at the same time.

**Commodity level trends across EMU-** By commodity category or economic grouping, inflation is prone to accelerate as we note in the first paragraph. Contrarily, the monthly data show decelerating pressures while the sequential 12-, 6-, and 3-month data show a tendency to more acceleration. On monthly data, inflation accelerates in 12 categories in December, in 6 categories in January and in 4 categories in February.

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Three-month inflation is rising (more than not) compared to 6-months. 6-month inflation is mostly an accelerating issue for headline inflation

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**Summing up**
Cross currents in inflation are severe. Inflation trends point in different directions over differing horizons. It is hard to form firm conclusions from past data trends except to the extent that past trends do not agree on any direction and currently inflation is excessive. Since the Euro-fiscal winds have shifted, the much better bet at the moment is that Euro inflation may now be at or near its low and after this it is likely headed higher, and then ECB rates will likely have to rise.

Europe

EMU Inflation Pace Is Lower Y/Y; Still Too High- and Not Clearly Falling or Prone to Fall

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Total housing starts increased 11.2% (-2.9% y/y) during February to 1.501 million units (SAAR) after falling 11.5% (revised from -9.8%) in January to 1.350 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.378 million starts. Single-family starts rose 11.4% (-2.3% y/y) in February after declining 8.6% in January. Multi-family starts rebounded 10.7% (-4.6% y/y) to 393,000, following an 18.8% January drop. Total starts in February remained 17.9% below their peak of 1.828 million units reached in April 2022.

Starts increased in three of the four major regions in February. They rose 47.4% (20.2% y/y) to 143,000 in the Northeast, following a 34.0% January decline. In the South, starts rose 18.3% (-5.6% y/y) to 815,000 after falling 23.0% in January. In the West, starts increased 5.9% (26.2% y/y) to 410,000 after rising 38.2% in January. In the Midwest, starts fell 24.9% (-44.4% y/y) TO 133,000 following a 13.2% January decline.

Building permits fell 1.2% (-6.8% y/y) to 1.456 million in February, the third straight month of modest decline. Single-family permits eased 0.2% (-3.4% y/y) in February to 992,000, the same decline as in January. Multi-family permits weakened 3.1% (-13.4% y/y). Permits fell 15.3% (-45.8% y/y) in the Northeast and were off 7.6% (-8.8% y/y) in the West. Building permits in the Midwest rose 8.9% (3.0% y/y) and in the South they increased 1.0% (1.5% y/y).

The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Both single-family and multi-family starts recover.
- Starts’ performance is regionally uneven.
- Building permits decline to four-month low.

U.S. Housing Starts Rebound Sharply in February After January’s Pullback

Winnie Tapasanun

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Industrial production (IP) rose a larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m (1.4% y/y) in February after a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in January (+0.5% initially) and an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in December (+1.0% previously), data from the Federal Reserve Board showed. The February m/m rise was the third consecutive m/m gain following three successive m/m declines. A 0.2% m/m February increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The February IP index at 104.2 was the highest on record; it was 5.3% above a low of 99.0 in September 2021 and 9.1% above a low of 95.5 in February 2021.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production rose 0.9% (0.7% y/y) in February, the fourth straight m/m rise, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in January (-0.1% initially) and a 0.5% rise in December (unrevised). Durable goods production grew 1.6% (0.1% y/y) in February, the third m/m gain in four months, after holding steady in January. This reflected m/m output rises of 8.5% (-4.8% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 2.7% (4.3% y/y) in wood products, 2.1% (3.5% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 2.0% (6.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.4% (-2.1% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.3% (-5.5% y/y) in miscellaneous durables goods, 0.3% (1.5% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.2% (7.0% y/y) in computer & electronic products, and 0.1% (-0.8% y/y) in machinery. In contrast, the following durable goods categories fell m/m in February, including output drops of 1.0% (-3.7% y/y) in furniture & related products and 0.3% (-0.3% y/y) in primary metals. Notably, aircraft & parts production rose 2.3% (4.4% y/y) in February, the fourth consecutive m/m rise, on top of a 10.3% gain in January.

Nondurable goods production was up 0.2% (1.6% y/y) in February, the fifth m/m increase in six months, after a 0.1% uptick in January. The February increase reflected m/m output rises of 1.3% (-3.4% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 1.0% (5.8% y/y) in chemicals, 0.9% (2.7% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 0.9% (0.7% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 0.4% (-4.7% y/y) in plastics & rubber products, and 0.1% (0.0% y/y) in paper. To the downside, the following nondurable goods categories fell m/m in February, including output drops of 0.7% (-0.7% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco and 0.4% (+2.7% y/y) in petroleum & coal products.

Mining activity rose 2.8% (0.0% y/y) in February, up from the second month in three, following a downwardly revised 3.2% decline in January (-1.2% initially). Utilities output, however, slid 2.5% (+8.7% y/y), the first m/m slide since November, after a downwardly revised 6.1% January gain (+7.2% initially).

By **market groups**, business equipment output rose 1.6% (-0.6% y/y) in February, the fourth successive m/m rise, after a 1.5% increase in January. Construction supplies production recovered 1.0% (0.7% y/y) after a 0.6% January drop and materials production rose 1.0% (2.3% y/y) following a 0.3% January decline; both registered the second m/m gain in three months. Consumer goods output increased 0.2% (0.7% y/y) in February after rising 0.8% in January and December, reflecting a 4.3% rebound (-5.2% y/y) in durable consumer goods and a 0.8% drop (+2.4% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 1.4% (12.6% y/y) in February, the seventh m/m rise in eight months, after an upwardly revised 3.5% advance in January (+0.2% initially). Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries was up 0.9% (0.4% y/y) in February, the third m/m gain in four months, after virtually unchanged in January; manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts grew 0.3% (0.8% y/y), the third straight m/m increase, after a 0.4% January rise.

Capacity utilization rose to 78.2% in February, the highest since June, from a downwardly revised 77.7% in January (77.8% initially). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 77.8%. The February reading was 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization rose to 77.0% in February, the highest since August, from an upwardly revised 76.4% in January (76.3% initially); the February rate was 1.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Feb. IP +0.7% (+1.4% y/y) after +0.3% (+2.0% y/y) in Jan.; IP Index highest on record.
- Mfg. IP +0.9% m/m, led by an 8.5% jump in auto production (w/ durable goods up 1.6% and nondurable goods up 0.2%).
- Mining activity rebounds 2.8%, the second m/m rise in three months, while utilities output drops 2.5%, the first m/m fall since Nov.
- Key categories in market groups all increase.
- Capacity utilization rises to an eight-month-high 78.2%.

U.S. Industrial Production Rises for the Third Straight Month in February

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Import prices rose 0.4% (2.0% y/y) during February after increasing by the same amount in January, revised from 0.3%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Export prices rose 0.1% (2.1% y/y) after increasing an unrevised 1.3% in January. A 0.2% decline had been expected.

Foods, feeds & beverage import prices held steady (+8.2% y/y) last month after rising 0.2% in January. Fuels & lubricants prices rose 1.7% (2.8% y/y), the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Capital goods import prices eased 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) after rising 0.1% in January. Motor vehicle & parts import costs held steady (+1.4% y/y), while nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.4% (-0.1% y/y). Import prices excluding fuels rose 0.3% (2.0% y/y).

In February, export prices of foods feeds & beverages increased 0.9% (2.3% y/y) after holding steady in January. Industrial supplies & materials prices were unchanged last month (+2.9% y/y) following a 3.2% strengthening. Capital goods export prices improved 0.1% (1.5% y/y) after surging 1.8% in January. Motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after dipping 0.1% in January. Consumer goods export prices less autos gained 0.6% (1.3% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. Agricultural commodity prices rose 0.8% (0.6% y/y) while nonagricultural product costs edged 0.1% higher (2.2% y/y) after strengthening 1.5% in January.

Each of these monthly trade price numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Import price rise led by fuels & lubricants.
- Export price increase reflects stronger food prices.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Increase During February

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) edged 0.1% higher (-0.4% y/y) during the four weeks ended March 21, 2025. The rate of price improvement, however, slowed considerably from its 1.8% four-week high at the end of February. The level of the index stood at its highest point since the second week of October 2024.

Prices in the Metals group increased 4.3% (11.3% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Tin prices rose 7.8% (26.5% y/y) in four weeks while lead prices increased 5.6% (0.5% y/y) in four weeks. Steel scrap costs rose 5.0% (-1.6% y/y) in four weeks and copper scrap costs increased 4.8% (10.7% y/y). Zinc prices improved 2.9% in four weeks (17.3% y/y), while aluminum costs edged 0.3% higher (21.0% y/y) in four weeks.

Miscellaneous group prices improved 0.1% during the last four weeks and rose 0.6% y/y. Framing lumber prices jumped 7.5% over the last four weeks and increased 9.1% y/y. The price of natural rubber eased 0.6% (-7.7% y/y) while tallow prices fell 8.3% (+17.9% y/y) in four weeks.

Textile group prices eased 0.4% (-3.7% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs slipped 0.3% but rose (+13.4% y/y). The cost of cotton fell 2.5% (-27.7% y/y) in the latest four weeks.

Prices in the Crude Oil & Benzene group declined 6.2% (-15.6% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil slumped 6.2% to $67.37 per barrel and was 17.7% lower y/y. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, weakened 18.7% (-39.0% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 0.5% (0.7% y/y) during the last four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Metals prices surge.
- Lumber prices strengthen.
- Crude oil costs decline.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Are Little Changed in Latest Four Weeks

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The INSEE industry climate index settled lower in March at 95.9, down from 97.0 in February. The index is lower than its year-ago value of 102.1 and since 2001 it has been this low or lower only 7.5% of the time. Despite the sense of some stability in manufacturing in the tabular data for the last year, the chart (of data since 2014) and the table’s own presentation of the queue standing reveals manufacturing to be at a relative weak standing in March.

Manufacturing production expectations have a 34.4 percentile standing but did improve slightly from the February reading of -14.8. The recent trend of production weakens on the month to a lower quartile standing at its 23.7 percentile. The personal likely trend, which is the reading for each respondent gives to the prospects for his own industry, ticked higher in March to a 40.5 percentile standing. That is better than the percentile for industry over all but still below the level that marks the historic median – a standing at the 50th percentile.

Orders and demand as well as foreign orders and demand each weakened. They each have standing at or below their respective 20th percentile around the lower one-fifth of all historic readings. In addition, the March reading for orders and demand are substantially weaker than they were a year ago and the slippage has been worse for foreign orders.

In contrast, inventory level show few changes and are similar to their year-ago readings and close to their historic median.

Prices have moved to lower readings in recent months. However, price trends and level readings are higher than they were a year ago. In terms of rankings, the own likely price trend is at a 61.5 percentile standing, above its historic median while the manufacturing price level has a relatively weak 36.1 percentile standing.

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