Global| Dec 27 2019State Coincident Indexes
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Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for November continue to show some divergence in activity across the nation. Over the last 12 months, only 27 states report increases in their index in the [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for November continue to show some divergence in activity across the nation. Over the last 12 months, only 27 states report increases in their index in the 2 to 4 percent range, the lowest number in that mid-range in some time. 7 states, all more or less mid-sized, saw growth higher than 4 percent with Utah's gain of a bit more than 6 percent the largest. Texas, California, and Florida all had increases above 3 percent, but New York ranked 38th, with a gain just above 1 ½ percent. No state saw a decline; Oklahoma was lowest, with an increase less than ½ percent. Although in general Western states (except for Alaska and Hawaii) saw larger gains than those in the East, there were high and low growth states in all areas to the east.
Over the three months ending in November 21 states had gains of less than .5 percent, with 7 outright declines. Delaware and West Virginia again reported the largest declines, and Pennsylvania was also down. 12 states had gains above 1 percent in this period, including California and Florida. As was the case in October's initial report, both Utah and South Carolina had 3-month increases greater than 2 percent.
In another repeat of October (but with the order reversed), South Carolina and Utah led in the one-month gains from October to November, while 10 states, including Pennsylvania and New Jersey registered declines. Michigan's .52 percent increase, obviously reflective of the end of the GM strike, was fifth.
In general, the November report was very similar to October's, despite stronger job growth. The coincident indexes are so constructed that the weight of a sharp move, up or down, is downplayed.
Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.