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Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Robert Brusca

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The ZEW survey, which is a survey of German financial experts, showed a weakening in March as the **economic situation** deteriorated sharply in the wake of the start of the war in Iran. For the euro area, the reading dropped to -29.9 in March from -13.6 in February; for Germany, the reading surprisingly improved a slight bit to -62.9 from -65.9; for the United States, a positive reading of 4.5 was still posted; however, it was down significantly from +19.6 in February. China’s reading fell to -33.7 from -31.5. The rank standings for these readings on data back to late-1992 for most reporters, but only back to April 2021 for China, shows the euro area at a reading near its median over this span. While Germany and the U.S. are substantially below their medians, with percentile standings near 30% for Germany and near the 40th percentile for the U.S. China logs a stronger queue standing above its median at 68.3%.

**Macro expectations** fell more clearly and sharply for all the reporters in March. For Germany, the drop was to -0.5 in March from +58.3 in February, while the U.S. drop was to -28.7 from -5.1 in February. China’s drop was to -15.8 from +13.1 in February. The standings for these March readings place China at a 1.7 percentile standing, the U.S. at a 16.1 percentile standing, and Germany at a 25.1 percentile standing. All of them are quite weak in the lower quartile of their respective queues of data.

With oil prices jumping sharply, **inflation expectations** have simply skyrocketed on the month. For the euro area, the reading that was near 0 in February jumped to 79 in March. For Germany, a reading of -2.3 in February surged to 79.2 in March. For the U.S., an inflation expectation of 43.1 in February nearly doubled to 80.4 in March. For China, a February reading of 10.5 ran up to 56.0 for March. The queue percentile standings for the March readings rose to the 98th percentile for the euro area, Germany, and the U.S., while China's standing also moved up strongly to its 93rd percentile, when ranked over a shorter period extending back to April 2021.

With inflation going up, **short-term interest rate expectations** rose as well. Those expectations rose in the euro area, the U.S., and China. For each of these reporters, there was a significant increase in the short-term rate expectations. The euro area expectation survey value has a standing in its 70.9 percentile, China’s standing is at its 55th percentile, while the U.S. standing is still below its median at its 22.4 percentile.

**Long-term rate expectations** moved up in all areas as well, with Germany's new reading having a 66.8 percentile standing, China at a 75th percentile standing, and the U.S. at a 59th percentile standing. Each one of these is above its historic median. Long-term expectations are elevated.

**Stock markets** in all areas weakened in March compared to February, with most showing declines of about 50% or so in this survey. The queue standings for the new readings are all in the lower 25th percentile of their respective data queues. Some of them are significantly lower, such as Germany, which stands only in its 9th percentile. On balance, the attack in Iran has been a game-changer for economic perceptions and expectations. Markets are wary. And everyone knows the centerpiece is the Strait of Hormuz. But that does not make it much easier to handicap the future.

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Germany

Germany’s ZEW Survey Sours

Sandy Batten

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Industrial production (IP) rose a slightly larger-than-expected 0.2% m/m in February following an unrevised 0.7% monthly jump in January and small upward revisions to November (0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously) and December (0.3% m/m versus 0.2% m/m previously), according to data released by the Federal Reserve Board. The Action Economics Survey looked for a 0.1% monthly gain. The y/y rate slowed to 1.4% in February from 2.3% in January. The annual rate in February was the slowest since last August. However, IP has trended up over the past several months, growing at a 4.2% annual rate since last October although it is still 1.4% below its November 2018 peak.

Manufacturing output increased 0.2% y/y (1.3% y/y) in February following an upwardly revised 0.8% monthly gain in January (previously +0.6% m/m). Mining production increased by a solid 0.8% m/m (1.4% y/y) in February with the previously reported 0.2% monthly decline in January revised up meaningfully to a 0.9% monthly gain. This was the third monthly increase in mining in the past four months. Utilities output slid 0.6% m/m (+2.5 y/y), the first monthly decline in three months, after a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m increase in January (previously 2.1% m/m). This reflected unchanged electricity production and a 4.7% m/m decline in natural gas distribution.

Within manufacturing, durable goods production edged up 0.1% m/m (2.4% y/y) in February following an upwardly revised 1.1% monthly jump in January (previously 0.8% m/m). Activity in February was volatile across sectors. For example, output of electrical equipment and appliances rose 1.1% m/m and output of motor vehicles and parts jumped 1.7% m/m. By contrast, machinery output fell 1.2% m/m while miscellaneous production declined 1.1% m/m. Output of nondurable manufactured goods increased 0.2% m/m (0.3% y/y) in February after a 0.5% monthly gain in January (revised up slightly from 0.4% m/m). Output of plastics and rubber products rose 0.5% m/m in February on top of a 1.8% monthly jump in January; chemical production increased 0.9% m/m following a solid 1.2% monthly gain in January. By contrast, output of textiles slumped 1.7% m/m, and petroleum production declined 1.6% m/m, its first monthly decline in four months.

By market groups, output of consumer goods was unchanged in February (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.3% monthly increase in January (revised down from 0.7% m/m). Production of business equipment edged up 0.2% m/m (6.4% y/y) in February after a 0.9% m/m increase in January. Output of construction supplies dropped 0.2% m/m (+0.3% y/y) following a 1.1% monthly jump in January. Output of materials increased 0.3% m/m (1.7% y/y) in February on top of an 0.8% monthly gain in January.

In special classifications, output of selected high-tech industries rose 0.7% m/m (8.6% y/y) following an upwardly revised 2.6% monthly jump in January (previously 1.9% m/m). Output of motor vehicles and parts rose a solid 1.7% m/m (-0.7% y/y) in February on top of an upwardly revised 2.4% m/m surge in January (previously 1.3% m/m). The February gain was led by a 2.2% monthly increase in motor vehicle production. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries was up 0.2% m/m (1.0% y/y) in February after a 0.7% monthly rise in January. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles and parts was unchanged in February (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.6% monthly increase in January.

Capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.3% in February, 3.1%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average, from an upwardly revised 76.3% in January (previously 76.2%). The January/February reading was the highest since last July. Manufacturing capacity utilization was also unchanged at 75.6% in February, 2.6%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total industrial output increased 0.2% m/m in February, slightly larger than expected.
- There was no revision to January, but there were small upward revisions to November and December.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.2% m/m, mining rose 0.8%, while utilities production slid 0.6% m/m.
- The headline rate of capacity utilization was unchanged in February and remained well below its long-term average.

U.S. Industrial Production Edged Up in February

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Canadian orders fell by 3.3% in January after running flat in December and falling by 1.1% in November.

The top-line sequential growth in orders shows contraction over 12 months, six months, and three months, with the pace of contraction having gotten more severe over the most recent three months.

In January, orders declined, while unfilled orders rose but decelerated from their December growth rate. Manufacturing shipments fell, durables shipments fell, durable shipments excluding motor vehicles fell, and motor vehicle shipments fell. In addition, nondurables orders declined in January although at a lesser pace than in December.  Among this key batch of industrial statistics, only manufacturing inventories rose in January, increasing by 0.9%.

Progressive growth rates from 12 months to six months to three months show progressively weaker growth in shipments of durable goods, durables excluding motor vehicles, and motor vehicle shipments themselves. Inventories are also shrinking, and at a progressively faster pace over shorter periods. The headline series for orders shows a 16.5% annual rate contraction over three months, compared with a contraction pace of 7.4% over 12 months. There is no sign of stabilization in orders, and this shows up plainly in the data or on the chart.

The column heading marked “standing” shows that the standings of all the items listed in the stub are below 50%, placing each entry below its median based on data back to 1999. Judging from 12 month growth rates, the only exception is unfilled orders, which are right at the 50.4 percentile mark. For the most part, the shortfalls from their respective medians are quite severe, with the low standings for manufacturing shipments and durable goods shipments at 7.4%, out done only by a 1.8 percentile standing for motor vehicle shipments growth. The table also ranks the categories on six month growth rates, providing a slightly shorter term view to see how much conditions improve. On that basis, and viewed in that way, most of the rankings do improve. In fact, all rankings improve compared to the year over year growth rate rankings except for three: unfilled orders, durable goods shipments, and durable goods shipments excluding motor vehicles.

The six-year growth from January 2020 to date shows declines in real terms (inflation-adjusted net changes) for unfilled orders, durable goods shipments, durables shipments excluding motor vehicles, and inventories of manufactured goods. Increasing on balance over six years are orders and total manufacturing shipments, but by very thin margins. Motor vehicle shipments are up by 0.7% in real terms over six years, while nondurables shipments are up by 2.1% on balance over the same period. It has been a very difficult period for industry to cope with the strains from COVID, the war in the Ukraine, and more recently, the imposition of tariffs by the United States.

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Canada

Canada’s Industrial Orders Falter

Tian Yong Woon

In our Letter this week, we examine the ongoing Iran war through an Asian lens. Geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil prices have remained elevated (chart 1), despite early reports concerning the potential for a brief conflict that tempered investor caution. Attention has now centred on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil typically flows. With shipments now nearly halted (chart 2), much of the world’s energy flow has effectively stalled. While these developments have broad global implications, their impact on Asian economies is more nuanced. This partly reflects differences in energy mixes across the region (chart 3), as well as the historical relationship between oil prices and energy inflation (chart 4). Further compounding the challenges faced by Asian oil importers are currency effects: a broader risk-off turn in markets has weighed on several Asian currencies (chart 5), raising the local-currency cost of energy imports. Amid these pressures, several regional central banks are also set to decide on policy this week (chart 6), alongside major Western counterparts such as the Federal Reserve. Near-term rate cut expectations have been pushed back in many cases amid renewed inflation concerns, while in some Asian economies markets are even pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes.

**The Iran war**
Two weeks in, the Iran war continues with no clear end in sight. Crude oil prices and geopolitical risk therefore remain elevated, as shown in chart 1, despite earlier news that had briefly tempered investors’ heightened caution. Even reports that the 32 members of the International Energy Agency are set to release around 400 million barrels in emergency reserves have done little to curb the surge in crude prices. Latest reports indicate that reserves for Asia will be released immediately, while supplies for Europe and the Americas will only become available from the end of March. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to underpin elevated prices. The strait—currently blocked by Iran—handles roughly 20% of global oil flows. Iran has recently indicated that it may allow ships from certain countries to transit the waterway, though the situation remains fluid.

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To illustrate the severity of the current choke point along the Strait of Hormuz, chart 2 shows the 7-day moving average of shipping volumes through the strait, based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund. The average has effectively fallen to zero for tanker traffic, while overall shipping volumes—including container ships, dry bulk carriers, and other vessels—have also dropped close to zero. This stands in stark contrast to the multi-million metric tons of average daily shipping volumes typically observed previously. While such shipping estimates may not capture every vessel and can be partially circumvented, the broader picture remains clear: the flow of energy—the lifeblood of the global economy—is now severely constrained. Strategic reserves may provide a temporary buffer, but a prolonged blockage would be difficult to sustain indefinitely and could carry significant economic consequences.

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**Asia’s exposure**
While the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz presents a global oil supply shock, its implications for Asia are more nuanced. Among Asian economies, Singapore stands out with the highest oil share in primary energy consumption—nearly 90%—while China has the lowest at just above 18%, as shown in chart 3. Other Asian economies generally fall between 25% and 50%. China’s relatively low oil share largely reflects its greater reliance on other energy sources, particularly coal and renewables. A high oil share in energy consumption alone does not necessarily constitute a major vulnerability in the context of an external supply shock. However, many Asian economies remain heavily dependent on imported oil to meet their energy needs. The combination of these two factors—significant oil intensity in energy consumption and high reliance on oil imports—places much of the region in a potentially precarious position.

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Given Asia’s exposure to external oil supply shocks—now immediately visible through higher oil prices—one of the most direct channels of concern is inflation. Chart 4 illustrates what could potentially unfold, based on the historically strong correlations between Asian economies’ energy-related components of CPI inflation and Brent crude oil prices, which serve as a benchmark for global crude prices. In several cases, the relationship is substantial; for example, Thailand records a five-year correlation coefficient of nearly 0.8. That said, the relationship is not uniformly strong across all economies. In places such as Taiwan and South Korea, the correlation appears weaker, which may partly reflect domestic policy measures such as price caps—though the durability of such interventions remains uncertain. Moreover, governments that maintain energy subsidies or similar support mechanisms could face increasing fiscal strain, as higher global oil prices gradually erode available fiscal resources.

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As if these pressures were not sufficient, Asia’s oil importers also face compounding currency effects. The deterioration in the global geopolitical environment has dampened risk sentiment broadly, which often weighs on Asian currencies, as shown in chart 5. With crude oil prices surging due to the supply shock, and regional currencies weakening at the same time, the cost of importing oil is being pushed higher by two forces simultaneously—higher global oil prices and adverse exchange rate movements. This dual pressure further amplifies the burden on many Asian economies that rely heavily on imported energy.

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**Monetary Policy**
Given the ongoing surge in crude oil prices and the still-fluid situation in the Middle East, it is perhaps unsurprising that market expectations for near-term central bank easing in several economies have been dialled back. In some cases, expectations of rate hikes have even begun to build, largely on the back of renewed inflation concerns. That said, if the spike in crude oil prices ultimately proves transitory, there would in principle be little reason to delay policy easing if economic conditions warrant it. The key uncertainty now lies in how long the current surge will persist. Alongside the Americas and Europe, Asia will see a series of central bank decisions in the coming week, including from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia, and Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Unlike in many other economies—where investors largely expect policy rates to remain unchanged in the near term—markets are pricing in another 25-basis-point rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting this week. Meanwhile, expectations for near-term rate cuts by Bank Indonesia may be pushed further out, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran and the associated inflation risks.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Strait Squeeze

Michael J. Moran

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New figures show that real GDP grew 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, revised down from the initial estimate of 1.4%. The pace was among the slowest of the past few years, but the result was not especially troubling, as the government shutdown acted as a notable constraint on economic growth. Federal spending fell 16.7% in Q4, which subtracted 1.2 percentage points from the advance in GDP.

Other sectors performed reasonably well, as shown by an increase of 1.9% in final sales to private domestic purchasers, a pace close to the economy’s potential. (In addition to government spending, final sales to private domestic purchasers excludes the influence of net exports and inventory investment. It is sometimes called private domestic final demand – PDFD.)

Although the pace of PDFD was respectable, it was the source of most of the downward revision to GDP growth, with the new figure one-half percentage point off the initial estimate of 2.4%. Consumer spending made the largest contribution to the downward revision with growth slowing from 2.4% to a still-respectable 2.0%. Most of the adjustment occurred in the service area, but spending on services remained firm with growth of 2.7%.

Business investment spending also was lighter than previously believed (2.3% versus 3.7%). The revision, however, was not especially surprising, as most of the adjustment occurred in construction of business structures, which has been notably soft recently. Indeed, investment in structures has now declined for eight consecutive quarters. Business outlays for software also were revised downward (3.8% versus 7.1%), but spending on equipment was a bit firmer than previously estimated (3.9% versus 3.2%).

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Consumer spending and business investment in structures accounted for most of the adjustment.
- Although growth was slow, the results were not alarming.

Revised Q4 GDP: Downward Adjustment Leaves Modest Growth

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The monthly report on personal income and consumption contains a wealth of information on the earnings and spending of households, but the price measures in the report are likely to receive more scrutiny than the other measures. Two factors account for the keen interest in the inflation figures. The price index for personal consumption expenditures is the measure targeted by the Federal Reserve, and thus observers will be using the index to assess the likelihood of additional easing in monetary policy. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East is drawing more attention to inflation risks.

The inflation results for January were unfavorable, with the headline measure increasing 0.3% and the index excluding food and energy advancing 0.4%. The latest results left the year-over-year advance in the headline measure at 2.8%, down one tick from the reading in January, but still noticeably above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. The increase in the core index pushed the year-over-year change to 3.1% versus 3.0% in January. Both the direction of change and the deviation from target are likely to weigh heavily on Fed deliberations.

The inflation readings in the report dampened firm increases in nominal income flows. Total personal income rose 0.4% in January, but this nominal advance translated to a real gain of only 0.2% (and rounding up to get there; 0.152% when calculated with more precision). Employee compensation was among the strongest components of income with an increase of 0.5% (0.2% in real terms). Dividend income was robust with an increase of 2.0%, but it is perhaps too early to get excited about the increase. Dividends also rose sharply in January of 2024 and 2025 only to be largely offset by declines in February. Hold the champagne until next month.

Although income growth was respectable, consumers spent cautiously. Nominal outlays rose 0.4%, but this translated to an increase of only 0.1% after adjusting for inflation. The modest increase sets the stage for a possibly slow quarter for consumer spending in the GDP accounts. If real outlays were to remain at their January level for the next two months, growth of real consumer spending in the GDP accounts would total only 0.8% in Q1. Increases of 0.2% in both February and March would lift growth of consumer spending to 1.6% in the first quarter, still noticeably shy of the 2.9% average in the prior three years.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The inflation rate for personal consumption expenditures remains uncomfortably high.
- Solid income growth, but cautious spending by households.

Personal Income and Consumption

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Total job openings increased 6.0% m/m (-6.5% y/y) to 6.946 million in January from 6.550 million in December (previously 6.542 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. General market expectations were for a slightly smaller increase. The job openings rate (the ratio of openings to nonfarm employment plus openings) rose to 4.2% from 4.0% in December. In January the number of unemployed fell while openings rose, meaning that the excess of unemployment over openings declined. Nonetheless, the number of unemployed continued to exceed the number of openings for the sixth consecutive month. Prior to that, openings had exceeded the number of unemployed since May 2021.

Private sector openings increased 6.3% m/m (+370k) to 6.198 million, also their highest level in three months. Accordingly, the private sector openings rate rose to 4.4% from 4.1% in December. Gains were widespread across major industries, led by 169k increase in finance openings, 150k increase in healthcare openings, 130k increase in retail trade openings, and 69k rise in manufacturing openings. In contrast, professional and business services openings fell 190k and construction openings slipped 14k. Total government openings increased 26k, almost all accounted for a 25k increase in state and local government openings.

Total hiring edged up 0.4% m/m (+1.1% y/y) to 5.294 million in January, the highest level since last June, from 5.272 million in December. The hiring rate was unchanged at 3.3%. Private sector hiring inched up 0.3% m/m (+15k) to 4.976 million in January, again the highest level since last June. The private sector hiring rate was also unchanged at 3.7%. Meaningful monthly gains were posted by construction (23k), manufacturing (13k), professional and business services (35k), and leisure and hospitality (23k). In contrast, hiring fell 35k in trade and transportation and declined 43k in financial services. Government hiring increased 7k with gains fairly equally distributed between federal and state/local.

Total separations declined 1.9% m/m (-2.6% y/y) to 5.105 million in January from 5.203 million in December. The separation rate slipped to 3.2% from 3.3% in December. Private separations fell 1.9% m/m (-91k) to 4.773 million in January with the private separation rate declining to 3.5% from 3.6%. By industry, the January decline was more than accounted for by a 119k decline in separations in trade and transportation.

Within private sector separations, private sector quits fell 90k, layoffs declined 40k while other separations increased 39k. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Amid the volatility, quits stabilized somewhat last year after having trended down since early 2022. However, they remain at historically low levels, indicating that the labor market has lost some of its previous dynamism. In contrast, layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. After trending up over the past couple of years, layoffs have generally fallen over the past few months. Low levels of quits indicate that there is more difficulty finding a new job, while falling layoffs indicate that firms are less willing to lay off existing workers.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Openings rose 6.0% m/m to 6.946 million, the highest reading in three months.
- Hiring edged up 0.4% m/m to 5.294 million, its highest level since last June.
- Separations fell 1.9% m/m to 5.105 million with declines in both Quits and Layoffs.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings and Hiring Increase in January

Winnie Tapasanun

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New orders for durable goods were essentially unchanged m/m in January after a 0.9% decline in December (-1.4% initially) and a 5.4% rebound in November (unrevised), according to today’s advance report by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.5% m/m January increase. The year-on-year rate eased to 10.3% in January from 10.6% in December, remaining positive since January 2025 (3.8%). Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.4% (5.7% y/y) in January, the ninth straight m/m rise, after a 1.3% advance in December. Durable goods orders excluding defense grew 0.5% (9.5% y/y), the second m/m increase in three months, following a 1.9% December decline.

The flat reading in January durable goods orders reflected a 23.7% m/m plunge in orders for defense aircraft & parts following an 11.9% jump in December and a 3.5% increase in November. Orders for nondefense aircraft & parts rose 3.8% after a 22.8% December drop and a 98.2% November surge. Orders excluding aircraft grew 0.2% (6.5% y/y), the sixth m/m gain in seven months, after a 1.5% December rebound.

Durable goods orders for transportation fell 0.9% (+20.0% y/y) in January after a 4.6% fall in December, and orders for motor vehicles & parts fell 0.4% (+8.0% y/y) after a 1.4% December gain; both posted the third m/m decline in four months. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components slid 0.6% (+7.6% y/y) in January following two consecutive m/m increases. In contrast, orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.8% (7.8% y/y), the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 3.4% December increase. Orders for primary metals rose 0.8% (8.8% y/y) following a 2.4% December gain and two successive m/m declines. Orders for fabricated metal products climbed 0.6% (6.1% y/y), the seventh consecutive m/m gain, after a 0.9% December advance. Orders for all other durable goods increased 0.3% (1.5% y/y), up for the fifth consecutive month, after a 0.4% December gain. Machinery orders grew 0.2% (6.2% y/y), the ninth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.3% December increase.

Capital goods orders fell 1.1% (+18.9% y/y) in January, the third m/m fall in four months, after a 3.2% decline in December. Nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.9% (17.4% y/y) following a 6.7% December decrease. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) were flat (+4.3% y/y) after a 0.8% December increase (the sixth straight m/m gain). Defense capital goods orders dropped 11.8% (+29.2% y/y), down for the third time in four months, following a 21.6% December rebound. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—edged down 0.1% (+5.4% y/y), the first m/m easing since August, following a 1.0% December increase.

Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 0.5% (2.5% y/y) in January, the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.7% gain in December. Durable goods shipments grew 0.6% (6.4% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 1.2% December rebound. Nondurable goods shipments rose 0.4% (-1.2% y/y) following a 0.1% December uptick and four consecutive m/m declines.

Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.8% (11.1% y/y) in January, the sixth straight m/m gain, after a 0.9% rise in December. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders increased 0.4% (1.9% y/y), also up for the sixth consecutive month, following a 0.4% December rise.

Manufacturing inventories inched up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in January, the third successive m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in December. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.7% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month in January, while nondurable goods inventories dipped 0.1% (-0.5% y/y), the fourth m/m easing in five months, after a 0.2% December decline.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Headline orders -0.04% (+10.3% y/y) in Jan.; -0.9% (+10.6% y/y) in Dec.
- Defense aircraft orders -23.7% m/m in Jan. vs. +11.9% in Dec.; nondefense aircraft & parts +3.8% vs. -22.8%.
- Transportation orders -0.9%, third m/m fall in four mths.; orders ex transportation +0.4%, ninth straight m/m rise.
- Core capital goods shipments -0.1% following four consecutive m/m gains.
- Durable goods shipments +0.6%; unfilled orders +0.8%; inventories +0.2%.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Flat in January, Driven by a Plunge in Defense Aircraft Orders

Andrew Cates

**Oil and geopolitical risk**
Our first chart this week highlights the close relationship between geopolitical developments and oil prices, with both series moving sharply higher in recent weeks. The Caldara and Iacoviello geopolitical risk index has surged to levels not seen for some time, reflecting the escalation in tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude prices have responded, rising sharply above recent trading ranges as markets price in the risk of supply disruptions. The speed of the adjustment is notable and consistent with previous episodes where geopolitical shocks have fed rapidly into energy markets. What remains less clear at this stage is whether this represents a temporary spike or the beginning of a more persistent shift in the risk premium embedded in oil prices. Historically, short-lived geopolitical shocks have tended to fade relatively quickly, while more prolonged disruptions—particularly those affecting production or shipping routes—have had more lasting macroeconomic consequences.

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**The structure of global energy demand**
The second chart places the current episode in a longer-term structural context. Despite decades of policy focus on decarbonisation, the global energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Oil, natural gas and coal continue to account for the majority of primary energy consumption, with renewables increasing their share but from a relatively low base. Nuclear energy has remained broadly stable as a share of the total over the past 10 years. This composition matters because it implies that the global economy remains highly sensitive to disruptions in hydrocarbon supply. While the energy transition is progressing, it has not yet materially reduced exposure to oil price shocks. In practical terms, this means that geopolitical instability in key producing regions—particularly the Middle East—continues to carry significant macroeconomic implications. The persistence of fossil fuel dependence therefore acts as a key transmission mechanism through which geopolitical shocks can influence inflation, growth and financial markets.

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**Energy prices and consumption** 
The third chart highlights an equally important structural backdrop to the current oil shock. Global energy consumption per capita has trended higher over time, driven in large part by the industrialisation and urbanisation of China and, more broadly, the rising energy intensity associated with rapid growth in large emerging economies. At the same time, real consumer energy prices (OECD consumer energy prices deflated by core consumer prices) have also moved higher. The relationship between the two is not accidental. Strong growth in global energy demand—especially from heavy industry and construction—has helped place upward pressure on the real cost of energy over time. This matters because the recent rise in oil prices is not occurring in an environment of weak or stagnant underlying demand. Rather, it is hitting a global system in which energy demand has already been pushed higher by structural forces, while supply has often struggled to expand at the same pace. In that sense, the current geopolitical shock is amplifying an existing pressure point in the world economy.

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**Oil prices and interest rates**
The fourth chart illustrates how movements in energy prices are beginning to influence financial markets, particularly expectations for monetary policy. Short-dated government bond yields in the US, UK and Canada (and other major economies) have moved higher in recent weeks, reflecting a partial repricing of the expected path of policy rates. Markets have priced out much (if not all) of the easing that had previously been anticipated later this year. Historically, oil price increases have tended to affect monetary policy expectations through their impact on inflation. Higher energy prices can push up headline inflation and, if persistent, feed into broader price pressures. However, the adjustment in yields so far has been relatively modest compared with the scale of the move in oil prices. This potentially suggests that markets are not yet fully incorporating a more persistent inflationary shock and may still be assuming that the current rise in energy prices will prove temporary. If that assumption were to change, a more pronounced repricing of interest rate expectations could follow.

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**Sentiment and expectations**
The fifth chart turns to sentiment indicators, focusing in particular on the ZEW economic expectations survey, which often provides an early signal of shifts in the economic outlook. Euro area expectations have shown renewed volatility, with the latest ZEW readings pointing to a deterioration in forward-looking sentiment after a period of gradual improvement. This shift likely reflects rising concerns about the external environment, including higher energy prices and increased geopolitical uncertainty.

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**China and the global backdrop**
The final chart highlights recent developments in China’s investment cycle, where the latest data have surprised modestly to the upside. Fixed asset investment has returned to positive growth in early 2026, driven primarily by a strong pickup in infrastructure spending linked to the early implementation of the new Five-Year Plan. This marks a notable shift from the contraction seen late last year and suggests that policy support could now be gaining traction. Within this, there are tentative signs of stabilisation in the property sector at the margin. While real estate investment remains weak in level terms and house prices continue to decline, the pace of contraction has shown some signs of easing. This is important given the central role that housing has historically played in driving domestic demand.

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The past few weeks have seen a sharp escalation in tensions in the Middle East, triggering a rapid repricing across energy markets and a rise in geopolitical risk (chart 1). This comes at a time when the global economy is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels, leaving it structurally exposed to such shocks (chart 2), while longer-run increases in energy use per capita—driven in large part by industrialisation in China and elsewhere—have contributed to a rise in real energy prices over time (chart 3). Financial markets have been responding, with short-dated bond yields edging higher as expectations of monetary easing are reassessed (chart 4), and forward-looking sentiment indicators are showing early signs of softening (chart 5). At the same time, and of note, there are some tentative signs of stabilisation in parts of the global economy, notably in China where investment has picked up at the margin, supported by policy-led infrastructure spending (chart 6). Even so, it remains early days, and the balance of risks continues to tilt toward a more fragile outlook should the instability in the Middle East persist.

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Charts of the Week: Energy Shock — Early Signals, Uncertain Fallout

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