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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications rose 0.4% w/w (69.1% y/y) in the week ending February 20 after rising 2.8% w/w (57.7% y/y) in the week ending February 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 4.7% w/w (+13.1% y/y) in the latest week, following a decline of 2.7% w/w (+9.1% y/y) in the prior week.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 4.1% w/w (150.3% y/y) in the week ending February 20, after rising 7.1% w/w (131.8% y/y) in the February 13 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan dropped 9bps to 6.24% in the week ending February 20 from 6.33% in the week ending February 13. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages edged down 2bps to 5.66% in the latest week from 5.68% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 3bps to 6.32% in the February 20 week from 6.29% in the February 13 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 14bps to 5.38% in the week ending February 20 from 5.52% in the week ending February 13, reaching the lowest level since September 2022.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 58.6% of total applications in the February 20 week from 57.4% in the February 13 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity was unchanged at 8.2% in the February 20 week from the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged up 0.4% w/w (8.3% y/y) to $416,800 in the week ending February 20, after rising 2.3% w/w (8.6% y/y) to $415,100 in the week ending February 13. The average size of a purchase loan declined 1.1% w/w (+0.4% y/y) to $442,900 in the latest week, after rising 0.7% w/w (2.0% y/y) to $448,000 in the week ending February 13. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 2.0% w/w (34.3% y/y) to $398,400 in the week ending February 20, after rising 4.1% w/w (34.1% y/y) to $390,700 in the week ending February 13.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined in the latest week while refinancing loan applications rose.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans declined 9bp to 6.24%.
- Average loan size edged up.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Up in the February 20

Robert Brusca

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Climate eased in March after improving in February. There still is a net improvement compared to January, but we must turn the calendar back to April 2024 to find a climate reading lower than the current level in March. In sum, there is no sense of ongoing improvement for climate in this report. The economic expectations and income expectations readings, which lag by one month, do show some improvement on a longer timeline. But the propensity-to-buy index is still quite weak.
 
Climate at -24.7 in March has an 8.2 percentile standing on data back to 2002. The economic expectations, reading, fell back to 4.3 in February from 6.6 in January to set a 49-percentile standing. Income expectations rose to 6.3 in February from 5.1 in January. Income expectations have a 42.4 percentile standing. The propensity to buy weakened sharply to -9.3 in February from -4 in January. Its percentile standing is at a 30.7 percentile level, a bottom one-third standing.

The table also presents consumer confidence readings for three other European economies. Among them, Italy has the strongest ranking at a 74-percentiel standing. The Italian reading is up-to-date through January and has been showing improvement. The United Kingdom and France have similar standings. The U.K. standing is at its 43.7 percentile mark, below its median on this timeline. The U.K. reading is up-to-date through January and has been showing a tendency to improve. France has a rank standing at a 39.7 percentile; it is up-to-date through February. The index has been very slowly improving.

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The bottom line is that confidence has mostly stabilized in Germany and across Europe. But most of that is done at relatively weak levels of confidence. Italy is the exception, with an above median nearly top one-quarter standing—but it has no upward momentum. Stabilization sure beats deterioration, but the readings are weak and have been weak, and it is really time for Europe to be mounting a drive to better conditions. The sense of upward momentum across these confidence readings is extremely weak—mostly lacking. The never-ending war between Russia and Ukraine is one reason for this performance. Another has been the ongoing battle to reduce inflation, but that battle now seems to be nearly won. Still, it is not clear how much space exists to cut rates further. The Bank of England has to make more progress on inflation, and when it does, rates there can come down. But in the EMU, there may not be much more left in the way of monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, fiscal policy has been employed nearly to the max in France and in the United Kingdom. A good chunk of fiscal policy is being used to rebuild armaments as Euro-NATO has realized it must do more to protect itself. There continues to be a lot in play as 2026 unfolds.

Germany

German Confidence: GfK Consumer Climate Erodes

Michael J. Moran

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The index of consumer confidence published by the Conference Board rose 2.2 index points in February to 91.2, with the change coming from an upward revised level in January (now 89.0 rather than 84.5). The improvement is certainly welcome, but it does not meaningfully alter the picture of gloomy moods in the household sector. The preliminary index in January was below the low seen during the pandemic, and the new reading is only slightly above that trough.

The month-to month change in January was driven by the expectations component of the headline measure, which rose 4.8 index points to 72.0 (7.1%) from a revised level that was 3.2% firmer than previously believed. Individuals, though, are not especially optimistic about the future. The expectations measure still trails readings generally above 100 before the pandemic and it is light by historical norms (the measure is typically above 80 in non-recessionary periods or their aftermaths).

Assessments of the present situation naturally improved from the lows seen during the pandemic, but they never returned to pre-Covid levels and they have slipped considerably since early 2024. The latest figures did not meaningfully alter the picture. Although January results were revised 7.1% higher, the February index offset a portion of that gain by slipping 1.5%. The measure is not at a recession-like level, but it seems low for an economy that has low unemployment and is growing at a rate close to its potential.

The detail of the Conference Board report provides insight into factors that are fueling the sour moods of individuals. The loss of vigor in the labor market is perhaps the most important consideration. The monthly survey of consumers asks if jobs are plentiful or hard to get, and the difference in the in the shares responding optimistically and pessimistically has shifted markedly. After touching a record high of 47.1% in in 2022 (sharer saying jobs are plentiful less share saying Jobs are hard to get) the differential has eased to 6.8% in January before edging up to 7.4% in February. Like the assessment of the present situation, the job differential is not recession-like, as it has moved below 040% at times and the record low is 58.7% in 1982. Still, it shows that individuals very much sense a deterioration in the labor market.

Politicians have seized on affordability as a key campaign issue, and the Conference Board survey shows that individuals are sensitive to inflation. After the inflation burst in 2022, expectations of inflation one year hence cooled to 5% in late 2024. However, inflation views picked up in 2025, briefly touching 7% before easing to 5.5% in February – still a above the 2024 low and most readings in the years before the pandemic.

One factor that has not dampened the moods of individuals is the performance of the equity market. The survey asks if stock prices are likely to be higher, lower , or the same 12 month hence. Here, optimism reigns, with 53.1% of respondents in February looking for higher prices. Only 23.5% expect the stock market to lose ground.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Firmer expectations offset dimmer views on the present situation.
- Although views on the present situation dipped, assessments of the labor market picked up.

Consumer Confidence: Improvement in February from Upward Revised Levels in January, but Individuals Are Still Unhappy

Winnie Tapasanun

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U.S. house prices edged up 0.1% m/m in December after increases of 0.7% in November (+0.6% initially) and 0.4% in October (unrevised), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. December marked the fourth m/m increase in five months and the smallest of three consecutive m/m rises. The HPI reached a record high of 440.36 in December, up 14.4% from its August 2022 low of 384.78. The year-on-year growth rate slowed to 1.8% in December from a three-month-high 2.1% in November, remaining down from a high of 6.9% in February 2024 and well below a peak of 18.5% in February 2022. For all of 2025, FHFA house prices rose 2.9% after gains of 5.5% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2023.

The FHFA also released quarterly house price data today. In Q4'25, house prices grew 0.8% q/q, faster than a 0.3% increase in Q3'25, continuing their quarterly gains since Q4'22, with the exception of no change in Q2'25. The y/y growth rate decelerated to 1.8% in Q4'25 from 2.4% in Q3, 3.1% in Q2, and 4.3% in Q1.

House prices rose m/m in December (vs. November) in six of the nine census divisions. Gains were led by Middle Atlantic (+1.1% vs. -0.1%), followed by East North Central (+0.5% vs. +0.6%), Mountain (+0.4% vs. +0.8%), West North Central (+0.3% vs. +0.6%), South Atlantic (+0.2% vs. +0.7%), and New England (+0.1% vs. + 0.4%). In contrast, house prices fell m/m in two census divisions in December (vs. November): West South Central (-1.0% vs. +1.2%) and East South Central (-0.1% vs. +0.8%). Meanwhile, house prices in Pacific were essentially unchanged m/m in December after a 0.8% increase in November.

Year-on-year house prices continued to rise in December in six of the nine regions, except Mountain, Pacific, and South Atlantic. The y/y pace accelerated in December (vs. November) in three of the nine census divisions: East North Central (+5.2% vs. +5.1%), Middle Atlantic (+4.8% vs. +4.5%), and West North Central (+3.9% vs. +3.6%). Meanwhile, house price growth decelerated y/y in December (vs. November) in West South Central (+0.2% vs. +1.3%), East South Central (+2.1% vs. +2.9%), and New England (+2.7% vs. +3.5%). To the downside, Mountain (-0.6% vs. +0.4%), Pacific (-0.4% vs. 0.0%), and South Atlantic (-0.1% vs. +0.1%) posted y/y declines in December.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- FHFA HPI +0.1% (+1.8% y/y) in Dec., the smallest of three straight m/m gains.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions, led by Middle Atlantic (+1.1%), but down in West South Central (-1.0%) and East South Central (-0.1%); prices flat m/m in Pacific.
- House prices up y/y in six of nine regions, led by East North Central (+5.2%), but down in Mountain (-0.6%), Pacific (-0.4%), and South Atlantic (-0.1%).
- House price growth accelerates to 0.8% q/q (+1.8% y/y) in Q4'25 from 0.3% q/q (+2.4% y/y) in Q3.

U.S. FHFA House Price Growth Slows in December; Q4’25 Momentum Picks Up

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Neither the service sector nor the manufacturing survey value is particularly strong. The services climate headline has a 25-percentile standing; it has been higher about 75% of the time. That is not a good result. For manufacturing and industry, the standing is just short of the 50% mark which leaves it quite close to its historic median. That is not strong, but it is not weak either; it’s a modest middle ground. But February’s reading gave up ground, falling to 102.1 from 105.4 in January, back essentially to its December 2025 level. Even so, the February value has not been exceeded persistently until we go back to August 2022—three and one-half years ago.

The rebound in manufacturing is nascent; we can question its sustainability. And it is also only a modest step up after February’s erosion. Orders and demand flared higher in January and backed down in February. Orders and demand have a 50-percentile standing, with foreign orders much stronger at a 75-percentile standing. While production has a sub-median, 42-percentile standing, responses, when aggregated, show an ‘own-personal’ response standing at 62.2%. Maybe there is more granular, industry-level confidence that is being restrained by macroeconomic pessimism. This two-tier response is recreated compatibly for prices where firms see high own price trends stronger than their whole-economy trend. The own-price trends are elevated with a ranking over their 60th percentile while the macro price expectation is at a 48-percentiel standing. Production expectations are a classical representation of this month’s survey, falling back this month after some improvement last month and sporting a 49.1 percentile standing – a near median result. The manufacturing survey does not suggest any trouble; it exhibits near normal behavior, with orders at a midstream level/ranking.

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The services survey also backs off in February, but its ranking is weak, at the 25-percentile level. The 3-month and 12-month averages, when ranked, are ‘similarly’ weak—a clear sign that this services weakness is a real phenomenon. Only one-entry among the ten in the table has a ranked percentile standing over the 50-percent mark—that is the sales-price expected over the next three months. And that is not particularly reassuring. Employment trends, as observed and expected, rank in their 6th to 12th percentiles. Observed and expected sales trends are very low-ranking, and they weaken in February. The formal outlook is a lower one-third phenomenon, and it has been weakening.

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France’s trends play out on the chart. There are issues revealed here that are only made clear by looking at the chart and the ranking, and tying-in those trends with what was reported this month. The broadest view of the manufacturing & services sectors is upsetting. The medium-term view is more constructive, but only because of the industrial rebound. Yet, looked at up close, that rebound is too nascent to trust. The short term remains expensive for industry, but unreliably so. The French economy has been struggling for a while, and France has severe budget problems that are also creating political issues. French policy is under pressure, and remember that, as an EMU member, there is no central bank to dedicate policy to resolving its issues. EMU-wide inflation is more or less under control, but rate cutting stimulus is unlikely.

France

French Manufacturing and Services Surveys: Two Sectors, Two Different Trends, and Lingering Weakness

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Total factory orders unexpectedly fell 0.7% m/m in December after a 2.7% gain in November and a 1.2% drop in October, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. December marked the second m/m fall in three months following m/m increases in September and August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.8% m/m December increase. The year-on-year growth rate slowed to 4.3% in December from 5.4% in November (-1.8% in December 2024), remaining far below a peak of 39.6% in April 2021. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts plunged 24.8% m/m in December after a 98.2% surge in November and a 17.9% drop in October. Factory orders excluding defense fell 1.2% (+3.8% y/y) following a 3.2% November rebound. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.4% (1.2% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.1% November uptick. For all of 2025, factory orders gained 4.0% after a 0.5% decline in 2024 and a 0.3% increase in 2023.

Durable goods orders fell 1.4% (+10.1% y/y) in December after a 5.4% rebound in November (matching -1.4% m/m in the advance report on February 18). The December m/m fall was led by a 5.4% orders drop (+20.2% y/y) in transportation equipment following a 15.2% November jump. Other major durable goods orders categories rose m/m, led by a 3.1% gain (7.4% y/y) in computers & electronic products, followed by increases of 2.1% (9.1% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (3.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.5% (10.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (4.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, and 0.1% (4.5% y/y) in furniture & related products.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, were essentially unchanged (-1.4% y/y) in December after a 0.1% dip in November (the fourth successive m/m decline). The flat December reading reflected m/m increases of 2.1% (-0.7% y/y) in textile products, 1.9% (0.3% y/y) in apparel, 0.6% (3.4% y/y) in beverage & tobacco products, 0.6% (4.3% y/y) in chemical products, 0.3% (-0.1% y/y) in paper products, and 0.2% (-0.3% y/y) in food products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments declined m/m in December: petroleum & coal products (-1.3%; -13.4% y/y), textile mills (-1.0%; -1.4% y/y), leather & allied products (-0.5%; -7.8% y/y), and printing (-0.4%; -1.2% y/y). Meanwhile, shipments for plastics & rubber products were virtually unchanged (+0.5% y/y) after a 0.4% November rebound.

Total shipments rose 0.5% (2.2% y/y) in December, the second m/m rise in three months, following a 0.2% decline in November. Excluding transportation, shipments increased 0.4% (1.0% y/y), the third m/m gain in four months, after a 0.1% November uptick. Shipments of durable goods industries recovered 1.0% (5.8% y/y), also up for the third time in four months, after a 0.3% November decline. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments gains of 2.5% (7.2% y/y) in primary metals, 1.4% (8.8% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.3% (8.1% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (4.6% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.6% (5.1% y/y) in computers & electronic products, and 0.5% (1.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products. Durable goods shipments for furniture & related products (-0.3%; +4.0% y/y) and wood products (-0.3%; -3.9% y/y) fell m/m in December, while durable goods shipments for electrical equipment, appliances & components (+2.4% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (+2.3% y/y) were flat m/m.

Unfilled orders rose 0.9% (10.3% y/y) in December on top of a 1.4% advance in November, registering the fifth consecutive m/m rise and the seventh in eight months. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders grew 0.4% (1.6% y/y), the strongest of five straight m/m increases, after a 0.3% November rise. Backlogs of durable goods rose 0.9% (10.3% y/y) in December, led by m/m gains of 1.2% (16.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 1.0% (3.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, partially offset by a 0.1% decline (+2.2% y/y) in primary metals.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in December after a 0.2% rise in November and no change in October. Excluding transportation, inventories inched up 0.1% (1.2% y/y), the seventh m/m increase in eight months, after a 0.1% November uptick. Durable goods inventories grew 0.3% (1.5% y/y), the third successive m/m gain, after a 0.2% November rise, while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.2% (-0.1% y/y), the third m/m fall in four months, after a 0.1% November increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- December factory orders -0.7% m/m (+4.3% y/y); still 7.2% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods -1.4% m/m; nondurable goods orders flat; shipments +0.5% m/m.
- Transportation orders -5.4% m/m, led by a 24.8% plunge in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +0.9%, the fifth straight m/m rise.
- Inventories +0.1%, the second consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Fall in December on Weak Nondefense Aircraft Orders

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The National Activity Index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago totaled 0.18 in January, a jump of .39 index points from the reading in December. The latest tally was favorable. Not only did the measure post a sharp month-to-month change, but it also signaled that the economy is growing faster than its long-run trend rate. 

(The index is constructed to equal zero when the economy is growing at its long-run trend rate. Thus, positive readings suggest brisk growth. Negative readings should not necessarily be viewed as disappointing. Researchers at the Chicago Fed note that the index needs to ease to -0.7 before recession becomes a risk. The measure would be deeper in negative territory if the economy was contracting.)

Although January brought encouraging news, an element of caution is warranted. The index often moves erratically, and thus a single monthly change could be dominated by random volatility. A three-month moving average squeezes out most of the volatility, leaving a more reliable perspective on the economy. Here, too, the news in January was favorable, as the 3-month average rose .23 index points to -.06, just a shade below a signal of trend growth and the best reading since April of last year. The eight months between April 2025 and January showed an average index value of -.24, with observations ranging from -.13 to -.38.

The National Activity Index is a composite of 85 economic indicators, grouped into four major categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours worked; personal consumption and housing; sales, orders, and inventories. All four components improved month-to-month, with the production and income component providing most of the lift (up .22 index points to .19). Three of the four components were above zero in January, with only the sales, orders, and inventory in negative territory (and barely so at -0.02).

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- January results showed noticeable improvement from prior months.
- All four components contribute positively.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Suggesting Trend-Like Growth

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Germany's IFO index shows improvement in February compared to January. The climate index improves, the current conditions index improves, and expectations improve. All three all-sector headlines improve in February compared to January. However, all three metrics continue to register net negative readings, indicating that the sectors are showing more contraction than expansion, but less contraction than it had been the case previously. We ranked these headlines on data back to 1993; the climate index has a 22.5 percentile standing, expectations have a 22.4 standing, and current conditions have a 16.9 percentile standing. All three of the headline metrics have standings in the lower quartile of their queue of values back to the early 1990s. This is clearly not a stellar report but a report from an economy that is struggling. Even though it's widely reported that the climate index is currently on a six-month high; it may be on a six-month high, but it's not really much different than it was six months ago and only up by 1.1% from its lowest mark in the intervening five months—so not impressive. This is a grueling, crawling, dig-out from difficult circumstances. The COVID pandemic was a sucker punch to the global economy, and it was followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine that hit Europe especially hard because of the proximity.

Since then, other geopolitical tensions have risen. Europe's relationship with the United States has deteriorated, in part because Europe—Germany in particular—was reluctant to detach itself from its mercantile relationships with Russia and was also reluctant to increase its financial participation in NATO. The U.S. was carrying the burden of the protective umbrella for Europe at a time when Europe didn't really think it needed a protective umbrella and so it was unwilling to pay for anything more substantial. When the rainy day came and when the Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred, Europe was completely unprepared and the U.S. was its protector. While Germany and other European countries quickly made it clear that they were fully on board with NATO defense, the U.S. was much less enthusiastic about carrying the burden after Europe had put its financial probity ahead of its defense spending obligations. Now Europe does not see the U.S. and its perceived greater needs for security because of improved navigation from the Arctic Circle to the North Atlantic.

These troubles continue to dog the relationship between the United States and Europe, and the European Community. And Europe’s own economic struggles continue. In the climate readings, all four of five sectors improve from January to February. Current conditions improve in three of the five sectors, with retailing and wholesaling slipping month-to-month. Expectations do improve overall, but three of five sectors take a step back in February, with expectations improving sharply for services, and substantively for wholesaling. Still manufacturing, construction, and retailing expectations stepped back.

Across the three broad areas of assessment across five sectors in each, there are only two (two of fifteen) sector metrics that rank above their 50th percentile (above their respective medians) when ranked against readings back to 1993. Both of those elevated rankings are for construction, one for Climate, and the other for current conditions, but construction expectations, at a 44.5 percentile standing, are not far below their median.

Still, the lowest environmental standings are for services, except under expectations where the services reading is second-weakest to retailing. The graphic shows some tendency for an upturn in climate and current conditions, but they are countered by an expectations path that has topped out and has been gradually leaning lower—and doing that with a current ranking in only its 22.5 percentile. So, while there is some life in the IFO survey this month, we are still looking at a patient in intensive care, not one ready to join Olympic competition—at least not yet.

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German IFO: Business Confidence Claws Its Way Out of a Hole

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.4 in February, the fourth m/m decline in five months, after a 4.7-point rebound to 52.6 in January, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed. The February reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line, indicated that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the second successive month and only the third in 40 months. A reading of 51.8 for February had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The February manufacturing PMI, while above 50.0 in February 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, remained below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index fell to 53.5 in February from 55.9 in January (the highest level since February 2022), indicating production expanded for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower pace. The index was above its recent low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In February, 25.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 16.0% reported lower production. The new orders index declined to 55.8 in February from 57.1 in January (also the highest level since February 2022), signaling new orders expanded for the second straight month following four successive months of contraction. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023. In February, 30.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while a reduced 12.8% reported declines. The inventories index increased to 48.8 in February from 47.6 in January, marking the 10th straight month of contraction. The index was below its recent high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index rose to 55.1 in February from 54.4 in January, indicating slower delivery performance for the third consecutive month after faster deliveries in November. In February, 14.0% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.8% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index increased to 48.8 in February from 48.1 in January, showing that employment contracted for the 29th straight month after a brief expansion in September 2023; however, February’s contraction was the slowest since January 2025. The index was above its recent low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below its recent high of 49.7 in January 2025 and a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In February, 18.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 20.4% reported less hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index jumped to 70.5 (NSA) in February from 59.0 in January, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 17th consecutive month and at the fastest pace since June 2022. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but significantly below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. An increased 45.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices in February while only 4.4% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index edged up to 50.3 in February from 50.2 in January, indicating new export orders expanded for the second successive month following 10 months of contraction. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from its recent high of 52.4 in January 2025 and a high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index rose to 54.9 in February from 50.0 in January, suggesting imports expanded the first time since March 2025 and reached the highest level since February 2022. The index was above a low of 39.9 in May 2025. The order backlog index advanced to 56.6 (NSA) in February from 51.6 in January, showing that backlog levels expanded for the second straight month and hit the highest level since May 2022. The index was well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but far below a peak of 70.6 in May 2021.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Mfg. PMI at 52.4 in Feb.; second consecutive month of expansion and only the third in 40 mths.
- Production (53.5) expands for the fourth straight mth.; new orders (55.8) expand for the second successive mth.
- Employment (48.8) contracts for the 29th straight mth. but at the slowest pace since Jan. ’25.
- Prices Index (70.5) hits its highest since June ’22, w/ prices rising for the 17th consecutive mth.
- Exports (50.3) expand for the second straight mth.; imports (54.9) reach the highest level since Feb. ’22.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Slips in February, Still Indicating Expansion

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**TOURISM** → Countries and Special Areas Listed Alphabetically → **Armenia** → Regional Hotel Statistics

Hotel statistics for Armenia were added to the **TOURISM** database. Concepts include number of hotel facilities, revenues, and number of employees. Series for total Armenia plus 10 regions across the country are available. Annual data are sourced from the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia and start in 2011.

Chart: Armenia’s tourism has been booming in recent years and their goal is clear: 3 million annual visitors by 2030. The capital of Yerevan and regions such as Tavish, Syunik, and Lori have seen significant increases in the number of hotels since 2022 – Yerevan with 192, 96 in Tavish, and over 60 each in Syunik and Lori. Each region leveraging what they have to offer – cultural & religious sites, gastro-tourism, and alpine terrain with world-class ski resorts.

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**EMERGEPR** → **Hong Kong** → Manufacturing, Trade and Services → Online Retail Sales

Online retail sales statistics for Hong Kong were added to **EMERGEPR**. Series include values in HK$ and percent shares of total retail sales for online retail sales, nonstore retailing, and other retail outlets. Monthly data are sourced from the Census and Statistics Department and start in January 2020.

Chart: Total retail sales in Hong Kong rose 6.6% YoY to 35b HK$ in December 2025. Online sales made up 8.8% of the total and surged 30.9% from a year earlier to $3.1b. For 2025 as a whole, total retail sales were up only 1% from 2024, while online sales rose 12.8%. Continued e-commerce growth and rising visitor numbers are expected to support the retail sector going forward, however HK is facing a structural shift in retail since 2019 due to multiple factors, rather than just a temporary downturn.

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