Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Andrew Cates

**Oil and geopolitical risk**
Our first chart this week highlights the close relationship between geopolitical developments and oil prices, with both series moving sharply higher in recent weeks. The Caldara and Iacoviello geopolitical risk index has surged to levels not seen for some time, reflecting the escalation in tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude prices have responded, rising sharply above recent trading ranges as markets price in the risk of supply disruptions. The speed of the adjustment is notable and consistent with previous episodes where geopolitical shocks have fed rapidly into energy markets. What remains less clear at this stage is whether this represents a temporary spike or the beginning of a more persistent shift in the risk premium embedded in oil prices. Historically, short-lived geopolitical shocks have tended to fade relatively quickly, while more prolonged disruptions—particularly those affecting production or shipping routes—have had more lasting macroeconomic consequences.

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**The structure of global energy demand**
The second chart places the current episode in a longer-term structural context. Despite decades of policy focus on decarbonisation, the global energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Oil, natural gas and coal continue to account for the majority of primary energy consumption, with renewables increasing their share but from a relatively low base. Nuclear energy has remained broadly stable as a share of the total over the past 10 years. This composition matters because it implies that the global economy remains highly sensitive to disruptions in hydrocarbon supply. While the energy transition is progressing, it has not yet materially reduced exposure to oil price shocks. In practical terms, this means that geopolitical instability in key producing regions—particularly the Middle East—continues to carry significant macroeconomic implications. The persistence of fossil fuel dependence therefore acts as a key transmission mechanism through which geopolitical shocks can influence inflation, growth and financial markets.

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**Energy prices and consumption** 
The third chart highlights an equally important structural backdrop to the current oil shock. Global energy consumption per capita has trended higher over time, driven in large part by the industrialisation and urbanisation of China and, more broadly, the rising energy intensity associated with rapid growth in large emerging economies. At the same time, real consumer energy prices (OECD consumer energy prices deflated by core consumer prices) have also moved higher. The relationship between the two is not accidental. Strong growth in global energy demand—especially from heavy industry and construction—has helped place upward pressure on the real cost of energy over time. This matters because the recent rise in oil prices is not occurring in an environment of weak or stagnant underlying demand. Rather, it is hitting a global system in which energy demand has already been pushed higher by structural forces, while supply has often struggled to expand at the same pace. In that sense, the current geopolitical shock is amplifying an existing pressure point in the world economy.

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**Oil prices and interest rates**
The fourth chart illustrates how movements in energy prices are beginning to influence financial markets, particularly expectations for monetary policy. Short-dated government bond yields in the US, UK and Canada (and other major economies) have moved higher in recent weeks, reflecting a partial repricing of the expected path of policy rates. Markets have priced out much (if not all) of the easing that had previously been anticipated later this year. Historically, oil price increases have tended to affect monetary policy expectations through their impact on inflation. Higher energy prices can push up headline inflation and, if persistent, feed into broader price pressures. However, the adjustment in yields so far has been relatively modest compared with the scale of the move in oil prices. This potentially suggests that markets are not yet fully incorporating a more persistent inflationary shock and may still be assuming that the current rise in energy prices will prove temporary. If that assumption were to change, a more pronounced repricing of interest rate expectations could follow.

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**Sentiment and expectations**
The fifth chart turns to sentiment indicators, focusing in particular on the ZEW economic expectations survey, which often provides an early signal of shifts in the economic outlook. Euro area expectations have shown renewed volatility, with the latest ZEW readings pointing to a deterioration in forward-looking sentiment after a period of gradual improvement. This shift likely reflects rising concerns about the external environment, including higher energy prices and increased geopolitical uncertainty.

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**China and the global backdrop**
The final chart highlights recent developments in China’s investment cycle, where the latest data have surprised modestly to the upside. Fixed asset investment has returned to positive growth in early 2026, driven primarily by a strong pickup in infrastructure spending linked to the early implementation of the new Five-Year Plan. This marks a notable shift from the contraction seen late last year and suggests that policy support could now be gaining traction. Within this, there are tentative signs of stabilisation in the property sector at the margin. While real estate investment remains weak in level terms and house prices continue to decline, the pace of contraction has shown some signs of easing. This is important given the central role that housing has historically played in driving domestic demand.

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The past few weeks have seen a sharp escalation in tensions in the Middle East, triggering a rapid repricing across energy markets and a rise in geopolitical risk (chart 1). This comes at a time when the global economy is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels, leaving it structurally exposed to such shocks (chart 2), while longer-run increases in energy use per capita—driven in large part by industrialisation in China and elsewhere—have contributed to a rise in real energy prices over time (chart 3). Financial markets have been responding, with short-dated bond yields edging higher as expectations of monetary easing are reassessed (chart 4), and forward-looking sentiment indicators are showing early signs of softening (chart 5). At the same time, and of note, there are some tentative signs of stabilisation in parts of the global economy, notably in China where investment has picked up at the margin, supported by policy-led infrastructure spending (chart 6). Even so, it remains early days, and the balance of risks continues to tilt toward a more fragile outlook should the instability in the Middle East persist.

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Charts of the Week: Energy Shock — Early Signals, Uncertain Fallout

Winnie Tapasanun

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New single-family home sales dropped 17.6% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 units in January—below expectations—following a downwardly revised 6.8% decline to 712,000 in December (initially -1.7%, 745,000) and an upwardly revised 17.5% jump to 764,000 in November (previously +15.5%, 758,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected January sales of 725,000. January marked the third m/m decrease in four months, the deepest m/m fall since July 2013, and the lowest level since October 2022, though sales remained 13.1% above the July 2022 low of 519,000. The January m/m sales drop occurred alongside a decline in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.11%, the lowest since September 2022, down from 6.20% in December and 6.96% in January 2025; the rate had subsequently continued trending downward, according to Freddie Mac.

Regionally, January new home sales fell across all four regions. Sales in the Northeast plummeted 44.7% (0.0% y/y) to a six-month-low 26,000 in January, the steepest m/m decrease since February 2023, on top of a 19.0% drop in December. Sales in the Midwest plunged 33.9% (+18.0% y/y) to 72,000, the third m/m decline in four months and the lowest level since March 2025, after a 31.3% December rebound. Sales in the West slumped 21.6% (-28.7% y/y) to a three-month-low 127,000, the first m/m fall since October, following a 1.3% December increase. Sales in the South slid 8.1% (-8.8% y/y) to 362,000, the fourth m/m slide in five months and the lowest level since October 2024, after a 14.9% December drop. The South remained the dominant region, accounting for 61.7% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home fell 4.5% (-6.8% y/y) to $400,500 in January, the first m/m fall in three months and the lowest level since July 2025, after a 3.6% advance to $419,200 in December. The median sales price was 13.0% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home dropped 5.9% (-3.6% y/y) to a six-month-low $499,500 following a 0.8% December decline to $530,900 and two consecutive m/m increases. The average price was 7.7% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 0.4% (-4.0% y/y) to 476,000 in January, the first m/m rise since October, following a 2.1% decline to 474,000 in December (the lowest level since September 2024). The latest figure was 11.7% above a low of 426,000 in July 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.7 months in January, the highest reading since October 2022, after rising to 8.0 months in December. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.6 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 3.2 months in January, the highest since April 2022, after rising to 2.9 months in December. The latest number was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- January sales -17.6% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to 587,000, third m/m fall in four months.
- Sales m/m down in all four regions; sales y/y down in the West (-28.7% y/y) and South (-8.8% y/y).
- Median sales price down to $400,500; avg. price down to $499,500—both at six-month lows.
- Months' supply rises to 9.7 mths., highest since Oct. ’22.

U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in January to Lowest Level Since Oct. ’22

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 8,000 to 205,000 in the week ending March 14, from an unrevised level of 213,000 in the week ending March 7. The four-week average declined 750 to 210,750 in the March 14 week from 211,500 in the prior week, revised from 212,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 215,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million in the week ending March 7, from 1.847 million in the week ending February 28, revised from 1.850 million. The four-week moving average stood at 1.850 million, a decline of 2,000 from the previous week’s average of 1.852 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of March 7. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending February 28, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.38%), New Jersey (2.95%), Massachusetts (2.83%), Washington (2.48%), Minnesota (2.44%), California (2.25%), New York (2.15%), Illinois and Montana (both 2.07%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), Louisiana (0.34%), Arkansas (0.38%), Alabama (0.40%) and North Carolina (0.41%). Rates in other notable states include Connecticut (2.00%), Pennsylvania (1.89%), and Texas (1.08%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

_**Note from the DOL:** This week's release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2021 forward, along with the resulting seasonally adjusted values for initial claims and continuing claims, have been revised._

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 8,000 to 205,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 10,000 to 1.857 million
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.
- The annual revision to the claims seasonal factors reflects minor changes in the claims series over the past year, with one notable upward revision to the November 29 week, when claims were revised from 192,000 to 216,000.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of March 14

Michael J. Moran

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The producer price index for February rose 0.7%, decidedly faster than the expected increase of 0.3%. The latest change followed noticeable increases in the prior three months, leaving a picture of a burgeoning upward trend. The year-over-year increase totaled 3.4%, a reading near the top of the recent range.

 Some of the surge in February was the result of sharp increases in the food and energy components, and their jumps might be attributed to normal random volatility. For example, the surge of 2.4% in food prices could be viewed as an offset to a drop of 1.4% in the prior month; food prices in the past 12 months are down 0.2% despite the February jump. Energy prices also are down on a year-over-year basis (-0.8%) despite a surge of 2.3% in February.
 
However. more than random volatility was in play in February (and other recent months), as core measures also have stirred. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.5% in February, matching the average advance in the prior three months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics avoids the use of the term “core” inflation, but it offers another measure designed to smooth the effects of prices that often move erratically (prices excluding food, energy, and trade services). The preferred measure of the BLS also rose 0.5 percent in February after an average increase of 0.3% in the prior three months. The traditional measure of core inflation rose 3.9% on a year-over-year basis, while the BLS measure advanced 3.5%.

Upward price pressure in recent months has been evident on both the goods and service sides. Prices of goods other than food and energy rose 0.3% in February following an average advance of 0.5% in the prior three months. Service prices rose 0.5% in February, matching the average increase in the November-January period. The year-over-year changes were brisk for both groupings: 4.3% for core goods and 3.8% for services.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The volatile food and energy components jumped...
- ...But other items also showed upward pressure.

February PPI: Troubling Inflation Figures

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Total factory orders increased a less-than-expected 0.1% m/m in January following a 0.4% decline in December and a 2.7% gain in November, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.3% m/m January increase. The year-on-year growth rate eased to a three-month-low 4.4% in January from 4.5% in December (+3.2% in January 2025), remaining far below a peak of 39.6% in April 2021. Notably, orders for defense aircraft & parts plunged 23.8% m/m in January following an 11.8% jump in December and a 3.5% increase in November, while orders for nondefense aircraft & parts rose 3.8% after a 22.7% December drop and a 98.2% November surge. Factory orders excluding defense rebounded 0.4% (3.8% y/y), the second m/m gain in three months, following a 0.9% December decline. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.4% (1.4% y/y), the third successive m/m rise, after a 0.6% December increase.

Durable goods orders were unchanged (+10.3% y/y) in January after a 0.9% decline in December (matching 0.0% m/m in the advance report on March 13). The flat January reading reflected a 0.8% orders decrease (+20.1% y/y) in transportation equipment after a 4.6% December drop, alongside m/m declines of 0.6% (+7.6% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components and 0.4% (+3.7% y/y) in furniture & related products. Other major durable goods orders categories rose m/m in January, led by a 1.3% gain (8.3% y/y) in computers & electronic products, followed by m/m increases of 0.7% (8.7% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (5.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.2% (6.1% y/y) in machinery.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, increased 0.3% (-1.4% y/y) in January following a 0.1% uptick in December and four straight m/m declines. The January m/m rise was led by a 1.3% rebound (-12.8% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by gains of 1.1% (-0.2% y/y) in printing, 1.0% (4.2% y/y) in apparel, 0.6% (2.8% y/y) in textile products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in food products, and 0.1% (0.1% y/y) in paper products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments declined m/m in January: textile mills (-2.1%; -1.3% y/y), leather & allied products (-1.2%; -10.2% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (-0.5%; +3.2% y/y), and plastics & rubber products (-0.3%; +0.4% y/y). Meanwhile, shipments for chemical products were virtually unchanged (+3.5% y/y) in January following three consecutive m/m increases.

Total shipments rose 0.5% (2.4% y/y) in January, the third m/m rise in four months, following a 0.7% rebound in December. Excluding transportation, shipments increased 0.4% (1.1% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.5% December rise. Shipments of durable goods industries grew 0.6% (6.3% y/y), also up for the fourth time in five months, after a 1.2% December gain. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.6% (6.4% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 1.0% (9.4% y/y) in transportation equipment, 0.9% (3.9% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.6% (4.7% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.4% (8.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.3% (4.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, and 0.3% (-3.0% y/y) in wood products. By contrast, durable goods shipments for furniture & related products (-0.7%; +1.4% y/y) and machinery (-0.4%; +6.9% y/y) fell m/m in January, while shipments for miscellaneous durable goods were flat (+2.1% y/y) following six straight m/m gains.

Unfilled orders grew 0.8% (11.1% y/y) in January, the sixth consecutive m/m increase, on top of a 0.9% rise in December. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y), also up for the sixth straight month, after a matching 0.4% December rise. Backlogs of durable goods climbed 0.8% (11.1% y/y) in January, reflecting m/m increases across nearly all categories of durable goods unfilled orders, led by rises of 1.0% (17.4% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.9% (5.1% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, partially offset by a flat reading (+2.1% y/y) in primary metals.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in January, the third successive m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in December. Excluding transportation, inventories were unchanged (+1.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Durable goods inventories grew 0.2% (1.7% y/y) for the fourth straight month, while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.2% (-0.6% y/y), the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 0.3% December decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- January factory orders +0.1% m/m (+4.4% y/y); second m/m gain in three months and 7.7% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods flat; nondurable goods orders +0.3% m/m; shipments +0.5% m/m.
- Transportation orders -0.8% m/m, led by a 23.8% plunge in defense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +0.8%, the sixth straight m/m rise.
- Inventories +0.1%, the third consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Up Marginally in January on Weak Defense Aircraft Orders

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Mortgage applications dropped 10.9% w/w (+37.5% y/y) in the week ending March 13, after rising 3.2% w/w (44.7% y/y) in the week ending March 6, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 0.9% w/w (11.8% y/y) in the latest week, after a rise of 7.8% w/w (10.8% y/y) in the week ending March 6.  Applications for loan refinancing dropped 18.5% w/w (+68.8% y/y) in the week ending March 13, following a small advance of 0.5% w/w (80.7% y/y) in the week ending March 6.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 12bps to 6.48% in the week ending March 13 from 6.36% in the week ending March 6. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 13bps to 5.84% in the latest week from 5.71% in the in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 14bps to 6.49% in the March 13 week from 6.35% in the March 6 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 40bps to 5.90% in the week ending March 13 from 5.50% in the week ending March 6, reaching the highest level since the January 2 week when it stood at 5.98%.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 52.3% of total applications in the week of March 13 from 57.8% in the March 6 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged down to 8.0% in the March 13 week from 8.9% in the March 6 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 3.4% w/w (+0.5% y/y) to $404,000 in the week ending March 13, following a decline of 1.3% w/w (-0.4% y/y) to $418,100 in the week ending March 6. The average size of a purchase loan rose 2.0% w/w (1.0% y/y) to $455,300 in the latest week, after declining 1.0% w/w (-3.1% y/y) to $446,400 in the March 6 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 10.1% w/w (+6.9% y/y) to $357,300 in the week ending March 13, following a drop of 1.9% w/w (+7.2% y/y) to $397,400 in the week ending March 6.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase edged up, while applications for loan refinancing plummeted.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans rose 12bps to 6.48%.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the March 13 Week

Robert Brusca

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The ZEW survey, which is a survey of German financial experts, showed a weakening in March as the **economic situation** deteriorated sharply in the wake of the start of the war in Iran. For the euro area, the reading dropped to -29.9 in March from -13.6 in February; for Germany, the reading surprisingly improved a slight bit to -62.9 from -65.9; for the United States, a positive reading of 4.5 was still posted; however, it was down significantly from +19.6 in February. China’s reading fell to -33.7 from -31.5. The rank standings for these readings on data back to late-1992 for most reporters, but only back to April 2021 for China, shows the euro area at a reading near its median over this span. While Germany and the U.S. are substantially below their medians, with percentile standings near 30% for Germany and near the 40th percentile for the U.S. China logs a stronger queue standing above its median at 68.3%.

**Macro expectations** fell more clearly and sharply for all the reporters in March. For Germany, the drop was to -0.5 in March from +58.3 in February, while the U.S. drop was to -28.7 from -5.1 in February. China’s drop was to -15.8 from +13.1 in February. The standings for these March readings place China at a 1.7 percentile standing, the U.S. at a 16.1 percentile standing, and Germany at a 25.1 percentile standing. All of them are quite weak in the lower quartile of their respective queues of data.

With oil prices jumping sharply, **inflation expectations** have simply skyrocketed on the month. For the euro area, the reading that was near 0 in February jumped to 79 in March. For Germany, a reading of -2.3 in February surged to 79.2 in March. For the U.S., an inflation expectation of 43.1 in February nearly doubled to 80.4 in March. For China, a February reading of 10.5 ran up to 56.0 for March. The queue percentile standings for the March readings rose to the 98th percentile for the euro area, Germany, and the U.S., while China's standing also moved up strongly to its 93rd percentile, when ranked over a shorter period extending back to April 2021.

With inflation going up, **short-term interest rate expectations** rose as well. Those expectations rose in the euro area, the U.S., and China. For each of these reporters, there was a significant increase in the short-term rate expectations. The euro area expectation survey value has a standing in its 70.9 percentile, China’s standing is at its 55th percentile, while the U.S. standing is still below its median at its 22.4 percentile.

**Long-term rate expectations** moved up in all areas as well, with Germany's new reading having a 66.8 percentile standing, China at a 75th percentile standing, and the U.S. at a 59th percentile standing. Each one of these is above its historic median. Long-term expectations are elevated.

**Stock markets** in all areas weakened in March compared to February, with most showing declines of about 50% or so in this survey. The queue standings for the new readings are all in the lower 25th percentile of their respective data queues. Some of them are significantly lower, such as Germany, which stands only in its 9th percentile. On balance, the attack in Iran has been a game-changer for economic perceptions and expectations. Markets are wary. And everyone knows the centerpiece is the Strait of Hormuz. But that does not make it much easier to handicap the future.

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Germany

Germany’s ZEW Survey Sours

Sandy Batten

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Industrial production (IP) rose a slightly larger-than-expected 0.2% m/m in February following an unrevised 0.7% monthly jump in January and small upward revisions to November (0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously) and December (0.3% m/m versus 0.2% m/m previously), according to data released by the Federal Reserve Board. The Action Economics Survey looked for a 0.1% monthly gain. The y/y rate slowed to 1.4% in February from 2.3% in January. The annual rate in February was the slowest since last August. However, IP has trended up over the past several months, growing at a 4.2% annual rate since last October although it is still 1.4% below its November 2018 peak.

Manufacturing output increased 0.2% y/y (1.3% y/y) in February following an upwardly revised 0.8% monthly gain in January (previously +0.6% m/m). Mining production increased by a solid 0.8% m/m (1.4% y/y) in February with the previously reported 0.2% monthly decline in January revised up meaningfully to a 0.9% monthly gain. This was the third monthly increase in mining in the past four months. Utilities output slid 0.6% m/m (+2.5 y/y), the first monthly decline in three months, after a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m increase in January (previously 2.1% m/m). This reflected unchanged electricity production and a 4.7% m/m decline in natural gas distribution.

Within manufacturing, durable goods production edged up 0.1% m/m (2.4% y/y) in February following an upwardly revised 1.1% monthly jump in January (previously 0.8% m/m). Activity in February was volatile across sectors. For example, output of electrical equipment and appliances rose 1.1% m/m and output of motor vehicles and parts jumped 1.7% m/m. By contrast, machinery output fell 1.2% m/m while miscellaneous production declined 1.1% m/m. Output of nondurable manufactured goods increased 0.2% m/m (0.3% y/y) in February after a 0.5% monthly gain in January (revised up slightly from 0.4% m/m). Output of plastics and rubber products rose 0.5% m/m in February on top of a 1.8% monthly jump in January; chemical production increased 0.9% m/m following a solid 1.2% monthly gain in January. By contrast, output of textiles slumped 1.7% m/m, and petroleum production declined 1.6% m/m, its first monthly decline in four months.

By market groups, output of consumer goods was unchanged in February (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.3% monthly increase in January (revised down from 0.7% m/m). Production of business equipment edged up 0.2% m/m (6.4% y/y) in February after a 0.9% m/m increase in January. Output of construction supplies dropped 0.2% m/m (+0.3% y/y) following a 1.1% monthly jump in January. Output of materials increased 0.3% m/m (1.7% y/y) in February on top of an 0.8% monthly gain in January.

In special classifications, output of selected high-tech industries rose 0.7% m/m (8.6% y/y) following an upwardly revised 2.6% monthly jump in January (previously 1.9% m/m). Output of motor vehicles and parts rose a solid 1.7% m/m (-0.7% y/y) in February on top of an upwardly revised 2.4% m/m surge in January (previously 1.3% m/m). The February gain was led by a 2.2% monthly increase in motor vehicle production. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries was up 0.2% m/m (1.0% y/y) in February after a 0.7% monthly rise in January. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles and parts was unchanged in February (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.6% monthly increase in January.

Capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.3% in February, 3.1%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average, from an upwardly revised 76.3% in January (previously 76.2%). The January/February reading was the highest since last July. Manufacturing capacity utilization was also unchanged at 75.6% in February, 2.6%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total industrial output increased 0.2% m/m in February, slightly larger than expected.
- There was no revision to January, but there were small upward revisions to November and December.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.2% m/m, mining rose 0.8%, while utilities production slid 0.6% m/m.
- The headline rate of capacity utilization was unchanged in February and remained well below its long-term average.

U.S. Industrial Production Edged Up in February

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Productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector totaled 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a full percentage point slower than the preliminary estimate. The adjustment reflected a downward revision to output growth (1.5% versus 2.6%) and no change in the preliminary estimate of hours worked, which dipped 0.2%.

The downward revision was disappointing, but the advance of 1.8% remained comfortably within the range of recent observations. In addition, productivity growth shows considerable variation from quarter-to-quarter, and thus heavy weight should not be placed on any single observation. A moving average provides the best perspective on underlying trends, and even a four-quarter average shows considerable volatility; stable patterns start to become visible with eight-quarter averages. The latest read on the long-term average totaled 2.4% in Q4, noticeably better than observations ranging from fractional gains to 2.0% in the decade before the pandemic (note the red line in the chart above).

The latest eight-quarter average lags the solid gains in 2010 (growth of more than 4.0%). However, this performance followed the recession in 2008-09, and productivity typically grows quickly after recessions. (Businesses return to optimal levels of production, and recessions often motivate new production methods and business models that boost efficiency).

The results for unit labor costs were more disappointing than those for productivity, as labor costs were revised 1.6 percentage points higher to 4.4 percent. In addition to the downward revision to productivity growth, the shift in unit labor costs was influenced by an upward revision of 0.6 percentage point to compensation per hour (now showing growth of 6.3%). A moving average also provides the best perspective on unit labor costs, and the latest observation of 2.5% is uncomfortable relative to the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2.0%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Productivity growth was a percentage point slower than previously believed, but still respectable.
- A notable upward revision in unit labor cost is more concerning.

Productivity Growth: Downward Revision in Q4

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**SURVEYS** → Consumer Indicators → Survey of Consumer Pay Choice

The Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice for the US was added to **SURVEYS**. This survey reports the number, $ value, and shares of payments by transaction type and by payment instrument. It also reports consumers’ adoption of bank and nonbank payment accounts, use of payment instruments, rankings of instruments for security and other characteristics, and preference for using payment instruments for specific types of transactions. Annual data are sourced from FRB Atlanta and start in 2015.

Chart: In 2024, there were statistically significant increases in the number of all payments compared to 2023 – they increased by almost three payments, or 5.4%, to 48 on average per consumer per month. Consumers continued their move away from paper payment methods as lower shares were reported using cash and checks. The number of cash payments decreased by 8.2% YoY. Payment cards retained their dominance in the consumer sphere, representing 2/3 of payments by number.

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