Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

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Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Meteoric rise in AI-related semiconductor exports fueling South Korea's export boom

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 4,000 to 203,000 in the week ending August 22, from 207,000 in the week ending August 15, revised marginally from 206,000. The four-week average was 205,500 in the August 22 week, up from 204,250 in the August 15 week. Claims remain largely range-bound at historically low levels between 200,000 and 230,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 208,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”— decreased by 18,000 to 1.778 million in the week ending August 15, from 1.796 million in the week ending August 8, revised from 1.799 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.789 million in the August 15 week up from 1.788 million in the August 8 week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 15. 

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending August 8, the highest unemployment rates were in Oregon (2.01%), Minnesota (2.06%), Massachusetts (2.11%), Rhode Island (2.20%), Puerto Rico (2.57%), and New Jersey (2.60%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Florida (0.36%), Alabama (0.39%), Louisiana and North Carolina (both 0.40%), Arkansas (0.43%), and North Dakota (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.89%), New York and Pennsylvania (both 1.71%), Illinois (1.54%), and Texas (1.05%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 4,000 to 203,000 in the week of August 22.
- Continuing claims declined by 18,000 to 1.778 million in the week ending August 15.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 15.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edge Down in the Week of August 22

Jonathan Basile

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The U.S. Income and Spending report revealed headline inflation trends cooling in the last couple of months relative to higher price pressures in the immediate aftermath of the Iran War. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in July after a 0.1% MoM decline in June. This is a noticeable contrast relative to the prior monthly run rates in March (0.7%), April (0.4%) and May (0.5%) and the MoM average over the previous five years (0.3%). Shorter-run PCE price trends have decelerated sharply: two-month annualized from April’s 6.7% to July’s 0.4% and three-month annualized from May’s 6.4% to July’s 2.2%. However, the smoother six-month annualized rate remained at an elevated 4.1%, and the year-over-year (YoY) rate was steady at 3.7% for a second straight month.

The underlying core PCE price index showed the same pattern as the headline figure in the last two months. July’s 0.2% MoM gain after June’s 0.1% MoM advance was in stark contrast to the 0.3-0.4% run rates exhibited from December 2025 to May 2026 and the 0.3% average over the previous five years. Given the recent core cooling, the two-month annualized rate eased to a 2.4% pace, less than half February’s 5.2% local high and the lowest level since April 2025. While this is the best progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target in over a year, other inflation trends continue to have 3-handles: 3.0% three-month annualized; 3.5% six-month annualized; 3.3% YoY rate. Moreover, the annual core PCE inflation rate has been above the Fed’s 2% target for 65 months in a row.

The consumer spending picture stalled in volume terms at the beginning of the third quarter. Real personal consumption expenditures were unchanged MoM in July. This marked the softest consumer performance since January’s 0.2% MoM decline. To be sure, real consumer spending was revised up slightly in the second quarter from a 3.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized rate to 3.4%. With one month on the books, the third quarter-to-date annualized rate is starting out at 1.7%, half that of the prior three-month period.

Nominal consumer spending rose 0.2% MoM, less than the 0.5% sequential increase in nominal disposable personal income (DPI). In dollar terms, spending underperformed DPI by about $89 billion, the same amount of the increase in personal saving from June to July. These dynamics produced a four-tenth rise in the saving rate to 3.0% from 2.6% in the previous period.

The July saving rate uptick should be viewed as a brief pause in an otherwise downward sloping path. To maintain spending in the last few years, consumers have whittled down the saving rate over time from the January 2024 high of 6.4% to the current level that is less than half that figure. Historically, a falling saving rate usually is a reflection of buoyant consumer confidence and optimistic income expectations. Neither were on display in Tuesday’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence report for August. This suggests that the lower trend in savings likely is not voluntary.

Forward-looking Consumer Expectations fell to 68.2, remaining below the 80 level for a 19th consecutive month. Conference Board considers this threshold a warning flag that points to heightened consumer pessimism and elevated risk of a near-term economic downturn. Conference Board’s Income Expectations, a subcomponent of Consumer Expectations, provides a focused viewpoint on the outlook for consumer spending. August’s 3.1-point fall to a net 3.8 fully arrested the improvement in the 15 months ended June 2026. This suggests a more cautious near-term spending outlook should be warranted.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Headline and Core PCE price measures cooled in the last two months.
- Real spending stalled in July.
- Saving uptick should be viewed as a pause in the downtrend.

U.S. Income and Spending: Inflation Progress Amid Spending Stall

Sandy Batten

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In the second estimate, real GDP grew 1.5% q/q saar in Q2, the same as the advance estimate, following a 2.1% increase in Q1, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for an unrevised 1.5% quarterly gain. Compared with a year ago, GDP was up 2.1%, also unrevised from the advance estimate. The slightly subpar performance in the second quarter continued to be due mostly to significant drags exerted by trade and inventory investment. An upwardly revised 12.5% q/q surge in imports (previously 11.5%) widened the trade deficit further resulting in net exports subtracting 1.1%-points from overall growth (previously -1.0%-point). Inventory investment declined a little more than previously estimated to $53.1 billion (2017$) in Q2 (previously -$50.8 billion) but still subtracted 0.7%-point as in the advance report. This was the fifth consecutive quarter in which inventories declined, a very unusual occurrence when the economy is not in a recession.

The second estimate of GDP contains the first estimate of corporate profits. They continued to soar in Q2, increasing 9.1% q/q not annualized following a 1.7% quarterly gain in Q1. Over the past four quarters, corporate profits have risen 22.8%, the fastest four-quarter growth since Q4 2021. In Q2, domestic profits jumped 9.9%, the fifth consecutive quarterly increase. Foreign profits rebounded 3.5% in Q2 after a 10.4% quarterly decline in Q1. Also, with an estimate of profits, gross domestic income (a second measure of total output in an economy) can be estimated. Real gross domestic income increased 2.2% q/q saar in Q2, up from 1.2% in Q1 and well above the 1.5% increase in GDP.

Personal consumption expenditures and business spending on equipment and intellectual property provided much of the boost to overall GDP growth in Q2 in the second estimate, as they had in the advance report. PCE grew 3.4% q/q saar in Q2 (previously +3.2%), accounting for 2.3%-points of overall GDP growth (previously 2.1%-points). Growth of spending on goods was revised down to 4.3% from 5.2% while spending on services was revised up to 3.1% from 2.2%.

The second consecutive double-digit increase in business spending on equipment was revised down to 13.6% q/q saar from 15.2% in the advance report. However, the previously reported 5.0% quarterly decline in spending on nonresidential structures was revised up to -1.8%. Consequently, growth in nonresidential fixed investment was revised up slightly to 8.5% from 8.4% in the advance report. The 1.5% increase previously reported for residential investment was revised down to a 1.2% gain.

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The 0.8% q/q saar previously reported for total government spending was revised down to -1.0% in the second estimate. Federal nondefense spending fell 3.5% versus -3.4% previously. Growth of spending by state and local governments slowed to 0.9% from 1.1% in the advance report. Accordingly, the drag from government spending increased to 0.2%-point from 0.1%-point in the advance report.

Reflecting the upward revision to personal consumption and the increased drag from the trade deficit, real domestic demand growth, already strong in the advance report, was revised even stronger. Real final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory investment and net exports) increased a well above trend 3.3% q/q saar in Q2 versus 3.1% in the advance report. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (the Fed’s preferred measure of domestic demand) jumped 4.2% q/q in Q2, its largest quarterly gain since Q1 2023, up from 3.9% in the advance report.

GDP inflation measures for Q2 were generally revised slightly faster in the second estimate. GDP price inflation was revised up to 6.4% q/q saar from 6.2% in the advance report, still due mostly to the surge in energy prices that occurred in Q2. The core GDP price index rose 4.4% in the second estimate, the same as in the advance report. PCE price inflation was also revised up to 5.3% from 5.1% in the advance report with core PCE inflation revised up to 3.6% from 3.4% previously.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The 1.5% q/q saar increase in real GDP reported in the advance report was not revised in the second estimate.
- Inventory investment and net exports continued to be meaningful drags on overall growth.
- The strong domestic demand growth reported in the advance report was revised even stronger.
- Corporate profits surged 9.1% q/q not annualized in Q2, the fastest quarterly advance since Q2 2021.

U.S. GDP Growth in Q2 Unrevised in Second Estimate; Corporate Profits Surged

Andrew Cates

**Global Growth Held Up in Q2**
For all the forecasts of a slowdown, the world economy has refused to oblige. Through a year of tariffs, war and the lagged bite of tighter money, global growth held up well in Q2 at close to its long-run pace (chart below). That resilience is noteworthy. Consumer and companies have absorbed shocks that might once have tipped it over and a reminder that the pressures bearing on some financial markets are coming less from a faltering economy than from somewhere else entirely.

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**The Flash PMIs Concur**
The timelier survey evidence only reinforces the point: the expansion is broad, and in most of the major economies gathering pace (chart below). What matters for the argument that follows is where that momentum originates. This is not just a consumer-led, services-driven upswing that had been the norm of recent years. It is being driven, in many parts of the world, by industry — the goods-producing side of the economy that builds, equips and invests. Manufacturing has moved to the front of a global revival, with services accompanying— and, in Europe, lagging — rather than setting the pace. That is arguably the signature of a capital-spending cycle taking hold, and a clear real-economy sign that an investment wave is under way.

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**South Korea Flags the Same Resilience — and the AI Boom**
South Korea is often regarded as the world economy’s early-warning system, wired as it is into the circuitry of global trade. Its exports confirm that demand is holding up. But the arresting part is semiconductors, where growth has gone almost vertical (chart below). This is the artificial-intelligence boom ceasing to be a story about valuations and becoming one about real, tradable demand: the capital being poured into data centres and computing power is now showing up, in hard numbers, in the trade of the economies that make the chips.

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**The Market’s Eye Stays on US Yields — and the Real Rate Leads**
Against so resilient a backdrop, the market’s fixation on US long-term yields can look overwrought. It may not be. What arguably matters is why they are rising: the climb is almost entirely driven by the real rate, not in any great fear (yet) of inflation (chart 4 below). This is not a market fretting too much about inflation; it is a market repricing the cost of capital.

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**Behind It, the World Funds Less of America’s Debt**
That shift is, in part, about who is willing to fund the United States. For two decades the world’s surplus savers — foreign central banks above all — recycled their reserves into Treasuries almost automatically, and asked little in return. That era is now passing (chart below). As the official buyer steps back, the task of financing an ever-larger debt falls to private investors who will hold it only if paid to, and (as now), possibly paid more.

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**And the Surplus Nations Turn to Gold**
If not into American debt, where is the world's surplus going? Increasingly into gold, and our final chart shows the scale of the shift already under way. The motive is straightforward: the freezing of Russia's reserves in 2022 demonstrated that dollar claims carry a political risk that gold does not — a reserve is secure only so long as its holder remains on good terms with the issuing government. The accumulation of gold and the retreat from Treasuries are two aspects of a single reallocation, as reserve managers move their surpluses out of assets they no longer regard as unconditionally safe. For the cost of Western capital, it is a further and durable source of upward pressure.

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A dominant anxiety in financial markets remains the level of long-term interest rates. It is worth beginning, though, with the real economy, where the news of recent days has been more reassuring. Haver’s proprietary calculation of world GDP growth suggests the global economy held up well in the second quarter, expanding at close to its long-run average pace and defying the sharper slowdown many had feared (chart 1). The August flash purchasing managers’ indices tell a similar story, with most of the major economies both in expansion and still improving — though, as ever, the composite readings conceal a more uneven picture beneath (chart 2). From South Korea, whose trade figures are among the world’s most timely, comes the same message, and a pointed one about the artificial-intelligence boom: semiconductor exports have continued to surge (chart 3). Yet the market’s gaze stays fixed on US yields, and a decomposition explains why they are being watched so closely — the rise has come overwhelmingly from the real component, not from any meaningful revival of inflation expectations (chart 4). That, one might argue, is not a passing technical matter but a structural one, rooted in who is willing to fund the US government. The rest of the world now funds a steadily shrinking share of its debt (chart 5), and the surplus nations that once recycled their savings into Treasuries are turning, instead, to gold (chart 6). It is against this backdrop that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent remarks that the government may intervene in the market to support its debt have drawn attention.

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Charts of the Week: Resilient Growth, Restless Yields

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Mortgage applications fell 1.0% w/w (-11.1% y/y) in the week ending August 21 after falling 0.4% w/w (-10.6% y/y) in the week ending August 14, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.3% w/w (-5.7% y/y) in the latest week, following a decline of 2.0% w/w (-3.4% y/y) in the prior week.  Applications for loan refinancing fell 2.0% w/w (-17.1% y/y) in the August 21 week after rising 1.5% w/w (-18.4% y/y) in the August 14 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up 1bp to 6.97% in the week ending August 21 from 6.96% in the week ending August 14, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 3bps to 6.32% in the August 21 week from 6.29% in the August 14 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 3bps to 6.88% in the latest week from 6.85% in the August 14 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose by 4bps to 6.30% in the August 21 week from 6.26% in the August 14 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 42.0% of total applications in the week of August 21 from 41.9% in the week ending August 14. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 7.9% in the latest week from 7.7% in the August 14 week.

The average size of a mortgage edged up 0.5% w/w (-1.8% y/y) to $376,000 in the week ending August 21 after declining 1.4% w/w (-3.5% y/y) to $374,100 in the week ending August 14. The average size of a purchase loan rose 0.8% w/w to $444,100 in the August 21 week after declining 0.2% w/w to $440,500 in the August 14 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage edged down 0.1% w/w to $282,000 in the August 21 week following a decline of 2.4% w/w to $282,200 in the August 14 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged up 1bp to 6.97%.
- Average loan size inched up in the August 21 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the August 21 Week

Winnie Tapasanun

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New single-family home sales fell 10.5% m/m (-6.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 units in July, below expectations, following an upwardly revised 7.6% gain to 678,000 in June (initially +1.6%, 628,000) and an upwardly revised 1.7% decrease to 630,000 in May (previously -4.3%, 618,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected July sales of 620,000. July marked the third m/m decline in four months and the lowest level since January, down 19.8% from a high of 757,000 in November 2025 but up 13.5% from a low of 535,000 in July 2022. The July fall coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.54%, the highest since August 2025, from 6.49% in June, according to Freddie Mac.

Regionally, July new home sales showed a mixed performance. Sales in the Midwest plunged 42.7% (-50.6% y/y) to 43,000 in July, the third m/m drop in four months and the lowest level since September 2012, after an 8.5% decrease to 75,000 in June. Sales in the South fell 13.0% (-5.2% y/y) to 383,000, down for the third time in four months, following a 15.2% June recovery to 440,000. To the upside, sales in the Northeast surged 30.3% (95.5% y/y) to 43,000, the fourth m/m gain in five months and the highest level since December 2025, following a 10.0% June increase to 33,000. Sales in the West rebounded 6.2% (2.2% y/y) to 138,000, the strongest reading since April, reversing a 4.4% June decline to 130,000. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 63.1% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home fell 2.3% (-0.9% y/y) to $393,800 in July, the lowest since July 2021, following a 3.2% decline to $403,100 in June and two consecutive m/m increases. The median sales price was 14.4% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022 but 9.1% above a low of $361,100 in June 2021. The average sales price of a new home, up for the second time in three months, rose 4.1% (5.4% y/y) to $508,800 following a 7.3% June drop to $488,900 (the lowest since July 2025). The average price was 7.0% above a low of $475,600 in August 2024 but 6.0% below a peak of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rebounded 1.9% (-1.6% y/y) to 488,000 in July, the third m/m increase in four months and the highest level since October 2025, after a 1.4% decline to 479,000 in June. The latest figure was 15.1% above a low of 424,000 in May 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.6 months in July, the highest since January, from 8.5 months in June, remaining above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023 but below a high of 10.3 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market fell to 3.2 months in July, the lowest since January and the first m/m decline since August 2025, after registering at 3.5 months for four straight months. The latest reading was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales -10.5% m/m (-6.3% y/y) to 607,000 in July; down 19.8% from a November high.
- Sales m/m down in the Midwest (-42.7%) and South (-13.0%); up in the Northeast (+30.3%) and West (+6.2%).
- Sales y/y plunging in the Midwest (-50.6%); surging in the Northeast (+95.5%).
- Median sales price -2.3% m/m to $393,800, a five-year low; avg. price +4.1% m/m to $508,800.
- Unsold inventory +1.9% m/m (-1.6% y/y) to 488,000, highest since Oct. '25.
- Months' supply up to 9.6 mths., a six-month high.

U.S. New Home Sales Hit a Six-Month Low in July

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at -0.08 in July, down from an upwardly revised +0.06 in June (-0.02 initially) and up from -0.12 in May (-0.19 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating that economic activity was below its historical trend for the second time in three months in July after slightly above the historical trend in June. The latest CFNAI was above a low of -0.50 in October 2025 but below a reading of +0.02 in July 2025 and a high of +0.39 in February 2025.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, declined to -0.04 in July from an upwardly revised +0.01 in June (-0.05 initially), registering the second negative reading in three months. It was above a low of -0.39 in October 2025 and -0.13 in July 2025 but below a high of +0.07 in February 2025. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, the July reading suggested that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The July reading reflected m/m declines in three of the four CFNAI key components and two negative contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI eased to +0.01 in July, still the third positive reading in four months, from +0.04 in June; it was below +0.09 in July 2025 and a high of +0.37 in February 2025 but above a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index edged down to +0.02 in July from +0.04 in June; it was above +0.01 in July 2025 and a low of -0.20 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.16 in March 2025. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.01 in July, the best of three consecutive negative readings, up from -0.05 in June; it was above its recent low of -0.13 in February and -0.12 in July 2025 but below its recent high of +0.05 in January. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index fell to -0.09 in July, the third negative reading in four months and the lowest level since May 2025, from +0.04 in June; it was below +0.03 in July 2025 and a high of +0.10 in March 2025 but above a low of -0.14 in January 2025.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—slipped to +0.05 in July, the fourth positive reading in five months, from an upwardly revised +0.09 in June (-0.03 initially). A string of negative readings was posted during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The July reading was above a low of -0.56 in October 2025 and -0.20 in July 2025 but below a high of +0.15 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI down to -0.08 in July, negative for the second time in three months.
- Three of four CFNAI components down m/m; two make negative contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 down to -0.04, second negative reading in three mths.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index down to +0.05, remaining positive for the fourth time in five mths.


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative in July After June’s Upwardly Revised Positive Reading

Robert Brusca

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Sweden ended its rate cutting back in the third quarter of 2025. Since then, housing prices have drifted higher. However, housing activity, starts, have had a minor bounce from their lows but no real recovery. Starts are still well below their 2015-2022 levels. But the pace of decline has slowed and given way to oscillation and stability.

Sweden’s inflation rate has fallen back down to its pre-Covid pace. Inflation is no longer a problem there as the headline and core rates for two consecutive quarters are below the 2% mark and look comfortable there. House prices have stabilized. There has not been a year-on-year drop in house prices since 2024-Q1.

Housing completions in this environment have a one-quarter bounce. It’s too early to call this a bottom in completions, but we do have what looks like a spike low in completions. With housing prices creeping back up, having risen for three quarters in a row, the market is beginning to look firmer.

The economy is back in gear, with industrial production rising as of the end of 2024 and logging growth rates of over 4% year-over-year, even after slowing from its rapid recovery from mid-2024 to 2025-Q3.

Sweden shows the signs of having a soft landing in the wake of all the Covid excesses, even with the post-Covid War in Ukraine and the more recent bottlenecks for energy and other supplies in the Strait of Hormuz. Only time will tell if the authorities can continue this run of good policy results.

Monetary policy seems well positioned, with the policy interest rate less than a percentage point above the inflation rate but more than one and one-half percentage points above the core rate of inflation. Interest rates in Sweden were last dropped in late 2025.

Sweden is less affected by the complications in the Middle East and principally uses fossil fuels in its economy to fuel transportation. Apart from that, it has a rich resource of hydro, nuclear, and green energy. This helps give it a buffer against the rollicking prices in the global energy sector and to buffer it from some of that uncertainty.

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Sweden

Sweden’s Housing Market Shows Signs of Life

Michael J. Moran

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The manufacturing index published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell 1.0 index point in August, but the reading of 54.6 still suggested a solid performance in the manufacturing sector. (The index can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the critical point separating expansion from contraction.) August marked the eighth consecutive month with a reading above 50, and the past two observations were the best of the year thus far (chart, above left). 

The performance of the index this year represents a marked improvement from that in the prior three years. Indeed, the headline index was at 50 or above in only two months during the 2023-25 time span (and barely so at that: 50.5 and 50.0 in January and February 2025).

The new orders component accounted for most of the softening in the headline measure in August, falling 3.0 points to 53.7 (chart, above right). Still, the new orders index remained within the range of  observations so far this year, and the average reading of 55.46 in the past eight months easily exceeds the average of 47.69 in the prior three years. The slowdown in new orders led to a similar-sized drop in the backlog of bookings, as this index fell 3.2 points to 51.8 (this item is not seasonally adjusted). Like new orders, the backlog index remained within the range of observations this year and represented a far better performance than that in the prior three years.

The slowdown in orders had little effect on the pace of production, as this component fell only marginally (down 0.2 point to 58.3) and remained comfortably above results in the first six months of the year (which averaged of 54.07). The employment component registered a slightly larger response, dropping 1.6 points to 51.2. Despite the easing in the employment index, the reading above 50 was encouraging, as this measure was below the expansion/contraction threshold in the first six months of the year. In fact, July and August marked the first above-50 readings since September 2023.

The prices index, which is not a component of the headline measure and is not seasonally adjusted, was unchanged at 71.7. A reading far above the critical point of 50 might seem striking, but this measure often runs high; readings above 80 are not uncommon. In fact, the recent high was 84.6 in April and the index touched 92.1 during the inflationary burst in 2021-22. Much of the pressure, no doubt, reflects the jump in energy prices this year and supply chain disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Problems with supply chains were evident in the supplier delivery index, which rose 0.4 point to 59.3 (higher values in this measure signal slower delivery times). The latest observation remained below the recent highs of 60.6 in April and May, but those observations were above readings in other recent years, signaling difficulty in securing supplies (charts, below).

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- New orders accounted for most of the easing in the headline index.
- The production index showed a small decline; the employment index posted a moderate drop.
- The prices index was unchanged at an elevated level, but still below recent peaks.

ISM Manufacturing: A Dip in August, but still Signaling Expansion

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