Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Despite resilient economy, US consumers are not very happy

Sandy Batten

261029N1.jpg

261029O1.jpg

Real GDP grew 3.4% q/q saar in Q3 following a 2.2% increase in Q2 and a 2.5% gain in Q1, according to the Advance release from the BEA. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 3.1% quarterly gain. Over the first three quarters of this year, GDP has grown at a 2.7% annual rate, well above its longer-term trend. Compared with a year ago, GDP was up 2.1% in Q3, Domestic demand was very strong in Q3. Final sales to domestic purchasers jumped 5.0% q/q (2.9% y/y), its fastest quarterly pace since the economy reopened from the Covid shutdown, up from 3.8% in Q2 and 2.3% in Q1. Final sales to private domestic purchasers (the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of aggregate demand) rose 4.9% at an annual rate in Q3 (3.3% y/y) versus 4.6% in Q2 and 1.8% in Q1. For the first three quarters of 2026, final sales to domestic purchasers rose 3.7% at an annual rate while final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 3.8%.

Personal consumption expenditures and business spending on equipment and intellectual property continued to provide much of the boost to overall GDP growth in Q3. PCE grew 3.8% q/q saar in Q3, accounting for 2.5%-points of overall GDP growth, the same increase and contribution as in Q2. The composition of the Q3 increase was somewhat different from that in Q2. Spending on goods slowed to 3.0% from 4.5% in Q2, reflecting slower spending growth for both motor vehicles and furnishings, and a decline in spending on recreational goods and vehicles. By contrast, spending on services picked up to 4.1% in Q3, its fastest quarterly pace Q2 2022, from 3.4% in Q2. One note of caution: the continued strength in consumer spending has come at the expense of saving with the saving rate declining to 4.1% in Q3, its lowest reading since Q4 2022 and calling into question the sustainability of the recent strength in spending.

Business spending on equipment remained very strong in Q3, posting its third consecutive double-digit quarterly gain. Equipment spending jumped 20.9% q/q saar in Q3 on top of a 13.4% quarterly gain in Q2 and a 15.5% quarterly increase in Q1. The Q3 increase was the largest since Q3 2020 and was led by a 37.3% annual rate surge in spending on information processing equipment. Business spending on intellectual property increased a solid 8.4% in Q3 though a slowdown from the 9.2% in Q2 and 15.6% in Q1, due mostly to a slowdown in spending on software from very lofty levels. Together, these two added 1.6%-points to total GDP growth. Business construction spending also made a meaningful contribution to overall growth in Q3 for the first time in six quarters. It rose 5.4% and added 0.2%-point to GDP growth. Quarterly gains, apart from a decline in manufacturing, were widespread across sectors with a particularly large increase in construction of data centers (128% annual rate gain). After a surprising 2.8% q/q increase in Q2, residential construction fell 3.4% in Q3, its sixth quarterly decline in the past seven quarters.

261029P1.jpg

261029Q1.jpg

Inventories returned to a growth supporter in Q3 after having declined in each of the preceding five quarters. Inventories increased $20.3 billion (2017$) in Q3 and added 1.6% points to overall GDP growth. Government spending also contributed to growth in Q3 after having been essentially unchanged in Q2. Total government spending increased 5.3% q/q saar in Q3, adding 0.9%-point to GDP growth, versus a 0.1% quarterly decline in Q2. Federal government spending rebounded, jumping 15.8% q/q after a 2.4% quarterly decline in Q2, reflecting sizeable increases in both defense (11.7%) and nondefense (22.2%) spending. By contrast, spending by state and local governments was essentially unchanged in Q3 following a 1.2% gain in Q2.

As was widely anticipated from the quarterly trade reports, the trade balance widened markedly in Q3 with net exports subtracting 3.3%-points from overall GDP growth, the third largest quarterly subtraction in the history of the series dating back to 1947, on top of a 1.1%-point subtraction in Q2. Imports jumped 19.7% q/q saar, largely reflecting a 58.7% annual rate increase in imports of capital goods. It seems that the rising pace of AI build outs is being supplied predominantly by foreign production—notably semiconductors. Imports of consumer goods edged up only 1.0%. By contrast, exports declined 5.7%, the first quarterly decline in three quarters, with weakness relatively widespread across major sectors.

With energy prices receding in Q3 following their Q2 surge, quarterly GDP inflation slowed accordingly. The rise in the GDP price index slowed to 2.3% q/q saar in Q3 from 6.1% in Q2. Energy prices fell 7.4% q/q at an annual rate in Q3. PCE inflation (the measure targeted by the Fed) slowed to 2.1% from 5.0% while core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy prices) slowed to 2.5% from 3.3%.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

261029R1.jpg

261029S1.jpg

- The quarterly gain was led by personal consumption, business spending on equipment, and inventory rebuilding.
- Net exports subtracted 3.3%-points from overall growth, the third largest quarterly drag in the history of the series.
- Domestic demand growth accelerated to well above trend.
- Reflecting the retreat in energy prices in Q3, GDP inflation decelerated markedly.

U.S. GDP Jumped 3.4% in Q3 with Strong Domestic Demand

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

261029A4.jpg

261029B4.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 1,000 to 194,000 in the week ending October 24 from 195,000 in the week ending October 17, revised from 194,000. The four-week average was 196,750 in the October 24 week, down from 198,000 in the October 17 week, revised from 197,750. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 198,000 claims to have been filed. These weekly data underscore the downward trend in claims in place since the second half of last year.

This downward trend is echoed in the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—. They fell 21,000 to 1.701 million in the week ending October 17, down from 1.722 million in the week ending October 10, revised from 1.728 million. This is the lowest level since the September 19 week. The four-week moving average was 1.710 million in the October 17 week, essentially unchanged from the October 10 week, revised from 1.711 million. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.1% in the October 17 week, where it has held since the week of August 29.

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending October 10, no state had an insured unemployment rate above 2.00%; the highest was in New Jersey (1.96%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.21%), Louisiana (0.28%), Florida (0.30%), Alabama and North Dakota (both 0.33%), North Carolina (0.35%), Arkansas (0.36%), Nebraska (0.39%), Iowa (0.40%), Kentucky (0.42%), Kansas (0.43%), Georgia, Idaho, New Hampshire, Tennessee and Wyoming (all 0.47%), Virginia (0.48%), and Mississippi and Wisconsin (both 0.49%). Rates in other notable states include Texas (0.93%), Pennsylvania (1.19%), Illinois (1.29%), New York (1.36%) and California (1.67%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

261029C4.jpg

261029D4.jpg

- New claims declined by 1,000 to 194,000 in the week of October 24.
- Continuing claims fell by 21,000 to 1.701 million in the week ending October 17.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.1% in the week of October 17.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Dropped in the Week of October 24

Robert Brusca

261029E.jpg

The EU index for the European Monetary Union (EMU) fell to 96.9 in October from 97.5 in September. The index was last lower in June of this year, so this is a multi-month low. 

The main sector indexes showed a monthly improvement in only one, the industrial sector, with a rise of one point. Weakening on the month were the construction sector, retail sector, consumer confidence, and the services sector. Each of them slipped by about one point. 

Across reporters, eleven of the 16 countries that are early reporting show month-to-month declines. There were monthly increases in France and Italy as well as among the smaller economies Austria, Belgium, and Slovakia. Nine countries had shown monthly declines in September and only seven had logged weakening in August; still, that’s seven out of sixteen.

**EMU-wide sectors**
By sector, only two of the five sectors have rankings in their queue standings of historic data above their respective medians. Those two are the industrial sector (58.0%) and construction (57.7%). Below-median rankings were turned in by retailing (43.9%), services (38.5%), and consumer confidence (13.0%). Consumer confidence globally appears much weaker than the sector you might expect to see it affect, like retailing, wholesaling, or services. Consumers keep worrying but keep spending. Still, the overall ranking for the EMU index is at its 37th percentile. That overall ranking is lower than the unweighted simple average of the five-sector ranking (at 42.2%).

Across countries, the rankings show only five of 16 reporting countries with rankings above the 50% mark, a ranking that would place them above their respective historic medians.

261029.jpg

The more conventional accounting data that lag (such as retail sales and industrial production as distinct from their diffusion survey counterparts) have continued to show a relatively firm picture, but one that only solidifies weak growth. Unemployment rates are historically low across the euro area. But the ECB is wary to hike rates anyway. No one is sure what lies ahead. There are rumblings of more hostilities in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections pass. If so, will the U.S. be more aggressive? More intrusive? Will it act to seize or stabilize the Strait of Hormuz as needed? Or will the attack only make things worse, and energy prices higher? No one knows, so the ECB is playing cautious and not betting on an uncertain future but is prepared to respond to its needs. The current reticence among central banks to hike rates is not now a positive reading on inflation or its prospects. It is, in fact, a negative vote indicating a rise in uncertainty and, unfortunately, a parallel rise in the hopes of central bankers that something will bail them out so they do not have to make tough decisions. I am very wary and somewhat concerned about the last part. We do not want central banks that are afraid to take the steps required to control inflation.

Europe

EU Indexes Show EMU Weaker in October

Winnie Tapasanun

261028H.jpg

261028I.jpg

The U.S. international trade deficit in goods unexpectedly widened to $134.90 billion in September, the largest since March 2025, from $132.07 billion in August and $118.86 billion in July, the advance estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, suggesting a significant drag on GDP growth in Q3 2026. The September reading marked the fourth widening in the goods trade deficit in five months, exceeding an $82.73 billion shortfall in September 2025. A deficit of $129.0 billion for September had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a low of $61.44 billion in October 2025 (the smallest since February 2020) and a record high of $158.73 billion in March 2025.

Total goods exports climbed 2.6% m/m (12.7% y/y) to a five-month high of $209.24 billion in September after a 2.1% increase to $203.98 billion in August and three consecutive m/m declines. A record high of $220.11 billion was reached in April. Exports were up 28.7% from a June 2023 low. The m/m gain in exports in September was led by a 12.8% rebound (15.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, followed by increases of 6.5% (-10.9% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 5.4% (24.1% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 3.0% (12.4% y/y) in other goods. To the downside, exports of automotive vehicles & parts (-5.6%; -7.0% y/y) and industrial supplies & materials (-1.6%; +14.5% y/y) decreased m/m in September.

Total goods imports rose 2.4% m/m (28.2% y/y) to $344.15 billion in September on top of a 5.4% advance to $336.05 billion in August, marking the seventh monthly increase in eight months and the highest level on record. Imports were up 37.2% from a March 2023 low. The m/m increase in imports in September was led by a 7.5% gain (77.2% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, followed by rises of 6.7% (29.2% y/y) in other goods and 3.1% (-12.0% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. In contrast, imports of industrial supplies & materials (-6.0%; +19.2% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (-4.0%; +2.4% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (-2.5%; +8.1% y/y) fell m/m in September.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $134.9 bil. in September, up $2.8 bil. (+2.1%) from August’s $132.1 bil., suggesting a significant drag on Q3’26 GDP growth.
- Exports +2.6%, second straight m/m increase to a five-month high, driven by a 12.8% rebound in foods, feeds & beverages exports; auto exports down 5.6%.
- Imports +2.4%, seventh rise in eight mths. to a record high, led by a 7.5% gain in capital goods imports; industrial supplies & materials imports down 6.0%.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens Further in September

261028E.jpg

Consumer climate in the GfK readings from Germany in November edged slightly lower to -30.8 in November from -30.6 in October; the October level had dropped relatively sharply from -26.8 in September. The queue percentile standing also known as the count standing, was at a 2.7 percentile reading in November, which tells us it's been this weak or weaker only 2.7% of the time (based on data back to May 2002), an extremely weak reading.

The components of the GfK headline lag by one month; they showed an improvement in the economic expectations index to 2.1 in October from -3.4 in September, a deterioration in income expectations to -15.7 from -15.0, and for the propensity to buy there was a slippage to -11.9 in October from -10.8 in September.

The components show count rankings in their 43.9 percentile for economic expectations, in their 9.5 percentile for income expectations, an extremely low reading, and, for the propensity to buy, the standing is in its 26.5 percentile.

Readings for Italy, France, and the United Kingdom are in the far-right-hand portion of the table. France and the U.K. have October readings and are up to date on the same timeline as the components of the GfK index. The reading for Italy is a month older, in September. All of the readings, regardless of how topical they are, for Italy, France, and the U.K., dropped compared to their respective previous monthly values. In the case of Italy, the reading dropped to 91.2 in September from 94.5 in August. In the case of France, the reading for October dropped to 80.3 from 85.1 in September, and the U.K. situation showed the October reading dropped to -24.0 from -13.0.

The count percentile standings for these three countries are around the 51st percentile for Italy, the 25th percentile for the U.K., and the 0.3 percentile (yes, less than one percentile) for France, where the index is hundredths of a point away from being the lowest ever. The level of the reading is a function of how the index itself is formed, but the count percentile standings rank the current reading against the history of the index, giving us a better feel for where the current standing is compared to where it's been in the past. Clearly, France logs the weakest reading, which is not surprising given what's going on in Europe and particularly in France at the moment. Italy has also had some demonstrations, but the month-to-month drop in Italy is not as severe; Italy’s percentile standing is still above its median; however, the reading is for September so we're going to have to hold judgment until we start getting readings in October and later for Italy.

261028.jpg

**The bottom line**
The clear takeaway from these surveys is that conditions in Germany remain weak and they're not showing much tendency for improvement. The low standing for income expectations is particularly disturbing. Economic expectations are not that far from the historic median (the median occurs at a ranking at its 50th percentile); however, economic expectations are still some 6 percentile points below that. The ‘propensity to buy’ is looking at essentially a lower-quartile ranking, which dovetails nicely with the weak income expectations since weak income expectations should lead to a weak propensity to buy as soon as income expectations deteriorate. The big deterioration in income expectations occurred in September and the propensity to buy has been slow to deteriorate in comparison to that (the two series have a 0.8 correlation coefficient).

The other countries in the sample clearly show developing issues. France’s political circumstances and uncertainty are well reflected in the INSEE confidence index. The U.K., facing many of the same constraints as France, sees what might be a sympathetic decline in consumer confidence. While Italy shows some small deterioration in September, we have yet to get a fresh reading from the period when the demonstrations were breaking out in France and, to a lesser extent, in Italy. This survey and the accompanying data for France, Italy, and the U.K. are not a set of readings to reassure anyone. The problems that have broken out in France exist in the G5 countries even though there hasn't been any clear transmission to Japan or to the United States. Although in the U.S. bond yields have been rising relatively sharply and concerns about the U.S. fiscal position are swirling about, they haven't become pronounced market or political factors yet, even with the midterm elections on the doorstep in the U.S.

GfK Confidence Eases Slightly in Germany; Major Setback for Confidence in France

261027F25.jpg

261027G25.jpg

New single-family home sales slipped 0.6% m/m (-5.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units in September, above expectations, following a downwardly revised 5.1% gain to 680,000 in August (initially +6.4%, 684,000) and a revised 4.9% drop to 647,000 in July (previously -4.3%, 643,000), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, indicating that demand for new homes remained relatively resilient amid high mortgage rates, with sales outperforming market forecasts despite remaining below year-earlier levels. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected September sales of 652,000. September marked the second m/m decrease in three months, leaving sales 10.7% below a high of 757,000 in November 2025 but 26.4% above a low of 535,000 in July 2022. The September decline coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.86%, the highest since January 2025, from 6.67% in August, according to Freddie Mac.

Regionally, September new home sales were mixed. Sales in the Midwest fell 7.3% (-8.2% y/y) to 89,000 in September, the third m/m fall in four months, after an 81.1% surge to 96,000 in August. Sales in the South slid 6.6% (-0.7% y/y) to 413,000, the lowest level since May, following a 5.5% August rebound to 442,000. In contrast, sales in the Northeast soared 28.0% (10.3% y/y) to 32,000, the third m/m gain in four months, after a 30.6% August plunge to 25,000. Sales in the West jumped 21.4% (-17.4% y/y) to 142,000, the strongest level since April, reversing a 15.8% August drop to 117,000. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 61.1% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home climbed 3.9% (-3.9% y/y) to $400,400 in September, the first m/m increase since April, after a 2.2% slide to $385,400 in August. The median sales price was 13.0% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022 but 10.9% above a low of $361,100 in June 2021. The average sales price edged up 0.4% (-6.7% y/y) to $472,800 following a 10.2% August decrease to $470,800. The average price was 12.6% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022 but 2.1% above a low of $462,900 in September 2021. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 1.0% (-2.3% y/y) to 476,000 in September, the third m/m slide in four months and the lowest level since September 2024, after a 0.2% decline to 481,000 in August. The latest figure was 12.3% above a low of 424,000 in May 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale ticked down to 8.4 months in September, the lowest level since December 2025, from 8.5 months in August and 8.9 months in July, still above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023 but below a high of 10.3 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market dipped to 3.0 months in September, matching the lowest level since January, from 3.1 months in August and July. The latest reading was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

261027H25.jpg

261027I25.jpg

- Sales -0.6% m/m (-5.3% y/y) to 676,000 in Sept.; still 26.4% above a July ’22 low.
- Sales m/m down in the Midwest (-7.3%) and South (-6.6%); up in the Northeast (+28.0%) and West (+21.4%).
- Sales y/y down in all regions except the Northeast (+10.3%).
- Median sales price +3.9% m/m to $400,400, first rise in five mths.; avg. price +0.4% m/m to $472,800.
- Unsold inventory -1.0% m/m (-2.3% y/y) to 476,000, lowest since Sept. ’24; months' supply down to 8.4 mths., a Dec. ’25 low.

U.S. New Home Sales Ease in September Following August Rebound

261027V50.jpg

261027W50.jpg

New orders for durable goods rose more than expected in September, helped significantly by a surge in aircraft orders. Total orders increased 1.8% m/m (+9.9% y/y) in September following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m gain in August (previously -0.1% m/m). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.4% monthly increase. Aircraft orders jumped 23.2% m/m, led by a 28.4% m/m rise in nondefense aircraft orders. This accounted for much of the September advance in total orders. Excluding aircraft, other orders increased by a more modest 0.1% m/m in September, the same monthly gain as in August. Overall, transportation orders increased 4.6% m/m (7.9% y/y) in September with orders ex transportation rising 0.5% m/m (11.1% y/y). For all of the third quarter, total orders increased 0.6% q/q while ex transportation orders rose 2.4% q/q.

Across major sectors, orders for computers and related products led the way, rising 3.9% m/m (+26.7% y/y) in September on top of a 2.3% monthly gain in August. Primary metals orders increased 0.5% m/m (+20.4% y/y); orders for fabricated metals rose 0.4% m/m (8.3% y/y); machinery orders were up 1.2% m/m (+16.1% y/y). By contrast, orders for communications equipment fell 1.3% m/m (+26.8% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline, and orders for electrical equipment and appliances slipped 0.3% m/m (+4.8% y/y), the second monthly decline in the past three months.

Strong business spending on equipment has been a key factor supporting the economy over the past several quarters. Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) are a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts. They rose 1.2% m/m (+11.5% y/y) in September to post another solid quarter. For all of Q3, core capital goods shipments were up 3.9% q/q after a 2.8% quarterly gain in Q2. Real business spending on equipment jumped 13.4% q/q saar in Q2. The Q3 gain in core capital goods shipments points to another strong quarterly increase in Q3 (scheduled for release with GDP on Thursday, October 29). Core capital goods orders increased 0.5% m/m (+13.5% y/y) in September on top of a 1.6% monthly jump in August. For all of Q3 they were up 3.6% q/q versus 4.3% q/q in Q2.

Total manufacturing shipments rose a solid 1.3% m/m (+10.1% y/y) in September following a 0.1% monthly rise in August. For all of Q3, shipments increased 1.9% q/q versus 4.0% q/q in Q2. Shipments of durable goods rose 0.9% m/m (+9.4% y/y) in September while shipments of nondurable goods jumped 1.7% m/m (+10.9% y/y). Durable goods shipments excluding transportation increased 0.7% m/m (+9.3% y/y), led by a 3.4% monthly rise in computer shipments and a 1.7% monthly gain in machinery shipments. By contrast, shipments of communications equipment fell 0.6% m/m in September, the first monthly decline in 11 months.

Unfilled durable goods orders rose 0.8% m/m (+9.0% y/y) in September, the largest monthly gain since April. Total factor inventories increased 0.3% m/m (+3.0% y/y) following a 0.5% monthly gain in August. Durable goods inventories rose 0.3% m/m (+3.4% y/y), and nondurable goods inventories increased 0.4% m/m (+2.4% y/y).

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

261027X50.jpg

261027Y50.jpg

- New orders for durable goods jumped a larger-than-expected 1.8% m/m in September, led by a surge in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Orders excluding aircraft rose a more modest 0.1% m/m.
- Core capital goods shipments rose 3.9% q/q in Q3, pointing to another strong increase in business spending on equipment.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Jump in September on Surge in Aircraft Orders

261027E.jpg

**EMU Money Growth**
Money supply in the European Monetary Union had slowed in September as the near-term growth rates peaked at a 12-month pace of 4.4% annualized. Over six months, growth is 2.7%, annualized; over three months, M2 money supply growth is at an annualized rate of 1.8%. The EMU shows a clear slowing in nominal money growth. This has led to a decline and a contraction in real money balances in the monetary union. Real money supply growth over three years, two years, and one year is locked into a very narrow range of 0.5% to 0.6% at an annual rate. However, over six months, the annualized rate of growth is -1.9%; over three months, the annual rate of growth is -4.4%. Nominal money supply growth and the pace of real money balances are clearly pulling back in the monetary union.

**Credit Growth in EMU**
Nominal credit growth is also slowing in the Monetary Union as nominal credit growth peaked over 12 months at 4.5% and has decelerated to a three-month growth rate annualized at 3.1%. Private sector credit peaked over 12 months at 4.5%, decelerated to a 3.8% annualized rate over six months, and then decelerated again to a 3.2% annualized rate over three months. In real terms, private credit is also slowing and contracting, with both total and private credit growth rates in the neighborhood of -3% growth, expressed at an annual rate over three months.

**The U.S. - An Uneven Picture**
The U.S. shows only a hint of monetary slowing as nominal money growth is 4.1% over the last three years, climbing to 5.7% over 12 months and rising further to a 7.2% pace over six months. It does slow over three months but only to a pace of 6.0%, leaving it below its six-month pace and yet above all the other growth rate calculations, making the assessment of a ‘slowdown’ premature.

The U.S. monetary real balance growth rate shows a hint of slowing, but the signal is not clear. Real M2 growth is 1.1% over three years; it rises to 1.9% over 12 months, rises to 3.4% over six months, and then drifts lower to 1.3% over three months. This pace shows period-to-period deceleration but is still above its three-year pace, and the three-month decline may be too steep to take at face value.

**U.K. Money Growth - Lagged Readings**
The U.K. is a month behind the other countries in reporting money growth for September. U.K. nominal M4 growth is in a nominal slowing mode, with the annualized growth pace down to 3.3% over three months. U.K. real money balances show monetary contraction over six months and three months, with the three-month pace at a chilling -1.8%, still not quite as steep as the money or credit slowing in the EMU.

**Japanese Money Trends**
The last country on the table is Japan, where M2 plus CD nominal growth rates appear fairly flat. The three-year growth rate in Japan has averaged 1.6% at an annual rate; the 12-month pace stepped up to a 1.9% growth rate, which has since ticked down to a 1.8% annualized rate over both three and six months. Money growth in Japan is relatively flat in nominal terms while persistently shrinking in real terms. The growth hit to real balances in Japan shows them contracting over all periods in the table. Over 12 months, real balance growth is -0.3%; then the annual rate of decline becomes more intense over three months and six months at -1.3% for both of those tenors. The real balance slowdown is clear; however, for nominal money, the growth profile is simply flat.

**Implications**
Having more resilient money growth in the U.S. could be a problem for the rest of the world if the U.S. takes this as a sign that it has more of an entrenched or even growing inflation problem because it will be then raising rates while other countries are experiencing weakening money growth and are going to be less able to absorb the increases in interest rates that rate hikes in the U.S. could start to impose on the global economy. All of the central banks in this table are engaged in some process of an interest-rate tightening. The Bank of Japan has been engaged in a very slow and steady process of ‘normalization.’ The ECB process has been a little bit more aggressive and preemptive, while in the U.K. the inflation numbers are starting to look a little bit worse and could motivate the Bank of England to go back on the rate hiking path after it had sought some moderation.

261027.jpg

**Summing Up**
The situation with money supply growth globally is uncomfortable, and it's equally as uncomfortable as the fiscal situations that all the countries in this table find themselves in. Of course, France right now is experiencing the worst blowback. It is really between a rock and a hard place, with an inability to raise taxes and demands for further spending. But the U.K. and the U.S. are also in relatively unenviable positions. In Japan, Prime Minister Sano Kaichi has been able to engineer some measured investment-led government spending despite the large deficits there and the heavy debt-to-GDP burden.

**The Outlook**
The outlook for growth, inflation, and interest rates across these countries remains uncertain, with the price of oil high and lingering at high levels and the war in the Middle East still unresolved. It's hard to make any kind of statement about the future in which we can have confidence. Policymakers in all these countries are going to be watching global events while dealing with market pressures, political realities, economic trends, and pursuing the clear need to get inflation back down inside their monetary targets without doing economic damage. It's a tall order for the period ahead.

Money Supplies Slow Except in the U.S.

large_261102A61.jpg

medium_261102A61.jpg

small_261102A61.jpg

thumbnail_261102A61.jpg

261102A61.jpg

large_261102B61.jpg

medium_261102B61.jpg

small_261102B61.jpg

thumbnail_261102B61.jpg

261102B61.jpg

The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a higher-than-expected 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September and 54.6 in August, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management. The October reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the 10th consecutive month and at the fastest pace since July. A reading of 54.7 for October had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest manufacturing PMI was above a contractionary 48.8 in October 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, while remaining below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index advanced to 59.0 in October from 56.7 in September, indicating production expanded for the 12th straight month and at the highest level since November 2021. The index was above a low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In October, 27.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 11.5% reported lower production. The new orders index edged up to 55.5 in October from 55.3 in September, signaling new orders grew for the 10th successive month and at the fastest rate since July. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023 but below a high of 67.0 in May 2021. In October, 24.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 16.9% reported declines. The inventories index rebounded to 51.4 in October from 48.6 in September, showing the fourth expansion in five months and matching the highest level since June. The index was below a high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index ticked up to 59.1 in October from 59.0 in September, indicating slowing delivery performance for the 11th straight month after faster deliveries in November 2025. In October, 21.2% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.1% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index slipped to 52.4 in October from 52.7 in September, showing employment expanded for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower pace, following 33 months of contraction. The index was above a low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In October, 14.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 10.8% reported lower hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index declined to a still-elevated 75.2 (NSA) in October from 77.9 in September, indicating raw materials prices rose for 25 months running but at a slower rising pace. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. In October, 53.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while only 2.8% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index rebounded to 51.2 in October from 50.9 in September, indicating new export orders grew for the fourth successive month and the fifth in six months. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from a peak of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index rose to 52.9 in October from 51.0 in September, suggesting imports expanded for the ninth consecutive month and at the strongest rate since July. The index was above a low of 39.9 in May 2025 but below a peak of 61.0 in June 2021. The order backlog index slid to 54.6 (NSA) in October from 56.4 in September, showing backlog levels grew for the 10th straight month but at a slower pace. The index was well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but below a peak of 70.6 in May 2021.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

large_261102C61.jpg

medium_261102C61.jpg

small_261102C61.jpg

thumbnail_261102C61.jpg

261102C61.jpg

large_261102D61.jpg

medium_261102D61.jpg

small_261102D61.jpg

thumbnail_261102D61.jpg

261102D61.jpg

- ISM Mfg. PMI up to 55.5 in Oct.; 10th straight month of expansion.
- Production (59.0) highest since Nov. ’21; expanding for the 12th consecutive mth.
- New orders (55.5) highest since July; 10th successive mth. above 50.
- Employment (52.4) expanding for the fourth straight mth., albeit at a slower rate.
- Prices Index (75.2) down modestly, still indicating prices rising for 25 mths. running.
- Exports (51.2) up and imports (52.9) at a three-month high; both expanding.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at a Three-Month High in October; Production & New Orders Accelerating; Employment Moderating

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

Tokyo

London

Singapore

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

261027DA1.jpg

<br></br>

**CANADA** → Financial → OSFI Leverage Requirements Return

The Leverage Requirements Return (LRR) statistics were added to **CANADA**. The LRR is a regulatory filing that Canadian deposit-taking institutions submit reporting leverage ratios along with the details of how it was calculated. Exposures and Tier 1 capital measures for all banks, domestic banks and foreign bank subsidiaries are available. Quarterly data are sourced from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and start in Q1 2018.

Chart: Canadian banks’ balance sheets have grown by 80% since 2018, with exposures rising from 5.8 trillion CAD to 10.4 trillion CAD. Tier 1 capital has kept pace, leaving the system-wide leverage ratio at 4.4%, almost unchanged from 2018. However, the path has not been smooth. The ratio climbed to nearly 5% by late 2021, then stepped down in 2022 and again in 2023. Looking at the detail, domestic banks account for virtually all of the system (99.6%), so their ratio mirrors the aggregate. Foreign bank subsidiaries have a leverage ratio near 12%, but hold less than half a percent of exposures.

- Government gross financing statistics for Fiji were added to the **EMERGEPR** database.
- The Leverage Requirements Return (LRR) statistics were added to **CANADA**.
- Insolvency statistics for Australia were added to the **INTDAILY** and **INTWKLY** databases.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at a Three-Month High in October; Production & New Orders Accelerating; Employment Moderating

Recent Commentaries

Labor’s Share of Income Falls to All-Time Low in Third Quarter

Economic Letter from Asia: Asia in Clusters

Employment Cost Index: Unusually Steady Compensation Trend Reveals Slower Wage and Faster Benefit Cost Growth

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in September

Q3 GDP Gain Is Impressive, But Not Repeatable

Charts of the Week: Resilience on Narrow Foundations

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Despite resilient economy, US consumers are not very happy

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints