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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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MATLAB

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Stata

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Recent increases in US long-term rates surprisingly little impacted by inflation expectations

Jonathan Basile

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The U.S. Construction Spending report revealed total construction spending rose 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) in August following a 0.1% monthly decline in July. Over the last three months, nominal construction spending advanced at a 6.6% annualized rate, the best showing on this basis since March 2024. Near-term performance also pushed the six-month trend into positive territory (1.2% annualized) for the first time since February 2025. Recent traction, however, has not pulled the smoother year-over-year (YoY) rate out of the red. August’s -1.7% YoY figure extended the negative streak to 13 months.

Private construction (up 1.1% MoM, -3.1% YoY) accounted more of the headline advance than public construction (up 0.2% MoM). Half of the private construction gain was driven by home improvements (up 2.5% MoM). This component of residential construction has been volatile this year, so the sequential improvement is not an all-clear signal. In fact, home improvements’ August level is still about 8% below the 2026 high point (in March) and nearly 10% below the September 2025 cycle top.

Data centers drive one-third of private construction’s August increase on another strong monthly showing (up 7.5% MoM). The extraordinary AI-related expansion pushed the annual trend to a 73.2% YoY rate. Moreover, the data center share of private construction rose above 5% in August for the first time ever. The progression over the last three Augusts revealed a 1% share in 2023, a 2% share in 2024 and a 3% share in 2025. Construction spending on power facilities also has been swept up in the AI boom. August’s 0.9% MoM rise was the fifth straight, the longest stretch of gains in over a year. The momentum lifted the five-month annualized rate to 16.9% in August, the highest since December 2023. Recent improvement also supported the smoother YoY trend; the 9.7% annual pace was the best since June 2024.

Elsewhere in the private space, everything else was up modestly on the month (single-family and multifamily both up 0.2% MoM and nonresidential ex-data centers up 0.3% MoM). Even with the upticks, it did little to change the YoY trends that remain in negative territory (nonresidential ex-data centers -5.9%, single-family residential -3.5%, multifamily residential -0.6%).

The value of public construction spending continued its quiet gains, extending its winning streak to the six months ended August. On a YoY basis, public construction posted a 2.5% rate, the best performance in eleven months. Highway construction (up 0.1% MoM/4.4% YoY) has been a key support factor.

Construction spending, as it is denominated in nominal dollar terms, can be considered an aggregate budget measure for construction labor trends. Recent construction spending performance could be contributing to the acceleration in job creation in the sector, as reported by payroll provider ADP earlier this week. September’s 15,000 MoM advance for ADP construction payrolls was the best showing since March’s 32,000 MoM increase. It also extended the construction jobs’ winning streak to nine months.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- August headline gain narrowly based.
- Data center heat remains on.
- Public construction’s quiet gains continued.

U.S. Construction Spending: Home Improvement and Data Centers Drove Spending in August

Michael J. Moran

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With inflation and tighter monetary policy now front-line issues, the price index for personal consumption expenditures has arguably become the most important component of this report. Results for August were a bit unsettling. Energy prices jumped 2.3% month-to-month, which left a year-over-year change of 16.8%. Prices excluding food and energy (the core index), rose 0.2%, but the measure almost rounded up to 0.3% (0.247%). The year-over-year change in the core index totaled 3.0%, in line with other readings this year and a full percentage point above the target of the Federal Reserve. Food prices were tame in August: unchanged month-to month and up 1.9% in the past year.

Today’s report included annual benchmark revisions, which affected results back to 2021. The adjustments left the recent year-over-year changes in the PCE price indexes a touch lighter than previously believed. The headline figure for July now shows an increase of 3.4% rather than 3.7%; the core posted a revised advance of 3.0% rather than 3.3%.

The revisions to the price indexes primarily reflected changes in source data. The BEA shifted its source of data on legal services from the CPI to the PPI. Prices for computer software and accessories are now based on information from both the CPI and the PPI rather than the CPI alone. Finally, in calculating the price of portfolio management and investment-advice services, the BEA shifted from the PPI to an implicit-price measure derived from an employment statistic.

The price indexes will probably capture most of the media and market attention, but the income and consumption components are important as well. Nominal personal income rose 0.2% in August, lighter than the averages of 0.4% in the first seven months of this year and in all of 2025. After adjusting for inflation, real personal income fell 0.1%. Compensation of employees and proprietors’ income both rose 0.3% in nominal terms, but these results would translate to little change after adjusting for inflation. Rental income, interest income, and dividends were all light (less than 0.1% in nominal terms).

Despite underwhelming income in August, households spent vigorously, with nominal outlays increasing 0.9% and real spending up 0.6%. Part of this performance could be viewed as catch-up after light spending in July (real outlays up 0.1%), but the data still signal strong economic support from consumers. The figures from this report feed directly into GDP, and results for the first two months of Q3 suggest that the growth of real consumer spending in Q3 could exceed 3.0%, firmer than the average of 2.2% in the first half of this year and 2.1% over the four quarters of 2025.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Higher energy prices and still-firm increases in core prices.
- Households spend briskly after a pause in July; Q3 activity appears strong.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in August

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. international trade deficit in goods unexpectedly widened to $132.64 billion in August, the largest since March 2025, from $118.94 billion in July and $101.05 billion in June, the advance estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, pointing to a significant drag on GDP growth in Q3 2026. The August reading marked the third widening in the goods trade deficit in four months, exceeding an $85.16 billion shortfall in August 2025. A deficit of $113.9 billion for August had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a low of $61.44 billion in October 2025 (the smallest since February 2020) and a record high of $158.73 billion in March 2025.

Total goods exports rose 1.9% m/m (14.5% y/y) to $203.42 billion in August, the first m/m gain since April, after a 2.9% decline to a six-month low of $199.69 billion in July. A record high of $220.11 billion was reached in April. Exports were up 25.1% from a June 2023 low. The m/m rise in exports in August was led by an 8.3% rebound (30.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, followed by increases of 7.3% (14.8% y/y) in other goods and 2.0% (11.5% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. To the downside, exports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (-10.5%; -4.1% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (-6.9%; -1.9% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (-5.6%; +4.5% y/y) fell m/m in August.

Total goods imports advanced 5.5% m/m (27.9% y/y) to $336.05 billion in August on top of a 3.9% rebound to $318.63 billion in July, marking the sixth monthly rise in seven months and the highest level since March 2025’s record high of $340.11 billion. Imports were up 34.0% from a March 2023 low. The m/m increase in imports in August reflected gains in almost all imports end-use categories, led by an 18.7% recovery (19.7% y/y) in other goods, followed by rises of 16.6% (27.0% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 5.5% (9.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 4.0% (57.2% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 0.9% (3.2% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts. In contrast, imports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, the only end-use category with a monthly decline in August, fell 1.6% (+2.5% y/y), the second m/m fall in three months, reversing a 0.5% July increase.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $132.6 bil. in August, up $13.7 bil. (+11.5%) from July’s $118.9 bil., pointing to a significant drag on Q3’26 GDP growth.
- Exports +1.9%, first m/m gain since April, driven by an 8.3% rebound in industrial supplies & materials exports; nonauto consumer goods exports down 10.5%.
- Imports +5.5%, sixth rise in seven mths. to highest level since Mar. ’25, with m/m increases in all end-use categories except nonauto consumer goods imports (-1.6%).

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Balloons Further in August

Sandy Batten

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In the third estimate, real GDP grew 2.2% q/q saar in Q2, up from 1.5% in both the advance and the second estimates, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for an unrevised 1.5% quarterly gain. Compared with a year ago, GDP was up 2.2% versus 2.1% in both the advance and second estimates. The upward revision to Q2 GDP growth were rather widely spread across expenditure categories, led by personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment and a smaller drag from declining inventories. This was the fifth consecutive quarter in which inventories declined, a very unusual occurrence when the economy is not in a recession. This release also contained the second estimate of corporate profits. Profit growth was revised down to 8.9% q/q not annualized from 9.1% in the first estimate. However, this was still the fastest quarterly advance for profits since Q2 2021.

Personal consumption expenditures increased 3.8% q/q saar in the third estimate of Q2, up from 3.4% in the second estimate and 3.2% in the advance report. Faster growth of spending on durable goods and on services were the primary factors behind the upward revision to consumption. Fixed investment growth was also revised faster. Growth of nonresidential fixed investment was revised up to 9.0% from 8.5% in the second estimate, led by upward revisions to both structures and intellectual property. Residential investment growth was also revised up to 2.8% from 1.2% in the second estimate.

Both export and import growth were revised slightly faster but resulted in only a slight widening of the trade deficit and no revision to on overall GDP growth. The previously estimated decline in total government spending growth was revised smaller with a smaller decline in federal spending than previously estimated and a larger increase in state and local government.

Reflecting the upward revision to personal consumption and fixed investment, real domestic demand growth, already strong in the previous two estimates, was revised even stronger. Real final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory investment and net exports) increased a well above trend 3.8% q/q saar in Q2 versus 3.3% in the second estimate and 3.1% in the advance report. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (the Fed’s preferred measure of domestic demand) jumped 4.6% q/q in Q2, its largest quarterly gain since Q1 2023, up from 4.2% in the second estimate and 3.9% in the advance report.

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After having been revised higher in the second estimate, GDP inflation measures were revised down in the third estimate. GDP price inflation was revised down to 6.1% q/q saar in the third estimate from 6.4% in the second estimate, still due mostly to the surge in energy prices that occurred in Q2. The core GDP price index rose a revised 4.2%, down from 4.4% in the second estimate. PCE price inflation (the measure the Fed targets) in Q2 was also revised down to 5.0% from 5.3% in the second estimate, again reflecting the surge in energy prices, with core PCE inflation revised down to 3.3% from 3.6% previously but still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

**Today’s report also included annual benchmark revisions for the period Q1 2021 to Q1 2026.** Annual updates provide the opportunity to incorporate improvements that are generally of three types: (1) statistical changes to incorporate newly available and revised source data and to introduce new and improved methodologies, (2) changes in definitions to more accurately portray the evolving U.S. economy and to provide consistent comparisons with data for other national economies, and (3) changes in presentations to reflect the definitional and statistical changes, where necessary, or to provide additional data or perspectives for users. In addition, seasonally adjusted statistics are evaluated and revised during annual updates to reflect recalculated seasonal factors.

In general, these revisions were generally small. After the benchmark revision, annual real GDP grew 3.4% at an annual rate from 2020 to 2025, up slightly from the previously reported 3.3% increase. Real personal consumption expenditures growth slowed marginally to a still well-above trend 3.9% from 4.0% previously. Nonresidential business investment posted the largest upward revision, rising 5.9% from 2020 to 2025 versus 5.4% previously estimated. Residential investment fell a revised 1.3%, down slightly from -1.1% previously. Growth of exports and imports were revised up marginally. And government spending growth was revised up to 1.8% from 1.4%.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The third estimate of Q2 real GDP raised growth to 2.2% q/q saar from 1.5% in both the advance and second estimate.
- In the annual benchmark revision, Q1 growth was revised up to 2.5% from 2.1%. 
- The sources of the Q3 revision were rather widespread—leading the way, faster consumption and nonresidential investment and a smaller drag from inventories
- The strong Q2 domestic demand growth reported in the advance and second estimates was revised even stronger.
- The Q2 rise in corporate profits were revised down slightly but still posted the strongest quarterly advance since Q2 2021.
- Total benchmark revisions were relatively small with average annual GDP growth from 2020 to 2025 revised up only 0.1%-point to a robust 3.4%.
- The largest annual revision was a 0.5%-point upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment growth.

U.S. GDP Growth Revised Up in both Q1 and Q2; Benchmark Revision Small

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications fell 6.0% w/w (-37.0% y/y) in the week ending September 25, the fourth consecutive weekly decline, after declining 1.5% w/w (-41.5% y/y) in the week ending September 18, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 4.3% w/w (-14.2% y/y) in the latest week, after edging down 0.8% w/w (-11.2% y/y) in the September 18 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 8.7% w/w (-56.4% y/y) in the September 25 week following a decline of 2.6% w/w (-62.0% y/y) in the September 18 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan jumped 19bps to 7.52% in the week ending September 25 from 7.33% in the week ending September 18, reaching its highest level since November 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 9bps to 6.81% in the September 25 week from 6.72% in the September 18 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate increased 12bps to 7.42% in the latest week from 7.30% in the September 18 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 54bps to 6.92% in the September 25 week from 6.38% in the September 18 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 38.3% of total applications in the week of September 25 from 39.3% in the week ending September 18. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 10.3% in the latest week from 9.8% in the September 18 week.

The average size of a mortgage rose 0.9% w/w (-5.8% y/y) to $384,200 in the week ending September 25, after rising 0.6% w/w (-11.4% y/y) to $380,700 in the week ending September 18. The average size of a purchase loan also increased 0.9% w/w to $450,900 in the September 25 week after rising 1.0% w/w to $446,900 in the September 18 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 0.6% w/w to $276,700 in the week ending September 25 after declining 0.5% w/w to $278,400 in the September 18 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing both declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans jumped 19bps to 7.52%.
- Average loan size rose moderately in the September 25 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the September 25 Week

Robert Brusca

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Inflation has flared across the largest economies of the monetary union. The headline boost is clear. The core or ex-energy gains also are clear but are more moderate; more moderate but nonetheless excessive in September. Largely over the last three months, inflation has been percolating.

The chart shows a clear, abrupt acceleration of inflation in the three largest monetary union economies: Germany, France, and Italy. Twelve-month inflation rates for the top four economies range from 3.3% in Germany to 5.0% in Spain. Over six months, the range is 3.5% (Germany) to 6.2% (Spain). Over three months, the stakes rise sharply, with annualized inflation spurts at a high of 9.1% (Spain) vs. ‘only’ 5.5% (Italy).

Inflation accelerates from a year ago to 12 months, from 12 months to six months, and from six months to three months on all headline comparisons except for Italy from six months to three months. But even on that comparison, the downshift in the pace is minor, and three-month inflation in Italy is still stronger than 12-month inflation. The inflation pressure is rising even if the gains are not monotonic.

Core inflation is high and mostly rising as well. However, core inflation is less prone to have risen over 12 months compared to 12 months ago. On that basis, only Spain’s core inflation has risen. German ex-energy inflation steps down, and Italian core inflation drops off to a below-target 1.5% over 12 months. To restart these comparisons for the three-country inflation ranges on the core or ex-energy measures over one year, we see a range from 1.5% to 3.1%. Over six months, inflation accelerates for all three, but the low end sees Italian inflation only up to a 1.6% pace, whereas the high end at 3% is Spain. However, Spain’s strong gain marks a deceleration from its 12-month pace. Over three months, inflation kicks up its heels across the core and ex-energy measures, from a low of 2.4% in Italy to a high of 3.6% in Spain. And core inflation accelerates in all three countries over three months.

Core inflation has been slower to rise, but once it rises it tends to be more stubborn. The global push toward higher inflation is still in gear as oil prices are lingering high. Stock markets have been trying to weather the storm of high inflation and an uncertain future. All eyes are turning to the winter season even though it is only fall. Winter is cropping up to be a difficult one for Europe, with low energy stockpiles as the season approaches. There is a lot to worry about and very little we can be sure of. As aspects of the future draw nearer, we’re gaining focus on what matters, and what matters and what is under control are, increasingly, two different things.

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Europe

Inflation Sallies Forth

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The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) continued to depict a labor market in which demand and supply are relatively balanced. Job openings slid 256,000 to 7.079 million in August from an upwardly revised 7.335 million in July (previously 7.271 million). This is the lowest level of openings since March and was the third monthly decline in the past four months. The financial market had expected a small decline in openings in August. The job openings rate (the ratio of openings to nonfarm employment plus openings) declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in July. In August, the number of openings fell while the number of unemployed increased. However, the number of openings continued to marginally exceed the number of unemployed for the fifth consecutive month. After openings had significantly exceeded the number of unemployed from early 2022 to the middle of 2024, the two have been roughly in balance since then.

Private sector openings fell 214,000 in August to 6.348 million after a 142,000 increase in July. The performance was varied across sectors but was generally weak. A 61,000 gain in leisure and hospitality was the largest increase, following by increases of 45,000 in information and 43,000 in trade and transport. Openings in business and professional services fell 119,000, their third monthly decline in the past four months and a possible reflection of the rise in AI. Openings in private education and health services slumped 101,000; construction openings declined 48,000, their first monthly decline in six months; manufacturing openings fell 54,000 but failed to reverse the 75,000 gain in July.

Total hires increased 46,000 in August, the third monthly rise in the past four months, to 5.192 million after a 186,000 drop in July. The hiring rate edged up to 3.3% from 3.2% in July. The August rebound in hiring was due solely to a 46,000 increase in state and local government hiring. Private sector hiring edged down 1,000 in August. Oddly, manufacturing led the hiring in August with an increase of 39,000, followed closely by a 36,000 increase in professional and business services hiring. Construction hiring fell 50,000, the first only decline in the past three months. Information hiring slipped 18,000, and leisure and hospitality hiring declined 10,000, the fourth decline in the past five months.

Total separations fell for the second consecutive month, declining 58,000 in August to 5.070 million on top of a 209,000 drop in July. The separation rate was unchanged at 3.2%. The August decline in total separations was led by a 61,000 decrease in layoffs to 1.641 million, the lowest level since March 2025 and below the 2024 and 2025 monthly averages. Private sector layoffs fell 50,000 in August, led by a 58,000 drop in construction and 56,000 decline in professional and business services. Quits declined 23,000 in August to 3.066 million following a 124,000 decrease in July. Quits have been range-bound so far this year but continue to indicate that workers are feeling uncertain about their employment prospects and hence are choosing to remain in their current jobs.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Openings slid 256,000 in August, the third monthly decline in the past four months.
- However, the number of openings marginally exceeded the number of unemployed for the fifth consecutive month.
- Hiring edged up 46,000, the third monthly increase in the past four months, due entirely to increased state and local government hiring.
- Separations fell 58,000, led by a 61,000 decline in layoffs.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Slipped and Hiring Edged Up in August

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The EU Commission indexes weakened in September, with the overall index falling to 97.9 from 98.4 in August; however, the month's level is still stronger than recent readings prior to August (the strongest since February, excluding August). The index ranks at its 31.9 percentile on data since 1985, marking the month as below its median by a good margin. The median observation on data presented as a percentile ranking occurs at a ranking of 50%.

**Monthly sector readings and perspectives**
The industrial reading improved month-to-month to -4 in September from -5 in August. The rise on the month lifts it just above its historic mean, and above its historic median, with a 54th percentile ranking. Consumer confidence slipped on the month to -16.5 from -15.5 in August. The consumer reading is substantially below its historic mean, which occurs at a reading of -9. The ranking for consumer confidence on the month is in its 12.4 percentile, an extremely weak reading. It has been this way for consumer confidence for some time. Even in the United States, where the economy is doing much better, readings on various consumer surveys have been exceptionally weak. The retailing assessment was unchanged at -6 in September; a reading of -6 is above its historic mean, which occurs at a value of -8. The month’s level also leaves retailing above its historic median at a standing of 56.6%. Construction was also unchanged at -5 in September; construction has been steady at -5 for a number of months in a row. Its historic mean is -15, and the -5 reading this month leaves construction at a 68.6 percentile, a quite firm level despite the negative diffusion reading. Services were also unchanged in the month at +6. Services have gotten slightly stronger in recent months. The historic mean for services is +6, so the sector is at its mean, but it is below its median, with a 39.4 percentile ranking.

**Most country readings show gains on the month**
The reading for the overall EMU level declined in September, falling by 0.5%. In addition, seven reporting countries issued negative readings in September. Two of those countries, France and Italy, are among the four largest monetary union economies. However, the other two large EMU economies, Germany and Spain, marked improvements, with Germany rising 0.6% month-to-month in September and Spain rising 3.3% after a 2.1% decline in August.

**Rankings remain overwhelmingly weak**
Looking at the rankings by country, among the 18 reporting countries only seven have country-specific ratings above their historic medians. Among the four largest EMU economies, only Spain is above its historic median with a 68.2 percentile ranking. Germany has a 29.6 percentile ranking, France is in its 36.9 percentile, and Italy is in its 44.8 percentile. The strongest reporting countries are small countries, with Greece posting a 73rd percentile ranking and Lithuania a 71.7 percentile ranking, followed by Spain’s 68.2 percentile ranking as the next highest reading.

**Industry is back...for now**
It's good to see the industrial sector back up at a reading above its historic median and to be joined by retailing and construction. Retailing is a particularly rewarding sector to see performing well because consumer confidence is performing so poorly, with a 12.4 percentile standing. However, the services sector continues to lag with a 39.4 percentile standing, and that could be a problem because that's the job-creating sector for most economic units, and it's certainly true of the monetary union.

**The job front** 
On the job front, industrial employment and construction employment sectors report above 50th percentile standings in their monthly responses. With the employment in construction at a 71st percentile reading and for industry at a 68th percentile reading, we have some good news. However, for services, the employment reading is only at the 37th percentile, and that is the sector most responsible for delivering employment opportunities. Under consumer confidence, unemployment expectations have a 64.6 percentile standing, nearly a top one-third reading on that gauge. The U.S. economy is doing much better than the European economy; yet, there too, consumer confidence readings are weak, very weak. But the U.S. economy is growing strongly, and Europe continues to grow as well; a lack of confidence so far has not been an impediment to growth. As we can see so far this month, the manufacturing sector, the industrial sector, seems to be doing relatively better; however, everything is at risk due to events in the Middle East. Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and what happens to oil prices are critical to what happens next. In addition, there's a great deal of concern about Europe and its low stocks of heating oil as winter approaches. The monthly readings from the EU indexes showed a step back on the month, but that was after the sharp improvement a month ago. In general, the European economy is doing a little bit better, with sectors in an upswing more so than they had previously, but conditions remain substantially touch-and-go, dependent on unforeseeable events.

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EU Commission Indexes Weaken in September

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The US deficit in international trade in August widened by $12.7 billion (13.7%) to $105.6 billion, adding to notable slippage in July, when the deficit widened by $21.6 billion (30.4%). The recent deficits are well shy of the shortfalls seen in early 2025, when the rush to front-run likely tariffs led to surges in imports. Still, they are among the widest seen in the past few years, and they are well beyond readings seen before the pandemic (chart, left).

The trade results in the past few months have been driven by both strong imports and soft exports. Imports have increased noticeably in three of the past four months (and six of the past seven), with the increases in July and August being especially sharp at approximately 4% each. Exports, in contrast, eased from May through July before registering a small advance in August (chart, below). The shifts in exports and imports have largely been on the goods side; trade in services has shown modest changes recently, with the net result being a slight improvement in the services surplus.



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It might seem as though the surge in goods imports in recent months can be explained by another rush to beat the imposition of tariffs. President Trump in July signed proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian goods, and the duties became effective on August 22. However, this presidential action did not seem to have a meaningful impact on trade. Imports from Canada in July were in the middle of the range from the past year; they moved into the upper portion of that range in August, but the magnitude of the change did not suggest a marked shift in behavior by Canadian exporters. A review of trade with other countries shows noticeable increases in US imports from several in July and August, while US exports to numerous countries have softened in recent months.

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The trade figures for July and August suggest that net exports will be a notable drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. The figures on goods trade in the past two months point to a negative contribution from net exports to GDP growth of approximately three percentage points, which would be one of the largest drags in modern history (chart, left). This estimate, of course, could shift. The data in hand could be revised, and September results could provide an offset. Also, the improvement in services trade will partly offset the slippage in goods trade, although the existing figures suggest only a modest influence.

- The past few months have shown strong imports and soft exports
- Net exports are likely to be a substantial drag on GDP growth in Q3


US International Trade: Deficit Surges in July and August

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**EMERGELA** → **Argentina** → Public Finance and Debt → Tax, Social Security, and Customs Revenue

Tax, social security and customs revenue statistics for Argentina were added to the **EMERGELA** database. This table includes almost fifty line items of government revenue sources. Monthly data reported in Argentine pesos are sourced from Agencia de Recaudacíon y Control Aduanero and start as early as January 2003.

Chart: The PAIS tax was originally created in December 2019 under a 5-year mandate meant to curb capital flight amid chronic dollar scarcity. Milei initially raised it out of pure fiscal necessity, as it was one of the fastest levers available to raise cash while a broader stabilization plan was being implemented. PAIS became a major revenue source during this transitional period. In June 2024, it generated a record 780 billion pesos and over 2024 it collected 6.27 trillion pesos. PAIS expired in early 2025 and was not renewed, making it the most consequential individual tax change of the past few years in Argentina.

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**EIURSKF** → Central Bank Diffusion Index

Monetary policy diffusion indexes were added to **EIURSKF**. These data track the direction and intensity of monetary policy shifts across 43 geographic and thematic aggregates. (+) values signal net monetary tightening, whereas (-) values signal net easing. They can be used to monitor synchronization in monetary policy, compare policy stances across regions, and evaluate cross-border investment and risk assessments. Monthly, quarterly and annual data are sourced from the EIU and start in 2010. Quarterly forecasts currently extend through the end of 2027 – annual forecasts through 2030.

Chart: There is a high degree of correlation between the EIU diffusion index for North America and the actual changes in the US FFR. The indexes are weighted by size of each country’s economy, so this correlation makes sense. For 2027, the EIU diffusion index is signaling policy rate tightening to continue into Q1 with all easing occurring in Q2, however, this can change as the EIU data is updated on a weekly basis. The current BCFF is projecting no additional tightening in 2027 with some easing in Q2 and Q4.

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- Electricity supply statistics for Bhutan were added to the **ENERGY** database.
- Tax, social security and customs revenue statistics for Argentina were added to the **EMERGELA** database.
- Monetary policy diffusion indexes were added to **EIURSKF**.

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