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US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Robert Brusca

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GfK consumer climate for Germany improves slightly to -29.8 in June from -33.1 in May. In terms of monthly point changes, it's a reasonable improvement month-to-month however this is now the 10th weakest monthly consumer climate reading over the last 25 years and so it's an extremely weak reading. Last month was an even   weaker reading, but that was the 7th weakest reading all time for this index. All the other even weaker readings were during Covid. This is a very weak report, it ranks 286th out of 296 observations.

**A very weak month despite some technical improvement** 
GfK projects a climate figure for June, however, it's underlying data for components are up to date through May. As of May, economic expectations improved slightly to -11.2 from -13.7. Income expectations improved a lot more to -13.0 from -24.4. However, that -24.4 figure was a collapse from -6.3 the month before, so that the rebound in May still leaves a significant net decline over the last two months. We should not be too focused on the month-to-month improvement. Income expectation’s April reading was likely a shock reaction to global events in the Middle East. The propensity to buy index improved to -13.2 in May from -14.4 but once again it's a case of there still being a 2-month decline on the books since the March reading was -10.9 for the propensity to buy. The even weaker propensity to buy readings historically were all in the wake of Covid.

**Very weak rank standing**
On the whole it's another week reading from the GfK survey. This is further underscored by the rank- or the count-percentile standing of the headline which stands in its lower 3.1 percentile. Economic expectations are in their lower 19th-percentile, income expectations are in their lower 13th-percentile and the propensity to buy is in its lower 23.9-percentile. All of these are rankings that are infrequently weaker than their readings in May.

**Select European comparisons**
As a comparison I include the most up-to-date readings for Italy, France, and the UK on confidence. Italy and France have up-to-date readings through April; the UK has an up-to-date reading through May. The three countries all show declines in confidence from April to May; the UK shows a slight improvement from May to June. If we look at the most current readings, the percentile standing for Italy is a 50-percentile standing, which implies that the current reading is right on top of its median. For France it's a 5.8 percentile standing, marking the reading as weaker less than 6% of the time. For the UK, the May standing is a 26.5 percentile standing, just above the lower quartile of its historic queue of data.

**Wrap up**
There was nothing reassuring in these data. The economies are struggling as we saw in the S&P PMI data from yesterday from the early reporters of PMI statistics. Of course, the inflation data are uniformly poor globally, so it remains a difficult time and the consumers are feeling a good deal of pressure from inflation and a certain amount of economic uncertainty.
 


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Germany

German Confidence in June (GfK) Remains Extremely Weak

Michael J. Moran

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Housing starts fell 2.8% in April, but the drop followed a jump of 12% in March that had pushed activity to one of the firmest levels of the past few years. Even with the decline in April, starts remained in the upper end of the recent range. In fact, March and April combined brought the best two-month performance since late 2023.

The housing sector has been generally soft in the past few years. Activity was strong in late 2020 and 2021 as the economy recovered from the pandemic and as low interest rates boosted affordability. However, the market cooled in 2022 as the Fed tightened monetary policy, and home construction has been lethargic since then. The contribution of residential construction to GDP growth has been negative in seven of the past eight quarters (subtracting 0.1 percentage point on average). The improvement in multi-family activity offers the prospect of a positive contribution in the quarters ahead, but it would probably not be a large one. Single-family activity has a heavier weight in residential construction, and recent results have not been firm enough to suggest meaningful gains.

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Multi-family construction led the advance in the past two months, increasing 14.7% in March and 10.3% in April. The trend in multi-family starts had been moving sideways for a time (note the 6-month average in the left chart), but recent gains have quickened the pace, perhaps renewing the upward drift that began in 2024. Single-family construction stirred in March (up 10.7 percent), but it gave back much of the advance with a decline of 9.0% in April. Still, the six-month average of single family starts is tilting upward, although only mildly so.

The slight pick up in single-family starts is encouraging, but recent movement in building permits suggests caution. Single-family permits fell in both March and April, offsetting a hint of improvement in February and leaving little change in the six-month average (chart, lower right). Multi-family permits have moved erratically in recent months, but they are drifting higher on average.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- March & April brought the best two-month performance since late 2023.
- Multi-family activity has led the advance; single-family activity lags.


Housing Starts: Hints of Improvement

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You may recognize the excerpted headline quote as "borrowing" from US Admiral David Farragut. It is a famous quote from a US Civil war battle in which he charged ahead in his ship regardless of the risk. This month the global manufacturing PMIs themselves are charging ahead regardless of the rise of inflation, the war in Ukraine, the war in Iran, the closure or impedance in the strait of Hormuz, and the mucking up of oil and nonoil supply lines. Full speed ahead! 

**Trend…**
The chart shows an ongoing recovery in manufacturing. It also shows that conditions are only ‘better’ and not ‘strong.’  Yet when we rank these individual PMIs against their historic results back to January 2022, the median rank across these 18 reporters is 90.8-percent, signaling that they have been higher less than 10% of the time back to 2022. Of course, 2022-2023 represented low points for manufacturing after Covid. There was a strong recovery from Covid and then the sucker-punch from the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Nonetheless on that timeline recovery is still in progress and – so far- not even the Middle East war and other geopolitical turmoil, including a real donnybrook within NATO, has sidetracked it despite the impact on oil prices. That may not last, but it is the current situation.

**A test for central banks**
With inflation rising central banks are being put to the test. They failed the post Covid test and waited too long to hike rates. We did get recovery but inflation, too. Will they do that again? Or will they hike rates sooner? Will they try not to make the same mistake and make, instead, a new mistake by getting too tight too soon? Markets simply do not know. But in the US and UK there are five years of missing monetary inflation targets and in other key countries the inflation targets also have been broadly missed even if headline inflation recently had dipped into the target range in the last few months or so. Central banks are facing a challenge after their last challenge was not met with success and after a relatively long period – a solid legacy- of missing on the promises they made to the public on inflation. 

**Solid PMI trends:** The sequential, as well as the current, monthly data show how widespread change has been tilted in a positive direction. While conditions are broadly better, the current month’s median reading is only at a PMI value 52.4. So, manufacturing conditions are only slightly above breakeven (a PMI of 50) but they have been weak for so long that this is an exceptionally strong reading compared to the last four and half years of results. 

**Some examples:** The weak manufacturing readings on the month by ranking are for Turkey, Russia, India, and Indonesia. However, these are own-PMI comparisons and India is one of the strongest readings in April on a cross-section basis (Compared to other countries in April, rather than to its own history) having the third strongest manufacturing reading in April. Malaysia, South Korea. Taiwan, and Japan each have the strongest readings (or nearly so) since January of 2022; as a result, Taiwan and Japan also rank one and two among 19-reporter readings in April. South Korea ranks sixth, But Malaysia has been so weak it still ranks only 11th despite a 99.2% high-low standing.

**In Sum:** The bottom line is that recovery has not been derailed. Yet… But this is only an April report. And, given time, this rebound could be untracked. It is only a rebound from the lows. So, the expansion is still at risk even with global labor markets still tight based on unemployment readings. Economic growth is a slippery slope; the trend is only your friend until it turns on you. 


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Global MFG PMIs Sweep Higher: Damn the Torpedoes!

Andrew Cates

**Inflation angst and renewed bond market jitters**
The recent rise in US Treasury yields has coincided with a renewed upswing in US economic surprises, particularly on the inflation and labour market fronts. As chart 1 illustrates below, our newly developed and combined Haver US Labour Market Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index (see methodological note at the end of this document) has moved back into positive territory, indicating that incoming data for labour market activity and inflation have, on balance, been coming in stronger than consensus expectations. This rebound has occurred against an increasingly fragile global backdrop marked by rising oil prices, shipping disruptions and renewed geopolitical tensions linked to the Middle East conflict. Markets are becoming increasingly concerned that higher energy costs could feed into broader inflation pressures at a time when underlying labour market momentum remains firmer than many expected. 

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**Central banks face renewed inflation concern**
A rise in short-term government bond yields has become increasingly broad-based across the major developed economies, with UK, US and Japanese two-year yields all trending higher in recent weeks. Investors are increasingly concerned that renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East and higher energy prices could prolong global inflation pressures just as many central banks had been preparing for a gradual easing cycle. UK yields remain elevated amid persistent domestic inflation concerns, while Japanese yields have also continued to edge higher as markets reassess the outlook for Bank of Japan policy normalization in a world of rising imported energy costs. The synchronized move higher in front-end yields reflects growing unease that central banks may ultimately face a more difficult trade-off between supporting growth and containing another inflationary impulse.

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**Weak labour bargaining power may limit inflation persistence**
Despite growing market anxiety about renewed inflation pressures, an important structural counterpoint comes from the continued weakness in labour’s share of US national income. As the next chart illustrates, labour’s share of nonfarm business income has declined to multi-decade lows. Historically, sustained inflation cycles have often been associated with stronger labour bargaining power, rising wage shares and the emergence of wage-price dynamics. Today, however, workers appear to retain relatively limited pricing power within the broader economy, particularly compared with earlier inflationary eras such as the 1970s. This may help explain why longer-term inflation expectations have, so far, remained relatively contained despite higher energy prices and geopolitical instability. 

At the same time as this, the prolonged decline in labour’s share of income may also help explain the broader rise of populist politics across many advanced economies. Weak wage growth relative to profits, rising inequality and a growing perception that the gains from globalization and asset appreciation have been unevenly distributed have contributed to mounting political dissatisfaction. 

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**Energy markets remain under strain**
Yet the principal counterargument to the more benign inflation outlook suggested by weak labour bargaining power lies on the supply side — most notably in energy markets. As the chart shows, oil prices have remained elevated even as broader measures of geopolitical risk have started to retreat from their recent extremes. The Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index suggests that fears of a major regional escalation in the Middle East have eased somewhat. However, Brent crude prices continue to reflect persistent disruption to energy flows and shipping routes, particularly given the ongoing effective closure and disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This divergence matters because financial markets and central banks are increasingly confronting the possibility that supply-side inflation pressures may persist even without a further escalation in military conflict. In other words, fading war fears do not necessarily imply a normalization in energy markets. Instead, the global economy may be entering a more prolonged period of structurally higher energy and transport costs, adding to inflation pressures even as underlying demand conditions soften. The result is an increasingly uncomfortable backdrop for policymakers, combining weaker growth momentum with renewed upside risks to inflation and interest rates.

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**Benign Core CPI Inflation For Now**
Ultimately, what will matter most for central banks is not simply higher oil prices themselves, but the extent to which those higher costs feed through into broader underlying inflation. On that front, the recent inflation data from several advanced economies have, so far, remained remarkably benign. As the chart illustrates, core inflation measures pubished this week in the UK, Canada and Austria have all continued to moderate despite renewed geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. This suggests that the broader inflationary impulse across goods, services and wages remains contained for now.

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**The AI Investment Boom**
Yet even as markets grapple with inflation risks, energy shocks and slowing global demand, financial markets continue to be dominated by one extraordinarily powerful countervailing force: the AI investment boom. As the chart illustrates, capital expenditure among the major technology firms — including Meta, Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft — has exploded higher over the past several years as the race to build generative AI infrastructure intensifies. Collectively, these firms have spent almost $1.5 trillion on capital expenditure since early 2021, with spending in Q1 2026 alone reaching an extraordinary $179 billion, nearly double the level of a year earlier.

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Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated surge in energy prices have pushed inflation and bond market concerns back to the forefront of global financial markets. Investors are increasingly worried that central banks may now face even greater difficulty in bringing inflation fully under control, particularly in economies where underlying price pressures had already remained sticky prior to the latest energy shock. Recent upside surprises in US labour market and inflation data have already contributed to higher Treasury yields and a broader global backup in short-term government bond yields across the major economies (charts 1 and 2). Yet the picture is not entirely one-sided. Labour’s share of US national income remains historically weak, suggesting limited underlying wage bargaining power and helping explain why broader inflation persistence could ultimately remain contained (chart 3). Meanwhile, oil prices have remained elevated despite some moderation in broader geopolitical risk indicators, reflecting persistent supply-side disruption and ongoing stress surrounding key global energy and shipping routes (chart 4). Even so, recent core inflation data from economies including the UK, Canada and Austria suggest that pass-through from higher energy costs into broader underlying inflation has so far remained relatively limited (chart 5). At the same time, financial markets continue to be supported by an extraordinary AI-driven investment boom, with technology firms engaged in an unprecedented surge in spending on data centres, semiconductors and energy infrastructure (chart 6). Increasingly, the global economy appears caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed supply-side inflation risks on one side and a historic wave of AI-driven technological investment on the other.

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Charts of the Week: Surprise, Surprise

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 3,000 to 209,000 in the week ending May 16, from 212,000 in the week ending May 9, revised from 211,000. The four-week average declined by 1,500 to 202,500 in the week ending May 16, from 204,000 the May 9 week, revised marginally from 203,750. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 210,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 6,000 to 1.782 million in the week ending May 9, from 1.776 million in the week ending May 2, revised from 1.782 million. The four-week moving average declined to 1.773 million in the latest week from 1.780 in the May 2 week, revised from 1.781 million. The four-week moving average reached the lowest level since January 2024. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of May 9. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending May 2, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.17%) and Washington (2.11%). The lowest rates were in Florida and South Dakota (both 0.30%), Louisiana (0.32%), Alabama (0.35%), Arkansas (0.37%), North Carolina (0.38%), Tennessee (0.47%) and Iowa, Kansas, Virginia and Virgin Islands (all 0.48%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.97%), New York (1.61%), Illinois (1.51%), Pennsylvania (1.26%), and Texas (1.01%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.



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- New claims declined by 3,000 to 209,000 in the week ending May 16.
- Continuing claims rose by 6,000 to 1.782 million.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of May 9.


U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of May 16

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CPI inflation in the UK eased sharply in April with the headline making no change at all and the core rising by only 0.1%. The headline is a marked departures from March when the UK CPI rose by 0.4% as the core put in another good month, rising 0.1%. Sequentially, UK inflation as measured by the CPIH has been relatively stable with a 3% growth rate over 12 months, a 3% annual rate over three-months, and a gain of 2.9% annualized over six-months; it's about as steady as you can get. The core (CPH excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) rises 2.9% over 12 months, eases to a 2.7% annual rate over six-months, then rises at a 2% annual rate over three-months.

**Low inflation amid a global surge in oil prices**
The core is showing significant temperance and sequential improvement. Meanwhile, globally oil prices are flaring sharply, and most countries are seeing inflation rates rise. An energy cap in the UK is holding energy costs down and helping to keep the headline rate of inflation low. However, the cap can only work its magic for so long, eventually persisting strength in oil prices are going to show through into the headline index.

**Acceleration tendencies abate**
In April, 50% of the categories of the CPI H showed acceleration compared to March; in March only 41% had accelerated compared to February; in February only 41% had accelerated compared to January. On a broad basis, inflation acceleration has been substantially neutralized or controlled. Sequential calculations show that over three-months acceleration has occurred in 50% of the categories, over six-months and 12-months, however, acceleration has occurred in only 33% of the categories, indicating that there has been a relatively long-lived environment of inflation temperance.

**Still Too high**
However, inflation in the UK remains relatively high. The HICP measure, which is comparable to the measures used on the continent by the European Central Bank, has a 69th-percentile standing when ranked on data back to 2000. The CPIH has a 75.1-percentile standing and the CPIH-core has an 81.5 percentile standing. These are based on year-over-year percent changes and the two inflation gauges.

Inflation rankings tell us that inflation in the UK is still relatively high compared to how it has performed over the last 25 years. However, what's most important is inflation relative to the target of 2%. At 3% the inflation rate is too high and at 2.9% the core inflation rate is too-high as well. However, we see the shorter-term inflation rates particularly for the core have come down. The core rate over three-months has even reached the 2% mark, which is both encouraging and surprising. The UK economy has been performing poorly. The Bank of England will certainly be making its next monetary policy decision based on the performance of inflation with some assessment and how the trend is faring as well as with reference to economic performance which has been marginal. We will have to see how the BOE looks at the effect of the energy cap. At the same time there's a great deal of political turmoil in the UK to pair with difficult global geopolitical conditions


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United Kingdom

UK CPIH Eases Amid Global Oil Price Shock 

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Mortgage applications declined 2.3% w/w (+18.9% y/y) in the week ending May 15, after rising 1.7% w/w (15.5% y/y) in the week ending May 8, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house dropped 4.1% w/w (+8.0% y/y) in the May 15 week, following a rise of 3.9% w/w (6.7% y/y) in the May 8 week.  Applications for loan refinancing edged down 0.1% w/w (+34.8% y/y) in the latest week after declining 0.8% w/w (+28.3% y/y) in the May 8 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 9bps to 6.73% in the week ending May 15 from 6.64% in the week ending May 8. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 12bps to 6.11% in the latest week from 5.99% in the week ending May 8. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 5bps to 6.69% in the May 15 week from 6.64% in the May 8 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM also rose 5bps to 6.07% in the latest week from 6.02% in the week ending May 8.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.9% of total applications in the week of May 15 from 40.8% in the May 8 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 9.6% in the May 15 week from 8.8% in the week ending May 8.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 1.4% w/w (+3.5% y/y) to $403,200 in the week ending May 15, after retrenching 0.5% w/w (+2.9% y/y) to $409,000 in the week ending May 8. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.1% w/w (+4.6% y/y) to $466,900 in the latest week from $467,200 in the May 8 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 3.0% w/w (+8.1% y/y) to $314,700 in the May 15 week from $324,500 in the May 8 week. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 9bps to 6.73%. 
- Average loan size declined.


U.S. Mortgage Applications dropped in the May 15 Week 

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Japan’s GDP rose 2.1% annualized in 2026-Q1. The gain beat expectations for the quarter. The 2.1% rise was the largest gain since a 2.7% rise in 2024-Q3. However, it still leaves the year-on-year gain for GDP at 0.4%, the same as for 2025-Q4. And these are the weakest growth rates since Q1 and Q2 of 2024 when Japan’s GDP was declining. 

Private consumption in 2026-Q1 rose by 1.1% quarterly at an annualized rate, its strongest gain in a year. Still, the year-on-year rise in private consumption slowed to 1% from 1.4% in 2025 Q4. Growth in private consumption on a year-on-year basis is the weakest it has been since 2024-Q4. 

Despite some signs of GDP/Consumption stirring, the quarterly performance is not enough to boost the year-on-year growth rates to a position of strength, let alone firmness. Japan has simply been struggling for a while. And now with inflation bulging the BoJ has been super careful to move rates exceptionally slowly so that real interest rates in Japan remain exceptionally low (negative, still) and the prospect of rate normalization in Japan still seems to be a distant dream. 

New PM Sanae Takaichi called her snap election and improved her grip on government and is still looking to stimulate the economy, but Japan’s fiscal position is now so precarious that even the usual incantation that Japan owns most of its debt to itself (its own residents) has not been reassuring. Japan has become wary of is debt-to-GDP ratio. The time for a fiscal surge has passed and there is talk instead of a new industrialization policy to try to stimulate the economy within the realm of current spending trends by offering improved incentives for growth. 

Capital formation in GDP grew by 2.1% in 2026-Q1, a down shift for 2025-Q4, but capital spending is in a period of some volatility. The year-on-year gains show a step up in Q1 spending to a pace of 1.5% from 1.2% in the previous quarter. The five-year growth rate for capital spending is only 0.8% per year. Still there is not much here to build economic revival on. 

Plant and equipment spending has weakened in Q1, showing an annualized Q/Q gain of 1.1% and that compares to five-year annualized growth of 1.8%. Year-on-year plant and equipment growth is at 2.8%. 

Spending on housing turned sharply higher in Q4 with a smaller continued gain Q/Q in 2026-Q1. Still, after some considerable weakness quarterly, the year-on-year gain in housing spending in Japan in 2026-Q1 is -3.1% marking the third quarter in a row of declining spending on housing year-over-year. 

Net exports in Japan turned sharply higher in 2026-Q1 and year-on-year the change in the GDP-net exports balance swung from negative to positive. The annual improvement in the net export position is still only half of what it had been over the last five years. Export growth spiked while import growth stepped up in 2025-Q1. Exports and imports over the past year both growth more slowly than their 5-year averages.

Domestic demand picked up a bit Q/Q in 2026, but the year-on-year growth slipped to 0.3% compared to a gain of 1.2% in the previous quarter. 

Japanese officials are engaged in active market talk to try to restrain further slippage in the yen. Markets buzz with rumors of intervention that has not happened for over a month. Japan’s decision on interest rate is also caught up in its concerns about the yen. Meanwhile, as Japan imports all its fuel and rising energy prices are a concern in Japan. Yet the concern is about the future more than anything else since Japan tends to sign long-dated energy contracts and likely has locked up its oil price costs for this year. Still, the ongoing pressure has put conditions in doubt for the year ahead. 

On balance Japan growth in 2026-Q1 was somewhat better than expected but it has done nothing to assuage concerns about the way forward. Ongoing inflation and a reticence to hike rates to address inflation continue to stalk the policy outlook as PM Takaichi looks for a way out of Japan’s weak growth trap. 









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Japan

Japan GDP Outperforms Expectations

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Mortgage applications dropped 8.5% w/w (+10.1% y/y) in the week ending May 22, after having declined 2.3% w/w (+18.9% y/y) in the week ending May 15, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.4% w/w (+4.7% y/y) in the latest week, after dropping 4.1% w/w (+8.0% y/y) in the May 15 week.  Applications for loan refinancing plunged 18.1% w/w (+18.9% y/y) in the May 22 week, following a small decline of 0.1% w/w (+34.8% y/y) in the May 15 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 11bps to 6.84% in the week ending May 22 from 6.73% in the week ending May 15. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 7bps to 6.18% in the May 22 week from 6.11% in the May 15 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 11bps to 6.80% in the latest week from 6.69% in the May 15 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 4bps to 6.11% in the May 22 week from 6.07% in the May 15 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 37.5% of total applications in the week of May 22 from 41.9% in the May 15 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged down to 9.4% in the May 22 week from 9.6% in the May 15 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 3.8% w/w (8.4% y/y) to $418,400 in the week ending May 22, following a decline of 1.4% w/w (+3.5% y/y) to $403,200 in the week ending May 15. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.4% w/w (7.3% y/y) to $473,600 in the latest week, after edging down 0.1% w/w (+4.6% y/y) to $466,900 in the May 15 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 3.7% w/w (15.8% y/y) to $326,400 in the week ending May 22, after declining 3.0% w/w (+8.1% y/y) to $314,700 in the May 15 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 11bps to 6.73%, after rising 9bps in the prior week. 
- Average loan size rose.

U.S. Mortgage Applications dropped in the May 22 Week

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Featured Data Additions, May 27, 2026

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The Conference Board’s index of Consumer Confidence inched lower in May (off 0.7%), but the change occurred from an upward revised level in April (firmer by 1.1%). These changes continued the recent pattern of modest month-to-month shifts, although the headline index lost noticeable ground during 2025, leaving recent readings in the low end of the range for the current expansion. From a long-term perspective, the current index value of 93.1 was nearly equal to the average of 92.9 from 2000-2025.

A drop in assessments of the present situation led the decline in May, with this component falling 2.6%. The expectations index improved slightly, increasing 1.4%. This pattern matches the usual cyclical shifts, as the index for the present situation shows wide swings between peaks and troughs. Usually, however, the pronounced declines do not occur until the economy has entered a recession. The change in the past year or so has been large for an economy still in a business expansion.

The uncomfortable inflation setting has most likely influenced the views of consumers, which is evident in the inflation expectations question in the survey. The median view on inflation 12 months hence totaled 5.2% in May, down 0.1 percentage point from April, but well above readings near 4% in 2024 and in the calmer environment before the pandemic. Inflation concerns were more intense last year when tariffs were in the news (median inflation expectation of 5.9% in April 2025), but 5.2% is still hefty.

The labor market does not have the vigor it did in 2024 and early 2025, and that change has probably influenced assessments of the present situation. However, individuals still have a slightly favorable view of the job market. The share of respondents viewing jobs as plentiful totaled 25.5% in May, while 18.6% viewed jobs as hard to get. The differential of 6.9 percentage points, like the present-situation index, is low for an expanding economy, but it is far above readings seen in past recessions.

The results from the Conference Board survey of consumers differ markedly from those of the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. The Michigan results show consumer sentiment at a record low, while the Conference Board index essentially matches its long-run average. The difference most likely reflects the nature of the questions in the surveys. The Conference Board focuses on business and employment conditions, while Michigan emphasizes personal finances. The focus on finances, along with questions on inflation, probably picks up concerns about affordability.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Assessments of the present situation slipped, but views were still above long-run norms.
- Expectations improved slightly in April, but they are still below the long-run average.

Consumer Confidence: Slightly Lower in May

Winnie Tapasanun

- CFNAI +0.14 in April, highest since March ’25; -0.15 in March.
- Two of four CFNAI components up m/m; two make positive contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 edges up to +0.03, third straight positive reading; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index rises to +0.06, highest since Oct. ’22.

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