Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Michael J. Moran

260605A.jpg

260605B.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls rose 172k in May, noticeably stronger than the expectation of 92k shown in the Action Economics survey. Moreover, results for the prior two months combined were revised higher by 93k. The gain in May does not appear to be an isolated event, as payrolls have now posted firm showings for three consecutive months (average advance of 188k). This performance represents a marked improvement from late 2025, when payrolls were showing essentially no net gain.

A good portion of the job growth in May occurred in the local government sector (55k), but the health care and leisure & hospitality sectors also were strong. The construction and manufacturing industries (highly cyclical areas) were both in the plus column. Soft spots were limited, with only the financial services sector showing notable job cuts (-22k).

The improvement in the labor market also was evident in the payroll diffusion index. This measure shows the share of industries expanding payrolls plus one-half the share holding payrolls steady; a reading of 50 separates net expansion from contraction. This index was in sub-50 territory during much of 2024–25, but it moved into 50+ territory in March and climbed a bit higher in April and May (53.8 in May).

The unemployment rate was reported as steady at 4.3%, but a more precise calculation shows a slight improvement (4.296% versus 4.337% in April). Moreover, the dip was meaningful, as it was driven by employment growth as measured by the household survey (149k) that exceeded the increase in the size of the labor force (83k). The broad unemployment rate (the so-called U-6 measure) fell 0.1 percentage point to 8.1%. Both additional components of the broad unemployment rate contributed to the improvement (the number of individuals working part time involuntarily and the number of individuals who would like a job but are not actively searching).

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in May, a touch firmer than readings of 0.2% in the prior two months. Although earnings posted a solid advance in May, the increase was lighter than the 0.4% gain in May of last year, and thus the year-over-year change eased to 3.4% from 3.6% in April. Year-over-year changes in average hourly earnings had been larger than those in the consumer price index, indicating that many workers were registering gains in purchasing power. However, with the pickup in inflation, individuals fell behind in April, and the CPI for May (to be published on June 10) could show additional slippage in purchasing power.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260605C.jpg

260605D.jpg

- Nonfarm payrolls post their third consecutive firm advance.
- Unemployment showed marginal improvement.

May Employment Report: Revival in the Labor Market

Robert Brusca

260605E.jpg

GDP growth in the European Monetary Union backtracked in the first quarter, falling by 0.9% at an annual rate after rising by 0.7% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2025. The year-over-year growth rate from the monetary union also slowed sharply to 0.3%. The small positive gain in Q1 2026 comes after gains of over 1% in year-over-year calculations since the third quarter of 2024. The queue ranking of the year-on-year GDP growth rate, on data back to 1997, places the Q1 GDP result in its 21st percentile—roughly a lower one-fifth ranking.

Among the 14 EMU member reporters of GDP data in the table, five countries experienced quarter-to-quarter declines in GDP in Q1 2026: France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, and Austria. Ireland has some peculiar accounting issues because a number of multinational companies are headquartered there for tax reasons; this produced a decline in GDP at a 40% annual rate to dominate these results. And the sharp Irish decline in GDP has an outsized impact on the European Monetary Union GDP report itself. In contrast, among the individual reporting members, the median change in GDP in the first quarter was a 0.2% increase at an annual rate; both Portugal and the Netherlands experienced GDP increases of that magnitude.

In addition to that, the fourth quarter of 2025 showed decelerations in GDP for six of these reporting monetary union members; however, GDP declined in only two of these members in the fourth quarter.

Year-over-year data show GDP growth rates in the first quarter declining broadly in 11 of the 14 reporting members in this table. That compares to a slowdown reported by six member countries in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The four largest monetary union members experienced a slowdown in GDP, with growth at 1% in the first quarter compared to 1.3% in the fourth quarter; that 1% growth rate is the same as in the third quarter of 2025. The rest of the monetary union saw a sharp decline as GDP contracted at a 5.7% annual rate, with the Irish data playing a big role in that for the rest of the monetary union. For the four largest EMU economies, GDP advanced by 0.9% in Q1 2026 on a year-over-year basis. Year-over-year changes show relatively steady growth in the four largest monetary union economies, with growth rates of 1% or 0.9% in each of the last four quarters, while the rest of the monetary union shows much stronger growth rates over the last four quarters, but for that group, growth rates have been generally decelerating. That process culminates in a decline of 1.2% for year-over-year GDP growth in Q1 2026 for the rest of the EMU.

Over these last four quarters when the rest of the monetary union growth rates—apart from the four largest economies—showed steady slippage, Switzerland also showed a steady deceleration in GDP growth; so has the United Kingdom. Japan also has weakening growth over these last four quarters. However, the U.S. does not fall into that pattern, having maintained steady growth and then experienced a pickup in growth to 2.6% year-over-year in Q1 2026.

**Few show above-median growth**
Among the countries in the table, very few have GDP growth rates year-over-year that are above their medians on performance back to 1997. However, countries with queue standing above their 50th percentile for growth rates reflect that phenomenon; those countries are the U.S., Spain, Portugal, Italy, Luxembourg, Greece, and Denmark. Belgium, Ireland, Cyprus, and Switzerland have growth rates ranked below the 20th percentile in the queue ranking system. The median and year-over-year growth rate in the monetary union has a 30.4 percentile ranking, similar to Japan with a 36.4 percentile ranking for its year-over-year GDP. Growth metrics are showing some struggle, and the combined weight of the ongoing Ukraine war and the new effect of the Middles East conflict take their tolls.

260605.jpg

Europe

EMU GDP Contracts; Year-on-Year Growth Slows Sharply

Andrew Cates

**More Hawkish Central Banks**
One of the most important developments in recent months has been the steady shift in expectations surrounding monetary policy. Earlier this year, investors were largely focused on the prospect of widespread rate cuts as growth slowed and inflation appeared to be moving back towards target. Today, the narrative has changed materially. According to the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey, economists now expect policy rates to rise modestly over the next twelve months in Japan, Canada, the euro area and Australia. Only the UK and US are still expected to see rate reductions and even these are relatively modest compared with expectations earlier in the year. Perhaps more interesting is the growing divergence between economists and financial markets. While the Blue Chip panel continues to anticipate small reductions in policy rates in both the UK and US, market pricing has increasingly shifted towards the possibility of modest tightening instead. Stronger economic activity, firmer labour markets (in the US) and renewed inflation concerns have all contributed to this reassessment. The result is a global interest rate environment that increasingly looks "higher for longer" rather than one characterised by an aggressive easing cycle.

260604Z1.jpg

**US Labour Demand Remains Surprisingly Resilient**
As noted, part of the reason markets have become less convinced about future rate cuts is that the US labour market continues to show surprising resilience. Job opening rates have actually risen over recent months, suggesting that labour demand may be reaccelerating despite growing discussion about AI-related job displacement. On that last note, the sectoral detail is particularly revealing. Professional and business services recorded the largest increase in job openings over the past three months, significantly outperforming most other sectors. This is noteworthy because professional services are frequently cited as one of the areas most vulnerable to disruption from generative AI. Rather than reducing hiring demand, however, AI investment may currently be creating additional demand for highly skilled workers involved in software development, consulting, implementation and digital transformation.

260604Z2.jpg

**Middle East Tensions Continue to Generate Inflation Risks**
A second factor contributing to higher bond yields and reduced expectations of monetary easing is the persistence of supply-side inflation pressures. The latest global PMI surveys show that manufacturing output prices are climbing more sharply while supplier delivery times have lengthened compared with earlier in the year. Much of this appears linked to ongoing instability in the Middle East and the associated disruption to global shipping routes. Longer transit times, higher insurance costs and logistical bottlenecks have all contributed to upward pressure on manufacturing costs. There is, however, a modestly encouraging signal in the latest data. While delivery times remain relatively stretched, the most recent PMI survey does not indicate any significant further deterioration at the global level. This suggests that supply chain conditions may be stabilising rather than entering another period of sustained disruption.

260604Z3.jpg

**Manufacturing Is Benefiting from a More Benign Trade Environment**
While supply chain concerns remain important, there are also signs that some of the pressures facing global manufacturers may be easing. Effective tariff rates facing many major US trading partners have declined significantly over the past six months. The largest reductions have occurred across several key Asian economies including India, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and members of ASEAN. Europe and the UK have also experienced some easing, although to a lesser extent, while Australia stands out as one of the few countries facing an increase in effective tariff rates. This chart may help explain some of the resilience visible in recent manufacturing surveys around the world. While trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, the actual tariff burden facing many exporters has become less restrictive.

260604Z4.jpg

**South Korea Highlights the Scale of the AI Boom**
If there is one chart that captures the extraordinary scale of the AI investment cycle, it is South Korea's semiconductor export data. Semiconductor exports surged by an astonishing 169% year-on-year in May, one of the strongest readings on record and a powerful illustration of the strong demand currently flowing through the global technology supply chain. South Korea occupies a pivotal position within the global semiconductor ecosystem, making its export data one of the most useful real-time indicators of AI-related capital expenditure. The rapid buildout of data centres, cloud infrastructure and advanced computing capacity is generating unprecedented demand for memory chips, processors and other semiconductor components. While concerns about eventual overcapacity remain valid, the near-term momentum remains remarkable. The strength of South Korean exports suggests that AI-related investment spending is continuing to accelerate rather than slow, providing an increasingly important support to global growth and trade at a time when many other sectors are facing cyclical headwinds.

260604Z5.jpg

**Investors Are Following the AI Money**
Our final chart this week highlights how investors are positioning for these trends. Equity fund flows since the beginning of 2025 show a striking divergence across Asian markets. Taiwan and South Korea have attracted substantial inflows, while broader Asia ex-Japan regional funds and India have experienced net outflows. The explanation is relatively straightforward. Taiwan and South Korea sit at the centre of the global AI supply chain and are among the largest beneficiaries of surging semiconductor demand. At the same time, both economies have also benefited from the recent easing in tariff pressures highlighted in the previous chart. Investors have therefore become increasingly selective, directing capital towards those markets with the greatest exposure to AI-driven growth. The concentration of flows into a relatively narrow group of markets inevitably raises questions about valuations and positioning. Nevertheless, the broader message remains clear. The AI investment boom continues to dominate both trade flows and capital flows across Asia and remains one of the most powerful forces shaping the global economy today.

260604Z6.jpg

The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts point to a growing bias towards policy tightening rather than loosening in several major economies (chart 1), while rising US job opening rates suggest labour demand remains firmer than expected (chart 2). At the same time, ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to generate supply-side inflation risks and lengthier delivery times (chart 3). There are, however, also reasons for optimism. Manufacturing activity appears to be finding some support from a reduction in effective tariff rates facing many major US trading partners (chart 4). More importantly, the AI investment boom continues to gather momentum. South Korea's semiconductor exports surged by an extraordinary 169% year-on-year in May, highlighting the strength of global demand for AI-related hardware (chart 5). Unsurprisingly, investors continue to direct capital towards those markets most exposed to these trends, with Taiwan and South Korea attracting substantial equity inflows (chart 6). The bottom line is that inflation concerns and higher-for-longer interest rates remain important risks, but they are increasingly being offset, for now, by a combination of improving economic conditions and one of the strongest technology-driven investment cycles in modern history.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0mQUJnpcffhlDULAEZJIFP?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Inflation Fears, AI Cheers

Sandy Batten

260604N4.jpg

260604O4.jpg

Growth of nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) was revised down more than expected in Q1 to 0.3% q/q saar from 0.8% previously and 1.6% in Q4. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.7% quarterly increase in productivity. Compared to a year ago, productivity rose 2.8% y/y in Q1 (revised down from 2.9% previously), up from 2.5% in Q4. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.6% annual rate, likely a reflection of AI and other technology advances. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Growth in nonfarm business output (not quite the same as real GDP) was revised down to 1.0% q/q saar in Q1 from 1.5% in the previous estimate. This was in line with the previously announced downward revision in Q1 real GDP growth to 1.6% from 2.0% in the first estimate. Growth in hours worked was not revised at 0.7%. However, compensation growth was revised down markedly in both Q1 and last year’s Q4. For Q1, compensation growth was revised down to 2.1% from 3.1% in the first estimate. The revision for Q4 was even larger with compensation growth revised to 3.7% from 6.3% previously. These revisions in compensation led to similarly large downward revisions to growth of unit labor costs. Unit labor costs rose 1.8% in Q1 versus 2.3% in the first estimate and 2.1% in Q4 versus 4.6% in the previous estimate. Accordingly, the annual rate of growth of unit labor costs slowed to 0.5% y/y in Q1, the slowest annual pace since Q3 2019 and generally supports what former Fed Chair Powell has noted several times: that the labor market is not a source of the recent rise in US inflation.

Manufacturing productivity growth in Q1 was also revised down, to 3.2% q/q saar from 3.6% in the first estimate. However, in contrast to the revision to nonfarm productivity, the downward revision to manufacturing productivity was due to an upward revision in hours worked with no revision to manufacturing output (up 3.3% in both estimates). Hours worked were revised to unchanged from a 0.4% decline in the first estimate. Growth in manufacturing compensation was also revised down to 5.5% from 6.1%. The larger downward revision to compensation than to productivity resulted in the growth in manufacturing unit labor cost being revised down to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. This was down sharply from 8.8% unit labor cost growth reported for Q4, revised down 9.8%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260604P4.jpg

260604Q4.jpg

- Q1 output per hour growth was revised down to 0.3% q/q saar in the second estimate from 0.8% in the first, reflecting a downward revision to output.
- However, longer-term productivity growth remained solidly well above trend.
- Compensation growth was revised down meaningfully, resulting in a downward revision to unit labor cost growth to 1.8% from 2.3% previously.

U.S. Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Cost Growth Revised Down

260604A1.jpg

260604B1.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 13,000 to 225,000 in the week ending May 30 from a downwardly revised 212,000 in the prior week (previously 215,000). This was the highest weekly reading since the week ending February 7. The four-week average jumped to 214,750 in the week of May 30 from 208,250 in the previous week. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 215,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—fell by 8,000 to 1.777 million in the week ending May 23 from a downwardly revised 1.785 million in the prior week (previously 1.786 million). The four-week average edged up to 1.777 million from 1.773 million. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% for the fourth consecutive week. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending May 16, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.08%), Washington (2.06%), Massachusetts (1.92%) and California (1.89%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Louisiana (0.33%), Florida (0.34%), Alabama (0.38%) and North Carolina (0.39%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.57%), Illinois (1.47%), Pennsylvania (1.27%), and Texas (1.06%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260604C1.jpg

260604D1.jpg

- Initial claims rose more than expected to 225k in the week ending May 30.
- This is the largest weekly claims figure since February 7.
- However, continuing claims continued to trend down, falling to 1.777 million in the week ending May 23 from 1.785 million in the previous week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jumped in Latest Week

260604E.jpg

Retail sales in the euro area declined in volume terms in April, falling 0.4% on the month after rising 0.8% in March and falling 0.5% in February. Food and beverage volume recovered to post an expansion after two monthly declines.

**Sales trends slip**: However, the headline for retail volume growth shows that there has been steady slippage, with growth over 12 months weaker than it was over the previous 12 months, growth over six months at a weaker pace than it was over 12 months, and growth over three months posting an outright decline compared to a gain over six months. The highlighted red background in the table shows this string of continuous slowing that marks decelerating retail spending in the euro area as of April. In the quarter to date, retail sales volumes are declining at a 0.2% annual rate—a very slight contraction but a net reduction in sales volume, nonetheless, to start the second quarter.

**Contrarian strength in vehicle demand**: Motor vehicle registrations pulled back in April after some strong gains in earlier months. Motor vehicle registrations are accelerating as the growth rate rises from 12 months to six months to three months; growth actually explodes over three months, rising at a 52.4% annualized rate. With this strength, naturally, motor vehicle registrations are logging strong growth at the beginning of this new quarter, rising at a 33.6% annual rate.

Despite the strength in motor vehicle registrations, registrations are still a lot lower in comparison to January 2020. They have averaged a decline of 1.2% per year over this period. Since January 2020, just before COVID struck, retail sales in the euro area have risen by 6.7%, implying an average annual growth rate of 1% per year. This has generally been a lethargic period for retail sales.

**Sales trends by country**
Looking at the individual countries in the table, we chronicle developments for EMU members Germany and the Netherlands, EU member Denmark, and Northern European countries Norway and Sweden, plus former EU member the United Kingdom. We see that all of these countries have had a long period of weak growth going back to January 2020. Among these countries, only Denmark and the Netherlands have averaged retail volume growth of over 1% for this date-span; Denmark averages 1.5% per year, and the Netherlands averages 1.3%. Sweden and Norway’s trends average 0.8% and 0.7% growth per year back to January 2020. Germany posted a compounded annual increase of only 0.6% annually, while in the U.K., in the wake of the problems that COVID and Brexit created, saw its retail sales volumes decline annually by 0.4%, marking a 2.2 percentage point decline in retail sales since January 2020. It has been a weak environment for retailing.

**Recent sales performance**: Up-to-date observations for April show declines in retail sales volume in Germany, Denmark, and the U.K., with flat sales in Sweden. Norway logs an increase of 0.3% month-to-month, and the Netherlands logs an increase of 1.6% month-to-month. The sequential data, looking at sales over 12 months to six months to three months, largely points to a continuation of this period of lethargic sales. Germany, the U.K., and Norway each are posting a sequential deceleration, as the rate of sales slows over progressively shorter time periods. Denmark and the Netherlands have somewhat erratic performance on retail sales, with no clear trends. Sweden stands alone as the only country with retail sales clearly accelerating, rising 4.2% at an annual rate over 12 months, at a 4.4% annual rate over six months, and at a 5.8% annual rate over three months.

**Challenging outlook**
The retail environment remains challenging in Europe. Oil prices are rising; the European Central Bank is expected to take steps to deal with excessive inflation and rising oil prices with at least one rate hike. The war in Ukraine remains hot; the war in the Middle East may be cooling down, but the Strait of Hormuz is still not open for business. The global economy continues to face significant challenges.

260604.jpg

Retail Sales in Europe Continue to Struggle

260603A.jpg

260603B.jpg

New orders for manufactured goods jumped 4.8 percent in April, led by a surge of 8.0% in the durable-goods sector and reinforced by an advance of 1.4% in orders for nondurable goods.

The increase in orders for durable goods was heavily influenced by the volatile aircraft category, which posted a striking advance of 113.3%. However, the jump did little to influence the underlying trend, as it followed a cumulative decline of 51.6% over the prior four months. Excluding aircraft orders, the durable component rose 0.9%, reinforcing a strong upward trend that began late last year (chart, above right). Bookings for computers, despite a dip in April, have been a force behind the advance excluding aircraft, but other areas have been firm as well (machinery, primary metals, fabricated metals). The results in the durable sector were in line with the preliminary estimate released last week, which showed an increase of 7.9% overall and 0.8% ex-aircraft.

The strong performance in new orders for durable goods has generated an upward trend in unfilled orders. Backlogs started to move higher in the second half of last year, and they added to that trend with an increase of 0.6% in April (chart, lower left).

The increase of 1.4% in the nondurable sector was led by a jump of 4.0% in the petroleum and coal category, which followed an average increase of 6.8% in the prior three months. These increases, of course, primarily reflected price changes rather than shifts in real activity. However, bookings outside of petroleum and coal have been firm on balance, increasing 0.8% in April after advances of 0.6% and 0.7% in the prior two months (chart, lower right). Nondurable orders also rose in the four months before this recent burst, but the changes were small. Orders for nondurable goods are typically shipped upon arrival, and thus backlogs are not tracked, but the recent flow of bookings certainly represents a solid trend.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260603C.jpg

260603D.jpg

- Aircraft bookings fueled durable bookings in April, accenting solid gains in prior months.
- Petroleum prices inflated nondurable orders in April, but orders ex-petrol advanced as well.

Factory Orders: Lots of Noise, but Also Firm Trends in Recent Months

Winnie Tapasanun

260603J23.jpg

260603K23.jpg

U.S. nonfarm private sector payrolls jumped a more-than-expected 122,000 (0.5% y/y) in May—the largest of 11 straight m/m gains and the strongest since January 2025—after rises of 105,000 in April (+109,000 initially) and 61,000 in March (unrevised), according to the ADP National Employment Report. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 110,000 May increase. The three-month average change rose to 96,000 in May, the highest since February 2025, from 77,000 in April and 46,000 in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 67,000 (0.9% y/y) in May, the 11th consecutive m/m rise, after a 63,000 gain in April (+65,000 initially), with employment in very small firms (1-19 employees) up 49,000 and employment in small firms (20-49 employees) up 18,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) advanced 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in May following a 2,000 increase in April (unrevised) and two successive m/m declines. Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 40,000 (1.6% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 42,000 April rebound (unrevised).

Service-producing jobs jumped 114,000 (0.7% y/y) in May, the 12th straight m/m gain, on top of a 91,000 rise in April (+94,000 initially). May’s gain was led by education & health services (+57,000), followed by trade, transportation & utilities (+36,000), professional & business services (+11,000), leisure & hospitality (+8,000), financial activities (+7,000), and other services (+4,000). In contrast, employment fell m/m in information (-9,000) in May, the only declining category, following three consecutive m/m increases.

Goods-producing employment increased 8,000 (-0.4% y/y) in May, the smallest of four straight m/m gains, following a 14,000 rise in April (+15,000 initially). May’s increase was led by construction (+8,000) and manufacturing (+3,000, the first m/m increase since March 2024), while natural resources & mining (-3,000) fell m/m for the first time since January.

By region, nonfarm private payroll employment rose m/m across all major regions in May, reflecting m/m gains in the West (+45,000; +1.0% y/y), Northeast (+35,000; +0.4% y/y), South (+23,000; +0.5% y/y), and Midwest (+21,000; +0.2% y/y).

Wage growth for job changers eased to 6.5% y/y in May from 6.6% in April and March, remaining well below a high of 16.1% in April 2022. Wage growth for job stayers held steady at 4.4% y/y for the second consecutive month in May, holding in a narrow 4.4%-4.5% range since April 2025. Pay growth was unchanged across major industries, including financial activities (5.1% y/y), manufacturing (4.8% y/y), construction (4.5% y/y), leisure & hospitality (4.5% y/y), trade, transportation & utilities (4.4% y/y), education & health services (4.2% y/y), other services (4.1% y/y), and professional & business services (4.1% y/y), while pay growth in natural resources & mining dipped to 4.2% in May from 4.3% in April.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

260603L23.jpg

260603M23.jpg

- Private payrolls +122K in May, largest of 11 straight m/m gains, indicating sustained labor-market momentum.
- Broad-based hiring across company sizes, driven by small businesses (+67K).
- Service-sector jobs up (+114K), led by education & health svs. (+57K) and trade, transp. & utilities (+36K), partly offset by information (-9K).
- Goods-producing jobs up (+8K), driven by construction (+8K).
- Wage growth down marginally y/y for job changers (6.5%) but steady for job stayers (4.4%).

U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth in May Strongest Since Jan. ’25

large_260610L.jpg

medium_260610L.jpg

small_260610L.jpg

thumbnail_260610L.jpg

260610L.jpg

large_260610M.jpg

medium_260610M.jpg

small_260610M.jpg

thumbnail_260610M.jpg

260610M.jpg

The headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May, matching expectations and slowing from increases of 0.9% and 0.6% in March and April, respectively. Although the month-to-month increase slowed in May, it still pulled the year-over-year change higher, now at 4.2% versus 3.8% in April. The year-over-year change totaled 2.4% in both January and February, before the conflict in the Middle East became a factor in the inflation setting.

With the Middle East situation still unsettled, energy prices remained problematic, increasing 3.9% in May, slower than the blistering advance of 10.9% in March, but a touch firmer than the increase in April. Gasoline prices have been the driving force behind the increase in the energy component of the CPI. However, reported gasoline prices fell slightly in the first week of June. Perhaps next month’s report will bring some relief on the energy front.

Interestingly, energy pressure has been concentrated in petroleum-based products (fuel oil and gasoline). Charges for electricity have stirred a bit in the past three months, but the average increase of 1.2% is well shy of price changes in oil-related products. The price of natural gas services has declined for three consecutive months (average drop of 0.5%), which has left a year-over-year change of 3.0%.

Food prices posted a worrying increase in April (0.5%), but they were contained in May, rising 0.2%. Prices for food at home (i.e., grocery store prices), which are important for households facing affordability issues, rose less than 0.1%, although the year-over-year change of 2.7% will still pose a challenge for many. Prices for food away from home (i.e., prices at restaurants and bars) rose 0.3% in May, which left a year-over-year advance of 3.5%.

The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2%, less than the expected increase of 0.3% and a reading in the middle of the recent range. A jump of 0.4% in the prior month raised the possibility that elevated energy prices might be feeding through to prices in other sectors. However, the subdued advance in May hints at little pass-through thus far. Airfares also provide encouragement on this issue. Airline tickets are highly sensitive to fuel charges, but fare increases in recent months have not shown a noticeable acceleration. The average increase of 2.7% in airline tickets, although hardly slow, was slower than the jump of 3.9% in the first two months of the year, before the surge in energy prices. Airfares tend to move in waves, showing periods of brisk increases followed by months of discounts.

Within the core component, goods prices were tame, posting a decline of 0.1%. Prices of medical goods contributed importantly to the soft reading, with a drop of 0.7%, marking the third consecutive decline after a soft trend in the year before this softness. The year-over-year change in medica-care goods totaled -1.8%. Prices of new motor vehicles fell 0.3% after a drop of 0.2% in the prior month, leaving a year-over-year change of only 0.5%. 

Prices of core services rose 0.3% in May. The reading was not troubling when viewed in isolation, but it followed a jump of 0.5% in April and left the year-over-year increase at 3.4%, up from an average of 3.0% in the first three months of the year. Rent of primary residence has stirred in the past two months, increasing 0.5% in March and 0.4% in May, noticeably faster than the averages of 0.2% in the first three months of the year and in all of 2025. Not long ago, rents were an important factor behind elevated inflation readings. Results in April and May suggests that close monitoring is warranted.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_260610N.jpg

medium_260610N.jpg

small_260610N.jpg

thumbnail_260610N.jpg

260610N.jpg

large_260610O.jpg

medium_260610O.jpg

small_260610O.jpg

thumbnail_260610O.jpg

260610O.jpg

- Gasoline prices drove the energy component higher again, but June might bring some relief.
- Little apparent pass through from energy to core.

May CPI: Another Jump in Energy Prices; Core Contained

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

May CPI: Another Jump in Energy Prices; Core Contained

Recent Commentaries

U.S. Mortgage Applications Jumped in the June 5 Week

U.S. Existing Home Sales Reach a Five-Month High in May, Third M/M Gain in Four Months

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in April

German IP Rebounds in April

German Orders Drop, But Trend Offers Hope

Economic Letter from Asia: Risk Reversal

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints