Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

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Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

Robert Brusca

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In the post-COVID cycle, inflation in Italy hit its low point early in 2023 and then again late in 2024. However, for the other large monetary union economies, France, for example, inflation hit its low point early in 2026 at a pace of about 1.1%. Germany, the traditional low-inflation country in the monetary union, has had more difficult times with inflation post-COVID. For this reason, the low point for German inflation came early in 2026 (and in mid-2025 at 1.9%). For France and Italy, headline inflation began escalating very early in 2026. For Germany, the escalation was a little later, and the spiky part of inflation was blunted on the early side; inflation has actually tipped slightly lower now, in May. However, despite these differences in timing, the overpowering sense is that inflation in the large countries has turned higher early in the year, and the European Central Bank will have some decisions to make.

**Month-to-month price changes**
In May, inflation decelerated in Germany, with the month-to-month observation going unchanged. Headline prices in Spain rose by 0.2%, in France by 0.3%, and in Italy by 0.4%. German prices excluding energy have been making steady gains for the last several months, rising by 0.2% in May; Italian core prices rose by 0.4% after being flat in April and declining sharply in March; in Spain, the core CPI rose by 0.2% for the second month in a row.

The monthly statistics on inflation from the headlines and core rates for these countries are not off-the-charts or particularly troublesome. However, when put in context in terms of 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month inflation rates, the headlines and the cores trace more disturbing patterns.

**Sequential trends in the HICPs**
Headline inflation for these countries shows over three months that inflation has a rate excessive relative to the ECB's target for the European Monetary Union as a whole. There are no country-by-country targets from the ECB, only an objective for the union-wide result. German inflation over three months is the weakest, as it logs a 4% annual rate. Italian inflation is the strongest, rising at an 8.6% annual rate. Over six months, inflation is excessive in all four of these countries. The weakest gain is in Germany at 2.4% at an annual rate; the strongest is in Italy at a 5.9% annual rate. Over 12 months, inflation is also excessive across the board relative to the ECB's overall monetary union target of 2%. The weakest gain in 12-month inflation is Germany at 2.6%, while the strongest is Spain at 3.6%. Additionally, inflation is accelerating from 12-months to six-months to three-months in both France and Italy. Although inflation is not accelerating in that three-period sequence for Germany and Spain, it is not far from doing so. All of these are going to be uncomfortable metrics for the European Central Bank to navigate. These are the headline rates for the large EMU countries, and they are clearly being pushed up by energy prices on the constriction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

**Core and ex-energy inflation trends**
Three of the four largest EMU economies give us either core inflation or inflation excluding energy metrics. On that basis, two of three economies, Germany and Spain, show excessive inflation over three months annualized, at 2.7% for Germany and 3.4%, for Spain. We compare them to the target set by the ECB for the European Union overall. Italy is the exception, with core inflation falling 0.4% at an annual rate over three months. Over six months, Germany, Italy, and Spain all have core inflation rates at or above 2%. Italy's rate comes in at 2%, Germany's ex-energy rate is at 2.2% annualized, while Spain’s CPI core checks in at 3% inflation. Over 12 months, inflation in Germany excluding energy is 2.3%, in Spain the CPI core runs 2.9%, while in Italy, inflation is still restrained for the core measure at a 1.8% annual rate.

Headline inflation and rising energy prices clearly are generating pressures such that even the core conditions aren't looking good. Core inflation rates above 3%, as we see in Spain across nearly all three timelines, are disturbing to the monetary authority. German inflation is moderate at 2.2% over six months and 2.3% over 12 months, but then it rises to a more disturbing 2.7% over three months. So far, Italian inflation is not an issue, at 1.8% over 12 months, 2% over six months, and even declining at a 0.4% annual rate over three months.

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**Summing up**
The ECB, of course, makes policy for the whole of the area, so these individual country results are inputs that the ECB will look at, but it is much more concerned with what happens to inflation for the euro area as a whole. We can see from these large countries that there is a considerable amount of inflation percolating and that the energy price increases have not been confined to impacting the headline. Also, since the ECB has been overshooting its inflation target, it has to be careful about cutting any slack for dealing with inflation when it becomes excessive. Inflation has started to accelerate in France and in Italy, at least at the headline level; the core shows accelerating inflation only for Spain. These are conditions the ECB is going to have to be sensitive to.

EMU Early Inflation Readings Rise in Large Countries

Andrew Cates

**Europe’s vulnerability to high energy prices**
The latest flash PMI data continue to highlight a highly uneven global economy. India remains exceptionally strong, while the US and Japan continue to outperform most other advanced economies. By contrast, much of Europe remains considerably weaker, with France particularly soft and both Germany and the broader euro area struggling. In many respects, this divergence increasingly reflects Europe’s heightened sensitivity to elevated energy prices and, probably, its weaker exposure to the global AI investment boom currently supporting activity elsewhere. Europe remains far more vulnerable to higher imported energy costs, while the US and parts of Asia continue benefiting from stronger technology investment cycles, semiconductor demand and AI-related infrastructure spending.

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**Higher energy prices continue to squeeze US consumers**
That said, rising gasoline prices in the US are clearly weighing on household sentiment. Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan survey, has fallen sharply even as labour markets remain relatively resilient, underscoring how sensitive households might be to renewed energy-related inflation fears. Yet this also reinforces an important counterpoint to the current inflation narrative. Unlike during the immediate post-pandemic period — when households were benefiting from extraordinary fiscal transfers, ultra-loose monetary policy and strong nominal income growth — consumers today appear more cautious and demand conditions far less exuberant.

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**Not yet another pandemic-era liquidity shock**
Indeed, and as noted above, one of the most important differences between today’s inflation fears and the post-pandemic inflation surge concerns the underlying monetary backdrop. During the Covid pandemic, central banks massively expanded their balance sheets while governments simultaneously delivered extraordinary fiscal stimulus. That combination arguably helped fuel excess liquidity, surging demand and ultimately broad-based inflationary pressures. Today, however, the picture looks fundamentally different. Central bank balance sheets across the US, euro area and Japan are no longer expanding at anything like the pace seen during the pandemic period, with reduced asset purchases contributing to a much less supportive global liquidity backdrop.The global economy is therefore entering this latest energy shock against a backdrop of greater monetary restraint, or, at the least, far less extreme monetary accommodation.

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**Broad money supply growth is not (yet) amplifying inflation concerns**
The contrast becomes even more striking when looking at broad money growth. Broad money growth across the major economies has slowed dramatically from the extraordinary rates seen during the pandemic period. In both the US and euro area, monetary growth remains subdued, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a much less supportive liquidity backdrop. This matters because periods of sustained inflation persistence have historically been associated not simply with commodity price spikes, but with strong underlying money and credit growth supporting broader demand conditions. Today’s monetary backdrop looks – for the time being - far less consistent with the kind of prolonged inflation spiral feared by many investors.

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**AI investment is becoming a full-scale infrastructure cycle**
At the same time, however, the global growth outlook is not being shaped solely by cyclical weakness and tighter monetary conditions. There remains one extraordinarily important countervailing force: the ongoing AI infrastructure boom. The scale of investment associated with artificial intelligence increasingly resembles a modern industrial boom rather than a conventional software cycle. Real US private investment in data centres has surged dramatically as hyperscalers race to build computational capacity, cloud infrastructure and AI training systems. Yet perhaps equally striking is the parallel surge in water supply construction spending. One of the great misconceptions surrounding AI is that it somehow belongs to a virtual economy detached from physical resource constraints. In reality, AI infrastructure is extraordinarily resource intensive, requiring vast quantities of electricity, cooling systems, water infrastructure and industrial-scale construction. Increasingly, the AI boom is colliding directly with broader questions surrounding energy systems, utility capacity and physical infrastructure constraints.

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**The AI cycle continues to drive global trade and investment**
Finally, the implications of this infrastructure boom are increasingly becoming visible globally through the semiconductor supply chain. South Korea’s semiconductor sector continues to provide one of the clearest real-time indicators of the scale and intensity of AI-related investment demand. Semiconductor export growth has accelerated sharply, while producer prices for semiconductors have also surged, reflecting exceptionally strong global demand for advanced chips, memory systems and computational infrastructure. In many respects, this remains the key counterweight supporting global equity markets and broader investor optimism despite ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns. Even as parts of the global economy slow under the weight of higher energy prices, the AI-driven capex cycle continues to fuel trade, infrastructure spending and corporate earnings. Increasingly, markets appear willing to tolerate elevated bond yields, geopolitical tensions and energy volatility because investors remain convinced that AI-related productivity gains and infrastructure investment could ultimately transform the medium-term growth outlook. The result is a global economy increasingly caught between two competing forces: old-world supply-side inflation risks and one of the largest technology-driven investment booms in modern history.

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The global macro backdrop remains dominated by instability in the Middle East and the lingering inflation concerns associated with elevated energy prices. Yet recent days have at least offered some tentative relief. Oil prices have softened amid heightened hopes that negotiations between the US and Iran could eventually ease tensions and help stabilise energy markets, even if the broader geopolitical situation remains fragile and key shipping routes continue to face disruption. Against this backdrop, the latest survey data continue to highlight an uneven global economy, with Europe looking particularly vulnerable given its greater sensitivity to higher energy costs and its weaker links to the global AI investment boom (chart 1). At the same time, rising gasoline prices continue to weigh heavily on US household confidence (the Michigan measure), raising concerns about the resilience of consumer demand (chart 2). An important question confronting markets in the meantime is whether inflation fears are now becoming overstated. Unlike during the post-pandemic inflation shock, central bank balance sheets are now shrinking rather than expanding aggressively, while money supply growth remains relatively weak across many major economies (charts 3 and 4). Meanwhile, the extraordinary boom in AI-related infrastructure spending — spanning data centres, utilities, water systems and semiconductors — continues to provide a major offset to broader macroeconomic weakness and remains a key pillar supporting global equity markets despite elevated geopolitical and inflation concerns (charts 5 and 6).

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Charts of the Week: The AI Boom Meets Inflation Angst

Winnie Tapasanun

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New single-family home sales fell 6.2% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 units in April—below expectations—following a downwardly revised 3.4% increase to 663,000 in March (initially +7.4%, 682,000) and an upwardly revised 11.3% gain to 641,000 in February (previously +8.9%, 635,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected April sales of 665,000. April marked the first m/m fall in three months and the lowest level since January, while remaining 16.3% above the July 2022 low of 535,000. The April decline coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.33%, the highest since September 2025, from 6.18% in March, according to Freddie Mac. (**Note**: With the April 2026 release, the Census Bureau revised seasonal factors to the New Residential Sales series. SA data from January 2021 through March 2026 were revised; NSA data were not.)

Regionally, April new home sales declined m/m and y/y in all major regions except the West. Sales in the Midwest plunged 25.0% (-21.4% y/y) to 66,000 in April, the first m/m fall in three months and the lowest level since March 2025, reversing a 6.0% rise to 88,000 in March. Sales in the Northeast dropped 12.9% (-12.9% y/y) to 27,000, the third m/m decline in four months, following a 72.2% March surge to 31,000. Sales in the South slid 9.8% (-14.7% y/y) to 370,000, the first m/m slide since January and a three-month low, after a 3.3% March increase to 410,000. In contrast, sales in the West jumped 18.7% (4.6% y/y) to 159,000, the highest level since December, following a 6.3% March decrease to 134,000. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 59.5% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home rose 8.0% (2.2% y/y) to $422,500 in April, the first m/m rise in four months and the highest level since December, after a 5.1% drop to $391,100 in March. The median sales price was 8.2% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home increased 0.7% (-1.1% y/y) to $508,800 following a 3.4% March decline to $505,200. The average price was 6.0% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rebounded 1.7% (-2.2% y/y) to 489,000 in April, the highest level since October 2025, after a 1.0% decline to 481,000 in March. The latest figure was 15.3% above a low of 424,000 in May 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.4 months in April, a three-month high, from 8.7 months in March. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.3 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 3.6 months in April, the highest since August 2021, from 3.5 months in March. The latest number was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales -6.2% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to 622,000 in Apr.; +3.4% m/m (+1.1% y/y) to 663,000 in Mar.
- Sales down m/m and y/y in the Midwest, Northeast, and South; up only in the West (+18.7% m/m, +4.6% y/y).
- Median sales price +8.0% m/m to $422,500, a 4-month high; avg. price +0.7% m/m to $508,800.
- Months' supply: 9.4 mths. in Apr., a 3-month high; 8.7 mths. in Mar.

U.S. New Home Sales Drop to a Three-Month Low in April

Michael J. Moran

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The price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in April, marking the third consecutive month of rapid inflation (following two months of uncomfortable readings before the recent burst). The latest increase left the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.8%. The energy component again led the advance, with a jump of 3.9% in the latest month after a surge of 11.6% in March. Food prices also misbehaved in April, increasing 0.5%. The shift in food prices might be viewed as random, as it followed a dip of 0.1% in March. Still, the year-over-year increase of 2.5% was the quickest since late 2023.

The core price index rose 0.2% in April, but it was not far from rounding up to 0.3% (0.239%). Also, the latest change followed increases of 0.3% or 0.4% in each of the preceding four months. All told, the year-over-year change in core prices totaled 3.3% in April, far above the desired pace of Federal Reserve officials.

Personal income showed no change in April, but the softness reflected random volatility in farm income (a decline of 54.8% from an elevated level in March, which was driven by government support payments). Excluding the farm component, personal income rose 0.2% in April. In most settings, an increase of 0.2% could be viewed as respectable, but with inflation stirring, the gain translated into a drop of 0.4% in real terms. This decline was not an isolated event, as real personal income has been essentially flat or down in six of the past seven months (chart, lower left).

Despite the contraction in real income, consumers have not retrenched in a meaningful way. After growing 2.1% over the four quarters of 2025, real personal consumption expenditures rose 1.4% (annual rate) in the first quarter, and real outlays inched up 0.1% month to month in April. Relative to average real outlays in Q1, the April increase puts consumers on track for a gain of 1.5% to 2.0% in Q2.

Without strong income support, recent spending by consumers has led to a marked decline in the personal saving rate (2.6% in April versus averages of 4.6% in 2025 and 5.4% in 2024; chart, lower right). Part of the resilience in consumer spending most likely reflects higher-than-normal tax refunds. Some of the tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Budget Act became effective last year, but withholding schedules were not adjusted until this year, resulting in hefty refunds this tax season. This influence will most likely fade as the year progresses. Another influence, though, might be longer lasting: the robust stock market has boosted the financial standing of many households, reducing the need to save and opening the door to more active spending.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Food and energy prices rose sharply in April; core inflation slowed slightly, although it remained uncomfortable.
- With inflation stirring, real personal income has been soft in recent months.
- Despite softness in real income, consumers have not retrenched.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in April: Consumers Soldier on Despite Inflation and Income Issues

Sandy Batten

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Real GDP growth was revised down to 1.6% q/q saar in the second estimate from 2.0% in the advance report. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a slight upward revision to 2.1%. There was little revision to the major components with almost all of the total revision accounted for by a larger decline in inventory investment than previously estimated, which lowered the inventory contribution to total GDP growth to 0.1%-point from 0.4%-point previously.

Growth of personal consumption expenditures was revised down slightly to 1.4% q/q saar from 1.6% previously. Nonresidential fixed investment growth was revised down to 10.1% from 10.4%, mostly reflecting slightly slower growth in spending on intellectual property products, while the decline in residential investment was revised to -6.2% from -8.0%. Government spending growth was unrevised at 4.4%. However, the Q1 rebound still fell well short of reversing the 5.6% quarterly plunge in government spending in Q4 that reflected the more than one-month shutdown of the federal government. Export growth was revised up marginally while import growth was revised slower marginally. The result was a slightly smaller trade deficit than previously estimated but the revision was too small to change the contribution to overall growth from net exports.

Private domestic demand growth (final sales to private domestic purchasers, a favored gauge of demand by the Federal Reserve) was revised down to 2.4% q/q saar from 2.5% in the advance report. However, this pace is still solid and meaningfully above the economy’s potential growth rate.

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This report contained the first look at Q1 corporate profits. Their growth slowed to 0.9% q/q not annualized, but this was on top of a 6.0% quarterly jump in Q4 2025 and a 4.5% quarterly rise in Q3. Profits of domestic industries climbed 2.7% q/q in Q1 following outsized increases of 4.0% in Q4 and 3.6% in Q3. Rest of world profits slumped in Q1, falling 9.8% q/q, but this was after a 20.2% surge in Q4 and a 10.7% jump in Q3. Strong profit growth continues to underpin solid gains in equity prices.

With the release of corporate profits for Q1, it was possible to construct gross domestic income. Total production in the economy can be calculated either by adding up the expenditures across the economy and adjusting for imports and changes in inventories or by summing up the income generated by production. The former is GDP; the latter is gross domestic income (GDI). GDI rose 0.9% q/q saar in Q1, somewhat slower than GDP. Over the past year, GDP has risen 2.6% y/y while GDI is up 2.2%.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down to 1.6% saar from 2.0% in the advance estimate.
- There was little revision to the major expenditure components with almost all of the total downward revision due to a larger decline in inventories than previously estimated.
- Domestic demand growth was revised down a tick but was still a solid, above-trend 2.4%.
- This report provided the first look at Q1 corporate profits. Profit growth slowed to 0.9% q/q not annualized but this was on top of a 10.7% jump in the previous two quarters.

U.S. Q1 2026 Real GDP Growth Revised Down; Corporate Profits Slowed

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 5,000 to 215,000 in the week ending May 23, from 210,000 in the week ending May 16, revised from 209,000. The four-week average rose to 209,000 in the May 23 week from 202,750 in the week ending May 16, revised marginally from 202,500. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 212,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 15,000 to 1.786 million in the week ending May 16, from 1.771 million in the week ending May 9, revised from 1.782 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.773 million in the May 16 week from 1.770 million, revised from 1.773 million in the May 9 week. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of May 16. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending May 9, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.10%) and Washington (2.09%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.32%), Alabama (0.37%), North Carolina (0.38%), Arkansas (0.39%), Tennessee (0.47%), Iowa and Kansas (both 0.47%), and Nebraska, North Dakota and Virginia (all 0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.97%), New York (1.60%), Illinois (1.46%), Pennsylvania (1.27%), and Texas (1.03%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 5,000 to 215,000 in the week ending May 23.
- Continuing claims rose by 15,000 to 1.786 million, but the downward trend in place since October 2025 remains in place.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of May 16.


U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in the Week of May 23

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The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows business optimism falling sharply in Q2 2026, joined by a drop in export optimism. Expectations for capital goods spending excluding buildings improved slightly on the quarter, with the index reading rising to -38 from -44. Expectations for capital spending excluding equipment fell significantly to -36 in the second quarter from -22 in the first quarter. The two capital spending measures each have rankings below the 20th percentile; for capital spending excluding buildings, the figure is extremely weak.

The number employed over the last three months shows a slight decline to -19 from -16; however looking ahead to the next three months, the decline repeats, falling to -26 from -18 in the first quarter. The rankings for these two metrics are both in the low 30th percentiles.

New order volume for three months ago and three months ahead remain weak, with the three-month ago reading stuck at -21 and the three-month-ahead reading falling from -12 in the first quarter to -31 in the second quarter. The rankings for these two metrics are each at the 15th percentile or lower.

The volume of domestic orders for three months ago edged slightly lower, to -25 from -23; however for three months ahead it weakens more sharply to -32 from -17. Both of these metrics have rankings at the 15th percentile or weaker.

The volume for foreign orders from three months ago improved to -4 from -12. The volume for three months ahead has weakened only slightly, from +1 in the first quarter to -2 in the second quarter. The three-month-ago reading has a 35th percentile ranking, while the three-month-ahead ranking is at its 47th percentile. The foreign sector appears to be carrying some stimulus to the U.K. economy.

The volume of output from three months ago was slightly weaker in the second quarter, while the volume of output for three months ahead is expected to weaken from a -14 reading in Q1 to -20 in Q2. Both metrics have a lower 10th percentile standing.

The average cost of output three months ago rose sharply to an index reading of in the second quarter 54 from 33 in the first quarter. Looking ahead to the next three months, another ratchet up is in progress, to a reading of 79 from 50 in the first quarter. These are suddenly extremely strong readings, with three-months-ago reading at a 78th percentile standing and the three-month-ahead reading at essentially a 90th percentile standing.

The average price for domestic orders three months ago has gone up from an index value of 2 in the first quarter to 17 in the second quarter, while the average price for domestic orders for three months ahead edged up to a reading of +32 from +29 in the first quarter. The three-month-ago reading has a 53rd percentile standing, while the three-month-ahead reading has an 89th percentile standing. Price expectations are hot.

The average price on foreign orders for three months ago rose from -4 in the first quarter to +15 in the second quarter, logging a 49th percentile standing, pretty close to its historic median. The average price for foreign output for three months ahead moved down to +19 from +23 in the first quarter and has a very strong 91.8 percentile standing. The Q/Q pressure eased a bit but remains intense.

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The survey also cites factors that are likely to be limiting to output in the three months ahead. The most significant item is a shortage of skilled labor; credit and finance conditions also rank high, and to a lesser extent, the availability of materials and components is a concern. Concerns about inadequate demand are below the median levels of those concerns registered through the history of the survey. Demand is not an issue.

On balance, there is a good deal of pessimism on the outlook, and it's not surprising given the global survey results we have seen from the PMI data and the conditions that exist in the Middle East, with the impeded functioning of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation in the U.K. remains high; it's just another factor that the economy will have to deal with as it tries to press ahead.

United Kingdom

U.K. CBI Industrial Quarterly Survey Weakens

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Mortgage applications dropped 8.5% w/w (+10.1% y/y) in the week ending May 22, after having declined 2.3% w/w (+18.9% y/y) in the week ending May 15, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.4% w/w (+4.7% y/y) in the latest week, after dropping 4.1% w/w (+8.0% y/y) in the May 15 week.  Applications for loan refinancing plunged 18.1% w/w (+18.9% y/y) in the May 22 week, following a small decline of 0.1% w/w (+34.8% y/y) in the May 15 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 11bps to 6.84% in the week ending May 22 from 6.73% in the week ending May 15. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 7bps to 6.18% in the May 22 week from 6.11% in the May 15 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 11bps to 6.80% in the latest week from 6.69% in the May 15 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 4bps to 6.11% in the May 22 week from 6.07% in the May 15 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 37.5% of total applications in the week of May 22 from 41.9% in the May 15 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged down to 9.4% in the May 22 week from 9.6% in the May 15 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 3.8% w/w (8.4% y/y) to $418,400 in the week ending May 22, following a decline of 1.4% w/w (+3.5% y/y) to $403,200 in the week ending May 15. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.4% w/w (7.3% y/y) to $473,600 in the latest week, after edging down 0.1% w/w (+4.6% y/y) to $466,900 in the May 15 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 3.7% w/w (15.8% y/y) to $326,400 in the week ending May 22, after declining 3.0% w/w (+8.1% y/y) to $314,700 in the May 15 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 11bps to 6.73%, after rising 9bps in the prior week. 
- Average loan size rose.

U.S. Mortgage Applications dropped in the May 22 Week

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Total job openings jumped 10.6% m/m (7.3% y/y) to 7.618 million in April, the highest level since May 2024, from a slightly upwardly revised 6.887 million in March (previously 6.866 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Accordingly, the job openings rate (the ratio of openings to nonfarm employment plus openings) rose to 4.6% in April, its highest reading since November 2024, from an upwardly revised 4.2% in March (previously 4.1%). In April, while both the number of job openings and the number of unemployed both rose, the number of openings rose much more, leaving the number of openings above the number of unemployed for the first time in ten months, another sign that previously observed softening of labor market conditions may be stabilizing.

An 11.1% m/m jump (8.9% y/y) in private sector openings to 6.841 million, the highest level since March 2024, led the overall rise. The private sector openings rate to 4.8% in April from 4.4% in March. Gains in openings were widespread across major industries with only accommodation and food services (-74k, their third consecutive monthly decline) experiencing a monthly decline in April. Leading the rise was a 668k jump in professional and business openings, by far the largest monthly gain in the series history, more than offsetting an outsized 256k decline in March. Construction and manufacturing openings rose for the second consecutive month. Total government openings increased 47K to 777k in April, their fourth monthly increase in the past five months, with a 30k increase in state and local government openings.

In contrast to the surge in openings, total hiring fell 7.6% m/m (-419k) to 5.116 million in April from a slightly downwardly revised 5.535 million in March (previously 5.554 million). The hiring rate slumped to 3.2% in April from 3.5% in March. Private sector hiring declined 423k to 4.794 million with the private sector hiring rate falling to 3.5% from 3.9% in March. Declines were widespread across major industries with only construction (+17k) and arts and entertainment (+25k, the first monthly gain in five months) posting increases. Government hiring increased 5k following a 15k decline in March.

Total separations fell 7.4% m/m (-399k) to 4.978 million in April, the lowest level since August 2020, with declines in quits (-183k), layoffs (-192k) and other separations (-23k). The separation rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest since March 2013, from 3.4% in March. Private separations plunged 413k in April, the largest monthly decline since January 2021, reflecting a 204k drop in private quits and a 194k decline in private layoffs. The decline in layoffs was concentrated in retail trade (-88k, the first monthly decline in three months) and in professional and business services (-112k). The April decline in private quits was rather widely spread across major industries, led by an 83k decrease in trade, transportation and utilities with only construction (+6k) posting a monthly increase. One implication of the widespread decline in quits is that workers do not feel comfortable with their employment prospects and hence are choosing to remain in their current job.

On the whole, employers remain cautious in hiring. Furthermore, workers are sufficiently unsure of their alternative employment prospects that they are refraining from leaving their current position. Amid all this caution on the part of both employers and workers, openings have gradually risen since the end of last year.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. 

- Openings increased to their highest level since May 2024.
- However, hiring slumped, reversing most of the March increase.
- Separations fell with declines in quits, layoffs and other separations.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Rose and Hires Fell in April

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