Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sectoral shift in US job openings

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $88.58 billion in July from $71.18 billion in June ($73.26 billion originally) and $75.75 billion in May ($77.65 billion previously), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the second time in three months the gap had widened. The July deficit was the biggest since March 2025 and larger than the $75.06 billion in July 2025. A deficit of $89.5 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports fell 2.1% m/m (+9.3% y/y) in July, the third consecutive monthly fall, after a 0.8% decline in June (-0.9% initially). Imports rose 2.8% (11.2% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, following a 1.8% June decrease (unrevised).

The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value; chained 2017 dollars) expanded to $106.39 billion in July, the largest since March 2025, after narrowing to $94.36 billion in June; it was larger than the $99.22 billion in July 2025. The $92.87 billion average monthly real trade deficit in Q2'26 was the biggest since Q1'25’s record $140.54 billion shortfall. The trade balance (net exports) subtracted 1.14%-points from Q2'26 real GDP growth after subtracting 0.37%-points in Q1'26 and 0.22%-points in Q4'25.

The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) ballooned to $119.59 billion in July, the highest level since March 2025, from $101.97 billion in June; it was larger than the $102.65 billion in July 2025. Goods exports fell 3.0% (+12.1% y/y) in July, the third successive m/m decline, after a 1.8% drop in June. Goods imports recovered 3.7% (13.7% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, following a 2.6% June decrease.

The customs value goods trade deficit widened to $118.94 billion in July, the widest since March 2025, after narrowing to $101.05 billion in June; it was much larger than the $101.28 billion in July 2025. The latest figure was in line with a $118.81 billion deficit in the advance report released on August 27. Customs value exports fell 2.9% (+11.9% y/y) in July, down for the third straight month, after a 1.7% drop in June. This reflected m/m decreases in several end-use categories, including declines of 10.8% (+18.9% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 6.8% (+4.7% y/y) in other goods, 1.0% (+10.1% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, and 0.7% (+1.0% y/y) in automotive vehicles, parts & engines, while exports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (+8.1%; +0.2% y/y) and capital goods excluding autos (+2.8%; +13.1% y/y) rose m/m in July. Significantly, exports of nonmonetary gold plunged 42.0% (+7.6% y/y) in July, the fourth m/m fall in five months, following a 59.5% surge in June. Meanwhile, petroleum exports dropped 14.7% (+31.5% y/y) in July following a 19.9% slump in June and three consecutive m/m increases; nonpetroleum exports slid 0.8% (+9.4% y/y), the fourth m/m slide in five months, after a 2.4% June gain.

Customs value imports rose 3.9% (13.9% y/y) in July, up for the fifth time in six months, following a 2.5% decline in June. This reflected m/m rises of 11.4% (47.0% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos and 0.5% (-1.3% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, while imports of industrial supplies & materials (-3.2%; -11.2% y/y), other goods (-2.0%; +8.0% y/y), automotive vehicles, parts & engines (-1.4%; +3.9% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (-0.7%; -4.2% y/y) fell m/m in July. Notably, imports of nonmonetary gold advanced 17.1% (-84.9% y/y) in July following a 2.7% increase in June and two successive m/m declines. Meanwhile, petroleum imports dropped 12.2% (+7.3% y/y) in July after an 8.8% decrease in June and four straight m/m increases, while nonpetroleum imports rose 5.0% (14.3% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, reversing a 2.0% June decline.

The services trade surplus rose to $31.02 billion in July, the highest since March, after increasing to $30.79 billion in June; it was bigger than $27.58 billion in July 2025. Services exports slid 0.4% (+4.6% y/y) in July, the first m/m decline since April, following a 1.1% gain in June. This reflected m/m decreases of 3.1% (-0.6% y/y) in travel services, 2.0% (+2.4% y/y) in transport services, and 1.5% (+12.5% y/y) in financial services, while exports of charges for the use of intellectual property (+2.0%; +9.7% y/y), telecommunications, computer, & information services (+1.2%; -0.6% y/y), and insurance services (+1.1%; +2.9% y/y) increased m/m in July. Services imports fell 0.8% (+1.8% y/y), the first m/m fall since March, after a 1.1% June rise. This reflected m/m drops of 7.9% (+16.1% y/y) in charges for the use of intellectual property, 2.8% (+4.4% y/y) in transport services, and 1.4% (-8.9% y/y) in insurance services, while imports of construction services (+3.7%; +13.1% y/y), maintenance & repair services (+3.2%; -28.0% y/y), and travel services (+1.4%; +1.1% y/y) rebounded m/m in July.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed slightly to $15.24 billion in July from $15.35 billion in June. Exports climbed 3.0% (4.8% y/y) after a 2.3% June rebound; imports grew 0.8% (4.3% y/y), the weakest of three consecutive m/m increases, following a 4.5% June rise. The goods trade deficit with the European Union fell to $8.94 billion in July, the smallest since April, after widening to $10.90 billion in June, with exports down 0.2% (+3.3% y/y) and imports down 4.2% (+1.7% y/y). The trade shortfall with Japan rose to $4.18 billion in July, a five-month high, from $3.28 billion in the previous month, reflecting declines of 13.3% (+19.4% y/y) in exports and 2.9% (+4.1% y/y) in imports.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Deficit: $88.6 bil. in July, up from $71.2 bil. in June, reflecting $119.6 bil. goods deficit & $31.0 bil. services surplus.
- Exports -2.1%, third straight m/m decline, driven by a plunge in nonmonetary gold exports.
- Imports +2.8%, fifth m/m increase in six months, boosted by a rise in capital goods imports.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to $106.4 bil., largest since Mar. ’25.
- Goods trade deficits w/ China down to a still-high $15.2 bil., w/ EU down to a 3-month low, and w/ Japan up to a 5-month high.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in July to Highest Level Since March ’25

Michael J. Moran

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported no change in the initial estimate of 1.4% growth in labor productivity in the second quarter. Output in the nonfarm business sector rose 1.7%, while labor hours rose 0.3%. Both figures were essentially unrevised in the new report, showing only fractional changes that were lost in rounding. (Productivity growth is approximately equal to output growth less growth in labor hours.)

Productivity growth in Q2 was a touch firmer than the average of 1.2% in the prior two quarters, but all three trailed the quarterly averages of 2.3% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. In all of the past three quarters, the easing in productivity growth reflected slow advances in output: 1.7% in Q2 and an average of 1.4% in the prior two quarters. Output growth averaged 2.4% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Growth of labor input in recent quarters has not deviated meaningfully from other recent averages.

The slowdown in productivity growth in the past three quarters might raise concern about the underlying pace of growth. However, the recent easing is not especially alarming, as productivity often moves erratically; soft patches have occurred in the past only to revive in subsequent quarters. Still, the past three quarters have generated a downward drift in the eight-quarter moving average of growth, which is intended to smooth the variability in productivity growth. Despite this drift, it is too early to conclude that productivity growth is fading. The eight-quarter average is still noticeably firmer than the pre-pandemic performance. The softening in recent quarters should be viewed as disappointing only to those expecting a burst in efficiency gains from artificial intelligence.

Unit labor costs—hourly labor compensation relative to productivity—rose 1.2% in Q2, a tick slower than in the prior quarter and noticeably slower than results in 2024 and 2025 (2.6% and 1.9%, respectively). Labor compensation grew moderately in Q2 at 2.6%, and the offset from 1.4% productivity growth left a restrained advance in unit labor costs.

Fed officials have argued in recent months that the labor market is not a factor pushing inflation above the target of 2.0%. The results on unit labor costs support this view. If unit labor costs were the only factor driving price changes, average growth of 1.9% last year and 1.2% so far this year would suggest an inflation rate below 2.0%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Productivity gains, while still respectable, have lost a bit of vigor in recent quarters.
- The growth of unit labor costs eased slightly from an already moderate pace.

Revised Productivity in Q2: No Adjustment to Moderate Growth

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 2,000 to 206,000 in the week ending August 29, from 204,000 in the week ending August 22, revised marginally from 203,000. The four-week average was 207,250 in the August 29 week, up from 205,750 in the August 22 week. Claims remain largely range-bound at historically low levels between 200,000 and 230,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 205,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”— rose by 8,000 to 1.779 million in the week of August 22, from 1.771 million in the August 15 week, revised down from 1.778 million. The four-week moving average edged down to 1.782 million in the August 22 week from 1.787 million in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 22. 

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending August 15, the highest unemployment rates were in Minnesota (2.03%), Massachusetts (2.12%), Rhode Island (2.22%), Puerto Rico (2.57%), and New Jersey (2.64%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.24%), Florida (0.35%), Louisiana (0.37%), Alabama (0.38%), North Carolina (0.39%), Arkansas (0.42%), North Dakota (0.46%), Kansas and Tennessee (both 0.48%), and Nebraska (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.84%), New York (1.70%), Pennsylvania (1.68%), Illinois (1.54%), and Texas (1.06%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 2,000 to 206,000 in the week of August 29.
- Continuing claims rose by 8,000 to 1.779 million in the week ending August 22.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 22.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Inched Up in the Week of August 29

Robert Brusca

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The total PMIs from S&P improved in August, with only eight of the reporting jurisdictions showing month-to-month backtracking. Only seven of the reporters in the table show readings below 50, indicating a contraction of output in the reporting country or unit.

The average and median readings for the full table show improvements, by and large, month to month in the total PMI readings. The sequential progression is more complicated, with a weakening in pace over six months and an improvement over three months compared to six months.

France, Ghana, Egypt, and Qatar show persistent levels of activity below a diffusion value of 50, indicating ongoing contraction over three months, six months, and 12 months, in addition to recent monthly readings that remain below 50 (except for Ghana in the latter case).

Nine of these 25 regions have percentile standings, depicted in the far right-hand column, below the 50% mark. These represent rankings of the August values among all observations back to January 2021. Readings below 50% indicate values below their respective medians on this timeline. So, 9 of 25 countries or reporting units as of August are showing readings that are below what they produced as a median over the previous approximately 4½ years. Among some of the larger countries, this includes France, the BRIC member Brazil, and Hong Kong, which has traditionally been a strong-performing unit when it was the British Crown Colony of Hong Kong.

Over three months, only five of the reporting areas have weakened compared to their averages over six months, and only seven of the reporting units show contraction over three months.

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Conditions across the surveyed countries continue to remain somewhat touch-and-go and certainly reflect a number of different economic circumstances. Globally, there is still a war in progress, with Russia and Ukraine enmeshed in as deep a conflict as they have experienced and with some concerns that it could spread. Russia is alleged to have been creating mischief in Europe in an attempt to unsettle NATO. The U.S. has warned Russia to stop meddling and, under no circumstances, attack a NATO country.  Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran continue to trade shots back and forth as the ceasefire has collapsed, and the U.S. has put one of the most intense embargoes in place on Iran to try to force economic pain while the U.S. naval presence tries to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for trade and oil traffic. These situations continue to dog the global economy and have continued to pressure oil prices, which in turn has put central banks on the defensive. Interest rates are either going up or threatening to go up again on a global scale, although perhaps only a mild gradient of increase is on offer. But this is something we will have to continue to watch in the period ahead.

Total PMIs Show Slow Improvement in August

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Total factory orders rose a more-than-expected 0.9% m/m in July, the first monthly rise since April, reversing a 0.2% decline in June, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.5% m/m July increase. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 9.9% in July, the highest since April, from 7.6% in June (+1.6% in July 2025), while remaining far below the April 2021 peak of 39.6%. Factory orders excluding defense rebounded 1.0% (8.8% y/y), up for the first time in three months, following a 0.3% June decrease. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.6% (9.2% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, after a 0.1% June downtick.

Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts jumped 12.7% in July following a 2.9% decline in June and a 51.1% plunge in May; orders for defense aircraft & parts increased 4.9% (53.5% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, after a 7.0% June drop and an 8.9% May gain. Additionally, orders for ships & boats climbed 5.3% in July after rising 7.5% and 3.5% in the prior two months.

Durable goods orders advanced 1.1% (12.0% y/y) in July after a 0.6% increase in June (matching +1.1% m/m in the advance report on August 26), marking the fourth m/m rise in five months. The July m/m gain was led by a 2.3% rebound (13.7% y/y) in transportation equipment, followed by increases of 2.0% (19.1% y/y) in primary metals, 0.8% (15.3% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (1.6% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.6% (10.9% y/y) in fabricated metal products. In contrast, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.1%; +14.8% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-0.3%; +6.7% y/y) declined m/m in July.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, rose 0.7% (7.9% y/y) in July, the seventh m/m gain in eight months, after a 0.9% decline in June. The July m/m increase was driven by a 2.4% rebound (+26.2% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by rises of 1.7% (+2.3% y/y) in textile products, 1.2% (-0.5% y/y) in printing, 0.7% (+2.7% y/y) in paper products, 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) in beverage & tobacco products, 0.4% (-4.7% y/y) in textile mills, 0.1% (+7.7% y/y) in chemical products, 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) in food products, and 0.1% (+3.1% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, nondurable goods shipments for leather & allied products (-1.9%; -1.0% y/y) and apparel (-0.5%; +5.5% y/y) fell m/m in July.

Total shipments increased 0.8% (8.3% y/y) in July, up for the seventh time in eight months, after no change in June. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 0.7% (8.1% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, following a 0.1% June easing. Shipments of durable goods industries grew 0.9% (8.6% y/y), the eighth straight m/m rise, after a 1.0% June increase. This reflected m/m gains in almost all durable goods shipments categories, led by a 2.9% advance (12.6% y/y) in machinery, alongside rises of 1.9% (16.8% y/y) in primary metals, 1.3% (9.1% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (2.4% y/y) in wood products, 0.8% (7.0% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods, 0.7% (2.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.2% (6.6% y/y) in fabricated metal products. In contrast, durable goods shipments for computers & electronic products (-1.2%; +8.1% y/y) and nonmetallic mineral products (-0.7%; +1.5% y/y) fell m/m in July, while those for electrical equipment, appliances & components were virtually unchanged (+5.5% y/y) following five successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.9% y/y) in July, the 12th consecutive m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in June. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders climbed 0.9% (6.4% y/y), also up for the 12th straight month, on top of a 1.0% June rise. Backlogs of durable goods grew 0.6% (8.9% y/y) in July, reflecting gains of 1.9% (8.2% y/y) in primary metals, 1.1% (6.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 1.0% (5.9% y/y) in computers & electronic products, partially offset by a 0.2% decline (-2.2% y/y) in furniture & related products.

Inventories advanced 0.4% (2.0% y/y) in July, the ninth successive m/m rise, after a 0.1% uptick in June. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y), up for the sixth consecutive month, following a 0.1% June increase. Durable goods inventories grew 0.4% (2.3% y/y) in July, the 10th straight m/m gain, after a 0.4% rise in June, while nondurable goods inventories rebounded 0.3% (1.4% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, following a 0.3% June decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory orders +0.9% (+9.9% y/y) in July, first m/m increase since Apr.; 15.2% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods orders +1.1%, fourth m/m rise in five mths.; nondurable goods orders +0.7% and shipments +0.8%, seventh m/m gains in eight mths.
- Transportation orders +2.3%, led by a 12.7% jump in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +0.6%, 12th straight m/m increase.
- Inventories +0.4%, ninth consecutive m/m rise.

U.S. Factory Orders Rebound More Than Expected in July on Strong Nondefense Aircraft Orders

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Mortgage applications rose 0.8% w/w (-9.2% y/y) in the week ending August 28, after declining 1.0% w/w (-11.1% y/y) in the week ending August 21, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 2.2% w/w (-0.6% y/y) in the latest week, after inching down 0.3% w/w (-5.7% y/y) in the August 21 week.  Applications for loan refinancing fell 1.1% w/w (-18.8% y/y) in the August 28 week following a decline of 2.0% w/w (-17.1% y/y) in the August 21 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up 1bp to 6.98% in the week ending August 28 from 6.97% in the week ending August 21, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 4bps to 6.36% in the August 28 week from 6.32% in the August 21 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate inched down1bp to 6.87% in the latest week from 6.88% in the August 21 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped by 12bps to 6.18% in the August 28 week from 6.30% in the August 21 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 41.8% of total applications in the week of August 28 from 42.0% in the week ending August 21. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.0% in the latest week from 7.9% in the August 21 week.

The average size of a mortgage fell 0.9% w/w (-3.2% y/y) to $372,500 in the week ending August 28, after inching up 0.5% w/w (-1.8% y/y) to $376,000 in the week ending August 21. The average size of a purchase loan declined 1.1% w/w to $439,200 in the August 28 week after rising 0.8% w/w to $444,100 in the August 21 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 0.8% w/w to $279,800 in the week ending August 28 after declining 0.1% w/w to $282,000 in the August 21 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase rose and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged up 1bp to 6.98%.
- Average loan size fell moderately in the August 28 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the August 28 Week

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Norwegian industrial production surged in June, rising 7.6% month-to-month after falling by 0.9% month-to-month in May. The gain was lifted by utilities output and by a screamingly strong increase in mining & quarrying output. Output in manufacturing fell by 1%, in sharp contrast.

**A bifurcated economy**: Sequentially overall output is rising by 8.2% year-over-year and at a 32% annual rate over the last three months. Both utilities & mining are showing output up at a fantastically strong pace over the most recent three months, driving overall industrial production up at an extremely strong pace. However, for the same three-month period, manufacturing output has been weak, falling at a 3.7% annual rate while rising only 0.7% over 12 months.

**Moderate to weak manufacturing**: In June, manufacturing output fell by 1%, with consumer goods output falling by 1.5%, intermediate goods output rising by 3.6%, and capital goods output falling by 1.5%. Sequentially, the main manufacturing sectors are all showing tempered rates of increases. The lone exception is intermediate goods where there is an acceleration underway, with output rising 1.3% over 12 months, at a 4% annual rate over six months, and at a 6.5% annual rate over three months. Capital goods output is weak, falling at an 8.6% annual rate over three months. Consumer goods output is falling at a 0.4% annual rate over three months, led by a sharp decline in consumer durables, which are falling at a 29% annual rate over three months. The Norwegian economy is undergoing substantial crosscurrents in manufacturing. Manufacturing is feeling some amount of duress while a boom is going on in utilities and mining & quarrying.

Over this period, inflation in Norway has been extremely well tempered, with the HICP for June falling by 0.4% and the core HICP falling by 0.2%. Headline inflation is decelerating from a 2.6% pace over 12 months to 2.2% over six months, and it is falling at a 0.8% annual rate over three months. Core inflation is even well-behaved, rising 2.8% at an annual rate over 12 months and six months, and then rising at only a 1.6% annual rate over three months. Despite the strong growth in Norwegian output, there's no sign of overheating since the manufacturing sector is weak and the strength is lodged in mining & quarrying and utilities. The inflation environment remains tempered. Norwegian manufacturing output shows that all sectors have recovered beyond their 2020 pre-COVID levels except consumer durables. Durables output is still 12% below the output levels that had prevailed in January 2020; the rest of the sectors are showing, for the most part, reasonable increases in output over that period of time, ranging from moderate to quite strong—strong in the case of utilities and mining. Capital goods output is also up 21% from its January 2020 level. The Norwegian economy is experiencing some mixed patterns.

In the quarter to date, which is now the complete second quarter, overall output grew by 6.4% at an annual rate, with manufacturing growing at a modest 2.6% annual rate. Consumer goods output grew at a 2.6% annual rate, intermediate goods output grew at a 5.4% annual rate, and capital goods output grew at a skinny 0.1% annual rate. In the quarter, inflation rose at a 0.9% pace, with the core HICP up at a 2.8% annual rate. Obviously, as this quarter was ending, conditions have progressed differently as we're now looking at extreme strength in overall industrial production, declines in manufacturing, and moderation of inflation. These trends will have to be watched closely as things are changing in Norway.

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Norway

Norway’s Industrial Production Grows Strongly, but Not in Manufacturing

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The manufacturing index published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell 1.0 index point in August, but the reading of 54.6 still suggested a solid performance in the manufacturing sector. (The index can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the critical point separating expansion from contraction.) August marked the eighth consecutive month with a reading above 50, and the past two observations were the best of the year thus far (chart, above left). 

The performance of the index this year represents a marked improvement from that in the prior three years. Indeed, the headline index was at 50 or above in only two months during the 2023-25 time span (and barely so at that: 50.5 and 50.0 in January and February 2025).

The new orders component accounted for most of the softening in the headline measure in August, falling 3.0 points to 53.7 (chart, above right). Still, the new orders index remained within the range of  observations so far this year, and the average reading of 55.46 in the past eight months easily exceeds the average of 47.69 in the prior three years. The slowdown in new orders led to a similar-sized drop in the backlog of bookings, as this index fell 3.2 points to 51.8 (this item is not seasonally adjusted). Like new orders, the backlog index remained within the range of observations this year and represented a far better performance than that in the prior three years.

The slowdown in orders had little effect on the pace of production, as this component fell only marginally (down 0.2 point to 58.3) and remained comfortably above results in the first six months of the year (which averaged of 54.07). The employment component registered a slightly larger response, dropping 1.6 points to 51.2. Despite the easing in the employment index, the reading above 50 was encouraging, as this measure was below the expansion/contraction threshold in the first six months of the year. In fact, July and August marked the first above-50 readings since September 2023.

The prices index, which is not a component of the headline measure and is not seasonally adjusted, was unchanged at 71.7. A reading far above the critical point of 50 might seem striking, but this measure often runs high; readings above 80 are not uncommon. In fact, the recent high was 84.6 in April and the index touched 92.1 during the inflationary burst in 2021-22. Much of the pressure, no doubt, reflects the jump in energy prices this year and supply chain disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Problems with supply chains were evident in the supplier delivery index, which rose 0.4 point to 59.3 (higher values in this measure signal slower delivery times). The latest observation remained below the recent highs of 60.6 in April and May, but those observations were above readings in other recent years, signaling difficulty in securing supplies (charts, below).

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- New orders accounted for most of the easing in the headline index.
- The production index showed a small decline; the employment index posted a moderate drop.
- The prices index was unchanged at an elevated level, but still below recent peaks.

ISM Manufacturing: A Dip in August, but still Signaling Expansion

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.7 in August after a 2.4-point gain to 99.8 in July, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, indicating small business sentiment cooled slightly from July’s 11-month high. The decline was driven by weaker expected business conditions as well as decreases in earnings trends and plans to increase employment. The index was above its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month and above a low of 88.5 in March 2024, albeit below 100.8 in August 2025 and a peak of 105.1 in December 2024. Six of the 10 index components fell, two rose, and two were unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index declined to 89 in August following a two-point increase to 91 in July, remaining well above its historical average of 68. The index was up from its recent low of 84 in December 2025 and a low of 65 in November 2023, while below its record high of 110 in October 2024.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months, while down in the August survey, remained positive for the 22nd straight month. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to 10% in August, the lowest level since May, following a two-point increase to 15% in July; these readings were far below a high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales dipped to a net 6% in August, a three-month low, from 7% in July; the latest result was below a high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -9% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down from -4% in July and June and marking the lowest reading since November 2025; the measure remained above a low of -20% in October 2024 but below the recent positive reading of 1% in February and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business held at 12% in August and July, the highest level since February; the latest figure was below a high of 20% in December 2024 but above a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays edged down to 24% in August from 25% in July (the highest reading since December 2024); these numbers were below a high of 28% in November 2024 and a peak of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions improved to -2% in August from -4% in July; this result matched a high of -2% in December 2024 and remained above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net -1% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in August, slightly up from -2% in July; the series had been negative since June 2025, with zero readings only for two months (June 2026 and August 2025); the positive reading of 1% was recorded in May 2025.

On the labor front, 47% of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in August, down from 51% in July and June (the highest level since September 2024). These numbers were above a low of 43% in August 2025 but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 17% planned to increase employment in August, down from 20% in July (the highest level since October 2022); it remained above its most recent low of 9% in May but below a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 35% reported positions not able to be filled in August, slightly down from 36% in July (the highest reading since June 2025); these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure fell to -19% in August following a four-point increase to -16% in July. These readings were below the most recent high of -14% in February and a high of -5% in June 2021 but above a low of -37% in August 2024.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices held at a still-elevated 31% in August and July, the lowest level since April, after a two-point increase to 38% in June. The latest reading was up from a low of 20% in August 2024 but well below a peak of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices registered at 28% in August and July, also the lowest since April, following a two-point decline to 32% in June; these readings remained above a low of 21% in April 2023.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the August survey. A net 31% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, unchanged from July and equaling May’s reading. It was above a low of 26% in November 2025 but below a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 18% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, down from 19% in July (the highest level since February); this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

Labor quality was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 23% of NFIB members in August, down from 27% in July (the highest since October 2025). Taxes ranked second as the next most important problem (alongside inflation), as reported by 16% of respondents in August, unchanged from July and representing the lowest since November 2025. Inflation also remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 16% of respondents in August, up from a four-month low of 14% in July; these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Other concerns (in August vs. July) included poor sales (10% vs. 8%), government requirements (9% vs. 7%), insurance cost/availability (8% vs. 8%), labor costs (7% vs. 8%), and competition from large businesses (4% vs. 7%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx down 1.1 pts. to 98.7 in Aug., still above its 52-year avg. of 98.0.
- Uncertainty Idx down 2 pts. to 89, remaining above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy down 5 pts. to 10%, lowest since May.
- Hiring plans down 3 pts. to 17%; earnings trends down 3 pts. to -19%.
- Expected real sales down 1 pt. to 6%, a three-month low.
- Plans to expand business unchanged at 12%, highest since Feb.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices steady at 31%, lowest since April.
- Top three business concerns: labor quality (23%), taxes (16%), and inflation (16%).

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Cools in August Amid Lower Business Expectations

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**TRANSPRT** → Passenger Statistics → Comunidad de **Madrid** Public Transport Ridership

Public transportation ridership data for Madrid was added to the **TRANSPRT** database. These data cover the four major transit modes operating across Madrid — the Metro, the public city bus, interurban bus and commuter rail - along with an aggregate for total ridership. Daily data are sourced from Consorcio Regional de Transportes de Madrid and start as early as January 2010.

Chart: Madrid achieved an all-time record in 2025 with over 1.75 billion passengers across its entire public transport system, representing a 3.75% increase over 2024 – and the momentum continues into 2026 where the YTD figures are currently higher than in 2025. The Metro is the clear workhorse with 45.3% of all trips in the region being made on the Madrid underground. Metro ridership grew 3% to reach 736.9 million passengers in 2025. The overall ridership story in Madrid is one of strong urban mobility expansion, particularly centered on its Metro system.

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**ENERGY** → Petroleum → Petroleum Product Prices Including Pump Prices → **Latvia**

Retail fuel prices for Latvia were added to the **ENERGY** database. Series reported in EUR per liter are available for 95 and 98 octane petrol, diesel and autogas which is LPG primarily used as an alternative fuel for vehicles. Monthly data are sourced from the Central Statistics Bureau and start in January 2005.

Chart: Fuel prices in Latvia hit historic lows in May 2020, reflecting the global economic shock from the pandemic and collapsed oil demand. Prices then surged dramatically, with the peak reaching 2.117 EUR/liter for petrol 98 in mid-2022 driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This was a watershed moment that permanently shifted prices to a higher baseline. Prices again spiked in May 2026 caused by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Latvia is especially exposed to these global supply disruptions since it has no domestic production of crude oil or petroleum products.

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- Number of enterprises by age of owner and revenue threshold for Canada were added to **CANADA** and **CANADAR**. 
- Public transportation ridership data for Madrid was added to the **TRANSPRT** database.
- Retail fuel prices for Latvia were added to the **ENERGY** database.

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