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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

Robert Brusca

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Manufacturing PMIs continue to show an uptrend in place. The median estimate for the 18 early reporting countries of manufacturing data is 51.6. It shows expansion at a relatively weak pace, with a slight month-to-month backtracking in the overall median reading for the 18 countries. That median fell by 0.8 points month-to-month. However, the broader readings over three months, six months, and 12 months each are above 50, and each of them shows an increase compared to the previous period. So, while there was a minor monthly setback, the overall reading shows conditions are broadly improving, and output is advancing, in manufacturing. Over a longer time horizon, changes over three months, six months and 12 months are on an improving path.

Diffusion statistics that show that proportion of readings that are getting better reveal a split of 50/50 month-to-month. However, over three months, 66.7% of reporters are improving; over six months compared to 12 months, 72.2% are improving; and over 12 months compared to a year ago, 77.8% are improving. Momentum remains in an upward direction over various horizons even in the face of month-to-month volatility in readings.

The bottom of the table shows grouped results for different batches of countries. The developed country group—the U.S., the U.K., the European Monetary Union, Canada, and Japan—show an improvement over 12 months, six months, and three months. The Asian average shows the same conditions holds with continued improvements in train. However, the BRIC countries show more stasis, with their PMI readings not clearly advancing and hovering just short of an average value of 51 on their pooled diffusion gauge.

The ranked percentile standings have made a great deal of progress over recent months. Currently, the median standing of the full-period medians for the 18 countries in the table shows an 84.7 percentile standing, which is quite impressive. Only five countries—Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico—have ranked standings below their medians on data back to 2022.

The PMIs remain relatively upbeat this month despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and the constraint on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The manufacturing sector is showing surprising resiliency in the face of these hurdles for data up to date through May.

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Manufacturing PMIs Show Continued Resilience

Winnie Tapasanun

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods unexpectedly narrowed to $82.40 billion in April after widening to a three-month-high $85.27 billion in March, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The April reading, the first narrowing in the goods trade deficit in three months, was smaller than a $85.71 billion shortfall in April 2025. A deficit of $88.2 billion for April had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a recent low of $57.95 billion in October 2025 (the smallest since March 2016) and a record-high $161.50 billion in March 2025.

In Q1'26, the goods trade deficit widened to $247.94 billion after narrowing to $239.27 billion in Q4'25; the monthly deficit averaged $82.65 billion in Q1'26, up from $79.76 billion in Q4'25. In real terms, the goods trade deficit subtracted 1.20%-point from real GDP growth in Q1'26 after having added 0.13%-point in Q4'25.

Total goods exports, up for the fourth straight month, advanced 4.0% m/m (15.6% y/y) to a record-high $219.67 billion in April, on top of a 2.9% increase to $211.20 billion in March. Exports were up 35.2% from a June 2023 low. The m/m gain in exports in April reflected m/m rises of 7.8% (6.8% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 7.5% (20.6% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 4.5% (8.2% y/y) in other goods, and 2.1% (17.8% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials. To the downside, exports of automotive vehicles & parts (-2.8%; +5.6% y/y) and foods, feeds & beverages (-0.3%; +9.5% y/y) declined m/m in April.

Total goods imports, up for the third consecutive month, rose 1.9% m/m (9.6% y/y) to $302.07 billion in April, after a 3.3% rise to $296.47 billion in March, marking the highest level since the March 2025 record high of $343.82 billion. Imports were up 20.1% from a June 2023 low. The m/m rise in imports in April reflected m/m increases of 7.5% (19.6% y/y) in other goods, 5.6% (40.1% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 0.3% (-5.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. In contrast, imports of industrial supplies & materials (-1.9%; +2.2% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (-1.5%; +4.6% y/y), and nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (-1.0%; -19.8% y/y) fell m/m in April.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $82.4 bil. in April, down $2.9 bil. (-3.4%) from March’s $85.3 bil.
- Exports +4.0%, fourth straight m/m gain to a record level, driven by a 7.8% rebound in nonauto consumer goods exports.
- Imports +1.9%, third consecutive m/m rise to highest level since Mar. ’25, led by a 7.5% recovery in imports of other goods.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in April After March Widening

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In the post-COVID cycle, inflation in Italy hit its low point early in 2023 and then again late in 2024. However, for the other large monetary union economies, France, for example, inflation hit its low point early in 2026 at a pace of about 1.1%. Germany, the traditional low-inflation country in the monetary union, has had more difficult times with inflation post-COVID. For this reason, the low point for German inflation came early in 2026 (and in mid-2025 at 1.9%). For France and Italy, headline inflation began escalating very early in 2026. For Germany, the escalation was a little later, and the spiky part of inflation was blunted on the early side; inflation has actually tipped slightly lower now, in May. However, despite these differences in timing, the overpowering sense is that inflation in the large countries has turned higher early in the year, and the European Central Bank will have some decisions to make.

**Month-to-month price changes**
In May, inflation decelerated in Germany, with the month-to-month observation going unchanged. Headline prices in Spain rose by 0.2%, in France by 0.3%, and in Italy by 0.4%. German prices excluding energy have been making steady gains for the last several months, rising by 0.2% in May; Italian core prices rose by 0.4% after being flat in April and declining sharply in March; in Spain, the core CPI rose by 0.2% for the second month in a row.

The monthly statistics on inflation from the headlines and core rates for these countries are not off-the-charts or particularly troublesome. However, when put in context in terms of 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month inflation rates, the headlines and the cores trace more disturbing patterns.

**Sequential trends in the HICPs**
Headline inflation for these countries shows over three months that inflation has a rate excessive relative to the ECB's target for the European Monetary Union as a whole. There are no country-by-country targets from the ECB, only an objective for the union-wide result. German inflation over three months is the weakest, as it logs a 4% annual rate. Italian inflation is the strongest, rising at an 8.6% annual rate. Over six months, inflation is excessive in all four of these countries. The weakest gain is in Germany at 2.4% at an annual rate; the strongest is in Italy at a 5.9% annual rate. Over 12 months, inflation is also excessive across the board relative to the ECB's overall monetary union target of 2%. The weakest gain in 12-month inflation is Germany at 2.6%, while the strongest is Spain at 3.6%. Additionally, inflation is accelerating from 12-months to six-months to three-months in both France and Italy. Although inflation is not accelerating in that three-period sequence for Germany and Spain, it is not far from doing so. All of these are going to be uncomfortable metrics for the European Central Bank to navigate. These are the headline rates for the large EMU countries, and they are clearly being pushed up by energy prices on the constriction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

**Core and ex-energy inflation trends**
Three of the four largest EMU economies give us either core inflation or inflation excluding energy metrics. On that basis, two of three economies, Germany and Spain, show excessive inflation over three months annualized, at 2.7% for Germany and 3.4%, for Spain. We compare them to the target set by the ECB for the European Union overall. Italy is the exception, with core inflation falling 0.4% at an annual rate over three months. Over six months, Germany, Italy, and Spain all have core inflation rates at or above 2%. Italy's rate comes in at 2%, Germany's ex-energy rate is at 2.2% annualized, while Spain’s CPI core checks in at 3% inflation. Over 12 months, inflation in Germany excluding energy is 2.3%, in Spain the CPI core runs 2.9%, while in Italy, inflation is still restrained for the core measure at a 1.8% annual rate.

Headline inflation and rising energy prices clearly are generating pressures such that even the core conditions aren't looking good. Core inflation rates above 3%, as we see in Spain across nearly all three timelines, are disturbing to the monetary authority. German inflation is moderate at 2.2% over six months and 2.3% over 12 months, but then it rises to a more disturbing 2.7% over three months. So far, Italian inflation is not an issue, at 1.8% over 12 months, 2% over six months, and even declining at a 0.4% annual rate over three months.

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**Summing up**
The ECB, of course, makes policy for the whole of the area, so these individual country results are inputs that the ECB will look at, but it is much more concerned with what happens to inflation for the euro area as a whole. We can see from these large countries that there is a considerable amount of inflation percolating and that the energy price increases have not been confined to impacting the headline. Also, since the ECB has been overshooting its inflation target, it has to be careful about cutting any slack for dealing with inflation when it becomes excessive. Inflation has started to accelerate in France and in Italy, at least at the headline level; the core shows accelerating inflation only for Spain. These are conditions the ECB is going to have to be sensitive to.

EMU Early Inflation Readings Rise in Large Countries

Andrew Cates

**Europe’s vulnerability to high energy prices**
The latest flash PMI data continue to highlight a highly uneven global economy. India remains exceptionally strong, while the US and Japan continue to outperform most other advanced economies. By contrast, much of Europe remains considerably weaker, with France particularly soft and both Germany and the broader euro area struggling. In many respects, this divergence increasingly reflects Europe’s heightened sensitivity to elevated energy prices and, probably, its weaker exposure to the global AI investment boom currently supporting activity elsewhere. Europe remains far more vulnerable to higher imported energy costs, while the US and parts of Asia continue benefiting from stronger technology investment cycles, semiconductor demand and AI-related infrastructure spending.

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**Higher energy prices continue to squeeze US consumers**
That said, rising gasoline prices in the US are clearly weighing on household sentiment. Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan survey, has fallen sharply even as labour markets remain relatively resilient, underscoring how sensitive households might be to renewed energy-related inflation fears. Yet this also reinforces an important counterpoint to the current inflation narrative. Unlike during the immediate post-pandemic period — when households were benefiting from extraordinary fiscal transfers, ultra-loose monetary policy and strong nominal income growth — consumers today appear more cautious and demand conditions far less exuberant.

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**Not yet another pandemic-era liquidity shock**
Indeed, and as noted above, one of the most important differences between today’s inflation fears and the post-pandemic inflation surge concerns the underlying monetary backdrop. During the Covid pandemic, central banks massively expanded their balance sheets while governments simultaneously delivered extraordinary fiscal stimulus. That combination arguably helped fuel excess liquidity, surging demand and ultimately broad-based inflationary pressures. Today, however, the picture looks fundamentally different. Central bank balance sheets across the US, euro area and Japan are no longer expanding at anything like the pace seen during the pandemic period, with reduced asset purchases contributing to a much less supportive global liquidity backdrop.The global economy is therefore entering this latest energy shock against a backdrop of greater monetary restraint, or, at the least, far less extreme monetary accommodation.

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**Broad money supply growth is not (yet) amplifying inflation concerns**
The contrast becomes even more striking when looking at broad money growth. Broad money growth across the major economies has slowed dramatically from the extraordinary rates seen during the pandemic period. In both the US and euro area, monetary growth remains subdued, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a much less supportive liquidity backdrop. This matters because periods of sustained inflation persistence have historically been associated not simply with commodity price spikes, but with strong underlying money and credit growth supporting broader demand conditions. Today’s monetary backdrop looks – for the time being - far less consistent with the kind of prolonged inflation spiral feared by many investors.

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**AI investment is becoming a full-scale infrastructure cycle**
At the same time, however, the global growth outlook is not being shaped solely by cyclical weakness and tighter monetary conditions. There remains one extraordinarily important countervailing force: the ongoing AI infrastructure boom. The scale of investment associated with artificial intelligence increasingly resembles a modern industrial boom rather than a conventional software cycle. Real US private investment in data centres has surged dramatically as hyperscalers race to build computational capacity, cloud infrastructure and AI training systems. Yet perhaps equally striking is the parallel surge in water supply construction spending. One of the great misconceptions surrounding AI is that it somehow belongs to a virtual economy detached from physical resource constraints. In reality, AI infrastructure is extraordinarily resource intensive, requiring vast quantities of electricity, cooling systems, water infrastructure and industrial-scale construction. Increasingly, the AI boom is colliding directly with broader questions surrounding energy systems, utility capacity and physical infrastructure constraints.

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**The AI cycle continues to drive global trade and investment**
Finally, the implications of this infrastructure boom are increasingly becoming visible globally through the semiconductor supply chain. South Korea’s semiconductor sector continues to provide one of the clearest real-time indicators of the scale and intensity of AI-related investment demand. Semiconductor export growth has accelerated sharply, while producer prices for semiconductors have also surged, reflecting exceptionally strong global demand for advanced chips, memory systems and computational infrastructure. In many respects, this remains the key counterweight supporting global equity markets and broader investor optimism despite ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns. Even as parts of the global economy slow under the weight of higher energy prices, the AI-driven capex cycle continues to fuel trade, infrastructure spending and corporate earnings. Increasingly, markets appear willing to tolerate elevated bond yields, geopolitical tensions and energy volatility because investors remain convinced that AI-related productivity gains and infrastructure investment could ultimately transform the medium-term growth outlook. The result is a global economy increasingly caught between two competing forces: old-world supply-side inflation risks and one of the largest technology-driven investment booms in modern history.

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The global macro backdrop remains dominated by instability in the Middle East and the lingering inflation concerns associated with elevated energy prices. Yet recent days have at least offered some tentative relief. Oil prices have softened amid heightened hopes that negotiations between the US and Iran could eventually ease tensions and help stabilise energy markets, even if the broader geopolitical situation remains fragile and key shipping routes continue to face disruption. Against this backdrop, the latest survey data continue to highlight an uneven global economy, with Europe looking particularly vulnerable given its greater sensitivity to higher energy costs and its weaker links to the global AI investment boom (chart 1). At the same time, rising gasoline prices continue to weigh heavily on US household confidence (the Michigan measure), raising concerns about the resilience of consumer demand (chart 2). An important question confronting markets in the meantime is whether inflation fears are now becoming overstated. Unlike during the post-pandemic inflation shock, central bank balance sheets are now shrinking rather than expanding aggressively, while money supply growth remains relatively weak across many major economies (charts 3 and 4). Meanwhile, the extraordinary boom in AI-related infrastructure spending — spanning data centres, utilities, water systems and semiconductors — continues to provide a major offset to broader macroeconomic weakness and remains a key pillar supporting global equity markets despite elevated geopolitical and inflation concerns (charts 5 and 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/6tVWe2AWqCqzYCfc0lU2qB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: The AI Boom Meets Inflation Angst

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New single-family home sales fell 6.2% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 units in April—below expectations—following a downwardly revised 3.4% increase to 663,000 in March (initially +7.4%, 682,000) and an upwardly revised 11.3% gain to 641,000 in February (previously +8.9%, 635,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected April sales of 665,000. April marked the first m/m fall in three months and the lowest level since January, while remaining 16.3% above the July 2022 low of 535,000. The April decline coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.33%, the highest since September 2025, from 6.18% in March, according to Freddie Mac. (**Note**: With the April 2026 release, the Census Bureau revised seasonal factors to the New Residential Sales series. SA data from January 2021 through March 2026 were revised; NSA data were not.)

Regionally, April new home sales declined m/m and y/y in all major regions except the West. Sales in the Midwest plunged 25.0% (-21.4% y/y) to 66,000 in April, the first m/m fall in three months and the lowest level since March 2025, reversing a 6.0% rise to 88,000 in March. Sales in the Northeast dropped 12.9% (-12.9% y/y) to 27,000, the third m/m decline in four months, following a 72.2% March surge to 31,000. Sales in the South slid 9.8% (-14.7% y/y) to 370,000, the first m/m slide since January and a three-month low, after a 3.3% March increase to 410,000. In contrast, sales in the West jumped 18.7% (4.6% y/y) to 159,000, the highest level since December, following a 6.3% March decrease to 134,000. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 59.5% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home rose 8.0% (2.2% y/y) to $422,500 in April, the first m/m rise in four months and the highest level since December, after a 5.1% drop to $391,100 in March. The median sales price was 8.2% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home increased 0.7% (-1.1% y/y) to $508,800 following a 3.4% March decline to $505,200. The average price was 6.0% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rebounded 1.7% (-2.2% y/y) to 489,000 in April, the highest level since October 2025, after a 1.0% decline to 481,000 in March. The latest figure was 15.3% above a low of 424,000 in May 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.4 months in April, a three-month high, from 8.7 months in March. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.3 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 3.6 months in April, the highest since August 2021, from 3.5 months in March. The latest number was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales -6.2% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to 622,000 in Apr.; +3.4% m/m (+1.1% y/y) to 663,000 in Mar.
- Sales down m/m and y/y in the Midwest, Northeast, and South; up only in the West (+18.7% m/m, +4.6% y/y).
- Median sales price +8.0% m/m to $422,500, a 4-month high; avg. price +0.7% m/m to $508,800.
- Months' supply: 9.4 mths. in Apr., a 3-month high; 8.7 mths. in Mar.

U.S. New Home Sales Drop to a Three-Month Low in April

Michael J. Moran

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The price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in April, marking the third consecutive month of rapid inflation (following two months of uncomfortable readings before the recent burst). The latest increase left the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.8%. The energy component again led the advance, with a jump of 3.9% in the latest month after a surge of 11.6% in March. Food prices also misbehaved in April, increasing 0.5%. The shift in food prices might be viewed as random, as it followed a dip of 0.1% in March. Still, the year-over-year increase of 2.5% was the quickest since late 2023.

The core price index rose 0.2% in April, but it was not far from rounding up to 0.3% (0.239%). Also, the latest change followed increases of 0.3% or 0.4% in each of the preceding four months. All told, the year-over-year change in core prices totaled 3.3% in April, far above the desired pace of Federal Reserve officials.

Personal income showed no change in April, but the softness reflected random volatility in farm income (a decline of 54.8% from an elevated level in March, which was driven by government support payments). Excluding the farm component, personal income rose 0.2% in April. In most settings, an increase of 0.2% could be viewed as respectable, but with inflation stirring, the gain translated into a drop of 0.4% in real terms. This decline was not an isolated event, as real personal income has been essentially flat or down in six of the past seven months (chart, lower left).

Despite the contraction in real income, consumers have not retrenched in a meaningful way. After growing 2.1% over the four quarters of 2025, real personal consumption expenditures rose 1.4% (annual rate) in the first quarter, and real outlays inched up 0.1% month to month in April. Relative to average real outlays in Q1, the April increase puts consumers on track for a gain of 1.5% to 2.0% in Q2.

Without strong income support, recent spending by consumers has led to a marked decline in the personal saving rate (2.6% in April versus averages of 4.6% in 2025 and 5.4% in 2024; chart, lower right). Part of the resilience in consumer spending most likely reflects higher-than-normal tax refunds. Some of the tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Budget Act became effective last year, but withholding schedules were not adjusted until this year, resulting in hefty refunds this tax season. This influence will most likely fade as the year progresses. Another influence, though, might be longer lasting: the robust stock market has boosted the financial standing of many households, reducing the need to save and opening the door to more active spending.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Food and energy prices rose sharply in April; core inflation slowed slightly, although it remained uncomfortable.
- With inflation stirring, real personal income has been soft in recent months.
- Despite softness in real income, consumers have not retrenched.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in April: Consumers Soldier on Despite Inflation and Income Issues

Sandy Batten

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Real GDP growth was revised down to 1.6% q/q saar in the second estimate from 2.0% in the advance report. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a slight upward revision to 2.1%. There was little revision to the major components with almost all of the total revision accounted for by a larger decline in inventory investment than previously estimated, which lowered the inventory contribution to total GDP growth to 0.1%-point from 0.4%-point previously.

Growth of personal consumption expenditures was revised down slightly to 1.4% q/q saar from 1.6% previously. Nonresidential fixed investment growth was revised down to 10.1% from 10.4%, mostly reflecting slightly slower growth in spending on intellectual property products, while the decline in residential investment was revised to -6.2% from -8.0%. Government spending growth was unrevised at 4.4%. However, the Q1 rebound still fell well short of reversing the 5.6% quarterly plunge in government spending in Q4 that reflected the more than one-month shutdown of the federal government. Export growth was revised up marginally while import growth was revised slower marginally. The result was a slightly smaller trade deficit than previously estimated but the revision was too small to change the contribution to overall growth from net exports.

Private domestic demand growth (final sales to private domestic purchasers, a favored gauge of demand by the Federal Reserve) was revised down to 2.4% q/q saar from 2.5% in the advance report. However, this pace is still solid and meaningfully above the economy’s potential growth rate.

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This report contained the first look at Q1 corporate profits. Their growth slowed to 0.9% q/q not annualized, but this was on top of a 6.0% quarterly jump in Q4 2025 and a 4.5% quarterly rise in Q3. Profits of domestic industries climbed 2.7% q/q in Q1 following outsized increases of 4.0% in Q4 and 3.6% in Q3. Rest of world profits slumped in Q1, falling 9.8% q/q, but this was after a 20.2% surge in Q4 and a 10.7% jump in Q3. Strong profit growth continues to underpin solid gains in equity prices.

With the release of corporate profits for Q1, it was possible to construct gross domestic income. Total production in the economy can be calculated either by adding up the expenditures across the economy and adjusting for imports and changes in inventories or by summing up the income generated by production. The former is GDP; the latter is gross domestic income (GDI). GDI rose 0.9% q/q saar in Q1, somewhat slower than GDP. Over the past year, GDP has risen 2.6% y/y while GDI is up 2.2%.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down to 1.6% saar from 2.0% in the advance estimate.
- There was little revision to the major expenditure components with almost all of the total downward revision due to a larger decline in inventories than previously estimated.
- Domestic demand growth was revised down a tick but was still a solid, above-trend 2.4%.
- This report provided the first look at Q1 corporate profits. Profit growth slowed to 0.9% q/q not annualized but this was on top of a 10.7% jump in the previous two quarters.

U.S. Q1 2026 Real GDP Growth Revised Down; Corporate Profits Slowed

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 5,000 to 215,000 in the week ending May 23, from 210,000 in the week ending May 16, revised from 209,000. The four-week average rose to 209,000 in the May 23 week from 202,750 in the week ending May 16, revised marginally from 202,500. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 212,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 15,000 to 1.786 million in the week ending May 16, from 1.771 million in the week ending May 9, revised from 1.782 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.773 million in the May 16 week from 1.770 million, revised from 1.773 million in the May 9 week. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of May 16. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending May 9, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.10%) and Washington (2.09%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.32%), Alabama (0.37%), North Carolina (0.38%), Arkansas (0.39%), Tennessee (0.47%), Iowa and Kansas (both 0.47%), and Nebraska, North Dakota and Virginia (all 0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.97%), New York (1.60%), Illinois (1.46%), Pennsylvania (1.27%), and Texas (1.03%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 5,000 to 215,000 in the week ending May 23.
- Continuing claims rose by 15,000 to 1.786 million, but the downward trend in place since October 2025 remains in place.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of May 16.


U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in the Week of May 23

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New orders for manufactured goods jumped 4.8 percent in April, led by a surge of 8.0% in the durable-goods sector and reinforced by an advance of 1.4% in orders for nondurable goods.

The increase in orders for durable goods was heavily influenced by the volatile aircraft category, which posted a striking advance of 113.3%. However, the jump did little to influence the underlying trend, as it followed a cumulative decline of 51.6% over the prior four months. Excluding aircraft orders, the durable component rose 0.9%, reinforcing a strong upward trend that began late last year (chart, above right). Bookings for computers, despite a dip in April, have been a force behind the advance excluding aircraft, but other areas have been firm as well (machinery, primary metals, fabricated metals). The results in the durable sector were in line with the preliminary estimate released last week, which showed an increase of 7.9% overall and 0.8% ex-aircraft.

The strong performance in new orders for durable goods has generated an upward trend in unfilled orders. Backlogs started to move higher in the second half of last year, and they added to that trend with an increase of 0.6% in April (chart, lower left).

The increase of 1.4% in the nondurable sector was led by a jump of 4.0% in the petroleum and coal category, which followed an average increase of 6.8% in the prior three months. These increases, of course, primarily reflected price changes rather than shifts in real activity. However, bookings outside of petroleum and coal have been firm on balance, increasing 0.8% in April after advances of 0.6% and 0.7% in the prior two months (chart, lower right). Nondurable orders also rose in the four months before this recent burst, but the changes were small. Orders for nondurable goods are typically shipped upon arrival, and thus backlogs are not tracked, but the recent flow of bookings certainly represents a solid trend.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Aircraft bookings fueled durable bookings in April, accenting solid gains in prior months.
- Petroleum prices inflated nondurable orders in April, but orders ex-petrol advanced as well.

Factory Orders: Lots of Noise, but Also Firm Trends in Recent Months

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