Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Investor sentiment worldwide is positive, especially in AI-led Asia

Andrew Cates

**Growth surprises support the equity rally**
The balance of economic news has become more favourable for equities in recent weeks. Across the G10, growth data have increasingly beaten expectations, Incoming inflation data in the meantime have been surprising to the downside. And that differential (growth surprise compared with inflation surprise) has moved closely with global share prices. The relationship is intuitive: investors welcome stronger activity when it is not matched by a comparable rise in price pressure. And that helps explain why equities have remained resilient despite rising bond yields. But it is also a fragile configuration. This week's US producer- and consumer-price releases will show whether the improvement in US growth can continue without prompting a less benign reassessment of inflation and monetary policy.

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**Uncertainty recedes, but remains high**
Some of that underlying resilience in the world economy arguably reflects a modest clearing of the policy fog. Global and US measures of economic policy uncertainty have fallen sharply from the peaks reached earlier this year. But both indices remain far above their long-run norms. The retreat has coincided with stronger equity markets, though the level still matters. Firms making investment decisions face continuing uncertainty over trade rules, costs and financing conditions. The economic outlook may have improved, but it rests on a policy environment that remains unusually unsettled.

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**A world tilting towards reflation**
An AI-generated global growth-inflation map (see chart 3 below) points to an increasingly reflationary world economy. Built from OECD and national statistics, it positions each major economy by two gauges of momentum over the past six months — the change in its OECD composite leading indicator, a guide to the direction of growth, on one axis, and the change in consumer-price inflation on the other — with each bubble scaled to the size of the economy. The four quadrants that result correspond to reflation, where both are rising; stagflation, where growth fades while inflation climbs; a benign mix of firmer growth and easing prices; and a broad slowdown. The United States, India and South Korea sit in the first of these, where both growth and inflation momentum are strengthening. Japan and Mexico occupy the more benign position of improving activity and easing price pressure, while the United Kingdom, Australia and Indonesia remain in the slowdown quadrant. China is different again: growth momentum has weakened while inflation momentum has risen from an exceptionally subdued starting point. These positions describe changes over the past six months, not the level of growth or inflation. Even so, the dispersion might make a synchronised global monetary cycle less likely. Central banks are confronting quite different domestic conditions.

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**Supply pressure stirs again**
The reflationary turn also has a supply-side dimension. Global supply-chain pressure has risen again after the long normalisation that followed the disruption of 2021 and 2022. The index has historically led producer-price inflation in advanced economies by about six months, so its latest increase points to firmer price pressure in the production pipeline. This is a signal rather than a forecast: companies can absorb some higher costs in their margins, and the pass-through to consumers depends on demand. But it suggests that the goods disinflation which helped pull headline inflation lower may be losing force.

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**The Phillips curve steepens**
Renewed supply pressure matters more when domestic economies have little spare capacity. The Phillips curve, which describes the relationship between labour-market tightness and inflation, appears to have steepened since 2020 across the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and Canada. Chart 5 below is built by regressing consumer-price inflation on the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment — a cleaner gauge of tightness than unemployment alone — while controlling for global supply-chain pressure and energy prices, and then comparing the estimated sensitivity before and since 2020. On that basis the result remains after allowing for supply-chain and energy shocks. In other words, a given increase in the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment is now associated with a larger rise in inflation than it was before the pandemic. Supply shocks still matter, but they may pass into wages and prices more readily when labour markets are tight. The final stage of disinflation could therefore prove more costly than the first.

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**The rise in yields is a real-rate story**
This backdrop helps explain the move in the bond market. The recent rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield towards 5 per cent has not been driven mainly by inflation expectations, which remain broadly stable. The Federal Reserve's DKW model instead attributes much of the increase to higher expected real short-term rates and a larger real term premium, the extra return investors demand for holding long-dated debt. Markets are repricing the real cost of capital rather than signalling a collapse in the inflation anchor. Heavy government borrowing and strong investment in defence and artificial intelligence fit that account. But the distinction offers limited comfort if renewed supply pressure and stronger demand eventually begin to lift inflation expectations as well.

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Financial markets have entered September in an awkward mood. Global equities have advanced, but long-term bond yields have risen towards multi-decade highs as the European Central Bank meets this week and the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan prepare to follow. The common thread is a turn towards reflation: growth is firming while inflation remains stubborn. Growth surprises have improved relative to inflation surprises, supporting equities (chart 1), while policy uncertainty has retreated from its peak but remains unusually high (chart 2). Most major economies are now on the expansionary side of the growth-inflation cycle (chart 3). Yet supply-chain pressure is returning (chart 4), inflation has become more responsive to tight labour markets since 2020 (chart 5), and the rise in bond yields has been driven largely by higher real rates rather than inflation expectations (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: The Reflationary Turn

Winnie Tapasanun

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Existing home sales fell 2.0% m/m (-1.2% y/y) to 3.98 million units (SAAR) in August, the third consecutive m/m fall and the lowest level since June 2025, after a 1.7% decrease to 4.06 million in July (unrevised), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected August sales of 4.00 million units. Sales remained 38.1% below a high of 6.43 million in January 2022 and 39.7% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The August decline coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.67%, the highest since July 2025, after increasing to 6.54% in July, according to Freddie Mac. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales fell 1.9% (-1.1% y/y) to 3.62 million units in August, the third successive m/m decline and the weakest reading since June 2025, following a 1.9% fall to 3.69 million in July, remaining 36.5% below a high of 5.70 million in January 2022. Sales of condos and co-ops decreased 2.7% (-2.7% y/y) to 360,000 in August, the lowest level since May 2025, after registering at 370,000 from February through July, remaining 50.7% below a high of 730,000 in January 2022.

Regionally, August existing home sales declined m/m in all regions, while remaining flat in the West. Sales in the Northeast, down for the first time since March, dropped 4.0% (-2.0% y/y) to 480,000 in August, a three-month low, reversing a 2.0% increase in July. Sales in the Midwest fell 3.1% (-2.1% y/y) to 940,000, the lowest reading since April, after falling 2.0% in July and June, and sales in the South slid 1.6% (0.0% y/y) to 1.84 million, a one-year low, after a 2.6% July drop; both posted the third straight m/m decline. Sales in the West were unchanged m/m (-2.7% y/y) at 720,000 following a 1.4% July slide, marking the lowest level since July 2025. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 46.2% of total U.S. existing home sales.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) fell 1.7% (+1.6% y/y) to $429,100 in August, the lowest since April, following a 1.4% decrease to $436,400 in July ($434,100 previously) and five consecutive m/m rises. Prices remained 18.9% above a low of $360,800 in January 2023. The median price of an existing single-family home slid 1.7% (+1.7% y/y) to $434,800 in August, a four-month low, after a 1.4% decline to $442,500 in July. The median price of condos and co-ops slipped 0.9% (+1.5% y/y) to $371,600, the lowest since March, on top of a 1.9% July drop to $375,000. Regionally, overall prices fell m/m in August in the South (-2.0%; +0.7% y/y), Midwest (-1.3%; +3.3% y/y), Northeast (-1.3%; +4.3% y/y), and West (-0.2%; -0.2% y/y).

Inventories of homes for sale climbed to the highest level since November 2019. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 3.2% (5.9% y/y) to 1.62 million units after holding steady m/m at 1.57 million in July. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.9 months in August, the highest level since November 2015, from 4.6 months in July and June. A record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- August sales -2.0% m/m to 3.98 mil., third straight m/m fall; -1.2% y/y, first y/y drop since March.
- Sales m/m down in the Northeast (-4.0%), Midwest (-3.1%), and South (-1.6%); flat in the West.
- Sales y/y down in three regions; unchanged in the South.
- Median sales price -1.7% (+1.6% y/y) to $429,100, a four-month low.
- Unsold inventory +3.2% (+5.9% y/y) to 1.62 mil. units, highest level since Nov. ’19; 4.9 months' supply, highest since Nov. ’15.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in August to Lowest Level Since June ’25

Sandy Batten

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The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4% m/m (5.4% y/y) in August following an upwardly revised 0.1% monthly gain in July (previously unchanged), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% m/m increase in August. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services (the new core index) rose 0.3% m/m (4.7% y/y) after rising an unrevised 0.4% m/m in July. The PPI excluding food and energy (the previous core index) increased 0.2% m/m (4.6% y/y) versus an upwardly revised 0.3% monthly gain in July (previously 0.2% m/m). A 0.3% m/m increase was expected for August.

Financial markets have placed a great deal of emphasis on today’s PPI report and tomorrow’s CPI report in forming expectations for the outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting. Today’s PPI report showed a slight pickup in inflation due mostly to a rebound in energy prices, but this was generally as expected. So, today’s report is not likely to have very much influence on expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting. The fed funds futures market is currently pricing in a 70% probability of a 25bps rate hike next week versus 64% just before the PPI report.

The index for final demand goods advanced 1.1% m/m (7.7% y/y) in August following two consecutive decreases. Over three-fourths of the broad-based monthly rise can be attributed to prices for final demand energy, which jumped 4.2% m/m after having declined in both June and July. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.4% m/m (5.1% y/y) while the index for final demand foods increased 0.1% m/m (0.1% y/y), its first monthly gain in three months. Over a third of the August increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for diesel fuel, which jumped 24.1% m/m. Prices for gasoline, jet fuel and home heating oil also rose. In contrast, prices for residential electric power fell 0.5% m/m in August.

The index for final demand services edged up 0.1% m/m (45% y/y) in August, the third consecutive increase. The August advance can be attributed largely to a 2.3% m/m jump rise in prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services. In contrast, the index for final demand trade services fell 0.2% m/m (+4.5% y/y) in August, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing were unchanged in August from July (+3.5% y/y). Leading the August increase in the index for final demand services, prices for truck transportation of freight advanced 2.0% m/m, the first monthly increase in three months and a reflection of the surge in the price of diesel fuel in August. The indexes for airline passenger services, legal services, hospital inpatient care, and automobiles retailing also rose. In contrast, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing decreased 11.3% m/m.

Construction costs were unchanged in August from July (+5.3% y/y) following a 2.2% monthly jump in July.

Prices for intermediate demand for processed goods jumped 1.8% m/m (11.5%) in August after declines in each of the previous two months. The August rebound again was due largely to a 7.3% monthly surge in energy prices. Processed foods prices fell 0.1% m/m while prices of processed goods less foods and energy rose 0.5% m/m.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The PPI increased 0.4% m/m (5.4% y/y) in August, in line with expectations, reflecting a 4.2% m/m rebound in energy prices.
- The core PPI rose 0.3% m/m (4.7% y/y).
- Final demand goods prices jumped 1.1% m/m, largely due to higher energy prices, following a 0.4% m/m decline in July.
- Final demand services prices edged up 0.1% m/m in August, the slowest monthly gain in three months.

U.S. Producer Prices Boosted by Rebound in Energy Prices in August

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged down by 1,000 to 206,000 in the week ending September 5, from 207,000 in the week ending August 29, revised marginally from 206,000. The four-week average was 206,000 as well in the September 5 week, down from 207,500 in the August 29 week. Claims remain largely range-bound at historically low levels between 200,000 and 230,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 205,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”— inched down by 1,000 to 1.774 million in the week ending August 29, from 1.775 million in the week of August 22, revised down from 1.779 million. The four-week moving average was 1.779 million in the August 29 week versus 1.781 million in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 29.

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending August 22, the highest unemployment rates were in Massachusetts (2.09%), Rhode Island (2.18%), Puerto Rico (2.57%), and New Jersey (2.62%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.22%), Florida (0.34%), Alabama and Louisiana (both 0.36%), North Carolina (0.38%), Arkansas (0.43%), Nebraska (0.45%), Iowa (0.46%), Kentucky (0.47%), Kansas (0.48%), Tennessee (0.47%), and North Dakota and Wyoming (both 0.49%). Rates in other notable states include Texas (1.04%), Illinois (1.47%), Pennsylvania (1.60%), New York (1.74%) and California (1.82%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims edged down by 1,000 to 206,000 in the week of September 5.
- Continuing claims inched down by 1,000 to 1.774 million in the week ending August 29.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 29.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Inched Down in the Week of September 5

Robert Brusca

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On the day that the European Central Bank met and decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, the German inflation report for August firmed, showing that headline inflation rose 0.3% on the month, with the core rising by 0.1%. Year-over-year headline inflation in Germany is excessive at 3%. However, the core rate at only 2.3% is not that far above the ECB target for all of the monetary union, a pace of 2%. German inflation for the headline is 3.6% over six months and 3.7% over three months; however, over three months and six months, German core inflation is running at 2%, the ECB’s chosen speed for inflation for the union as a whole.

German core inflation provides a counterpoint to headline inflation. It enables a strong argument that energy price inflation has not spread throughout the monetary union. However, with the ECB raising rates, German bond yields have risen to a 17-year high and the ECB seems determined to treat energy price inflation as something important and significant that it needs to fend off.

Economic conditions still show growth in the monetary union as weak at 1.0%. Growth among the top four economies is 1.1% with growth for the rest of the union year-over-year at 0.5%. So, the ECB is raising interest rates in an environment where growth is modest-to-low and where headline inflation is surging but where core inflation is much better behaved. The pace for Germany at 2% over three months and six months is right on target; 2.3% over 12 months is slightly excessive. For the entire euro area, the core inflation rate is closer to 2.5%, which is uncomfortable but not a terrible overshoot, certainly not with energy prices having flared the way they have.

Diffusion statistics show that inflation over three months in Germany has accelerated in only 27.3% of the categories; however, inflation has accelerated in 72.7% of the categories over six months and in 63.6% of the categories over 12 months. The tempered three-month inflation rate breadth does not dominate the other two metrics; however, it provides another counterpoint to the notion that inflation from oil price increases is spreading.

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Globally, oil prices are spiking again today. At the ECB press conference, the staff outlook shows inflation remaining high and stubborn for the monetary union as a whole over the next year, and this likely is a reason for the ECB to have raised rates and possibly to be ready to raise rates again. Commentary is beginning to reset probabilities for another rate hike at a higher probability before the end of the year. Of course, a lot of that is going to depend on how oil prices evolve and on growth. In the meantime, higher interest rates are going to make fiscal policy more of a problem in the EMU. Many European member countries already have high debt-to-GDP ratios, and the inability to put a cork in the bottle holding oil prices in the Strait of Hormuz is creating clear policy problems for the global economy.

Germany

A Counterpoint to the ECB Rate Hike from German Core Inflation

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Mortgage applications dropped 2.7% w/w (-19.2% y/y) in the week of September 4, after rising 0.8% w/w (-9.2% y/y) in the week ending August 28, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.2% w/w (-6.9% y/y) in the latest week following a rise of 2.2% w/w (-0.6% y/y) in the August 28 week.  Applications for loan refinancing fell 6.2% w/w (-32.1% y/y) in the September 4 week, after a drop of 1.1% w/w (-18.8% y/y) in the August 28 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 7bps to 7.05% in the week ending September 4 from 6.98% in the week ending August 28, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 4bps to 6.40% in the September 4 week from 6.36% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 6bps to 6.93% in the latest week from 6.87% in the August 28 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped by 5bps to 6.13% in the September 4 week from 6.18% in the August 28 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 40.9% of total applications in the week of September 4 from 41.8% in the week ending August 28. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.5% in the latest week from 8.0% in the August 28 week.

The average size of a mortgage rose 2.1% w/w (-5.2 % y/y) to $380,200 in the week ending September 4 after falling 0.9% w/w (-3.2% y/y) to $372,500 in the week ending August 28. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.5% w/w to $445,600 in the September 4 week, following a decline of 1.1% w/w to $439,200 in the August 28 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 2.1% w/w to $285,800 in the week ending September 4 after edging down 0.8% w/w to $279,800 in the week ending August 28. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose to 7.05%.
- Average loan size rose in the September 4 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Declined in the September 4 Week 

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Early reports for industrial production showed declines in Europe, with German industrial production falling 1.1% in July, French output falling 0.8%, and Portuguese output falling 0.2%. Nonmonetary union members Sweden and Norway both showed increases in July. The German IP report was released on Monday during the U.S. holiday; the Portuguese IP was released on September 1, while the French IP was reported today.

German production shows relatively steady declines over 12 months, six months, and three months of around 1% or a little bit more at an annual rate. Outputs of consumer goods and capital goods on all three horizons show declines. Intermediate goods output shows declines over 12 months and three months, with an intervening increase over six months at a 2.2% annual rate.

German manufacturing output fell by 2.3% in July, showing steady declines over 12 months, six months, and three months, the same as headline output. However, German manufacturing orders in real terms increased by 2.5% in July, showing an accelerating pattern from 12 months to six months to three months. Current real manufacturing sales fell by 1.5% in July and may still be holding back output. There is a sequential deceleration in real sales, with sales falling by 0.3% over 12 months, by 3.5% over six months at an annual rate, and by 7.3% over three months at an annual rate. Presumably, that pattern is about to be dominated and reversed by the strength in real orders.

Other German indicators from ZEW, IFO, and the EU Commission showed improvement in July compared to June, although the sequential readings are less reassuring since only the EU Commission index shows persistent improvement.

French industrial output fell by 0.8% in July, showing accelerating output declines from 12 months to six months to three months. Similarly, Portugal showed a 0.2% decline in July, with accelerating output declines from 12 months to six months to three months.

The nonmonetary union members Sweden and Norway not only showed strong output increases in July but also sequential acceleration from 12 months to six months to three months.

The EMU begins the quarter to date with weak results as German, French, and Portuguese outputs show declines, while Sweden and Norway are showing very strong increases. For the European Monetary Union members, it's a poor start to a new quarter.

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Europe

German, French, and Portuguese IP Fall 

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.7 in August after a 2.4-point gain to 99.8 in July, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, indicating small business sentiment cooled slightly from July’s 11-month high. The decline was driven by weaker expected business conditions as well as decreases in earnings trends and plans to increase employment. The index was above its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month and above a low of 88.5 in March 2024, albeit below 100.8 in August 2025 and a peak of 105.1 in December 2024. Six of the 10 index components fell, two rose, and two were unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index declined to 89 in August following a two-point increase to 91 in July, remaining well above its historical average of 68. The index was up from its recent low of 84 in December 2025 and a low of 65 in November 2023, while below its record high of 110 in October 2024.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months, while down in the August survey, remained positive for the 22nd straight month. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to 10% in August, the lowest level since May, following a two-point increase to 15% in July; these readings were far below a high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales dipped to a net 6% in August, a three-month low, from 7% in July; the latest result was below a high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -9% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down from -4% in July and June and marking the lowest reading since November 2025; the measure remained above a low of -20% in October 2024 but below the recent positive reading of 1% in February and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business held at 12% in August and July, the highest level since February; the latest figure was below a high of 20% in December 2024 but above a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays edged down to 24% in August from 25% in July (the highest reading since December 2024); these numbers were below a high of 28% in November 2024 and a peak of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions improved to -2% in August from -4% in July; this result matched a high of -2% in December 2024 and remained above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net -1% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in August, slightly up from -2% in July; the series had been negative since June 2025, with zero readings only for two months (June 2026 and August 2025); the positive reading of 1% was recorded in May 2025.

On the labor front, 47% of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in August, down from 51% in July and June (the highest level since September 2024). These numbers were above a low of 43% in August 2025 but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 17% planned to increase employment in August, down from 20% in July (the highest level since October 2022); it remained above its most recent low of 9% in May but below a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 35% reported positions not able to be filled in August, slightly down from 36% in July (the highest reading since June 2025); these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure fell to -19% in August following a four-point increase to -16% in July. These readings were below the most recent high of -14% in February and a high of -5% in June 2021 but above a low of -37% in August 2024.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices held at a still-elevated 31% in August and July, the lowest level since April, after a two-point increase to 38% in June. The latest reading was up from a low of 20% in August 2024 but well below a peak of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices registered at 28% in August and July, also the lowest since April, following a two-point decline to 32% in June; these readings remained above a low of 21% in April 2023.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the August survey. A net 31% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, unchanged from July and equaling May’s reading. It was above a low of 26% in November 2025 but below a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 18% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, down from 19% in July (the highest level since February); this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

Labor quality was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 23% of NFIB members in August, down from 27% in July (the highest since October 2025). Taxes ranked second as the next most important problem (alongside inflation), as reported by 16% of respondents in August, unchanged from July and representing the lowest since November 2025. Inflation also remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 16% of respondents in August, up from a four-month low of 14% in July; these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Other concerns (in August vs. July) included poor sales (10% vs. 8%), government requirements (9% vs. 7%), insurance cost/availability (8% vs. 8%), labor costs (7% vs. 8%), and competition from large businesses (4% vs. 7%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx down 1.1 pts. to 98.7 in Aug., still above its 52-year avg. of 98.0.
- Uncertainty Idx down 2 pts. to 89, remaining above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy down 5 pts. to 10%, lowest since May.
- Hiring plans down 3 pts. to 17%; earnings trends down 3 pts. to -19%.
- Expected real sales down 1 pt. to 6%, a three-month low.
- Plans to expand business unchanged at 12%, highest since Feb.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices steady at 31%, lowest since April.
- Top three business concerns: labor quality (23%), taxes (16%), and inflation (16%).

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Cools in August Amid Lower Business Expectations

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions fell sharply to a lower-than-expected 7.6 in September following a 5.0-point increase to 20.6 in August, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of 14.1 for September had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The positive September figure indicated that business activity in New York State expanded for the sixth straight month but at the slowest pace since June and well below August’s level (the highest since December 2021). Nevertheless, it was a sharp improvement from -7.0 in September 2025 and a low of -29.7 in January 2024. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions was 33.9% in September, down from 43.8% in August; the percentage reporting a decrease was 26.3%, up from August’s 23.1%. The latest survey was conducted between September 2 and September 10.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index eased to 53.7 in September following a 2.1-point decline to 55.4 in August, representing the ninth consecutive expansion but at the slowest pace in three months; it was up from 46.1 in September 2025 and well above a low of 43.0 in January 2024. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, with equal weights (20% each).

In the latest survey, the new orders index fell to 2.0 in September after a 4.9-point decrease to 17.3 in August, marking the weakest of nine successive months of expansion; it was a sharp improvement from a low of -30.7 in January 2024 but a drop from a high of 19.6 in April 2023. The shipments index plunged to -3.2 in September following a 12.7-point fall to 11.7 in August, representing the first negative shipments reading since March; it was well above a low of -21.7 in April 2024 but below a high of 21.0 in June 2023. The unfilled orders index fell to 5.9 in September after a 10.5-point jump to 15.5 in August, indicating unfilled orders expanded for the eighth straight month but at a slower pace; the index reached a low of -24.2 in January 2024. The inventories index rebounded to 8.9 in September following a 9.2-point slide to -5.2 in August, signaling inventory growth at the strongest rate since May. Meanwhile, the delivery times index slipped to 18.8 in September from 20.6 in August (the highest reading since April 2022), with 25.7% of respondents reporting longer delivery times and 6.9% reporting shorter times, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen.

On the labor front, the number of employees index rose to 10.6 in September after a 2.1-point decline to 9.3 in August, indicating employment expanded for the eighth straight month. The index remained well above a low of -9.3 in December 2023 but below a peak of 24.9 in February 2022. In September, 19.0% of respondents reported an increase in employment while 8.4% reported a decline. The average workweek index jumped to 17.0 in September from 6.9 in August, remaining positive for the eighth month running and at the strongest level since November 2021.

Inflation pressures remained elevated in September. The prices paid index advanced to 63.1 in September, the highest level since July 2022, after a 6.3-point rise to 58.6 in August. The index was above a low of 25.9 in December 2024 and a low of 19.9 in July 2023, albeit remaining well below a peak of 84.9 in April 2022. In September, 63.7% of respondents reported higher prices paid while only 0.6% reported lower prices paid. The prices received index increased to 28.1 in September, a three-month high, from 22.7 in August. The index was above a low of 7.5 in December 2024 and a low of 7.7 in July 2023 but far below a high of 51.9 in March 2022. In September, 30.6% of respondents reported higher prices received while 2.6% reported lower prices received.

Firms remained optimistic about the future business outlook in the latest survey. The index for future business conditions eased to 29.0 in September, the 17th straight month of positive readings, after a 4.2-point gain to 32.1 in August, with 50.5% of respondents expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future new orders pulled back to 25.3 in September, the lowest level since April, from 37.1 in August; future shipments slid to 25.5, a five-month low, from 33.7. Growth in future employment decelerated to 20.0 in September from 28.2 in August (the strongest reading since March 2022). Capital spending plans remained positive for the 11th consecutive month in September, with the future capital expenditures index easing to 14.9, a three-month low, from August’s 16.5. Expected prices paid climbed to 67.3 in September, the highest level since June 2022, from 57.7 in August, while expected prices received declined to 42.3 from 48.7.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- General Business Conditions Index down 13.0 pts. to 7.6 in Sept.; sixth straight expansion.
- New orders (2.0), down 15.3 pts.; weakest level since Dec. ’25, still indicating expansion.
- Shipments (-3.2), down 14.9 pts.; first negative reading since March.
- Unfilled orders (5.9), down 9.6 pts. but staying positive; inventories (8.9), highest since May.
- Employment (10.6), up 1.3 pts.; eighth consecutive expansion.
- Prices paid (63.1), highest since July '22; prices received (28.1), a three-month high.
- Firms still optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index down to a still-expansionary 29.0; future prices paid rising to 67.3, highest since June ’22.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Cools Sharply in September

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