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Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Michael J. Moran

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The industrial production index fell 0.5% in March, noticeably weaker than the expected increase of 0.1%. In addition, the March results were joined by slight net downward revisions in prior months (sharp upward revision in February offset by a larger downward adjustment in January and tweaks in earlier months). A good portion of the March softness was the result of a drop of 2.3% in utility output, which is not deeply concerning because changes in this sector typically are driven by weather conditions. However, mining activity also was soft (-1.2%), and manufacturing production dipped 0.1%.

Within manufacturing, auto production played a large role in the dip, registering a decline of 3.7%. However, the auto sector had plenty of company on the soft side, as furniture, textiles, apparel, and printing all posted declines of more than 1.0%. Given these drags, manufacturing output excluding autos rose only 0.1%. There was a nearly even split between expanding and contracting industries within manufacturing: 11 boosting production and 9 reducing activity.

The dip in manufacturing activity in March might seem inconsequential in light of solid advances in January and February (up 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively). However, the gains early in the year followed a weak fourth quarter, leaving an unimpressive trend.

Trends in industrial activity are often more apparent by focusing on the level of production indexes rather than month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes. As shown the chart below, the level of the manufacturing index stirred for a time in 2025, but it lost momentum in the closing months of the year. Changes so far in 2026 have not pushed the index above the September 2025 peak. The 6-month moving average of the manufacturing index is now running sideways.

The capacity utilization rate in manufacturing has naturally reflected movement in production. Utilization rose in 2025 as production strengthened, but it retraced most of the upward movement once momentum in production faded. The utilization rate in manufacturing stood at 75.2% in March, down slightly from the average of 75.4% in 2025.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Downward noise in utility output; slow activity in manufacturing and mining.
- Flat underlying trend in recent months.

Industrial Production: Soft in March

Winnie Tapasanun

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The current general activity diffusion index unexpectedly jumped to 26.7 in April from 18.1 in March and 16.3 in February, the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District this month and at the highest level since January 2025. April was the fourth successive m/m increase and the fifth in six months, showing a sharp improvement from -12.9 in April 2025. A reading of 15.0 for April had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In April, 32.6% of firms reported increases in current general activity (down from 39.2% in March), while 5.9% reported decreases (down from 21.1%); 61.5% reported no change (up from 34.6%). Survey responses were collected from April 6 to April 13.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index eased to 54.5 in April after a 6.2-point rebound to 54.8 in March, indicating manufacturing activity expanded for the fourth time in five months; it was above a contraction-level 44.8 in April 2025.

In the latest survey, the new orders index surged to 33.0 in April from 8.6 in March, signaling new orders expanded for the fifth straight month and at the highest level since November 2021. The shipments index advanced to 34.0 this month from 22.2 in March, marking the fifth consecutive expansion and the highest level since May 2022. In contrast, the unfilled orders index dropped to -10.2 in April from -4.7 in March, extending its ninth straight contraction. The inventories index decreased to -1.9 this month from 1.4 in March, showing the third contraction in four months. Meanwhile, the delivery times index fell to a near‑neutral 1.7 in April from 18.9 in March (the highest reading since April 2022), suggesting a rapid easing of supply‑chain pressures rather than a demand‑driven slowdown.

On the labor front, the number of employees index slid to -5.1 in April from 0.8 in March, indicating employment contracted for the second time in three months and hit its lowest level since June 2025. In April, 10.1% of respondents reported increases in employment, while a higher 15.2% reported declines; 70.4% reported no change in employment levels. The average employee workweek index rose to 7.7 this month, the highest reading since January, from 2.8 in March.

Inflation indicators remained elevated in April. The prices paid index jumped to 59.3 this month, the highest level since August, after a 5.8-point rise to 44.7 in March. A higher 61.4% of respondents reported increases in input prices in April, while only 2.1% reported decreases. The prices received index rose to 33.5, an eight-month high, after a 4.5-point March increase to 21.2. In April, 33.5% of respondents reported increases in prices received, while 0.0% reported decreases.

The future indexes generally remained in positive territory, signaling continued overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators declined. The future general activity diffusion index rebounded to 40.8 in April from 40.0 in March, staying positive since February 2024. The following future indexes fell in April (vs. March) but remained in positive territory: new orders (45.7 vs. 49.6), shipments (40.8 vs. 53.6), and employment (35.9 vs. 40.4). Future indexes for unfilled orders (-4.1 vs. 15.3) and inventories (-0.7 vs. 16.8) moved into contraction in April after expanding in March. Notably, the future capital expenditures index rose to 35.2 this month, the highest level since August, from 25.8 in March. Prices continued to increase, with the future prices paid index easing to a still‑high 50.2 in April from 53.7 in March and the future prices received index rising to a three-month-high 50.2 from 38.4.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The indexes range from -100 to +100 with positive values indicating an increase in activity. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Current General Activity Index up 8.6 pts. to 26.7 in Apr.; fourth consecutive m/m rise.
- Positive: Shipments (34.0), highest since May ’22; New Orders (33.0), highest since Nov. ’21.
- Negative: Employment (-5.1), lowest since June ’25; Unfilled Orders (-10.2), ninth straight contraction.
- Inflation indicators at eight-month highs and well above long-run nonrecession avgs.
- Future General Activity Index up to 40.8; most subindexes down but still positive; future price indexes still above long-run avgs.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Climbs in April to Highest Level Since Jan. ’25

Sandy Batten

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 11,000 to 207,000 in the week ending April 11, from 218,000 in the week ending April 4, revised down slightly from 219,000. The four-week average edged up to 209,750 from 209,250. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 215,000 new claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 31,000 to 1.818 million in the week ending April 4, from 1.787 million in the week ending March 28 (revised down from 1.794 million). The four-week moving average declined to 1.813 million in the latest week from 1.821 million in the March 28 week. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of April 4. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending March 28, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.50%), Massachusetts (2.50%), New Jersey (2.49%), Washington (2.28%), and Minnesota (2.16%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.31%), Alabama (0.36%), North Carolina (0.39%), and Virgin Islands (0.39%). Rates in other notable states include California (2.06%), New York (1.91%), Illinois (1.88%), Michigan (1.75%), Pennsylvania (1.56%), and Texas (1.05%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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- New claims fell by 11,000 to 207,000.
- Continuing claims jumped 31,000 to 1.818 million.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Fell in Most Recent Week

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Import prices rose a less-than-expected 0.8% m/m (2.1% y/y) in March notwithstanding a 9.4% monthly jump in imported petroleum and petroleum products prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 1.3% m/m increase previously reported for February was revised down to a 0.9% monthly gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 2.4% m/m increase in March. Export prices rose more than did import prices but also less than expected. They were up 1.6% m/m (5.6% y/y) in March following an upwardly revised 1.9% monthly rise in February. The 5.6% annual gain was the largest since November 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 2.1% monthly increase. (**Note**: Import and export price indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the prices of goods before taxes. Tariffs are classified as taxes and therefore are excluded from these calculations. October 2025 data were unavailable due to the U.S. federal government shutdown.)

Apart from the jump in imported petroleum prices, increases in other import prices were rather moderate in March. Import prices for fuels and lubricants increased 2.9% m/m in March, following an advance of 2.4% in February. The March increase was the largest monthly gain since the index rose 3.0% m/m in January 2025. Higher prices for petroleum more than offset lower prices for natural gas. In March, prices for imported petroleum and petroleum products advanced 9.4% while natural gas import prices declined 71.0% m/m in March, after having risen 77.3% over the prior three months. Prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.6% m/m in March, following a rise of 0.8% m/m in February. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (1.6% m/m), capital goods (0.5% m/m), consumer goods excluding automotives (0.4%), and foods, feeds, and beverages (0.5%) drove the increase. Nonfuel import prices advanced 2.8% y/y, the largest annual advance since the index rose 2.9% y/y in October 2022.

The March increase in exports prices reflected monthly gains in both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices. The price index for agricultural exports increased 0.9% m/m in March, following a 0.9% monthly rise in February. Higher prices for soybeans, fruit, and meat drove the advance in agricultural export prices in March. Export prices for nonagricultural commodities increased 1.7% m/m in March, after rising 2.1% in February. Higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (+4.3% m/m, reflecting an 18.4% monthly jump in prices of petroleum and petroleum products) more than offset lower prices for capital goods (-0.2% m/m) and for consumer goods excluding automotives (-0.2% m/m). 

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Despite a 9.4% m/m jump in imported petroleum prices, import prices rose a less-than-expected 0.8% in March with a small downward revision to February.
- Export prices increased more than did import prices, rising 1.6% m/m in March, but this was also less than expected.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Increase Less than Expected in March

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Mortgage applications rebounded 1.8% w/w (5.0% y/y) in the week ending April 10 following a 0.8% decline in the week ending April 3, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the first w/w increase in five weeks, lifting the index to 281.0, its highest level since the March 20 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 1.0% (-2.9% y/y) in the April 10 week, the third w/w fall in four weeks, after a 1.1% gain in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.1% (14.8% y/y) in the April 10 week, the first w/w rise since the March 6 week, reversing a 2.8% drop in the April 3 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 8bps to 6.60% in the week ending April 10, the lowest since the March 13 week, from 6.68% in the week ending April 3; it was above a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined 5bps to a three-week-low 6.04% in the April 10 week from 6.09% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans eased 4bps to 6.61% in the April 10 week, the lowest since the March 20 week, from 6.65% in the prior week; it was above a low of 6.57% in the week of September 13, 2024 but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM fell 5bps to 5.80% in the April 10 week, the lowest since the March 6 week, from 5.85% in the previous week; it was above its most recent low of 5.38% in the February 20 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rebounded to 45.5% of total applications in the week ending April 10, the first w/w increase since the February 27 week, from 44.3% in the week ending April 3; those numbers remained below a peak of 61.9% in the January 16 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity slipped to 8.4% in the April 10 week from 8.6% in the prior week; it was below a peak of 12.9% in the week of September 12, 2025 but above a low of 4.7% in the week of January 3, 2025.

The average size of a mortgage loan climbed 1.3% w/w (-4.8% y/y) to $395,000 in the April 10 week, the highest level since the March 13 week, after a 0.2% increase to $390,100 in the April 3 week. The average size of a purchase loan recovered 1.8% (2.4% y/y) to $456,100 in the April 10 week after a 0.3% decline to $448,100 in the prior week, marking the first w/w rise in four weeks and the highest level since the week of March 7, 2025. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 1.5% (-13.6% y/y) to $321,800 in the April 10 week, the highest level in three weeks, following a 0.1% uptick to $317,000 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications -1.0% w/w, third decline in four weeks; refinancing loan applications +5.1% w/w, first rise since the March 6 week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans down 8bps to 6.60%, a four-week low.
- Average loan size up to the highest level since the March 13 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Up 1.8% in the April 10 Week, First Gain in Five Weeks

Robert Brusca

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**The rebound that wasn’t**
Industrial production rebounded without vigor in February, gaining 0.4% after falling by 0.8% in January. Moreover, the trends are poor and show no sign of stabilization. 12-month to 6-month to 3-month overall output is sinking faster than is manufacturing output. And all the major manufacturing sectors show either clear signs or strong hints of progressively faster declines in output.

Half or more of the countries in the table report output falling in January and in February. This is not a stabilizing condition.

All sectors show quarter-to-date (QTD) declines in the unfolding Q1 output stream, and only six countries show QTD output increases in progress. The breadth of output increases is poor, and their trends for growth are extremely poor. So I have to brand this rebound as technically visible in February alone, but in a broader perspective, conditions are weakening.

In terms of sectors, only one EMU-wide sector has a 12-month growth rate above its median pace—that sector is capital goods, with a ranking in its 57th percentile compared to the median whose ranking is 50%. Only six countries in the table have manufacturing growth rates that exceed their historic median pace. That makes the breadth of IP growth as weak as well.

**Not reassuring**
There is nothing reassuring about the February IP report, and it precedes the onset of the Iran war. We have since seen very broad weakness ahead in the S&P PMI indexes. We are certainly headed for a difficult period ahead. Since the period of international disruption has just begun in March, we are entering this difficult time in a weakened position. It would seem to be a good time to get defensive since inflation is bound to go up and high oil prices will weaken demand and already are creating some significant local chaos in developing economics that already were hand-to-mouth.

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Europe

Euro Area IP Makes Modest Rebound—or Does it?

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As widely expected, energy prices surged in March, with the increase of 8.5% among the firmest in the history of the series. A reading in August 2023 was close (8.4%), and the increase in June 2022 was a touch firmer (8.9%). Only the June 2020 observation was decidedly stronger at 9.6%. (Data on the current version of the PPI begin in 2010.) The jump in energy prices pushed the headline index 0.5% higher, an uncomfortable reading but better than expectations in the market, which clustered in the range of 0.8% to 1.2%.

March represented the third consecutive month with a headline increase of 0.5%, and the advances in the prior two months were not entirely due to energy. Prices excluding food and energy also rose 0.5% in January and February (and December as well), which might stir thoughts of accelerating inflation.

However, pressure outside of energy cooled in March. Food prices fell 0.2% and prices excluding food and energy rose only 0.1%. Service prices, which rose an average of 0.6% in the prior three months, increased less than 0.1%. The modest changes outside of food and energy raised the prospect that an upward trend that seemed to be developing might now be fading. The March change, alone with a less-than-troubling increase in February, led to a downward tilt in the six-month moving average of core price changes (chart, below left).

All of the prices in the headline PPI and its components are final prices – that is, prices paid by the ultimate buyer of goods and services. For goods, the products involved will not undergo further processing. The full report on producer prices also includes price indexes for intermediate inputs. These indexes could provide clues on what might unfold for finished goods in months ahead. This obscure part of the PPI also offered a hint of encouragement.

Input prices for stage four production (i.e. the final stage of the production process) rose 0.5% in March. The increase, while hefty, was slower than the results in the prior two months and it stabilized the upward trend in the six-month average (chart, below right). The input price indexes should be interpreted cautiously because they tend to be more volatile than those for finished goods, but with broad-based cooling in March, this measure might have signal value in this instance.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Energy prices surged in March, but most other items showed modest changes.
- Tame readings were a relief from hints of upward pressure in prior months.

March PPI: Tame Excluding Energy

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Japanese industrial production in February declined by 1.1%, led by a 2.1% drop in manufacturing output. By sector, consumer goods output fell by 0.3%, intermediate goods output fell by 2.1%, while investment goods output dropped by a strong 2.5%, all on a month-to-month basis. Mining sector output fell by 1.5% in February, while utilities output fell by 3.8%.

Sequentially, however, Japanese output had been accelerating, up by 0.1% over 12 months, at a 4.5% annual rate over six months, and at a 7% annual rate over three months.

**Manufacturing**
Manufacturing output is up at 0.3% over 12 months, at a 6.6% annual rate over six months, and by 11.7% annualized over three months.

Within manufacturing, consumer goods output is expanding at a strengthening pace, rising by 0.8% over 12 months, at a 4.8% annual rate over six months, and then at a 10.8% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods output is flat over 12 months, rising at a 2.9% annual rate over six months, and at a 6.2% annual rate over three months. Investment goods output is up at a 7% annual rate over 12 months, at a 5.2% annual rate over six months, and at a 6% annual rate over three months. However, mining output is down year-over-year; output changes get progressively worse from 12 months to three months. Utilities show a 4.8% decline over 12 months, decline by 3.2% at an annual rate over six months, and then fall at a 4.7% annual rate drop over three months. Mining and utilities sectors are experiencing more in the way of contracting effects.

**Quarter-to-date**
Reported on a quarter-to-date basis (two months into Q1), total industry output is up at a 7.3% annual rate, with manufacturing up at a 15.2% annual rate on the same basis. For sectors, however, the strength is in consumer goods and investment goods where output is increasing at an 11.9% annual rate in the quarter; intermediate goods output is up at a 9.3% annual rate quarter-to-date. Mining output shows a decline at an annual rate in the quarter-to-date, while utilities output posts an increase.

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**The trends are good...but**
The trend data provide an upbeat assessment for Japanese output despite the setback in February. However, we know this isn't going to last. The global economy has run into a buzz-saw since then. Global PMI survey data took a sizable step back in March as the war with Iran began, and with oil prices spiking, all past trends are basically off the books, and we have to recalibrate everything. What we can see is that the Japanese economy was on a run and was doing better. It was beginning to make inroads before the Iran war took place.

Japan has a history of locking up oil supplies long in advance, so the economy may continue to have more resiliency to oil prices than other economies and compared to what people expect. On the other hand, if Japan has contracts to supply oil at a price and supplies cannot get out of the Middle East, those contracts may not count for much. However, there still are going to be perceptions and expectations for the future and concerns about what's going to happen to global demand—nobody is out of the woods yet. For now, trend-based data in Japan look extremely good; however, we know not to believe it will last. At this point, we're not sure what to expect next, except something that will be much worse.

Japan

Japan’s IP: A Step Back in February

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Total retail sales rose a larger-than-expected 1.7% m/m (+4.0% y/y) in March following an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m gain in February (previously +0.6% m/m) in February, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 1.4% m/m increase. Excluding autos, other sales soared 1.9% m/m (+5.5% y/y) in March after an upwardly revised 0.7% monthly gain in February (previously +0.5% m/m). The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 1.4% m/m increase in sales excluding autos. The March increase in total sales was the largest monthly increase since last March while the March jump in ex-auto sales was the largest monthly gain since January 2023.

As expected, a 15.5% m/m surge in sales at gasoline stations, largely reflecting a previously reported 21.2% m/m jump in retail gasoline prices, accounted for much of the monthly increase in both overall and ex-auto sales in March. However, sales were solid even without gasoline sales. Total sales excluding gasoline rose 0.6% in March versus a 0.7% monthly gain in February. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline increased 0.6% m/m in March, the same rise as in February. Forecasters expected only a 0.2% m/m increase in sales ex both autos and gasoline.

The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) posted another solid increase in March, rising 0.7% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.6% monthly increase in February (previously +0.5% m/m). For all of Q1, control group sales were up 1.2% q/q, up from a 0.7% quarterly gain in Q4. This points to a somewhat surprising pickup in household spending growth when Q1 GDP is reported on April 30. Many analysts had feared that the sharp rise in gasoline prices would put significant stress on household finances and thereby slow spending. A possible explanation for the recent resilience of sales is larger income tax refunds this year owing to the OBBBA which reduced taxes during last year while the withholding tables were not adjusted until this year (resulting in more over-withholding last year).

Sales across major sectors generally posted solid gains in March. Auto sales rose 0.5% m/m on top of a 1.0% m/m increase in February. Furniture and appliance sales jumped 1.6%, the third consecutive monthly gain and the largest since December 2024. General merchandise store sales jumped 1.0% m/m, their largest monthly gain since April 2023. Nonstore retail sales increased 1.0% m/m in March, their third consecutive month with an increase of 1% or more. Building material and garden supply store sales rose 0.7% m/m in March, their fifth consecutive monthly increase. Sales at food and beverage stores increased 0.7% m/m in March, their first monthly gain in three months. By contrast, clothing sales were unchanged following a 2.8% monthly jump in February. Sales at sporting goods, book and music stores were also unchanged in March after a 0.7% monthly rise in February. Eating out sales edged up 0.1% m/m in March following a 0.5% m/m increase in February. The only major category posting a monthly decline in March was “miscellaneous” sales which fell 0.9% m/m but this was after 2.2% m/m gains in both January and February.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total sales jumped 1.7% m/m in March with small upward revisions to January and February.
- Gasoline sales surged 15.5% m/m in March, but even excluding that increase, the remainder of retail sales rose 0.6% m/m.
- Excluding autos, sales soared 1.9% m/m in March with small upward revisions to January and February.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.7% m/m in March and 1.2% q/q for all of Q1.

U.S. Retail Sales Jumped in March only Partly Due to Surging Gasoline Prices

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