Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

PMIs showing widespread revival of global economy

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ending July 4, from 217,000 in the week ending June 27, revised from 215,000. The four-week average was 218,750 in the July 4 week, down from 222,500 in the week ending June 27. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 218,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 8,000 to 1.814 million in the week ending June 27, from 1.806 million in the week ending June 20, revised from 1.814 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.808 million in the June 27 week from 1.801 million in the June 20 week. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of June 27. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending June 20, the highest unemployment rates were in Washington (2.03%), New Jersey (2.11%), Minnesota (2.15%), and Puerto Rico (2.45%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Florida (0.35%), Alabama and North Carolina (both 0.41%), Louisiana (0.42%), and Arkansas (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.88%), Pennsylvania (1.63%), Illinois (1.58%), New York (1.52%), and Texas (1.12%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ending July 4.
- Continuing claims rose by 8,000 to 1.814 million in the week ending June 27.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of June 27.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of July 4

Robert Brusca

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The German trade surplus surged in May to €19.1 billion from €14.7 billion in April. Exports rose by 0.9% in May while imports fell by 2.5%, creating a jump in the surplus month-to-month. In April, exports increased by 0.8% while imports rose by 1.1%.

Details on exports and imports lag by one month. In April, exports for motor vehicles and consumer goods declined, while exports of capital goods and other exports rose. On the import side, there were increases in imports ranging from 2.8% to 4.3% month-to-month across capital goods, motor vehicles, and consumer goods, but for the catch-all category ‘other’ imports fell by 2.7% month-to-month.

Flows adjusted for inflation showed an increase in exports of 0.4% in May while real imports fell by 3.3%. In April, real exports were flat while real imports fell by 0.2%.

The sequential behavior of real exports and real imports show independent activity. Imports log a clear weakening, rising 0.1% over 12 months, falling at a 5% annual rate over six months, and then falling at a 10.3% annual rate over three months. On the export side, real exports rose by 2.6% over 12 months, accelerated to a 7.2% annual rate over six months, but over three months have pulled back and fallen at a 1.6% annual rate. However, export growth still exceeds import growth over each of these horizons: 12 months, six months, and three months.

Trade trends paint a darkening picture of the German economy, with imports weak in real terms and trending even weaker, while activity on the export side of the equation pops over 12 months and six months but takes a hit over three months.

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The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to muddy the waters for the future. Passage through the strait has been sharply stopped, stabilized, revived, and now is back to being destabilized. That makes the strait a major uncertainty zone; it's hard to tell how these effects are going to play out over the coming months for German trade results and everyone else's. The deterioration of conditions in the Strait of Hormuz is now unknowable because Iran has decided to start shooting at ships, further destabilizing the outlook.

Germany

German Trades Surplus Balloons

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Mortgage applications dropped 2.2% w/w (-5.4% y/y) in the week ending July 3, following no change in the week ending June 26, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.6% w/w (-6.3% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 0.5% w/w (3.2% y/y) in the June 26 week.  Applications for loan refinancing dropped 4.1% w/w (-4.2% y/y) in the week ending July 3, after declining 0.7% w/w (+9.1% y/y) in the June 26 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 1bp to 6.77% in the week ending July 3 from 6.76% in the week ending June 26. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages edged down 2bps to 6.17% in the July 3 week from 6.19% in the June 26 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate edged down 1bp to 6.62% in the latest week from 6.63% in the June 26 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 5bps to 6.19% in the July 3 week from 6.14% in the June 26 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan declined to 40.6% of total applications in the week of July 3 from 41.4% in the June 26 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged up to 7.8% in the July 3 week from 7.6% in the June 26 week.

The average size of a mortgage declined 0.4% w/w (+1.3% y/y) to $391,500 in the week ending July 3, after rising 1.1% w/w (0.4% y/y) to $393,200 in the week ending June 26. The average size of a purchase loan declined 1.0% w/w (+4.3% y/y) to $451,000 in the latest week, after rising 1.2% w/w (2.7% y/y) to $455,600 in the June 26 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage edged down 0.1% w/w (-3.9% y/y) to $304,600 in the week ending July 3, after rising 0.5% w/w (-2.8% y/y) to $304,900 in the June 26 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 1bp to 6.77%. 
- Average loan size edged down.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Retrenched in the July 3 Week

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**The Clash!**
The U.S.-Iranian clash in the Middle East resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that collapsed the economy watchers index in Japan earlier this year. However, as the war-like conditions settled down and the two sides have moved toward some kind of cease fire or a more permanent arrangement, in the wake of that comparative tranquility, the economy watchers index improved, and its future index improved more sharply. These comments applied to the data in the table and conditions up to the end of June.

**New day dawning...**
However, the data in the table are unrelated to what has happened in the past two days, when Iran took potshots at a couple of ships in the Strait, causing the U.S. to retaliate and President Trump to declare that the ceasefire has now ended. The door remains open for some kind of talks; however, the president’s recent remarks carried in the newspapers has clearly stated that the ceasefire has ended, and the U.S. intends to hit Iran and has suggested that it intends to hit it ‘hard.’ At the same time, Mr. Trump has said the door remains open to continuing talk and negotiations if both sides still want to get together; however, he admits he is not optimistic.

**Precarious times and conditions**
So, these are precarious conditions. Oil prices have already responded and moved higher. We have Japan’s economic data for June showing some revival in the current index and some sharply higher revivals over the last few months in the future index. However, when the dust clears the queue standings of the current and future indexes are revealed, they are pretty similar, with the current index at a standing of 29.6% and the future index of 31.6%. Both the current and future readings coalesce around a 30-percentile standing, marking the two segments of the survey as usually stronger about 70% of the time which marks the latest readings as relatively weak. And that is before we take the new realities of July into account.

**The current IS the future...**
There isn't too much point in talking about the two parts of the survey separately. The current and future surveys are simply not that different. This month, the lowest percentile standing in the current subindexes is housing, at an 11.5 percentile standing, followed by employment at a 17.8 percentile standing. In the future index, housing has an 11.1 percentile standing and employment has an 18.6 percentile standing; these readings are also the two lowest rankings in the future survey.

**Sequential improvement is only point-to-point**
Over three months, we can see the point-to-point changes in the current index and some improvements in all of the components except housing. In the future index, the three-month changes show point-to-point improvements in all of the components. However, both surveys show point-to-point declines over six months and broad point-to-point declines over 12 months as well. Looking at the changes based on smooth data (shown at the bottom of the table), for the three-month averages compared to six-month averages and six-month averages compared to 12-month averages, conditions show no improvement. We see no improvements in the current or future indexes over three months or six months, and no improvement in the future index in the 12-month average compared to 12-month average of 12 months ago—although 40% of the components in the current index are improved over 12 months compared to 12 months ago.

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**Summing up**
The bottom line here seems to be that the opening of the armed conflict in Iran that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was a terrible blow according to the economy watchers. However, once conditions settled down, the willingness to believe that conditions were going to get better and eventually open the Strait led to improved perceptions as things appeared to be headed back toward normal. Now, war-like conditions are back into effect for a period that's more recent than the tabular data can address. It seems likely that we are going to see the indexes decline once again if this current rupture in the normalization process is unable to be repaired soon. The responses and changes in the economy watchers index illustrate a couple of things: one, being that the Strait of Hormuz is very important; two, being that the survey participants were willing to believe that the former war participants could act in a civilized manner and reopen the Strait. The question now is whether the survey participants can believe that after one normalization agreement fell apart, the next agreement is one that they can believe in. That's what we will be waiting to see.

Japan

Economy Watchers Poll Marks Revival—Still Weak; What’s Next Now with a New Rift?

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened markedly to $77.6 billion in May from a downwardly revised $54.6 billion in April (previously -$55.9 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $78.6 billion. The goods deficit widened to $106.5 billion in May, the largest monthly shortfall since March 2025 when imports flooded in ahead of expected tariff increases, from a downwardly revised $82.9 billion in April (previously -$83.7 billion) while the services surplus widened to $28.9 billion in May from an upwardly revised $28.3 billion in April (previously +$27.8 billion).

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $100.0 billion (2017$) in May from an unrevised $84.3 billion in April. The April/May average is considerably higher than the Q1 average although some of this reflects a decline in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals that are not included in the calculation of GDP. Still, the May report implies that net exports will once again subtract from overall GDP growth in Q2. They subtracted 0.37%-point in Q1.

Exports of goods and services fell 3.2% m/m (+12.6% y/y) in May following an upwardly revised 3.0% monthly increase in April (previously +2.6% m/m). This was the first monthly decline in exports since last December. Goods exports (Census basis) slumped 5.3% m/m (+15.1% y/y) led by outsized declines in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals. In dollar terms, goods exports declined $11.6 billion in May. A $7.5 billion decline in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals accounted for 65% of that decline. However, exports of capital goods ex autos (-4.9% m/m) and nonfood consumer goods ex autos exports (-9.1% m/m) were also very weak. Service exports edged up 0.7% m/m (6.6% y/y) in May following a 0.1% monthly rise in April. Travel service exports rebounded 2.4% m/m in May after having declined in both March and April. Transport exports rose 1.1% m/m in May, their third consecutive monthly gain. Over the past three months, transport exports have increased 6.7%.

Imports of goods and services increased 3.3% m/m (13.3% y/y) in May for their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Over the four months to May, imports rose 11.7%. Goods imports (Census basis) jumped 4.0% m/m (15.3% y/y) in May after a 1.9% monthly gain in April. Imports rose in every major end-use category in May, led by a 10.3% m/m jump in “other” imports, a 6.3% m/m rise in auto imports, a 6.2% m/m increase in nonfood consumer goods imports ex autos, and a 5.8% m/m rise in industrial supplies imports. Service imports increased 0.3% m/m (5.1% y/y) in May, slowing from a 1.6% monthly gain in April. Performance varied meaningfully across end-use categories. Imports of insurance services rose 1.4% m/m, their sixth consecutive monthly rise. Imports of personal and recreational services increased 1.1% m/m in May. Imports of financial services rose 0.6% m/m. By contrast, imported maintenance and repairs services slumped 3.9% m/m, their second monthly decline in the past three months. Imported intellectual property fell 0.3% m/m, their fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Imports of transport services declined 0.4% m/m, their fourth monthly decrease in the past five months.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened to $14.5 billion in May from $12.0 billion in April. The trade deficit with the European Union widened to $9.3 billion in May from $7.2 billion in April. The trade deficit with Japan declined to $2.0 billion in May from $2.8 billion in April.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The deficit in goods and services widened to $77.6 billion in May from $54.6 billion in April.
- Exports slumped 3.2% m/m, led by an outsized fall in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals.
- Imports increased by 3.3% m/m with increases in each major end-use category.
- The goods deficit widened to $106.5 billion, while the services surplus widened to $28.9 billion.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened Markedly in May

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German industrial production in May rose by 0.9% after rising by 0.2% in April. Top-line growth for industrial production shows an increase of 0.1% over 12 months, a decline of 0.2% over six months, but a revival with growth at a 4% annual rate over three months. The revival was led by consumer goods output, which gained 1.2% in May after rising 2.2% in April. Consumer goods output is lower by 0.1% over 12 months, rises at a 2.6% annual rate over six months, and again at an 8.6% annual rate over three months, marking an acceleration over this three-period sequence. Capital goods, however, an important sector in the German economy, continued to be erratic in May. Capital goods output rose by 1.3% in May after falling by more than 1% in each of the two previous months. Capital goods output is lower by 2.8% over 12 months, falling at an 8.6% annual rate over six months, and that drop is trimmed to a 4.4% contraction over three months.

The output of consumer goods is pushing industry production higher, but the output of capital goods is pulling industrial production back lower. Intermediate goods, however, are showing growth and acceleration, despite falling by 0.4% in May after increases in each of the two previous months. Nevertheless, intermediate goods output is up by 1.1% over 12 months; it accelerates from a 1.9% annual rate over six months to a 6.4% annual rate over three months.

Focusing on manufacturing output alone, there was a gain in output of 0.8% in May and a gain of 0.3% in April. However, manufacturing output is still lower by 0.6% over 12 months and falls at a 2.3% annual rate over six months before recovering a 2.2% annual rate gain over three months; nothing in this sequence is an impressive performance.

Real manufacturing orders have been oscillating back and forth, rising by 1.9% in May after falling 3.2% in April. However, over 12 months, real orders for manufactured goods are up 6.3%; yet that same series falls at a 4% annual rate over six months and then rebounds to surge ahead at a 12.8% annual rate over three months. That's an erratic performance, but with a good ending trend. Real sales in manufacturing show gains in each of the last three months, including a 1.8% month-over-month increase in May. Real sales in manufacturing rise to a 4.2% annual rate over six months and 12 months and then accelerate to a 12.4% annual rate over three months. The performance of sales is encouraging and fits well at least with the three-month spurt in real manufacturing orders.

Indicators for the German economy show that the ZEW current index weakened to -77.8 in May from -73.7 in April. The IFO manufacturing index moved higher, with the May reading of 86.7 compared to 86.3 in April. Manufacturing expectations in the IFO framework, however, weakened to 87.7 in May from 88.2 in April. The EU Commission industrial index registered -15.6 in May after -14.5 in April, another sign of weakening. Two of these four indexes weakened sequentially, looking at the values from 12 months to six months to three months; improvements were seen in the ZEW current index and the EU Commission index on this timeline.

Looking at manufacturing IP output data from select other European countries, France and Spain showed slippage in May compared to April, while Portugal posted a gain in May after a decline in April. Over 12 months, six months, and three months, France shows period-to-period positive growth, but growth is not gaining momentum. Spain shows an increase of 0.4% in output over 12 months, with slippage over six months and a solid gain over three months. In Portugal, output acceleration is in gear, with a 2.2% decline over 12 months shifting to a 6.7% annual rate gain over six months and a 10.6% annual rate gain over three months.

On a quarter-to-date (QTD) basis, German industrial production is rising for all the major sectors except for capital goods. Manufacturing output is rising QTD, along with real manufacturing orders and real sales in manufacturing. The industrial surveys for Germany all weaken QTD. Industrial production shows QTD declines for France and Spain, while Portugal posts a gain.

The ranking of year-over-year growth rates, or, for indicators, the ranking of the level compared to the past back to 2006, shows mostly weak performance for German output. There is a stronger assessment for the intermediate goods with a year-over-year growth rate ranking above the 50% rank, putting it above its historic median. Demand indicators, however, as reflected in real manufacturing orders and real sales for manufactured goods, have rankings in the 70th percentile, showing some better life for demand—that could bode well for output in the future. The industrial indicators, however, are all weak and substantially weak compared to their historic levels back to 2006.

On balance, the manufacturing and industrial data as well as surveys as of May for Germany and Europe show mixed results. There are a few pockets of strength; one of the bright spots is demand, but supply has not consistently responded to it yet. The industrial surveys are uniformly weak and definitely not a bright spot. Overall, the results are not reassuring.

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German IP Marks Large Gain

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI edged down to 54.0 in June, the third m/m decline in four months, following a 0.9-point increase to 54.5 in May, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management, indicating expansion in the services sector for the 24th straight month, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The June index, while above 50.8 in June 2025 and a low of 49.4 in June 2024, remained below its recent high of 56.1 in February and a record-high 67.5 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 53.1, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had also expected 54.0 for June.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index slipped to 53.9 in June after a 0.9-point increase to 54.4 in May, signaling expansion for the 13th consecutive month but at a slightly slower rate. The latest reading was above 50.6 in June 2025 and a low of 49.3 in June 2024, while remaining below a record-high 66.7 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index fell to 55.4 in June following a 1.8-point rise to 57.7 in May, indicating continued expansion in business activity for 24 months in a row, though at the slowest pace since March. The index was above a low of 50.0 in June 2024 but below a peak of 70.9 in November 2021. In June, 24.3% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity while 14.5% reported an activity decline. The new orders index decreased to 55.1 in June after a 3.8-point gain to 57.3 in May, reflecting expansion in new orders for the 13th successive month but at a slower pace. The index was above a low of 47.2 in May 2025 but below a high of 61.0 in February 2023 and a record-high 69.2 in October 2021. In June, 25.9% of respondents (NSA) reported higher new orders while 17.1% reported declines. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) fell to 54.4 in June from 55.2 in May, indicating slower supplier delivery performance for the 19th straight month after one month in faster territory in November 2024.

On the labor front, the employment index recovered to 51.2 in June from 47.9 in May, showing employment activity in the services sector expanded for the first time since February. The latest reading was above a low of 43.5 in December 2023 but below a high of 54.1 in June 2023 and a peak of 58.9 in April 2021. An increased 16.0% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment in June while 10.9% reported declines.

On the inflation front, the prices index fell to a still-elevated 67.7 in June from 71.3 in May, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017 but at the slowest rising pace in four months. The index was above a low of 53.9 in March 2024 but significantly below a peak of 83.7 in March 2022. In June, 40.7% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices while only 3.8% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index edged up to 50.4 in June from a neutral 50.0 in May, showing new export orders expanded for the fourth time in five months, while the imports index fell to 49.4 from 51.1, marking the first contraction since January. The inventories index dropped to 51.2 in June from 62.5 in May (the highest level since May 2010), indicating inventories expanded for the fifth successive month. The inventory sentiment index fell to 52.6 in June from 55.2 in May, showing continued expansion since May 2023. The backlog of orders index rebounded to 54.9 in June from 51.3 in May, registering the fifth consecutive month of expansion following 11 straight months of contraction. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Services PMI down to 54.0 in June, remaining above the 12-month avg. of 53.1.
- Business Activity (55.4) expands for the 24th consecutive mth.; New Orders (55.1) for the 13th straight mth.; Employment (51.2, first expansion since Feb.); Supplier Deliveries (54.4 vs. 55.2).
- Prices Index (67.7) at a four-month low, still indicating prices rising since June ’17.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Eases in June, Still Indicating Expansion for the 24th Straight Month

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The global PMI data for a select group of 24 countries and their composites, provided on the graph, indicate a slight overall improvement for the total PMIs in June, with the service sector getting slightly stronger as the manufacturing sector is slightly weaker.

Conditions, however, remain uneven. The overall average for the PMI composite in June moved up to 51.4 from 50.7 in May, but the May reading had fallen from 51 in April. The median rose to 50.8 in June from 50.2 in May, but it had been at 51.2 in April. There continues to be a great deal of weakness and irregularity in the progression of the global economy—not surprisingly with the recent data coming during the period when oil prices had surged in the Strait of Hormuz had been closed. We now are seeing different conditions in force, and we'll see how much improvement occurs in July if the current global situation remains improved.

In June, nine of twenty-four reporters had PMI readings below 50, indicating contraction in economic activity. In May, there had been ten such reporters, while in April there had been nine. These readings, of course, are less than half of the reporters; however, it's still a very large proportion of the reporters where the total PMI gauges are indicating economic contraction. Over three months, there are nine reporters with average readings below 50; over six months, there are only seven; and over 12 months, there are six. This progression tells us that the situation has been getting worse rather than better.

Based on monthly data, the European Monetary Union, Germany, France, Russia, Egypt, and Qatar each recorded three consecutive months of readings below 50, indicating contraction in each of those months. Sequentially, over 12 months, six months, and three months, only France, Russia, Ghana, Egypt, and Qatar show consistent readings that average below 50 (based on raw data).

The queue standings of the levels reported by countries in June show only seven with standings above the 50th percentile; this means there are only seven countries whose PMIs in June are higher than their average back to January 2022. Not surprisingly with the recent events really focused on oil prices and the situation in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, some of the weakest ranking readings are coming from oil producers in the Middle East such as Qatar (6.1%), the UAE (1.5%), Saudi Arabia (6.1%), and Egypt (18.2%). Clearly, the interruption of the oil flow and war damage has had an outsized impact on these data.

However, quite apart from the current situation and the closure of the Strait, if we calculate the average PMI standing rather than the ranking just the average of the PMI total sector ranking, there are four countries that have averaged readings below 50 based on monthly data back to January 2022. Those countries are France, Zambia, Egypt, and Kenya. The average readings across all countries back to January 2022 is a reading of 52.3. The highest ranking during this previous period is from India; its ranking is at 58.1. Ironically, some of the strongest readings in the earlier period come from oil producers whose current rankings are so low such as Saudi Arabia at 56.6, the UAE at 54.6, and Qatar at 53.4.

There has been upward momentum this month, particularly in services, while manufacturing backtracked. However, the trend to improve conditions is no longer so clear. What is clear is that the outlook is going to depend upon whatever peace agreement proves durable involving Iran and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This conclusion is not rocket-science; it is obvious. And it's going to take close-watching because there have been so many missteps around alleged ceasefires and treaty discussions that we can't be very sure about what's going to play out in the future and what will last.

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Globally S&P PMIs Gain a Modicum of Traction

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 97.4 in June, the highest level since February, after a 0.6-point decline to 95.3 in May, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. The index was slightly below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the fourth consecutive month and down from a peak of 105.1 in December 2024, albeit above a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Seven of the 10 index components rose, while three fell. Meanwhile, the NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index edged down to 89 in June following a three-point increase to 91 in May, remaining well above its historical average of 68. The index was below its record high of 110 in October 2024 but above its recent low of 84 in December 2025 and a low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the 20th straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve advanced to 13% in June, a four-month high, following a one-point decline to 3% in May; these readings were far below a high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales climbed to a net 9% in June, a five-month high, from 1% in May; the latest figure was below a high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -4% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -5% in May and marking the highest reading in four months; the latest result remained above a low of -20% in October 2024 but below the recent positive reading of 1% in February and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business inched up to 8% in June from 7% in May and April; the latest figure was down from a high of 20% in December 2024 but up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays rebounded to 20% in June from 16% in May; these numbers were still below a high of 28% in November 2024 and a peak of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions slipped to -5% in June, a three-month low, from -3% in May; this result was slightly below a high of -2% in December 2024 but above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net 0% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in June, up from -4% in May and matching the highest reading since August 2025 (also 0%); the positive reading of 1% was recorded in May 2025.

On the labor front, 51% of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in June, up from 46% in May and registering the highest level since September 2024. These numbers were above a low of 43% in August 2025 but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 11% planned to increase employment in June, up from 9% in May; it matched a low of 11% in March 2024 but remained below its recent high of 19% in November 2025 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 32% reported positions not able to be filled in June, up from 29% in May (the lowest level since May 2020); these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure fell to -20% in June, the lowest level in three months, following a four-point increase to -15% in May. These readings were below the most recent high of -14% in February and a high of -5% in June 2021 but above a low of -37% in August 2024,

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices rose to 38% in June, the highest reading since February 2023, after a six-point increase to 36% in May. The latest reading was up from a low of 20% in August 2024 but well below a peak of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices eased to a still-elevated 32% in June following a seven-point rise to 34% in May (the highest level since November 2023); these readings remained above a low of 21% in April 2023.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the June survey. A net 28% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, down from 31% in May and marking the lowest since November 2025. It was also below a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 17% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, slightly down from 18% in May and matching the lowest reading since July 2025; this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

Inflation was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 21% of NFIB members in June, up from 18% in May and representing the highest since October 2024; these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Taxes ranked second as the next most important problem (alongside labor quality), as reported by 19% of respondents in June, unchanged from May. Labor quality also remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 19% of respondents in June—the highest since December—compared with 13% in May (the lowest level since December 2016). Other concerns (in June vs. May) included labor costs (8% vs. 14%), government requirements (8% vs. 10%), insurance cost/availability (8% vs. 8%), poor sales (7% vs. 7%), and competition from large businesses (5% vs. 6%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- Uncertainty Idx down 2 pts. to 89, remaining well above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy up 10 pts. to 13%, a four-month high.
- Expected real sales up 8 pts. to 9%, a five-month high.
- Plans to expand business up 1 pt. to 8%, highest in three mths.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices up 2 pts. to 38%, highest since Feb. ’23.
- Top three business concerns: inflation (21%), taxes (19%), and labor quality (19%).

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Rebounds in June to a Four-Month High

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**ENERGY** → Country-Sourced Statistics → **Ecuador** → Daily Oil Production

A daily crude oil production series for Ecuador was added to the **ENERGY** database. This series, reported in barrels, provides insights into oil production in Ecuador at least two months sooner than monthly series available from other sources. The series is sourced from the Central Bank of Ecuador and starts in January 2018.

Chart: Since 2019, Ecuador's downward trend in daily oil production has been driven by the natural decline of mature fields, severe infrastructure outages, escalating hydrocarbon theft, and political and environmental mandates. From mid-2019 to the present, daily oil production has decreased by 19.2%. 2026 year-to-date production is down by approximately 2% compared to 2025. These declines are destabilizing Ecuador’s economy by shrinking government revenues, blowing out the fiscal deficit, and worsening the public debt.

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**EMERGECW** → **Georgia** → Public Finance and Debt → External Public Debt

External public debt statistics for Georgia were added to **EMERGECW**. Government and national bank external debt is available in USD and Georgian Lari along with accrued interest. Government debt is further broken out by multilateral, bilateral, and bonds with detail by creditor. These monthly data are sourced from the Georgia Ministry of Finance and start as early as 2003.

Chart: Georgia's external debt has grown by 59% since 2020. Multi- and bilateral external debt increased 72.6% and 45.9%, respectively during that horizon. Debt growth was initially driven by emergency borrowing during the pandemic followed by extensive government borrowing to fund large-scale infrastructure projects such as the modernization of highways and tunnels. Despite this absolute increase, strong GDP growth has kept the relative debt-to-GDP ratio manageable and stabilized the country's sovereign credit rating which is currently BB from Fitch.

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Featured Data Additions, July 8, 2026

Michael J. Moran

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- The energy component retraced a portion of its surge in the prior three months.
- Prices excluding food and energy provided a surprise by posting a rare decline.

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