Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Andrew Cates

**Positive Growth Surprises, Negative Inflation Surprises—For Now**
The global macro backdrop heading into the latest Middle East shock was, by recent standards, relatively constructive. As the chart shows, growth data had been consistently surprising to the upside, while inflation surprises have been in negative territory—an unusually benign combination suggesting resilient activity alongside easing price pressures. What is striking, however, is that—at least through March and into early April—this pattern has not yet been meaningfully dislodged. For now, the data flow still reflects a world that was stabilising rather than deteriorating. That said, this is almost certainly a lagging signal. Supply-side shocks of this nature—particularly those centred on energy—tend to work with a delay but can be highly disruptive once they feed through. The risk, therefore, is that the current “goldilocks” surprise dynamic proves short-lived as higher energy costs, supply chain frictions and rising uncertainty begin to reshape the incoming data in the weeks ahead.

260409Z1.jpg

**Monetary Policy Expectations Shift as Easing Bets Are Repriced**
How policymakers respond to the evolving situation in the Middle East will be critical in shaping both market dynamics and the broader global outlook. This chart, based on the latest April Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey, suggests that expectations are already beginning to shift. Forecasters are now less inclined to anticipate policy easing in the period ahead—particularly in the euro area, where expectations for rate cuts have been scaled back. Similarly, some of the easing previously priced for the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England has been pared back over the next 12 months. While this is not yet a full pivot toward tightening, it does point to a more cautious policy backdrop, reflecting the risk that renewed energy-driven inflation pressures could constrain central banks’ ability to support growth.

260409Z2.jpg

**Delay, Don’t Tighten: Central Banks’ Likely Playbook**
If the previous chart highlights a shift in policy expectations, this one gives a clearer sense of the reaction function underpinning it. When asked how central banks would respond if energy-driven inflation proves more persistent, most panellists point not to renewed tightening, but to a more cautious delay in easing. In other words, the hurdle for rate cuts has risen, even if the bar for  hikes remains relatively high. This distinction matters. It suggests that policymakers are likely to treat the shock as a supply-driven inflation impulse—one that complicates the outlook but does not automatically warrant aggressive tightening. At the same time, the responses underscore a second important theme: divergence. A sizeable share of forecasters expect policy paths to vary significantly across regions, reflecting differences in energy exposure, inflation dynamics and domestic growth conditions. Taken together, the message is one of constrained flexibility. Central banks may want to support growth, but persistent energy pressures could keep them on hold for longer than previously anticipated—reinforcing the more cautious policy outlook already evident in market pricing.

260409Z3.jpg

**Markets Signal Fiscal Concern, Not Inflation Panic**
If central banks are likely to proceed cautiously, financial markets are already beginning to draw their own conclusions. This chart shows that the recent adjustment in US Treasury markets has been driven primarily by a rise in real yields rather than a meaningful increase in inflation expectations. In other words, markets are not yet pricing a loss of monetary policy credibility or a sharp unanchoring of inflation expectations. Instead, the move points more toward concerns around the broader policy mix—particularly the fiscal backdrop and the potential for increased borrowing needs in an environment of heightened geopolitical risk. This distinction is important. A rise in inflation expectations would suggest fears of central banks falling behind the curve. What we are seeing instead is a repricing of real rates, consistent with tighter financial conditions and a higher risk premium. For now, at least, markets appear to view the shock less as a classic inflation spiral and more as a development that complicates the growth outlook and places greater strain on policy frameworks—especially on the fiscal side.

260409Z4.jpg

**Electricity Prices Reflect Energy Dependence**
The initial response in electricity markets since the Middle East disruption has followed a familiar pattern. Economies with greater domestic energy capacity—such as Scandinavia and, to a lesser extent, the US—have seen relatively contained electricity prices. By contrast, those more reliant on imported energy—most notably the UK and parts of Europe—continue to face significantly higher costs

260409Z5.jpg

**Generation Capacity Determines Energy Resilience**
These price dynamics are closely linked to underlying differences in electricity generation capacity. As the sixth chart shows, countries with higher per capita electricity production—again including Scandinavia and the US—are structurally better positioned to absorb external shocks. In contrast, economies with more limited domestic generation capacity, such as the UK and Germany, are inherently more exposed to fluctuations in global energy markets. This structural divide is likely to prove increasingly important in the period ahead, influencing not just near-term inflation outcomes but also the relative resilience of growth across economies as energy costs remain volatile.

260409Z6.jpg

Amid further tentative signs of de-escalation—most notably President Trump’s decision on April 7th to step back from further escalation—financial markets have stabilised somewhat, but the macroeconomic implications of the Middle East crisis remain highly uncertain. As our charts show, the global economy entered this shock from a position of relative strength, with positive growth surprises and easing inflation pressures still evident in the data (chart 1). However, that benign backdrop now looks vulnerable. Central banks are already reassessing the outlook, with expectations for policy easing being pared back (chart 2) and a growing consensus that any response to persistent energy-driven inflation will likely involve delaying cuts rather than tightening aggressively—albeit with significant regional divergence (chart 3). Financial markets, for their part, are not yet signalling a loss of inflation control, but the rise in real yields suggests increasing concern around the broader policy mix, particularly fiscal pressures (chart 4). Finally, the adjustment to the shock is unlikely to be uniform. Structural differences in domestic energy capacity are already driving wide divergences in electricity prices, leaving more import-dependent economies exposed to higher costs and sharper trade-offs between growth and inflation (charts 5 and 6). Taken together, the message is clear: even if geopolitical tensions ease, the economic aftershocks are likely to be uneven, persistent and increasingly shaped by structural constraints.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/4qBjHX7OmdXmxVN2oRe1nB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: From Oil Shock to Policy Dilemma

Michael J. Moran

260409A.jpg

260409B.jpg

This monthly report is always packed with information relating to the household sector. At this time, most observers will probably be most interested in price developments, and the results for February were a bit unsettling. The headline price index rose 0.4%, influenced by a jump of 0.8% in energy prices. This increase was largely anticipated and not especially troubling when viewed in isolation. Energy prices have shown little net change in the past two years, and the latest reading of the index was comfortably within the recent range of observations. However, given developments in the Middle East, energy prices undoubtedly will surge out of that recent range in the months ahead.

Core PCE prices also rose 0.4%, a touch firmer than the expected increase of 0.3%. An increase of 0.4% in core inflation is a quick pace even when viewed in Isolation, but this advance followed a similar increase in January, and the December reading almost rounded to 0.4%. These recent changes pulled the year-over-year increase in core prices to 3.0%, a full percentage point above the Federal Reserve’s target.

Nominal personal income dipped 0.1% in February, which translated to a decline of 0.4% after adjusting for inflation (almost rounding to -0.5%). The softness is striking, but a review of the detail suggests that special factors played a role. Much of the weakness reflected a decline of 1.7% in dividend income, which followed a jump of 1.9% in January. Dividend payments in the prior two years followed the same pattern, leaving one to suspect that seasonal adjustment has gone awry. Government transfer payments also declined, with the miscellaneous category accounting for most of the drop. Medicaid payments also fell, marking the fifth consecutive decline, most likely driven by the tightening of provisions included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Nominal consumer expenditures rose 0.5%, a seemingly strong result, but the change amounted to only 0.1% in real terms. The small increase followed a flat reading in January and increases of only 0.1% in November and December. Consumers spent actively in the second and third quarters of last year, but they have become cautious recently. The data in hand suggest real outlay growth of approximately 1.0% in the first quarter, slower than the average pace of 3.0% in the middle of last year and 1.9% in 2025-Q4.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

260409C.jpg

260409D.jpg

- The energy component contributed to a high-side reading on the price index for personal consumption expenditures; the core component was firm as well.
- Consumer spending showed signs of slowing.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices: Higher Prices Dampen Real Gains

Sandy Batten

260409N1.jpg

260409C1.jpg

The third estimate of Q4 2025 GDP showed that real GDP growth slowed to 0.5% q/q saar versus 0.7% in the second estimate and 1.4% in the advance estimate. GDP had grown 4.4% in Q3. The more than one-month long shutdown of the federal government continued to have been a notable restraint on GDP growth in Q4, subtracting 1.0%-point from overall growth, the same as in the second estimate.

Revisions were very small across major expenditure categories. Growth of personal consumption expenditures was revised down slightly to 1.9% q/q saar from 2.0% previously. Nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.4%, up slightly from the 2.2% reported in the second estimate. The 0.5% q/q decline previously reported for residential investment was revised to a larger decline of 1.7%, subtracting 0.1%-point from overall growth versus 0.0%-point in the previous estimate. Inventories declined more than previously estimated, reducing their contribution to growth from 0.3%-point in the second estimate to 0.1%-point in today’s estimate.

260409O1.jpg

260409P1.jpg

There were slight downward revisions to the declines previously reported for both exports and imports, leaving net exports essentially unrevised. As already noted, a 16.6% q/q saar plunge in federal government spending (revised down slightly from -16.7%) accounted for most of the weakness in Q4. This included a 24.3% q/q collapse in nondefense spending, the second largest quarterly decline in nearly forty years. By contrast, state and local government spending increased 1.5%, revised up from 1.2% in the previous estimate.

Private domestic demand growth (final sales to private domestic purchasers, a favored gauge of demand by the Federal Reserve) was revised slower to 1.8% q/q saar in Q4 from 1.9% in the second estimate and 2.4% in the advance report. However, even the revised pace of growth is respectable and close to the economy’s potential growth rate.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

260409Q1.jpg

260409S1.jpg

- Q4 GDP growth revised to 0.5% q/q saar from 0.7% in the first revision and 1.4% in the advance report.
- The shutdown of the federal government still played a critical role in the slowdown, subtracting 1.0%-point from Q4 growth.
- Domestic demand slowed further with final sales to private domestic purchasers revised down to 1.8% from 1.9% in the first revision and 2.4% in the advance report.

U.S. Q4 2025 Real GDP Growth Revised Slower

Robert Brusca

260409E.jpg

Germany’s industrial production slipped in February, driven lower by dropping output of consumer goods. Sequential growth rates over 12 months, six months, and three months show a confusing array of patterns, except for intermediate goods, where annualized growth rates for output sequentially weaken and show declines on each horizon. All German sector growth rates for the quarter-to-date are showing declines, and the growth rankings by sector are below 50% across the broad, indicating below median performance across German sectors.  It’s a very unimpressive report.

Real manufacturing orders rose modestly in February against the backdrop of a very sharp drop in January. Real manufacturing sales have been erratic.

German output and industrial gauges, ranked on annual sales growth against historic norms, have been very weak. Only real orders post a standing above 50%, which represents the median.
 
France, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, and Norway provide some perspective on European growth. The northern European non-EMU member countries are much stronger than the EMU reporters, two of which have standings below their median levels (rankings below 50).

260409.jpg

Germany

German IP Is Weak in February

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260408A0.jpg

260408B0.jpg

Mortgage applications declined 0.8% w/w (-5.6% y/y) in the week ending April 3. The weekly decline eased relative to the prior three weeks, when mortgage applications dropped by 10.4% w/w (+14.2% y/y) in the week ending March 27, and by 10.5% and 10.9% in the March 20 and 13 weeks, respectively, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 1.1% w/w (-6.7% y/y) in the April 3 week, after declining 2.6% w/w (+0.8% y/y) in the week ending March 27.  Applications for loan refinancing dropped by a smaller 2.8% w/w (-4.3% y/y) in the latest week, following weekly declines of 17.3% (+33.2% y/y) in the March 27 week, 14.6% in the March 20 week, and of 18.5% in the week ending March 13.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan declined 8bps to 6.68% in the week ending April 3 from 6.76% in the week ending March 27 and after having risen by 52bps since the February 27 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 1bp to 6.09% in the latest week from 6.08% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate declined 6bps to 6.65% in the week ending April 3 from 6.71% in the March 27 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM eased 3bps to 5.85% in the latest week from 5.88% in the week ending March 27.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan declined to 44.3% of total applications in the week of April 3, from 45.3% in the March 27 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.6% in the week ending April 3 from 8.0% in the week ending March 27.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged up 0.2% w/w (-9.1% y/y) to $390,100 in the week ending April 3, after declining 1.3% w/w (-1.9% y/y) to $389,200 in the week ending March 27. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.3% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $448,100 in the latest week, following a decline of 0.8% w/w (+0.4% y/y) to $449,400 in the March 27 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage edged up 0.1% w/w (-20.7% y/y) to $317,000 in the week ending April 3 after declining 5.5% w/w (+0.3% y/y) to $316,600 in the March 27 week. From the week ending February 27 to the week ending March 27, the average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage had declined 21.8%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Signs of stabilization in mortgage applications emerged in the latest week.
- Applications for loans to purchase posted a small increase, while applications for loan refinancing posted a small decline in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans eased 8bps to 6.68%. 
- Average loan size edged up.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Down in the April 3 Week

260408E.jpg

**Chaotic trends**
Producer price trends for the European Monetary Union in February show great deal of weakness. The headline measure in February for total PPI prices (excluding construction) fell 0.5% after rising 0.5% in January. The three-month annualized change was -1.3%, over six months it was -0.7%, and year-over-year it was -3.1%. The trend is not particularly conclusive although the table also produces the trend for the HICP-core on the same timeline where there is acceleration in train. Despite this report and any trends, it may show that the risk to inflation in the PPI is now through elevated Brent crude prices, which we see in the chart has been historically well correlated with changes in the PPI.

**The past may not be prologue**
The chart offers some insight into this matter as we see that recently the spike in Brent crude is substantial—and the chart doesn't even take us up-to-date to what we're dealing with in the markets today! We can see that in 2021 when all prices went up sharply, that preceded a spike in the PPI as well. However, in 2017 when there was a short-lived spike, there wasn't much impact on producer prices at all. Then, later in 2018, when prices spiked not quite so high or suddenly, but had a bit more sustained growth, there also was a very small knock-on impact on producer prices. One of the key features for whether the Brent rise gets into producer prices or not is how long-lived the spike remains in force and how people perceive it. In this case, there's closing of the Strait of Hormuz and a war in place; there's a good chance that investors are going to treat this as a real event and one with potential longevity. That means that this spike will elevate producer prices.

**Overall PPI is tempered but, by country...not so much**
However, the table is based on data through February, and so oil spiking prices really haven't entered the picture as far as the table is concerned. On that basis, we're seeing a lot of price declines: an annualized three-month decline of 7.9% in Spain, 7.3% in Portugal, 3.6% in Germany, and so on. These figures clearly do not reflect what will be the lasting effect on oil prices as we get deeper into 2026. Even despite this weakness in headline inflation across countries in the monetary union, and in Europe generally, inflation is tempered year-over-year where it only rises compared to a year earlier for 7.7% of the reporters, but then over six months inflation accelerates for all of the reporters compared to its 12-month pace, and then, over three months it accelerates for about 70% of the reporters compared to the six-month pace.

**PPI headline vs. core... where available**
There are two observations at the bottom of the table for the PPI excluding energy—for France and Germany. In both cases, the difference between the excluding energy price and the headline price is remarkable. For Germany, the ex-energy price is rising and clearly accelerating; in contrast, the headline trends show prices declining or a tendency toward deceleration. For France, the ex-energy prices are rising and sustaining larger increases over six months and three months than over 12 months. However, for France, in the table, the total PPI headline inflation rate declines on all horizons although the pace of decline is undergoing erosion. Once we set aside the weighting scheme for the monetary union, the PPI is looking instead at the average result of the countries in the table (an average that includes some non-monetary union members) where the inflation rate is clearly headed higher, not lower.

260408.jpg

**The trend and the future**
Despite the controversies implicit in these data, at its last meeting the European Central Bank put markets on notice that, if the war were still ongoing, there was a high likelihood that the ECB would raise interest rates at its next meeting. It's easy to see why since the inflation picture isn't particularly glowing. Even before the new oil price impact is factored in, there is evidence of acceleration in producer prices.

**War! And price trends**
War creates a lot of uncertainty. In addition to oil prices, there are going to be knock-on effects for weakness across the global economy and also a tendency for oil prices to spread increases since the oil price increase is high enough that it's likely to have a significant impact on transportation costs for all goods. Central banks are clearly going to be on notice and wary. Even so, it's also true that spiking oil prices, even if they spread inflation, tend to spread economic weakness. Policymaking in 2026 is going to be far more contentious and difficult than it was in 2025, everywhere globally.

Europe

EMU PPI Trends Are Chaotic; It Could Get Worse

Winnie Tapasanun

260407V35.jpg

260407W35.jpg

New orders for durable goods fell a more-than-expected 1.4% m/m in February, the fourth monthly fall in five months, after decreases of 0.5% in January (0.0% initially) and 0.9% in December (unrevised), according to today’s advance report by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 1.0% m/m February decline. The year-on-year rate eased to 7.3% in February, the lowest since October, from 9.9% in January, though remaining positive since January 2025. Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.8% (6.0% y/y) in February, the 10th straight m/m rise, after a 0.3% increase in January. Durable goods orders excluding defense fell 1.2% (+7.3% y/y) following a 0.2% January rebound.

The m/m fall in February durable goods orders was led by a 28.6% m/m plunge in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts following decreases of 1.7% in January and 22.7% in December. Orders for defense aircraft & parts fell 3.8% after a 27.2% January slump and an 11.8% December jump. Orders excluding aircraft rose 1.2% (6.6% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, after a 0.3% January increase.

Durable goods orders for transportation fell 5.4% (+10.1% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 1.9% decline in January. In addition to February m/m drops in nondefense and defense aircraft orders, motor vehicles & parts orders rose 3.1% (7.6% y/y), the third consecutive m/m rise, after a 0.7% January gain. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components slipped 0.1% (+5.0% y/y) following a 1.0% January decline, while orders for primary metals advanced 2.2% (10.2% y/y), the third successive m/m increase, after a 1.1% January rise. Machinery orders climbed 1.5% (9.2% y/y), the 10th straight m/m gain, on top of a 0.6% January increase. Orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.5% (5.4% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a flat January reading. Orders for all other durable goods rose 0.5% (1.3% y/y), up for the sixth consecutive month, after a 0.3% January rise. Meanwhile, orders for computers & electronic products were essentially unchanged (+7.5% y/y) after five straight m/m gains.

Capital goods orders fell 6.6% (+11.5% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 3.0% drop in January. Nondefense capital goods orders slid 7.4% (+9.5% y/y), the fifth m/m slide in six months, after a 1.0% January decrease. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) rebounded 0.6% (5.1% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a 0.4% January decline. Defense capital goods orders fell 1.1% (+25.1% y/y), down for the fourth time in five months, after a 14.2% January drop. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—rose 0.9% (5.7% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, after no change in January.

Shipments of all manufactured goods advanced 1.4% (3.5% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.7% increase in January. Durable goods shipments rose 1.3% (6.8% y/y), up for the fifth time in six months, after a 0.9% January gain. Nondurable goods shipments climbed 1.4% (0.1% y/y), the third straight m/m rise, after a 0.5% January increase.

Unfilled orders of durable goods edged up 0.1% (11.1% y/y) in February, the seventh straight m/m gain, after a 0.6% rise in January. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y), also up for the seventh consecutive month, following a 0.3% January rise.

Manufacturing inventories inched up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in February, the fourth straight m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in January. Durable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in February, the fifth consecutive m/m increase, after a 0.2% rise in January, while nondurable goods inventories were virtually unchanged (-0.8% y/y) following two successive m/m declines.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260407X35.jpg

260407Y35.jpg

- Headline orders -1.4% (+7.3% y/y) in Feb., fourth m/m decline in five mths.
- Nondefense aircraft & parts -28.6% m/m following January’s -1.7%.
- Transportation orders -5.4%, down for the fourth time in five mths.; orders ex transportation +0.8%, 10th straight m/m rise.
- Core capital goods shipments +0.9%, fifth m/m gain in six mths.
- Durable goods shipments +1.3%; unfilled orders +0.1%; inventories +0.1%.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall in February, Led by a Plunge in Nondefense Aircraft Orders

260407E.jpg

The S&P composite PMIs in March weakened decisively across the board, with only four of 25 reporters showing an improvement in March compared to February. February had been a strong month, with only 10 of 25 monthly composite indicators weaker on a month-to-month basis. In January, 11 of the composite indicators weakened month-to-month. So, between January and March, the proportion of countries showing composite indicators as weaker month-to-month went up from 40% to 44% and then all the way up to 80%, a huge shift for the worse.

**Sequential trends**
Sequentially, looking at 12-months compared to 12-months ago, six-months compared to 12-months, and three-months compared to six-months, we see a similar progression. Over 12 months, 43.5% of the reporters were weaker; over six months, 39.1% of them were weaker period-to-period. And then over three months, that proportion jumped to 65.2% that were weaker month-to-month.

The war in Iran has been reflected in these numbers. We see it very clearly for the March data, the first full month after the attack. The average and median total PMI readings deteriorated from February to March: the average readings fell from 52.6 in February to 50.7 in March, and the median readings fell from 52.1 to 51.4.

The number of reporters with PMI values below 50, indicating contraction, jumped to 9 in March from 4 in February and 5 in January.

The data show that there has been broad weakening among these reporters. In addition, there has been a sharp rise in the number of them reporting outright economic contraction. The composite indexes are showing not just weakness month-to-month, but actual stepped-up contraction.

The queue percentile standings are also substantially degraded, with only eight of the 25 queue metrics that are reported above their historic medians on data back to January 2022. And the countries that are reporting good performance are often very small countries. Ghana and Zambia show very strong queue percentile standings. Sweden shows a high percentile standing. However, Japan and Hong Kong also show percentile standings in their 90th percentile, and Germany's standing has gotten to its 70th percentile. However, if oil prices climb and shortages in a variety of supply chains begin to be impacted because of the lack of oil, and in some cases, fertilizer and other commodities, we are going to start to see weakness spread.

In some developing countries, there's already a more generalized economic weakness being caused by fuel rationing because prices are so high. If the Strait of Hormuz is not open soon, these conditions are going to get demonstrably worse. Even though the U.S. economy has done relatively well and is unaffected by oil supply shortages—although prices in the U.S. certainly have risen—the U.S. composite PMI index has only a 19.6 percentile standing, not a terribly good place to say that the economy is largely unaffected by these events. The U.S. composite PMI has fallen for two months in a row.

Not surprisingly, three countries have reported the lowest composite PMI readings since 2022 when these rankings began. They are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, all of whom are in the middle of this Middle East conflict.

The European Monetary Union posted a queue standing above its 50th percentile, at 54.9. And its diffusion reading on the month at 50.5 is similar to the U.S. at 50.3, indicating that economic activity is still expanding in the community—but barely. Both France and Italy logged composite PMI readings below 50; France has generated three sub-50 diffusion readings in a row, and in addition, three more of them sequentially over three months, six months, and 12 months. The queue standings may overstate the case for resiliency in some instances. There was plenty of weakness to go around across economies in March.

260407.jpg

Composite PMIs Retreat Broadly

large_260413F44.jpg

medium_260413F44.jpg

small_260413F44.jpg

thumbnail_260413F44.jpg

260413F44.jpg

large_260413G44.jpg

medium_260413G44.jpg

small_260413G44.jpg

thumbnail_260413G44.jpg

260413G44.jpg

Existing home sales fell 3.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) to 3.98 million units (SAAR) in March, the lowest level since June 2025, following a 2.7% rebound to 4.13 million in February (previously +1.7%; 4.09 mil.), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected March sales of 4.08 million units. Sales remained 38.1% below a high of 6.43 million in January 2022 and 39.7% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The March fall coincided with an increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a three-month-high 6.18% in March after declining to 6.05% in February, according to Freddie Mac. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales fell 3.5% (-0.3% y/y) to 3.63 million units in March, the second m/m fall in three months and the weakest reading since June 2025, after a 3.3% increase to 3.76 million in February. Sales of condos and co-ops slid 5.4% (-7.9% y/y) to 350,000, the fourth m/m slide in five months and the lowest level since May 2020, on top of a 2.6% February fall to 370,000.

By region, March existing home sales declined m/m across all major regions. Sales in the Northeast dropped 8.5% (-12.2% y/y) to 430,000 in March after a 6.0% decrease in February, marking the third consecutive m/m fall and a record low. Sales in the Midwest fell 4.2% (-3.2% y/y) to 920,000, the lowest reading since September 2024, reversing a 3.2% February increase. Sales in the South slid 3.1% (+2.2% y/y) to 1.86 million after a 3.2% February rise. Sales in the West fell 1.3% (+1.3% y/y) to 770,000 following a 6.8% February rebound. The Midwest, South, and West each posted the second m/m decline in three months. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 46.7% of total U.S. existing home sales.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 2.7% (1.4% y/y) to $408,800 in March, the highest since November, following a 0.8% increase to $398,000 in February (unrevised) and three successive m/m declines. Prices were 5.5% below a high of $432,700 in June 2025 but 13.3% above a low of $360,800 in January 2023. The median price of an existing single-family home grew 2.5% (1.3% y/y) to $412,400 in March, the highest since November, after a 1.0% rebound to $402,300 in February. The median price of condos and co-ops, up for the third time in four months, climbed 4.8% (2.3% y/y) to $371,500, the highest since June 2025, following a 2.9% February drop to $354,400. Regionally, overall prices rose m/m in March in the Midwest (+3.8%; +4.9% y/y), Northeast (+3.5%; +5.7% y/y), West (+2.7%; -1.3% y/y), and South (+1.7%; +0.8% y/y).

Inventories of homes for sale increased for the third consecutive in March. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 3.0% (2.3% y/y) to 1.36 million units, the highest level since November, following a 4.8% February rise to 1.32 million. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) rose to 4.1 months, the highest in four months, after holding at 3.8 months in February and January. The recent high of 4.6 months was in August 2025, while a record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_260413H44.jpg

medium_260413H44.jpg

small_260413H44.jpg

thumbnail_260413H44.jpg

260413H44.jpg

large_260413I44.jpg

medium_260413I44.jpg

small_260413I44.jpg

thumbnail_260413I44.jpg

260413I44.jpg

- March sales -3.6% m/m to lower-than-expected 3.98 mil.; -1.0% y/y, fifth straight y/y decrease.
- Broad-based regional m/m declines: Northeast (-8.5%), Midwest (-4.2%), South (-3.1%), West (-1.3%); y/y sales up in the South and West but down in the Northeast and Midwest.
- Median sales price +2.7% (+1.4% y/y) to $408,800, highest since November.
- Unsold inventory +3.0% (+2.3% y/y) to four-month-high 1.36 mil. units; 4.1 months' supply.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Drop in March to a Nine-Month Low

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Existing Home Sales Drop in March to a Nine-Month Low

Recent Commentaries

Oil Price Spike: Temporary Boost to Inflation, but for How Long?

Dutch Trade Trends Improve Goods Balance—for Now

The Trump Economy, One Year In

Economic Letter from Asia: A Shifting Consensus

March CPI: Pressure in the Energy Sector (as Expected); Tame Elsewhere (Surprisingly)

U.S. Factory Orders Flat in February on Weak Nondefense Aircraft Orders

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints