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With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Robert Brusca

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The S&P manufacturing PMI readings for February 2026 continued to show improvement, particularly on a sequential basis.

The chart shows a clear upward tendency for the United States, Japan, and the European Monetary Union where the manufacturing PMIs have been on an increasing track for some time. Japan just surpassed the U.S. this month where the manufacturing PMI reading surged above 50. The U.S. has been steady at that level for a number of months; Japan has just moved up while the euro area reading is starting to show some upward trend.

The table takes the underlying diffusion levels reported by these 18 early reporters and shuffles them into six different cohorts to summarize their performance over different periods.

In February, we see twice as many reporters in the cohort between 55 and 60 as we saw in January; that proportion moved up to 11.1% from 5.6%. The proportion in the 50 to 55 diffusion category (mild improvement) was unchanged at 55.6%; the proportion showing mild below median performance declined to 33.3% in February from 38.9% in January. The other cohorts showed no membership.

If we look at the data grouped into sequential categories of three-months, six-months, and 12-months, we see the neutral to mildly positive category of 50% to 55% moving from 28.2% of total membership over 12 months to 39.8% of membership over 6 months to 55.6% membership over 3 months. This is a clear improvement in performance over this timeline for the category indicating moderate expansion. The stronger expansion category of 55 to 60 shows a membership of 5.6% for all three-time horizons. The category showing weak declines in the 40 to 50 range for diffusion declined steadily from 66.2% over 12 months to 54.6% over 6 months to only 38.9% over 3 months. Over the last three months, fewer than 40% of the reporters were showing mild declines, 55% of the reporters were showing unchanged-to-moderate increases, while relatively larger increases have been posted by 5.6% of the reporters.

Looking back to the right of the table, we can compare the recent 12-month figures to the previous 12-months and to the 12-months before that to get a sense of the smoothed trend. There what we see is the 50 to 55 category three years ago was at 28.2% of the reporting membership; it moved up to 38% of the membership over just a year ago whereas over the past year that membership had slipped to 28% in an environment where tariffs were imposed. Although, as we see from the sequential data, it has over the shorter periods of six months and three months been seeing an increase in membership in that category.

Over the earlier years, there was also stronger membership in the stronger growth category of 55 to 60 percentile. Three years ago, it registered 8.3%, then fell to 6.4% and now sits at 5.6% over the recent 12 months. Over the recent shorter periods of three months and six months, there has yet to be an improvement in that category. As for the weaker category the cohort from 40 to 50%, we see 62% of the membership in that category three years ago, and two years ago that had fallen back to 55.6%, but then over the past year it had moved up to average 66% of the membership: fully 2/3 of the reporting membership over the last year has been in the 40 to 50 the diffusion category though that membership proportion has been falling over the last six and three months.

The grouped statistics show that there is general progress in place and in line with what we see reported in the chart. In addition, we track the number of reporters That are improving period to period. From 12 months to six months to three months, we see that percentage of reporters showing higher diffusion readings steadily improving from 50% to 61.1% to 77.8%. We also track the number of reporters with diffusion below 50 (that is those that are showing contraction) and that number hasn't changed very much; it's at 13 over 12 months and over 6 months while falling only to 12 over 3 months.

However, if we step away from averaging and we look at the raw scores for the last three months, we see the number of countries reporting output that's contracting at 8 in December, at 7 in January and at 6 in February, a clearer sense of progress. Meanwhile, on the monthly timeline, there's also a sense of improvement - not in a monotonic sense – but there is a hint of better general tendency for the percent of reporters that are showing the tendency for higher diffusion to be reported to rise.

The diffusion statistics are up to date, and they basically describe the proportion of the reporters that are seeing activity improve or decline in the reporting area. Diffusion data don’t tell us how strong that improvement is, just whether it's present. Diffusion data tend to be sensitive. They tend to quickly be able to identify changes in trends and right now we're seeing an uptick, an improvement, in the levels of diffusion being reported in this 18-country sample for manufacturing. The results are not decisive, but they are encouraging.

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S&P Manufacturing PMIs Show Improvement

Michael J. Moran

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The headline PPI and its components sometimes move erratically, and that was certainly the case in January. The headline index (so-called final demand PPI) jumped 0.5%, one of the firmer readings of the past few years. However, a quick review of the detail in the report shows that marked changes in frequently noisy areas accounted for most of the pressure. Without such noise, the headline measure would have increased moderately, perhaps 0.1% or 0.2%.

Prices of food and energy are well known to move erratically, and they showed noticeable downside changes in January (off 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively). However, the highly volatile trade services category provided an offset with a surge of 2.5%, the sharpest monthly increase on record (data back to 2010). The Bureau of Labor Services is well aware of the volatile nature of these areas and offers an index excluding food, energy, and trade services to provide a perspective on underlying trends. This measure rose 0.3% in January, in line with other recent month-to-month changes. The year-over-year increase of 2.9% was comfortably within the recent range of observations (2.7% to 3.2% since mid-2025).

The change in prices excluding food, energy, and trade services seems tolerable in that it is comparable to other recent readings. However, some observers will highlight the uncomfortable rate of increase (3.0% versus a benchmark of 2.0% in the minds of many). Also, the sideways nature of the year-over-year change suggests little prospect of deceleration.

These points are well taken, but additional detail in the report offered a hint of softness. Another volatile item in the service category (transportation and warehouse services) rose 1.0% in January. This measure does not match the volatility in trade services, but it often shifts erratically. For example, last year this component rose 1.4% in one month and more than 0.5% in four other months, yet the average for the year was 0.2%. Future readings are likely to be well shy of the January advance.

An increase of 1.2% in the construction component also looks suspicious. This figure is reported to be seasonally adjusted, but there is a strong tendency to post high-side increases in the first month of a quarter. Observations in the next two months are likely to be noticeably softer, and the average for the year most likely will be well shy of 1.2%. The average increase last year was 0.2%.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Prices of food and energy fell sharply, while prices of trade services surged.
- Other noisy areas (transportation & warehouse services, construction) posted high-side increases.
- Excluding the (apparently) random shifts, results were tame.

January PPI: Wild Swings in Volatile Areas

Winnie Tapasanun

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The value of construction put in place rose a slightly-more-than-expected 0.3% m/m in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,168.8 billion, reversing declines of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. December marked the first m/m gain since August and the highest level in three months. A 0.2% m/m increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for both November and December. The year-on-year rate was -0.4% in December following -1.4% in November, registering the 11th consecutive y/y decline. The latest y/y figure compared with a flat y/y reading in December 2024, remaining well below a high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022. For all of 2025, construction spending fell 1.4% after gains of 5.7% in 2024 and 9.1% in 2023.

Private construction rebounded 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) to $1,647.1 billion in December, the first m/m gain in four months, after decreases of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.6% previously). Residential private construction advanced 1.5% (-1.3% y/y) to $916.2 billion in December, the first m/m rise since August, after no change in November. Single-family building climbed 1.6% (-3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% November increase and eight straight m/m declines; it was 45.5% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building edged up 0.1% (2.9% y/y), the sixth m/m increase in seven months, after a 1.1% November rise; it was 12.7% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building recovered 1.8% (0.0% y/y), up the second time in three months, after a 1.0% November drop; it was 41.8% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.7% (-1.8% y/y) to $730.9 billion in December, the third successive m/m fall and the fifth in six months, on top of a 0.5% decline in November. The December decrease reflected m/m drops across several nonresidential private construction categories, led by manufacturing (-2.5%; -11.4% y/y), followed by religious (-1.7%; +8.5% y/y), amusement & recreation (-1.1%; +7.9% y/y), health care (-0.8%; -3.7% y/y), commercial (-0.4%; +0.3% y/y), educational (-0.4%; +5.2% y/y), lodging (-0.2%; -1.1% y/y), and communication (-0.1%; -0.8% y/y). To the upside, nonresidential private constructions for utilities (+0.8%; +6.4% y/y) and office (+0.5%; +3.3% y/y) rose m/m in December. Meanwhile, transportation private construction was virtually unchanged (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.4% November decline.

The value of public construction fell 0.5% (+3.5% y/y) to $521.7 billion in December after m/m declines of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.1% initially), reflecting drops of 2.7% (+9.1% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.4% (+3.4% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. Several nonresidential public construction categories declined m/m in December, led by water supply (-2.2%; +8.8% y/y), followed by public safety (-1.0%; +3.8% y/y), educational (-0.8%; -1.4% y/y), commercial (-0.6%; +7.3% y/y), transportation (-0.4%; +5.5% y/y), health care (-0.3%; +7.1% y/y), office (-0.3%; -2.6% y/y), and conservation & development (-0.1%; +8.7% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which accounted for 27.1% of public construction spending, slid 0.3% (+0.8% y/y) in December following a 0.4% rebound in November. In contrast, public constructions for utilities (+1.2%; +1.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (+0.5%; +4.6% y/y), and sewage & waste disposal (+0.3%; +14.2% y/y) gained m/m in December. 

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Headline +0.3% m/m, first m/m rise since August; -0.4% y/y, 11th consecutive y/y fall.
- Residential private construction +1.5% m/m, led by a 1.8% rebound in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.7% m/m, fifth m/m decline in six months.
- Public construction -0.5% m/m, reflecting drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.

U.S. Construction Spending Rebounds in December After Three Straight M/M Declines

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More countries have reported new results or firmed up their GDP results for 2025Q4. In the EMU, GDP grows by 1.3% year over year in the fourth quarter. The large EMU economies (Big Four) grow by 1% on that horizon, while the rest of the community grows at twice that pace, at 2.1%. U.S. growth on that timeline is 2.2%; Japan’s is 0.2%; and the United Kingdom grows by 0.9%. They are all weak compared to past standards. None of them rank at or above their respective 50th percentile standings on growth rates dating back to 1997.

In Europe, EMU nonmember Denmark’s growth at 3% has an over 50th percentile ranking, at 78.3 percentile mark. Ireland’s growth has a 60.9 percentile standing, while Italy and Portugal have growth rates near their respective 55th percentiles—above their respective medians but not by a lot.

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**The bigger they are, the slower they grow...**
Within the EMU, it is a durable finding that the smaller economies are growing faster than the larger ones. The good news here is that inflation seems to be really much more controlled and near to the target on a relatively broad basis. Headline inflation is broadly close to 2%, but core inflation rates are more stubbornly elevated. For now, the European Central Bank seems content to hold the line on inflation here. That decision is good for growth prospects. This may be because it can see that the community it services has some very different needs. And rather than holding the community’s feet to the fire to get inflation and core inflation to 2%, it has decided to allow some temporary overshooting and a longer glide path to 2%. This has been the U.S. strategy that is now coming under fire. The ECB may have adopted the charts and original targets of the old independent Bundesbank, but EMU-wide policy under the ECB looks very little like Germany policy used to when the Bundesbank results called the shots. This sort of overshoot would not have been tolerated and would not be ‘encouraged to live on’ with the compliant conduct of current policy. But then the ECB has this broader mandate of serving a huge area and with members that are not as inflation-fearing as Germany.

European nations generally have budgetary issues. Germany has been budget-careful. But its preference to pay down debt and stiff the U.S. on its request for Germany to put more money into NATO does not play well in retrospect. It has preserved some fiscal space for itself, and its fiscal house is very much in order…unlike France and nonmember U.K. who both are making policy under fiscal constraints.

For now, GDP growth is cruising along, and the EMU is logging weakish, tolerable, results. The big news so far is that growth has been enough to keep unemployment at an extremely low level. In some sense, the speed of GDP growth does not matter; it is anachronistic at least in the sense that what people think is good or enough draws from past experience, while the unemployment rate is a very here-and-now variable that might be affected by very different circumstances. Going ahead, there is a question of whether AI will be taking job growth away; it is a concern that is more advanced in the U.S. right now than in Europe. But it is still a nagging fear.

Still, we do not hear a lot of complaints about growth rates because the policy filter on GDP growth is employment growth and the unemployment rate. So far, those bells are not ringing out any warnings. So far...

Europe

Weak GDP Growth in Europe and Selected Countries Carries On

Andrew Cates

**The Global Business Cycle**
The latest flash composite PMI readings reinforce the theme of a still-expanding but increasingly uneven global cycle. As the chart shows, activity remained in expansion territory across most major economies in February, with the UK, Japan and Germany all posting solid readings and positive three-month momentum. The United States, by contrast, is positioned to the left of the vertical axis, signalling a modest loss of recent momentum even though the level of activity remains comfortably above the 50 threshold. At the top end, India continues to stand out with both strong levels and firm recent gains, underlining the resilience of its domestic demand cycle. Meanwhile, France sits close to the stagnation line, highlighting ongoing softness within parts of the euro area. For markets, the key takeaway is that global growth has not rolled over — but leadership is broadening and becoming more differentiated across regions.

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**South Korea’s Semiconductor Trade**
One factor helping to sustain global activity may well be the ongoing AI investment cycle, and Korea’s semiconductor exports provide a timely illustration. As the chart shows, shipments in the first 20 days of February have surged to fresh highs, extending the powerful upswing seen over the past year. Given Korea’s central role in the global memory and advanced chip supply chain, this strength is unlikely to be purely cyclical. Instead, it is consistent with continued heavy demand linked to data centres, high-performance computing and broader AI infrastructure build-out. In that sense, while parts of the global economy show signs of cooling, the AI capex cycle appears to be providing an important offset — reinforcing trade flows and helping to keep overall activity on a firmer footing than might otherwise have been expected.

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**US Investment in Data Centres**
The surge in Korea’s semiconductor exports is echoed in the composition of US investment, where AI-related capital spending continues to accelerate. As the chart shows, real private fixed investment in data centres has risen sharply since 2022, significantly outpacing both information processing equipment and overall non-residential business investment. This divergence points to an ongoing, capital-intensive build-out of digital and cloud infrastructure, consistent with strong global demand for computing power. For markets, the key takeaway is that the AI investment cycle remains firmly in expansion mode, helping to underpin activity in both the US and the broader technology supply chain.

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**Germany’s Capex Cycle**
If the US investment story is being powered by AI infrastructure, the latest data suggest Germany may finally be seeing a cyclical turn of its own. As the chart shows, domestic capital goods orders have picked up noticeably in recent months after an extended period of weakness. While the series remains volatile, the recent spikes hint at a tentative revival in investment demand within Europe’s largest manufacturing economy. Part of this improvement may reflect the early effects of easier financial conditions, but there are also signs that increased defence spending and related industrial orders could be beginning to filter through the pipeline. More broadly, the contrast with the US is instructive: whereas America’s capex surge is heavily concentrated in digital and AI infrastructure, Germany’s rebound appears more traditional and policy-driven, potentially marking the early stages of a broader European investment stabilisation.

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**Oil Prices, Policy and Financial Markets**
Shifting focus from investment to markets, the close co-movement between oil prices and short-term Treasury yields remains striking. As the chart highlights, the correlation between WTI and the US 2-year yield has stayed unusually tight, underscoring how energy markets continue to feed directly into macro and policy expectations. Recent weeks have also seen a modest firming in crude, in part reflecting renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the associated risk premium around Middle East supply routes. Oil has hovered near multi-month highs amid rising military and diplomatic strains between Washington and Tehran, even though physical supply has not yet been disrupted. For investors, the key point is that energy-driven inflation risks have not fully faded, meaning oil price volatility could still complicate the timing and extent of policy easing globally.

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**Japan’s 10-year JGB yields and data surprises**
Finally, developments in Japan’s bond market are also worth watching from a global perspective. The chart shows a clear relationship between the three-month change in 10-year JGB yields and the Citi Japan surprise indices, with yields tending to track shifts in the growth and inflation data flow. In recent weeks, the downward drift in JGB yields has been particularly notable. The move appears consistent with a run of softer-than-expected growth and inflation readings, which have tempered near-term tightening expectations. Given Japan’s outsized role in global capital markets and carry dynamics, even modest moves in JGB yields can have broader spillovers. To that extent, the recent pullback may have provided a mild anchoring influence on global bond markets at the margin, even as the broader normalization narrative remains intact.

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Over the past few days, financial markets have been navigating a fresh wave of policy and geopolitical cross-currents, with the US Supreme Court ruling on executive tariff authority adding a new layer of uncertainty to the trade outlook. At the same time, the AI investment boom continues to provide an important cyclical tailwind, even as investors remain alert to valuation risks, while renewed tensions involving Iran have reintroduced an energy risk premium. Against that backdrop, this week’s charts paint a picture of a global economy that is still expanding but becoming more differentiated. Latest flash PMI surveys confirm that global activity remains in growth territory despite some cooling in the US (chart 1). Strong semiconductor exports from Korea (chart 2) and surging US data-centre investment (chart 3) both underscore the continued force of the AI capex cycle, while a strong pickup in German capital goods orders (chart 4) hints at a more traditional, policy-linked investment impulse emerging in Europe. Meanwhile, the tight co-movement between oil prices and US front-end yields highlights (chart 5) the ongoing macro sensitivity to energy markets, and the recent downward drift in Japanese government bond yields — alongside softer data surprises — suggests that global bond markets may be receiving at least a modest anchoring impulse from Japan (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: The AI Undercurrent

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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from 208,000 in the week ending February 14, revised from 206,000. The four-week average edged up 750 to 220,250 in the February 21 week from 219,500 in the prior week, revised from 219,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 216,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—declined by 31,000 to 1.833 million in the week ending February 14, from 1.864 million in the week ending February 7, revised from 1.869 million. The four-week moving average stood at 1.847 million, an increase from the previous week’s average of 1.844 million, revised from 1.845 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of February 14, unchanged from the previous eleven weeks.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending February 7, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.05%), New Jersey (2.90%), Massachusetts (2.74%), Washington (2.52%), Minnesota (2.46%), California (2.20%), Montana (2.12%), Michigan (2.03%) and Oregon (2.02%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.38%), North Carolina (0.43%), Mississippi (0.42%), Alabama (0.44%), and Arkansas (0.46%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.27%), New York (2.24%), Pennsylvania (2.01%), and Texas (1.12%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 4,000 to 212,000.
- Continuing claims declined by 31,000 to 1.833 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% for the 12th consecutive week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in Latest Week

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EU Commission indexes that assess economic performance for the countries in Europe and in the European Monetary Union slipped in February to 98.3 from 99.3 in January; however, the February reading is still relatively strong by recent standards and leaves the index largely in an uptrend.

The February readings saw the industrial sector unchanged, a small upward move in consumer confidence, and a one-point backtracking in construction, as retailing improved by a point. The services sector index stepped back by two points, putting it back at its December level.

**Ranking standings for economic groups**
The key ranking of the sectors in February show only two of the sectors with readings above their medians (i.e., above a ranking of 50%). Those sectors are retailing with a queue standing in its 60.4 percentile and construction with its queue standing in its 79.3 percentile. Consumer confidence continues to be the weakest with a 27.8 percentile ranking, services check in with a 33.4 percentile ranking, and the industrial sector has moved up to a 43.6 percentile ranking. However, the overall monetary union ranking is only in its 41st percentile, substantially below its historic median which resides at a standing at the 50-percentile mark.

**Country level performance**
Beyond the sectors, there are 18 of the 20 monetary union countries that provide early readings to this survey. Eleven countries showed weakened performance in February compared to January. In January, seven countries had weakened relative to December. In December, seven countries had weakened relative to November. However, in December, four of the countries that weakened were the four largest economies in the monetary union. In January, none of the largest four economies weakened month-to-month. Now, in February, we have three of the four largest economies weakening month-to-month, with the other one, Spain, posting an unchanged reading. The large countries in the monetary union have begun to have a little more difficulty over these last three months.

**Standings by country**
Percentile-standing data showed that, of the 18 countries in the table, only 8 have readings that place them above their historic medians on data back to the mid-1980s.  The large countries have split performance, with Italy reporting a 59.8 percentile standing and Spain reporting a 72.4 percentile spending, while the two largest monetary union economies, Germany and France, post readings in the 23rd percentile for Germany and the 44th percentile for France. The ranking for the monetary union as a whole is at its 41st percentile. That compares to an unweighted average ranking in the 44th percentile for all the countries when their individual rankings pooled and averaged. The two ratings are close together.

**Apart from the Big Four**
Among the rest of the monetary union members, countries with readings above the 50th percentile are Malta, Greece, Lithuania, Latvia, the Netherlands, and Cyprus. Four countries vie for having the weakest reading in the table, with readings in their 20th percentile region. That list includes Big Four member Germany with the 23.5 percentile standing, Slovakia with a 23.8 percentile standing, Belgium with a 23.1 percentile standing, and Austria with a 22.1 percentile standing. There is considerable heterogeneity among the rankings of the monetary union member countries across all size classes. In addition, as we saw above, looking at the sectors, the sector rankings varied from a low of 27th percentile standing for consumer confidence to a high of 79th percentile standing for construction.

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**Summing up**
The chart shows the large economies nonetheless demonstrating some improvement with all of them displaying rising trends over the past year or so.  However, the absolute rankings of the EU Commission assessment data remain low by historic comparison and the community still has a long way to go in order to get the majority of its members back on an even keel.

EMU Indexes Back Off But Hold Uptrend

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Mortgage applications rose 0.4% w/w (69.1% y/y) in the week ending February 20 after rising 2.8% w/w (57.7% y/y) in the week ending February 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 4.7% w/w (+13.1% y/y) in the latest week, following a decline of 2.7% w/w (+9.1% y/y) in the prior week.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 4.1% w/w (150.3% y/y) in the week ending February 20, after rising 7.1% w/w (131.8% y/y) in the February 13 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan dropped 9bps to 6.24% in the week ending February 20 from 6.33% in the week ending February 13. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages edged down 2bps to 5.66% in the latest week from 5.68% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 3bps to 6.32% in the February 20 week from 6.29% in the February 13 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 14bps to 5.38% in the week ending February 20 from 5.52% in the week ending February 13, reaching the lowest level since September 2022.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 58.6% of total applications in the February 20 week from 57.4% in the February 13 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity was unchanged at 8.2% in the February 20 week from the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged up 0.4% w/w (8.3% y/y) to $416,800 in the week ending February 20, after rising 2.3% w/w (8.6% y/y) to $415,100 in the week ending February 13. The average size of a purchase loan declined 1.1% w/w (+0.4% y/y) to $442,900 in the latest week, after rising 0.7% w/w (2.0% y/y) to $448,000 in the week ending February 13. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 2.0% w/w (34.3% y/y) to $398,400 in the week ending February 20, after rising 4.1% w/w (34.1% y/y) to $390,700 in the week ending February 13.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined in the latest week while refinancing loan applications rose.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans declined 9bp to 6.24%.
- Average loan size edged up.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Up in the February 20

**Geopolitical risk**
The escalation in Middle East tensions has already been reflected in a sharp rise in the Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, shown in the first chart below. This index—based on the frequency of geopolitical risk references in major international newspapers—has jumped to levels typically associated with periods of acute international tension. For the global economy, the immediate concern is less the direct economic damage and more the uncertainty generated by the conflict. The Middle East remains central to the global energy system, and concerns over potential disruption to oil infrastructure or shipping routes—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—have already contributed to a sharp rise in energy prices, with knock-on effects for financial markets and the broader outlook for global growth.

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**The Strait of Hormuz**
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is highlighted in the next chart below, which shows tanker transit calls through the strait. After rising through February, tanker movements have dropped sharply in the wake of the recent escalation in regional tensions. This narrow maritime corridor is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, with roughly a fifth of global oil supply and a large share of LNG exports passing through it each day. But its importance extends beyond hydrocarbons: the Gulf is also a major exporter of petrochemicals and fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, key inputs for global agriculture. Any sustained disruption to traffic through Hormuz would therefore have implications not only for energy markets but also for broader global supply chains.

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**Oil and Natural Gas**
As noted, the sensitivity of energy markets to developments in the Gulf has been evident in the behaviour of both oil and gas prices. The next chart below shows a sharp move higher in Brent crude alongside a pronounced spike in natural gas futures in recent days. While oil understandably attracts most of the attention given the volume that transits through the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas is equally important from a macroeconomic perspective. The Gulf region is a major supplier of LNG to Europe and Asia, and disruptions to shipping routes or regional infrastructure can quickly tighten global gas markets. For Europe in particular—still structurally more exposed to imported LNG following the loss of Russian pipeline supply—higher gas prices feed directly into electricity costs, industrial input prices and household energy bills. In short, the latest escalation is not simply an oil story; it is an energy story more broadly, with implications for inflation, real incomes and growth across the global economy.

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**Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures**
Beyond energy markets, and as also noted above, developments in the Middle East also have the potential to reverberate through global trade and supply chains. The next chart below illustrates this link by comparing the Baltic Exchange Panamax Index—a key benchmark for dry bulk shipping costs—with the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. The Panamax index tracks freight rates for vessels typically used to transport bulk commodities such as grains, coal and fertilizers, cargoes that frequently move through or originate from the Gulf region. As such, it provides a useful barometer of shipping conditions that are particularly relevant for the Middle East. Historically, spikes in shipping costs have tended to coincide with periods of heightened supply chain stress, as seen most clearly during the pandemic. Should tensions in the region more forcefully disrupt maritime traffic or insurance conditions for vessels operating near the Strait of Hormuz, freight rates could rise again, potentially amplifying broader supply chain pressures and adding another layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook.

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**Energy prices and inflation**
Developments in energy markets also matter because of their close connection with inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The fifth chart below compares year-on-year changes in Brent crude oil prices with the Citigroup Global Inflation Surprise Index, which measures whether inflation outcomes are coming in above or below economists’ expectations. Historically, periods of sharply rising oil prices have often coincided with upside inflation surprises, most notably during the pandemic recovery when energy prices surged and global inflation pressures intensified. This relationship highlights why events in the Middle East are being watched so closely by policymakers. A sustained rise in energy prices would risk complicating the disinflation process that many central banks have been trying to engineer. In turn, this could delay or limit the scope for interest rate cuts and tighten financial conditions more broadly, adding another potential headwind to the global economic outlook.

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**Natural gas and electricity generation**
The importance of natural gas to the global economy is further illustrated in the final chart, which shows global per capita electricity generation by source. While renewable energy has expanded rapidly in recent years, fossil fuels continue to play a dominant role in meeting rising electricity demand. In particular, natural gas has become an increasingly important component of the global power mix, reflecting its flexibility, relatively lower carbon intensity compared with coal and oil, and its ability to provide reliable baseload and balancing power. Oil, by contrast, now plays only a very limited role in electricity generation in most economies. This backdrop is especially relevant given the rapid expansion of energy demand associated with artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. Data centres, cloud computing networks and the broader digital economy require vast and reliable supplies of electricity. While renewables are likely to account for a growing share of new capacity, natural gas is expected to remain a critical bridging fuel in ensuring system stability and meeting peak demand. As a result, disruptions to global energy markets—particularly those affecting natural gas and LNG flows from the Middle East—could have implications that extend well beyond traditional energy markets, potentially affecting the pace at which new digital and AI-related infrastructure can be deployed.

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply following joint air strikes by Israel and the United States on strategic targets in Iran. While the ultimate trajectory of the conflict remains highly uncertain, the episode highlights the potential for geopolitical shocks to ripple through multiple channels of the global economy—from energy markets and shipping routes to supply chains, inflation dynamics and monetary policy. In this week’s _Charts of the Week_, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, including movements in geopolitical risk (chart 1), shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz (chart 2), energy prices (chart 3), global supply chain pressures (chart 4), inflation surprises (chart 5) and the evolving structure of global electricity generation (chart 6). Together they provide a framework for thinking about how events in the region could shape the outlook for the world economy in the months ahead.

Charts of the Week: Shockwaves from the Gulf

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