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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

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Weakness in Chinese investment is spreading

Robert Brusca

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The INSEE survey for France that evaluates manufacturing and services sector firms shows a strong rebound for manufacturing in October and a solid rebound for services in the same month. However, the two sectors are experiencing significantly different environments, with the industry climate reading for manufacturing at a 76.5 percentile standing, putting it in the top 25 percentile of all performances back to 2001. The services climate reading is at a 42.8 percentile standing, leaving it below its historic median over the same period.

**Manufacturing**
The manufacturing survey shows manufacturing production expectations improved slightly, moving from a -9 reading in September to -8.5 in October; the recent trend for production increased to 2.3 in October from -1.4 in September. While participants in the survey found the prospects for their own industry, the personal likely trend rose to 18.6 from 14.3 in September. The assessment of the industry trend is still a weak one with a 40th percentile standing; however, the personal likely trend is quite strong at a 93.8 percentile standing. This shows that participants have a much more upbeat view of their own industry compared to their expectations for the manufacturing sector as a whole. Since the survey is a broad one across sectors, these results make the survey somewhat inconsistent with itself.

Orders and demand improved sharply in October with the net rating of -10.5, sharply improved from -15.8 in September. The response for foreign orders and demand showed an even stronger positive shift to -1 from -10.1 in September. The rankings for orders and demand show a 74.2 percentile standing for the overall reading, while foreign orders & demand have an 87.3 percentile standing; both of these are quite strong.

The outlook for prices diverges, with firms seeing their own likely price and trend for their industry at 10.6 in October, lower than 14.6 in September. However, for the manufacturing sector price level, they look for an escalation to 31.1 in October from 24.7 in September. The own likely price trend has a 78.1 percentile standing, while the manufacturing price level has an 83.3 percentile standing; both are looking for significant upward pressure on prices.

**Services**
The services survey in October shows an increase in the climate indicator to 99.3 from 97.8 in September; however, it still leaves the sector with a 42.8 percentile standing, below its historic median. The three-month average and the 12-month average of the climate gauge both show improvements; in both cases, they're relatively small, but a lot of that is the result of the smoothing. In terms of the rankings, the rankings for the three-month and 12-month measures are fairly similar to the ranking for the reading for the current month in October.

The outlook improved to -9 in October from -10 in September but still has only a 34.6 percentile standing, nearly a lower 1/3 standing for the outlook.

For sales, the observed performance over the last three months weakened to -5 in October from -1 in September. However, the expectations for three months ahead improved to 3.9 from 0.6 in September. The past observed trend is weak with a 22.5 percentile standing, while the expected result for the three months ahead has an above median, at a 60.8 percentile standing. With such a weak outlook, the turnaround on sales is surprising.

On the price side, there are slightly mixed results, with the observed trend over three months falling to 2.2 in October from 3.4 in September against the expected trend over the next three months, which moved up to 5 from 4.6 in September. The ranking of the past three-month trend is a 77.8 percentile standing; the ranking for the expected trend is a stronger 89.2 percentile standing.

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**Summing up**
For both services and industry outlooks, we see concerns or expectations of higher prices ahead. Manufacturing shows a split view on the recent growth trend versus the trend that respondents are expecting for their own industries, while for services, the overall industry expectation is upbeat despite a low ranking on the past three-month trend.

In assessing what these things mean for France, it's difficult to say because the country is involved in this current upheaval with nationwide protests, some of them of terrific intensity. One thing the survey tells us is that, at least at the time these demonstrations were occurring, the economy was performing fairly well. We'll have to look in the coming months to see how much of this dissatisfaction winds up undercutting what had been a relatively stable-to-strong economy with improving expectations, but also one layered with inflation concerns.

France

French Industry and Services Both Improve

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications fell 5.3% w/w (-40.4% y/y) in the week ending October 16, the 7th consecutive weekly decline and after declining 2.7% w/w (-37.2% y/y) in the week ending October 9, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 7.3% w/w (-17.9% y/y) in the latest week, after declining 4.0% w/w (-16.1% y/y) in the October 9 week. Applications for loan refinancing fell 2.0% w/w (-58.6% y/y) in the October 16 week following a decline of 0.4% w/w (-56.0% y/y) in the October 9 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 12bps to 7.63% in the week ending October 16 from 7.75% in the week ending October 9, and after rising for 8 consecutive weeks. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 18bps to 6.91% in the October 16 week from 7.09% in the October 9 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate fell 19bps to 7.50% in the latest week from 7.69% in the October 9 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined 9bps to 6.87% in the October 16 week from 6.96% in the October 9 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 39.0% of total applications in the week of October 16 from 37.7% in the week ending October 9. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity was unchanged at 10.5% in the latest week.

The average size of a mortgage rose 0.5% w/w (-10.3% y/y) to $372,100 in the week ending October 16, after declining 2.0% w/w (-7.5% y/y) to $370,200 in the week ending October 9. The average size of a purchase loan was unchanged at $444,700 in the October 16 week after declining 0.8% w/w in the October 9 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 4.5% w/w to $258,400 in the week ending October 16 after declining 3.9% w/w to $247,200 in the October 9 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing both declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans fell 12bps to 7.63%, the first decline in 8 weeks.
- Average loan size rose slightly in the October 16 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the October 16 Week

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Inflation in the United Kingdom is back to misbehaving in September. The HICP rendition of inflation posted a 0.5% increase, its second in a row, following a 0.6% increase in July. The CPIH, however, performed exactly the same, with a 0.5% increase in September and August, after a 0.6% gain in July. This is going to put the Bank of England's back up against the wall when it comes to making its next interest rate decision.

**Hot, hot, hot**: Inflation runs hot in the United Kingdom. The CPIH version shows a 6.6% annual rate over three months, a 4.2% pace over six months, and 3.6% over 12 months. This is a clear accelerating profile with inflation clearly over the 2% mark over each one of those horizons. A year ago, inflation was rising 4.1% year-over-year. There's very little here to provide any escape from the conclusion that interest rates need to go up and inflation is a problem that needs some strict attention.

**Core inflation is rising as well**: Core inflation in the U.K. under the CPIH measure rose 0.4% in September after rising 0.2% in August and 0.4% in July. The sequence of core inflation rates from 12 months inward shows a 12-month pace of 3.1%, a six-month pace of 3.2%, and a three-month pace of 4.1%. These increases are faster-paced step by step as horizons shorten. However, like the headline, all three of these metrics are above 2% and once again there is this accelerating trend in place, even for the core, and that has to be an even more difficult pill for the Bank of England to swallow.

**Inflation acceleration:** If we look at the tendency to accelerate, acceleration occurred in 58.3% of the categories in July; that proportion fell to 41.7% in August, and it was back up to 50% in September. So, as of September, the proportion of these categories showing acceleration is split pretty much 50/50, making it less of a clear acceleration imperative on volatile monthly data. However, over three months compared to six months, 75% of the categories are accelerating; over six months compared to 12 months, again 75% of the categories are accelerating; over 12 months compared to 12 months ago, that proportion drops to 41.7%. But the drop in the breadth of inflation is also related to the fact that the 12-month inflation rate had dropped from a year ago at 3.8% to 3.5%; it dropped more, from 4% to 3.1%, in the case of the core CPIH. In other words, inflation has fallen from a very excessive pace to a still excessive pace, and that drop is ‘endorsed’ by a drop in breadth. Breadth can reinforce direction. And now inflation and breadth both are rising – a bad sign.

**Inflation ranking**: We also can look at how inflation ranks compared to where it's been and on this basis that we wind up with another troubling finding. The HICP version of inflation has an 82nd percentile standing; the CPIH version also has an 82nd percentile standing and the CPIH core measure has a slightly higher 82.7 percentile standing. So, inflation is high even by historic experience; that compares current year-over-year inflation in September to inflation rates back to the year 2000. On that timeline, in fact, the median for inflation has a 77th percentile standing and the average pace for inflation has a 72nd percentile standing across categories. Now both of these are slightly lower than the actual CPIH version at a ranking of 82%. What that tells us is that inflation has been even more virulent in those categories that have a higher weight in the CPI.

**Summing up**
On balance, this is a poor report; it will probably put the Bank of England's back up against the wall to enforce another rate hike. It's hard to see how the central bank can look at these various measures of inflation and their path and decide to pass on a rate hike at its next meeting, so brace yourself.

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United Kingdom

U.K. CPI Goes Off the Rails Ahead of BOE Meeting

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, dropped 7.3% m/m to 66.0 in September following a 0.3% increase in August (unrevised) and a 2.6% decline in July (unrevised), data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed, indicating a marked weakening in homebuying demand amid high mortgage rates and worsening housing affordability. September was the third m/m decrease in four months and the lowest PHSI level on record. The year-on-year rate decelerated to -11.3% in September, the deepest y/y fall since August 2023, from -4.7% in August (-0.8% in September 2025). The index had fallen 47.2% since its October 2021 high of 125.1.

The m/m drop in September pending home sales coincided with an increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.86%, the highest since January 2025, after a 13-bps rise to 6.67% in August, according to Freddie Mac. These rates, while below a peak of 7.62% in October 2023, had remained above a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

By region, September pending home sales showed a widespread decline, with the steepest m/m and y/y drop in the West. Sales in the West tumbled 9.2% (-15.0% y/y) in September after a 3.0% rebound in August, and sales in the South slumped 8.2% (-12.0% y/y) following a 2.4% August increase; both regions fell m/m for the third time in four months. Sales in the Midwest decreased 6.5% (-8.7% y/y) on top of a 1.8% August slide, and sales in the Northeast fell 4.2% (-9.4% y/y) after falling at the same pace in August; both regions declined m/m for the fourth straight month.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

These PHSI data date back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Monthly and weekly mortgage interest rates can be found in the **USECON**, **WEEKLY**, and **SURVEYS** databases.

- PHSI -7.3% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to an all-time index low of 66.0 in Sept; third decline in four mths.
- Home sales down m/m and y/y in all four regions, w/ the steepest drop in the West (-9.2% m/m, -15.0% y/y).
- 30-year mortgage rate up to 6.86% in Sept., highest since Jan. ’25, weighing on homebuying demand and affordability.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall to Record Low in September Amid High Mortgage Rates

Sandy Batten

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Weighed down by further rises in longer-term interest rates, housing construction fell markedly in September, declining an unexpected 5.2% m/m (-7.4% y/y) to 1.221 million units at an annual rate following a 5.9% monthly drop in August and a 4.9% monthly decline in July. The September level is the second lowest since the economy was emerging from the COVID shutdown in the spring of 2020. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 2.0% monthly gain. Residential investment has been a persistent drag on real GDP growth recently, subtracting from quarterly real GDP growth in seven of the previous nine quarters. Today’s release shows total housing starts in Q3 to be meaningfully lower than in Q2, indicating that residential investment will be a drag on GDP growth in Q3.

Single-family starts fell 4.6% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in September, the second monthly decline in the past three months, following a 2.9% monthly increase in August. Usually volatile multi-family starts have been even weaker recently. They fell 6.7% m/m (-24.9% y/y) in September, their fifth monthly decline in the past six months, on top of a 21.5% monthly drop in August.

Looking at the four major geographic regions, starts rose 6.1% m/m (+11.0% y/y) in the South. They were unchanged from August (-30.9% y/y) in the Northeast after a 43.3% monthly plunge in August. Starts in the Midwest posted the third consecutive double-digit monthly decline in September, falling 19.0% m/m (-19.4% y/y). Starts were even weaker in the West in September, plunging 23.2% m/m (-25.4% y/y) but this was after a 25.4% monthly surge in August.

In comparison to the marked decline in housing starts in September, housing permits edged down only 0.2% m/m (-3.0% y/y) to 1.400 million units at an annual rate. This was the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Expectations were for a small decline in September. Single-family permits fell 4.0% m/m (-4.8% y/y), their third monthly decline in the past four months. More volatile multi-family permits rose 6.1% m/m (-0.2% y/y), more than offsetting a 3.0% monthly decline in August.

Permits increased in three of the four major regions in September. They jumped 13.3% m/m (-2.0% y/y) in the Northeast but this increase failed to offset a 15.8% monthly drop in August. Permits rose a more moderate 1.5% m/m (-1.8% y/y) in the South after having been unchanged in August. They edged up 0.5% m/m (+4.4% y/y) in the Midwest, the third monthly gain in the past four months. By contrast, permits plunged 10.2% m/m (-11.3% y/y) in the West, the first monthly decline in the past three months.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Housing starts fell 5.2% m/m in September to their second lowest level since the COVID pandemic shutdown with upward revisions to both July and August.
- Both single-family and multi-family starts declined in September.
- Permits were little changed in September with a sharp rise in muti-family permits nearly offsetting a meaningful decline in single-family permits.

September U.S. Housing Starts Hit by Rising Interest Rates

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**The current situation assessment is mixed**
To the ZEW experts, economic assessments of the current situation in October are split, with slight deterioration reported for the euro area as a whole and a two-point step-back for China. However, for Germany and the United States, there were significant improvements with the month-to-month diffusion indexes improving by 6 points in the U.S. and by 11 points in Germany. Ironically, both of the weakening areas, the euro area and China, have percentile standings above their historic medians, with China at a 76.1 percentile standing and the euro area at a 58.7 percentile standing. Germany and the U.S. show some strengthening month-to-month, but their standings are still below their historic medians. The German standing is at a 42.5 percentile and the U.S. standing is at a 46.2 percentile.

**Economic expectations ease broadly**
Economic expectations, however, are unequivocally weaker across the reporting countries. There were declines in expectations in Germany of 6.6 points, in the U.S. of 5.3 points, and in China of 4.2 points; each of these three reporters shows a measurable slippage in October. Among the three countries showing slippage, only Germany continues to report economic expectations ranking above its historic median, at a standing of its 53rd percentile (a ranking above 50 means above median).

**Inflation makes a sharp step back**
The real story of the ZEW survey this month, however, is on inflation where the inflation expectations dropped sharply across the board. For the euro area, expectations dropped 26 diffusion points; in Germany, they dropped 24 diffusion points; in the U.S., they dropped 22 diffusion points; and in China, they dropped by 15 diffusion points. Inflation expectations are above their median now only in China, with a 62nd percentile standing. In the U.S., inflation expectations have dropped to a 28th percentile standing.

**Rising short-term rates continue as inflation is expected to abate**
With the decline in inflation expectations, however, short-term interest rate expectations rose by 2 points in the euro area and by 5.2 points in the United States, while in China there was a step-back of 4.1 diffusion points. All three areas, however, have short-term rate expectations well above the historic median levels.

**Low inflation expectations boost bond values**
The reduction in inflation expectations has had the biggest impact on long-term interest rate expectations. Those have fallen in Germany by 13.2 diffusion points; they've fallen in the U.S. by 18.3 diffusion points; and they've fallen in China by 5.0 diffusion points. The ZEW experts apparently think that central banks are going to continue to raise interest rates and the impact is going to be to flatten yield curves globally.

**ZEW experts’ outlook for stocks**
The final market expectation of the ZEW experts is that stock markets generally are seen improving in this environment. For the euro area, there's a 4.1-point improvement; for Germany, a 5.8-point improvement; and for China, the diffusion index is 4.9 points higher. Only the U.S. has a slightly weaker outlook as the outlook falls by 2.3 diffusion points. All the stock market expectations are above their historic medians, generally ranging between readings above 50, at the 54th percentile to the 57th percentile, except for China, where the stock market expectation is in its 83rd percentile, extremely strong.

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**What the consolidated outlook implies**
To sum up, the outlook of the ZEW officials this month sees current conditions as mixed, economic expectations as lower, inflation expectations as much lower, and short-term interest rates generally creeping a little bit higher, with the impact being to reduce long-term interest rates significantly and allow stock markets to improve in most places except in the U.S. The most significant thing about these expectations is a sharp step-back in inflation expectations for the overall inflation expectation across the euro area, in Germany, and the United States. Those readings average less than a 40th percentile standing at a time that the economic expectations are slightly stronger than that in percentile levels. While both show contraction, inflation expectation rankings are weaker than growth rankings. The outlook for short-term interest rates is much stronger in percentile terms, but the outlook for long-term interest rates is weaker in percentile terms. That is the focus of stimulus.

ZEW forecasters seem to be not very concerned about the short term, but apparently they are hedging their bets about the long term, as economic expectations are weaker and long-term rates are easing and logging weak levels on a historic ranking basis. The one element about this outlook that may seem a bit incongruent is that stock markets continue to post above-median results as economic expectations and long-term interest rates fall significantly. I suppose the message from the ZEW experts is that they expect the drop in the interest rates to help stock markets more than the weakness in the future economic conditions will hurt them.

ZEW Survey Shows a Sharp Reduction in Inflation Concerns

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The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo fell 9.4% m/m to 29 in October following an 8.6% decrease to 32 in September (unrevised) and a 2.9% increase to 35 in August (unrevised), indicating a further deterioration in homebuilder sentiment and overall housing-market conditions. October marked the fourth m/m fall in five months and the lowest level since June 2012. The year-on-year rate decelerated to -21.6% in October, the deepest y/y decline since September 2025, from 0.0% in September (-14.0% in October 2025). The HMI had remained below the breakeven 50 level since May 2024. The October index, lower than 37 in October 2025, was 48.2% below a high of 56 in July 2023 and 67.8% below a record-high 90 in November 2020.

Notably, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held at 7.40% in the weeks of October 15 and October 8, remaining the highest since the week of November 16, 2023, compared to 6.86% during all of September, according to Freddie Mac. The rate was above its recent low of 5.98% in the February 26 week but below a peak of 7.79% in the week of October 26, 2023.

All three HMI components declined this month. The index of present single-family sales conditions slid 5.7% (-15.4% y/y) to 33 in October, the fourth m/m slide in five months and the lowest level since June 2012, after a 10.3% decrease to 35 in September. The index was 46.8% below a high of 62 in July 2023 and 65.6% below a record-high 96 in November 2020. The index of expected single-family sales for the next six months dropped 13.5% (-40.7% y/y) to 32, the third m/m fall in four months and the weakest level since November 2022, after a 14.0% September drop to 37. The index was 51.5% below a high of 66 in December 2024 and 64.0% below a record-high 89 in November 2020. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers plunged 21.7% (-28.0% y/y) to 18, the lowest reading since April 2020, after holding at 23 in September, August and July. The index was 55.0% below a high of 40 in July 2023 and 76.6% below a record-high 77 in November 2020.

By region, the HMIs were down m/m in the West, Midwest and South this month, while up in the Northeast. The index for the West plummeted 33.3% (-35.5% y/y) to 20 in October, the first m/m decline since July and the lowest level since December 2011, reversing a 7.1% rise to 30 in September. The index for the Midwest tumbled 12.5% (-16.7% y/y) to 35, the lowest level since January 2024, after an 11.1% September fall to 40. The index for the South fell 6.9% (-22.9% y/y) to 27, matching its weakest level since June 2012, following a 12.1% September slide to 29. In contrast, the index for the Northeast rebounded 5.7% (-32.7% y/y) to 37 in October following a 16.7% drop to 35 in September.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low". The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

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- HMI weakens m/m for the fourth time in five mths. in Oct., indicating most builders remain pessimistic about the current and near-term housing outlook.
- All three HMI components down, w/ the steepest m/m drop in prospective buyer traffic (-21.7%).
- Mixed regional performance m/m: down in the West (-33.3%), Midwest (-12.5%) and South (-6.9%); up in the Northeast (+5.7%).

U.S. Housing Market Index Drops in October to Lowest Level Since June 2012

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Japan’s sector surveys are showing some progress. However, the most recent observation from the METI sector indexes shows that the tertiary sector in August, which is the services sector in Japan, eased slightly to an index level of 106.8 from 106.9 in July. The rank for this sector based on growth over the last year is in its 64.1 percentile standing; that compares to the industry index that actually stepped down more sharply in August to 101.9 from 104.4 but still has a growth rank in the 84th percentile. The METI indexes can also be ranked according to the index levels rather than their growth rates; on that basis, the tertiary index ranks much higher in its 98th percentile, while the industry index ranks only at its 18th percentile on data back to 2012. You can see that a lot of this is from the post-COVID period since the change in the index from January 2020 to date is a decline of 6.3% for the industry index and an increase of 4.6% for the tertiary index. Japan's economy has clearly been hobbled since the onset of COVID and the recovery from it.

While the METI sector indexes show weakness in August, the leading economic index rose to a level of 118 from a level of 117.6 in July; the year-over-year growth rate ranking of the LEI is in its 92.5 percentile, quite strong. The index level ranked back to 2012 on the same timeline as the METI indexes has a 98.3 percentile standing. These are very different takes on the economy compared to METI, albeit based on different conceptual readings.

**Economy Watchers**
Other indexes weighing in on growth in the Japanese economy come from the economy watchers index, where that overall index rose in August to a diffusion value of 46.4 from 45.7 in July. Over the past year, its growth rate (for the change in the diffusion index) ranked in its 53.5 percentile, while its index level rank is only in its 36.6 percentile. The economy watcher shows a year-over-year growth ranking above the 50th percentile for the retail sector, for eating & drinking places, for employment, and for the future index, with only the services sector lagging behind at the 40th percentile standing. However, when we rank the levels of these sector indexes, which are diffusion indexes, only the eating & drinking places category has a percentile standing above the 50th percentile, which means it's the only sector above its median value on data back to 2012. Meanwhile, all the August values for the diffusion readings themselves are below 50, indicating sector contraction across the board. 

**Teikoku**
A separate set of readings comes from Teikoku, where the manufacturing and wholesaling indexes both have readings above the 50th percentile, at the 59th percentile for wholesaling and at the 81st percentile for manufacturing. These are also diffusion indexes; if we look at the levels of the indexes, both manufacturing and wholesaling also have level rankings that are strong in the 80th percentile for manufacturing and in the 64th percentile for wholesaling. Retailing is at the 43rd percentile standing, while services and construction are weaker, with readings closer to their lower third, at the 34th percentile standing for services and at the 35th percentile standing for construction. Like the economy watchers index, these are also diffusion indexes and all of the raw diffusion readings are below 50, showing sector contraction in August.

**Every sector tells a story**
These various indexes tell differing stories depending on the index doing the telling. But the stories aren't so different overall. They show generally that the manufacturing sector is doing well recently, although industry ranks much lower in the METI framework than manufacturing ranks in the Teikoku framework. Services have a sub-50 percentile standing for both growth and level in both the economy watchers and the Teikoku framework, whereas in the METI framework, the services sector is above its median on the same timeline. One of the reasons for the weaker industrial index in the METI framework is that the designation ‘industry’ mixes manufacturing with mining, and the mining sector has been lagging. The differences in the services categories are harder to explain, with much stronger growth in both the ranking and the levels in the METI framework compared to the economy watchers or the Teikoku. However, in the economy watchers segment, the employment index growth rank is quite high in the 71st percentile, but in level terms it's still weak at the 30th percentile. That seems to provide a sort of halfway house to understanding the differences. From that index, it would appear that recent employment growth has picked up, very likely underpinning the services sector. However, the employment index, compared to where it's been historically, remains weak; that leaves the strong reading for the tertiary index ranking as the odd man out and harder to explain.

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Japan

Japan Shows Growth Progress and Ongoing Weakness

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at +0.07 in September, up from a downwardly revised -0.08 in August (-0.04 initially) and down from an upwardly revised +0.12 in July (+0.08 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating that economic activity was slightly above its historical trend for the third time in four months in September after slightly below the historical trend in August. The latest CFNAI was above a low of -0.49 in October 2025 and a reading of -0.31 in September 2025 but below a high of +0.39 in February 2025.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, edged up to +0.03 in September from +0.01 in August (unrevised), registering the fourth successive positive reading and the seventh in eight months. It was above a low of -0.39 in October 2025 and -0.23 in September 2025 but below its recent high of +0.07 in April. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, the September CFNAI-MA3 suggested that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The September reading reflected m/m increases in three of the four CFNAI key components and two positive contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI rose to +0.13 in September, the highest reading since April, from -0.06 in August; it was below a high of +0.37 in February 2025 but above -0.10 in September 2025 and a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index rebounded to +0.02 in September, the fourth positive reading in five months, from -0.03 in August; it was above -0.17 in September 2025 and a low of -0.19 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.16 in March 2025. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index improved to a neutral value (0.00) in September from -0.02 in August; it was above its recent low of -0.13 in February and -0.01 in September 2025 but below its recent high of +0.05 in January. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index fell to -0.08 in September, the second negative reading in three months and the lowest level since May 2025, from +0.02 in August; it was below -0.03 in September 2025 and a high of +0.09 in March 2025 but above a low of -0.14 in January 2025.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—ticked up to +0.06 in September, the seventh straight positive reading, from an upwardly revised +0.05 in August (+0.02 initially). A string of negative readings was posted during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The September reading was above a low of -0.58 in October 2025 and -0.34 in September 2025 but below its recent high of +0.13 in July (matching September 2022).

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI up to +0.07 in Sept., positive for the third time in four mths.
- Three of four CFNAI components up m/m; two make positive contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 up to +0.03, fourth consecutive positive reading; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index up to +0.06, remaining positive for the seventh straight mth.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Turns Positive in September

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**TRANSPRT** → Port Statistics by Country → **South Korea** → Trade by Port

Port statistics for South Korea were added to the **TRANSPRT** database. Nearly all trade in South Korea moves by sea, as it is effectively an island economy since North Korea closes off all land routes. Exports and imports in USD and in metric tons were added for 44 ports around the country. Monthly data sourced from the Korea International Trade Association start as early as January 1988.

Chart: Busan is Korea’s oldest, largest and one of the busiest container ports in the world. By the 1990s, container volumes and ship sizes were outgrowing its terminals. Korea needed more modern, larger-scale capacity if it was to reach its goal of becoming a NE Asian transshipment hub. Busan New Port was developed with its deep water, large modern terminals and better road and rail connections. Some capacity did move from the old to the new port, but the net effect was increased capacity of roughly 15-20% in value terms. Approximately 30 billion USD worth of goods currently flow in and out of the Busan Port complex on a monthly basis.

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**GLSECTOR** → Selected Indicators by Country → **Argentina** → Iron and Crude Steel Production

Iron and steel production statistics for Argentina were added to the **GLSECTOR** database. Series reported in MT are available for primary iron production including pig and sponge iron, crude steel production and hot and cold rolled steel production including detail for flat and non-flat products. Monthly data are sourced from Acero Argentina and start in January 2016.

Chart: In 2024, the Argentinian economy contracted 1.3% as Millei’s stabilization program was taking hold. The steel industry was hit badly and y/y production decreased across the board. The industry has a scale and cost disadvantage against Brazil and China, is highly concentrated, and has a heavy dependence on the macro cycle. Under current policies, protection from imports is lower, the currency is stronger, and domestic demand is anemic. Energy-linked demand is one of the only drivers, which favors hot rolled flat products. This category has shown the most recovery since the 2024 downturn.

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- The RPLS were added for the US to **USECON** and by state in **REGIONAL**.
- Port statistics for South Korea were added to the **TRANSPRT** database.
- Iron and steel production statistics for Argentina were added to the **GLSECTOR** database.

Featured Data Additions, October 14, 2026

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The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey responses in October, for October itself or looking to the month ahead, show sharp improvements in the current results and significant improvement in expected retail sales and less broad improvement for expected wholesale orders and sales.

The rank standings of the survey categories all are below their 50% marks, their respective medians, for all the survey items except for the retail survey on sales for the time of year and for inventory ratios.

**Overview**
This means that despite some relatively pronounced recovery between September and October, conditions are still subpar for most of the categories. October levels are generally above levels posted a year ago as well and here, we're comparing the actual readings in October to October of one year ago, and the expectations for November to November of one year ago. For the most part, we're seeing significant improvements on that basis. We're also seeing significant improvements in the October-November values for current and expected activities compared to the 12-month averages. So, the U.K. economy has been through a real sort of baptism of fire over the last 12 months, with extremely weak readings having been posted and then, in October, or looking ahead to November, there is quite a remarkable improvement. But the economy was in such a deep hole that even with this sharp month-to-month jump, conditions continue to score out as weak compared to historic benchmarks.

**Retailing in real time**
The retail survey, for example, is showing sales in October for the concept ‘sales compared to a year ago’ at a -10 diffusion reading, compared to -55 in September and a 12-month average of -41. Orders, compared to a year ago, at -36 in October sharply improve; they also are up from -62 in September, but they're only back to their 12-month average, which is -36. Sales ‘for the time of year’ improve sharply to -3 in October from -40 in September; that compares to a 12-month average of -25. Without referencing the ranking statistics, it's clear that there's a sharp improvement underway, but when we reference the queue rankings, we see that it's still an improvement that has a long way to go just to get back to ‘average.’

**Retailing expectations**
Similarly, the expectations for retailing for ‘sales compared to a year ago’ in November are at -10 compared to -37 in October; that compares to a 12-month average of -34. Orders, compared to a year ago, come in at -29 for November’s expectations, up from -63 in October; that compares to a 12-month average of -35. So that marks a sharp improvement month-to-month, but a modest improvement compared to the 12-month average. Sales ‘for the time of year’ also improve to -24 for what's expected in November, from -39 in October; the -24 reading is only marginally better than the -26 average over the last 12 months.

**Current wholesaling evaluations**
The volume assessments for the current situation in wholesaling show similar improvements in October compared to September and also for the October standings relative to the 12-month averages. Sales compared to a year ago, for example, are at a -4 reading in October compared to -24 in September, which compares to a 12-month average of -26. But here again the queue standing for that October reading is only in its 34th percentile, barely above the lower third of all readings chronicled back to August 2002. Orders compared to a year ago come in at -10 compared to -22 in September, which compares to a -34 average over 12 months. Sales ‘for the time of year,’ a sort of seasonally adjusted view, actually deteriorate in wholesaling to -26 in October from -21 in September, but there is an improvement when compared to the 12-month average of -31.

**Wholesaling expectations**
Wholesaling expectations improve to -10 in November on the metric ‘sales compared to a year ago,’ a significant improvement from October’s -23 reading and an improvement from the 12-month average of -29. Orders ‘compared to a year ago’ improve to a reading of -21 in November from -28 in October; that's a nice improvement from the -37 average over 12 months. Sales ‘for the time of year,’ however, deteriorate slightly in November to -26 from -24 in October, although there is an improvement from the 12-month average of -32. Expected ‘sales for the time of year’ have an extremely low ranking, with a lower 12th percentile standing. But that was also the low ranking in retailing this month, for expected sales for the time of year in November, even though in retailing there was a sharp monthly improvement.

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**The bottom line**
So, the message from distributive trades in October is mixed. But it’s a mixed message that's still relatively positive. The various aspects of the distributive trades survey largely show improvements and some significant improvements from where they had been, especially one month ago. But one month ago, these readings really had their back against the wall; so even though there are improvements, conditions are still scored out as weak, when compared to history. However, they had been abysmally weak and so this is still a significant improvement for many measures. It's far from signaling that the economy is out of the woods, but it does suggest that the economy faces challenges that are perhaps more normal rather than the extraordinary circumstances it had seemed to face over the past year and especially one month ago.

U.K. CBI Survey Remains Weak but Sharply Rebounds

Charles Steindel

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in September showed moderate growth. In the one-month changes, three states, located in three corners of the nation--had increases greater than .5 percent (South Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire). However, 10 saw declines. Over the three months ending in September Nevada’s index rose more than 2 percent, and South Carolina’s was up more than 1.5 percent. Alabama and Hawaii saw declines. Over the last twelve months Nevada’s index rose a marked 4.77 percent, South Carolina was also up more than 4 percent, and 9 other states saw increases of over 3 percent. Of the remaining states, 34 had increases of at least 1 percent, while Hawaii, Alabama, and Connecticut registered small declines.no state saw an increase of 4 percent or more—Nevada’s 3.76 percent was the highest (six other states had increases above 3 percent). Alabama and Connecticut were down, and six others saw increases of less than one percent.  r percent (Idaho was up 3.62 percent), and six others were at or higher than three percent.

The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last three and twelve (respectively, .45 and 1.91 percent) appear to be a bit lower than what the state numbers would have suggested.

State Coincident Indexes in September 2026

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we take stock of a busy run of central bank decisions across Asia, as most of the region tightens in the face of an oil-driven inflation shock. So far this year, most central banks in the region have raised rates (chart 1). The US-Iran conflict, a renewed Fed hiking cycle and domestic pressures have driven this, with Thailand the clear exception. In Indonesia, BI held its benchmark rate at 5.75% but raised its deposit facility rate and cut reserve requirements (chart 2). Indonesian assets remain under heavy pressure, with equities hit further by MSCI’s potential downgrade to standalone status. In South Korea, the BoK paused at 3.00% after hikes in July and August, with markets eyeing November for another move. Yet much of its inflation is imported and its growth export-led, so the headline data may overstate its room to tighten (chart 3). The Philippines faces a harder trade-off. The BSP hiked for a fourth straight meeting as energy prices, El Niño risks and a record-weak peso push inflation up. Growth, meanwhile, remains a laggard (chart 4). Looking ahead, the Fed, ECB and BoJ all decide this week. The BoJ is expected to hold at 1.25% and hike in December, with solid wages and business sentiment offsetting weak household spending (chart 5). Thailand also decides this week. Having cut to 1.00% in February, the Bank of Thailand faces a soft economy weighed down by household debt and weak tourism. Relative to its pre-pandemic level, its real GDP has recovered the least in emerging Asia, a sign of deep pandemic scarring (chart 6).

**The year so far**
The past week brought a cluster of monetary policy decisions in Asia. Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Bank of Korea (BoK) held their policy rates, while the Philippines’ central bank (BSP) raised its policy rate by 25 bps. Zooming out, most central banks in the region have tightened policy so far this year (chart 1). Several forces lie behind this. The oil price shock from the US-Iran conflict has pushed inflation higher across the region. In the US, the Fed resumed hiking in September with a 25 bp move to 3.75% to 4%, its first increase in three years. Domestic factors have added to the pressure in several economies. There are exceptions, however. Malaysia has broadly stood pat, while Thailand has gone the other way. The Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate to 1.00% in February, in part to support soft domestic growth.

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**Indonesia**
In its latest decision, Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate at 5.75% last week (chart 2), with economists split between a hold and a hike. It did, however, act on two other fronts. It raised the deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 5.00% to try to attract inflows. It also cut banks’ rupiah reserve requirement by 2 ppts, from 9% to 7% in two steps, to release liquidity. BI has raised its benchmark rate by 1 ppt this year, all of it in May and June. Even so, Indonesian assets remain under pressure. Policy concerns, among other factors, have weighed on the rupiah, equities and bonds. Equities took a further hit after MSCI proposed in mid-October a two-step downgrade from emerging market to standalone status. That would exclude Indonesian stocks from MSCI’s major benchmarks and the tracker funds that follow them, raising the risk of large outflows. Separately, Indonesia continues to step up efforts against persistent peatland fires, whose haze has degraded air quality in several neighbouring countries. 

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