Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

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Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

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Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
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- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Investor sentiment worldwide is positive, especially in AI-led Asia

Sandy Batten

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After two consecutive months of disappointingly weak employment reports, the August report was much stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased 162,000 with meaningful upward revisions to both June and July, according to today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an increase of 52,000. The 23,000 decline previously reported for July was revised up to a 21,000 **increase** while the 20,000 increase previously reported for June was revised up to a 31,000 gain. The average gain over the past three months rebounded to 71,000 from 38,000 in July while the average increase over the past six months jumped to 106,000 from 54,000 in July. Both are on a modest uptrend and remain significantly stronger than in the second half of last year.

Private-sector payrolls also rose much more than expected in August after having disappointed in both June and July. They increased 127,000 against an expected increase of 46,000 with upward revisions to both June and July totaling 48,000. Government employment rebounded in August, increasing 35,000 after falling 50,000 in July. The swing from July to August was due to local government education jobs, which fell 58,000 in July but jumped 42,000 in August. It is usually difficult to seasonally adjust education jobs in the summer, but this seemed to be even more difficult this year. The July collapse in education jobs was the largest fall since September 2020 while the August rebound was the largest increase since July 2022.

The stronger-than-expected payroll report was echoed by a very strong report from the **household survey**. The civilian labor force jumped 683,000, the largest population-adjusted monthly increase since October 2020. The labor force had declined in four of the preceding five months. Employment increased 569,000 in August, again after having declined in four of the previous five months. The August rise was the largest population-adjusted monthly gain since November 2023. The number of unemployed increased 115,000 in August, its first increase in four months while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, the lowest reading since June 2025. The labor force participation rate rebounded to 61.6 in August from 61.4 in July.

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In the **establishment survey**, private-sector goods-producing jobs increased a strong 41,000 in August, the largest monthly gain since January, on top of an upwardly revised 29,000 in July. Construction jobs rose 22,000 in August, the sixth consecutive monthly increase, while manufacturing jobs increased 16,000 in August, the third consecutive monthly gain and the largest since November 2023. Private-sector service-producing jobs rose 86,000 in August following an upwardly revised 42,000 gain in July (previously +5,000). The August increase in service-producing jobs was led by a surprising 62,000 increase in leisure and hospitality jobs following monthly declines in both June and July. The World Cup had been widely expected to generate jobs but leisure jobs fell in both June and July. So, the August rebound was surprising and accounted for nearly ¾ of the total increase in service-producing jobs. Healthcare and social assistance added 28,000 jobs in August while information jobs fell 23,000, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months, and financial activities jobs declined 11,000, the fifth monthly decline in the past six months. The declines in information and financial jobs may be related to AI.

The monthly change in private-sector average hourly earnings picked up a bit in August, rising 0.3% m/m versus an upwardly revised 0.2% monthly gain in July. The 0.3% monthly increase was in line with market expectations. However, the y/y rate continued to trend down with the y/y rate sliding to 3.1% in August, the lowest rate since May 2021, from 3.2% y/y in July. Wages in private service-producing firms rose 0.3% m/m in August versus 0.1% m/m in July but the y/y rate slowed to 2.9% from 3.0% in July. Goods-producing wages rose 0.2% m/m (4.0% y/y) in August, down slightly from a 0.3% monthly gain in July.

The breadth of private job growth widened markedly in August from July with the one-month diffusion index jumping to 55.6, its highest reading since December 2024, from 52.8 in July. This was well above the key 50 level and indicates that more industries were adding jobs than losing them. Moreover, the six-month diffusion index rose to 55.8 in August, its highest reading since January 2024.

The workweek lengthened to 34.4 hours in August, the longest week since March 2024, from 34.3 hours in July. The longer workweek and the jump in employment combined to pushed up aggregate weekly hours index by 0.3% m/m, the largest monthly gain since April.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 in August with upward revisions to both June and July.
- The market consensus looked for a 52,000 increase.
- The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, the lowest rate since June 2025.
- In the household survey, employment jumped 569,000, its largest population-adjusted increase since November 2023.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, but the y/y rate continued to trend down, sliding to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2021.

U.S. Payroll Employment Surged in August

Andrew Cates

**The survey points towards higher rates**
The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey suggests that the shift towards tighter policy extends beyond the immediate market reaction. Over the next twelve months, panellists anticipate the largest rate increase in Japan, at slightly more than 40 basis points, followed by Canada at just over 20 basis points and the euro area at around 15. Much smaller increases are expected in the US and Australia, while the UK is the only economy in which rates are forecast to fall.

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**Shipping stress returns**
The next chart helps explain why the expected policy path has lately become less benign. The Baltic Exchange Dry Index, a market measure of the cost of moving bulk commodities, has climbed sharply in recent months. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has moved decisively above zero after spending much of the previous two years at or below its historical norm. Neither measure maps mechanically into producer prices, but together they signal renewed pressure on freight, capacity and traded inputs. Such pressure tends to reach PPI inflation with a lag, suggesting that part of the disinflation delivered by normalising supply chains is now being unwound.

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**More is still in the pipeline**
The latest manufacturing PMI surveys for August tell a similar story. Global manufacturing output prices rose sharply in late 2025 and, although they have eased from their recent peak, remain comfortably above the neutral level of 50. Suppliers' delivery times, meanwhile, have dropped below 50, indicating that deliveries are slowing again. The combination of longer delivery times and elevated output prices is a familiar warning that supply friction is feeding into factory-gate inflation. With oil back above $90/bbl and a new round of tariffs raising the cost of traded goods, the pressures entering the pipeline are, for the moment, being renewed about as quickly as they drain.

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**A newer squeeze, where workers are needed**
The aggregate US labour-market picture conceals a sharp sectoral rotation. Over the past three months, job-opening rates have risen most clearly in manufacturing and construction, with smaller increases in trade and government, while they have fallen in education, leisure and, most dramatically, professional services. That divergence is awkward for policy. Demand is softening in parts of the white-collar and service economy even as industries that depend heavily on foreign-born labour continue to search for workers. Tighter immigration enforcement can therefore lift wage and operating costs in bottleneck sectors while aggregate hiring and growth weaken at the same time.

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**The demand side has already yielded**
In contrast to these supply-side pressures, demand-driven inflation has been more contained. Core inflation in many G10 economies is now clustered relatively close to target, ranging from just over 0.5% in Switzerland to 2.6% in the United Kingdom. Rates in the United States and euro area remain above target but have lately been easing, while those in Canada, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland are below 2%, despite some recent firming. Wage growth has also moderated as labour markets have cooled.

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**And the cost of capital has turned**
A final theme this week lengthens the horizon. The real yield on advanced-economy government debt - the cost of capital once inflation is stripped out - fell for four decades, from the peaks of the Volcker era to the lows of the 2010s and the negative rates of the 2022 inflation, and has since turned back up to its highest since before the financial crisis. Part of the rise is cyclical; part reflects a more lasting increase in the demand for capital, as artificial intelligence, the energy transition, rearmament and widening deficits draw on a pool of saving that is no longer expanding to meet them. Whether rates settle back towards their former lows, as much of the financial system still assumes, is on this account increasingly open to question.

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Central banks dominated the financial-market narrative last week. In his first Jackson Hole address as Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh indicated that the next move in US interest rates was more likely to be an increase than a cut. The ECB, having raised rates in June, is also expected to tighten further. Government bond yields consequently remained under upward pressure across the advanced economies, with long-term yields close to their highest levels in two decades. Rising real yields weighed on equities and gold, while oil climbed back above $90 following US strikes on Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz. The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey places this shift in a broader context. Panellists expect policy rates to rise over the next twelve months in Japan, Canada and the euro area, with more modest increases anticipated in the United States and Australia; the United Kingdom is the only economy in which rates are expected to fall (chart 1). At the same time, shipping costs and global supply-chain pressures are rising again (chart 2), with renewed inflationary pressure emerging at the factory gate (chart 3). US labour demand is also shifting towards sectors where supply constraints appear most pronounced (chart 4). Yet core inflation across the G10 is now relatively close to target (chart 5). The final chart places these developments within a longer-term shift: after declining for four decades, the real cost of capital has moved decisively higher (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: The Turn Towards Tightening

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $88.58 billion in July from $71.18 billion in June ($73.26 billion originally) and $75.75 billion in May ($77.65 billion previously), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the second time in three months the gap had widened. The July deficit was the biggest since March 2025 and larger than the $75.06 billion in July 2025. A deficit of $89.5 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports fell 2.1% m/m (+9.3% y/y) in July, the third consecutive monthly fall, after a 0.8% decline in June (-0.9% initially). Imports rose 2.8% (11.2% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, following a 1.8% June decrease (unrevised).

The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value; chained 2017 dollars) expanded to $106.39 billion in July, the largest since March 2025, after narrowing to $94.36 billion in June; it was larger than the $99.22 billion in July 2025. The $92.87 billion average monthly real trade deficit in Q2'26 was the biggest since Q1'25’s record $140.54 billion shortfall. The trade balance (net exports) subtracted 1.14%-points from Q2'26 real GDP growth after subtracting 0.37%-points in Q1'26 and 0.22%-points in Q4'25.

The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) ballooned to $119.59 billion in July, the highest level since March 2025, from $101.97 billion in June; it was larger than the $102.65 billion in July 2025. Goods exports fell 3.0% (+12.1% y/y) in July, the third successive m/m decline, after a 1.8% drop in June. Goods imports recovered 3.7% (13.7% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, following a 2.6% June decrease.

The customs value goods trade deficit widened to $118.94 billion in July, the widest since March 2025, after narrowing to $101.05 billion in June; it was much larger than the $101.28 billion in July 2025. The latest figure was in line with a $118.81 billion deficit in the advance report released on August 27. Customs value exports fell 2.9% (+11.9% y/y) in July, down for the third straight month, after a 1.7% drop in June. This reflected m/m decreases in several end-use categories, including declines of 10.8% (+18.9% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 6.8% (+4.7% y/y) in other goods, 1.0% (+10.1% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, and 0.7% (+1.0% y/y) in automotive vehicles, parts & engines, while exports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (+8.1%; +0.2% y/y) and capital goods excluding autos (+2.8%; +13.1% y/y) rose m/m in July. Significantly, exports of nonmonetary gold plunged 42.0% (+7.6% y/y) in July, the fourth m/m fall in five months, following a 59.5% surge in June. Meanwhile, petroleum exports dropped 14.7% (+31.5% y/y) in July following a 19.9% slump in June and three consecutive m/m increases; nonpetroleum exports slid 0.8% (+9.4% y/y), the fourth m/m slide in five months, after a 2.4% June gain.

Customs value imports rose 3.9% (13.9% y/y) in July, up for the fifth time in six months, following a 2.5% decline in June. This reflected m/m rises of 11.4% (47.0% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos and 0.5% (-1.3% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, while imports of industrial supplies & materials (-3.2%; -11.2% y/y), other goods (-2.0%; +8.0% y/y), automotive vehicles, parts & engines (-1.4%; +3.9% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (-0.7%; -4.2% y/y) fell m/m in July. Notably, imports of nonmonetary gold advanced 17.1% (-84.9% y/y) in July following a 2.7% increase in June and two successive m/m declines. Meanwhile, petroleum imports dropped 12.2% (+7.3% y/y) in July after an 8.8% decrease in June and four straight m/m increases, while nonpetroleum imports rose 5.0% (14.3% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, reversing a 2.0% June decline.

The services trade surplus rose to $31.02 billion in July, the highest since March, after increasing to $30.79 billion in June; it was bigger than $27.58 billion in July 2025. Services exports slid 0.4% (+4.6% y/y) in July, the first m/m decline since April, following a 1.1% gain in June. This reflected m/m decreases of 3.1% (-0.6% y/y) in travel services, 2.0% (+2.4% y/y) in transport services, and 1.5% (+12.5% y/y) in financial services, while exports of charges for the use of intellectual property (+2.0%; +9.7% y/y), telecommunications, computer, & information services (+1.2%; -0.6% y/y), and insurance services (+1.1%; +2.9% y/y) increased m/m in July. Services imports fell 0.8% (+1.8% y/y), the first m/m fall since March, after a 1.1% June rise. This reflected m/m drops of 7.9% (+16.1% y/y) in charges for the use of intellectual property, 2.8% (+4.4% y/y) in transport services, and 1.4% (-8.9% y/y) in insurance services, while imports of construction services (+3.7%; +13.1% y/y), maintenance & repair services (+3.2%; -28.0% y/y), and travel services (+1.4%; +1.1% y/y) rebounded m/m in July.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed slightly to $15.24 billion in July from $15.35 billion in June. Exports climbed 3.0% (4.8% y/y) after a 2.3% June rebound; imports grew 0.8% (4.3% y/y), the weakest of three consecutive m/m increases, following a 4.5% June rise. The goods trade deficit with the European Union fell to $8.94 billion in July, the smallest since April, after widening to $10.90 billion in June, with exports down 0.2% (+3.3% y/y) and imports down 4.2% (+1.7% y/y). The trade shortfall with Japan rose to $4.18 billion in July, a five-month high, from $3.28 billion in the previous month, reflecting declines of 13.3% (+19.4% y/y) in exports and 2.9% (+4.1% y/y) in imports.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Deficit: $88.6 bil. in July, up from $71.2 bil. in June, reflecting $119.6 bil. goods deficit & $31.0 bil. services surplus.
- Exports -2.1%, third straight m/m decline, driven by a plunge in nonmonetary gold exports.
- Imports +2.8%, fifth m/m increase in six months, boosted by a rise in capital goods imports.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to $106.4 bil., largest since Mar. ’25.
- Goods trade deficits w/ China down to a still-high $15.2 bil., w/ EU down to a 3-month low, and w/ Japan up to a 5-month high.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in July to Highest Level Since March ’25

Michael J. Moran

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported no change in the initial estimate of 1.4% growth in labor productivity in the second quarter. Output in the nonfarm business sector rose 1.7%, while labor hours rose 0.3%. Both figures were essentially unrevised in the new report, showing only fractional changes that were lost in rounding. (Productivity growth is approximately equal to output growth less growth in labor hours.)

Productivity growth in Q2 was a touch firmer than the average of 1.2% in the prior two quarters, but all three trailed the quarterly averages of 2.3% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. In all of the past three quarters, the easing in productivity growth reflected slow advances in output: 1.7% in Q2 and an average of 1.4% in the prior two quarters. Output growth averaged 2.4% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Growth of labor input in recent quarters has not deviated meaningfully from other recent averages.

The slowdown in productivity growth in the past three quarters might raise concern about the underlying pace of growth. However, the recent easing is not especially alarming, as productivity often moves erratically; soft patches have occurred in the past only to revive in subsequent quarters. Still, the past three quarters have generated a downward drift in the eight-quarter moving average of growth, which is intended to smooth the variability in productivity growth. Despite this drift, it is too early to conclude that productivity growth is fading. The eight-quarter average is still noticeably firmer than the pre-pandemic performance. The softening in recent quarters should be viewed as disappointing only to those expecting a burst in efficiency gains from artificial intelligence.

Unit labor costs—hourly labor compensation relative to productivity—rose 1.2% in Q2, a tick slower than in the prior quarter and noticeably slower than results in 2024 and 2025 (2.6% and 1.9%, respectively). Labor compensation grew moderately in Q2 at 2.6%, and the offset from 1.4% productivity growth left a restrained advance in unit labor costs.

Fed officials have argued in recent months that the labor market is not a factor pushing inflation above the target of 2.0%. The results on unit labor costs support this view. If unit labor costs were the only factor driving price changes, average growth of 1.9% last year and 1.2% so far this year would suggest an inflation rate below 2.0%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Productivity gains, while still respectable, have lost a bit of vigor in recent quarters.
- The growth of unit labor costs eased slightly from an already moderate pace.

Revised Productivity in Q2: No Adjustment to Moderate Growth

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 2,000 to 206,000 in the week ending August 29, from 204,000 in the week ending August 22, revised marginally from 203,000. The four-week average was 207,250 in the August 29 week, up from 205,750 in the August 22 week. Claims remain largely range-bound at historically low levels between 200,000 and 230,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 205,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”— rose by 8,000 to 1.779 million in the week of August 22, from 1.771 million in the August 15 week, revised down from 1.778 million. The four-week moving average edged down to 1.782 million in the August 22 week from 1.787 million in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 22. 

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending August 15, the highest unemployment rates were in Minnesota (2.03%), Massachusetts (2.12%), Rhode Island (2.22%), Puerto Rico (2.57%), and New Jersey (2.64%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.24%), Florida (0.35%), Louisiana (0.37%), Alabama (0.38%), North Carolina (0.39%), Arkansas (0.42%), North Dakota (0.46%), Kansas and Tennessee (both 0.48%), and Nebraska (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.84%), New York (1.70%), Pennsylvania (1.68%), Illinois (1.54%), and Texas (1.06%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 2,000 to 206,000 in the week of August 29.
- Continuing claims rose by 8,000 to 1.779 million in the week ending August 22.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 22.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Inched Up in the Week of August 29

Robert Brusca

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The total PMIs from S&P improved in August, with only eight of the reporting jurisdictions showing month-to-month backtracking. Only seven of the reporters in the table show readings below 50, indicating a contraction of output in the reporting country or unit.

The average and median readings for the full table show improvements, by and large, month to month in the total PMI readings. The sequential progression is more complicated, with a weakening in pace over six months and an improvement over three months compared to six months.

France, Ghana, Egypt, and Qatar show persistent levels of activity below a diffusion value of 50, indicating ongoing contraction over three months, six months, and 12 months, in addition to recent monthly readings that remain below 50 (except for Ghana in the latter case).

Nine of these 25 regions have percentile standings, depicted in the far right-hand column, below the 50% mark. These represent rankings of the August values among all observations back to January 2021. Readings below 50% indicate values below their respective medians on this timeline. So, 9 of 25 countries or reporting units as of August are showing readings that are below what they produced as a median over the previous approximately 4½ years. Among some of the larger countries, this includes France, the BRIC member Brazil, and Hong Kong, which has traditionally been a strong-performing unit when it was the British Crown Colony of Hong Kong.

Over three months, only five of the reporting areas have weakened compared to their averages over six months, and only seven of the reporting units show contraction over three months.

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Conditions across the surveyed countries continue to remain somewhat touch-and-go and certainly reflect a number of different economic circumstances. Globally, there is still a war in progress, with Russia and Ukraine enmeshed in as deep a conflict as they have experienced and with some concerns that it could spread. Russia is alleged to have been creating mischief in Europe in an attempt to unsettle NATO. The U.S. has warned Russia to stop meddling and, under no circumstances, attack a NATO country.  Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran continue to trade shots back and forth as the ceasefire has collapsed, and the U.S. has put one of the most intense embargoes in place on Iran to try to force economic pain while the U.S. naval presence tries to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for trade and oil traffic. These situations continue to dog the global economy and have continued to pressure oil prices, which in turn has put central banks on the defensive. Interest rates are either going up or threatening to go up again on a global scale, although perhaps only a mild gradient of increase is on offer. But this is something we will have to continue to watch in the period ahead.

Total PMIs Show Slow Improvement in August

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Total factory orders rose a more-than-expected 0.9% m/m in July, the first monthly rise since April, reversing a 0.2% decline in June, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.5% m/m July increase. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 9.9% in July, the highest since April, from 7.6% in June (+1.6% in July 2025), while remaining far below the April 2021 peak of 39.6%. Factory orders excluding defense rebounded 1.0% (8.8% y/y), up for the first time in three months, following a 0.3% June decrease. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.6% (9.2% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, after a 0.1% June downtick.

Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts jumped 12.7% in July following a 2.9% decline in June and a 51.1% plunge in May; orders for defense aircraft & parts increased 4.9% (53.5% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, after a 7.0% June drop and an 8.9% May gain. Additionally, orders for ships & boats climbed 5.3% in July after rising 7.5% and 3.5% in the prior two months.

Durable goods orders advanced 1.1% (12.0% y/y) in July after a 0.6% increase in June (matching +1.1% m/m in the advance report on August 26), marking the fourth m/m rise in five months. The July m/m gain was led by a 2.3% rebound (13.7% y/y) in transportation equipment, followed by increases of 2.0% (19.1% y/y) in primary metals, 0.8% (15.3% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (1.6% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.6% (10.9% y/y) in fabricated metal products. In contrast, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.1%; +14.8% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-0.3%; +6.7% y/y) declined m/m in July.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, rose 0.7% (7.9% y/y) in July, the seventh m/m gain in eight months, after a 0.9% decline in June. The July m/m increase was driven by a 2.4% rebound (+26.2% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by rises of 1.7% (+2.3% y/y) in textile products, 1.2% (-0.5% y/y) in printing, 0.7% (+2.7% y/y) in paper products, 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) in beverage & tobacco products, 0.4% (-4.7% y/y) in textile mills, 0.1% (+7.7% y/y) in chemical products, 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) in food products, and 0.1% (+3.1% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, nondurable goods shipments for leather & allied products (-1.9%; -1.0% y/y) and apparel (-0.5%; +5.5% y/y) fell m/m in July.

Total shipments increased 0.8% (8.3% y/y) in July, up for the seventh time in eight months, after no change in June. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 0.7% (8.1% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, following a 0.1% June easing. Shipments of durable goods industries grew 0.9% (8.6% y/y), the eighth straight m/m rise, after a 1.0% June increase. This reflected m/m gains in almost all durable goods shipments categories, led by a 2.9% advance (12.6% y/y) in machinery, alongside rises of 1.9% (16.8% y/y) in primary metals, 1.3% (9.1% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (2.4% y/y) in wood products, 0.8% (7.0% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods, 0.7% (2.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.2% (6.6% y/y) in fabricated metal products. In contrast, durable goods shipments for computers & electronic products (-1.2%; +8.1% y/y) and nonmetallic mineral products (-0.7%; +1.5% y/y) fell m/m in July, while those for electrical equipment, appliances & components were virtually unchanged (+5.5% y/y) following five successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.9% y/y) in July, the 12th consecutive m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in June. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders climbed 0.9% (6.4% y/y), also up for the 12th straight month, on top of a 1.0% June rise. Backlogs of durable goods grew 0.6% (8.9% y/y) in July, reflecting gains of 1.9% (8.2% y/y) in primary metals, 1.1% (6.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 1.0% (5.9% y/y) in computers & electronic products, partially offset by a 0.2% decline (-2.2% y/y) in furniture & related products.

Inventories advanced 0.4% (2.0% y/y) in July, the ninth successive m/m rise, after a 0.1% uptick in June. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y), up for the sixth consecutive month, following a 0.1% June increase. Durable goods inventories grew 0.4% (2.3% y/y) in July, the 10th straight m/m gain, after a 0.4% rise in June, while nondurable goods inventories rebounded 0.3% (1.4% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, following a 0.3% June decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory orders +0.9% (+9.9% y/y) in July, first m/m increase since Apr.; 15.2% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods orders +1.1%, fourth m/m rise in five mths.; nondurable goods orders +0.7% and shipments +0.8%, seventh m/m gains in eight mths.
- Transportation orders +2.3%, led by a 12.7% jump in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +0.6%, 12th straight m/m increase.
- Inventories +0.4%, ninth consecutive m/m rise.

U.S. Factory Orders Rebound More Than Expected in July on Strong Nondefense Aircraft Orders

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Mortgage applications rose 0.8% w/w (-9.2% y/y) in the week ending August 28, after declining 1.0% w/w (-11.1% y/y) in the week ending August 21, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 2.2% w/w (-0.6% y/y) in the latest week, after inching down 0.3% w/w (-5.7% y/y) in the August 21 week.  Applications for loan refinancing fell 1.1% w/w (-18.8% y/y) in the August 28 week following a decline of 2.0% w/w (-17.1% y/y) in the August 21 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up 1bp to 6.98% in the week ending August 28 from 6.97% in the week ending August 21, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 4bps to 6.36% in the August 28 week from 6.32% in the August 21 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate inched down1bp to 6.87% in the latest week from 6.88% in the August 21 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped by 12bps to 6.18% in the August 28 week from 6.30% in the August 21 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 41.8% of total applications in the week of August 28 from 42.0% in the week ending August 21. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.0% in the latest week from 7.9% in the August 21 week.

The average size of a mortgage fell 0.9% w/w (-3.2% y/y) to $372,500 in the week ending August 28, after inching up 0.5% w/w (-1.8% y/y) to $376,000 in the week ending August 21. The average size of a purchase loan declined 1.1% w/w to $439,200 in the August 28 week after rising 0.8% w/w to $444,100 in the August 21 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 0.8% w/w to $279,800 in the week ending August 28 after declining 0.1% w/w to $282,000 in the August 21 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase rose and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged up 1bp to 6.98%.
- Average loan size fell moderately in the August 28 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the August 28 Week

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Mortgage applications dropped 2.7% w/w (-19.2% y/y) in the week of September 4, after rising 0.8% w/w (-9.2% y/y) in the week ending August 28, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.2% w/w (-6.9% y/y) in the latest week following a rise of 2.2% w/w (-0.6% y/y) in the August 28 week.  Applications for loan refinancing fell 6.2% w/w (-32.1% y/y) in the September 4 week, after a drop of 1.1% w/w (-18.8% y/y) in the August 28 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 7bps to 7.05% in the week ending September 4 from 6.98% in the week ending August 28, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 4bps to 6.40% in the September 4 week from 6.36% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 6bps to 6.93% in the latest week from 6.87% in the August 28 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped by 5bps to 6.13% in the September 4 week from 6.18% in the August 28 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 40.9% of total applications in the week of September 4 from 41.8% in the week ending August 28. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.5% in the latest week from 8.0% in the August 28 week.

The average size of a mortgage rose 2.1% w/w (-5.2 % y/y) to $380,200 in the week ending September 4 after falling 0.9% w/w (-3.2% y/y) to $372,500 in the week ending August 28. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.5% w/w to $445,600 in the September 4 week, following a decline of 1.1% w/w to $439,200 in the August 28 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 2.1% w/w to $285,800 in the week ending September 4 after edging down 0.8% w/w to $279,800 in the week ending August 28. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose to 7.05%.
- Average loan size rose in the September 4 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Declined in the September 4 Week 

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**TRANSPRT** → Passenger Statistics → Comunidad de **Madrid** Public Transport Ridership

Public transportation ridership data for Madrid was added to the **TRANSPRT** database. These data cover the four major transit modes operating across Madrid — the Metro, the public city bus, interurban bus and commuter rail - along with an aggregate for total ridership. Daily data are sourced from Consorcio Regional de Transportes de Madrid and start as early as January 2010.

Chart: Madrid achieved an all-time record in 2025 with over 1.75 billion passengers across its entire public transport system, representing a 3.75% increase over 2024 – and the momentum continues into 2026 where the YTD figures are currently higher than in 2025. The Metro is the clear workhorse with 45.3% of all trips in the region being made on the Madrid underground. Metro ridership grew 3% to reach 736.9 million passengers in 2025. The overall ridership story in Madrid is one of strong urban mobility expansion, particularly centered on its Metro system.

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