Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Regional Fed surveys showing further manufacturing acceleration in August

Robert Brusca

260821E.jpg

The S&P PMIs show a mixture of strength and weakness in August. However, the readings on average show the composite stronger in August than in July, the manufacturing readings stronger in August than in July, and the services readings slightly stronger in August than in July. That suggests there's broad sectoral improvement underway. However, there's still a great deal of irregularity. The composite indexes rose in five of the eight early reporting countries, with Australia, France, and Germany showing monthly weakening. Despite the weakening in France and Germany, the European Monetary Union showed better conditions on balance. Manufacturing sectors improved in August except for the United States, India, and the United Kingdom. France and Germany also had the only weakening service sectors in August.

Apart from August, the three-month, six-month, and 12-month averages, compiled only on completed data through July, show a bit more weakening. Five countries show composite readings weakening over three months compared to six months, with only the U.S., India, and Australia getting stronger. Over six months, all of the reporters’ composite values are weaker compared with their 12-month values on average, with only Japan getting stronger. For 12 months compared to 12 months ago, all the reporters are stronger and they're stronger on almost all of their readings except for the U.S. The U.S. composite is weaker over 12 months on average, compared to 12 months ago, and its service sector is weaker. The EMU composite is stronger, but the service sector is weaker compared to 12 months ago.

However, in terms of standings, the queue percentile standings for the group are quite good and have been clearly progressing over recent months. The average composite queue standing is in its 60th percentile. For manufacturing, it's in its 63rd percentile, while for services, the average is only in its nearly 49th percentile, just barely below its historic median. Manufacturing PMIs are on a long climb higher. The composite queue readings are dragged down by services, particularly in India but also in Germany and France. The U.K. and Japan have readings above 50 but by the thinnest of margins. The U.S. has a strong service sector by ranking, in its 80th percentile compared to where it's been since 2021. The next strongest ranking is a 69th percentile standing in Australia, and after that, it's a 57th percentile standing in the EMU. The services reading has been in a trendless oscillation since at least mid-2022.

260821.jpg

Global conditions are changing in some ways for the worse since the Middle East is looking more intractable. Markets seem to see oil prices as higher for longer as Iran has a death-grip on the Strait of Hormuz. And that is about the only leverage it has, except for its ability to shoot off a rogue missile or drone to try to catch defense systems napping or to attack a ship in the strait. It’s more than enough to prevent normalcy. For now, it is a very uneasy stalemate. It has markets on edge, inflation rates are rising, and bond markets are on their back foot or worse. Fiscal budgets are already stretched globally, and more military spending appears to be on tap. For now, equity markets are still plugged into optimism.

Flash S&P PMIs Show Ongoing Improvement Amid Unsettled Geopolitics

Sandy Batten

260820N50.jpg

260820O50.jpg

The Current Activity Diffusion Index from the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia rose further to 47.4 in August, a five-year high, after having jumped to 41.4 in July from 10.3 in June. A reading of 25.0 for August was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Almost 57% of respondents reported increases in current activity (up from 53% in July and 32% in June), far exceeding the 9.6% reporting decreases (down from 11.7% in July and 21.9%); 28.8% of respondents reported no change in current activity (up from 24.% in July). Survey responses were collected from August 10- August 17.

The headline index is the answer to just one question: whether activity increased, decreased or was unchanged from the previous month. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from the five key component indexes using the methodology employed to construct the national ISM index. This figure slipped to 57.5 in August from 58.1 in July but was still well above the critical 50 value that separates contraction from expansion.

For the component indexes, the current new orders and shipments indexes both declined in August but remained above their long-run non-recession averages. The new orders index fell 7 points to 30.1. Almost 46% of respondents reported an increase in new orders, 16% reported a decrease, and 36% reported no change. The shipments index declined from 33.7 to 27.7 in August with 41% of respondents reporting an increase (down from 45% in July) and 12% reporting a decrease versus 9% in July. Delivery times continued to lengthen in August but at a slower pace than in July with the index slipping to 3.7 in August from 9.6 in July.

The August survey showed tighter labor market conditions. The employment index rose 18 points to 27.9, its highest reading since April 2022. Nearly 33% of respondents reported an increase in employment levels (up from 13% in July), 5% reported decreases (up from 3% in July), and 62 percent reported no change (down from 83%), the lowest reading in two years. The average workweek index rose from 14.0 to 26.5, the highest reading since December 2021.

Both price indexes declined in August to their lowest readings since February but remained above their long-run non-recession averages. The prices paid index fell 13 points to 40.9 in August. Nearly 41% of respondents reported increases in input prices (down from 54% in July), while none reported decreases (unchanged); 59% reported no change (up from 46%). The current prices received index declined 10 points to 17.7. More than 21% of respondents reported increases in the prices of their own goods, 3% reported decreases, and 74% reported no change.

The diffusion index for future general activity jumped 39 points to 73.6 in August, its highest reading since August 1983. The future new orders index increased 31 points to 66.0, and the future shipments index rose 24 points to 63.5, each reaching its highest reading in more than five years. Firms continue to expect increases in employment over the next six months. The future employment index rose 6 points to 35.4, after having declined for four consecutive months. Both future price indexes moved further above their long-run averages, mostly offsetting last month’s declines. The future prices paid index rose 6 points to 62.9, and the future prices received index increased 18 points to 59.8. The index for future capital expenditures increased 18 points to 48.2, its highest reading in 53 years.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The indexes range from -100 to +100 with positive values indicating an increase in activity. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260820P50.jpg

260820Q50.jpg

- The headline index increased to 47.4 in August, a five-year high, after having jumped to 41.4 in July. Expectations were for a meaningful decline to 25.0.
- However, the ISM-adjusted index edged down to 57.5 in August from 58.1 in July but was still well above the critical 50 level.
- Price indexes declined in August but remained elevated.
- Delivery times continued to lengthen but at a slower pace than in July.
- The diffusion index for future general activity climbed 39 points to 73.6 this month, its highest reading since August 1983.

U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Rose to Five-Year High in August

Andrew Cates

**US Data Soften, and the Short End Takes Note**
One of the week’s most noteworthy developments has been the loss of momentum in the US data. Citigroup’s economic surprise index for the United States, shown in the chart below, has rolled over in recent weeks as activity releases — a disappointing employment report chief among them — have fallen short of expectations. The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects the market’s read on the Federal Reserve’s likely path, has moved a little lower in sympathy, as investors trim the odds of the further tightening that a hawkish July meeting had briefly put on the table. The message is that the short end of the curve remains, as it should, data-dependent and cyclical. What makes the present moment unusual is the contrast with the long end which, as some of the charts that follow help to explain, has been moving firmly in the opposite direction.

260820Z1.jpg

**Japan’s Weak Domestic Demand Ties the BoJ’s Hands**
Japan sits awkwardly in the current conjuncture. The yen has fallen to levels last seen decades ago, and the pressure on the authorities to intervene, and on the Bank of Japan to tighten in the currency’s defence, has been building. Yet the latest national accounts, decomposed in the chart below, show why the Bank of Japan may hesitate. Growth has slowed through the first half of the year, and the composition is unflattering: private demand has been soft, and such growth as there has been has leaned heavily on net exports rather than on domestic strength. A central bank confronting a weak domestic economy is poorly placed to raise rates aggressively merely to support its currency, and that is precisely the bind in which the Bank of Japan now finds itself.

260820Z2.jpg

**Rearmament Adds a New Claim on the Public Purse**
Among the structural forces now bearing on long-term rates, few are as visible as the marked increase in defence spending. The chart below sets military expenditure as a share of GDP in 2025 against its level three years earlier, and the increases are both broad and steep — most dramatic among the front-line states of Europe, where Poland, the Baltics and the Nordics have raised their burdens by two to three points of GDP in the space of three years. This is a large and, for the most part, non-negotiable claim on public resources, arriving when budgets are already stretched. Financed as it largely must be by borrowing, it adds directly to the supply of government debt that the world’s saving must absorb — and so to the upward pressure on the rates at which that debt is issued. For more discussion about this check out the analysis from Peter D’Antonio and Shashwat Indeevar in [Efforts to Mitigate Military Risk Have Unintended Consequences.](https://www.haver.com/articles/efforts-to-mitigate-military-risk-have-unintended-consequences)

260820Z3.jpg

**Where the Strain Falls: The Sectoral Balances**
To see where these pressures come to rest, it helps to view the economy through the flow-of-funds accounts, in which the financial balances of the four sectors — households, companies, government and the rest of the world — must sum to zero. The chart below sets out that anatomy for the advanced economies. Households remain in surplus almost everywhere, and governments are in deficit across the board — the United States most strikingly. But the column that matters most is the corporate one. For two decades the corporate sector was a dependable net saver, quietly supplying the rest of the economy with funds; that is no longer uniformly so. Several of the majors — Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden among them — now show corporates in deficit, as firms begin to invest more than they earn. The significance is that the corporate sector is turning from a supplier of the world's saving into a competitor for it, just as governments remain the borrowers of first resort. With two of the four sectors now drawing on the same finite pool at once, the price of that saving — the real long-term interest rate — has every reason to rise.

260820Z4.jpg

**And Where the Saving Is: The Glut, Now Chinese**
If governments are competing for the world’s saving, it is worth asking where that saving actually resides. The chart below traces the pool of global saving over time and, more tellingly, its composition. Two decades ago Ben Bernanke described a global saving glut concentrated in emerging Asia and among the oil exporters; that glut has not dispersed but concentrated further, with China’s share rising from around a twentieth of the world total at the turn of the century to more than a quarter today. This is the reservoir on which deficit governments and a reviving investment cycle must both draw. Whether it continues to be recycled into Western debt as readily as before — a matter increasingly bound up with politics as much as economics — will do much to determine how far long-term rates ultimately climb.

260820Z5.jpg

**Will It Pay? The Productivity Question**
Our final chart brings the argument to its decisive question. A higher cost of capital is bearable if the investment it finances raises the economy's productive capacity, for then the growth arrives to service it. Total factor productivity — the part of output growth not explained by adding more capital or labour, and so the nearest thing economists have to a measure of pure efficiency — is where that payoff would show up. Raw productivity figures are hard to read over short horizons, however, because firms work their existing machines and employees harder when demand is strong and ease off when it is weak. The San Francisco Fed's series, shown in the chart below, separates the two effects: the pale bars capture that cyclical variation in the utilisation of capital and labour, while the darker line strips it out to leave utilisation-adjusted TFP — the cleaner read on genuine, underlying efficiency. It is the darker line that should give pause. Even as capital spending on artificial intelligence and its infrastructure has surged, underlying productivity growth has slipped into negative territory in the most recent quarters. It is early, and the gains from a technology of this kind may take years to appear in the aggregate data. But the figures are a reminder that the payoff on which the whole edifice rests is, for now, a matter of faith more than evidence — and that the cost of capital is rising regardless.

260820Z6.jpg

Financial markets have been unsettled this week by a familiar cast of forces, though the balance among them has shifted. Renewed tension in the Middle East has nudged oil prices higher without seriously disturbing the wider tone, while in Japan the yen’s slide to multi-decade lows kept the authorities on intervention watch and the Bank of Japan under pressure to act. But the development that has dominated is the continued climb in long-term interest rates, which across the major economies now stand close to their highest in two decades — a move driven far more by real yields than by any meaningful revival of inflation fears. That the long end should be rising even as disappointing US data have led investors to pare back their expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening — the short end falling as the long end climbs — is a thread running through this week's charts. We begin with that near-term picture: a softening in US data surprises and the accompanying, albeit very modest, easing at the short end of the curve (chart 1), together with the fragile state of domestic demand in Japan that complicates the yen’s defence (chart 2). We then turn to the deeper forces pushing long rates higher. Rearmament is adding a large and largely non-negotiable claim on the public purse, with defence budgets across Europe climbing steeply (chart 3). The flow-of-funds accounts show where the strain comes to rest, with governments across the advanced world in deficit and drawing on a finite pool of saving (chart 4) — saving that is concentrated, more than ever, in China (chart 5). And beneath it all lies the question of whether the investment now under way will deliver the productivity gains needed to justify a higher cost of capital; the latest US figures give little comfort (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/5D2NHL1oiu4EUCS52X7PVT?utm_source=generator&si=ced4333fe0a54b1d" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: The Cost of Capital Climbs

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260820A1.jpg

260820B1.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 6,000 to 206,000 in the week ending August 15, from 212,000 in the week ending August 8, revised from 209,000. The four-week average was 204,000 in the August 15 week, up from 199,750 in the August 8 week. Claims remain largely range-bound at historically low levels between 200,000 and 230,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 210,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”— increased by 18,000 to 1.799 million in the week ending August 8 from 1.781 million in the week of August 1, revised from 1.777 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.789 million in the August 8 week from 1.787 million in the August 1 week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 8.

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending August 1, the highest unemployment rates were in Oregon (2.00%), Minnesota (2.09%), Massachusetts (2.12%), Rhode Island (2.20%), Puerto Rico (2.57%), and New Jersey (2.62%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.27%), Florida (0.36%), Alabama and North Carolina (both 0.40%), Louisiana (0.43%), Arkansas (0.48%), and North Dakota (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.90%), New York (1.70%), Pennsylvania (1.69%), Illinois (1.57%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260820C1.jpg

260820D1.jpg

- New claims declined by 6,000 to 206,000 in the week of August 15.
- Continuing claims rose by 18,000 to 1.799 million in the week ending August 8.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 8.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of August 15

260820E.jpg

The U.K. CBI (Confederation of British Industry) survey saw orders advance to a diffusion reading of -25 in August from -45 in July. Despite this huge shift, the percentile standing of the August measure is only in its 27th percentile. This ranking emerges after the third largest month-to-month change in the orders reading since late 1993.

In contrast, export orders made their largest monthly change in their month-to-month reading in August, and that boosted the diffusion reading to zero in August from -33 in July. This has impact of boosting the rank or queue standing to its 86.9 percentile, a strong historic standing. We are seeing strong increases in orders in August. These improvements are not always boosting the readings into a zone of strength or even normalcy, but they have taken the readings out of the extreme weak tails of their respective distributions.

**Looking ahead...**
The output volume diffusion reading, looking ahead to the next three months, improved to -7 in August from -30 in July. The month-to-month change in the reading is the seventh largest back-to-back improvement in that series. The expected output reading, however, is still only in its 16th percentile despite the extremely large monthly change.

On the other hand, the price expectations jumped to 22 in August from 11 in July, logging the 19th largest month-to-month increase, again on data back to late 1993. Average prices rank in their 84th percentile. So, their recent sizeable rise has pushed them up to the high distribution levels. Manufacturing output, which lags the CBI survey, is still much weaker and draws from a weaker period, judging from the CBI readings.

Growth seems to have picked up, but unfortunately so has inflation. The U.K. CPI-H measure rose by 0.6% m/m in July. It is now on an accelerating plane from 3.1% over 12 months to 3.4% annualized over six months to an annual pace of 3.7% over three months. Core inflation has been excessive and has popped over three months.

The U.K. situation remains a difficult one. Economic growth has not been very good. The party leader and labor party PM recently stepped down and has been replaced. Inflation has been excessive for a while. Despite deflating, inflation is moving back up again, and despite the unwind, it did not get back to 2% when it eased.

The pick-up in the CBI index is encouraging, but it is coming with increased price pressures. Relatively more of the improvement in orders is from exports, so the domestic economy is not looking like it will generate much in the way of sustainable inflation. A lot of inflation is still coming from energy, and no one really knows how to handicap that.

260820.jpg

United Kingdom

U.K. Industry Shows Sharp Improvement in CBI Survey

260819A2.jpg

260819B2.jpg

Mortgage applications edged down 0.4% w/w (-10.6% y/y) in the week ending August 14, after rising 3.6% w/w (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending August 7, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 2.0% w/w (-3.4% y/y) in the latest week, following a rise of 2.5% (-1.4% y/y) in the August 7 week.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 1.5% w/w (-18.4% y/y) in the August 14 week after rising 5.0% w/w (-22.2% y/y) in the August 7 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was unchanged at 6.96% in the week ending August 14 from the week ending August 7, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined 4bps to 6.29% in the August 14 week from 6.33% in the August 7 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate edged up 2ps to 6.85% in the latest week from 6.83% in the in the August 7 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined by 4bps to 6.26% in the August 14 week from 6.30% in the August 7 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.9% of total applications in the week of August 14 from 40.7% in the week ending August 7. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to 7.7% in the latest week from 7.9% in the August 7 week.

The average size of a mortgage declined by 1.4% w/w (-3.5% y/y) to $374,100 in the week ending August 14 after inching down 0.7% w/w (-4.9% y/y) to $379,300 in the week ending August 7. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.2% w/w (+2.7% y/y) to $440,500 in the August 14 week after a similar decline of 0.2% w/w (+3.4% y/y) to $441,300 in the August 7 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 2.4% w/w (-17.0% y/y) to $282,200 in the latest week after declining 0.7% w/w (-21.1% y/y) to $289,200 in the August 7 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined, while applications for loan refinancing rose in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans was unchanged at 6.96%.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Down in the August 14 Week

260819E.jpg

**Inflation in the Euro Area**
Inflation in the euro area was up in July, rising 0.5% month-to-month after prices fell by 0.1% in June. Core inflation notched up, increasing 0.3% in the month after rising by just 0.1% in June. Core inflation is steadily ramping up. Headline inflation ramps up but eases off over three months compared to six months.

Month-to-month inflation in July accelerated in over 84% of the categories. June was an anomaly with inflation accelerating in only 15% of the categories after accelerating in 46% of the categories in May. Sequential diffusions find inflation higher over three months than over six months in 38.5% of the categories, and in 69% of the categories over six months compared to 12 months. Inflation rates over 12 months are higher than 12 months ago also in 69% of the categories.

At 2.9% over 12 months, ECB inflation is above its targeted pace of 2%. At 2.5%, core inflation is also overshooting but not as badly. The graphic shows that inflation is overshooting in each of the four largest monetary union members. Food inflation is below 2% (0.8%), annual clothing & footwear inflation is low (0.1%), furnishing & household equipment inflation is low (0.4%), and communications inflation (1.7%) and recreation & culture inflation (1.5%) are both still within the bounds sought by the ECB. That’s five of eleven categories below 2%, running at their own individual paces. Housing & utilities costs and transportation are both logging inflation numbers far above the 2% mark; both are affected by rising energy costs. Education and hotels & restaurants are showing strong pressure for an assortment of other reasons.

260819.jpg

Clearly, the way forward for the ECB is going to depend a great deal on developments in the Middle East and the ease of traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Europe has even deeper energy problems. Its inventories have been run down and are low. Those countries using nuclear power have found that drought conditions in Europe have reduced the flow of water across their major waterways and led to a reduction in nuclear power output or in some cases a shuttering of nuclear facilities because not enough cooling water can be obtained for reactors. Not only that, but transportation has been choked, supply lines interrupted, and deliveries delayed.

Come winter, Europe may have more power issues, as it will be depending on LNG shipments for its winter power.

Europe faces challenges. The inflation picture, previously benign, has become acute or at least difficult. Europeans can be angry at the U.S. for backing Israel and participating in an attack on Iran, an act that jolted European inflation out of its target path into the danger zone. But the U.S.-Israel joint action did destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, which it is now rebuilding. It exposed Iran as having longer-range missiles that it denied possessing. While the war, often now referred to as Trump’s war, is unpopular, you can ask yourself: would you really have preferred to let Iran go and develop nuclear weapons and make more long-range missiles so you could have cheap gasoline, for now? Would that world have been safer or better than this world? No one likes war. But Iran, acting through its vassal groups in the region, precipitated all this, starting with the attack on Israel by Hamas. One thing led to another and put us on this path. We cannot go back; time does not rewind. But the way forward now is much harder to see. And the way ahead seems to have a lot more risk, as levels of fiscal debt and the demand for military spending stoke more inflation and push monetary policy to be tighter. The war between Ukraine and Russia continues; Russia may be taking steps to make it broader. It is a series of events now feeding on itself, and it is a difficult and dangerous dynamic. It is no longer just about growth, monetary, and fiscal policy. The whole outlook is much more complicated.

Europe

Inflation in the Euro Area Gets Worse

Winnie Tapasanun

260818R23.jpg

260818S23.jpg

Industrial production (IP) rose a slightly less-than-expected 0.2% m/m in July, the third monthly rise in four months, following an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in June (+0.1% initially) and no change in May (+0.1% previously), according to data from the Federal Reserve Board. A 0.3% m/m July increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate held at 1.1% in July and June (1.4% in July 2025). The July IP index at 103.0 was 3.7% above a low of 99.3 in November 2024 and 3.8% above a low of 99.2 in January 2024.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production grew 0.2% (1.2% y/y) in July, the fifth m/m gain in six months, after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in June (0.0% initially) and a flat reading in May (+0.1% previously). Durable goods production advanced 0.7% (3.9% y/y) in July, the seventh consecutive m/m rise, adding to a 0.2% increase in June. Within durables, almost all categories rose m/m in July, led by a 2.4% rebound (0.6% y/y) in wood products, followed by rises of 1.9% (9.9% y/y) in computer & electronic products, 1.4% (4.5% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 1.4% (1.6% y/y) in primary metals, 1.3% (6.2% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 1.2% (2.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.8% (4.4% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.4% (2.8% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 1.6% (8.2% y/y), the sixth successive m/m rise, after a 1.0% June increase. To the downside, durable goods categories for motor vehicles & parts (-2.1%; +2.1% y/y) and nonmetallic mineral products (-0.2%; +3.8% y/y) posted m/m decreases in July.

Nondurable goods production fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) in July, the second m/m fall in three months, following a 0.5% increase in June. The July output decline was led by a 2.5% drop (-2.5% y/y) in printing & related support activities, followed by decreases of 1.9% (+0.5% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.7% (-1.6% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, 0.7% (-3.5% y/y) in paper, and 0.2% (-2.9% y/y) in chemicals. To the upside, the following nondurable goods categories rose m/m in July, including output rises of 0.8% (-0.1% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 0.2% (0.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, and 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in plastics & rubber products.

Utilities output rose 0.5% (0.7% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m gain and the fifth in six months, following a 0.1% uptick in June (+0.4% initially), reflecting a 0.5% increase (1.3% y/y) in electric utilities output and a 0.4% rebound (-3.0% y/y) in natural gas utilities output. Mining activity grew 0.2% (1.0% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.3% June increase (+0.4% initially).

By **market groups**, business equipment output rose 0.8% (6.6% y/y), the eighth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.4% increase in June. Construction supplies production advanced 0.8% (2.4% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.1% June uptick. Materials production increased 0.3% (1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four months, after a 0.2% June rise. In contrast, consumer goods output fell 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rebound in June, reflecting declines of 1.4% (-1.6% y/y) in durable consumer goods and 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries strengthened 1.9% (11.8% y/y) in July after a 1.6% increase in June, marking the fourth successive m/m gain and the ninth in 10 months. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rise in June, and manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts rose 0.3% (0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% increase; both registered the fifth m/m gain in six months.

Capacity utilization inched up to 76.3% in July, the highest since July 2025, from an upwardly revised 76.2% in June (76.1% initially). The result matched the forecast by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The July reading was 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization edged up to 76.0% in July, the highest since June 2024, from an upwardly revised 75.9% in June (75.7% previously). The July rate was 2.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

260818T23.jpg

260818U23.jpg

- July IP +0.2% (+1.1% y/y), third m/m increase in four months.
- Manufacturing +0.2% (+1.2% y/y), w/ durables +0.7% and nondurables -0.4%.
- Selected high-tech +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths.; motor vehicles -2.1%, first m/m drop since March.
- Utilities +0.5% (+0.7% y/y), fourth straight m/m rise, led by a 0.5% gain in electric utilities output.
- Mining +0.2% (+1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four mths.
- Key categories in market groups mostly increase.
- Capacity utilization up to 76.3%, a one-year high; mfg. capacity utilization up to 76.0%, highest since June ’24.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output Up in July, Extending Growth Trend

large_260825F29.jpg

medium_260825F29.jpg

small_260825F29.jpg

thumbnail_260825F29.jpg

260825F29.jpg

large_260825G29.jpg

medium_260825G29.jpg

small_260825G29.jpg

thumbnail_260825G29.jpg

260825G29.jpg

New single-family home sales fell 10.5% m/m (-6.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 units in July, below expectations, following an upwardly revised 7.6% gain to 678,000 in June (initially +1.6%, 628,000) and an upwardly revised 1.7% decrease to 630,000 in May (previously -4.3%, 618,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected July sales of 620,000. July marked the third m/m decline in four months and the lowest level since January, down 19.8% from a high of 757,000 in November 2025 but up 13.5% from a low of 535,000 in July 2022. The July fall coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.54%, the highest since August 2025, from 6.49% in June, according to Freddie Mac.

Regionally, July new home sales showed a mixed performance. Sales in the Midwest plunged 42.7% (-50.6% y/y) to 43,000 in July, the third m/m drop in four months and the lowest level since September 2012, after an 8.5% decrease to 75,000 in June. Sales in the South fell 13.0% (-5.2% y/y) to 383,000, down for the third time in four months, following a 15.2% June recovery to 440,000. To the upside, sales in the Northeast surged 30.3% (95.5% y/y) to 43,000, the fourth m/m gain in five months and the highest level since December 2025, following a 10.0% June increase to 33,000. Sales in the West rebounded 6.2% (2.2% y/y) to 138,000, the strongest reading since April, reversing a 4.4% June decline to 130,000. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 63.1% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home fell 2.3% (-0.9% y/y) to $393,800 in July, the lowest since July 2021, following a 3.2% decline to $403,100 in June and two consecutive m/m increases. The median sales price was 14.4% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022 but 9.1% above a low of $361,100 in June 2021. The average sales price of a new home, up for the second time in three months, rose 4.1% (5.4% y/y) to $508,800 following a 7.3% June drop to $488,900 (the lowest since July 2025). The average price was 7.0% above a low of $475,600 in August 2024 but 6.0% below a peak of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rebounded 1.9% (-1.6% y/y) to 488,000 in July, the third m/m increase in four months and the highest level since October 2025, after a 1.4% decline to 479,000 in June. The latest figure was 15.1% above a low of 424,000 in May 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.6 months in July, the highest since January, from 8.5 months in June, remaining above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023 but below a high of 10.3 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market fell to 3.2 months in July, the lowest since January and the first m/m decline since August 2025, after registering at 3.5 months for four straight months. The latest reading was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_260825H29.jpg

medium_260825H29.jpg

small_260825H29.jpg

thumbnail_260825H29.jpg

260825H29.jpg

large_260825I29.jpg

medium_260825I29.jpg

small_260825I29.jpg

thumbnail_260825I29.jpg

260825I29.jpg

- Sales -10.5% m/m (-6.3% y/y) to 607,000 in July; down 19.8% from a November high.
- Sales m/m down in the Midwest (-42.7%) and South (-13.0%); up in the Northeast (+30.3%) and West (+6.2%).
- Sales y/y plunging in the Midwest (-50.6%); surging in the Northeast (+95.5%).
- Median sales price -2.3% m/m to $393,800, a five-year low; avg. price +4.1% m/m to $508,800.
- Unsold inventory +1.9% m/m (-1.6% y/y) to 488,000, highest since Oct. '25.
- Months' supply up to 9.6 mths., a six-month high.

U.S. New Home Sales Hit a Six-Month Low in July

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

Tokyo

London

Singapore

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. New Home Sales Hit a Six-Month Low in July

Recent Commentaries

Putting Current Bond Yields into Historical Perspective

No Free Lunch for the Fed or the Treasury

A Modest Monetary Policy Proposal for Fed Chairman Warsh to Consider

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative in July After June’s Upwardly Revised Positive Reading

Sweden’s Housing Market Shows Signs of Life

Economic Letter from Asia: Heating Up

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Regional Fed surveys showing further manufacturing acceleration in August

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints