Global| Apr 02 2021State Coincident Indexes in January
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in January show a wide range of variation in the extent of recovery. In the three months ending in January 48 states showed gains (the exceptions were Maine and New [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in January show a wide range of variation in the extent of recovery. In the three months ending in January 48 states showed gains (the exceptions were Maine and New Mexico). Hawaii and Michigan registered very rapid gains (these are not annualized) of more than 10 percent. 17 other states saw their indexes increase more than 2 percent. In contrast, 5 states experienced growth under 1 percent. The 24 remaining states grew between 1 and 2 percent—a pace suggesting a decent, but not spectacular, recovery. It's still the case, even after recalibration of the indexes to incorporate rebenchmarked state labor data (and some other changes) that the national index, rising only .9 percent from October to January, is utterly unrepresentative of state outcomes (New York was the only very large state whose index was anywhere close to the nation's).
Over the 12 months ending in January the indexes in Idaho, Utah, and Georgia rose. West Virginia's index fell 19 percent, and 5 other states—mainly in the Northeast, including New York and Massachusetts—saw drops of more than 10 percent. Smaller declines were more evident in Mountain and Plains states, while larger drops were more likely in the Northeast and Middle West.
Movements in the indexes from December to January were comparable to the 3-month changes: West Virginia joined New Mexico and Maine on the negative side, while Michigan's 9.4 percent surge was far and away on top. 18 other states—including Hawaii—joined Michigan in seeing strong increases of more than 1 percent. 3 states—including New York—had meager rises of less than .25 percent.
The January release is out at this "late" date because of the standard late release of January state labor market data. The February release will be issued on April 9.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.