Global| Jun 29 2021State Coincident Indexes in May
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in May showed increased divergence in the pace of recovery across the nation. In the three months ending in May two states (Alaska and Wyoming) registered declines, [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in May showed increased divergence in the pace of recovery across the nation. In the three months ending in May two states (Alaska and Wyoming) registered declines, and 13 others had increases of less than 1 percent. Hawaii, though, grew nearly 5 percent over that period, as tourism began to revive, and 5 more states had gains of more than 3 percent. However, the state gains appear to be typically more robust than the comparable national figure, which showed an increase of only 1.4 percent (30 states—including New York, California, and Texas—had larger increases).
Over the 12 months ending in May all states registered gains, but again the range was enormous—from West Virginia's staggering 95.6 percent to New Mexico's modest 4.1 percent. A total of 37 states had double-digit increases. Again, the national figure (a 7.7 percent increase) was simply inconsistent with the state numbers. At the least, this suggests careful examination of any state that might proudly point that it grew “faster” than the nation (47 did, but surprisingly, not Texas—one may have thought recovery from February's power outages would have boosted recent gains in its index).
44 states reported increases in their indexes from April to May. 10 had increases above 1 percent, led by Hawaii's 1.7 percent. The only notable decline was the .5 percent drop in Ohio. 13 states set new record highs for their indexes; these were mainly small and medium-sized states, generally in the Plains and Rockies, but Georgia and North Carolina are in the group.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.