Global| Nov 25 2020State Coincident Indexes in October
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in October were once again positive, but very mixed. 13 states saw increases of 10 percent or more in the three months since July, with Massachusetts once again way [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in October were once again positive, but very mixed. 13 states saw increases of 10 percent or more in the three months since July, with Massachusetts once again way in the lead, with an increase of nearly 37 percent—almost double number 2 Vermont (one supposes relieved this year of the burden of expecting championships for the Red Sox and Patriots, Bay State residents have been able to concentrate on more mundane matters). On the other side, 2 states—Hawaii and Kentucky—have seen their indexes drop over this period. The comparable national index is up only 2.4 percent over the last three months, remaining strikingly at odds with the state readings (for instance, Texas's 2.9 percent increase was the smallest of any truly large state).
6 states (Utah, Arkansas, Nebraska, Georgia, Idaho, and Missouri) registered gains in their indexes over the last 12 months. The same number of states experienced declines greater than 10 percent; New York's 11.4 percent drop being the most salient for the national picture, while Hawaii's 30.7 percent plunge was more than twice as large as number 49 Maryland. Over the last month (September to October) two smaller states with very different economies, West Virginia and Rhode Island, clocked double-digit increases, with 8 states seeing declines. To get an idea of how idiosyncratic movements have recently been, Kentucky saw its index fall 4 ½ percent—more than 15 percentage points weaker than its West Virginia (Tennessee, though, also reported a drop). In general, as has recently been the case, northern industrial states tended to do better in September-October, though not all (for instance, New Jersey, which had been rising rapidly, fell).
With the general rebound, indexes in a number of states in October were above their pre-recession peak. These are Arkansas, Georgia, Nebraska, and Utah (Kentucky set a record high in September, prior to October's plunge). Hawaii is far and away the state furthest from its earlier peak, but a number of other states, including Nevada, New York, and West Virginia, have indexes at unusually low levels.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.