Global| Oct 02 2020State GDP in 2020:Q2
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
Unsurprisingly, all states (as well as DC) saw double-digit rates of decline in real GDP decline in the second quarter. The range was wide, varying from DC's -20.4 percent to Hawaii and Nevada's -42.2. In general, the declines were [...]
Unsurprisingly, all states (as well as DC) saw double-digit rates of decline in real GDP decline in the second quarter. The range was wide, varying from DC's -20.4 percent to Hawaii and Nevada's -42.2. In general, the declines were larger in more industrialized states, states more heavily dependent on travel and tourism (as Hawaii and Nevada clearly illustrate), and states which had longer and stricter lockdowns. In general, states in the Northeastern quadrant of the nation saw larger declines than those elsewhere. Delaware and Utah stood out for “modest” rates of declines (respectively, 21.9 and 22.4 percent). Tennessee was an anomaly on the other ends, with a 40.4 percent rate of decline in a state one would not think of as very dependent on travel. However, the drop in travel-related sectors was exceptionally large in the Volunteer State.
Most likely, all—or virtually all—states experienced double-digit rates of growth in the third quarter. An interesting question will be if any fully reversed the declines in the first half of the year.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.