Global| Mar 25 2020State Personal Income
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
BEA has released the first estimates of state personal income for the fourth quarter of 2019 and for 2019 as a whole. Right now interest in these figures may be mostly antiquarian. For 2019 as a whole, the fastest-growing states were [...]
BEA has released the first estimates of state personal income for the fourth quarter of 2019 and for 2019 as a whole. Right now interest in these figures may be mostly antiquarian. For 2019 as a whole, the fastest-growing states were in the West, with Colorado's 6.1 percent increase the nation's largest. South Carolina was the only state in the eastern half of the nation to be in the top 10 for growth—and it was 10th. The Great Lakes was the slowest-growing region, with Wisconsin's 4.0% gain (29th in the nation) noticeably under the nation's 4.4% pace. West Virginia's 2.8% growth was the nation's lowest (West Virginia is classified as a Southeastern state).
In the fourth quarter, much of the West was still strong, with the Southwest seeing the highest growth rate of any region. The Great Lakes states did experience a marked rebound, most likely reflecting the end of the GM strike (Michigan's 4.7 percent rate of growth was the nation's highest). North Dakota, after seeing income grow at an 11.1 percent rate in the third quarter, was last in the fourth quarter, with a 1.1 percent rate of growth.
Of course, the first quarter is likely to see very different results, with outright declines possible. It may be that small energy-producing states will be unusually hard-hit, as will, of course, the states now largely sheltering in place. Presumably, the new legislation will greatly expand federal transfer payments, but those effects will not be seen until the second quarter. Some may be looking at the state income figures to get a sense of the vulnerability of revenues to the virus event, but the potential for major federal aid is arguably the key element in assessing public finances.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.