USA| Jul 19 2024

Look for Good Deals on Cars and Trucks

Auto and light truck assemblies sprinted 21.1% month-to-month (not annualized) in June to a seasonally-adjust annualized level of 13.1 million units, the highest level of monthly of production since July 2015. In May, retail dollar inventories of motor vehicles (and parts) relative to dollar retail sales of them continued their upward trend, reaching 1.93, the highest since April 2020, when Covid infections were in their early stage. The retail inventory-to-sales ratio of motor vehicles will artificially rise higher in June due to the surge in June assemblies and the curtailment of sales related to the computer hacking of car/truck dealers last month. But discounting the likely increase in the I/S ratio in June because of the hacked software, retail inventories of motor vehicles are starting to look a bit excessive, albeit below the ratio to sales pre-Covid. (See Chart 1 for these data.)

Chart 1

At the same time that retail motor vehicles are rising relative to sales, problems are developing in the financing of cars and trucks. According to the New York Fed’s quarterly survey of household debt and credit, new delinquent motor vehicle loans relative to outstanding balances, which have trending up since 2022, hit 7.94% in Q1:2024, the highest since Q4:2010 (see Chart 2). Moreover, according to Cox Automotive, repossessions of cars and trucks are up 23% in the first half of 2024 compared to a year ago and up 14% since the first half of 2019, which was pre-Covid.

Chart 2

Just as the inventories of new single-family houses are becoming excessive, so, too, are those of new cars and trucks, and perhaps inventories of used cars and trucks due to the increase in repossessions. Thus, look for some good deals on new and used cars and trucks in the coming months.

Paul L. Kasriel
Author
Mr. Kasriel is founder of Econtrarian, LLC, an economic-analysis consulting firm. Paul’s economic commentaries can be read on his blog, The Econtrarian. After 25 years of employment at The Northern Trust Company of Chicago, Paul retired from the chief economist position at the end of April 2012. Prior to joining The Northern Trust Company in August 1986, Paul was on the official staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in the economic research department. Paul is a recipient of the annual Lawrence R. Klein award for the most accurate economic forecast over a four-year period among the approximately 50 participants in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators forecast survey. In January 2009, both The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few economists who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Under Paul’s leadership, The Northern Trust’s economic website was ranked in the top ten “most interesting” by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets (McGraw-Hill, 2002). Paul resides on the beautiful peninsula of Door County, Wisconsin where he sails his salty 1967 Pearson Commander 26, sings in a community choir and struggles to learn how to play the bass guitar (actually the bass ukulele). Paul can be contacted by email at econtrarian@gmail.com or by telephone at 1-920-559-0375.
More in Author Profile »