Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

Andrew Cates

**Uncertainty and market volatility** 
Our first chart this week illustrates how both market volatility and economic policy uncertainty have started to ease following the sharp spikes seen earlier in 2025. The VIX has steadily declined in recent weeks, returning to levels closer to its long-term average as investors take comfort from stronger-than-expected US data, a steady disinflation trend, and renewed optimism around global trade. While the news-based policy uncertainty index remains elevated compared with historical norms, it too appears to be trending down, suggesting that the initial shock from tariff hikes and trade policy shifts is beginning to settle.

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**The US dollar, US yields and Fed independence**
This next chart highlights the marked decline in the broad nominal effective exchange rate of the US dollar since early 2025, alongside a modest drift lower in 10-year Treasury yields. While Treasury yields remain elevated by historical standards—hovering just above 4.3%—they have failed to sustain the highs seen earlier this year, partly perhaps because inflation has continued to moderate. At the same time, the dollar has depreciated steadily, partly reflecting growing market unease around the Federal Reserve’s policy credibility and institutional independence. Recent comments by President Trump, openly criticising Chair Jerome Powell, have reinforced investor concerns about political pressure on the Fed at a time when policy decisions are finely balanced.

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**Japan’s trade with the US** 
While the recent US–Japan trade agreement has helped soothe immediate tensions, the underlying economic relationship remains fragile. As this next chart shows, trade policy uncertainty in Japan has spiked sharply in recent months—reaching levels not seen since the height of global trade disruptions in 2020—even as exports to the US have begun to soften again. Though the agreement offered short-term relief for Japan’s auto and machinery sectors, many key details remain vague, especially surrounding the much-publicised $550 billion investment commitment.

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**Credit growth in the euro area**
Latest data for June published this week show a clear slowdown in euro area M3 growth, with a notably softer contribution from private sector lending. After supporting the recovery over the past year, credit to households and firms is now losing momentum. This comes despite recent upside surprises in Q2’s GDP (and the broader dataflow), suggesting the recovery may be less credit-driven than before.

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**The UK consumer**
This week’s latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey also paints a worrying picture for the UK consumer outlook. As shown in the next chart below, the balance of retailers reporting higher sales volumes compared to a year ago has fallen sharply, reaching levels consistent with past periods of economic stress. This sustained weakness in retail activity points to downside risks to UK growth, particularly given signs of slowing wage growth and softening labour market conditions.

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**The US housing market**
Finally, the latest reading from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows a negative three-month change, marking a clear reversal in US house price momentum. As the chart below highlights, past periods of falling home prices have often coincided with or preceded recessions, as indicated by the shaded areas. This pattern underscores the housing market’s broader significance for the economy, particularly through its impact on household wealth, credit conditions, and construction activity. While other macro indicators remain solid, the recent downturn in prices is a potential early warning sign that housing-related pressures could weigh more heavily on the outlook in the months ahead.

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Financial markets have performed well in recent weeks, lifted by stronger data, moderating inflation, and renewed soft landing hopes. Equities have pushed higher, volatility has eased, and credit markets have firmed. While economic policy uncertainty remains elevated, it is showing signs of normalising alongside greater clarity on US trade policy (chart 1). The US dollar, however, remains under pressure amid concerns about Fed independence and broader policy credibility (chart 2). The Fed’s decision on July 30th to leave policy on hold, despite two dissenting votes in favour of a cut, arguably did little to ease those concerns. Recent US trade agreements—particularly with Japan and Europe—have boosted sentiment, though questions linger over implementation. In Japan, trade policy uncertainty has surged amid vague deal terms, even as exports to the US have weakened (chart 3). In the euro area, M3 growth slowed in June as private credit softened, casting doubt on the durability of recent upside surprises (chart 4). UK retail data signal a sharp drop in consumer activity, consistent with past recessions (chart 5), and the change in US house prices has turned negative on a three-month basis—often a warning sign of broader economic weakness (chart 6). Overall, while market sentiment has improved, risks tied to credit, demand, and housing persist.

Charts of the Week: Markets Rally, Risks Linger

Tom Moeller

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**Price Index Strengthens**
The PCE chain price index increased 0.3% (2.6% y/y) during June after rising 0.2% in May and 0.2% in April, both revised up from 0.1%. The y/y gain rose to 2.6% after a 2.4% increase in May. It was the strongest rise in four months, up from 2.2% in April. Energy prices rose 0.9% (-1.6% y/y) after falling 1.0% in May, while food prices rose 0.3% (2.2% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. The price index excluding food & energy rose 0.3%, after two straight 0.2% increases. The y/y increase held steady at 2.8% last month, and remained near the slowest since March 2021.

Durable goods prices rose 0.5% (0.9% y/y) in June, after holding steady in May. Home furnishings & appliance prices jumped 1.3% (2.1% y/y), after increasing 0.6%. Recreational goods & vehicle costs strengthened 0.9% (0.8% y/y) following a slight easing in May. Motor vehicle & parts prices slipped 0.4% (+0.7% y/y), after a 0.1% May decline.

Prices of nondurable goods rose 0.4% (0.5% y/y) last month after a 0.1% May improvement. Gasoline & other energy prices increased 0.9% (-8.0% y/y), after falling 2.2% in May. Clothing prices rose 0.4% (-0.3% y/y) after falling 0.4% in May. Food & beverage prices rose 0.3% (2.2% y/y) following a 0.2% May increase.

Services prices in June rose 0.2% (3.5% y/y) in June for the fourth straight month. Housing & utility prices rose 0.3% (4.4% y/y), the same as in May, and services prices excluding energy & healthcare gained 0.2% (3.7% y/y) for the second straight month. Healthcare prices strengthened 0.4% (2.4% y/y), after a 0.1% uptick. The cost of financial services & insurance rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y) after falling 0.2% in May. Recreation services costs edged 0.1% higher (3.7% y/y) after falling 0.3%. Transportation prices eased 0.1% (+4.3% y/y), after holding steady In May, while hotel & restaurant prices eased slightly (+2.9% y/y) after rising 0.3% in May.

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**Personal Spending Firms**
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3% (+4.7% y/y) in June after holding steady in May, revised from -0.1%. The rise compared to expectations for a 0.4% increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. When adjusted for price changes, PCE improved 0.1% in June (2.1% y/y) after falling 0.2% in May.

Real spending on durable goods declined 0.5% (+3.5% y/y) in June, after dropping 1.8% in May. Real spending on motor vehicles eased 0.4% (+7.1% y/y), after falling 5.5% in May. Real outlays on furnishings & appliances eased 0.7% (+1.1% y/y), off for the third straight month. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles fell 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) last month, after rising 1.1% in May. Spending on “other” durable goods eased 0.1% (+1.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in May.

Nondurable goods spending in real terms rose 0.4% (2.7% y/y) in June after falling 0.3% in May. Real clothing & footwear purchases rose 0.3% (4.2 y/y) last month, following a 1.2% jump during May. Real food & beverage purchases rose 0.2% (1.3% y/y) and reversed the 0.2% decline in the prior month. Real outlays on gasoline & other energy products rose 1.9% (1.7% y/y), after falling 2.6%. Real spending on “other” nondurable goods improved 0.2% (3.7% y/y) last month, following two straight months of 0.3% decline.

Real spending on services roughly improved 0.1% (1.7% y/y) in June for the third straight month. Real spending on housing & utilities rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in June, for a second consecutive month, while real health care spending also rose 0.1% (4.7% y/y) after rising 0.2%. Real spending on food services & accommodations increased 0.2% (1.5% y/y), after falling 0.2% in May. Real spending on financial services & insurance rose 0.2% (2.5% y/y) after falling 0.3%. Real spending on transportation services weakened 0.3% (-2.3% y/y) in June, after edging 0.1% higher in May. Recreation spending fell 0.7% (-0.3% y/y), after rising 0.9% in May. Spending on “other” services held steady (+2.3% y/y) for the second straight month.

**Income Growth Improves**
Personal income rose 0.3% last month (4.7% y/y) after falling 0.4% in May. A 0.2% gain was expected. Wages & salaries edged 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y), following a 0.3% increase during May. Rental income declined 0.4% (+3.8 y/y) in June, after falling 0.5% in May. Proprietors’ income improved 0.2% (2.3% y/y), after tumbling 2.6%. Income from assets held steady (+1.0% y/y), after rising 0.2% during May, and current transfer receipts rose 1.0% (8.6% y/y) following a 2.0% May decline.

Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (4.3% y/y) during June following a 0.5% May decline. After adjusting for price changes, disposable income eased slightly (+1.7% y/y) after falling 0.7% in May.

The personal saving rate held steady in June at 4.5%, after falling from 5.0% in April. It still stands well above low of 3.5% in December of last year. Personal saving fell 0.8% (-2.2% y/y) in June, after declining 9.8% in May.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Core price increase is strongest in four months.
- Real spending moves slightly higher.
- Real disposable income holds steady along with personal savings rate.

U.S. Core PCE Price Inflation Moves Up in June; Real Spending Improves

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q2, the same quarterly increase as in Q1 and in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past seven quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.8% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 1.0% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q2, up from a 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) gain in Q1. Benefits growth retreated to 0.7% q/q (3.6% y/y) following a 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) surge in Q1. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic and are not yet consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 1.0% q/q (3.5% y/y), up from 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1. The quarterly gain in Q2 was the largest since Q1 2024. Wages and salaries for private industry workers also increased 1.0% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q2 versus 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1. Benefits for private industry workers slowed to 0.7% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q2 after having jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, which was the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q2 versus a 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) increase in Q1. The y/y increase in Q2 was the largest since Q1 2024. Manufacturing compensation rose 1.0% q/q, the largest quarterly gain since Q1 2024. Construction compensation slowed to a 0.8% q/q increase in Q2 following a 1.3% q/q jump in Q1. Compensation in private service-producing industries gained 1.0% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q2, up from 0.8% q/q increase in Q1. The Q2 rise in compensation in service-producing sectors was led by a 1.4% q/q increase in information compensation, the largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, and a 1.1% q/q gain in healthcare and social assistance compensation. In contrast, leisure compensation edged up 0.4% q/q, its smallest quarterly gain since Q3 2015.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q2, the same pace as in both Q1 and Q4 2024.
- Wage growth picked up to 1.0% q/q while benefits slowed to 0.7% q/q after Q1 surge.

Growth of U.S. Employment Cost Index Unchanged in Q2

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up by 1,000 to 218,000 (-12.1% y/y) in the week ended July 26, from the unrevised level of 217,000 (-8.1% y/y) in the week ended July 19. The small weekly rise is the first one following six consecutive weekly declines. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 222,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined by 3,500 to 221,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,500. It was the lowest level since the second week of April.

In the week ended July 19, the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – was 1.946 million (+3.8% y/y), unchanged from the prior week's level, which was revised down by 9,000. The four-week moving average was 1.949 million, a decline of 3,000 from 1.952 million, revised from 1.954 million.

In the week ending July 19, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was unchanged at 1.3% for the eighth straight week. It had increased from 1.2% since the beginning of 2023 and 1.0% in November 2022.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended July 12, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.76%), Puerto Rico (2.70%), Rhode Island (2.65%), Minnesota (2.21%), California (2.15%), Massachusetts (2.13%), and District of Colombia and Washington (both 2.08%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.30%), Florida (0.39%), and North Carolina (0.47%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.89%), Illinois (1.78%), New York (1.74%), and Texas (1.29%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims edged up in the July 26 week after six consecutive declines.
- Continuing claims were unchanged in the July 19 week.
- Insured unemployment rate was unchanged for the eighth consecutive week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Up in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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The overall EMU-wide and EU-wide unemployment rates were steady in June. For the EMU the rate is 6.2% and for the EU the rate is at 5.9%. According to data back to January 2020, the EMU rate has been this low or lower 1.3% of the time while the EU rate has been this low or lower 2.6% of the time. The EU rate at 5.9% is just above its all-time low (of 5.8%) on this horizon while the EMU rate remains at 6.2%, which is its all-time low on this horizon.

In June, four of twelve reporting EMU members logged month-to-month drops in their unemployment rates against only two where unemployment rates rose. This compares to May when seven members reported lower rates of unemployment. In April, nine reported unemployment rate drops.

Sequential data over 12 months, six months and three months show unemployment rates falling in six of 12 EMU members, over all three horizons: three-months, six-months, and twelve-months.

Among the 12 reporting members in the table, only three have unemployment rates above their respective medians since 2000 (rankings above 50%) in this period.

Elsewhere the U.S. unemployment rate fell in the month and was otherwise stable over the past year. The U.K. claimant rate of unemployment has snake higher beginning in May. Japan’s unemployment rate remains anchored at 2.5%. Among these three countries, the U.K. has an unemployment rate above its historic median at 62.7%.

European growth has been slow as the emerging GDP data for 2025-Q2 are confirming. But the labor market in Europe remains very solid. Inflation seems to be winding down in Europe. Europe may even be in for some growth turbulence because of the new U.S. tariff policy. However, for now, the labor market looks quite solid, and growth remains the orders of the day even if it is slow.

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Europe

Unemployment in EMU

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At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the target range for the Fed funds rate was left unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, where it has been since the beginning of 2025, following reductions at three consecutive meetings in the fall of 2024. Rates remain below the high of 5.25% to 5.50% in place in mid-September. Today’s target range matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The following statement was released after today’s meeting: “Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

The statement went on to note: “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

The Fed also stated, “The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities.”

The U.S. economic figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database & the interest rate data are in the **WEEKLY** & **DAILY** databases. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- FOMC holds funds rate target at late-December level.
- Decision was not unanimous with two FOMC members voting for a 25 basis point cut.

FOMC Targeted Funds Rate Range Is Unchanged

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Real GDP grew 3.0% (SAAR) during the second quarter of 2025 after falling an unrevised 0.5% in Q1. A 2.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the increase, annualized growth averaged only 1.2% in the first half of this year, less than half the gain during 2024.

Foreign trade balance improvement added 4.99 percentage points to growth last quarter after subtracting 4.61 percentage points in Q1. Imports fell 30.3% (+1.1% y/y) after surging 38.0% in Q1. Exports declined 1.8% (+1.9% y/y) after improving 0.4% in Q1. Inventories subtracted 3.17 percentage points from growth after adding 2.59 percentage point to Q1 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 1.1% (2.3% y/y) in Q2 after rising 1.5% in Q1. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.4% (2.4% y/y) following a 0.5% gain. Durable goods spending rose 3.7% (4.8% y/y) after falling 3.7% in Q1. Motor vehicle purchases strengthened 16.2% (7.7% y/y) after declining 11.2% in Q1. Spending on home furnishings & appliances weakened 2.5% (+3.4% y/y) following a 1.5% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays fell 3.8% (+4.2% y/y) last quarter after a 0.4% Q1 gain.

Nondurable goods outlays in constant dollars rose 1.3% (2.8% y/y) following 2.1% growth in Q1. Apparel spending increased 4.7% (4.6% y/y) following a 7.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 0.1% (1.4% y/y) after a 1.0% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases weakened 4.3% (+0.2% y/y) after gaining 3.6% in Q1.

Real spending on services increased 1.1% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities eased 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) after rising 2.9% in Q1. Health care expenditures rose 3.0% (4.5% y/y), about the same as in Q1. Transportation outlays declined 3.1% (-0.7% y/y) after a 1.4% rise while recreation spending rose 2.3% (0.4% y/y) following a 5.1% decline. Restaurant & hotel expenditures increased 3.2% (1.4% y/y) after falling 1.8%. Financial services expenditures rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.1% Q1 increase.

Business fixed investment in constant dollars increased 1.9% last quarter (3.2% y/y) following a 10.3% surge in Q1. Expenditures on structures declined 10.3% (-3.8% y/y), the fourth straight quarter of decline. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment increased 4.8% (7.0% y/y) after surging 23.7% in Q1. Outlays on information processing equipment rose 5.5% (18.8% y/y) after soaring 72.8% during Q1. Industrial equipment investment rose 4.5% (3.4% y/y), roughly the same as in Q1. Intellectual property product spending rose 6.4% (3.7% y/y) following a 6.0% rise.

Residential structures investment in real terms declined 4.6% (-1.3% y/y), the fourth decline in the last five quarters.

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Government spending rose 0.5% in Q2 (2.0% y/y) after a 0.6% decline. Federal government expenditures declined 3.7% (+1.0% y/y) after falling 4.6% in Q1. National defense expenditures increased 2.2% (3.2% y/y) after falling 7.1% in Q1. State & local government spending rose 3.0% (2.6% y/y) following a 2.0% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose 2.0% last quarter (2.5% y/y) after increasing 3.8% in Q1. A 2.4% increase had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The PCE chain price index increased 2.1% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.7% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.5% (2.7% y/y) after increasing 3.5% in Q1. The business fixed investment price index edged 0.3% higher after a 0.4% rise. The residential price index strengthened 1.5% (2.7% y/y) after a 4.1% rise while the government price index increased 2.7% (2.9% y/y) following a 4.6% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Q2 GDP growth more than makes up deterioration in Q1.
-  Consumer spending picks up while trade gap deterioration reverses.
- Price index gain roughly halves.

U.S. GDP Q2’25 Shows More Growth, Less Inflation

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The ADP National Employment Report reported that nonfarm private sector payrolls rebounded in July, rising 104,000 (+1.2% y/y) after unexpectedly declining a revised 23,000 in June (previously -33,000). The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected an 82,000 increase in July.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) increased 12,000 in July after monthly declines in both May and June. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rebounded in July, increasing 46,000 after a 16,000 decline in June. Large business hiring (500+ employees) gained 46,000 in July vs. 32,000 in June.

Goods-producing employment rose 31,000 in July on top of a 34,000 rise in June. Construction jobs increased 15,000, up from an 8,000 gain in June. Manufacturing jobs rose 7,000, down from 18,000 in June. Natural resources and mining jobs increased 9,000 in July vs. 8,000 in June.

Service-producing jobs rebounded in July, advancing 74,000 after a 58,000 decline in June. Every major sector except education and health services (-38,000) posted a rise in jobs in July. This was the fifth monthly decline in education and health services jobs in the past six months. Financial sector jobs gained 28,000 in July after falling 12,000 in June. Professional and business services jobs increased 9,000 after having declined 57,000 in June and 13,000 in May. Leisure and hospitality jobs gained 46,000 in July, up from a 33,000 increase in June.

Jobs declined 18,000 in the Northeast in July, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Jobs rose in the other three major regions, increasing 18,000 in the Midwest, 43,000 in the South and 75,000 in the West.

Wage growth for job stayers continued to moderate in July with the year/year growth rate of the median annual pay slowing to 4.4%, the slowest pace since June 2021, from 4.5% in June. Wage growth for job changers was unchanged at 7.0% y/y for the fourth consecutive month. The slowdown in wage growth for job stayers was widespread across major industries with y/y growth rates falling or unchanged in every major sector.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Private payrolls increased 104,000 in July after a 23,000 decline in June.
- Goods-producing jobs rose 31,000, and service-producing jobs rose 74,000.
- Job stayer wage growth moderated further.

U.S. ADP Employment Rebounds in July

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 73,000 during July after rising 14,000 in June, revised from 147,000, and 19,000 in May, revised from 144,000. Expectations had been for a 102,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change in payrolls of 35,000 compared to 64,000 in June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates.

Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.3% during July after unrevised gains of 0.2% and 0.4% in June & May. Earnings growth of 3.9% y/y is little changed over twelve months, but has been trending lower from its 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up m/m to an expected 4.2% from 4.1% and compared to 4.2% in the previous three months. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, rose to 7.9% last month from 7.7% In June. It was 6.6% in April 2023.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment in July rose 83,000, factory sector jobs declined 11,000, off for the third straight month. Construction sector employment increased 2,000, after rising 3,000 in June. The number of mining & logging industry jobs declined 4,000 after falling in both of the prior two months. 

Private service sector employment increased 96,000 July after improving 16,000 in June. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 79,000 last month, following a 52,000 increase in June. The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs gained 11,000, following a 22,000 decline and financial activities employment improved 15,000 after a 2,000 drop, while leisure & hospitality employment rose just 5,000 after a 4,000 gain. The number of professional & business services jobs fell 14,000, down for the third straight month.  Information sector employment fell 2,000, after holding steady in June.

Government sector payrolls declined 10,000 last month and revered June’s 11,000 rise. Federal government employment weakened 12,000 and has fallen for six straight months. Local government employment eased 3,000 after rising 10,000 in June while state government payrolls rose 5,000 after increasing 10,000.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) in July. Earnings in the goods-producing sector edged up 0.1% (3.6% y/y). In construction, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.4% rise, but factory sector earnings eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y). In the service sector, earnings rose 0.4% (4.0% y/y) in July after increasing 0.2% in June.

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The length of the average workweek rose to 34.3 hours in July from 34.2 hours in June. The workweek in the goods-producing sector lengthened to 39.9 hours from 39.7 hours. The construction sector average workweek rose to 39.1 hours from 38.9 while the factory sector workweek held steady at 40.1 hours. The average workweek in the private service sector edged up to 33.2 hours from 33.1 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in July after falling to 4.1% as employment fell 260,000 after rising 93,000 in June and the size of the labor force declined 38,000, off for the third straight month. The labor force participation rate eased to 62.2% last month from 62.3% and remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 35.0%, after plunging to 35.1%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate declined to 70.9%. For workers aged 25-54, the participation rate eased to 83.4%. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved slightly to 38.1% but remained near a 20-year low of 38.0% in June.

The employment/population ratio for all workers slipped to 59.6% last month. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic. For men, the rate fell to 64.7% in July from 64.9% and for women, the rate eased to 54.7% from 54.8% in June.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Recent job growth reduced by fewer factory & government jobs.
- Earnings gain remains steady y/y.
- Jobless rate reverses June decline.

U.S. Employment Report Shows Weakness in July, While Revisions Reduce Earlier Gains; Jobless Rate Picks Up

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