Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index was at -4 in October, up from -8 in September and slightly down from -3 in August, the October Manufacturing Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City showed, indicating Tenth District manufacturing activity declined modestly this month. The October index, negative for the 14th straight month, was up from -6 in October 2023 but well below a peak of 31 in March 2022. “The decline was present in both durable and nondurable goods, particularly chemical, steel, and beverage manufacturing,” the Kansas City Fed reported.

The ISM-adjusted index calculated by Haver Analytics rebounded to 47.3 (NSA) in October after a 3.4-point decline to 44.0 in September, indicating a contraction in factory activity for the fifth consecutive month but at a less severe pace. The latest ISM-adjusted figure was above 45.3 in October 2023 but well below a record-high 68.9 in March 2022.

In the latest survey, the new orders index was less negative in October, rising to -5 after a two-point decline to -14 in September; the October index registered the 27th straight negative reading and the highest since February. Twenty-nine percent of respondents (NSA) reported orders gains in October while 38% reported declines. The production index jumped to zero this month after a 24-point plunge to -18 in September; these readings were well below a high of 36 in March 2022. The shipments index rebounded to 7 in October, the first positive reading and the highest since May, after an 11-point drop to -12 in September; however, having remained down from a peak of 40 in March 2022.

The raw materials inventory index dropped to -10 in October, the eighth negative reading in 10 months, following a four-point increase to 4 in September; these figures were well below a high of 28 in March 2022. The order backlog index rose to -14 this month, the 27th consecutive negative reading, after dropping to -33 in September; these numbers were significantly below a record-high 43 in July 2021. The supplier delivery time index increased to -1 in October, the fourth successive negative reading, from -2 in September; these readings were well below a high of 51 in March 2022.

On the labor front, the employment index increased to -2 in October following a four-point decline to -11 in September, posting the fifth straight negative reading and the highest level since a positive 9 in May. The index was down from a high of 30 in May 2022. Fifteen percent of respondents (NSA) reported increases in the number of employees in October while 19% reported decreases.

On the pricing front, the prices received index for finished products jumped to 11 in October, the highest level since May 2023, after an 11-point decrease to -5 in September. These readings remained well below a high of 50 in June 2022 and a record-high 62 in August 2021. An increased 18% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices received in October while a lessened 11% reported price declines. The prices paid index for raw materials rose to 19 this month, the highest reading since May, after a five-point drop to 13 in September; nevertheless, having remained significantly down from a high of 73 in April 2022 and a record-high 87 in October 2021.

Expectations for future activity continued to stay positive, with activity in most categories expected to gain and raw materials prices expected to rise at a faster pace than finished product prices. The expectations index for six months ahead was at 7 in October, slightly down from 9 in September and 8 in August. The expectations indexes for production (27), shipments (21), and new orders (14) rose in October, while those for raw materials inventories (-14) and supplier delivery time (-7) dropped for the month. The expectations index for employment fell to 15 in October from 18 in September and the index for capital expenditures fell to 1 from 11; however, remaining in positive territory and indicating expansion. The expectations index for raw materials prices rebounded to 38 in October following a seven-point drop to 33 in September, while the index for finished goods prices rose to 35, the highest level since March 2023, after September’s 12-point jump to 33.

The latest survey was conducted for a six-day period from October 16-21, 2024 and included 103 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.

The series dates back to July 2001. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- October Composite Index at -4 reflects negative readings in materials inventories (-10), new orders (-5) and employment (-2), while production (0) rebounds from September’s negative level (-18).
- Price indexes rise, w/ prices paid (19) up to a 5-month high and prices received (11) up to a 17-month high.
- Expectations for future activity remain positive.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Less Negative in October

Tom Moeller

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The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.28 during September and reversed the August improvement to -0.01, revised from +0.12. The recent high of +0.39 was reached in February. The three-month moving average of the index eased to -0.19 during September from -0.14 in August. The index has been consistently negative since late in 2022, suggesting below-trend economic growth. During the last 20 years, there has been a 91% correlation between the three-month index level and the q/q change in real GDP.

The report indicated that each broad category of indicators used to construct the index declined in September. The Production & Income category contributed -0.21 to the total in September after adding 0.04 in August. It remained up from a January low of -0.48, continuing to suggest a lessening of negative pressure. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series contributed -0.03 in September versus zero contribution in August. It has been mostly negative since early last year. The Personal Consumption & Housing figure contributed -0.01 last month after -0.03 in August. It remained higher, however, than the January low of -0.09. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure contributed a steady -0.03 last month versus +0.07 in August. These negative readings reversed a July improvement.

The diffusion index of the CFNAI, which measures the breadth of component change, rose to -0.16 in September from -0.21 in August. It compared to the low of -0.27 in October of last year and was below the recent high of +0.24 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Production & income lead softening.
- Other series are negative as well.
- Trend weakens.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Weakens in September

Sandy Batten

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 15,000 to 227,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended October 19, from 242,000 in the previous week, revised up 1,000 from the initially reported 241,000 level. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 244,000 in the October 19 week. Press reports indicate that the 35,000 jump to 260,000 in the October 5 week was related to the impact of Hurricane Helene. Over the following two weeks, weekly claims have fallen by 33,000 to a level just above the one that existed prior to the hurricane. Still, the effects of both Hurricane Helene and Milton will likely keep weekly claims data volatile in the coming weeks. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 238,500 in the week ended October 19, up from 236,500 the week before.

In the week ended October 12, the total number unemployment benefit recipients—also known as insured unemployment—was 1.897 million, up 28,000 from 1.869 million in the week of October 5, which was revised up slightly from 1.867 million. The four-week moving average of insured unemployment was 1.861 million, up from 1.843 million in the prior week.

Also, in the week ended October 12, the insured unemployment rate edged up from 1.2% to 1.3%, its first weekly change since it rose to 1.2% in the week ended March 11, 2023. This is the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended October 5, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.17%), California (1.92%), Washington (1.78%), Nevada (1.59%) and Rhode Island (1.58%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.23%), North Dakota (0.34%), Florida (0.34%), Virginia (0.41%) and Alabama (0.43%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.48%), Illinois (1.40%), Pennsylvania (1.33%) and Texas (1.00%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Claims totaled 227,000, down a more-than-expected 15,000 from the previous week.
- Decline reflected some normalization after the hurricane-induced surge in early October.
- Continuing claims (reported with a one-week lag) rose sharply.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Fell Again in Week of October 19

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Sales of existing homes fell 1.0% (-3.5% y/y) in September to 3.84 million units (SAAR) after declining 2.0% in August to 3.88 million, revised from 3.86 million. This was the lowest level of sales since October 2010 despite the decline in 30-year mortgage interest rates last month to an average 6.18% versus the peak 7.06% averaged in May. It has since risen to 6.44% last week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected September sales of 3.85 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) fell 2.3% in September (3.0% y/y) to $404,500 after declining 1.7% in August to $414,200, revised from $416,700. It was the third consecutive monthly decline after having risen to a record $426,900 in June. Prices remained almost twice their level of $209,100 ten years earlier. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 2.6% (+2.9% y/y) to $409,000 in September after two months of decline. The median price for condos and co-ops were off 0.8% (+2.2% y/y) to $361,600, also after two months of decline.

By region, sales of existing homes in the Northeast declined 4.2% (-6.1% y/y) to 460,000 in September following a 2.0% August fall. Sales in the Midwest were off 2.2% last month (-5.3% y/y) to 900,000 after holding steady in August. Sales in the South declined 1.7% in September (-5.5% y/y) to 1.72 million following a 2.8% August drop. To the upside, existing home sales in the West rose 4.1% (5.6% y/y) to 760,000 after declining 2.7% in August.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 1.5% (23.0% y/y) to 1.39 million last month after rising 2.2% in August. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) inched up to 4.3 months in September from 4.2 months in August. This figure has generally risen since February. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales weaken for sixth month in last seven.
- Declines posted in all regions except the West.
- Median price falls for third straight month.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Ease During September

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage loan applications fell 6.7% (+30.0% y/y) in the week ended October 18, the fourth consecutive weekly decline and after declining 17.0% (+37.9% y/y) in the week ended October 11. Applications for loans to purchase a house dropped 5.1% (+3.4% y/y) in the week ended October 18, after falling 7.2% (+6.6% y/y) in the week ended October 11, while applications to refinance an existing mortgage fell 8.4% (+90.0% y/y) following a decline of 26.3% (+111.3% y/y) in the prior week. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.71% in the week ended October 18, unchanged from the week ended October 11. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.14%, up 4 bps from the 6.10% rate in the October 11 week, and up 54 bps from the rate four weeks ago. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans eased 5 bps to 6.90% in the October 18 week from 6.95% in the October 11 week, while the rate on 5-year ARM loans eased 1 bps to 6.32% in the latest week.

The share of loan applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 45.7% in the week ended October 18, down from 46.5% in the week ended October 11. The share of applications for ARMs was 6.1% in the latest week, up from 5.9% in the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan application was $383,200 in the week ended October 18, down 1.5% w/w from $389,200 in the week of October 11. The average size of a loan to purchase a house eased 0.5% w/w to $446,300 in the October 18 week, from $448,600 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance dropped 4.0% w/w to $308,200 in the October 18 week, from $321,000 in the October 11 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Loan applications to purchase and refinance a house fell again in the latest week.
- The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was unchanged in the latest week.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fell in the October 18 Week

Robert Brusca

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Danish confidence sank further in October, falling to -8.9 after registering -6.8 in September. September had been a small improvement from August at -7.4 but now confidence has dipped below its August value. Confidence was last weaker in December of last year.

Inflation concerns are beginning to rise in Denmark as well. Inflation expectations that rose sequentially over the last 12 months are once again rising sequentially as we look ahead to the next 12 months.

**Monthly trends**
The financial situation has eroded steadily over the last 12 months and continues to erode with the October reading, falling to -1 after posting +2.9 in September and +3.2 in August; this is small but steady slippage.

The outlook or assessment for the general economy has slipped over the last three months, but looking ahead at prospects for the general economy there is a small improvement but the last three monthly values are all net negative values and there doesn't seem to be any strength in that assessment. That conclusion is further underscored by unemployment trends that have worsened sharply over the last three months, with an August reading of plus 5 followed by a September reading of 9.5 and an October rating of 10.2; concerns about unemployment have risen.

The assessment of the environment monthly shows little change in the favorability of the time to purchase goods, with consistent negative readings over the last three months; the favorability looking forward to the next three months slips with October falling to -8 after having negative readings in the minus 5 region in both August and September. The general financial situation of households, however, does show some snail’s pace improvement, with the August reading of 24.8 moving up to 26.3 in September and moving up further to 26.9 in October.

**Sequential trends**
Danish confidence is not improved very much sequentially although it's made a very small improvement from a -7.9 12-month average to an average of -7.7 over three months. The present situation improved over the last 12 months, with the last three-month assessment at -6.8 compared to a 12-month average of -9.3; there was still slippage compared to six months ago. The assessment of financial situation looking ahead, while positive, shows a decreasing positive value; a 12-month average is 3.5 with a three-month average slipping to 1.7. The assessment of the general economy sequentially looking backward had slipped over the last 12-to-six-to-three months; looking ahead that slippage continues as the 12-month average of -6.1 moves to -6.9 over six months and the average drops further to -9.0 over three months. As noted above, the outlook for inflation had been worsening and it continues to worsen even more sharply for the 12-months ahead. Unemployment expectations had improved sequentially from 9.3 over 12 months to 7.7 over six months and 8.2 over three months – but the monthly pattern unwinds the sequential trend.

The favorability of the environment to purchase is becoming progressively less negative sequentially. The favorability to purchase envisioned over the next 12 months has continued that progression with very small improvements. The three-month pattern that shows an increase in the general financial situation of households has extended this broader progression from 12-months to six-months to three-months that has generally been improving but has been improving slowly and actually saw a slight setback in the three-month to six-month progression.

**Rankings for readings**
The rankings of these assessments are predominantly weak with the consumer confidence indicator weaker only 10.6% of the time. The financial situation over the last and the next 12 months both have rankings below their 10th percentiles. The general economy looking ahead has a ranking in its 15.5 percentile. The outlook for inflation over the last 12 months was high at its 89th percentile; over the next 12-months its standing is lower but is still high at a 79th percentile. The unemployment trends over the next 12 months have a 73.3 percentile standing, relatively high and well above the median which occurs at a ranking of 50 percent. The environment shows the favorability of the time to purchase is weak with a 15.2 percentile standing. Looking ahead, that improves but only slightly to a 20.6 percentile standing. The favorability of the time to save both currently and looking ahead has a 53-percentile standing, moderate, and slightly above average. Meanwhile, the general financial situation of households comes in above its median with a 60.3 percentile standing and logs the brightest reading in the table – although a 60-percentile standing is not particularly strong.

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Denmark

Danish Consumer Confidence Backtracks

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to $3.27 per gallon (-10.7% y/y) in the week ended October 21 from $3.29 in the prior week, the lowest price since the first week of February. These compare to a high of $3.79 per gallon in the fourth week of April. The all-time high was $5.11 in the second week of June 2022. The prices of on-highway diesel fuel declined to an average $3.55 per gallon (-21.8% y/y) last week versus $3.63 per gallon in the prior week. A recent low of $3.77 per gallon occurred in the week ended July 3, 2023 while the high was $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $70.94 per barrel (-19.4% y/y) in the week ended October 18 from an average $75.07 in the prior week. It remained well above its low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023, but below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was reached in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $70.56 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $74.58 per barrel (-19.3% y/y) in the week ended October 18 from $79.34 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $73.29 per barrel.

Natural gas prices declined to an average of $2.15/mmbtu (-24.8% y/y) in the week ended October 18 compared to $2.40/mmbtu in the prior week. These were up from a mid-March low of $1.40 and a high of $3.20 averaged in the week of October 13, 2023. Yesterday, the price of natural gas stood at $1.76/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 5.4% y/y in the four weeks ended October 11 after rising 5.4% y/y in the four weeks ended October 4. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.8% y/y after improving 2.9% y/y in the prior four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.8% y/y in the four weeks ended October 11 after rising 1.5% y/y in the previous four-week period.

Gasoline inventories fell 4.7% y/y in the week of October 11 following a 4.8% y/y drop in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 8.9% y/y after declining 12.9% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased 4.3% y/y in the week of October 11 following a 3.9% y/y decline one week earlier.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories dipped to 23.6 days in the week of October 11 versus 23.8 days in the prior week. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories were little changed at 26.5 days of supply in the week of October 11 versus 26.4 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERG**Y database.

- Gasoline prices are lowest since early this year.
- Crude oil price reverses two-week gain.
- Natural gas prices drop sharply.

U.S. Energy Prices Weaken in Latest Week

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European vehicle registrations fell by 6% in September, partly unwinding a drop of 9.7% logged in August. Registrations continued to be in a weak patch, falling at a 27% annual rate over three months and acceleration from a 2.9% rate of decline over six months. Over 12 months sales are lower, falling at a 7.7% annual rate. The problem is not just weakness in the month because the data on the three-month moving average show a decline and have fallen for several months in a row; based on three-month moving averages, the three-month 6-month and 12-month moving averages show declines at double-digit rates. Registrations are weak in Europe.

By country, registrations rose in the five countries that report sales: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Gain to the sharpest in Spain at 14.5% gains were weakest in the U.K. at 3%. Except for the U.K., all these reporting countries showed declines in registrations for two months in a row; the U.K. posted an increase in registrations in July.

Germany shows the weakest progression for registrations among the individual countries although on a year-over-year basis the weakest sales are in France where they fall 12.3%, in Italy where they fall 11%, compared to Germany where registrations year-over-year fall by only 6.7%. The U.K. has registrations up by 0.5% over 12 months while Spain has registrations up by 6.2%.

The progression of sales from 12-months to six-months to three-months shows growth rates in Germany escalating negatively from -6.7% over 12 months to a -20.2% pace over six months to a -56.9% annual rate over three months. This extreme weakness is challenged to some extent by Italy where there's an 11% drop over 12 months, a 3.5% drop, at an annual rate, over six months, and a three-month drop of 38.8% annualized. France shows consistent negative numbers across these horizons, falling by 12.3% over 12 months, a 19.1% annual rate drop over six months and a 14.2% annual rate drop over three months. Spain’s 6.2% year-over-year gain becomes a 17.6% annual rate drop over six months but then recovers to a 17.3% annual rate increase over three months. Spain's data are more volatile than they are weak. The U.K. is the only country to show increases on all horizons; it's showing accelerating increases with a gain of 0.5% over 12 months, progressing to a 2.6% annual rate rise over six months and elevating to an 18.5% annual rate over three months.

The United Kingdom is the only country that has a true positive story to tell. Spain has a story of some volatility with an increase over three months. The other countries have these isolated gains in September that are part of negative progressions. In Europe, conditions are weak; the auto sales data tell us they continue to be weak and there's no evidence that broadly tells us that things are getting better. In fact, the overview seems to be that conditions continue to be quite weak and might be getting worse. European car registration data today are not reassuring.

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Europe

European Car Registrations Rise on Month, Fall Year-on-Year

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The rate of decline in manufacturing activity in the Lone Star State continued to ease in October, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The General Business Activity index increased to -3.0 in October from -9.0 in September. It was the highest level since April 2022, up from the most recent low of -19.4 in May. The October reading compared to a low of -30.1 in May 2023. Nevertheless, the index has been negative since May 2022. An increased 15.3% of respondents reported improved business activity in October while a fairly steady 18.3% of respondents reported a worsening. The company outlook index rose to -3.3 this month, up from a low of -18.4 in July. It’s been negative since March 2022. Data were collected between October 15 to 23 from 86 Texas manufacturers.

The production index in October surged to 14.6 from -3.2 in September, indicating the strongest net-production increase since May 2022. An increased 34.5% of respondents reported higher production this month while a lessened 19.9% reported a decline. Moving lower, the growth rate of orders index fell to -11.7, the sixth straight month of decline. It was down from its recent high of 3.8 in April and significantly below a peak of 30.4 in April 2021. The unfilled orders index was little-changed at -17.5 after plunging to -18.0 from +1.0 in August. It was well below a high of 6.2 in July 2022. The shipments index rose to 1.5 this month from -7.0 in July. The capacity utilization index strengthened to 4.3 from -7.0 in September, the first positive reading in six months. The delivery time index fell to -11.5 this month, the lowest reading since July of last year.

Labor market indexes deteriorated this month. The employment index fell to -5.1 after rising to 2.9 September. The latest reading remained well below a high of 18.2 in January 2023 and a record-high 32.0 in April 2021. A lessened 14.3% of respondents reported net hiring in October while a higher 19.4% reported net layoffs. The hours worked index was at -5.5 this month after m/m steadiness at -2.5 in September. It remained well below a high of 13.6 in August 2022 and a record-high 24.6 in April 2021. Moving up, the wages & benefits index rose to 23.5 in October, the highest level in four months, after falling to 18.5 in September.

Inflation indicators eased this month. The index for prices received for finished goods slipped to 7.4 in October from roughly 8.4 in both of the prior two months. It remained well below a high of 47.9 in March 2022. A lessened 11.1% of respondents reported raising prices in October while a lessened 3.7% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials dropped to 16.3 this month from 18.2 in September. The index remained up from a low of 1.1 in June 2023 but below 73.2 in March 2021.

Expectations of future manufacturing activity were greatly improved this month. The future general business activity index jumped to 29.6 in October from 11.4 in September. It was the highest reading in three years. The future employment index led the gain while future production also rose to a three-year high. Future shipments, new orders and hours worked also increased.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- General business activity index has been rising since 2023 low.
- Production surges, shipments improve, but employment declines.
- Price reading eases, but wages & benefits improve.	
- Future business index stands at highest point in three years.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Gains More Solid Footing in October; Expectations Jump

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The distributive trades survey shows weakening in October for the retail sales (Yr Ago) and sales (time of year). Wholesale sales weakened for sales (Yr Ago) and remained at a very weak reading for orders (Yr Ago) as Sales (time of year) got marginally better in the month-to-month reading but remains at a very weak level.

Expectations for November weakened across the board in retailing compared to October. For wholesaling, they were nearly the same, with the expectations with the net negative readings in November for sales (time of year) that improved compared to October, but it still logged a very weak reading. Improvments month-to-month are a technical assessment, not a statement of an ongoing trend.

Retailing’s reported (current) results log net negative readings for nearly all observations except stocks over the last three months. Retail expectations are the same except their lone positive reading is near-term for October.

Wholesaling reported trends are uniformly deteriorating through time. The negative readings become increasingly weak – or become more severely weak and stay there. Expectations for wholesaling do not follow suit. They are more erratic and cannot be categorized as trending. However, what is disturbing about the expectations is that readings have become suddenly weaker over the last month or last two months in the case of sales (time of year).

Current conditions are generally stronger than their 12-month averages for retailing and weaker for wholesaling. But expectations are strikingly weaker in comparison with their 12-month averages for wholesaling while they are mixed on that comparison for retailing.

There is nothing strong in this month’s survey – not even ‘firm.’ Nothing reassuring. These monthly comparisons of stronger and weaker are only to assess where things are trending – very short term. The readings per se are weak - uniformly weak. All readings rank below their respective 50% mark that designates the location of the median. The strongest reading among activity variables, setting aside stocks, is the October standing of reported orders (compared to a year ago) at 42%. The 29% reading for retailing under expectations also for sales (compared to a year ago) is the next strongest reading.

Expectations are weaker in terms of rankings than the current (reported) readings. The difference is much larger for retailing than for wholesaling. But all the rankings are weak. The chart shows that readings are languishing in a morass of weakness after a post-covid rebound. There is not any clear road to better times ahead here.

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United Kingdom

U.K. Distributive Trades Readings Weaken and Outlook Weakens

Charles Steindel

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in September remained soft. Connecticut was, yet again, on top, with a fairly modest .57 percent increase. New Hampshire was the only other state up more than  .5 percent. 11 states saw declines, with Massachusetts, South Carolina, and Montana all down .29 percent. Over the 3 months ending in September, 14 states were down, with Massachusetts dropping 1.9 percent, while South Carolina was also down  more than 1 percent. The odd New England pattern was ongoing, with Connecticut was on top with an increase of 1.95 and New Hampshire rising more than 1 percent.  Over the last 12 months, 3 states were down, Ohio was flat, and another 8  saw increases of less than 1 percent. Rhode Island’s index was off by .6 percent. Arizona had a 4.99 percent increase, and Connecticut, New Hampshire, Idaho, Texas, and Utah  had gains of more than 3 percent (Maine was up 2.98 percent—there certainly has been some odd variation in New England).

The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last 3 months (.7 percent) and 12 months (2.8 percent) appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

State Coincident Indexes in September 2024

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New orders for durable goods declined 0.8% (-2.1% y/y) during September after falling by the same amount in August, revised from no change. Orders rose a little-revised 9.8% in July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.7% decline last month. The decline in orders reflected a 3.1% drop (-7.9% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment after they were off 3.4% in August. Orders outside the transportation sector rose 0.4% (1.1% y/y) in September after increasing 0.6% in August.

Last month’s weakness in transportation orders reflected fewer aircraft & parts bookings. They fell 22.9% due to a 22.7% decline in nondefense aircraft orders. Defense sector aircraft orders fell 3.2%. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 1.1% (0.1% y/y) after edging 0.1% lower in August. Elsewhere, primary metals orders rose 0.5% (0.9% y/y) while fabricated metals orders jumped 2.1% (3.2% y/y). Machinery orders slipped 0.2% (-0.7% y/y), the third month of slight decline, while computer & electronics fell 0.3% (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.7% rise. Electrical equipment orders were little changed (1.4% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. Orders for other durable goods rose 0.2% (0.7% y/y) following a 0.3% August increase.

Capital goods orders declined 2.8% in September (-6.3% y/y) after falling 2.6% in August. Nondefense capital goods orders declined 4.5% (-13.1% y/y) after a 4.4% decline while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.5% (0.1% y/y) after easing 0.3% in August. Defense capital goods orders jumped 6.4% and by one-half y/y, following an 8.4% increase.

Shipments from all manufacturing industries eased 0.4% (+0.2% y/y) during September after falling 0.7% in August. Durable goods shipments fell 0.6% (+1.6% y/y) last month, the same as in August. Transportation product shipments fell 2.4% (+4.3% y/y) after a 2.3% decline. Shipments excluding the transportation sector rose 0.3% both m/m and y/y after rising 0.2% in August. Machinery shipments held steady (-0.4% y/y) after rising 0.4% while computer & equipment shipments improved 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) after holding steady in August. Electrical equipment & appliance shipments rose 0.9% (1.3% y/y) following a 0.5% increase. Nondurable goods shipments fell 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) after falling 0.7% in August.

Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y) in September for the third straight month. Unfilled orders in transportation sector rose 0.1% (5.0% y/y) after rising 0.2% in August. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.2% (-0.2% y/y), the same as they did in August. Unfilled orders for durable goods less transportation rose 0.2% (-0.2% y/y) and have been trending sideways since 2022.

Inventories of all manufactured products eased 0.2% in September (+0.2% y/y) after a 0.1% August rise. Durable goods inventories slipped 0.2% (+0.9% y/y) after holding roughly three straight months. Nondurable goods inventories slipped 0.1% (-0.9% y/y) after rising 0.2% in August, though petroleum inventories fell 1.4% (-6.2% y/y in September after rising 0.4% in August.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Transportation orders decline with falloff in aircraft orders; excluding  transportation, orders rise modestly.
- Shipments ease for second month. Outside of transportation, shipments rise slightly.
- Unfilled orders rise negligibly for third straight month while inventories slip.

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