Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Tom Moeller

251210F4.jpg

251210G4.jpg

The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.8% (3.5% y/y) in Q3’25 after an unrevised 0.9% gain in Q2, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the smallest increase in the last four quarters. A 0.9% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.  Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% (3.5% y/y) in Q3, down from a 1.0% gain in Q2. Benefits increased 0.8% (3.5% y/y) following a 0.7% rise.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% (3.5% y/y), and reversed the Q2 acceleration to 1.0%. Wages & salaries for private industry workers also increased 0.8% (3.6% y/y) and reversed the Q2 acceleration to 1.0%. Benefits for private industry workers rose 0.8% (3.5% y/y) in Q3 after slowing to 0.7% in Q2 from 1.2% in Q1, which was the largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% (3.6% y/y) after a 0.9% gain. Wages rose 0.8% (3.6% y/y) for the third consecutive quarter while benefits gained 0.8% (3.5% y/y) after increasing 0.7% in Q2. Manufacturing compensation rose 0.8% last quarter (3.4% y/y) following a 1.0% rise. Construction compensation accelerated to 1.2% (3.8% y/y from 0.8% in Q2.

Compensation in private service-producing industries improved 0.8% (3.6% y/y) in Q3, after a 1.0% increase. The latest rise in services compensation reflected a 1.1% gain (3.5% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities. Information compensation rose 0.8% (2.9% y/y) after accelerating to a three-year high of 1.4% in Q2, and a 0.8% gain (4.1% y/y) in healthcare & social assistance compensation. Leisure compensation improved 0.6% (2.8% y/y) while education & health services compensation increased 0.8% (3.9% y/y). Professional & business services compensation rose a lessened 0.5% (3.3% y/y) while financial activities compensation increased 0.4% (4.1% y/y). State & local government compensation rose 0.8% (3.6% y/y).

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

251210H4.jpg

251210I4.jpg

- Compensation continues to decelerate.
- Wage growth eases.
- Benefits increase edges up.

U.S. Employment Cost Index Growth Eases in Q3’25

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

251210A.jpg

251210B.jpg

Mortgage applications jumped 4.8% w/w (45.4% y/y) in the week of December 5, following a decline of 1.4% w/w (+46.3% y/y) in the week ending November 28, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 2.4% w/w (+17.2% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 2.5% (15.2% y/y) in the November 28 week and jumping 7.6% in the November 21 week. Applications for loan refinancing soared 14.3% (87.8% y/y) in the week ended December 5, after retrenching 4.4% (+109.0% y/y) in the November 28 week. The December 5 jump breaks the fifth straight w/w decline.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 1bp to 6.50% in the week ending December 5 from 6.49% in the week ending November 28, and after rising to 6.58% in the week ending November 21. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 2bps to 5.87% in the latest week from 5.89% in the November 28 week. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans rose 5bps to 6.57% in the week of December 5 from 6.52% in the prior week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 32bps to 5.80% in the December 5 week from 5.48% in the November 28 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 58.2% of total applications in the December 5 week from 53.0% in the week ending November 28. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity fell to 7.0% in the latest week from 8.0% in the November 28 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan fell 0.7% (+7.1% y/y) to $394,200 in the December 5 week, following a rise of 0.4% w/w (5.2% y/y) to $397,100 in the November 28 week. The average size of a purchase loan fell 0.4% (1.3% y/y) to $421,700 in the latest week, after a 0.9% decline to $423,300 in the November 28 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage edged up 0.2% (19.4% y/y) to $374,500 in the December 5 week, following a 1.6% rise to $373,900 in the November 28 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

-  Purchase applications fell 2.4% w/w; refinancing loan applications soared 14.3% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans largely unchanged at 6.50%.
- Average loan size fell moderately.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Jump in the Week of December 5

Robert Brusca

251210E.jpg

**Swedish IP turns up sour in October**: Industrial production in Sweden fell 5.7% in October, a relatively large decline, but it comes in a period when industrial production has been unusually volatile. Going back to July, industrial production fell month-to-month by 7.8%, then rose by 5.6% in August, rose again by 4.3% in September, and now fell by 5.7% in October. These month-to-month figures show a great deal of volatility in this series for industrial production excluding construction. The performance for overall manufacturing production is similarly volatile. The components in the table show that vehicle production, intermediate goods production, investment goods production, and the production of consumer nondurables all demonstrate the same kinds of monthly volatility.

**Broader sequential growth rates settle down**: Turning to sequential growth rates, conditions appeared to settle down to some extent, as industrial production excluding construction rises 6.6% over 12 months, at a slower of 5% annual rate over six months, then hops up to a 16.6% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing demonstrates the same growth slowdown and spurts over 12 months, six months, and three months. So does motor vehicle production, but with even greater extremes in the swings. The production of intermediate goods, on the other hand, shows steady acceleration. The investment goods sector shows growth over 12 months leading to a six-month slowdown and then a super spurt over three months that brings the growth rate to 50% annualized. Consumer nondurables output, on the other hand, shows a consistent slowdown from a 15.9% increase over 12 months to an 11.7% annual rate of increase over six months, to a decline of 1.7% at an annual rate over three months.

**All are off their cycle peaks**: All industrial production figures are well off of cycle peaks with motor vehicles the farthest off their cycle peak at just under 80% of their cycle peak, a standing similar for consumer nondurables. Overall industrial production excluding construction is only about 6 percentage points below its actual peak. 

**Quarter-to-date**: The quarter to date industrial production excluding construction and the figure for overall manufacturing both showing annual rate declines between 7 and 10% at an annual rate. Motor vehicle production is making a modest recovery with a low single-digit growth rate. Intermediate goods are so far flat in the new quarter, with the investment goods output rising at a 22.1% annual rate and consumer nondurables output falling at a 37.2% annual rate. Once again, we see a great deal of volatility in these figures.

**Current growth rate rankings over 24 years**: However, taking an historic context, if we confine ourselves to looking at the year-over-year growth rates for Swedish industrial production, we find that overall production excluding construction has the growth rate with an 85.2 percentile standing. Manufacturing has an 84-percentile standing. Intermediate goods have a 71.5 percentile standing, with consumer nondurables having an 86-percentiles standing; investment goods have only a 63% standing. The production of motor vehicles has a 41.6% standing; it is the only category with a growth rate below its historic median. 

**Industrial order volumes**
The picture for order volume is volatility by month; however, on a sequential timeline from 12-months to six-months to three-months, order volume is accelerating. Domestic order volume is accelerating at an extremely rapid rate with orders at 23.8% year-over-year, a six-month growth rate of 43.9%, and a three-month growth rate of 116.4% annualized. Foreign orders also experience ongoing acceleration but to a much less extent, running from 4.5% over 12 months, to a 12.9% annual rate over six months, up to an 18.4% annualized pace over three months.

**QTD and % of cycle highlights**: Not surprisingly the orders growth rate is at a cycle high for domestic orders; the quarter-to-date total orders and domestic order growth are running at extremely strong rates. Foreign orders growth is at a negative 4.8% annualized for the first month in the new quarter. 

**Rankings**: The ranking of the year-over-year growth rates finds total order volume at a 91.9% standing, domestic orders at a 99.3% standing, and foreign orders at a 62.1% standing, all of them above their historic medians by a wide margin.

**Memo: Unemployment**
For comparison, we include the unemployment rate at the bottom of this table, and we see that Swedish unemployment continues to hover at an exceptionally high level. Ranked on data back to January 2021, the unemployment rate is at its top 2%. In fact, the October unemployment rate is the sixth highest monthly rate on this timeline. Despite what appears to be solid and even strong performance by the industrial sector, Swedish unemployment continues to linger at a level that is historically high for Sweden.

251210.jpg

Sweden

Sweden’s Industrial Production Falls in October

251209X.jpg

251209Y.jpg

Job openings edged up 0.2% (0.7% y/y) to 7.670 million in October, after surging to 7.658 million in September, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%.	It remained below its record of 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) to 6.894 million in October, after surging 6.4% in September. The private openings rate held steady at 4.8%. Job openings in construction fell 7.8% (-14.5% y/y), after rising 22.9%, while manufacturing openings rose 6.5% (-9.9% y/y) following a 5.9% shortfall. Professional & business services openings fell 7.6% (+2.2% y/y), after surging 21.6% in September. Leisure/hospitality openings declined 1.9% (-0.6% y/y) after strong increases in the prior two months. Openings in private education & healthcare rose 3.0% (-3.0% y/y), after easing 0.7% in September. Financial sector openings plummeted 20.0% (-22.0% y/y), after increasing 15.1% in September. Government openings fell 1.5% (-13.9% y/y) in October, after rising 2.2% in September.

Private sector hiring declined 4.5% (-3.8% y/y) to 4.796 million in October, after a 4.5% September Increase. This was the fifth shortfall in six months and nearly the lowest reading in over a year. The total hiring rate fell to 3.2%, equaling its lowest reading since April 2020. Construction jobs declined 11 .8% (-3.1% y/y), following a 0.6% rise while manufacturing employment declined 4.4% both m/m and y/y, after rising 4.9%. Hiring in trade, transportation & utilities rose 1.5% (-8.9% y/y), after a 3.2% increase. Financial services hiring fell 5.5% (+11.9% y/y), after rising 3.3%. Professional & business services declined 7.7% (-1.8% y/y), after a 1.5% rise. Private educational & health services employment declined 10.5% (-4.4% y/y), after a 17.5% strengthening. Government jobs rose 2.0% (-2.5% y/y), after strengthening 7.8% in September.

Total separations fell 4.1% (-4.4% y/y) to 5.050 million in October, after a 3.0% September rise. The total separations rate slipped to 3.2%. Private separations fell 3.9% (-5.4% y/y) to 4.708 million, while government sector separations weakened 6.3% (+10.3% y/y). Total quits declined 6.0% (-8.6% y/y), the eighth monthly drop this year. Private sector quits fell 5.2% (-9.1% y/y), the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Layoffs and discharges rose 4.1% (3.7% y/y) to 1.854 million in October, after a 3.2% September rise. Private sector layoffs rose 3.1% (2.9% y/y) in October.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Minimal rise in job openings follows sharp September increase.
- Sizable hiring decline reverses earlier increase.
- Separations fall sharply as quits plunge and layoffs rise.

U.S. JOLTS—Openings Rise Slightly; Hiring Declines in October

Winnie Tapasanun

251209T36.jpg

251209U36.jpg

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 99.0 in November, the highest level since August, from 98.2 in October and 98.8 in September, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the seventh consecutive month that the index was above the 52-year average of 98. The index was down from its recent peak of 105.1 in December 2024 and 101.7 in November 2024 but up from a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Six of the 10 index components rose, three fell, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose to 91 in November following a 12-point plunge to 88 in October, driven primarily by an increase in business owners expressing uncertainty about their capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months. The index, while down from its record high of 110 in October 2024, was above its recent low of 86 in December 2024 and a low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the 13th straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to 15% in November, the lowest level since April, on top of a three-point decline to 20% in October; these readings were well below their recent high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales rose to a net 15% in November from 6% in October, marking the strongest of seven successive positive readings and the highest level since January 2025. The latest figure was below its recent high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -9% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -13% in October. The latest result remained below the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business held steady at 13% in November and October, the highest reading since August; the latest figure, while down from its recent high of 20% in December 2024, was up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays fell to 20% in November, the lowest reading since April, from a 10-month-high 23% in October; these numbers were down from their recent high of 28% in November 2024 and a high of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions declined to -5% in November from -3% in October; this result was slightly below its recent high of -2% in December 2024 but above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net -1% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in November, up from -4% in October.

On the labor front, fifty percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in November, slightly up from 49% in October. These numbers were up from the recent low of 43% in August but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 19% planned to increase employment in November, up from 15% in October and posting the highest reading since December 2024; it was above a low of 11% in March 2024 but below a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 33% reported positions not able to be filled in November, up slightly from 32% in October and the highest level since July; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure increased to -23% in November, a still-weak reading, following a nine-point drop to -25% in October. These readings, while up from a low of -37% in August 2024, were below the most recent high of -16% in September and a high of -5% in June 2021.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices, though trending lower, remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices jumped to 34% in November after a three-point decline to 21% in October, marking the highest reading since March 2023 and the biggest m/m increase in the survey’s history. The latest reading was up from 24% in November 2024 but well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices held steady at 30% in November following a one-point dip to 30% in October; it was above 28% in November 2024 but below highs of 33% in March 2024 and 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the November survey. A net 26% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, unchanged from October. It was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 24% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 19% reported in October and marking the highest reading since December 2024; this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

The quality of labor was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 21% of NFIB members in November, down six points from 27% in October. Inflation ranked second and remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 15% of respondents in November—the highest reading since March 2025—compared with 12% in October; these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Taxes ranked third as the next most important problem, as reported by 14% of respondents in November—the lowest reading since November 2024—compared with 16% in October. Other concerns (in November vs. October) included insurance cost/availability (10% vs. 8%), government requirements (10% vs. 7%), poor sales (9% vs. 10%), labor costs (8% vs. 8%), and other issues (7% vs. 5%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

251209V36.jpg

251209W36.jpg

- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx up 0.8 pts. to 99.0 in Nov., driven by stronger real sales expectations.
- Uncertainty Idx up 3 pts. to 91, reflecting uncertainty about CapEx plans.
- Expectations for economy down 5 pts. to a 7-month-low 15%.
- Expected real sales up 9 pts. to 15%, highest since Jan. ’25.
- Plans to expand business unchanged at 13%.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices up 13 pts. to 34%, highest since March ’23 and largest m/m increase on record.
- Quality of labor (21%), inflation (15%), and taxes (14%) are the top three business concerns.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises to a Three-Month High in November

251209C20.jpg

251209D20.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to an average $3.07 per gallon (-1.9% y/y) in the week ended December 8 after falling to $3.12 per gallon during the prior week. It was the lowest price since May 2021. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. Haver Analytics seasonally adjusts the retail price of regular grade gasoline. That price rose to $3.18 per gallon last week after falling to $3.17 in the previous week. Diesel fuel prices declined to $3.67 per gallon last week (+6.0% y/y) after falling to $3.76 per gallon in the prior week.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to an average $59.33 per barrel (-13.3% y/y) in the week ended December 5, after falling to $58.50 per barrel in the prior week from $59.46. Prices remained under their recent high of $74.17 during the third week of June. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $58.88 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $63.98 per barrel (-13.5% y/y) last week, after rising to $64.38 in the prior week from $63.64. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $63.30 per barrel.

Natural gas prices increased to an average $4.97/mmbtu (71.4% y/y) in the week ended December 5 after rising to $4.36/mmbtu in the prior week. The increase left prices at the highest level since the third week of February and well above the low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024. Yesterday, the price was $5.02/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 1.2% y/y in the four weeks ending November 28, after edging 0.1% higher y/y in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products fell 0.5% y/y after holding steady y/y in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries declined 0.6% y/y in the four weeks ending November 28, after falling 2.2% y/y in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories eased 0.1% y/y in the week ending November 28 following a 1.1% y/y decline in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories slipped 0.3% y/y in the November 28 week after falling 1.3% y/y in the prior week. Working higher, crude oil inventories rose 2.9% y/y in the week of November 28 after increasing 2.4% y/y in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 24.8 days in the week ended November 28, a six-week high, from 23.9 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 7, 2024. The supply of crude oil slipped w/w to 26.1 days in the week of November 28 from 26.7 days in the prior week. The supply remained below a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **USENERGY** databases.

- Gasoline prices fall sharply to four-year low.
- Crude oil prices reverse prior week’s decline.
- Natural gas prices move to highest level since February.
- Gasoline demand falls sharply y/y.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

251209E.jpg

Japan's economy watchers index stepped back in November after making some strong strides in October. But the current index and the future index retained stronger values in November than in September even with the backtracking compared to October so that the October improvement actually continues to hold merit. However, there is no follow-through on the October gain.

In November, the current index declined in the headline as well as in six components, with only three components showing improvement month-to-month. The three showing improvement were retailing, services, and nonmanufacturers.  

Over three months and point-to-point comparison, the headline improves and seven of nine components improve. Over six months, the headline improves and 8 of 9 components improve. However over 12 months, the headline barely ticks higher and only three components improve compared to 12 months ago.

The queue standing for the current index headline is that 60.9%, leaving it above its historic median. All the components have readings above their 50th percentile except for eating and drinking establishments, housing, manufacturing, and employment. Unfortunately, the employment standing at 26.9% is the weakest of the lot. And despite the breath and other categories, that's concerning.

The future index in November showed month-to-month declines across the board for the headline as well as for all of the components. In October there were increases across the board for the headline and all components while in September there were increases in the headline and all components except two with the lagging components being services and employment. Over three months the future headline increases and all the components increase except for housing. Over six months the future index increases and all the components increase. Over 12 months the future headline increases and all the components improve except for housing, manufacturers, and employment. The standing for the future index in November is at its 68.8 percentile and all the components have standings above their 50th percentile except housing and employment. All the components that have standings above the 50th percentile have standings that are pretty much at the 60th percentile or higher except for manufacturing with a rating of 55.7 percentile.

These findings show that both the current and the future indexes are relatively strong with solid breadth. However, there's even stronger readings and breadth across the future index than for the current index. While the current index and the future index have stepped down relative to October, both show solid and strong momentum over three and six months; however, over 12 months the future index shows better momentum than the current index. This is interesting because Japan has recently installed a new Prime Minister and the Bank of Japan is being looked at more closely; it is beginning to more seriously consider rate hikes as inflation looks to be a more entrenched problem that the central bank is getting ready to turn its attention to.

251209.jpg

Japan

Japan’s Economy Watchers Index Backs Off

251208F1.jpg

251208H1.jpg

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.1% during the four weeks ended December 5, 2025 after rising 0.3% in the prior four-week period. The index increased 2.1% y/y last week following a 1.6% y/y gain in the last week of November.

**Metals** sector prices increased 2.8% (12.6% y/y) in the last four weeks after a 0.3% slip in the prior four week-period. Tin prices surged 9.6% (38.9% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of copper scrap surged 5.2% (26.3% y/y) and the cost of steel scrap rose 2.9% (5.2% y/y) in four weeks. Zinc prices rose 2.6% (6.2% y/y) in four weeks but lead prices weakened 2.0% (-4.4% y/y. Also moving lower, the cost of aluminum eased 0.6% (+10.3% y/y).

**Crude oil & benzene** costs rose 1.7% (-6.4% y/y) in the last four weeks, following a 0.8% rise in the previous period. The price of the petro-chemical benzene surged 13.9% (-4.8% y/y) in four weeks. Moving down, the cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.2% in four weeks to $59.01 per barrel and declined 14.0% y/y. The price remained increased from a low of $58.47 in the third week of last month.

**Excluding crude oil**, the industrial commodity price index increased 1.3% (3.1% y/y) over the last four weeks after rising 0.6% during the prior four-week period.

**Miscellaneous** sector prices improved 0.8% in the last four weeks, down 2.9% y/y, after rising 0.3% in the prior period. The cost of tallow, used for frying & baking, rose 8.4% (14.4% y/y) in four weeks. Natural rubber prices rose 1.3% in four weeks, but declined 13.0% y/y. Framing lumber prices eased 0.6% (-8.9% y/y) in four weeks.

**Textile** group prices eased 0.4% during the last four weeks after rising 0.7% in the prior four-week periods. They strengthened 2.7% y/y. The cost of burlap declined 4.0% in the last four weeks while soaring 43.2% over the last year. Cotton prices improved 0.5% in four weeks but declined 7.2% y/y.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

251208G1.jpg

251208I1.jpg

- Higher metals prices lead upturn.
- Crude oil & framing lumber prices also rise.
- Textile prices ease.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Post Broad-Based Gains in Latest Four Weeks

large_251212F1.jpg

medium_251212F1.jpg

small_251212F1.jpg

thumbnail_251212F1.jpg

251212F1.jpg

large_251212G1.jpg

medium_251212G1.jpg

small_251212G1.jpg

thumbnail_251212G1.jpg

251212G1.jpg

The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) improved 0.9% (3.6% y/y) to 106.2 in October after rising 4.7% in September, revised from 3.9%, following a 2.8% increase in August. The index level was the highest since February 2023. The level of home affordability was 18.1% higher than its low of 89.9 in October 2023, but 40.7% below the peak of 179.0 in April 2020.

The rise in October affordability occurred as the average mortgage rate fell to 6.33% from 6.43% in September. The fall in mortgage rates left them above their low of 6.26% in September of last year, though below a 7.70% high in October of 2023. They remained well above a December 2020 low of 2.73%. The median price of an existing single-family home rose 0.7% (2.2% y/y) to $420,600. That price compared to the record $438,600 in June 2025. In October, the principal plus interest payment eased 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) to $2,089 per month, down 9.6% from June’s record high of $2,311, but still well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged a slightly lessened 23.5% of income during October, but remained well above a low of 14.0% of income in April 2020.

The change in housing costs in October was accompanied by a 0.5% rise (3.8% y/y) in median family income to $106,478 after falling 0.3% in September. Qualifying income declined 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) to $100,272, after falling for three straight months.

Housing affordability improved m/m in most of the country in October. The index in the Midwest, the country’s most affordable region, rose 1.5% (0.9% y/y) to 134.4. In the South, the index increased 0.7% (5.4% y/y) to 112.1, while the affordability index in the Northeast strengthened 1.1% (-1.4% y/y) to 93.7. Declining, however, was the affordability index in the West, where homes are the least affordable. The index eased 0.3% (+5.3% y/y) to 75.2 in October.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990. It reached an all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

large_251212H1.jpg

medium_251212H1.jpg

small_251212H1.jpg

thumbnail_251212H1.jpg

251212H1.jpg

large_251212I1.jpg

medium_251212I1.jpg

small_251212I1.jpg

thumbnail_251212I1.jpg

251212I1.jpg

- Mortgage rates continue to decline.
- Median income strengthens.
- Affordability improves in most of country.

U.S. Housing Affordability Edges Higher in October

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

251211DA1.jpg

**ASIAER** → **South Korea** → Housing and Construction → Housing Market Consumer Sentiment Index

The housing market consumer sentiment indexes for South Korea were added to the **ASIAER** database. Series are available for 17 regions + aggregates for the Seoul metropolitan area and the non-capital regions. Values range between 0 and 200, where values >100 indicate more respondents said prices rose or transaction increased. Below 95 is considered as a downturn, 95-115 is considered steady, and >115 an upturn. Monthly data are sourced from the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements and start in March 2011.

Chart: Consumer sentiment in the housing market rose once again in October. Eyes are on these data since restrictive measures took effect in mid-October designating all of Seoul and other areas as speculative zones, while also tightening mortgage rules to stabilize the market and curb speculative investment. The full impact of these measures is expected to reflect in the November results.

251211DA2.jpg

**EMERGELA** → **Chile** → Employment and Earnings → Minimum Wage

A minimum wage series for Chile was added to the **EMERGELA** database. The wage, reported in Chilean pesos represents a full month of wages. Chile's minimum wage ranks among the highest in Latin America. This monthly series is sourced from Direccion del Trabajo and starts in July 1983.

Chart: Historically, the minimum wage has been adjusted at the start of each year, but adjustments have been more frequent in recent years. As of May 1, 2025, Chile's statutory minimum wage increased to CLP 529,000 per month for workers aged 18 to 65, up from CLP 510,636. This adjustment is part of a broader effort to address inflation and cost of living concerns. An additional increase to CLP 539,000 is scheduled for January 1, 2026, contingent upon inflation conditions and budget planning.

251211DA3.jpg

**Brazil** → Chicken Egg Production

Egg production statistics for Brazil was added to the Haver offering. This data set available for 26 Brazilian regions includes _for consumption and for incubation_ quantity of eggs produced, number of laying hens, and also the number of respondents. Quarterly data are sourced from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and start in Q1 2012.

Chart: Egg production for domestic consumption reached 2.03 billion dozen in the first half of 2025, a 9.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The domestic market typically absorbs 99% of production - however, in June, the export share rose to 3% when exports reached a record 7.4 million kg. This trend reversed in July due to the announcement of a 50% tariff imposed by the US on Brazil, in effect since August 6th.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Housing Affordability Edges Higher in October

Recent Commentaries

Charts of the Week: The Downside Risks

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows to Five-Year Low in September

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rose in Latest Week

The Curious Case of Swedish Inflation

Featured Data Additions, December 11, 2025

FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate Target as Expected

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints