Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Tom Moeller

241104J1.jpg

241104K1.jpg

The Commerce Department reported that inventories in the factory sector declined 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) during September after a 0.1% August rise. During the last six months, inventories have been little changed. Durable goods inventories eased 0.2% (+0.9% y/y) after holding steady. Transportation equipment inventories fell 0.6% (+3.8% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Furniture inventories rose 0.3% (-1.6% y/y) after falling 0.3% while electrical equipment inventories rose 0.2% (-1.4% y/y) following no change in August. Amongst nondurable goods industries, inventories eased 0.3% (-0.9% y/y) after rising 0.3% in August. Food product inventories eased 0.1% (-2.3% y/y) after falling 0.2%. Petroleum & coal inventories fell 2.2% (-7.0% y/y) following a 0.2% rise and plastics & rubber inventories rose 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) following a 0.5% increase. These changes were accompanied by a 0.6% increase (2.6% y/y) in apparel after they rose 0.7%. Chemical inventories gained 0.6% (2.6% y/y) after a 0.7% rise while paper product inventories gained 0.5% (1.5% y/y) after a 0.6% rise.

Orders to all manufacturers fell 0.5% (-1.6% y/y) in September following a 0.8% August fall. The decline was led by a 0.7% weakening (-2.1% y/y) in durable goods orders after they fell 0.9% in August. Transportation orders dropped 3.1% (-7.9% y/y) after a 3.4% decline due to a second decline in commercial aircraft. New orders excluding transportation edged up 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.2%. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) eased 0.2% (-1.2% y/y) after falling 0.7%. The decline reflected a 1.8% decline (-17.0% y/y) in orders to oil refineries which came after a 3.0% fall and a 0.1% slip (+5.3% y/y) in basic chemicals for the second straight month. Orders for textile products rose 0.3% (-0.7% y/y) following a 0.1% slip and apparel orders dipped 0.2% (-2.8% y/y) after they fell 1.7% in August. Orders for food products rose 0.2% (1.3% y/y) after easing 0.1% and paper product orders held eased 0.1% (+2.2% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Durable goods shipments fell 0.5% (+1.6% y/y) about as they did in August. Transportation shipments fell 2.4% (+4.3% y/y) following a 2.2% drop while excluding transportation shipments held steady (-0.6% y/y) after a 0.4% decline.

Unfilled orders improved 0.2% in September (3.1% y/y) for the third straight month. Excluding the transportation sector, they rose 0.2% (-0.2% y/y), the same as in August. Backlogs of electrical equipment edged 0.1% higher and were steady y/y after they rose 0.4% in August. Unfilled orders in the machinery sector eased 0.3% (-4.0% y/y), the same as in August and unfilled orders for transportation equipment edged 0.1% higher (5.0% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. Unfilled orders of furniture rose 0.2% (0.2% y/y) in September following a 0.9% decline and fabricated metals backlogs rose 0.7% (0.6% y/y) after rising 0.2% in August.

The factory sector figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

241104L1.jpg

241104M1.jpg

- Inventory easing follows six months of little change.
- Order weakening is led by aircraft.
- Unfilled orders steady, and they remain soft.

U.S. Factory Inventories & Orders Slip in September

Robert Brusca

241104E.jpg

On the month, 7 of 18 countries reported weaker manufacturing PMI results than they had the month before. However, the median on a month-to-month basis didn't change at all. Sequentially looking at averages over 12 months, six months and three months, we see the median hasn't changed very much across that span either. It has stayed just below the value of 50, which indicates unchanged output, oscillating between values of 49.6 and 49.7. That's a great deal of consistency for these averages over these three different multi-month segments. All this as global trade growth has come to a halt according to the Baltic trade volume index.

The bottom line is that there isn't really a lot of trend in these overall data and the conditions of economic weakness remain in force although it's weakness of the mildest sort, technically below the value of 50 but - for the most part – these are numeric figures that would round up to a value of 50!

The queue percentile standings show that among these 18 observations, only 6 have values above their historic medians; that would refer to any queue percentile standing value of about 50%. The average percentile standing across all 18 reporting units is at 48.6, again fairly close to breakeven; however, the median value is only at 36.8% - the median is significantly weaker than the average.

As a group, the strongest reporters are the ‘BRIC’ reporters, with queue percentile standings at 54.4% for China, 35.1% for Russia, 73.7% for India, and 61.4% for Brazil. The weakest reporters in the table are Turkey at a 7% standing, France at a 17.5 percentile standing and Indonesia and a 19.3 percentile standing.

Looking at changes since January 2020 when COVID began to emerge, ten of the 18 reporters have even weaker values today than they had in January 2020 while the strongest reporters are Russia 2.7 points higher, India 2.2 points higher, and Brazil 1.9 points higher. No other country has a gain relative to January 2020 any stronger than 0.7 points.

Looking at the breadth of improvement, 66.7% improving compared to where they were 12-months ago; we see 38.9% improving over six months compared to over 12 months and 27.8% improving over three months compared to six months ago. This trend is unnerving, showing smaller, and smaller, proportions of reporters that are doing better than they had been doing over the previous period. And this is not good news even though the diffusion median value hasn't changed very much nor have the various period averages.

241104.jpg

**The global scene**
Manufacturing globally is simply struggling, and it may still be a legacy effect from the COVID when service sectors had been shut down and demand was funneled into the goods sector encouraging overproduction and inventory building. However, in the wake of COVID, there's also been more creeping protectionism, and of course, there have been wars in place with sanctions accompanying these wars where the sanctions contribute substantially to trade restrictions. Now it's a complicated picture of a global economy where special entanglements are deleterious to the pursuit of growth.

In the S&P format, the U.S. shows a slight improvement in manufacturing in October compared to its September PMI. However, the sequential 12-month, 6-month, and 3-month averages mark an ongoing slowdown. In the euro area, there's also a pickup in October compared to September. The euro area marks a small slowdown over three months compared to six months even though 6-months improved relative to 12-months. The euro area 3-month average PMI reading is still below its 12-month average PMI reading. Global growth progress is slow against a strong current.

In short, the PMI data results are not very uplifting and don't contribute to a view of better growth or very much to a view of lessened price pressures since the weak conditions continue to skim only slightly below the breakeven level. There isn't enough slack being created to have much effect on prices anywhere. In some sense, the S&P global manufacturing report for October has no good news for anyone.

MFG PMIs from S&P Stagnate

241101A4.jpg

241101B4.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000 (1.3% y/y) in October after rising 223,000 in September, revised from 254,000, and 78,000 in August, revised from 159,000. Expectations had been for a 125,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The damage from Hurricanes Milton & Helene plus the Boeing strike pulled the three-month average change to 104,000, the weakest since a decline in June 2020.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month following a rise of 0.3% in September, revised from 0.4%. Earnings growth rose to 4.0% y/y from 3.9% in September. It was the strongest y/y increase since May, but remained below the 5.9% high in March 2022. A 0.3% October increase had been expected.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held at an expected 4.1% in October. It reached a low of 3.4% in April of last year.  Household employment fell 368,000 after increasing 430,000 in September. The labor force declined 220,000 after a 150,000 September gain. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons, was unchanged at 7.7%.

In the **payroll survey**, private-sector employment declined 28,000 (+1.2% y/y) in October after rising 192,000 in September. Construction sector employment increased 8,000 (2.7% y/y) last month after rising 27,000 in September. Factory sector payrolls fell 46,000 (-0.4% y/y) after falling 6,000.

Private service-producing employment improved 9,000 in October (1.3% y/y) after a 169,000 September rise. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health service jobs rose 57,000 (3.8% y/y) but leisure & hospitality employment fell 4,000 (+1.4% y/y). Professional & business service jobs weakened 47,000 (-0.1% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Within that category, the number of temporary jobs fell 48,500 (-7.6% y/y) and have fallen consistently since a March 2022 high. Trade, transportation & utilities employment fell 1,000 (+0.6% y/y) while financial activities jobs held steady (+0.3% y/y). Information sector employment increased 3,000 last month (0.3% y/y).

Government sector payrolls improved 40,000 in October (2.0% y/y) after increasing 31,000 in September. Local government jobs improved 21,000 (2.0% y/y) while state government employment rose 18,000 (2.3% y/y). The number of federal government jobs increased 1,000 (1.7% y/y).

The 0.4% October rise in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.3% gain (4.7% y/y) in the goods-producing sector. Earnings in construction improved 0.3% (4.6% y/y) while factory sector earnings rose 0.3% (4.8% y/y). In the services sector, earnings rose 0.4% last month (3.9% y/y). Information sector earnings strengthened 1.4% (5.1% y/y) while professional & business service-sector earnings increased 0.6% (5.1% y/y). Leisure & hospitality earnings rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y). Financial sector earnings increased 0.5% (4.4% y/y). Private education & health services earnings edged 0.1% higher (2.9% y/y) while trade, transportation and utilities pay jumped 0.5% (3.1% y/y) in October.

241101C4.jpg

241101D4.jpg

The length of the average workweek in the private sector stood at 34.3 hours in October for the third straight month. The workweek in the goods-producing sector of 39.7 hours compared to 39.8 hours in the previous two months. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.2. The factory sector workweek was little changed at 39.9 hours while the average workweek in the private service sector was steady at 33.2 hours. The aggregate weekly hours index in the private sector, a key indicator of production and income, increased slightly versus the third quarter.

In the **household survey**, the steady 4.1% jobless rate occurred as employment fell 0.2% and the size of the labor force eased 0.1%. The labor force participation rate of 62.6% compared to three straight months at 62.7%. The rate for teenagers dropped to 35.8%, while for individuals aged 20-24, the rate rose to 71.8%, a six-month high. The participation rate for workers aged 25-54 the rate fell to 83.5%, down from a high of 84.0% three months earlier, but for workers 55 and over, it was 38.6 hours for the third straight month.

The employment/population ratio for all workers eased to 60.0% in October from 60.2% in September. It remained below its high of 61.1% in February 2020, just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

241101X4.jpg

241101F4.jpg

- Hurricanes close businesses & reduce production.
- Increase in earnings extends trend of improved growth.
- Unchanged jobless rate remains below July peak.

U.S. Payroll Employment Reduced by Storms & Strike During October; Earnings Improve & Jobless Rate Steadies

241101F20.jpg

241101G20.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales rose 0.8% (4.1% y/y) to 16.18 million units (SAAR) in October after rising 4.9% to 16.05 million in September, revised from 16.13 million. It was the highest level of sales in six months. The rise in October vehicle sales accompanied 3.1% y/y growth in real disposable income through September which compared to 4.7% growth logged last year. Earlier figures were revised.

Sales of light trucks rose 1.5% (4.8% y/y) during October to 12.98 million units (SAAR) after rising 4.4% in September. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks rose 1.6% (5.4% y/y) to 9.89 million units, after rising 4.7% in September. Sales of imported light trucks increased 1.0% (1.6% y/y) to 3.09 million units following September’s 3.7% rise.

Trucks’ 80.2% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 79.7% in September and 79.6% in October of last year. The share was 79.3% during all of 2023.

Auto sales fell 1.5% (+0.9% y/y) to 3.20 million units (SAAR) in October following a 6.2% September increase. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 1.7% (+4.9% y/y) last month to 2.34 million units after rising 7.2% in September. Sales of imported autos declined 3.4% (-9.6% y/y) to 0.85 million units after rising 4.8% in September.

Imports' share of the U.S. light vehicle market eased to 24.4% in October from 24.6% in September. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% after it reached a high of 26.3% in November of last year. Imports' share of the passenger car market eased to 26.6% last month from 27.1% in September. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.8% last month from 23.9% in September.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

241101H20.jpg

241101I20.jpg

- Light truck purchases improve, but auto sales decline.
- Total domestic vehicle sales increase; imports are little changed.
- Imports' market share slips.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rise Modestly in October

241101J5.jpg

241101K5.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector slipped to 46.5 during October from 47.2 in September. It was the lowest level since July of last year and below the break-even level of 50.3 reached in March. A level of 47.6 in October had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Performance of the component indexes was mixed last month. The production index declined to 46.2 after rising to a four-month high of 49.8 in September. Seventeen percent of respondents reported higher production while 23.9% reported it lower. The inventories reading eased to 42.6 from 43.9, both readings down sharply from a high of 50.3 in August. The supplier delivery index slipped to 52.0 from 52.2, after hitting a high of 52.6 in July. Working higher, the new orders index rose to 47.1 from 46.1 in September. Twenty percent of respondents had increased orders but 29% realized declines. The employment reading rose to 44.4 from 43.9 in October, but it remained down from a high of 51.1 in May.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, rose to 54.8 (NSA) from 48.3 in September. An increased 19.8% of respondents reported higher prices last month while a lessened 10.3% reported lower prices.

In other series, export orders fell to a little-changed 45.5, down from a March high of 51.6. The imports index remained at 48.3, also off a March of 53.0 while order the order backlog index declined to 42.3, a three-month low.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

241101L5.jpg

241101M5.jpg

- Index down sharply from March high.
- Production & inventories indexes lead decline, orders & employment rise.
- Prices reading improves.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Eases in October

Winnie Tapasanun

241101N33.jpg

241101O33.jpg

The value of construction put in place edged up 0.1% m/m in September after an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in August (-0.1% initially) and a 0.04% downtick in July (-0.5% previously), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The September reading matched the forecast in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 1.1% drop in June followed a string of m/m gains during the May 2024 to November 2022 period. The year-on-year rate decelerated to 4.6% in September, the lowest since May 2023, from 4.8% in August. The latest y/y figure was lower than 7.4% in September 2023, having remained below its recent high of 9.8% in January 2024 and a peak of 18.6% in April 2022.

Private construction was virtually unchanged (3.8% y/y) in September following an upwardly revised 0.2% rise in August (-0.2% initially) and an upwardly revised 0.5% decline in July (-0.7% previously). Residential private construction increased 0.2% (4.1% y/y) in September following a 0.3% gain in August (-0.3% initially) and two successive m/m drops. Single-family building rose 0.4% (0.9% y/y), the first m/m rise since February, after a 1.3% August decrease; it was 45.8% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building, however, dipped 0.1% (-8.1% y/y), the 10th straight m/m decline, on top of a 0.3% August decrease; it was 13.9% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building was essentially unchanged (+13.5% y/y) in September following a 2.3% advance in August; it was 40.2% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction eased 0.1% (+3.5% y/y) in September, the second m/m decline in three months, following a 0.04% uptick in August. The September easing reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included health care (-1.1%; -0.4% y/y), communication (-0.3%; -0.9% y/y), office (-0.3%; +0.1% y/y), manufacturing (-0.2%; +20.2% y/y), transportation (-0.1%; +12.5% y/y), and utilities (-0.1%; +5.8% y/y). In contrast, the following private constructions rose m/m in September: religious (2.5%; -1.3% y/y), educational (0.6%; 3.1% y/y), commercial (0.2%; -14.8% y/y), and lodging (0.1%; -8.0% y/y). Meanwhile, amusement & recreation private construction was essentially unchanged (-1.5% y/y) in September following two consecutive m/m declines.

The value of public construction rose 0.5% (7.0% y/y) in September after a 0.04% uptick in August (+0.3% initially) and a 1.4% rebound in July (+0.5% previously), reflecting gains of 2.3% (8.3% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.4% (7.0% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The September rise reflected m/m increases in the following nonresidential public constructions. These included health care (1.4%; 6.2% y/y), transportation (1.3%; 4.9% y/y), office (1.0%; 10.2% y/y), commercial (0.7%; 33.2% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (0.5%; 5.2% y/y), water supply (0.4%; 18.2% y/y), and educational (0.3%; 3.9% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.5% of public construction spending, rose 0.5% (1.7% y/y) in September following a 0.8% rise in August and four straight m/m decreases. To the downside, the following public constructions fell m/m in September: conservation & development (-1.4%; -4.2% y/y), utilities (-0.7%; +9.6% y/y), public safety (-0.3%; +33.7% y/y), and amusement & recreation (-0.2%; +25.2% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

241101P33.jpg

241101Q33.jpg

- September construction spending +0.1% m/m (+4.6% y/y); August and July revised up.
- Residential private construction +0.2% m/m, led by a 0.4% rebound in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.1% m/m, down for the second month in three.
- Public sector construction +0.5% m/m, reflecting m/m rises in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.

U.S. Construction Spending Up Marginally in September for the Second Straight Month

241101E.jpg

Unemployment remains low in the euro area in September. It is tied for its all-time record low since the union was formed. So, the ranking of the rate is in its 0.3-percentile that says it has been this low or lower only 0.3% of the time. That is much lower than for any EMU member in the table. The lowest ranking (highest standing) in the table is Italy at 1.6% followed by Ireland at 7.4%. The reason the EMU rate ranks so much lower is that it is the confluence of all these low unemployment rates that is unusual making the EMU-wide rate even lower.

**Trends**
The sequential trends from 12-month to 6-months to 3-months shows five of 12 countries in the table with falling rates of unemployment. Only four show unemployment falling on balance over six months with one having unemployment unchanged. Five have unemployment unchanged over three months as well. This shows the trend for unemployment rate to fall is still in place and that may seem surprising given the weakness in some of the recent economic data from Europe. Of course, one reason for this is also that Europe’s large economy Germany has its unemployment rate rising over 12 months and six months and it is on a different trend that the EMU area- that seems unsustainable.

Over the most recent three months, we see the unemployment rate falls in six countries month-to-month in August compared to only three in September. September has five countries with the unemployment rate rising that compares to only three in August.

The labor market trends may be running out of gas as far as lowing the unemployment rate is concerned. Still, the ECB is still cutting rates to provide economic support. But the labor trend does not show decay sequentially. The annualized monthly drops are all in the same ballpark for 12-month, 6-month, and 3-month changes. But the situation with Germany needs to be resolved since it will be hard for the euro area to perform well if Germany can’t.

241101.jpg

Europe

EMU Unemployment Is Still at a Low Level and Easing

Andrew Cates

**Markets and data**
As noted, a soft landing narrative has continued to shape sentiment in financial markets in recent weeks. Incoming global growth data, most notably from the US, have been stronger than expected. And inflation outcomes have additionally been weaker-than-expected. As chart 1 below suggests that combination – stronger growth and weaker inflation – has typically been greeted positively by equity investors.

241031Z1.jpg

**US bond yields** 
That being said there has also been an active debate in markets about the potential consequences of a US election. US bond yields, for example, have been climbing possibly because of market fears about the burgeoning US federal government deficit and debt. Still, as chart 2 below suggests, the increase in yields has unfolded at the same time as the incoming US (and broader global growth) data have been outperforming expectations. Inasmuch as that trend additionally led to some re-pricing of Fed policy, economic fundamentals have arguably been the dominant driver of the US Treasury market, not fears about politics and deficits.

241031Z2.jpg

**Global growth momentum**
Still, although incoming US data have been outperforming expectations in recent weeks, latest forward looking business surveys suggest that global growth is losing momentum. October’s flash PMIs, for example, revealed that business activity contracted for a second consecutive month in the euro area and Australia, and slipped into a phase of decline in Japan as well. The UK additionally saw growth weaken sharply. And although the US continued to reveal resilience, that was primarily because of ongoing growth in the service sector - the manufacturing sector, in contrast, has been contracting for four consecutive months (see chart 3).

241031Z3.jpg

**UK fiscal policy** 
One reason why UK businesses may have elicited weaker confidence in recent weeks concerns fears about this week’s Budget. Some of the details, for example, had been widely telegraphed in the UK press. The specifics that were announced on October 30th included a large rise in public spending (amounting to over 2% of GDP per year), and with only half of that being recouped in higher taxes. About two-thirds of that higher tax burden, moreover, falls on the corporate sector. The UK’s fiscal watchdog – the Office for Budget Responsibility – expects overall public sector borrowing to rise from £121.9 billion (4.5 per cent of GDP) last year to £127.5 billion this year, before falling steadily back to £70.6 billion (2.1 per cent) by 2029-30. That’s about 0.9 per cent of GDP a year higher on average over the forecast horizon compared to their last projections in March (see chart 4).

241031Z4.jpg

**Japan’s politics**
Staying with policy and politics, Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), faced an electoral upset over the weekend, losing its majority in the lower house of Parliament. Even with the support of its coalition partner, Komeito, the LDP is now unable to form a majority. This has put Prime Minister Ishiba's position in jeopardy, as he may need to seek support from parties outside his usual allies to advance his policy agenda, should he continue in office. In response to the news, the yen weakened further, reflecting the market's concerns, while equities experienced a slight increase.

241031Z5.jpg

**China and US politics**
Ahead of next week’s US Presidential Elections there remains much uncertainty about the outlook for China (and the broader Asian region). Many observers are keen to assess the potential extent and nature of future policy actions toward China by an incoming president. Key concerns include the possibility of ongoing US efforts to curb China’s advancements in critical technologies, such as artificial intelligence, and trade-related restrictions aimed at addressing overcapacity in electric vehicles (EVs) and other sectors. Notably, presidential candidate and former President Trump, has proposed significantly raising tariffs on goods imported from China if elected. However, regardless of who takes office, it is likely that China will continue to face frictions with the US, as the latter has maintained a hawkish stance toward China over the past decade, irrespective of the sitting president.

241031Z6.jpg

Some unexpected resilience in the US economy and particularly in the labour market has continued to reinforce soft landing narratives over the past few days. At the broader global level, weaker-than-expected inflation data have also been reinforcing the view that most major central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy in the period ahead. In our charts this week we illustrate how this soft landing narrative continues to shape sentiment in financial markets (see charts 1 and 2). But we illustrate too, that notwithstanding US resilience, latest forward looking business surveys suggest that global growth is losing momentum. Domestic policy and politics, however, have also been important in recent days with the new UK labour government’s first budget dominating the headlines (chart 4). Some uncertainty has additionally crept into Japan’s political scene and generated some financial market consequences (chart 5). Finally, and looking ahead to next week, US politics has continued to dominate the global headlines and may well be a key driver of economic and financial market outcomes in the period immediately ahead (chart 6).

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3LgxPbpC2008MeaTo1jjnm?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Data, Policy and Politics

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

large_241106A1.jpg

medium_241106A1.jpg

small_241106A1.jpg

thumbnail_241106A1.jpg

241106A1.jpg

large_241106B1.jpg

medium_241106B1.jpg

small_241106B1.jpg

thumbnail_241106B1.jpg

241106B1.jpg

Mortgage loan applications dropped 10.8% (+15.4% y/y) in the week ended November 1st after easing 0.1% (+32.6% y/y) in the week ended October 25, making it the sixth consecutive weekly decline. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 5.1% (+1.4% y/y) in the week ended November 1st after rising 5.0% (+10.1% y/y) in the week ended October 25, while applications to refinance an existing mortgage plummeted 18.5% (47.9% y/y) following a drop of 6.3% (+84.4% y/y) in the prior week. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.01% in the week ended November 1st, up 8 bps from the 6.93% rate in the week ended October 25, and up 72 bps from the recent low of 6.29% reached on the week ended September 20. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.35% in the latest week, down 11 bps from the 6.46% rate in the October 25 week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans rose 26 bps to 7.17% in the week ended November 1st from 6.91% in the October 25 week, while the rate on 5-year ARM loans fell 5 bps to 6.36% in the latest week from 6.41% in the prior week.

The share of loan applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 39.9% in the week ended November 1st, down from 43.1% in the week ended October 25. The share of applications for ARMs was 7.0% in the latest week, up from 6.4% in the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan application was $386,700 in the week ended November 1st, up 0.3% w/w from $385,600 in the week ended October 25. The average size of a loan to purchase a house fell 0.4% w/w to $445,500 in the November 1st week from $447,200 in the October 25 week. The average size of a loan to refinance dropped 2.0% w/w to $298,200 in the November 1st week from $304,200 in the October 25 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Loan applications to purchase and to refinance a house fell in the latest week.
- The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continued to rise in the latest week.
- Average loan size rose slightly.

U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Dropped in the November 1 Week

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

241106E.jpg

In October, only six reporters saw their composite PMI measures weaken compared to September. Two of those were large EMU economies, France and Spain. But in the EMU, there still was improvement compared to September. The U.S, U.K., and EMU average has the same reading value as in September. The overall average improved in October to 51.9 from 51.4 in September. The median overall reading also improved to 51.8 from 50.0. Still, there is a net decline for the overall average and median compared to August values. Some improvement month-to-month but not much overall: a one-month improvement, a two-month decline.

Sequentially, looking at average levels, over three months, six months and 12 months, there is little volatility in these readings. The average over three months is slightly stronger than the 12-month average while the median is slightly weaker over three months compared to 12-months.

The queue percentile standings tell a story of ongoing weakness. The standing of the average is at the 49.2 percentile, nearly on top of its four and one half year average. The median value is at its 48.3 percentile. Again, these two measures are below their respective multi-month medians but are also quite near to those medians. The BRIC countries (I exclude Russia so its actually a reading for the BICs) average is at a 69% standing.

There are 13 of 25 reporting jurisdictions that have a queue standing below their medians (below 50%). Among the 12 reporters whose standings are above 50%, the average standing is 64.1%. Among those below 50% the average standing is 35.4%. Interestingly, the performing economies have about 14 percentage points above their median while those that were not performing average about 14 percentage points below their medians.

241106.jpg

The ‘Haves’ include the U.S., Italy Spain, Ireland, Italy, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Ghana, Egypt, and Kenya. These are the countries with queue standings above their 50% mark. The ‘Have Nots’ include the EMU, Germany, France, the U.K., Sweden, Russia, Australia, the UAE, Japan, China, Zambia, Qatar, and Nigeria.

These two groups offer an interesting look at the bifurcation in global economics. The Big 4 EMU economies are split, but the largest two EMU economies are below 50% in ranking, helping to drag the EMU region below its 50% mark. A number of developed economics are on the underperforming list. The global economy remains a mixture of trends, but the average rank is close to 50%, its historic (4.5 year) mid-point. The economy, essentially, ‘is’ where it has been. There is little change signaled here.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Dropped in the November 1 Week

Recent Commentaries

Composite PMIs from S&P Improve

U.S. ISM Services PMI Improves in October; Prices Ease

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in September; the Largest Since April ’22

U.S. Energy Prices Decline in Latest Week

OECD LEIs Global Expansion Still Broadly Underway

Economic Letter From Asia: Election Uncertainty

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints