Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

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Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

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Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Tom Moeller

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The Housing Market Index, compiled by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo, rose 7.0% (35.3% y/y) in November to 46 after rising 4.9% in October. It has increased from a low of 34 twelve months earlier but remained below the break-even point of 50, where it’s been since April. The index stands below a July 2023 high of 56 and a November 2020 peak of 90.

The rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.79% in the first two weeks of November versus 6.43% in October. It remained below the high of 7.79% in the last week of October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

The single-family sales measure rose 4.3% (22.5% y/y) to 49 this month from 47 in October. It was the highest reading since May. The prospective sales index in six months rose 12.3% (64.1% y/y) to 64 from 57 in October. It was the highest level since April 2022. The traffic of prospective buyers’ index improved 10.3% (52.4% y/y) to 32 in November. It was the highest level since April, up from a low of 25 in August.

Housing performance across the country was mixed in November. The Northeast index rose 13.5% (11.3% y/y) to 59 from 52. It was the highest level since June. The index for the Midwest improved 14.0% (58.1% y/y) to 49 from 43 in October. Moving lower, the index in the South fell 2.3% (+20.0 y/y) to 42 and remained below the recent high of high of 52 in March. The index in the West declined 11.4% (+39.3% y/y) to 39 from 44 in October. The index hit a low of 28 in November of last year.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.



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- Overall reading is highest since April.
- Each component improves.
- Regional indexes are mixed.


U.S. Home Builders Index Improves in November

Robert Brusca

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The EMU trade surplus rose in September to €13.5b from €10.8b in August.   However, the average surplus size has been shrinking as the 12-month average is €14.9b, the 6-Mo average is €13.9b, and the 3-Mo average is €12.4bl.  The September surplus has risen above its 3-month average but does not seem to be part of a trend.

The table chronicles the gradual erosion in the trade surplus on manufacturing trade from 12-mo to 6-mo to 3-mo.  On the same timeline the deficits on non-manufacturing trade in EMU has become only slightly smaller partly offsetting the effect of the shrinking manufacturing surpluses on the overall trade picture.  

Export trade trends for total trade as well as for Manufacturing and nonmanufacturing viewed separately show no clear trend on the 12-Mo to 6-Mo to 3-Mo timeline. 

Import trends show overall acceleration that is supported by both accelerating manufacturing imports and non-manufacturing imports. 

The Euro-Area trade data are for net flows in and out of the whole area with intra-regional trade netted out. The EMU area is showing an acceleration in imports that suggests a strengthening in demand. However, the area’s exports are not picking up in step. These trends are not borne out in the month-to-month changes but are fully reflected in the sequential averages. 

However, it is too soon to view Europe as in recovery or out of the woods based on some strength in imports. While the sequence of import growth rates improves steadily over shorter periods, the more reliable year-on-year rate of growth for imports still register declines for overall imports driven by more extreme weakness in non-manufacturing imports. 

While exports are not trending to stronger growth, at least export flows appear to be stable with positive growth rates for the most part. Manufacturing exports gain 1.2% over 12-months and rise at a 0.8% annual rate over three-months.  The nominal growth is slow and is indicating only slow decay in real terms 

Country level data are, of course, of a very different quality, since these data are by the reporting country and will include as ‘exports’ goods sent anywhere outside that country’s borders which will include exports within the Euro-Area itself. On this basis German exports and imports are declining and decelerating.  France shows exports steadily accelerating with imports not trending but clearly declining on all horizons.  The UK, a non-EMU/NonEU country, shows exports reviving from a steep negative 12-month growth rate to show strong gains over three months. Meanwhile, UK imports also recover from steep year-on-year declines to post a more neutral result over three-months.  On the export side alone Finland shows exports growing on all horizons while Portugal and Belgium show export growth turning negative over shorter horizons.

On balance, EMU and European trends are mixed. There is some hint of stabilization on the import side, but that trend development is new and not echoed by year-over-year strength. Germany and France, the two largest EMU economies, both show consistently weak imports.  There is precious little good news in the September trade report from EMU. 


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Europe

EMU Trade Surplus Rises

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s letter, we focus on China. The Chinese economy has shown early signs of a pickup in recent weeks, following a series of easing measures. However, these signs do not yet suggest a full-scale economic rebound, and observers remain uncertain about whether the economy will meet its 5% growth target for the year. We also explore China’s latest debt swap program for local governments, which many see as a positive step. Nonetheless, some are underwhelmed by the scale of the RMB 10 trln program, which is small compared to the estimated size of local governments’ "hidden debt". In addition, we address broader structural issues likely to continue as points of contention between China and other major economies, and most notably the US. Issues include China’s persistent current account surplus and concerns about its overcapacity. We examine the potential impacts of this overcapacity, from its detrimental effect on domestic industries in receiving economies to the deflationary pressures from Chinese exports. Additionally, we touch on the financial flows resulting from China’s export revenues. Finally, we end on a more positive note, highlighting China’s progress in its green energy transition, with some forecasters predicting that China will reach peak carbon emissions within the next year or two.

**Recent developments**
The Chinese economy has picked up pace in recent months, following a series of easing measures introduced by authorities. These measures include interest rate cuts, relaxed property restrictions, and, more recently, a debt swap program for local governments. Of particular note is the official manufacturing PMI, which has returned to expansionary territory (Chart 1) for the first time in six months. More broadly, the economic surprises from China have shifted back to more neutral levels, following a period of disappointing results. However, while there are encouraging signs of a turnaround, these developments do not yet point to a full-scale economic rebound.

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Delving deeper into China's debt swap program for local governments, the plan will raise the debt ceiling for special bonds by RMB 6 trln ($830 bln) over the next three years, enabling local governments to refinance the "hidden debt" accumulated through Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs). Additionally, local governments will be allowed to use up to RMB 800 bln ($110 bln) annually for refinancing LGFV debt over the next five years. Nonetheless, local governments in China have already increased bond issuance in recent months (Chart 2). While the new program is viewed as a positive step, many observers remain underwhelmed by its scale. Despite the RMB 10 trln package being significant, it is still far smaller than estimates of the total "hidden debt" carried by local governments. For instance, the IMF estimates China’s LGFV debt at RMB 60.2 trln as of 2023, projecting it will rise to RMB 65.6 trln in 2024. If these estimates are accurate, the debt swap program would address only a small fraction of local governments' overall debt burden.

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**Broader structural topics**
Turning to broader structural issues, China’s current account surplus remains persistent and large (Chart 3), drawing criticism from major economies about the impact of these imbalances on their own economies. While the rebound in outbound tourism by Chinese travelers has helped partially offset China's significant goods trade surplus by contributing to a services deficit, this has not been enough to fully offset the significant goods surplus. The drivers and consequences of China’s economic imbalances are complex. For example, China’s industrial policies in sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs) have drawn criticism from the US and several European countries. These policies are likely to remain a key point of tension in US-China relations, especially with US President-elect Trump’s imminent return to leadership next year. These economies believe that China’s overcapacity and extensive use of state subsidies distort global markets, to the detriment of their domestic industries. However, China argues that there is no overcapacity, and that its comparative advantage in sectors like EVs is the result of market competition, not government intervention.

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Another dimension through which China’s overcapacity is manifesting is in the sharp decline in unit export values, which have been falling for over a year (Chart 4). Key concerns in receiving economies revolve around China's overcapacity in sectors like steel, home appliances, and electric vehicles (EVs). This overcapacity has led to massive exports of cheap goods that far exceed domestic demand in China. While these exports technically contribute to China's GDP growth, they are undermining local producers in receiving economies, who struggle to compete with prices that are unsustainably low. This creates a significant challenge for local industries, potentially driving some out of business. Moreover, the influx of inexpensive Chinese goods can lead to deflationary pressures in receiving economies, as falling export prices push down the overall cost of goods and services.

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China’s persistent current account surplus means its substantial export revenues must be reinvested somewhere. A key channel for this reinvestment is the acquisition of foreign assets, with US long-term securities being a major recipient, particularly US Treasuries (Chart 5). The majority of China’s US holdings are in the form of Treasuries, with US corporate equities constituting a much smaller share. In effect, China has been financing the US trade deficit by purchasing US government debt. Over time, China has become one of the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries, second only to Japan. However, it is important to note that China's holdings of US Treasuries appear to have peaked in the last decade, with its investments in these securities actually declining in recent years.

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**Some bright spots**
We conclude this week’s letter on a more optimistic note, highlighting China’s rapid progress in its green transition over the past decade. China’s swift development and adoption of green technologies have led many forecasters to expect the economy to reach peak carbon emissions within the next year or two. That said, much of China’s emissions profile, with carbon dioxide as the dominant contributor, remains closely tied to energy demand, which drives consumption (Chart 6). This is understandable, as while China’s green energy transition has been impressive, it remains incomplete, with a significant portion of its energy still sourced from coal. As a result, if China’s energy demand increases—driven by factors such as stronger global demand for manufactured goods—overall emissions could rise again, especially if the impact of its ongoing green energy adoption does not fully offset this surge. However, if China’s green energy transition continues to gain momentum and proves sustainable, we could see a decoupling of the relationship between energy consumption and emissions in the future.

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Asia

Economic Letter From Asia: Talking China

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Industrial production in the United Kingdom fell by 1% in September after rising by 1.3% in August and falling by 1.3% in July, continuing a choppy pattern. In September output declined for capital goods, for intermediate goods, and for consumer nondurable goods with consumer durable goods output unchanged on the month. This bevy of declines followed monthly output increases across all sectors in August which followed output declines in all sectors in July. The monthly output trends have had all this stability of a car suspension on a cobblestone road.

Beyond the monthly gyrations sequential output trends show output getting progressively weaker. Manufacturing output falls by 0.7% over 12-months; it declines at a 2.4% annual rate over six-months and then accelerates that decline to a 3.9% annual rate drop over three-months.  However, output does not get sequentially weaker across all of the sectors; it only weakens sequentially for intermediate goods output. However, of the 12-sequential sector calculations (across 4 sectors and three periods) all of the observations are negative except three. The bottom line is that the overall trend shows output declines are becoming steeper, and the sector level observations show that output is broadly declining across sectors.

The September figure ends, data for the third quarter; in that quarter (to date) output managed to increase by 0.8% at an annual rate with increases in all of the sectors except capital goods where output fell in the third quarter at a 1.7% annual rate.

Looking at some key industry details, we see quarter-to-date declines or flat performance at all industries in the table except for food, drink, & tobacco where there's a 1.8% annual rate increase in the third quarter.

The UK remains in a troubled spot and although the Bank of England has started to reduce interest rates, it has done it in an environment where inflation is not entirely behaving and perhaps this is because of the observation that economic growth is so weak and the belief that with growth this week inflation excesses will not be able to persist.  Weak manufacturing is a global phenomenon. The UK does not set itself apart from the countries of the G7 by posting weak industrial results. It is unclear when there will be a turn-around in global manufacturing. The US economy that often leads business cycles is showing some signs of doing better, but its manufacturing data have not turned around partly because its economy has been hit by a significant strike and by a series of hurricanes that have interrupted the good sector of the economy. The outlook remains unclear and marred by ongoing geopolitical tensions with governments staffed by new participants all around.


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United Kingdom

UK Manufacturing Weakens

Carol Stone, CBE

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Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3% in October (-0.3% y/y) following a 0.5% decline in September, which was revised from -0.3%, and a 0.5% increase in August, revised from +0.3%. The October result was equal to the Action Economics Forecast Survey estimate of -0.3%. The Federal Reserve estimates that the strike at Boeing reduced total IP by 0.2% in October after cutting it by 0.3% in September, and the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton reduced the total by 0.1% in October.

Industrial production in manufacturing industries fell 0.5% in October (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.3% decrease in September, revised from -0.4% reported before, but a 0.6% rise in August, revised slightly from 0.5%. The October amount was reduced by a 1.2% decline in durable goods manufacturing which followed a 0.7% decrease in September.  Among major durable goods industries, aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation industries had a 5.8% decline in October, which followed an 8.0% reduction in September. Motor vehicles and parts production fell 3.1% in October and just 0.4% in September.

Output of nondurable goods industries increased 0.1% in both October and September, which followed a modest 0.1% decrease in August. The largest October increase among nondurable goods industries was in petroleum and coal, in which production rose 0.9% after a 1.5% increase in September and 0.9% in August. Output of chemical industries rose 0.6% in October and production of paper increased 0.5%.  Other nondurable goods saw production decreases in October, especially printing and related activities, -2.6%, and plastics and rubber products, -1.0%.

Output in nonmanufacturing industries rose in October, with electric and gas utilities up 0.7% after 0.3% in September and mining output up 0.3% in October following a drop of 1.9% in September.

Capacity utilization across all industries was 77.1% in October, down from 77.4% in September and 77.9% in August.  The Action Economics Forecast Survey had estimated 77.2%. While the actual amount had a moderate reduction, it did yield the lowest utilization rate since 76.6% in April 2021. In the manufacturing sector, utilization was 76.1%, down from 76.6% in September and the lowest since 73.8% in February 2021.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.


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- Total production down 0.3% in October with downward revision to September
- Manufacturing output down 0.5%
- Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing lowest since early 2021



U.S. Industrial Production Down Again with Boeing Strike and Hurricane Effects Continuing

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Total business inventories rose 0.1% (2.2% y/y) in September following three consecutive months of 0.3% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.

Retail inventories rose 0.9% (6.7% y/y) in September after a 0.8% August increase. Monthly Increases have been fairly stable for six months. Motor vehicle inventories increased 2.1% (20.9% y/y) after a 1.2% rise.	General merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.4% gain. Food and beverage store inventories fell 0.5% (+0.6% y/y) following a 1.3% increase. 
Furniture & appliance inventories rose 0.3% (-5.5% y/y) after falling 0.8%. Clothing inventories rose 0.8% (2.5% y/y) after two consecutive 0.9% increases while inventories of building materials rose 0.6% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.

Manufacturing inventories edged 0.2% lower (+0.2% y/y) in September after rising 0.1% in August. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% (+0.3% y/y) in September after increasing 0.2% in both of the prior two months.

Total business sales rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y) in September after a 0.2% decline in August.  Factory shipments fell 0.4% (+0.2% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Wholesale sales rose 0.3% (-0.4% y/y) following a 0.2% increase. Retail sales increased 0.8% (1.7% y/y) following a 0.2% decline.

The inventory/sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.38 and has been roughly stable since late in 2022. The manufacturing I/S ratio held m/m at 1.46 in September, up from 1.45 in July. The wholesale I/S eased to 1.34 but has been moving sideways since the middle of last year. The retail I/S ratio held m/m at 1.33, up sharply from early-2021.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Informa Global Markets forecast is in the **MMSAMER** database.


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- Inventories increase is led by retailers.
- Sales improvement also paced by retailers.
- Inventory/sales ratio is steady.


U.S. Business Inventories and Sales Increase in September

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Total retail sales increased 0.4% (2.8% y/y) during October after a 0.8% September gain, revised from 0.4%. August sales eased 0.1%, revised from a 0.1% rise, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales edged 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) after a 1.0% September rise, revised from 0.5%. August sales less autos were revised to a 0.1% decline from a 0.2% increase. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 1.6% (3.4% y/y) last month after rising a minimally revised 0.2% in September. This compares to a 0.8% gain (4.1 y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 4.9% September increase.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) after rising 1.2% in September, revised from 0.7%. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.

Elsewhere, sales performance was mixed in October. Electronics & appliance store sales jumped 2.3% (-2.3% y/y) after falling 2.9% in September. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y) after rising 1.0%. Sales of nonstore retailers grew 0.3% (7.0% y/y) after a 1.7% rise. General merchandise store purchases improved 0.2% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Within that category, department store sales eased 0.2% (-0.0% y/y) following a 0.4% rise.  Gasoline service station sales edged up 0.1% (-7.1% y/y) after falling 0.9% in September.

Working lower, sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales fell 1.1% (-3.4% y/y) after they moved 0.9% higher in September. Furniture & home furnishing store sales declined 1.3% (+1.5% y/y) after they rose 0.7% in September. 
Miscellaneous store sales, which account for 2.2% of the total, declined 1.6% (+4.0% y/y) after improving 2.2% in September.

In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales declined 1.1% (+1.6% y/y) last month after a 2.3% September rise. It was the first decline in six months. Food & beverage store sales edged 0.1% higher last month and rose 2.7% y/y).

Consumers’ penchant to dine out continued last month. Restaurant & drinking place sales increased 0.7% (4.3% y/y) in October, the seventh consecutive monthly rise.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**

Economic Outlook from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20241114a.htm).

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- September sales increase is doubled.
- Most sales categories’ sales are little changed. 
- Motor vehicle sales surge while gasoline purchases edge higher.


U.S. Retail Sales Rise Moderately in October; Nonauto Sales Gain Minimally

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Prices in the foreign trade sector rose last month. Import prices rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in October following a 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) decline in September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% decline. Export prices rose 0.8% (-0.1% y/y) in October, after a 0.6% (-1.9% y/y) decline in September, revised from -0.7%. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% drop.

Import prices excluding fuels rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) in October, following a 0.2% (2.0% y/y) rise in September. Import prices for fuels & lubricants rose 1.5% (-13.6% y/y), following the drop of 7.5% (-18.2% y/y) in September. Prices for overall industrial supplies and materials rose 1.4% (-1.4% y/y) in October, after a decline of 2.0% (-4.6% y/y) in September. Auto import prices edged up 0.1% (2.3% y/y) last month, following a rise of 0.2% (2.7% y/y) in September. Nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.1% (1.2% y/y) after a similar 0.1% (0.8% y/y) rise in September. Capital goods prices edged higher by 0.1% (0.8% y/y) after a rise of 0.1% (0.4% y/y) the prior month. However, foods, feeds & beverage prices declined 1.6% (+3.9% y/y) in October after 0.1% (+5.2% y/y) decline in September.

The rise in export prices in October was broad-based. Agricultural commodities rose 2.0% (-1.9% y/y) in October, after a 0.9% (-4.8% y/y) rise in September. Nonagricultural product prices rose 0.6% (0.0% y/y) following a decline of 0.8% (-1.5% y/y) in September. Export prices of industrial supplies and materials rose 1.3% (-2.3% y/y) in October after a drop of 1.9% (-5.6% y/y) the prior month.  Motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) in October after being flat (+3.0% y/y) in September. Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) last month after a rise of 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) in September. Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y) after being flat (+1.6% y/y) in September.

Each of these monthly trade price numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Import prices rose in most categories last month and are up y/y.
- Export price increases were broad-based, but still declining y/y.


U.S. Import and Export Prices Rose in October

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Mortgage applications rose 1.7% (11.4% y/y) in the week ended November 15 after a 0.5% rise during the prior week. Applications for loans to purchase a home rose 2.0% (-1.7% y/y) in the latest week, following a 1.9% rise in the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan rose 1.8% (43.1% y/y) last week after a 1.5% decline one week earlier. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to 7.10% in the week ended November 15 from 7.03% one week earlier. It compared to a low of 6.29% in the third week of September and a high of 8.12% in mid-October of last year. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.51% in the latest week from 6.37% in the prior week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans edged up to 7.19% last week from 7.14% in the week prior, while the rate on the 5-year ARM rose to 6.50% from 6.29%. The ARM rates remain below the 7.31% high in the last week of October of last year but above the recent low of 5.93% in the last week of December.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.0% in the week ended November 15 from 39.9% in the prior week. That compared to a high of 39.7% in mid-December. The percentage of applications that were ARMs fell to 5.9% from 6.5%. The recent low of 5.4% was reached in early January.

The average loan size dropped 2.0% (+6.0% y/y) to $371,900 in the week ended November 15 from $379,300 in the previous week. The average size of a purchase loan eased 1.5% (+6.7% y/y) to $430,500 in the latest week from $436,900 in the prior week. The average loan size to refinance a mortgage declined 1.8% (+19.2% y/y) to $287,500 in the week ended November 15 from $292,700 in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both purchase & refinancing loan applications rise.
- Mortgage rates move higher. 
- Average loan size declines.


U.S. Mortgage Applications & Interest Rates Increased Last Week

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UK inflation jumped more than expected in October with the CPI-H rising 0.5% after being flat in September. The CPI-H core measure excluding energy, food, alcohol, & tobacco rose by 0.4% month-to-month after rising 0.1% in September.

Even though this is the UK reporting a bad number after a good number, its good number in September had followed another bad number in August so on balance the trend for the UK is remaining higher than the result that policy seeks.

**Inflation’s trend** - Sequentially headline CPI-H inflation is up by 3.2% over 12 months it's up at a 3.2% pace over six-months and it's up at a 3.6% annual rate over three-months. Those numbers compare to a 2% target for inflation in the UK; the core for the CPI-H that is described above, rises 4.1% over 12-months, rises at a 3.9% annual rate over six-months, and gains 3.7% at an annual rate over three-months. This rate shows some minor disinflation and progress but at a pace that's still terribly high and with the core rate higher than the headline rate on each of these sequential periods. That's disappointing because the core rate tends to be more stuck and it's harder to move.

**Inflation’s breadth** - Diffusion measures the breadth of inflation acceleration. That metric is at 54.5% in October, September, and in August. It tells us that the month-to-month inflation changes have had just a little bit more acceleration than deceleration over these last three months, a period when inflation has been running too hot. Sequentially, if we look at diffusion over 12 months, that diffusion is low with the reading of 18.2%. Over 12 months inflation is accelerating in only about 18% of the categories! But, of course, a year ago headline inflation was 4.7% and core inflation was 5.7% so it's not surprising that there's a broad deceleration from those sorts of numbers. Over six-months we find diffusion is a lot higher but the reading on diffusion is still quite low, showing a tendency for inflation to fall, since the diffusion index is only at 36.4%. Diffusion shows a lot more step down in inflation from six-months to 12-months than what we see in the actual inflation numbers measured either by the headline or the core CPI-H.  The inflation rate over three-months, however, shows that diffusion marks inflation as accelerating again. Three-month diffusion is at 63.6% indicating that inflation is accelerating in nearly two-thirds of the categories over three-months compared to six-months. This is certainly not acceptable with the three-month inflation rate running at 3.6% and with the core slightly hotter.

**Unemployment is low** - During this period, the economy has continued to generate low unemployment rates. The unemployment rate in August is 4.3%. That compares to a 12-month-ago unemployment rate of 4.1% twenty-four months ago it was at 3.8%. There has been only a small rise in the unemployment rate from some extremely low numbers. The claimant rate of unemployment shows a little more up-creep at 4.7% in October that compares to 4.6% in August; it compares to a rate 6 months ago at 4.1%.  The claimant rate is showing slightly more lift but still a relatively moderate rate of unemployment.

**Summing up** - These conditions are going to continue to make policy-making difficult at the Bank of England. Inflation is running hot, and it looks like it's stuck. The economy is performing reasonably well, judging from the state of the labor market. But there's also some evidence of economic weakness, certainly broader macroeconomic data have shown more weakness than just the unemployment rate. Policy in the UK is going to continue to face challenges as 2024 draws to a close.


UK Inflation: Too High Stuck, & Disappointing

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to $3.17 per gallon (-7.2% y/y) in the week ended November 18 from $3.18 per gallon in the prior week. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ended April 22, and its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ended June 11, 2022. The latest measure of on-highway diesel fuel prices was $3.49 per gallon (-17.1% y/y) versus $3.52 per gallon in the prior week. Diesel prices have ranged between $2.37 per gallon in the week ended November 2, 2020 and $5.81 in the week of June 20, 2022.

Crude oil prices declined to $68.06 per barrel (-11.3% y/y) in the week ended November 15 and reversed the prior week’s increase to $71.58 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate prices have fallen from a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. Yesterday, the price was $69.39 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil stood at $72.89 per barrel last week (-11.0% y/y) versus $75.63 in the week prior. Yesterday’s price was $74.32 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose to $1.89 per mmbtu last week (-31.0% y/y) from $1.49 in the prior week. Prices were below a $2.73 high in the second week of June. The price was $2.10 per mmbtu yesterday.

Gasoline demand rose 0.5% y/y in the four weeks ended November 15, compared to a 0.6% y/y rise in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products increased 1.2% y/y in the four weeks ended November 15 after a 1.8% y/y increase in the prior four weeks.

Crude oil input to refineries rose an accelerated 6.1% y/y in the four-week period ended November 15 after a 6.4% y/y increase in the prior four weeks. Input to refinery growth was little-changed y/y from July to September.

Gasoline inventories fell 3.5% y/y in the week ended November 15 after decreasing 4.1% y/y in the week prior. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 14.0% in the week of November 15 after declining 11.6% y/y in the prior week. In contrast, crude oil inventories grew 2.5% y/y in the latest week following a 3.4% y/y increase during the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 22.9 days in the week ended November 8 from 23.8 days in the prior week. Data in the latest week show the lowest gasoline inventories since the first week of November 2021. Crude oil inventories slipped to 26.5 days’ supply in the week of November 8 from 26.6 days in the prior week. These compare to a low of 24.8 days in the week ended September 20, 2024 and a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.


- Gasoline prices slip. Crude oil prices decline but natural gas prices rise.
- Demand for gasoline increases moderately.
- Inventories of gasoline fall but crude oil inventories rise.


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