Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

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Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

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Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Positive US economic data surprises leading to upward adjustment of interest rate expectations

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 258,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended October 5, up 33,000 from the prior week’s 225,000, which was not revised. The October 5 amount was the largest weekly increase since 49,000 in the week ended July 17, 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 230,000 in the October 5 week. Press reports indicate that this latest jump is due to the impact of Hurricane Helene. With the October 5 week amount, the four-week moving average of initial claims was 231,000, up from 224,250 the week before.

In the week ended September 28, the total number unemployment benefit recipients – also known as insured unemployment – was 1.861 million seasonally adjusted, up from 1.819 million the week before. This was the largest increase since the week ended January 20. The four-week moving average of insured unemployment was 1.832 million, up from 1.827 million the prior week.

Also, in the week ended September 28, the insured unemployment rate was still 1.2%. This is the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment; the rate has been at 1.2% continuously since March 11, 2023.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended September 21, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.21%), California (2.03%), Puerto Rico (1.93%), Rhode Island (1.80%) and Washington (1.69%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.22%), North Dakota (0.35%), Florida (0.38%), Kentucky (0.39%) and Virginia and North Carolina (each 0.41%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.47%), Illinois (1.43%), Pennsylvania (1.34%) and Texas (1.05%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Largest weekly increase in initial claims since July 2021.
- Continuing claims up 42,000 in Sept. 28 week, largest since last January.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2%.

U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Jump 33,000 in Week Ended October 5

Robert Brusca

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Manufacturing output in the European Monetary Union (EMU) continues to show countries struggling to make sustained gains. In the table, EMU members are early reporters of IP data. Manufacturing statistics in August show five of those thirteen countries have declining output. In July, six of them showed declines; in June, five showed declines. Slightly more than half of the reporters do show increases on a month-to-month basis. But the margin between the number with output increasing and decreasing is not impressive. The median increase among these members in August shows IP up by 0.2%, in July the median increase was 0.4%, the same as in June. Despite the mixed nature of these statistics, the median on balance shows consistent monthly increases in output in June, July, and August. However, over these same months, the proportion of reporters showing output accelerating is generally disappointing. In June about 54% of the reporters show output accelerating, in July that fell back to 38.5%, in August that proportion improved only slightly to 41.7%. In each of the last two months, fewer than half of the reporters were showing an acceleration in output.

**Sequential data details**
Sequential data that look at these same countries’ annualized output growth over 12 months, six months and three months show more seriously mixed and weak economic conditions. Over three months, seven of the thirteen reporters show declines in output. Over six months, eight reporters show a decline in output, and over 12 months, seven of the reporters show a decline in output. Once again, the split between the number of countries reporting output increases and decreases is only a narrow margin, but on these horizons, there are slightly more countries reporting declines than increases.

**Sequential trends**
Not surprisingly, the sequential data show median output changes with declines. Over 12 months, the median decline rate is -0.7%, over six months it's almost the same, at -0.6%, but over three months the output decline worsens to -4.1%. These are all based on data surveyed at an annual rate. If we look at the underlying trend for output over 12 months, 75% of the reporters show output accelerating, but over six months only 33.3% show output accelerating, and over three months only 45.5% show output accelerating.

The bottom line for manufacturing output in the EMU is that monthly conditions are mixed, and the broader sequential data are showing more weakness and more of a tendency to weakness.

**Quarter-to-date**
The quarter-to-date shows seven monetary union economies with output declining; this is two-months into the third quarter. There is some strength, but the strongest reporter is Ireland where output data are notoriously volatile; still in the quarter-to-date, Irish output is up at a 50% annual rate; output in Finland shows a 14% annual rate increase; Belgium shows about a 13% annual rate increase. Those are encouraging numbers; however, on the negative side, there are double-digit growth rates posted by Luxembourg, Malta, Greece, and Portugal. For the most part, these are small or middle-sized European economies, but Europe's largest economy, Germany also shows a quarter-to-date decline in output at a 7% annual rate, with Italy, the 3rd largest economy, showing a 6.7% decline in output at an annual rate. Spain in the EMU’s 4th largest economy; it shows output declining at a 7.5% annual rate. Among the big four European economies, only France with output up at a 1.6% annual rate has an increase in the quarter-to-date.

**IP growth is undernourished**
Growth rates for industrial production are generally below par with the average growth rate; on data back to 2006 at the average percentile rank standing for output growth across these countries is 39.5%. That compares to a median ranking at a 42-percentile standing. Both these calculations show that the average or median growth rate for these 13 countries is weak. The representative growth rate for this group is below the countries’ respective medians for the period. In August, only Belgium, Malta, Ireland, and Greece have percentile standings for their growth rates year-over-year that are in excess of the ranking of 50% putting them above their historic medians. By comparison, the BIG-4 economies in the monetary union show growth rates that rank much weaker in their historic profiles. Listed by the relative size of their economies, Germany has a growth rate with a 20.5 percentile standing, France has a growth rate with a 43.3 percentile standing, Italy has a growth rate with a 15.6 percentile standing and Spain has a growth rate with a 25.4 percentile standing. The BIG-4 economies are relatively much weaker than the rest of the monetary union.

**Momentum**
In terms of momentum, the large economies are split with Germany showing an acceleration in output culminating in a growth rate of 7.9% at an annual rate over three months. France shows the same tendency with weak growth rates over six months and 12 months progressing to a 10.4% annual rate of growth over three months. Italy, however, shows slippage with growth rates that are negative on all horizons and with the largest negative growth rate at -7.7% over three months. Spain also shows a progression towards weakness. Spain's progression is severe with output falling 3.7% over 12 months, falling at a 19.4% annual rate over six months and plunging at a 27.1% annual rate over three months.

Conditions in the monetary union remain mixed with a clear tilt toward weakness and with countries generally showing manufacturing sectors that are producing weaker than average results compared to historic performance.

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Europe

IP Struggles in EMU

Tom Moeller

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Wholesale trade inventories increased 0.1% (0.6% y/y) during August after an unrevised 0.2% July increase and an unchanged level in June. The increase compared to a 0.2% rise expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey and compared to a 0.1% gain in the advance report issued two weeks ago.

Durable goods inventories rose 0.3% in August (2.8% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in July. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, rose 0.5% (11.3% y/y) while motor vehicles & parts, the second largest grouping, edged 0.1% higher (9.6% y/y). Furniture inventories rose 0.3% (-4.0% y/y) while electrical equipment inventories declined 0.3% (-3.1% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods slipped 0.1% (-3.0% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Petroleum inventories led the decline and fell 1.7% (-12.8% y/y). Drug inventories, which make up a quarter of nondurable inventories, eased 0.2% (+9.4% y/y). Grocery inventories, the second largest category, rose 0.3% (-2.3% y/y). Apparel inventories rose 0.7% (-12.8% y/y) and chemical inventories rose 0.3% (-6.4% y/y).

Sales at the wholesale level slipped 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) in August after an unrevised 1.1% July increase and an unrevised 0.3% June weakening. A 0.4% August rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Durable goods sales increased 0.9% in August (4.3% y/y), the same as in July. Sales of electrical equipment & electronic goods, the largest sector, rose 2.3% (15.6% y/y), after a 1.2% gain. Professional and commercial equipment sales, which includes computers, rose 0.6% (4.4% y/y), while vehicle sales rose 1.3% (5.0% y/y). Sales of machinery rose 1.4% (0.5% y/y). Nondurable product sales weakened 0.9% (-1.7% y/y) after rising 1.4% in July. Petroleum product sales tumbled 3.1% (-10.0% y/y). Drug store sales, the largest category, eased 0.2% (+6.6% y/y), while grocery store sales gained 0.2% (1.9% y/y). Sales of apparel improved 0.4% (5.4% y/y). Paper sales edged 0.1% higher (0.2% y/y).

The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level held steady at 1.35 in August and has been moving sideways for the last year.

The wholesale I/S ratio for durable goods fell to 1.78. The machinery ratio declined to 3.05 while motor vehicles eased to 1.87. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods rose to 0.95 but remained down from 1.04 early last year. The petroleum industry I/S ratio held steady at 0.32, and the drug industry ratio held at 1.02. Apparel's I/S ratio of 2.15 remained below its 2.60 level one year earlier.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are from the **AS1REPNA** database.

The minutes to the latest **FOMC** meeting can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240918.pdf).

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- Inventories continue on trend of moderate accumulation.
- Sales increase paced by durable goods.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio continues sideways movement.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Edge Higher in August While Sales Slip

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage loan applications dropped 5.1% (+54.8% y/y) in the week ended October 4, after a decline of 1.3% (+64.0% y/y) in the week ended September 27. Applications for loans to purchase a house eased 0.1% (+8.5% y/y) in the week ended October 4, after a 0.7% (+9.3% y/y) rise in the prior week, while applications to refinance an existing mortgage fell 9.3% (+158.5% y/y) following a decline of 2.9% (+185.9% y/y) in the September 27 week. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.54% in the week ended October 4, up 22 bps from 6.32% in the September 27 week. A recent high of 6.59% was reached in the week ended August 30 but remains well below the 8.12% rate of the week of October 20, 2023. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.88% in the October 4 week, up 21 bps from the 5.67% rate in the September 27 week, and the 5.60% during the two prior weeks; those 5.60% rates were the lowest since 5.52% in the September 9, 2022 week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans rose 17 bps to 6.78% in the October 4 week, up from 6.61% in the week ended September 27, and the rate on 5-year ARM loans rose 21 bps to 6.28% in the latest week from 6.07%.

The share of loan applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 52.4% in the week ended October 4, down from 54.9% in the September 27 week. The share of applications for ARMs was 5.9% in the latest week, up marginally from 5.8% in the September 27 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan application was $402,900 in the week ended October 4, down 1.4% w/w from $408,600 in the September 27 week. The average size of a loan to purchase a house rose 1.1% to $452,600 in the October 4 week, from $447,800 the week before. The average size of a loan to refinance fell 5.0% to $357,600 in the October 4 week from $376,300 in the September 27 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Loan applications to purchase a house dropped in the latest week.
- Interest rates on all loans rose in the latest week.
- Average loan size declined, while the size of loans to purchase rose modestly.

U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall in the October 4 Week

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Japan's economy watchers index took a step back in September after rising in August. The step back takes the September level down to just a few ticks above its value in July. The future index for the economy watchers survey also edged lower, although not as definitively as the current index; it fell to 49.7 in September from 50.3 in August, still above its July value by more than a point. Ranked on data back to 2002, the current economy watchers index has a queue standing in its 53rd percentile, putting it just slightly above its median for that period. The median on ranked data occurs at a ranking of 50%. The future index is slightly stronger with a ranking on the same timeline at about its 59th percentile.

**Performance overview**
Both the current and the future indexes show widespread declines in diffusion values in September compared to August. In the current index, only the rating for eating and drinking establishments shows improvement in September; for the future index there are increases in the services index and in the reading for overall employment. Both the current and the future indexes are below the 50 threshold, which on the diffusion index implies a decline in activity. Looking at components, the current index has only one value - that for eating and drinking establishments - above 50 and has a reading for nonmanufacturing establishments exactly at 50. For the future index, the services reading has a diffusion value above 50 along with employment index and eating and drinking establishments; the reading for manufacturers is at 50.1, barely above 50.

**Changes in index values; momentum**
Looking at changes in the current and future indexes over three months, six months and 12 months, both surveys show improvements over three months preceded by net declines over six months and over 12 months. The current index shows a continuous decline over three months, six months and 12 months for the retail sector, as well as for services. In contrast, it shows steady improvements over three months, six months and 12 months in manufacturing. The future index does not show any steady stream of sequential deterioration; however, it shows steady improvement with gains on all three horizons for services, for manufacturing firms, and for employment conditions.

**Reading level evaluations**
**Current-** The queue percentile readings calculated on data back to 2002 show the current index at a standing of 53 percentile, above its historic median; however, there are below median readings in retailing and services and for employment - with employment having a particularly worrisome, weak standing in its 29th percentile. That means that the employment reading has been weaker than this, only about 29% of the time. In terms of strong standings, only eating and drinking establishments have a standing above the 80th percentile with an 87.7 percentile standing.

**Future-** By comparison, the future index has a stronger headline standing at 58.9 percentile and has two component readings with standings in their 80th percentiles for eating and drinking establishments and for services. The future index has two relatively weak readings that are below their 50th percentile mark; those are for housing and for employment. The housing standing is in its 34th percentile, a relatively weak standing; employment doesn't do much better with a standing at the 43.9 percentile.

**A difficult employment scenario**
Employment scores out as weak in both the current and in the future standings although the future metrics show that employment has been improving over three months, six months and 12 months; in the current survey, employment only improves on balance over three months. Moreover, in the current survey the employment diffusion index falls by nearly a point month-to-month, while in the future survey the employment reading gains by nearly a point.

**Summing up**
The economy watchers index shows a relatively broad weakening for conditions in September. While the economy watcher indexes continue to log levels above their historic medians, both the future and the current standings are showing some degree of decline in activity in September. Manufacturing tends to be a bellwether industry for Japan; it shows consistent improvement over 12 months, six months and three months in the current survey as well as in the future survey And manufacturing has above-median standings in both surveys although the standings are particularly strong; on the future reading has a diffusion value above 50. Because of the declines in September, we have to mark the survey overall as disappointing; however, there are some positive aspects in the report, particularly for the manufacturing sector.

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Japan

Japan’s Economy Watchers Index Takes a Step Back

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed in August to $70.4 billion from $78.9 billion in July, revised from $78.8, and $73.0 billion in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a deficit of $70.6 billion in August. Exports rose 2.0% (5.1% y/y) in August following a 0.5% increase in July. Imports declined 0.9% (+7.6% y/y) following a 2.1% rise in July.

The goods deficit narrowed to $94.9 billion in August from $103.2 billion in July. This was the smallest goods deficit since March. Total goods exports increased 2.5% (4.0% y/y) after a 0.4% gain in July. Exports of capital goods surged 3.1% (13.0% y/y). Auto exports strengthened 6.2% (-7.2% y/y) and exports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos increased 4.7% (2.8% y/). Exports of “other” goods rose 7.4% (18.0% y/y). Exports of foods, feeds and beverages eased 0.8% (+4.6% y/y).

Total goods imports declined 1.4% (+7.2% y/y) in August following a 2.5% gain in July. The decline reflected a 6.8% drop (-2.1% y/y) in imports of industrial supplies and a 3.3% decline in auto imports. Capital goods imports were little changed (+18.0% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods imports rose 0.5% (7.5% y/y) while “other” imports	rose 5.9% (7.9% y/y). Imports of foods, feeds & beverages rose 2.5% (7.2% y/y).

The services foreign trade surplus was fairly steady at $24.4 billion in August, down from a March high of $25.0. Services exports increased 0.9% (7.4% y/y) after rising 0.6% in July. Exports of maintenance and repair services rose 6.3% (57.4% y/y) while exported construction services increased 2.1%, also 57.4% y/y. Travel exports rose 2.8% (12.1% y/y). Exported financial services gained 0.8% (5.3% y/y) but transport services exports fell 1.7% (+8.2% y/y).

Imports of services increased 1.1% (9.6% y/y) in August as they did in July. The rise was led by an 8.0% jump (37.1% y/y) in charges for use of intellectual property after they strengthened 10.9% in July. Insurance imports rose 1.5% (11.6% y/y), transport imports fell 2.0% (+11.4% y/y) and construction services imports gained 1.4% (69.0% y/y). Travel imports increased 3.1% (13.2% y/y).

The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value) narrowed to $88.6 billion in August from $97.3 billion in July. This was the smallest deficit in six months. The $93.0 billion average in Q3 was steady with the Q2 average. Net exports subtracted 0.9% from Q2 real GDP growth and 0.6% from Q1 growth.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to $24.7 billion in August from $27.2 billion in July with exports to China rising 9.7% (11.6% y/y) while imports fell 3.8% (+9.7% y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union widened to $19.1 billion in August from $18.4 billion in July while the deficit with Japan narrowed to $4.9 billion from $5.4 billion in July.

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Trade deficit stands at five-month low due to shrinking goods deficit.
- Services surplus is little changed.
- Exports increase, but imports decline.

U.S. International Trade Deficit Narrows in August

Winnie Tapasanun

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 91.5 in September, the fifth m/m rise in six months, following a 2.5-point drop to 91.2 in August, according to the September 2024 Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. The index was up from its recent low of 88.5 in March, 90.8 in September 2023, and a low of 89.0 in April 2023; nevertheless, having been below the 50-year average of 98 for the 33rd straight month and a high of 102.5 in June 2021. Five of the 10 index components rose, three fell, and two were unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index jumped to 103 in September, the highest level on record, after a two-point increase to 92 in August; it was well above its recent low of 65 in November 2023, 79 in September 2023, and a low of 55 in June 2022.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months was less negative in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve rose to -12% in September, the fourth m/m rise in five months, after a six-point decline to -13% in August; it was significantly up from a record-low -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales rebounded to a net -9% in September following a nine-point drop to -18% in August, indicating continued pessimism but at a less severe pace. The latest reading was up from a low of -21% in May 2023 and a low of -29% in July 2022. A net -17% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down from -16% reported in August and July and registering the lowest reading since November 2023. The latest reading was also down from the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to make capital outlays fell to 19% in September from 24% in August, down from its recent low of 20% in March and registering the same lowest reading as in April 2023; also below a high of 27% in July 2023 and a high of 31% in October 2021. Plans to expand the business registered at 4% in September and August following a one-point increase to 5% in July. These figures, while slightly up from a low of 2% in March 2023, were below a high of 11% in December 2021 and a high of 15% in June 2021. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions registered at -8% in September and August after holding at -7% for three consecutive months; the latest number was below its recent high of -6% in February, a high of -4% in May 2022, and a high of -3% in November 2021.

On the labor front, labor markets remained tight but eased somewhat. Fifty-two percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in September, down from 56% in August. These numbers were below a high of 57% in September 2023, a high of 61% in May 2022, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 15% planned to increase employment in September, slightly up from 13% in August, but it was down from its recent high of 18% in November 2023, a high of 26% in May 2022, and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 34% reported positions not able to be filled in September, down from 40% in August and registering the lowest since January 2021. These figures, still historically high, remained below a high of 51% in May 2022. Overall earnings trends increased to -34% in September, still a poor reading, following a seven-point decline to -37% in August (lowest since March 2010); these numbers were below a high of -18% in March 2023.

On the pricing front, inflation pressures, while generally trending down, remained at an inflationary level. The net percent raising their average selling prices rose to 22% in September after a two-point decline to 20% in August; these numbers, however, were modestly down from 29% in September 2023 and well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices held at 25% in September and August following a two-point decline to 24% in July; these figures were well below a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation, while still relatively high, eased somewhat in the September survey. A net 32% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, slightly down from 33% reported in the August and July surveys and posting the lowest reading since April 2021. It was also down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 23% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 20% reported in August and registering the highest reading since January; nevertheless, having remained below a high of 30% in November 2023 and a high of 32% in October 2022.

Inflation continued to be an issue facing small businesses, as reported by 23% of NFIB members in September as the single most important problem. It was down from 24% in August and a peak of 37% in July 2022. The quality of labor was the second important concern with 17% in September, down from 21% in August. Other concerns (in September vs. August) included taxes (14% vs. 13%), the cost of labor (9% vs. 9%), and government requirements (9% vs. 8%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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-  September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 0.3 pts. to 91.5.
-  Uncertainty Index up 11 pts. to record high.
- Business conditions in the next six months up slightly but still in negative territory (-12%).
- Expected real sales up 9 pts. to -9%, still indicating pessimism.
- Inflation (23%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (17%).

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rebounds in September

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to $3.26 per gallon (-14.5% y/y) in the week ended October 7 after falling to $3.30 per gallon in the prior week. Prices were below the late-April high of $3.79 per gallon and at the lowest level since the first week of February. They also stood well below the all-time high of $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Prices are increased, however, versus the low of $3.18 per gallon in the third week of December 2023. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel edged higher to $3.58 per gallon (-20.3% y/y) from $3.54 per gallon. These prices reached a high of $4.63 per gallon in the third week of September of last year.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $71.47 per barrel (-16.4% y/y) in the week ended October 4 after falling to $69.95 per barrel in the prior week. Prices were lower than the $91.45 high in the last week of September 2023. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged to $77.14 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil edged up to $75.88 per barrel (-16.0% y/y) in the week ended October 4 after easing to $74.07 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price jumped to $81.74 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose to an average $2.67/mmbtu (-8.2% y/y) in the week ended October 4 from $2.56 in the prior week. Prices recently touched a high of $2.73/ mmbtu in the second week of June and they remained well above their low of $1.40/mmbtu in the second week of March. Prices reached a high of $9.56/mmbtu averaged in the last week of August 2022. Yesterday, the price of natural gas moved lower to $2.51/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand increased 4.9% y/y in the four weeks ended September 207 after improving 2.1% in the prior four weeks. This compares to a high of 4.2% y/y growth at the end of July. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.0% y/y in the last four weeks after falling 1.4% y/y in the previous period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.8% y/y in the four weeks ended September 27 after a 1.1% y/y increase during the previous four-week period.

Gasoline inventories fell 2.5% y/y in the week of September 27 after edging down 0.2% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 10.8% y/y after declining 13.7% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 4.5% y/y in the week of September 27 after increasing 3.6% y/y in the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories stood at 25.3 days in the week ended September 27 compared to 24.9 days one week earlier. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories rose to 25.5 days in the week of September 27. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U. S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **USENERGY** databases.

- Gasoline prices fall to lowest level since February.
- Crude oil costs move higher.
- Natural gas prices continue to rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week 

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The General Business Conditions Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York declined to -11.9 in October after surging to 11.5 in September. The decline brought it to the lowest level since a May level of -15.6. A reading of 3.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The percentage of respondents reporting an improvement in business conditions fell to 26.6% from 32.7% in September while the percentage reporting a decline in activity rose to 38.5% from 21.2% last month. The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity. The survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 9.

Haver Analytics calculates a composite index, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. That index declined to 48.1 in October from 52.0 in September. A level of 50 is the breakeven point between expansion and contraction. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes; new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each).

The new orders index fell to -10.2 in October from 9.4 in September. A lessened 29.8% of respondents reported higher orders while an increased 40% reported order declines. The shipments index fell to -2.7 from 17.9. The unfilled orders index dropped to -2.2 from 2.1 in September. Delivery times lengthened as the index fell to -3.2 from -1.1. Inventories weakened this month to -7.5 from a break-even level of zero in September.

Labor market conditions were greatly improved in October. The employment index of 4.1 compared to -5.7 in September. It was the first month above the break-even level of 50 in twelve months. An increased 12.7% of respondents reported increases in employment while a lessened 8.6% reported lower employment. The hours-worked index increased to 4.7 after rising to 2.9 in September. It was only the second positive reading following ten months where it stood below zero.

Inflation pressures increased this month. The prices paid index rose to 29.0 after easing to 23.2 in September and falling to 23.4 in August. A higher 33.3% of respondents were paying higher input prices, while a greatly reduced 4.3% reported paying lower input prices. The prices received index also rose to 10.8 from 7.4 in September. It was the highest level since May as 17.2% of respondents reported an increase in prices while 6.5% reported price declines.

Companies grew more optimistic about the outlook in October. The index for future business conditions of 38.7 this month compared to 30.6 in September, and was the highest level since October 2021. The outlook for shipments, unfilled orders, vendor performance and employment improved, but new orders eased. The future prices paid index slipped just slightly from its highest level since February 2023, but capital spending plans rebounded sharply.

The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from the components. The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory sector indicator declines to five-month low.
- New orders & shipments lead decline, while employment increases.
- Prices paid & received continue to strengthen.

U.S. Empire State Factory Index Returns to Negative Territory in October

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 3.2% (3.7% y/y) during the four weeks ended October 11, 2024, the same as it did four weeks earlier.

Prices in the Metals group led the rise and increased 8.0% (15.8% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Zinc prices gained 13.4% (25.5% y/y) in four weeks and aluminum prices rose 10.2% (18.2% y/y). Copper scrap prices rose 7.1% in four weeks (21.5% y/y), while tin prices gained 6.7% (35.6% y/y) in four weeks. Also, lead prices firmed 5.8% in four weeks (-4.2% y/y) and steel scrap prices rose 5.9% (6.0% y/y) over four weeks.

Crude Oil & Benzene group prices increased 2.7% (-9.1% y/y) in the latest four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 10.6	% in four weeks to $74.85 per barrel, but was 11.2% lower y/y. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, fell 5.6% (-23.1% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 2.8% (4.6% y/y) in the latest four-week period.

Textile group prices rose 1.3% (-1.3% y/y) over the same four week period. Cotton prices rose 6.3% (-18.0% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of burlap posted a 2.6% rise (18.3% y/y) during the last four weeks.

Prices in the Miscellaneous group improved 0.9% during the last four weeks and were up 4.5% y/y. The cost of natural rubber rose 5.0% in four weeks and jumped 81.0% y/y. Plywood prices improved 3.2% over the last four weeks (5.1% y/y).

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

**Thoughts on the Economy and Policy Rules at the Federal Open Market Committee** by Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20241014a.htm).

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- Metals prices surge for second consecutive period.	
- Increasing crude oil costs push energy price index higher.
- Textile prices continue to increase.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Broadly in Latest Four Weeks

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s letter, we examine the reactions of China’s equity markets following the Golden Week holidays, highlighting investors' disappointment over the latest stimulus announcements (see Chart 1). Despite this, forecasters have slightly raised their growth expectations for China (Chart 2), although pessimism lingers regarding the economy's ability to meet its 5% growth target for the year. Turning to monetary policy developments across Asia, several easing cycles have now been initiated across the region. For instance, New Zealand has begun its easing cycle with a 50 bps rate cut, driven by cooling inflation and weak domestic growth (Chart 3). In India, while the central bank kept policy rates unchanged, it made a significant move by officially shifting its stance to neutral, indicating a closer alignment with an easing approach. This comes amid a robust growth outlook, although inflation risks remain (Chart 4). In South Korea, the central bank has also commenced easing with a 25 bps cut, acknowledging cooling inflation and slower household debt growth (Chart 5), while signalling potential for further reductions ahead. Looking to the week ahead, we anticipate more rate decisions across the region, with additional easing moves seen likely (Chart 6).

**Post-Golden Week China**
Chinese equity markets resumed trading last week after the Golden Week holidays, showing a marked repricing of market expectations (Chart 1). Initial optimism over central bank easing measures faced a reality check following government announcements. Specifically, China’s National Development and Reform Commission outlined initiatives for October, including 200 billion yuan ($28.3 billion) in advance budget spending. However, despite the significance of these measures, a larger-scale stimulus package that many had anticipated was not announced. After initial market disappointment, Financial Minister Lan held a press conference last Saturday, pledging to bolster China’s economy. However, some observers were still underwhelmed by the lack of specific numerical commitments. Looking ahead, China will release its Q3 GDP figures on Friday, which are keenly awaited as indicators of the economy's health. This will be accompanied by a range of monthly data, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, house prices, and unemployment figures. However, insights from these figures on the impact of the recent easing measures are expected to be limited.

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