Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Tom Moeller

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 155,000 (1.4% y/y) during March after increasing 84,000 in February, revised from 77,000, and 186,000 in January. The increase remained below the 221,000 high in October of last year. A 116,000 March rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.6% y/y from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months and compared to 5.0% y/y one year earlier. It remained below a September 2022 high of 7.8% y/y. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.8% y/y while construction sector pay improved 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.3% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.3% y/y while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.4% y/y and trade, transportation & utilities pay rose 4.3% y/y. Information pay rose 4.0% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.5% y/y after 6.8% y/y growth in February and stood below a 16.1% y/y high in April 2022.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 52,000 (0.7% y/y) in March, following no change in February. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 43,000 (1.1% y/y) after increasing 53,000 in February. Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 59,000 (3.6% y/y) last month following a 33,000 February rise.

Goods-producing employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y), after rising 40,000 in February. Factory sector employment rose 21,000 (-0.2% y/y) following a 15,000 rise. The number of construction sector jobs rose 6,000 (3.6% y/y), following a 26,000 February increase. Natural resource & mining jobs fell 3,000 (+1.9% y/y), after a 1,000 decline.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 132,000 (1.4% y/y) last month, following a 43,000 February gain. Professional & business services employment grew 57,000 (0.7% y/y) last month following a 22,000 February increase. Employment in the financial industry rose 38,000 (2.0% y/y) after a 24,000 rise. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 17,000 (2.9% y/y), following a 47,000 February increase. Employment in “other” services rose 11,000 (3.5% y/y) in March, following an 18,000 gain in February. The number of education & health care jobs improved 12,000 (1.8% y/y), after a 25,000 decline during February. Information sector employment rose 3,000 (0.2% y/y) last month after a 12,000 decline. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities fell 6,000 (+0.4% y/y) in January after a 31,000 decline during February.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 89,000 (2.0% y/y) last month, after rising 40,000 in February. Employment in the Midwest rose 81,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 62,000 gain in February. In the South, employment increased 27,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain, but in the West, employment fell 41,000 (+0.6% y/y) in March, after a 32,000 February decline.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is strong in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” and “job changers” moderates.
- Small business employment recovers; hiring at medium-sized firms slows.

U.S. ADP Payroll Gain Rebounds in March; Pay Growth Eases

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a slightly more-than-expected 0.6% m/m (2.5% y/y) in February after a 1.8% gain in January and a 0.6% decline in December, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 0.5% m/m February increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The February reading was the second successive monthly rise after m/m decreases in four of the prior five months. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts fell 5.0% in February following a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 0.5% (2.0% y/y) after a 1.9% January rebound. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector grew 0.4% (1.8% y/y), the sixth consecutive m/m gain, on top of a 0.3% January increase.

Durable goods orders rose 1.0% (3.4% y/y) in February after a 3.4% rebound in January (in line with a 0.9% m/m rise in the advance report on March 26). The February rise reflected m/m orders increases of 1.9% (5.1% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 1.5% (6.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.2% (4.2% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.6% (0.4% y/y) in machinery, and 0.4% (-0.3% y/y) in furniture & related products. Meanwhile, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products were virtually unchanged m/m (4.6% y/y) in February following a 1.8% gain in January.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y) in February, the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 0.3% increase in January. The February rise reflected m/m gains of 2.1% (1.0% y/y) in textile mills, 1.9% (1.2% y/y) in leather & allied products, 1.5% (-1.0% y/y) in textile products, 1.4% (-1.8% y/y) in apparel, 0.8% (6.0% y/y) in chemical products, 0.5% (0.1% y/y) in plastics & rubber products, 0.4% (-5.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, and 0.3% (4.0% y/y) in printing. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments fell m/m in February: beverage & tobacco products (-0.6%; +6.7% y/y), paper products (-0.3%; +1.9% y/y), and food products (-0.2%; +2.1% y/y).

Total shipments rose 0.7% (2.6% y/y) in February, the fourth successive m/m rise, after a 0.5% gain in January. Excluding transportation, shipments grew 0.4% (1.6% y/y), up for the sixth consecutive month, on top of a 0.3% January increase. Shipments of durable goods industries advanced 1.2% (3.6% y/y) in February, the third straight m/m gain, after a 0.7% rise in January. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 2.1% (7.9% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.5% (3.9% y/y) in primary metals, 1.2% (3.6% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.8% (3.6% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods, 0.7% (0.1% y/y) in machinery, 0.6% (3.2% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.6% (1.1% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.5% (-1.3% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products. In contrast, these durable goods shipments fell m/m in February: furniture & related products (-0.5%; -0.6% y/y) and wood products (-0.5%; -1.6% y/y).

Unfilled orders increased 0.1% (0.7% y/y) in February, up for the seventh month in eight, after a 0.2% increase in January. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders edged up 0.1% (0.7% y/y) in February for the third successive month. Backlogs of durable goods increased 0.1% (0.7% y/y) in February, reflecting m/m rises of 0.7% (2.3% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components and 0.2% (0.6% y/y) in transportation equipment.

Inventories inched up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in February, the fourth consecutive m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in January. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.4% y/y) in February, the fourth straight m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in February after holding steady in January; nondurable goods inventories rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y), the fourth successive m/m rise.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Manufacturers’ new orders +0.6% (+2.5% y/y) in Feb.; +1.8% (+3.3% y/y) in Jan.
- Durable goods orders (+1.0%), nondurable goods orders (+0.3%), and shipments (+0.7%) all increase m/m.
- Unfilled orders up 0.1%, the seventh m/m rise in eight months.
- Inventories up 0.1%, the fourth straight m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Rise in February for the Second Consecutive Month

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications fell 1.6% (+24.5% y/y) in the week ended March 28, after declining 2.0% (+25.8% y/y) in the week ended March 21, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a home rose 1.5% (8.7% y/y) in the latest week, following a rise of 0.7% (6.9% y/y) in the prior week. Applications to refinance existing mortgages declined 5.6% (+56.6% y/y) in the week ended March 28, after a decline of 5.3% (+63.2% y/y) in the week ended March 21.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan remained unchanged at 6.88% in the week ended March 28 from the prior week. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan declined 6bps to 6.19% in the week ended March 28 from 6.25% in the March 21 week. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan edged down 2bps to 6.90% in the latest week from 6.92% in the week ended March 21, while the rate on a 5-year ARM rose 16bps to 6.26% in the latest week from 6.10% in the week ended March 21.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage fell to 38.6% in the week ended March 28 from 40.4% in the week ended March 21. That share had reached a low level of 38.7% in the week of February 14. The share of loans that have an adjustable rate rose to 6.5% in the latest week, up from 6.3% in the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged down 0.3% (+0.3% y/y) to $396,600 in the week ended March 28, following a decline of 1.0% (+2.8% y/y) to $397,900 in the week ended March 21. The average size of a loan to purchase a home was $447,500 in the latest week, up 1.1% (-1.2% y/y) from $442,800 the week before. The average size of a loan to refinance an outstanding mortgage declined 4.8% (+19.8% y/y) to $315,700 in the week ended March 28 from $331,700 in the week ended March 21.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase rose, while applications for loans to refinance declined.
- Fixed mortgage rates are range-bound.
- Decline in average loan size continues for the third consecutive week.

Mortgage Applications Fell in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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The median reading for the 18 early reporting manufacturing sectors in the table (17 countries plus the euro area) is lower in March at 48.7 from 49.5 in February. Also, in March the diffusion (breadth) of reporters showing month-to-month improvement fell to 33.3% from 66.7% in February and 61.1% in January. However, diffusion over broader periods (3-mo vs. 6-mo; 6-mo vs. 12-mo and 12-mo vs. 12-mo ago) shows diffusion has been steadily at and above the 60% mark (them as point-to-point diffusion changes). And on those timelines, the median reading for the 12-month average is at 49.8, the 6-month average is at 49.3, and the 3-month average is at 48.7. Despite improving diffusion, the median reading has been slipping, but the slippage has been extremely slow. For the United States, France, Germany and the euro area - as a block - these three, blocs of time show diffusion improving in 10 of the twelve segments, the two deteriorating segments are for comparison with a year ago in the U.S. and comparisons between the 6-month average and the 12-month average for France. All four reporters show improvement in three-months compared to six-months, based on average data. By comparison, the four BRIC countries show only two improvements among the 12 possibilities, and only India shows improvement in three-months compared to six-months.

According to breath, this is ongoing improvement. But median data are not confirming the trend. It’s just another example of how small the current changes are and how the data can show small changes over periods as long as a year, when in reality all we are experiencing are gyrations, and little change in an essentially static environment.

The queue standings (rankings) show only seven of 18 reporters at or above the 50% mark; this is the demarcation line for the median on these ranked data. So, over the last four years data, are arrayed with slightly less than half above and slightly more than half below their respective medians. However, the median reading of these rankings makes it clear that data tilt to the weak side at a 45-percentile standing. On data from January 2021 to date, all March 2025 readings are lower on balance (except India-and that exception is on a small margin, +0.3 points).

In that table, I look at various groups: BRICS, Asia, and a group of the more advanced countries (U.S., U.K., EMU, Canada & Japan); each of them shows very little movement.

However, we have a world with a great deal of change in train, especially changes thrust on Europe by changing U.S. policy to put more of Europe’s own security provision in Europe’s on hands. This is going to ramp up spending and should cause economies to heat up in the year ahead or more. Such a change could spur PMI values, economic growth, stimulate the inflation environment, and alter monetary policy itself. There is change in progress that we can see coming but has not been reflected in this month’s report.

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Global MFG PMIs Erode in March

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The light vehicle market continued to improve last month, with sales rising to the highest level in four years. U.S. light vehicle sales rose 10.4% (11.8% y/y) to 17.76 million units (SAAR) in March after rising 3.8% to 16.09 million in February. The rise in March vehicle sales accompanied a 1.8% y/y rise in real disposable income through February, which compared to 2.0% growth in 2024.

Sales improvement was broad-based last month. Light truck sales rose 12.1% (13.2% y/y) during March to 14.46 million units (SAAR), after increasing 3.3% in February. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks surged 12.4% (13.1% y/y) to 11.05 million units, after rising 3.3% in February. Sales of imported light trucks jumped 10.7% (13.0% y/y) to 3.40 million units, following February’s 3.4% rise.

Trucks’ 81.4% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 80.2% in February and set a new record. The share was 80.3% during all of 2024 and 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also rose last month, by 3.8% (8.2% y/y) to 3.31 million units (SAAR) following a 6.0% February increase. Sales of cars moved to the highest level since July 2021. Purchases of domestically-produced cars rose 3.4% (12.3% y/y) last month to 2.46 million units, after rising 9.2% in February. Sales of imported autos gained 4.9% (-7.6% y/y) to 0.85 million units, following a 2.4% February decrease.

Imports' share of the U.S. light vehicle market eased to 23.9% in March from 24.1% in February. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% before it reached a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 25.7% last month from 25.4% in February. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.5% in March after holding at 23.8% in February.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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Job openings fell 194,000 to 7.568 million in February from an upwardly revised 7.762 million in January (previously 7.740 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The level of openings has been little changed over the past eleven months after having declined rather steadily from a high of 12.134 million in March 2022. The number of openings continues to exceed the number unemployed, but only by 516,000, indicating a relatively balanced labor market. The job openings rate fell to 4.5% in February from 4.7% in January. It remains well below a high of 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings fell 193,000 to 6.667 million in February from 6.860 million in January. The relatively small January decline was led by a 163,000 drop in trade, transportation and utilities openings. Finance openings slid 80,000 and leisure/hospitality openings declined 61,000. By contrast, professional and business services openings increased 134,000. The private sector job openings rate edged down to 4.7% in February from 4.8% in January. It has fluctuated between 4.4% and 5.0% over the past eleven months without a noticeable trend.

Total hiring edged up 25,000 in February to 5.396 million. This was the second increase in the past three months. Still, hiring has fallen 268,000 over the past year. Private hiring rose 46,000 to 5.046 million, its third consecutive monthly increase although it has fallen 231,000 over the past year. The February gain was due mostly to an 82,000 increase in professional and business services hiring. Hiring declined in most other sectors. Government hiring fell 21,000, led by a 15,000 decline in state and local government hiring. The total hiring rate was unchanged at 3.4%, where it has been for four of the past five months. The private hiring rate was also unchanged at 3.7% in February for the fifth consecutive month.

Total job separations edged down 11,000 to 5.261 million in February. They have been little changed over the past eleven months. Quits declined 61,000 to 3.195 million; layoffs rose 116,000 to 1.790 million; other separations fell 67,000 to 275,000. Quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee and are often viewed as an indicator of workers’ willingness to leave jobs for other opportunities. Private quits (-80,000 in February to 2.998 million) have been relatively trendless recently, fluctuating between 2.8 and 3.1 million over the past seven months. By contrast, private layoffs (separations initiated by the employer) have been on a clear, though modest, uptrend since the middle of last year, pointing to a modest cooling in the labor market. They rose 96,000 to 1.692 million in February, led by a 47,000 increase in professional and business services layoffs.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings fell to 7.568 million from 7.762 million in January.
- The job opening rate slid to 4.5% from 4.7%.
- Hiring was little changed in February.
- Layoffs rose to 1.790 million from 1.674 million.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Fell Slightly and Layoffs Rose Slightly in February

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The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector declined to 49.0 during March after easing to 50.3 in February. It remained up from a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 49.8 for March. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Four of the five component indexes weakened last month. The new orders index declined to 45.2 last month from 48.6 in February. It was the lowest level since May 2023. A greatly lessened 19.9% (NSA) of respondents reported higher orders while an increased 23.3% indicated declines. The March production index fell to 48.3 after declining to 50.7 in February. It was the lowest level in four months. A higher 21.0% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while an increased 20.9% reported lower output. The employment index fell to 44.7 in March, its lowest point in six months, from 47.6 in February. A lessened 8.3% (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring while an increased 18.0% indicated fewer hires. The supplier delivery index declined to 53.5 from 54.5 in February. A lessened 13.4% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while an increased 6.4% reported a quickening.

Moving higher, the inventories reading surged to 53.4 last month from 49.9 in February. The reading stands well above its low of 43.2 in October of last year. A greatly increased 21.5% (NSA) of respondents reported higher inventories while a significantly lessened 12.8% reported lower.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, surged to 69.4 (NSA) in March after increasing to 62.4 in February. It was the highest level since June 2022, up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. A greatly increased 46.0% of respondents reported higher prices last month, up from 12.2% in November, while a slightly higher 7.3% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders index fell to 49.6 in March from 51.4 during February. These readings remained above a low 45.2 in January of last year. The imports index weakened to 50.1 from 52.6 in February. It was the lowest reading in three months. The order backlog index dropped to 44.5 (NSA) last month from 46.8 in February. It was the lowest level in four months.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Index indicates factory sector contraction.
- New orders, production & employment readings weaken.
- Prices index jumps to another three-year high.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Declines in March; Prices Strengthen

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The value of construction put in place rose a more-than-expected 0.7% m/m in February after a 0.5% decline in January (-0.2% initially) and a 0.3% increase in December (+0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The February reading was the fourth m/m rise in five months. A 0.3% m/m February rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate rose to 2.9% in February after decelerating to 2.7% in January (the lowest since May 2019). The latest y/y figure was lower than 9.7% in February 2024, having remained below its recent high of 9.8% in January 2024 and a peak of 18.6% in April 2022.

Private construction recovered 0.9% (2.0% y/y) in February, up for the fourth month in five, after a 0.7% decrease in January (-0.2% initially) and a 0.4% rise in December (+0.7% previously). Residential private construction rebounded 1.3% (1.6% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m increase in five months, after a 1.2% decline in January (-0.4% initially). Home improvement building rose 2.0% (8.9% y/y), the first m/m rise since November, following a 3.8% January drop; it was 40.1% of the residential private construction. Single-family building grew 1.0% (-0.1% y/y), the sixth consecutive m/m gain, after a 1.0% January rise; it was 47.4% of the residential private construction. Meanwhile, multi-family building was virtually unchanged m/m (-11.6% y/y) in February following 14 straight m/m decreases; it was 12.5% of the residential private construction. 

Nonresidential private construction rose 0.4% (2.5% y/y) in February, the third m/m rise in four months, following a 0.2% decline in January (0.0% initially) and a 0.5% increase in December (+0.1% previously). The February rise reflected m/m increases in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (4.2%; 14.9% y/y), amusement & recreation (2.6%; 7.3% y/y), commercial (0.9%; -5.0% y/y), educational (0.4%; -0.1% y/y), transportation (0.3%; 10.6% y/y), office (0.2%; 3.7% y/y), manufacturing (0.1%; 4.7% y/y), and utilities (0.1%; 5.0% y/y). In contrast, lodging private construction, the only category with a monthly decline in February, fell 0.4% (-0.2% y/y), the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 0.1% January easing. Meanwhile, communication private construction (-0.03%; +3.6% y/y) and health care private construction (+0.03%; -0.9% y/y) were virtually unchanged m/m in February.

The value of public construction grew 0.2% (6.0% y/y) in February, the seventh m/m gain in eight months, on top of a 0.2% rise in January (+0.1% initially), reflecting a 0.2% rebound (2.5% y/y) in residential public construction and a 0.2% increase (6.1% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The February gain reflected m/m rises in the following nonresidential public constructions. These included commercial (4.1%; 53.1% y/y), conservation & development (2.4%; 8.2% y/y), water supply (1.4%; 15.6% y/y), health care (1.3%; 14.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.3%; 20.4% y/y), and educational (0.3%; 8.4% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.9% of public construction spending, rose 1.2% (0.2% y/y) in February after a 0.8% increase in January, registering the fourth successive m/m rise and the sixth in seven months. To the downside, the following public constructions fell m/m in February: office (-2.8%; +1.3% y/y), utilities (-1.3%; -7.1% y/y), public safety (-1.2%; +4.3% y/y), transportation (-1.2%; +4.1% y/y), and sewage & waste disposal (-1.1%; +11.1% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Construction spending +0.7% m/m (+2.9% y/y) in Feb. vs. -0.5% m/m (+2.7% y/y) in Jan.
- Residential private construction recovers 1.3% m/m, up for the fourth month in five, led by a 2.0% gain in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction rebounds 0.4% m/m, up for the third month in four.
- Public sector construction increases 0.2% m/m, reflecting a 0.2% rise in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.

U.S. Construction Spending Rebounds in February, the Fourth M/M Gain in Five Months

Andrew Cates

**Trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical stress**
Our first chart this week illustrates the sharp escalation in US trade policy uncertainty that has unfolded over the past few months. The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for trade policy has specifically surged to multi-decade highs, reflecting heightened concern about the direction and credibility of US trade actions under the new administration. This jump unfolded ahead of the major policy announcement from the US administration on April 2nd. Simultaneously, the Caldara and Iacoviello Global Geopolitical Risk Index has also moved sharply higher in recent weeks, indicating growing unease over multiple flashpoints, including tensions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and US-China relations. Together, these indicators highlight the growing complexity and fragility of the global economic environment. They also underscore why financial markets are finding it increasingly difficult to anchor expectations—caught between shifting trade alignments and mounting geopolitical stress.

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**US data surprises and stagflation**
Chart 2 below highlights the recent divergence between economic and inflation surprises in the United States. The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index has fallen sharply and into negative territory in recent weeks, reflecting a consistent pattern of weaker-than-expected growth data. At the same time, the Inflation Surprise Index has been climbing, indicating that inflation readings are coming in above consensus expectations. This combination—disappointing growth alongside stubborn price pressures—reflects a stagflation-lite scenario, and one that could now worsen in the immediate months ahead.

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**Consensus expectations for Central Bank policy** 
This next chart illustrates the latest consensus expectations from Blue Chip Financial Forecasters panel for policy rates across major economies over the next 12 months. These were pulled together before this week’s US announcement so may now be a little dated. Still, the consensus had already been pointing firmly toward an easing bias, particularly in the UK, Euro area, and United States. And this reflects growing concern about weakening economic momentum and the need for monetary policy to counteract downside risks. The UK, where rate cuts are most aggressive, is facing one of the sharpest growth slowdowns among developed economies, while the Eurozone’s dovish pivot has been supported by softer-than-expected inflation data, as we discuss below. In contrast, Japan stands out as the only major economy where modest rate hikes are still anticipated, driven by nascent signs of inflation persistence and the Bank of Japan’s desire to normalize policy.

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**The euro area labour market** 
This next chart shows two important indicators of labour market dynamics in the Euro Area: employment expectations (from the EC survey) and posted wage growth based on Indeed job ads (line). Both series have been trending lower, suggesting that the euro area labour market is cooling. The decline in employment expectations signals increasing caution among employers about future hiring plans—likely a response to slower growth, tighter financial conditions and, more recently, US trade policy uncertainty. At the same time, wage growth has eased steadily over the past year, reinforcing the view that second-round inflation pressures from the labour market are subsiding. This softening in labour indicators has given the European Central Bank additional room to begin discussing further interest rate cuts, particularly as headline inflation readings have also surprised to the downside.

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**China’s economy**
Chart 5 below illustrate the Yicai High Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI), which tracks real-time fluctuations in China’s economy based on a range of mobility, transport, and consumption indicators. After several quarters of sluggish activity, the index has recently rebounded to its highest levels in over a year. This upswing suggests a tentative revival in domestic economic momentum, supported by targeted fiscal stimulus, easing credit conditions, and a modest improvement in consumer sentiment. The rebound clearly comes at a critical moment for China, as policymakers seek to offset US tariff policies and persistent weaknesses in the property sector. These imply that the sustainability of this pickup remains uncertain, but they have reinforced the narrative that China is leaning more heavily on proactive fiscal and quasi-fiscal tools to stabilise growth in 2025.

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**World trade**
Our final chart this week combines two leading indicators of world trade: South Korea’s merchandise exports and the Global Real Economic Activity Index in Industrial Commodity Markets. Both series have turned decisively lower in recent months, underscoring some persistent weakness in global goods demand. South Korea, often considered a bellwether for global trade due to its exposure to tech and industrial supply chains, has reported multiple months of year-on-year export declines. At the same time, commodity-linked activity—an important proxy for industrial production and construction globally—has also faltered. The high historical correlation between these two series amplifies the signal that global trade is under stress. And with the US administration unveiling additional trade barriers this week, downside risks to export-dependent economies are becoming much more acute.

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For some further views on the impact on the world economy of recent US tariff policies please see [Liberating the Downside](https://www.haver.com/articles/liberating-the-downside) on our Viewpoints section.

The return of protectionist trade policies under the new US administration had already added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global landscape. And this has now been dramatically amplified following the decision by the US administration to announce a sweeping package of tariffs on a broad range of imports from key trading partners—including the EU, China, and several emerging markets. These measures were more expansive in both scope and scale than markets had anticipated, and they carry the potential for significant global economic disruption—particularly if targeted trading partners respond with retaliatory countermeasures, escalating the risk of a full-scale trade conflict.

The announcement has sent a fresh wave of volatility through financial markets. Equities in export-dependent economies have sold off sharply, while European capital goods manufacturers and global logistics firms saw their valuations marked down in anticipation of disrupted supply chains and rising input costs. Treasury yields have also declined on expectations of weaker investment and slower growth, while emerging market currencies came under pressure amid renewed concerns over capital outflows and global trade fragmentation.

The impact on business sentiment and investment planning could be immediate. Firms with international exposure are likely reassessing capex plans and supply chain configurations, while some have accelerated domestic sourcing strategies in anticipation of longer-term decoupling. Early survey data suggest that capital expenditure intentions, particularly in globally integrated sectors, are already weakening—a signal that could weigh heavily on productivity and future potential output.

Against this backdrop, central banks face a challenging policy recalibration. While disappointing US growth data had already tilted expectations toward monetary easing, the scale of trade disruption now adds an additional layer of urgency (charts 1 and 2). Economic forecasters broadly anticipate that most major central banks will lean further into rate cuts in the coming months to offset downside risks (chart 3). That view has gained further traction in Europe, where softer inflation prints (chart 4) have reinforced expectations of imminent ECB action. Meanwhile, more activist fiscal policies in Europe and China (chart 5) provide some offset to the gloom, though these too now face bigger headwinds in an increasingly fragmented trade landscape.

Ultimately, the burden of adjustment is now falling most heavily on trade-dependent economies (chart 6). With the global system inching closer to bifurcation, the downside risks to growth, investment, and policy coordination are rising sharply. The next few months will test not only the resilience of the global economy but also the credibility of the policy frameworks designed to support it.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/5nPbQBrc5jfHw75RNX7yKI?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

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Charts of the Week: Trade Shocks

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