Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Winnie Tapasanun

251125J17.jpg

251125K17.jpg

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose an expected 0.3% m/m in September following a 0.1% easing in August (unrevised) and a 0.8% rise in July (+0.7% previously), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The September reading was the fourth m/m increase in five months. The year-over-year rate held at 2.7% in September and August after accelerating to 3.2% in July. The latest m/m increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. September PPI figures, compared with September CPI data +0.3% m/m, +3.0% y/y (released on October 24), reinforce the view that U.S. inflationary pressures remain elevated on both producer and consumer sides.

Producer prices excluding food & energy edged up 0.1% (2.6% y/y) in September after a 0.1% downtick in August (unrevised) and a 0.8% gain in July (+0.7% previously). A 0.3% m/m increase had been expected. Another core price measure, producer prices less food, energy & trade services ticked up 0.1% (2.9% y/y), the fifth straight m/m increase, after rises of 0.3% in August (unrevised) and 0.7% in July (+0.6% previously).

The September PPI 0.3% m/m rise was led by a 3.5% jump (3.8% y/y) in energy prices, the third m/m increase in four months, following a 0.4% August decline. The jump in energy prices reflected m/m price rises of 11.8% (1.0% y/y) in gasoline, 9.8% (-1.1% y/y) in natural gas liquids, 5.9% (6.5% y/y) in home heating oil & distillates, and 0.5% (4.7% y/y) in residential electric power. In contrast, prices for residential natural gas (-0.5%; +11.9% y/y) and diesel fuel (-0.2%; +8.2 y/y) fell m/m in September.

Food prices rose 1.1% (4.0% y/y) in September, the fourth consecutive m/m rise, after increases of 0.1% in August (unrevised) and 1.5% in July (+1.4% previously). Food prices for exports (1.9%; 4.7% y/y), government purchased foods (1.5%; 7.0% y/y) and finished consumer foods (0.9%; 3.7% y/y) all increased m/m in September.

The PPI for final demand goods advanced 0.9% (3.3% y/y) in September, the fifth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.2% increase in August (+0.1% initially). The PPI for final demand goods less food & energy rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) in September after a 0.3% increase in August, continuing its string of m/m gains since April 2024. Prices for final demand finished goods less food & energy rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.4% August rise. Finished consumer goods prices less food & energy edged up 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in September after a 0.5% advance in August, with durable consumer goods prices up 0.2% (2.6% y/y) and core nondurable consumer goods prices up 0.1% (2.4% y/y). Prices for private capital equipment rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) in September and August, while prices for government purchased goods excluding foods & energy increased 0.1% (2.8% y/y) for the second successive month.

Prices for final demand services were unchanged (2.5% y/y) in September following a 0.3% decline in August (-0.2% initially) and a 0.9% gain in July (+0.7% previously). Trade services prices fell 0.2% (+1.5% y/y) in September, the third m/m fall in four months. Services prices of transportation & warehousing rose 0.8% (3.4% y/y) in September, the third consecutive m/m rise, while services prices less trade, transportation & warehousing ticked up 0.1% (2.9% y/y), the fifth straight m/m increase.

Prices for final demand construction held steady (0.9% y/y) in September following a 0.1% downtick in August (unrevised) and three successive m/m rises. Construction prices for private capital investment were flat (0.7% y/y) in September, while construction prices for government ticked up 0.1% (1.4% y/y); both categories saw a 0.1% decline in August.

Meanwhile, prices for intermediate demand processed goods rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y) in September, the fifth m/m gain in six months, on top of a 0.4% rise in August (unrevised), led by a 0.9% increase (4.0% y/y) in intermediate demand processed fuel & lubricant costs.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

251125L17.jpg

251125M17.jpg

- Sept. PPI increases 0.3% m/m (+2.7% y/y), driven by price rises of 3.5% in energy and 1.1% in foods.
- PPI ex foods & energy edges up 0.1%; prices for both services and construction hold steady.
- Core goods prices increase 0.2% (+2.9% y/y) after a 0.3% August gain.
- Intermediate demand processed goods prices up for the fifth time in six months.

U.S. Producer Prices Rise in September Led by Energy

Robert Brusca

251125E.jpg

The INSEE survey of household confidence in France eased in November after having seen some rebound in October. The chart shows that household confidence has generally been giving back ground over the past year; that contrasts to the business climate indicator that has been stable during this period, with a very slight uptrend.

Household confidence has a 29.3 percentile (rank) standing on data back to 2001, marking the level of confidence as a lower one-third phenomenon for France in November.

Living standards over the past 12 months had been relatively stable, posting a value of -74 in November, much the same as what we see over the earlier five months and translating into a ranked standing in its lower 15-percentile, a relatively weak result. The outlook for living standards over the next 12 months is at a diffusion value of -55; however, it is still at a relatively weak 15-percentile standing. The prospects for unemployment had diminished slightly over the last five months, but currently the reading has a 62.6 percentile standing. That's a rank standing above the 50th percentile, marking it as a concern about unemployment that's slightly higher than the median for the period.

Price developments in November yield a diffusion rating of -9, very little change compared to the previous four months and with the rank standing at its 37th percentile, basically suggesting that there was not much concern about inflation over the past 12 months. The next 12-month reading is at -32 in November, unchanged from October and slightly weaker than the previous three months; however, the standing is at its 49th percentile, which is essentially at its median.

The favorability to save, at a reading of 45 in November, had stepped up slightly over the past five months, while the ability to save over the next 12 months had also crept up very slightly. Each of these metrics has a very high ranked percentile standing in the 99th percentile. Favorability to save responses are generally strongly correlated with unfavourability to spend and we see that here again with the favorability to make major purchases at a -30 reading in November and having generally slipped from the previous five months and having fallen to a percentile standing in its 16.3 percentile, quite a weak situation.

The financial situation over the past 12 months had largely been unchanged at the level of the November reading; it has a 64.3 percentile standing, above its historic median. However, for the next 12 months the financial situation, while also having improved compared to its recent history, has a percentile standing only in its 43.5 percentile.

The INSEE household confidence survey for November remains weak and continues to show soft spots. There is little evidence of firming across the components, and the trend behavior is that this index has been slipping at a slow pace over about the last year. None of that seems to be changed as of November 2025.

251125.jpg

France

French Household Confidence Erodes Slightly in November

Tom Moeller

251124A12.jpg

251124B12.jpg

The National Association for Business Economics expects real GDP to grow 2.0% in 2025, revised from 1.8% expected in the October survey, and 1.9% in 2026, revised from 1.7%. These growth rates compare to 2.8% in 2024. Growth from Q4-to-Q4 is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, revised from 1.3%, and an unrevised 1.9% in 2026. These increases compare to 2.4% y/y in 2024. Quarterly GDP is expected to grow 2.8% in Q3’25, 1.0% in Q4’25, 1.5% in Q1’26, 1.9% in Q2’26 then by 2.0% in both of the following two quarters.

Expected real growth in personal consumption expenditures in 2025 was increased to 2.5% from 2.0% and raised to 1.8% from 1.6% in 2026. The projection for business fixed investment growth was unchanged at 3.8% this year, then raised to 2.4% from 1.7% growth in 2026. An expected 1.9% decline in residential fixed investment this year was deepened from -1.6%, followed by 0.1% growth in 2026, which was revised from 0.4%. Estimates of government spending growth of 1.3% this year and 0.9% in 2026 were unchanged.

The net export deficit is expected to widen to $1.125 trillion in 2025, revised from $1.113 trillion expected earlier, then narrow to $1.037 billion in 2026, revised from $1.024 trillion. Exports should increase a little-revised 0.6% this year, then 0.5% in 2026, revised from 1.1%. Imports are projected to rise an unchanged 2.8% in 2025, then fall a little-changed 1.4% in 2026. Inventory accumulation should edge lower this year to an unchanged estimate of $40 billion, down from $43.5 billion in 2024, then slow $28.0 billion in 2026, revised from $34.0 billion estimated earlier.

251124C12.jpg

251124D12.jpg

Housing starts are expected to remain fairly steady at 1.36 million in 2025, revised from 1.35 million, then hold steady at an unrevised 1.35 million in 2026. They have been trending lower since their 2021 peak of 1.60 million. Light vehicle sales should rise slightly this year to 16.1 million, revised from 16.0 million units, then ease to 15.8 million next year, revised from 15.5 million estimated earlier. The average gain in payroll employment should weaken to 57,000 per month in 2025, revised from 62,000, then rise to 64,000 in 2026, revised from 99,000. These gains compare to 168,000 per month in 2024. The unemployment rate expectation in 2025 was changed to 4.3% from 4.2% estimated earlier, and should move up to an unchanged estimate of 4.5% in 2026.

Inflation pressures are expected to eventually abate. After falling in 2024 to 2.7% (Q4/Q4), the increase in the CPI is forecast to first rise to an unchanged estimate of 3.0% this year, then ease to a minimally changed 2.7% in 2026. These increases compare to a 7.1% rise in 2022. Price inflation as measured by the PCE chain price index, is expected to rise 2.9%, Q4/Q4 in 2025, revised from 3.0%, then fall to a minimally changed 2.6% in 2026. It reached 6.0% in 2022. The gain in the chain PCE price index excluding food & energy is projected to steady at 3.0%, revised from 3.1% this year, then fall to 2.6% in 2026, revised from 2.5%. The index rose to its high of 5.2% in 2022. The estimated cost of crude oil of $62 per barrel at the end of this year compares to $64 per barrel last projected. The estimated $64 per barrel at the end of next year was unchanged and compares to $70 per barrel at the end of 2024.

Interest rates on a 10-year Treasury note are expected to dip. The forecast of 4.09% on 10-year Treasuries at the end of this year compares to 4.14% expected earlier, and 4.05% at the end of next year, compared to 4.08% previously projected. The Fed is expected to continue its easing of monetary policy. The Federal funds rate is forecast to be 3.63% at the end of 2025, compared to 3.87% expected earlier, versus 4.38% at the end of 2024. It should then fall to an unrevised 3.13% by the end of 2026. After-tax corporate profits are predicted to rise 2.3% this year, revised from 3.9%, and 3.5% next year, revised 2.9% expected earlier.

The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

251124F12.jpg

251124G12.jpg

- Consumer spending estimate is increased.
- Business & residential investment estimates are raised.
- Moderating inflation expectations are little-changed.

NABE GDP Growth Forecasts for 2025 & 2026 Edge Higher

251124A37.jpg

251124B37.jpg

General business activity in Texas worsened in November after remaining in negative territory in October, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The overall measure, the general business activity index, was at -10.4 in November, down from -5.0 in October and -8.7 in September. The November reading was the lowest level since June; although up from a low of -35.8 in April, it was below a high of +14.1 in January and -1.7 in November 2024. The index had been in negative territory from February through November 2025, except for a one-month positive reading of +0.9 in July. An 18.9% of respondents reported improved business activity in November, slightly up from 18.4% in October. A higher 29.3% of respondents reported worsened business conditions, up from October's 23.4%. The company outlook index fell to -6.3 in November, the third consecutive negative reading and the lowest since June, from -0.3 in October. An increased 19.5% of respondents expected improved company outlook this month while a higher 25.8% expected deterioration. Data were collected between November 10 and 18 from 70 Texas manufacturers.

The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose to 20.5 in November after having registered at 5.2 in the previous two months, indicating production expanded for the ninth straight month and at the highest level since July. An increased 38.4% of respondents reported higher production this month while a lessened 17.9% reported a decline. The capacity utilization index recovered to 19.4 in November, the highest reading since December 2021, from -1.1 in October; it was up from a low of -15.0 in January 2024 but well below a record-high 46.3 in March 2021.

The growth rate of orders index increased to -1.3 in November from -3.7 in October, marking the strongest of three successive negative readings. The index was above a low of -22.0 in April and a low of -24.3 in November 2023 but significantly below a peak of 29.6 in April 2021. The new orders index rose to 4.8 this month from -1.7 in October, indicating a rise in demand for the first time since August. The index was above a low of -20.0 in April and a low of -21.8 in November 2022 but well below a high of 22.6 in February 2022 and a record-high 38.6 in April 2021. The shipments index jumped to 15.1 this month, the fifth consecutive positive reading and the highest since February 2022, after declining to 5.8 in October. The unfilled orders index slipped to -6.6 in November, the 15th straight negative reading, from -6.4 in October. The index was below a high of 1.4 in August 2024 but above a low of -26.3 in July 2024. Meanwhile, the delivery time index fell to -8.4 this month, the lowest reading since April, from -7.2 in October.

Labor market indexes showed relatively flat employment conditions and longer workweeks in November. The employment index edged down to 1.2 this month from 2.0 in October, marking the sixth positive reading in seven months, with the near-zero level indicating little change in employment. The latest reading, while up from a low of -9.7 in January 2024, was well below a high of 17.9 in January 2023 and a record-high 31.8 in April 2021. Seventeen percent of respondents reported net hiring in November, while 15.9% reported net layoffs—virtually unchanged from October. The hours worked index increased to 9.9 this month, the highest reading since August, after falling to -5.5 in October. The wages & benefits index rebounded to 15.4 in November from 14.2 in October; nevertheless, having been trending downward since a peak of 55.0 in March 2022 and remaining below the historical average.

Inflationary pressures increased slightly this month. The index for prices received for finished goods rose to 10.8 in November following a 4.0-point decline to 7.7 in October; it was up from a low of -7.0 in November 2023 but meaningfully below a high of 47.4 in March 2022 and a peak of 51.4 in October 2021. An increased 22.0% of respondents reported raising prices in November while 11.2% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials rose to 35.3 this month after a 10.0-point fall to 33.4 in October. The index was well above a low of 1.0 in June 2023 but significantly below 73.2 in March 2022 and a record-high 83.8 in November 2021.

Expectations on future manufacturing activity remained positive this month. The future general business activity index increased to 11.0 in November after declining to 7.0 in October, registering the seventh straight positive reading and the highest since August. The future production index rebounded to a three-month-high 33.7 from October’s 21.0. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity also rose in November (vs. October), signaling increased activity six months ahead: company outlook (16.2 vs. 7.1), capacity utilization (34.0 vs. 17.5), new orders (39.2 vs. 18.3), growth rate of new orders (27.8 vs. 8.2), shipments (27.0 vs. 18.5), and employment (22.3 vs. 18.9). Meanwhile, future indexes for wages & benefits (39.1 vs. 41.5) and capital expenditures (12.9 vs. 26.8) declined in November (vs. October), but both remained in positive territory.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

251124C37.jpg

251124D37.jpg

- General Business Activity down in Nov. to -10.4, lowest level since June.
- Company Outlook (-6.3) negative for the third straight mth. and at a five-month low; Production (20.5) at a four-month high.
- New Orders Growth (-1.3) still negative, but New Orders (4.8) turns positive after two negative readings.
- Employment (1.2) positive for the sixth time in seven mths.
- Prices Received up 3.1 pts. to 10.8; Prices Paid up 1.9 pts. to 35.3.
- Future General Business Activity up to 11.0, a three-month high.

Texas General Business Activity Remains Negative in November, But Expectations Stay Positive

251124E.jpg

Germany’s IFO climate gauge fell in November logging a -16.5 net diffusion score after -14.6 in October. The overall index for climate ranks in its 18.4 percentile on data back to the early 1990s. Among the five key sectors that the table illuminates, only one, construction, has a ranking above 50% which puts it over its median for the period. Manufacturing is at a 13.6 percentile standing, retailing is at a 14.1 percentile standing, services are at a 16.8 percentile standing, and wholesaling is at a 26.9 percentile standing -  all of these quite weak.

**More on Climate....**
On a month-to-month basis, climate eased lower for the headline, manufacturing, construction, and retailing. There were month-to-month improvements in wholesaling, as it improved slightly to -19.4 in November from -20.5 in October and then services where a ‘zero’ reading in October crept up to a 0.5 positive reading in November.

**Current Conditions**
The current conditions metric for the IFO improved slightly to -5 in November from -5.6 in October. Improvements were pretty much across the board in all sectors with the exception of retailing that fell relatively sharply to a -20.9 reading in November from -16.6 in October. Once again, the percentile standings for these five sectors - this time for current conditions - show all of them below their historic median except for construction at a 62.1 percentile standing. The overall current index has a 10.4 percentile standing

**Expectations...not so great expectations...**
Expectations in this report weakened across the board with the headline moving to -10 in November from -8 in October. Manufacturing deteriorated particularly sharply falling to -7.1 in November from -2 in October. All sectors weakened, most of them with more modest month-to-month deterioration. The queue ranked standings for the all-sector reading is at the 21.9 percentile mark. Most of the sectors have a 20 to mid-20 percentile standing; the exceptions are construction with a 30.7 percentile standing and retailing with the very weak 7.9 percentile standing

**Summing up**
The weakening in the IFO index this month was unexpected. While current conditions were broadly getting slightly better, expectations took a significant step back in the month, raising questions about how the German economy is doing and what sorts of readings we're going to see next month afterward given this unexpected turn of events for the worse.

251124.jpg

Germany

IFO Expectations Drop in Germany

251121f5.jpg

251121g5.jpg


The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.0% during the four weeks ended November 21, 2025 after rising 0.9% in the prior four-week period. The index increased 1.9% y/y last week following a 1.5% y/y gain in the second week of November.

**Textile** group prices increased 2.4% during the last four weeks, about the same as they did in both of the two prior four-week periods, and they strengthened 3.4% y/y. The cost of burlap surged 23.2% in the last four weeks while rising a sizable 49.6% over the last year. Cotton prices, however, rose a modest 1.0% in four weeks but declined 5.9% y/y.

**Metals** sector prices increased 1.7% (10.4% y/y) in the last four weeks after a 2.7% rise in the prior four week-period. Tin prices rose 4.9% (28.3% y/y) in four weeks. Lead prices strengthened 3.4% (3.0% y/y) and the cost of steel scrap rose 1.9% (-0.8% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of copper scrap increased 1.4% (20.3% y/y). Moving lower, the cost of aluminum eased 0.5% (+7.0% y/y) and zinc prices fell 0.6% (+8.0% y/y) in four weeks.

**Crude oil & benzene** costs rose 2.4% (-7.6% y/y) in the last four weeks, following a 0.9% rise in the previous period. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 2.3% in four weeks to $59.83 per barrel but declined 13.2% y/y. The price was increased from a low of $58.47 in the third week of last month. The price of the petro-chemical benzene rose 8.4% (-12.5% y/y) in four weeks.

**Excluding crude oil**, the industrial commodity price index increased 0.9% (2.9% y/y) over the last four weeks, after rising 0.8% during the prior four-week period.

**Miscellaneous** sector prices declined 1.7% in the last four weeks and fell 1.8% y/y, after falling 2.0% in the prior period. Framing lumber prices weakened 10.3% (-10.1% y/y). The cost of tallow, used for frying & baking, declined 2.8% (+12.3% y/y) in four weeks. Offsetting this weakness, natural rubber prices rose 5.9% in four weeks, but declined 4.4% y/y.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

Navigating Unpredictable Terrain by John C. Williams, President & Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available [here](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil251121).
   




251121h5.jpg

251121i5.jpg

- Textile and metals prices continue to strengthen.
- Crude oil prices rise.
- Framing lumber costs decline again.


FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Rise Further in Latest Four Weeks

251121e.JPG

The month-to-month changes in the S&P PMI indices are mixed in November with slightly more of them weakening than strengthening but still quite a significant mix and the European monetary union the composite index weakened, dragged lower by a weakening in manufacturing while the services index improved. The services in EMU improved for three months in a row but manufacturing deteriorated for two months in a row before sinking in November.

Germany and France separately report early from the monetary union. Germany shows weakening across the board for all three sectors while France shows strengthening in the composite and in services only showing a weakening in manufacturing.

The United Kingdom shows weakening the composite and in services with strengthening in manufacturing. That pattern is repeated in Australia.

Japan shows improvement in all three sectors and shows consecutive improvement only in the composite index.

India shows weakening in the composite and in manufacturing with only services strengthening in November after all three sectors weakened in October.

The US, after seeing all three sectors weaken in September, then strengthen in October, shows the stronger composite and stronger services in November juxtaposed to a weaker manufacturing reading.

The monthly data create a great deal of turbulence and create a picture that's hard to pin down in terms of trends and generalities. However, the three-month, six-month, and 12-month average data provide a much more solid and stronger framework. That sequence is not only stronger but it's much more solid in terms of the message that it sends. The period averages which are calculated only on completed data (so these are data through October) show only three-sectors (out of 24) weakening that's France for the composite, and France for services, and Japan for manufacturing; the other six countries or areas all show sector readings improve for the three-month average compared to the six-month average.  Six-month averages compared to 12-month averages show only a weakening in Australia for manufacturing. 12-month averages compared to 12-months ago show weakening in only 8 separate sectors involving five different regions. Year-over-year comparisons show the UK is weaker in all sectors, Japan is weaker for the composite and for services, the European Monetary Union, Germany, and France are weaker on their 12-month average only for the services sector.

**Percentile standing**
The queue percentile standings for the eight countries in the table reveal readings below the 50% mark for only three of 24 sectors those 3 sectors are the UK composite, UK services, and manufacturing in Japan. All the rest have standings above the 50% mark which puts them above their historic medians on data back to January of 2021.

The standing data are substantially improved from what we're seeing just a few months ago there is a general improvement in the global economy as is clear from the average data although the monthly data are still quite touch and go. 

**Summing up**
The November report is disappointing because prior to its release there had been relatively solid trends in place. It's now going to be important to keep an eye on the monthly data to see if this improving trend remains or if we've entered a period where signals are going to get mixed again. There's some evidence of some scattered weaknesses, particularly in the UK economy, that's performing poorly, there, the central bank is likely to deliver another rate reduction soon. The situation in the European monetary union is much more in flux. The US is also in ‘no-man’s-land’ on jobs and inflation, but in the United States the difference is that GDP growth has been strong and appears to continue to be strong on the back of investment an artificial intelligence and in data centers. The US continues to report out weak job growth, essentially because of special factors related to structural demographic conditions, a closed border, deportations, legacy effects from a closed government, (which have now been reversed) and what may be ongoing weakness caused by a transition from firms that are phasing in their artificial intelligence investment. Every economy has a story. The US story may stave off rate cuts through year-end.



251121.JPG

S&P PMI Gauges are Mixed but Improving 

251120C.jpg

251120D.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 119,000 in September after falling 4,000 in August, revised from a 22,000 increase and rising 72,000 during July, revised from 79,000. Expectations had been for a 45,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change in payrolls of 62,000 compared to 18,000 in August, but stood far below its high of 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August, revised from 0.3% and an unrevised 0.3% in July. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y equals that in August. It has been trending lower from its 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% in August and 4.2% in July. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 8.0% after rising to 8.1% in August. It was 6.6% in April 2023.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment in September increased 97,000 after rising 18,000 in August. Construction sector employment strengthened 19,000 after falling for three consecutive months. Elsewhere employment fell. Factory sector jobs declined 6,000, off for the fifth straight month. Durable goods employment weakened 4,000 in September following a 21,000 decline. Nondurables employment fell 2,000 after a 6,000 August increase. The number of mining & logging industry jobs declined 3,000, the fifth consecutive monthly shortfall.



251120e.jpg

Private service-sector employment increased 87,000 during September after improving 50,000 in August. Employment increases occurred in just three service-sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 59,000 in September, following a 43,000 August increase. The number of leisure & hospitality jobs rose 47,000 after a 32,000 gain while financial activities employment improved 5,000 after falling 15,000 in August. Elsewhere, employment was weak. The number of professional & business services jobs fell 20,000, down for the fifth straight month as temporary help employment declined 15,900, also off for the fifth month in a row. Trade, transportation & utilities employment eased 2,000, off for the seventh consecutive month. Information services employment held steady after falling for three consecutive months. 

Offsetting some of this weakness, government sector payrolls rose 22,000 in September and reversed the 22,000 August drop. State government payrolls increased 16,000 after falling in each of the prior four months. Local government hiring rose 9,000 following a 14,000 August increase. Continuing to decline, federal government employment weakened 3,000 in September and has fallen in all but one month this year. 

Private-sector average hourly earnings improved 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in September after rising 0.4% in August, revised from 0.3%. Earnings in the goods-producing sector increased 0.3% in September after two straight 0.4% gains, although the 4.0% y/y increase is below the 5.4% high early last year. In construction, earnings rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% rise, while factory sector earnings improved 0.4% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. In the private service sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in September after a 0.4% gain. Information earnings improved 0.3% (5.2% y/y) after rising 0.7% in August. Professional & business services pay increased 0.3% (4.8% y/y) after four straight months of 0.5% increase while leisure & hospitality earnings rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Private education & health services earnings eased 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) following a 0.1% gain. 

The length of the average workweek held at 34.2 hours in September after falling from 34.3 hours in July. The workweek in the goods-producing sector fell to 39.7 hours from 39.8 hours in August. The construction sector average workweek was 39.0 hours for the third straight month while the factory sector workweek eased to 39.9 hours, the weakest since October of last year. The average workweek in the private service sector was 33.2 hours for the third straight month. Information sector hours surged to 37.5, the most in five years. Financial activities hours held at 37.6. Private education & health services hours steadied at 32.7 in August.



251120f.jpg

251120g.jpg

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September after rising to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July. A 251,000 rise in employment lagged the 288,000 August gain. Labor force growth picked up to 470,000 in September from 436,000 in August. It was the highest jobless rate since October 2021, up from a 3.4% low in April 2023. 

The labor force participation rate rose to 62.4% in September from 62.3%, remaining well below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers jumped to 36.3%, a five-month high. For workers aged 20-24, the rate rose to 71.1% after plunging to a four-year low of 70.2%. For workers aged 25-54, the participation rate held at 83.7% after increasing from 83.4% in July. For individuals 55 and over, the rate held steady at 38.1% but remained near a 20-year low of 38.0% in June.

The employment/population ratio for all workers edged up to 59.7% in September. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic. For men, the rate slipped to 64.8% from 65.0% in August and for women, the rate increased to 54.8% after slipping to 54.5% in July.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.



- Hiring improves broadly.
- Construction, private services & government jobs rise, but factory employment declines.
- Earnings improvement is steady y/y, but slows m/m.
- Unemployment rate moves higher as job growth lags labor force gain.


U.S. Payroll Employment is Unexpectedly Firm in September; Earnings Rise Steadily, but Jobless Rate Edges Up

large_251126V5.jpg

medium_251126V5.jpg

small_251126V5.jpg

thumbnail_251126V5.jpg

251126V5.jpg

large_251126W5.jpg

medium_251126W5.jpg

small_251126W5.jpg

thumbnail_251126W5.jpg

251126W5.jpg

New orders for durable goods rose 0.5% (7.2% y/y) in September after a 3.0% jump, which followed a 2.8% July decline. A 1.0% shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

A 0.4% (15.8% y/y) rise in transportation sector orders followed an 8.0% August surge, led by commercial aircraft orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.4% (4.0% y/y) after increasing 0.8% in August. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.6% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Machinery orders edged 0.1% higher (6.1% y/y) in September after a 2.2% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) following a 1.1% decline while electrical equipment & appliance orders strengthened 1.5% (6.6% y/y), the strongest of six consecutive increases. Orders for fabricated metal products increased 0.5% (0.8% y/y) for a second month while primary metals orders surged 1.4% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.

Shipments of all manufacturing industries eased 0.1% in September (+2.3% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, an indicator of equipment investment in the national accounts, rose 0.9% (4.1% y/y) in September after falling 0.1% in August. Machinery shipments increased 1.4% (4.6% y/y) after easing 0.1% while computer & electronic product shipments were off 0.1% (+4.9% y/y) following a 0.2% dip. Electronic equipment, appliances & components shipments rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.1%. Motor vehicle & parts shipments rose 0.5% (3.9% y/y) during September following a 0.6% rise. Nondurable goods shipments eased 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) after 0.4% decline.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.7% (8.2% y/y) in September for the second month in a row. Excluding a 1.0% surge in transportation, unfilled increased a steady 0.2% (0.9% y/y). Total factory sector inventories eased 0.1% (+1.4% y/y). Durable goods inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories were roughly stable (+0.6% y/y) for the second straight month.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_251126X5.jpg

medium_251126X5.jpg

small_251126X5.jpg

thumbnail_251126X5.jpg

251126X5.jpg

large_251126Y5.jpg

medium_251126Y5.jpg

small_251126Y5.jpg

thumbnail_251126Y5.jpg

251126Y5.jpg

- Broad-based orders improvement follows August jump.
- Durable shipments gain reverses prior month’s dip.
- Order backlogs grow for second month; inventories ease.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Increase in September

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Increase in September

Recent Commentaries

Monetary Policy Mistakes

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell in Latest Week

Featured Data Additions, November 26, 2025

U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications Inched Up in The Latest Week

U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in November; Inflation Expectations Steady

U.S. Retail Sales Post Limited Rise in September

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints