Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

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Data Link Express

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Robert Brusca

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Global monetary reflation is once again underway. The United States, the European Monetary Union, and the United Kingdom are all our participants; Japan is the country going its own way continuing to tighten and to restrict policy through disciplined and tightening monetary growth.

**Reflation afoot**
Among the other three countries that are showing monetary stimulus, the U.K. is leading the way with the sterling M4 growth rate up to 7.6% at an annual rate over three months. The U.K. data lag other data in the table; they're not up to date through April; still, the acceleration is quite apparent over three months. Over 12 months, U.K. money growth is 3.5%, U.S. money growth is 4.4%, and the European Monetary Union money growth rate is 3.6%. The annual numbers still represent reflation increases in the annual growth rates compared to where they have been in the last three years, although none of the year-over-year growth rates really look like they are yet excessive compared to inflation targeting plans and likely GDP growth rates. However, this is definitely a transition to reflation. The question is whether it will be tempered at the right point.

**EMU trends**
In the European Monetary Union, the two-year growth rate and the three-year growth rates for money are under 2% while the 12-month growth rate is up to 3.6%. Monetary Union growth rate of real money balances is up over three months at 2.3% at an annual rate and at 1.5% over 12 months. European credit growth is picking up, as well, with private credit growth running at a 2.5% annual rate over three months and at a 2.3% pace over 12 months; in real terms, private credit growth year-over-year, however, is only 0.2%.

**U.S. trends**
In the United States, money growth is up to 6.5% at an annual rate over three months, money growth has progressed from averaging 0.2% over three years, to 2.7% over 2 years, and now to 4.4% over 12 months. U.S. nominal money growth clearly is accelerating. Looking at the growth of real balances in the U.S., the real money stock is growing at a 4.9% annual rate over three months and at 2.1% at an annual rate over 12 months.

**U.K. trends**
In the United Kingdom, there is that 7.6% three-month growth rate that compares to 3.5% over 12 months and to slower growth over 2 and 3 years. Real balance money growth is at a 3.3% annual rate over three months; over 12 months, the U.K. growth rate for real money balances is flat! While the U.K. seems to be in a period of relatively sharp acceleration for money growth, it's not yet a long-lived period of expansion, and so that has not yet had much impact on actual inflation developments. But the jack-rabbit start to monetary acceleration is something to be wary of.

**Japan trends**
In Japan, M2 plus CD's is falling at a 2% annual rate over three months, and rising at only a 0.4% in an annual rate over 12 months. That represents a lower growth rate than its two-year or three-year growth rate for the money stock. In terms of real money balances, over three months Japan's real balances are shrinking at a 3% annual rate, the same as the 12-month growth rate. Japan clearly is using monetary policy to squeeze inflation lower.

**Oil**
Disinflation efforts have been helped everywhere by oil prices that are falling in dollar terms at a 48.3% annual rate over three months and falling at a 24.6% annual rate over 12 months.

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**The central bankers club**
Central banks have been busy lowering interest rates because inflation rates have been coming down after a long period of inflation excess; bankers are clearly right now trying to manage the transition between excessive inflation to sustainable growth. But they are doing so at a time when there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty lingering because of the Russia-Ukraine war, because of shifting geopolitical alignments and responsibilities, and – significantly - because of U.S. tariff policy that has injected a lot of uncertainty into the outlook.

**Tariffs**
The uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy is substantially about uncertainty over what the U.S. is trying to achieve. At various points, the U.S. has talked about generating tariff revenues and other times it has talked about getting foreign countries to peel back their own tariffs. If the U.S. uses its tariff tool to reduce tariffs globally, this will turn out to be a pro-growth disinflationary move rather than an inflationary move. But the suspicion is that even if the U.S. is able to gain some tariff reform, it's going to leave more tariffs in place than what it had before it began its tariff gambit. That probably rises inflation risks somewhat.

**Risks faced by central banks**
The dangers for central banks in this are many because the U.S. currently has overshot its inflation target for over 4 years and other central banks have had similar experiences with their own inflation targeting… and missing. It's hard in this environment to argue that the central banks have credibility as inflation fighters after the way they've missed their targets in the post-COVID period. Not only did they miss their targets because it was a difficult period to make policy, but they missed their targets because they simply did not expend the energy and discipline required to hit those targets. This should take a toll on their credibility. So now with money supply growth picking up, and interest rates being pared back, under threat that tariffs will be raising price levels in the near term, the risk of inflation is all the greater. Central bankers need their credibility but it is eroded. These policies begin to look like central banks are willing to engage in a strategy of reflation and if it backfires into inflation they will simply blame it on tariffs. After all, during COVID, many of them simply blamed the inflation on COVID and on fiscal policy. There have been several papers trying to exonerate the Federal Reserve or to argue that the policy that it made that appeared to respond too slowly to inflation actually wound up making superior policy compared to the Fed following a more conventional consistent anti-inflation strategy. Central bank apologists proliferate.

**Central bankers**
Central banks have become more powerful during this period. Even if they remain under the pressure of criticism. Meanwhile, there have been significant political changes with new political parties taking hold across many European countries, in the U.S., and in Japan.  With new economic policies, new views, and a new set of people in charge of economic policy, it becomes even harder to decide how the inflation growth trade-offs are going to play out in the future. Central banks largely have missed their inflation targets over the last four years and while we have been through a period in which inflation rates have been falling from those heights, inflation rates still do not look tame with respect to their targets. Yet, central banks do not appear to have any fire in their belly to hit their targets and now we have monetary reflation afoot as countries continue to suffer from fiscal excesses in the wake of COVID with little evidence that they will implement any newfound austerity to rein in the excesses that supported growth during the pandemic.

Global Monetary REFLATION

Andrew Cates

**The US dollar and US Treasuries**
This first chart highlights an unusual divergence: while US 10-year Treasury yields have continued to rise through May—reflecting increased term premia and a reassessment of fiscal risks—the broad nominal effective exchange rate for the US dollar has fallen sharply. This disconnect points to growing unease about the institutional and geopolitical underpinnings of US financial leadership. The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies, initiated in early April and selectively rolled back in May, have heightened uncertainty over the credibility of US trade strategy. While the Treasury sell-off is partly a function of persistent inflation concerns and elevated issuance, it also reflects a rising risk premium associated with erratic policy signals and capital flow disruptions. Importantly, this repricing hasn’t remained confined to US markets—long-term yields have moved higher across Europe and Japan as well, suggesting that global fixed income investors are increasingly reacting to systemic pressures rather than country-specific fundamentals. The dollar’s underperformance in this context may reflect not just narrowing rate differentials, but a deeper questioning of its safe-haven role.

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**Central Bank policy and rising real yields** 
The second chart underscores a key structural force behind the recent rise in real yields: the retreat of central bank support. The inverted bars, showing the decline in central bank assets as a share of GDP, highlight the steady withdrawal of balance sheet stimulus across major economies since 2022. As central banks unwind their holdings, term premia have begun to rebuild, pushing up longer-term US real yields. This shift reflects not just the end of quantitative easing, but a deeper re-pricing of risk in a world where investors can no longer rely on central banks to backstop sovereign bond markets. The rise in real yields could be seen as both a signal of capital scarcity and a challenge for leveraged economies—especially those facing higher debt servicing costs and more volatile funding conditions in the post-QE era.

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**Global imbalances**
The third chart further illustrates a potential shift in global financial dynamics: the gradual erosion—or at least plateauing—of global current account surpluses. While IMF data show that emerging and developing economies continue to post modest external surpluses, forecasts suggest the aggregate position of advanced economies may be moving closer to balance. Notably, narrowing the still-large US deficit is also an explicit aim of US trade policy, with tariffs designed to rebalance trade and reduce external dependence. However, if global capital flows are, at the same time, also becoming more fragmented then the ability of deficit economies like the US to fund themselves at favourable rates may come under strain. While these dynamics are not yet definitive, they suggest a world in which the supply of global capital is less elastic and more politically charged—implying that long-term real yields may need to rise to reconcile savings and investment on new, more constrained terms.

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**US productivity trends**
This chart adds another dimension to the debate over rising real interest rates: the possibility that higher yields may reflect not just capital scarcity or fiscal strain, but stronger trend growth. US nonfinancial corporate productivity—measured as real output per hour—has shown clear signs of acceleration in recent quarters, breaking meaningfully above its pre-COVID trend. While one data series does not constitute confirmation, this pattern coincides with a surge in AI-related capital expenditure, particularly in areas tied to cloud computing, automation, and digital infrastructure. Whether this marks the beginning of a sustained productivity renaissance is still uncertain. However, markets may already be anticipating such a shift. Rising real yields could, in part, be a reflection of this optimism—pricing in not just tighter financial conditions but also a more robust underlying growth trajectory.

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**Global productivity trends**
While the US appears to be experiencing a notable rebound in labour productivity—potentially linked to early gains from AI and digital infrastructure investment—this chart highlights the stark contrast with other advanced economies. Productivity growth in 2024 has been broadly stagnant or negative across much of the G7, with Australia, Canada, Japan, and the euro area all showing declines in output per person employed. Even the UK’s modest gain pales in comparison to the US surge. This divergence underscores the uneven global diffusion of new technologies, as well as structural impediments—such as less flexible labour markets, and more restrictive fiscal environments—that may be holding back productivity elsewhere.

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**Energy prices**
This final chart offers a crucial—and often overlooked—angle in the global productivity debate: energy costs. The US enjoys a significant structural advantage here, with electricity prices markedly lower than in other major developed economies. While AI-driven capital investment may be contributing to rising US productivity, it is likely not the only factor at work. Energy remains a foundational input for both digital and industrial output, and the US's relatively low and stable power prices provide a key tailwind to efficiency and scalability. By contrast, countries like the UK and Germany continue to grapple with structurally higher energy costs—one of several constraints weighing on broader productivity growth.

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Financial markets have entered a more unsettled phase, with long-term yields, until very recently, rising notably across the US, Europe, and Japan. While inflation persistence and increased government borrowing have played a role, the moves also reflect broader concerns about global policy credibility and capital market dynamics. In the US, the unusual combination of higher yields and a weaker dollar points to growing risk premia linked to trade uncertainty and questions around institutional leadership (chart 1). At the same time, the withdrawal of central bank balance sheet support has continued to lift real yields across major economies (chart 2). Investors are also paying closer attention to savings and investment imbalances, where fewer surplus economies and persistent US deficits suggest a potentially tighter global savings environment (chart 3). Interestingly, the US stands out for a different reason: early signs of a productivity revival are emerging, possibly tied to AI investment and the broader digital infrastructure boom (chart 4). That contrasts with continued productivity stagnation in most other advanced economies (chart 5), where structural frictions and energy costs remain a drag. Indeed, the US may also be benefiting from a more fundamental edge—significantly cheaper electricity—giving it a further competitive advantage in this new capital- and data-intensive era (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: The Yield Awakening

Tom Moeller

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Real GDP slipped 0.2% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025, revised from down 0.3%, after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It remained the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.90 percentage points from growth last quarter, revised from -4.83 percentage points. Imports surged 42.6% (13.6% y/y) ahead of tariffs, revised from 41.3% which began to take effect late in the quarter. Imports declined 1.9% in Q4’24. Exports rose 2.4% (3.1% y/y), revised from 1.8%, after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.64 percentage points to growth, revised from 2.25 points, after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.0% (2.8% y/y), revised from 2.3%, in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.2% (2.9% y/y), revised from 1.8%, following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell a little-revised 3.8% (+5.2% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.2% (+5.4% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.4% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays improved 0.2% (6.4% y/y) last quarter, revised from 2.5%, after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.2% (2.9% y/y), revised from 2.7%, following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.8% (2.6% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 1.1% (2.0% y/y, revised from 2.5%, after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases strengthened 4.5% (3.3% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 1.7% (2.6% y/y), revised from 2.4%, after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.0% (1.7% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 3.2% (4.6% y/y), revised from 4.0%, following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.5% (4.6% y/y) aft1er a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 1.4% (2.0% y/y), revised from 4.7%, following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 0.9% (+0.8% y/y), revised from +2.1%, after rising 2.8%. Financial services expenditures rose 0.8% (1.8% y/y), revised from 1.9%, after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Revised higher, business fixed investment increased 10.4% (3.7% y/y), revised from 9.8%, following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures declined 1.5% (-0.9% y/y), revised from a 0.4% gain, after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 24.7% (8.5% y/y), revised from 22.5%, after falling 8.7% in Q4. Outlays on information processing equipment soared 72.9% (19.5% y/y), revised from 69.3%, following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment rose 4.8% (1.3% y/y), revised from a 1.4% decline, after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.6% (2.0% y/y) following a 0.5% decline.

Residential structures investment declined 0.6% (also -0.6% y/y), revised from a 1.3% increase, after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 0.7% (+2.6% y/y), revised from down 1.5% after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 4.6% (+3.0% y/y), revised from a 5.1% gain, after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 7.1% (+4.2% y/y), revised from 8.0%, after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 1.7% (2.4% y/y), revised from 0.8%, following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose an unrevised 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 3.7% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.4% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.5% (1.8% y/y) after a 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 4.1% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.6% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise. Each of these figures were minimally changed or unrevised.

After-tax corporate profits fell 1.0% (+8.4% y/y) following a 6.7% Q4’24 increase. Before-tax profits declined 2.9% (+5.5% y/y) after a 5.4% rise in Q4. Financial sector profits rose 1.3% (20.5% y/y) after increasing 10.7%. Nonfinancial corporate profits weakened 3.5% (+3.5% y/y) following a 2.0% gain. Profits from the rest of world declined 5.9% (-2.0% y/y) after an 18.8% increase.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- First GDP decline in three years is minimally changed.
- Substantial foreign trade subtraction ahead of tariffs is increased; inventory addition is raised.
- Domestic final demand growth is reduced.
- Price index strength is unchanged, but corporate profits decline.

U.S. GDP Q1’25 Decline is Lessened; Price Strength Unrevised but Profits Decline

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, fell 6.3% m/m to 71.3 in April following a downwardly revised 5.5% gain to 76.1 in March (+6.1% & 76.5 initially) and an unrevised 2.1% increase in February, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The April reading was the first m/m fall and the lowest PHSI level since January. The year-on-year rate was -2.5% in April after -1.2% in March, registering the fifth consecutive negative y/y pace; this compared to -6.6% y/y in April 2024. The PHSI had fallen 43.0% since its October 2021 high of 125.1 and 44.3% since its August 2020 peak of 128.0.

The m/m fall in April pending home sales occurred as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.73% in April after declining to 6.65% in March (lowest since October). These rates, while below a peak of 7.62% in October 2023, had remained higher than a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and well above a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

Pending home sales dropped m/m in April in all four major regions. Sales in the West slid 8.9% (-6.5% y/y) in April, the fifth m/m slide in six months, after a 4.7% rebound in March. Sales in the South decreased 7.7% (-3.0% y/y) following an 8.6% March advance and sales in the Midwest fell 5.0% (+2.2% y/y) after a 4.5% March rise; both registered the first m/m drop since January. Sales in the Northeast fell 0.6% (-3.0% y/y) on top of a 0.5% March decline, posting the third successive m/m fall and the fifth in six months.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- PHSI -6.3% (-2.5% y/y) in April vs. +5.5% (-1.2% y/y) in March.
- Widespread m/m falls in home sales, w/ the deepest decline in the West (-8.9%).
- Home sales down y/y in the West (-6.5%), Northeast (-3.0%), and South (-3.0%) but up y/y in the Midwest (+2.2%).

U.S. Pending Home Sales Drop in April After Two Straight M/M Increases

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 14,000 in the week ended May 24 to 240,000, seasonally adjusted. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 230,000. The previous week’s actual count was revised down by 1,000 to 226,000, from 227,000 reported initially. The 4-week moving average was 230,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 to 231,000.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – in the week ended May 17 was 1.919 million, up 26,000 from the prior week’s 1.893 million; that earlier amount was revised down by 10,000. The week of May 17 level for insured unemployment was the highest since November 13, 2021, when it was 1.970 million. The 4-week moving average was 1.890 million, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 1.888 million. This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021, when it was 1.924 million.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment, was 1.3% in the May 17 week, following three consecutive weeks at 1.2%.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended May 10, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.24%), California (2.15%), Washington (2.09%), Rhode Island (1.89%), Massachusetts (1.82%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Florida (0.36%), Alabama (0.43%), Nebraska (0.45%), and Tennessee and North Carolina (both at 0.48%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (1.61%), New York (1.59%), Pennsylvania (1.44%) and Texas (1.11%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 14,000 in the May 24 week.
- Total beneficiaries rose by 26,000 in the May 17 week to the highest level since November 13, 2021.
- The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise in Latest Week

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Italian consumer and business confidence both rose in May. Consumer confidence rose sharply following a sharp drop in April; the main confidence level brings it back up above the level for March. Business confidence has been relatively stable; after a slight slouch in April, business confidence is back up and it too is slightly above its level for March. However, consumer confidence in Italy continues to be relatively firm relative to European standards. While consumer confidence in Germany is extremely low, Italy’s consumer confidence has a 70.7 percentile standing on data back to January 2006; Italian business confidence is much weaker with a 23.7 percentile standing. Italian consumers are feeling solidly but moderately confident while Italian businesses appear to be experiencing a great deal of anxiety. However, for Italian businesses while the level of anxiety may be high, a reading of 86.5 for confidence in May is the same as its average over the last 12 months.

**The Past 12 Months**
Consumer confidence in Italy finds an improvement in the overall situation over the last 12 months, with a reading of -69 in May compared to -80 in April. Price trends over the last 12 months have a reading of 20.5 compared to 16 one month ago, showing that inflation pressures have increased. The household financial situation over the last 12 months was only slightly stronger than what it had been in April and continued at its 12-month average. On balance, the standing for these three readings over the last 12 months is between their 61st and 77th percentiles in terms of rankings; that means all of them are above their historic medians and moderately firm.

**Currently**
The current situation finds household savings slightly better off in May compared to April, and the environment for making major purchases also improves to a reading of 33 compared to 31.5 in April. The major purchase reading is slightly above its 12-month average while the savings reading is slightly below. The ranking for the savings metric is in its lower 21-percentile while the ranking for the major purchase response is in its 66.8 percentile, a moderately positive and stable reading.

**The Outlook**
Turning to the outlook for the next 12-months, the overall situation assessment improved to a -20 reading from -26 in April, putting it back at the same level it had in March and leaving it below its 12-month average as well as at a low rank-standing at its 10th percentile. That’s a far cry from what it had been over the past 12 months. Price trend eased after spiking a month ago and are below their March reading but above their 12-month average and with an 87.1 percentile standing. Inflation concerns clearly linger. Unemployment expectations in May are back to their 12-month average and nearly at their historic median on a ranking of 49.1%. Carrying the confidence readings higher, the household budget and planned purchase responses both rose in May and are above their respective 12-month averages with a budget ranking at its 97.4 percentile and a planned-purchase ranking at its 94.8 percentile. These are very strong reading components in the outlook measure.

The future savings reading stepped lower in May and is below its 12-month average, but it has a queue percentile standing in its 80.6 percentile and remains strong despite some monthly erosion.

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**The Business Sector**
Business readings largely improved month-to-month, but by very little. They are also, and again by very small margins, stronger than their respective 12-month averages. And the business metrics except inventories rank below their respective medians (below a ranking of 50%). The confidence headline has a 23.7 queue percentile standing, with orders at a 32.8 queue percentile standing and export orders at a 24.6 queue percentile standing. Business rankings are roughly lower quartile to lower one-third of their ordered queues of historic responses.

Italy shows a robust and resilient consumer pitted against a troubled and worried business sector. There were some consumer response step backs in readings for April, but then largely rebounds in May so no clear lasting impact from Trump’s war with tariffs for businesses or consumers. As of now, the business sector response is simply to show a long, slow, moderation in its readings after a surge in the post-Covid environment. There are not many clues here about the future since little is really changing in the way of responses, but a lot is hanging in the balance that could change all that.  The appearance of stability is a mirage.

Italy

Italian Confidence Rises/Stabilizes in May

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to an average $3.29 per gallon (-11.1% y/y) in the week ended May 26 after rising to an average $3.30 in the previous week. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. An earlier high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. The all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel declined to $3.49 per gallon (-7.2% y/y) in the week of May 26 after rising to $3.54 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil eased to an average $61.91 per barrel (-21.6% y/y) in the week ended May 23 after rising to $62.58 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $60.89 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil of $65.86 per barrel (-17.9% y/y) in the week of May 23 edged up to $65.54 in the previous week. Prices remained well below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and compared to a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $64.32 per barrel.

Natural gas prices declined to $3.05 per mmbtu (+23.0% y/y) in the week ended May 23, after improving to $3.20/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well below earlier highs but were above their low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024. Prices peaked at $9.56/mmbtu in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $3.20/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand fell 1.0% y/y in the four weeks ending May 16 following a 3.8% y/y rise in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products fell 2.8% y/y in the four weeks ending May 16 after a 1.2% y/y decline in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ending May 16 after the same rise in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 0.6% y/y in the week ending May 16 after a 1.3% y/y fall in the week ending May 9. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 21.1% y/y in the week of May 16, after a 17.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.9% y/y in the week of May 16 after a 2.0% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose w/w to 25.6 days in the week of May 16 from 25.0 days in the prior. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil eased w/w to 27.3 days in the week of May 16 after falling to 27.4 days in the prior week and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

The minutes to the latest **FOMC** meeting are available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250507.pdf).

- Gasoline prices ease.
- The cost of crude oil drops minimally.
- Natural gas prices decline.

U.S. Energy Prices Weaken in Latest Week

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Mortgage applications declined 1.2% (+23.9% y/y) in the week ended May 23, after falling 5.1% in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications to purchase a home rose 2.7% (17.1% y/y) after falling 5.2% one week earlier. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 7.1% (+36.7% y/y) last week after declining 5.0% in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan edged up to 7.17% in the week ended May 23 after rising to 7.12% in the prior week. The latest rate was the highest since the fourth week of January. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan of 6.40% in the week ended May 23 compared to an increased 6.39% in the prior week. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan of 7.13% compared to an increased 7.15% in the prior week, while the rate on a 5-year ARM rose to 6.39% in the week ended May 23 and recovered the decline to 6.29% in the prior week.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage fell to 34.6% in the week ended May 23 from 36.6% in the prior week. The share of loans with an adjustable rate rose to 7.5% last week after falling to 7.1% one week earlier.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 0.9% (+1.2% y/y) to $386,000 in the week ended May 23, after falling 2.0% to $389,400 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to purchase a home fell 1.1% (+0.9% y/y) to $441,200 in the latest week after easing 0.7% to $446,200 in the week prior. The average size of a loan to refinance an outstanding mortgage declined 3.2% (+8.9% y/y) last week to $281,900 after declining 5.0% to $291,100 one week earlier.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications rise but loan refinancing declines.
- Effective interest rates are the highest in four months.
- Average loan size falls.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall in Latest Week as Interest Rates Edge Higher

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The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 during April and from 49.0 in March. The index was below the recent high of 50.9 in January, but stood above a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 49.3 for May. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Of the five component indexes, only one deteriorated m/m. The May inventory index fell to 46.7 from 50.8 in April. Sixteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher inventories while 21.2% reported them lower. Offsetting this decline, the production series rose to 45.4 after falling to 44.0 in April. A fairly steady 19.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while an increased 24.6% reported lower output. The new orders index improved to 47.6 last month from 47.2 in April. The index remained up from a low of 45.2 in March. Twenty-five percent of respondents reported higher new orders while 26.9% reported lower orders. The supplier delivery index rose to 56.1 last month from 55.2 in April. Nineteen percent (NSA) of respondents indicated slower product delivery speeds while 7.0% reported faster speeds.

Also moving higher, the employment reading rose to 46.8 last month from 46.5 in April. The figure has been trending lower since a high of 57.8 in March 2021, and remained below a recent January high of 50.3. Fourteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new employment while 17.7% reported a decline.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, eased to 69.4 (NSA) in May and reversed its increase to 69.8 in April. It remained up from a low of from a December 2022 low of 39.4. A lessened 45.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices last month, up from 12.2% in November, while a lessened 6.4% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders reading plunged to 40.1 in May from 43.1 during April. It was down from its high of 52.4 in January. The imports index also fell sharply to 39.9 from 47.1 in April. It was the lowest reading since April 2009. The order backlog reading rose to 47.1 (NSA) last month from 43.7 in April. It was well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Reading is below expansion level for third straight month.
- Inventories account for all of m/m weakening.
- Prices index remains near three-year high.

U.S. ISM Factory Index Falls in May

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