Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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Mortgage applications rose 1.7% (11.4% y/y) in the week ended November 15 after a 0.5% rise during the prior week. Applications for loans to purchase a home rose 2.0% (-1.7% y/y) in the latest week, following a 1.9% rise in the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan rose 1.8% (43.1% y/y) last week after a 1.5% decline one week earlier. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to 7.10% in the week ended November 15 from 7.03% one week earlier. It compared to a low of 6.29% in the third week of September and a high of 8.12% in mid-October of last year. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.51% in the latest week from 6.37% in the prior week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans edged up to 7.19% last week from 7.14% in the week prior, while the rate on the 5-year ARM rose to 6.50% from 6.29%. The ARM rates remain below the 7.31% high in the last week of October of last year but above the recent low of 5.93% in the last week of December.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.0% in the week ended November 15 from 39.9% in the prior week. That compared to a high of 39.7% in mid-December. The percentage of applications that were ARMs fell to 5.9% from 6.5%. The recent low of 5.4% was reached in early January.

The average loan size dropped 2.0% (+6.0% y/y) to $371,900 in the week ended November 15 from $379,300 in the previous week. The average size of a purchase loan eased 1.5% (+6.7% y/y) to $430,500 in the latest week from $436,900 in the prior week. The average loan size to refinance a mortgage declined 1.8% (+19.2% y/y) to $287,500 in the week ended November 15 from $292,700 in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both purchase & refinancing loan applications rise.
- Mortgage rates move higher. 
- Average loan size declines.


U.S. Mortgage Applications & Interest Rates Increased Last Week

Robert Brusca

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UK inflation jumped more than expected in October with the CPI-H rising 0.5% after being flat in September. The CPI-H core measure excluding energy, food, alcohol, & tobacco rose by 0.4% month-to-month after rising 0.1% in September.

Even though this is the UK reporting a bad number after a good number, its good number in September had followed another bad number in August so on balance the trend for the UK is remaining higher than the result that policy seeks.

**Inflation’s trend** - Sequentially headline CPI-H inflation is up by 3.2% over 12 months it's up at a 3.2% pace over six-months and it's up at a 3.6% annual rate over three-months. Those numbers compare to a 2% target for inflation in the UK; the core for the CPI-H that is described above, rises 4.1% over 12-months, rises at a 3.9% annual rate over six-months, and gains 3.7% at an annual rate over three-months. This rate shows some minor disinflation and progress but at a pace that's still terribly high and with the core rate higher than the headline rate on each of these sequential periods. That's disappointing because the core rate tends to be more stuck and it's harder to move.

**Inflation’s breadth** - Diffusion measures the breadth of inflation acceleration. That metric is at 54.5% in October, September, and in August. It tells us that the month-to-month inflation changes have had just a little bit more acceleration than deceleration over these last three months, a period when inflation has been running too hot. Sequentially, if we look at diffusion over 12 months, that diffusion is low with the reading of 18.2%. Over 12 months inflation is accelerating in only about 18% of the categories! But, of course, a year ago headline inflation was 4.7% and core inflation was 5.7% so it's not surprising that there's a broad deceleration from those sorts of numbers. Over six-months we find diffusion is a lot higher but the reading on diffusion is still quite low, showing a tendency for inflation to fall, since the diffusion index is only at 36.4%. Diffusion shows a lot more step down in inflation from six-months to 12-months than what we see in the actual inflation numbers measured either by the headline or the core CPI-H.  The inflation rate over three-months, however, shows that diffusion marks inflation as accelerating again. Three-month diffusion is at 63.6% indicating that inflation is accelerating in nearly two-thirds of the categories over three-months compared to six-months. This is certainly not acceptable with the three-month inflation rate running at 3.6% and with the core slightly hotter.

**Unemployment is low** - During this period, the economy has continued to generate low unemployment rates. The unemployment rate in August is 4.3%. That compares to a 12-month-ago unemployment rate of 4.1% twenty-four months ago it was at 3.8%. There has been only a small rise in the unemployment rate from some extremely low numbers. The claimant rate of unemployment shows a little more up-creep at 4.7% in October that compares to 4.6% in August; it compares to a rate 6 months ago at 4.1%.  The claimant rate is showing slightly more lift but still a relatively moderate rate of unemployment.

**Summing up** - These conditions are going to continue to make policy-making difficult at the Bank of England. Inflation is running hot, and it looks like it's stuck. The economy is performing reasonably well, judging from the state of the labor market. But there's also some evidence of economic weakness, certainly broader macroeconomic data have shown more weakness than just the unemployment rate. Policy in the UK is going to continue to face challenges as 2024 draws to a close.


United Kingdom

UK Inflation: Too High Stuck, & Disappointing

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to $3.17 per gallon (-7.2% y/y) in the week ended November 18 from $3.18 per gallon in the prior week. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ended April 22, and its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ended June 11, 2022. The latest measure of on-highway diesel fuel prices was $3.49 per gallon (-17.1% y/y) versus $3.52 per gallon in the prior week. Diesel prices have ranged between $2.37 per gallon in the week ended November 2, 2020 and $5.81 in the week of June 20, 2022.

Crude oil prices declined to $68.06 per barrel (-11.3% y/y) in the week ended November 15 and reversed the prior week’s increase to $71.58 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate prices have fallen from a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. Yesterday, the price was $69.39 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil stood at $72.89 per barrel last week (-11.0% y/y) versus $75.63 in the week prior. Yesterday’s price was $74.32 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose to $1.89 per mmbtu last week (-31.0% y/y) from $1.49 in the prior week. Prices were below a $2.73 high in the second week of June. The price was $2.10 per mmbtu yesterday.

Gasoline demand rose 0.5% y/y in the four weeks ended November 15, compared to a 0.6% y/y rise in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products increased 1.2% y/y in the four weeks ended November 15 after a 1.8% y/y increase in the prior four weeks.

Crude oil input to refineries rose an accelerated 6.1% y/y in the four-week period ended November 15 after a 6.4% y/y increase in the prior four weeks. Input to refinery growth was little-changed y/y from July to September.

Gasoline inventories fell 3.5% y/y in the week ended November 15 after decreasing 4.1% y/y in the week prior. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 14.0% in the week of November 15 after declining 11.6% y/y in the prior week. In contrast, crude oil inventories grew 2.5% y/y in the latest week following a 3.4% y/y increase during the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 22.9 days in the week ended November 8 from 23.8 days in the prior week. Data in the latest week show the lowest gasoline inventories since the first week of November 2021. Crude oil inventories slipped to 26.5 days’ supply in the week of November 8 from 26.6 days in the prior week. These compare to a low of 24.8 days in the week ended September 20, 2024 and a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.


- Gasoline prices slip. Crude oil prices decline but natural gas prices rise.
- Demand for gasoline increases moderately.
- Inventories of gasoline fall but crude oil inventories rise.


U.S. Energy Price Changes Vary in Latest Week

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Total housing starts fell 3.1% (-4.0% y/y) during October to 1.311 million (SAAR) after declining 1.9% in September to 1.353, revised from 1.354 million. Starts rose 9.3% in August to 1.379 million, revised from 1.361 million. Hurricanes Helene and Milton are likely to have affected housing activity during October. Starts were 28.3% below the most recent peak of 1.828 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.33 million starts in October.

Single-family starts fell 6.9% (-0.5% y/y) to 970,000 last month after rising 3.6% to 1.042 million in September, revised from 1.027 million. They rose 16.8% in August to 1.006 million. In October, single-family starts were at the lowest level in three months. Multi-family starts rose 9.6% last month (-12.6% y/y) to 341,000 after falling 16.6% to 311,000 in September. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022.

Starts in the Northeast declined 32.9% (+39.2% y/y) to 110,000 and reversed a 36.7% September increase. Starts in the South weakened 8.8% (-7.8% y/y) to 666,000 after falling 4.3% in September. Moving higher, starts in the West jumped 21.1% (-4.0% y/y) to 338,000 after falling 3.8% in September. Starts in the Midwest rose 9.4% (-7.1% y/y) to 197,000 units after falling 12.6% in September.

Building permits slipped 0.6% (-7.7% y/y) in October to 1.416 million after declining 3.1% in September to 1.425 million units, revised from 1.428 million. Single-family permits edged 0.5% higher (-1.8% y/y) to 968,000 last month after easing 0.4% in September. Multi-family permits declined 3.0% (-18.2% y/y) to 448,000, after declining 8.2% in September.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Single-family starts tumble as two hurricanes strike.
- Regional movement is mixed.
- Building permits ease to three-month low.


U.S. Housing Starts Decline Moderately While Building Permits Dip in October

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Online retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 2.6% in Q3’24 following 1.6% gains in both of the prior two quarters, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales rose 7.4% y/y after 10.0% growth in 2023, compared to 5.7% growth in 2022. E-Commerce sales accounted for 16.2% of total retail sales last quarter compared to 15.3% last year and 14.4% in 2022. The percentage was 6.4% in 2014.

The following details of the E-Commerce data by sector are not seasonally adjusted. Sales of nonstore retailers, which accounted for 60.9% of total E-Commerce, rose 7.3% y/y in Q3, following a 15.1% y/y rise in all of 2023.

General merchandise store sales rose 17.7% y/y in Q3’24 after a 10.2% gain in 2023. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 10.7% y/y following 2.8% growth in 2023. Food & beverage store sales improved 10.4% y/y after a 4.9% y/y 2023 rise while sales of building materials & garden equipment rose 1.6% y/y last quarter after a 4.2% y/y rise last year. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 4.1% y/y after falling 3.2% in 2023. Miscellaneous sales, including gasoline stations, rose 8.9% y/y following a 1.9% rise in 2023.

Elsewhere, sales declined. Furniture & home furnishing sales fell 4.1% y/y last quarter after declining 16.7% in 2023, while and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & book sales weakened 4.8% y/y after rising 0.6% y/y in 2023. Clothing & accessory store sales eased 0.4% y/y after little change in 2023. Health & personal care store sales eased 0.1% y/y last quarter after a 1.0% decline in 2023.

E-commerce sales are goods and services ordered over an internet, mobile device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be made online and sometimes sale & price are negotiated. Total sales estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. They are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays.

E-Commerce sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database.



- Online share of total sales remains high.
- Nonstore sales gains continue to moderate.
- General merchandise & electronics sales strengthen y/y.


U.S. E-Commerce Sales Strengthen in Q3’24

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Latest Releases

Economy in Brief

U.S. Mortgage Applications & Interest Rates Increased Last Week

UK Inflation: Too High Stuck, & Disappointing

U.S. Energy Price Changes Vary in Latest Week

U.S. Housing Starts Decline Moderately While Building Permits Dip in October

U.S. E-Commerce Sales Strengthen in Q3’24