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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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Stata

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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indows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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Job openings declined 556,000 (-14.5% y/y) during December to 7.6 million after rising 317,000 during November, revised from 259,000, to 8.156 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of job openings has been trending downward since the peak of 12.182 million reached in March 2022. The job openings rate fell to 4.5% from 4.9% in November, revised from 4.8%. It was the lowest openings rate in three months and remains well below a high of 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings declined 548,000 (-14.8% y/y) to 6.720 million after rising 319,000 in November and 448,000 in October. The December decline reflected a 225,000 drop (-0.8% y/y) in professional & business services openings fell 225,000 (-0.8% y/y) while private educational & health openings dropped 194,000 (-20.7% y/y). Construction sector job openings declined 55,000 (-50.0% y/y) while openings in manufacturing fell 11,000 (-27.0% y/y), their fifth consecutive monthly decline. The private sector job openings rate declined to 4.7% in December from an upwardly revised 5.1% in November and 4.9% in October. It has fallen from 5.5% twelve months earlier and 7.9% at its peak in March 2022.

Total hiring picked up in December by 89,000 (-5.6% y/y) to 5.462 million after falling 21,000 in November and 188,000 in October. Private sector hiring rose 69,000 (-5.4% y/y) after a 6,000 November decline and a 192,000 October collapse. Professional & business services hiring rose 11,000 (-8.2% y/y) while retail trade jobs rose 45,000 (4.5% y/y. Leisure & hospitality employment fell 33,000 (-11.8% y/y) and construction sector hiring was off 24,000 (-15.7% y/y). Government hiring rose 20,000 (-8.2% y/y).

Total job separations rose 38,000 (-2.8% y/y) to 5.269 million in December after falling 75,000 in November. Quits rose 67,000 (-7.0% y/y) after falling 153,000 in November while layoffs declined 29,000 (+10.2% y/y) after rising 52,000 in November; and other separations rose 1,000. Private layoffs fell 31,000 (+11.9% y/y) in December, reflecting a 61,000 decrease (+10.0% y/y) in leisure & hospitality layoffs. This was offset by a 99,000 surge in layoffs (+35.5% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities. Layoffs in the government sector rose 2,000 (-16.2% y/y).

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings drop following upwardly revised November gain.
- Decline concentrated in professional services & education.
- Layoffs reverse fall back but continue to trend higher.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Decline Sharply but Hiring Picks Up in December

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders fell a slightly more-than-expected 0.9% m/m (-1.1% y/y) in December after a 0.8% decline in November and a 0.5% increase in October, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 0.8% m/m December decrease had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The December reading was the fourth m/m fall in five months. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts plunged 45.7% in December on top of a 20.1% slump in November. Factory orders excluding defense fell 0.9% (-1.9% y/y), down for the fourth month in five, after a 0.4% November decline. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector grew 0.3% (1.3% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m gain and the sixth in seven months, following a 0.2% November increase. During all of 2024, factory orders eased 0.2% after gaining 0.9% in 2023 and 12.5% in 2022.

Durable goods orders slid 2.2% (-3.9% y/y) in December, the fourth m/m slide in five months, after a 2.0% decline in November (matching a 2.2% m/m decrease for Dec. in the advance report on Jan. 28). The December slide reflected m/m orders drops of 7.4% (-13.4% y/y) in transportation equipment, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.5% (-0.7% y/y) in primary metals. To the upside, the following durable goods orders rose m/m in December: fabricated metal products (1.1%; 2.1% y/y), electrical equipment, appliances & components (1.0%; 4.4% y/y), computers & electronic products (0.3%; 1.3% y/y), and machinery (0.1%; 0.5% y/y).

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, rose 0.3% (1.5% y/y) in December, the third straight m/m rise, after a 0.4% increase in November. The December rise reflected m/m gains of 4.5% (2.9% y/y) in apparel, 2.4% (2.5% y/y) in textile products, 0.7% (9.6% y/y) in beverage & tobacco products, 0.7% (-4.9% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, 0.3% (1.7% y/y) in food products, 0.3% (2.6% y/y) in paper products, and 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments fell m/m in December: textile mills (-0.8%; +0.05% y/y), leather & allied products (-0.2%; +0.9% y/y), and printing (-0.1%; +4.0% y/y). Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments for chemical products were virtually unchanged (5.4% y/y) in December after two successive m/m increases.

Total shipments rose 0.6% (1.9% y/y) in December following a 0.1% uptick in November and three consecutive m/m declines. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 0.2% (1.3% y/y), the fourth straight m/m rise and the fifth in six months, after a 0.3% November increase. Shipments of durable goods industries rebounded 0.9% (2.3% y/y) in December, the first m/m increase since July, after a 0.3% decline in November. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 2.8% (5.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.6% (4.1% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.6% (0.02% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (2.1% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods, 0.2% (0.3% y/y) in machinery, and 0.2% (-0.2% y/y) in wood products. In contrast, the following durable goods shipments fell m/m in December: furniture & related products (-0.9%; +0.4% y/y), primary metals (-0.6%; +0.9% y/y), fabricated metal products (-0.3%; +0.3% y/y), and computers & electronic products (-0.1%; +1.8% y/y).

Unfilled orders fell 0.5% (+0.5% y/y) in December, the first m/m fall since June, after a 0.2% increase in November. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders increased 0.2% (0.2% y/y) in December after holding steady in November and rising 0.2% in the prior three months. Backlogs of durable goods also fell 0.5% (+0.5% y/y) in December, led by m/m drops of 0.8% (+0.7% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.4% (+3.0% y/y) in primary metals.

Inventories rose 0.4% (0.8% y/y) in December following a 0.4% rise in November and two successive m/m declines. Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.2% (0.02% y/y) in December after edging up 0.1% in November. Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (1.3% y/y) in December after a 0.5% rise in November; nondurable goods inventories grew 0.3% (0.1% y/y) following a 0.1% November increase and two consecutive m/m declines.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Manufacturers’ new orders -0.9% (-1.1% y/y) in Dec. vs. -0.8% (-2.3% y/y) in Nov.
- Durable goods orders (-2.2%) fall m/m, while nondurable goods orders (+0.3%) and shipments (+0.6%) rise m/m.
- Unfilled orders drop 0.5% following five straight m/m increases.
- Inventories rise 0.4% m/m for the second successive month.

U.S. Factory Orders Decrease in December, the Fourth M/M Decline in Five Months

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Weakness in the vehicle market hit with a vengeance last month. U.S. light vehicle sales declined 7.4% (+5.5% y/y) to 15.83 million units (SAAR) in January after rising 2.1% to a cycle high of 17.09 million in December. Sales fell to the lowest level since August. The decline in January vehicle sales accompanied a reduced 1.6% y/y rise in real disposable income through December which compared to 3.7% growth logged in 2023.

Sales weakness was broad-based. Light trucks fell 7.1% (+7.2% y/y) during January to 12.80 million units (SAAR) after rising 1.8% in December. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks were off 6.3% (+6.3% y/y) to 9.75 million units, after rising 0.9% in December. Sales of imported light trucks weakened 9.2% (+11.7% y/y) to 3.06 million units, following December’s 5.0% rise.

Trucks’ 80.9% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 80.6% in December and 79.6% in January of last year. The share was	 80.3% during all of 2024 and 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales were also under pressure last month and posted an 8.5% decline (-1.3%) to 3.03 million units (SAAR) in January following a 3.1% December rise. Auto sales had been moving sideways since early 2023. Purchases of domestically-produced cars were off 9.1% (+4.8% y/y) last month to 2.19 million units after rising 2.1% in December. Sales of imported autos weakened 7.7% (-15.2% y/y) to 0.84 million units, reversing a 7.1% December increase.

Imports' share of the U.S. light vehicle market eased to 24.6% in January from 25.0% in December. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% before it reached a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 27.7% last month from 27.5% in December. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.9% last month from 24.5% in December. The percentage has trended up since late 2021 when it was 21.3%.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck purchases and auto sales decline together.
- Both domestic & import sales retreat.
- Imports' market share eases.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall Sharply in January

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The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 50.9 during January from 49.2 in December. It was the first reading above the break-even level of 50 since October 2022, up from a low of 46.9 in October. A level of 49.7 had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021. The data were revised due to new seasonal adjustment factors.

Performance amongst the component indexes was mixed last month. The new orders index surged to 55.1 from 52.1 in December to the highest level since May 2022. An increased 26.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher orders while a lessened 20.0% indicated declines. The January production index surged to 52.5, a ten-month high, after rising to 49.9 in December. An increased 19.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while a lessened 18.5% reported lower. The employment index rose to 50.3, the first reding above break-even since May, from 45.4 in December. An increased 11.7% (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring while a reduced 13.2% indicated less. The supplier delivery index rose to 50.9 last month from December’s 50.1, after hitting a high of 52.6 in July. Working lower, the inventories reading declined to 45.9 last month from 48.4 in December, both below a high of 50.2 in August.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, rose to 54.9 (NSA) in January after increasing to 52.5 in December from 50.3 in November. It was the highest level in eight months and up from a September low of 48.3. An increased 20.7% of respondents reported higher prices last month while a greater 11.0% reported lower prices. The latest prices reading remained below a 60.9 high in April.

In other series, the export orders index rose to 52.4 in January, the highest level since July 2022, up from 50.0 in December. The imports index rose to 51.1 from 49.7 in December, the highest level since May, while the order backlog index fell to 44.9 (NSA) last month from a nine-month high of 45.9 in December.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Reading improves to highest level in over two years.	
- New orders, production and employment rise.
- Prices reading jumps to highest level since last May.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Strengthens in January; Prices Rise

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The value of construction put in place rose an expected 0.5% m/m in December after upwardly revised increases of 0.2% in November (+0.02% initially) and 1.6% in October (+0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The December reading was the third consecutive m/m rise and the fourth in five months. A 0.5% m/m December increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate held at 4.3% in December and November, lower than 9.3% in December 2023; it had remained below its recent high of 9.8% in January 2024 and a peak of 18.6% in April 2022. During all of 2024, construction spending rose 6.5% after rising 6.4% in 2023 and 15.1% in 2022.

Private construction increased 0.9% (4.3% y/y) in December on top of upwardly revised gains of 0.3% in November (+0.1% initially) and 1.9% in October (+0.6% previously). Residential private construction rose 1.5% (6.0% y/y) in December, up for the fourth month in five, following a 0.3% increase in November (+0.1% initially). Home improvement building grew 2.6% (21.9% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, after a 0.8% November gain; it was 41.7% of the residential private construction. Single-family building rose 1.0% (-0.8% y/y), the fourth successive m/m rise, after a 0.4% November increase; it was 45.6% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building, however, slid 0.3% (-10.5% y/y) in December, the 13th straight m/m slide, on top of a 1.3% decrease in November; it was 12.7% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction edged up 0.1% (2.3% y/y) in December, the fourth m/m increase in five months, following a 0.1% uptick in November (-0.02% initially). The December increase reflected m/m rises in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included office (1.1%; 2.5% y/y), communication (0.6%; -2.4% y/y), and utilities (0.3%; 3.6% y/y). In contrast, the following private constructions fell m/m in December: health care (-0.8%; -3.9% y/y), educational (-0.5%; -0.9% y/y), commercial (-0.3%; -7.5% y/y), amusement & recreation (-0.2%; -1.7% y/y), lodging (-0.2%; -5.1% y/y), and transportation (-0.1%; +10.5% y/y). Meanwhile, manufacturing private construction (+0.05%; +11.1% y/y) and religious private construction (+0.02%; -4.6% y/y) were virtually unchanged m/m in December.

The value of public construction fell 0.5% (+4.3% y/y) in December following a 0.1% downtick in November (unrevised) and an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in October (-0.1% previously), reflecting declines of 0.5% (+12.0% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.5% (+4.1% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The December fall reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential public constructions. These included health care (-3.0%; +6.8% y/y), water supply (-2.7%; +13.0% y/y), transportation (-1.3%; +3.0% y/y), conservation & development (-1.2%; -7.1% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (-1.2%; +13.3% y/y), educational (-0.6%; +5.8% y/y), utilities (-0.5%; +2.2% y/y), and amusement & recreation (-0.1%; +19.1% y/y). To the upside, the following public constructions increased m/m in December: commercial (0.1%; 34.5% y/y), office (0.1%; 9.7% y/y), and public safety (0.1%; 13.0% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.4% of public construction spending, rose 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) in December, the fourth m/m rise in five months, after a 0.2% increase in November.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Construction spending +0.5% (4.3% y/y) in Dec. vs. +0.2% (4.3% y/y) in Nov.
- Residential private construction +1.5% m/m, led by a 2.6% gain in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction +0.1% m/m, up for the fourth month in five.
- Public sector construction -0.5% m/m, reflecting a 0.5% drop in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.

U.S. Construction Spending Increases for the Third Straight Month in December

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Economy in Brief

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U.S. Factory Orders Decrease in December, the Fourth M/M Decline in Five Months

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U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Strengthens in January; Prices Rise

U.S. Construction Spending Increases for the Third Straight Month in December