Louise Curley

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<p><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080729j.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353"></p>
<p>Consumer Confidence indicators were released today for France,
the Netherlands and Slovakia. Business confidence indicators for the
Netherlands and Slovakia were also released today. France's Composite
Business Climate Indicator was released last week. Both consumers
business people in the three countries have become increasingly
pessimistic. Consumers have generally been more pessimistic than
industrialists as can be seen in the three attached Charts which show
consumer and business confidence measures for each country.</p>
<p>Consumer confidence in the Netherlands declined by 12
percentage points in July to -31% from -19% in June. The pessimists in
the Netherlands now outweigh the optimists by 31%/ The optimists still
exceed the pessimists among the producers, but the margin has been
shrinking and now is only 2.4 percentage points.</p>
<p>Consumers are even more pessimistic in France where the
percent balance between pessimists and optimists is 48%, up from 46% in
June. France's Composite (synthetic) Business Confidence Indicator has
fallen below its average level of 100. At 98 it is at the lowest level
since April, 2005.</p>
<p>The percent balance between the pessimists and optimists in
Slovakia has been increasing but the pessimists exceed the optimists by
only 8.8% in contrast to the much bigger differences in France and the
Netherlands. The excess of optimists over pessimist in industry has
practically disappeared. It is only 0.7%, and is 15.6 percentage points
below the excess of optimists in July, 2007.</p><p><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080729i.jpg" border="0" height="265" width="312">
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080729h.jpg" border="0" height="265" width="312"></p>
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<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b>CONSUMER
AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE&nbsp;</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>Jul 08</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>Jun&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>Jul 07&nbsp;</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>M/M chg&nbsp;</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>Y/Y&nbsp; chg&nbsp;</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2007</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2006</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2005</b></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="9"><b>Netherlands</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer
Confidence (% balance)</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>-45</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Producers
Confidence&nbsp; (% balance)</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>-2.9</td>
<td>-5.2</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="9"><b>France</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Household
Confidence (% balance)</td>
<td>-48</td>
<td>-46</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-33</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;
Composite (synthetic Bus Confidence Indicator (Average=100; Std Dev =
10)&nbsp;</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>-10.1</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="9"><b>Slovakia</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer
Confidence&nbsp;(% balance)</td>
<td>-8.8</td>
<td>-6.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>-2.4</td>
<td>-11.1</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-9.1</td>
<td>-14.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Industry
Confidence (% balance)</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>16.3</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>-15.6</td>
<td>12.1</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>4.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Consumer Confidence indicators were released today for France, the Netherlands and Slovakia. Business confidence indicators for the Netherlands and Slovakia were also released today. France's Composite Business Climate Indicator was [...]

Consumer and Business Confidence in The Netherlands, France and Slovakia

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Industrial production (IP) rose a larger-than-expected 0.9% m/m (0.5% y/y) in December following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in November (-0.1% initially) and a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in October (-0.4% previously), data from the Federal Reserve Board showed. A 0.3% m/m December increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The December IP index at 103.2 was the highest since June 2024; it was 4.2% above a low of 99.0 in September 2021 and 8.1% above a low of 95.5 in February 2021. The Fed estimated that increases in aircraft & parts output contributed 0.2 percentage point to December IP growth after the resolution of the Boeing strike. In Q4 2024, IP fell 0.2% q/q after falling 0.2% q/q in Q3 2024, dropping at a 0.6% annualized rate following a 0.8% Q3 annualized rate of decline. IP fell 0.3% in 2024 after rising 0.2% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2022.

By industry groups, manufacturing production gained 0.6% (0.03% y/y) in December following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in November (+0.2% initially) and two consecutive m/m declines. Durable goods production rose 0.4% (-1.2% y/y) in December following a 0.9% rebound in November. This reflected m/m output rises of 6.3% (-5.6% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 1.7% (-1.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (-0.4% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.5% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 11.4% (-9.2% y/y), the largest m/m gain since May 2020, following a 0.7% November rebound. In contrast, the following durable goods categories fell m/m in December, including output drops of 2.0% (-3.7% y/y) in furniture & related products, 1.0% (-4.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durables goods, 0.7% (+3.8% y/y) in computer & electronic products, 0.6% (-5.7% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 0.6% (-1.3% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.2% (+0.7% y/y) in machinery, and 0.2% (+2.7% y/y) in wood products.

Nondurable goods production rose 0.7% (1.4% y/y) in December after edging up 0.1% in November and October. The December rise reflected m/m output increases of all nondurable goods categories, including 1.6% (1.2% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, 1.5% (5.5% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 1.2% (-7.2% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.8% (5.4% y/y) in chemicals, 0.6% (-1.0% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, 0.3% (1.3% y/y) in paper, 0.2% (-4.2% y/y) in plastics & rubber products, and 0.1% (2.3% y/y) in textiles & product mills.

Mining activity rose 1.8% (0.3% y/y) in December following an upwardly revised 0.5% decline in November (-0.9% initially). Utilities output rose 2.1% (4.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.7% November drop (-1.3% initially). They increased for the second time in three months.

By market groups, business equipment output rose 1.4% (-4.3% y/y) in December following a 1.4% rise in November and two successive m/m decreases. Materials production advanced 1.2% (1.4% y/y) after virtually unchanged. Construction supplies production increased 0.9% (0.9% y/y) after holding steady. Consumer goods output rose 0.5% (0.3% y/y) in December after a 0.5% rebound, reflecting a 0.4% decline (-5.3% y/y) in durable consumer goods and a 0.7% gain (1.9% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods.

In special classifications, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 1.1% (7.9% y/y) in December after holding steady in November (+0.3% initially) and four straight m/m rises. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries grew 0.6% (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.4% November rebound and two consecutive m/m declines. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts rose 0.7% (0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% November increase and three straight m/m decreases.

Capacity utilization rose to 77.6% in December, the highest since August, after holding at 77.0% in November (76.8% initially). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 77.0%. The December reading was 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization rose to 76.6% in December, the highest since September, from 76.2% in November (76.0% initially); the December rate was 1.7 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Dec. IP +0.9% m/m (+0.5% y/y), up for the second straight month; IP Index at a 6-month high.
- Mfg. IP +0.6% m/m, w/ durable goods up 0.4% and nondurable goods up 0.7%.
- Mining activity +1.8% and utilities output +2.1%, up for the second month in three.
- Key categories in market groups all gain.
- Capacity utilization increases to a 4-month-high 77.6%.

U.S. Industrial Production Exceeds Expectations in December

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Total housing starts jumped 15.8% m/m to a higher-than-expected 1.499 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in December after declines of 3.7% to 1.294 million in November (-1.8% m/m, 1.289 million initially) and 0.8% to 1.344 million in October (-3.2% m/m, 1.312 million previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 1.320 million starts for December. The December reading was the first m/m rise since August and the highest level since February 2024. The year-on-year rate was at -4.4% in December, the smallest y/y decline since September and less severe than -14.3% in November; it was +17.0% y/y in December 2023. Starts were 18.0% below a recent peak of 1.828 million in April 2022. During all of 2024, housing starts fell 4.0% after falling 8.4% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2022.

Single-family starts rose 3.3% (-2.6% y/y) to 1.050 million in December on top of a 7.7% rise to 1.016 million in November (1.011 million initially), registering the fourth m/m rise in five months and the highest level since February 2024. They reached a high of 1.222 million in November 2021 and a high of 1.286 in December 2020. Multi-family starts surged 61.5% (-8.4% y/y) to 449,000, the highest level since December 2023, reversing a 30.7% November decrease to 278,000. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022 and a high of 627,000 units in April 2022.

Housing starts gained in all the major regions except in the West. Starts in the Northeast jumped 40.2% (22.7% y/y) to a three-month-high 157,000 in December, the third m/m increase in four months, after a 2.8% rebound in November. Starts in the Midwest recovered 20.0% (1.0% y/y) to 204,000, up for the second month in three, following a 32.5% November slump. Starts in the South advanced 17.7% (0.1% y/y) to 853,000, the highest level since February 2024, following a 10.2% November rise and two consecutive m/m declines. To the downside, starts in the West fell 0.7% (-26.2% y/y) to 285,000 on top of an 11.7% decrease, registering the third m/m fall in four months and the lowest level since July 2024. Notably, the South continued to post the largest level figure (853,000) for housing starts among the four regions. It showed a peak of 1.048 million in April 2022.

Building permits slid 0.7% (-3.1% y/y) to 1.483 million in December, the third m/m slide in four months, following a 5.2% rise to 1.493 million in November (compared to 1.493 million recently revised on December 23 and 1.505 million initially reported on December 18). They reached a high of 1.915 million in January 2022 and a high of 1.883 million in January 2021. Single-family permits rose 1.6% (-2.5% y/y) to 992,000, the third straight m/m rise and the highest level since February 2024, after a 0.5% increase to 976,000. They reached a high of 1.251 million in January 2022 and a high of 1.250 in January 2021. Multi-family permits fell 5.0% (-4.3% y/y) to 491,000, down for the third month in four, after having recovered 15.4% to 517,000. They reached a peak of 813,000 units in February 2023 and a high of 799,000 units in June 2022.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Housing starts +15.8% (-4.4% y/y) to 1.499 mil. in Dec. vs. -3.7% (-14.3% y/y) to 1.294 mil. in Nov.
- Single-family starts highest since Feb. ’24; multi-family starts highest since Dec. ’23.
- Housing starts up m/m and y/y in the Northeast, Midwest and South but down in the West.
- Building permits fall for the third month in four, due to a drop in multi-family permits.

U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in December; Highest Level Since February 2024

Andrew Cates

**Global bond markets**
The sell-off in bond markets has been a global phenomenon. This is illustrated in chart 1 showing the movement in 10-year government bond yields in the US, UK and Germany over the past 12 months. Still, as the chart’s scaling indicates, divergences in yield levels between the US and UK versus Germany suggest different dynamics have been at play. The US and UK, for example, have been leading the sell-off compared with Germany (and other eurozone members).

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**Global inflation expectations**
That suggests that inflation expectations coupled with inflation uncertainty have been a driver of higher yields. Chart 2 below shows the evolution of consensus forecasts for CPI inflation in 2025 across the US, UK, the euro area (and Japan) throughout 2024. Notably, expectations for inflation in the US and UK inflation rose steadily over the year. In contrast, euro area inflation forecasts remained relatively stable, hovering close to the ECB’s target of around 2%. We will focus more on this again below but for the record Japan’s inflation forecasts saw a gradual uptick, at the same time, but remained modest, increasing from 1.5% to just above 2%.

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**Overseas demand**
The role of overseas demand for US government debt in driving US yields higher could also have been significant. Chart 3 below shows the evolution of foreign holdings of US Treasury securities from 2013 to 2024, segmented by key regions: Japan, China, Europe, and the rest of the world. Over the period, total foreign holdings steadily increased, surpassing $9 trillion by 2024. Notably, Japan has now emerged as the largest single holder of US Treasuries, with its share growing significantly, while China’s holdings, though substantial, have showed some decline in recent years. But a new US administration led by President-elect Trump could now be further disrupting this picture. A potential pivot toward more protectionist policies alongside some question marks about the independence of the Fed and the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency could be combining to undermine overseas demand for safe-haven assets in the United States.

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**Japan**
Japan is worthy of some further separate comment in this regard. That’s because its capital flows are highly significant for global financial markets due to Japan's status as one of the world’s largest net creditor nations. Changes in Japanese capital flows—such as a shift back to domestic assets driven by rising yields or inflation expectations—usually create ripple effects, influencing global bond yields, currency markets (particularly the yen), and risk sentiment. This is why, notwithstanding relatively stable consensus inflation forecasts for 2025 that we noted above, the sharp rise in longer-term market-based inflation forecasts is noteworthy. Chart 5 below illustrates Haver’s calculations for the 5-year breakeven inflation rate in Japan from 2019 to 2024, and shows a sustained increase in those expectations in recent years. That follows several years of subdued expectations driven by entrenched deflationary pressures and weak demand. That the 5-year breakeven inflation rate crossed 2% toward the end of last year is also noteworthy given the Bank of Japan’s inflation objectives. For it potentially signals that monetary policy is still loose and that a further campaign to normalise policy beckons in the months ahead.

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**Quantitative tightening** 
Central bank monetary policies more generally are also worthy of some discussion and particularly their balance sheet policies. Chart 5 below depicts the relationship between central banks' asset holdings as a percentage of GDP (a four-quarter change of an unweighted average for the US, Japan, and the euro area) and the real 10-Year bond yield in the US. The chart underscores the close connection between central bank asset purchases and real yields. In combination with looser US fiscal policy – and a higher degree of government bond issuance – the underlying supply and demand dynamics in the US Treasury market (and other government debt markets) have been shifting. Reduced demand from central banks, in other words, has coincided with additional supply from governments, and thereby amplifying upward pressure on real yields. 


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**US and UK inflation**
The key takeaway from this discussion is that a confluence of factors has driven global yields higher in recent weeks. Inflation and monetary policy concerns, fiscal policy uncertainty, and shifts in capital flows have all likely contributed. As highlighted earlier, the trajectory of yields from here will hinge on incoming economic data and how policymakers respond. On that first point, however, it was notable that this week brought some encouraging news: the latest CPI inflation reports from both the US and UK came in weaker than expected. Notably, the details were also reassuring, with service-sector inflation showing further signs of moderation in both economies (see chart 6 below). This could ease some of the pressure on central banks to keep monetary policy restrictive in the period immediately ahead.

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A steep sell-off in global bond markets has dominated financial headlines over the past week or so, drawing intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike (chart 1). The implications of this for the global economy, however, will depend on the underlying drivers that have been fuelling the rout. With our charts this week, we examine the data to identify some of the likely culprits. Inflation concerns are front and centre, with rising consumer prices in recent months (chart 2) reigniting fears of tighter monetary policy. Waning overseas demand, particularly from Japan and China (charts 3 and 4), may also be playing a significant role. Meanwhile, quantitative tightening (chart 5) has possibly siphoned liquidity from financial markets, while fiscal policy uncertainties are further rattling investor confidence. The easy conclusion is that all these factors—ranging from inflationary pressures to fiscal risks—are complicit to varying degrees. However, whether this marks the beginning of a broader reckoning or merely a passing squall hinges on how incoming data now evolve and how policymakers respond to these challenges. On that first point, weaker-than-expected inflation data from the US and UK this week appear to have stopped the rot for now (chart 6). On the latter, a new US administration could add another layer of unpredictability and the coming weeks could prove pivotal in shaping market expectations and the trajectory of the global economy.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/6C34mSDIvw6rPyTLMDSYso?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Yielding Conclusions

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Total retail sales increased a less-than-expected 0.4% m/m in December after an upwardly revised rises of 0.8% in November (+0.7% initially) and 0.6% in October (+0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The December m/m reading was the fourth consecutive m/m gain and the fifth in six months. A 0.6% m/m December increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate decelerated to 3.9% in December from 4.1% in November. The latest y/y figure, below 5.2% in December 2023, was also lower than a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and significantly below a peak of 52.5% in April 2021. During all of 2024, retail sales rose 2.6% after gaining 3.6% in 2023 and 9.1% in 2022.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose 0.4% (2.9% y/y) in December after an unrevised 0.2% increase in November, registering the fourth successive m/m rise and the sixth in seven months. A 0.5% m/m December increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts grew 0.7% (8.4% y/y), the fourth straight m/m gain, on top of a 3.1% November increase; this compared to a 3.1% rise (7.2% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales following a 3.0% November increase.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.7% (4.1% y/y) in December, up for the third month in four, following a 0.4% rise in November. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials grew 0.5% (3.8% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m gain, after a 0.3% November increase.

Sales by category were mostly positive in December. Miscellaneous store sales jumped 4.3% (3.7% y/y) in December, the first m/m gain since September, reversing a 3.9% drop in November. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales rose 2.6% (1.8% y/y), the first m/m rise in three months, following a 0.3% November decline. Furniture & home furnishing store sales advanced 2.3% (8.4% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, on top of a 1.3% November increase. Clothing & accessory store sales rebounded 1.5% (2.4% y/y), the third m/m gain in four months, following a 0.8% November drop. Gasoline station sales rose 1.5% (-1.2% y/y) in December after rising 0.2% in the prior two months. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.4% (5.8% y/y), the third straight m/m rise, after a 0.9% November increase. General merchandise store sales rose 0.3% (2.6% y/y), up for the third month in four, after holding steady in November; within this grouping, department store sales edged up 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) after falling 0.4% in November and October. Nonstore retail sales grew 0.2% (6.0% y/y), the third m/m increase in four months, after a 1.7% November gain.

To the downside, building materials & garden equipment store sales slid 2.0% (-1.8% y/y), the third consecutive m/m slide, on top of a 0.8% November decrease.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales fell 0.2% (+3.4% y/y) in December, down for the second month in three, following a 0.3% increase in November. Food & beverage store sales, however, rose 0.8% (3.1% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, reversing a 0.2% November decline.

Consumers seemed to eat out less frequently in December amid still-high inflation (December CPI +0.4% m/m, +2.9% y/y; core CPI +0.2% m/m, +3.2% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales fell 0.3% (+2.4% y/y) in December, the first m/m fall since March 2024, following an upwardly revised 0.1% uptick in November (-0.4% initially).

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- December total retail sales +0.4% (+3.9% y/y), w/ m/m rises in most categories.
- Ex-auto sales +0.4% (+2.9% y/y); auto sales +0.7% (+8.4% y/y).
- Rebounds in miscellaneous store sales (+4.3%) and sporting goods store sales (+2.6%).
- Drops in building materials & garden equipt. store sales (-2.0%) and restaurant & drinking place sales (-0.3%).

Consumer and Business Confidence in The Netherlands, France and Slovakia

Summary

Louise Curley

More Economy in Brief

U.S. Industrial Production Exceeds Expectations in December

U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in December; Highest Level Since February 2024

Charts of the Week: Yielding Conclusions

U.S. Retail Sales Rise for the Fourth Straight Month in December

CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE	Jul 08	Jun 08	Jul 07	M/M chg	Y/Y chg	2007	2006	2005
Netherlands
Consumer Confidence (% balance)	-31	-19	14	-12	-45	8	-1	-22
Producers Confidence (% balance)	2.4	5.3	7.6	-2.9	-5.2	7.8	6.8	0.6
France
Household Confidence (% balance)	-48	-46	-15	-2	-33	-21	-25	-28
Composite (synthetic Bus Confidence Indicator (Average=100; Std Dev = 10)	98	101	109	-3.0	-10.1	109	106	100
Slovakia
Consumer Confidence (% balance)	-8.8	-6.4	2.3	-2.4	-11.1	-1.0	-9.1	-14.6
Industry Confidence (% balance)	0.7	2.3	16.3	-1.6	-15.6	12.1	7.6	4.6