- Purchase applications rise 0.6% w/w while refinancing loan applications fall 2.9% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans drops to a still-high 7.20%.
- Average loan size rises to the highest since the December 13 week.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Jan 17 2025U.S. Industrial Production Exceeds Expectations in December
- Dec. IP +0.9% m/m (+0.5% y/y), up for the second straight month; IP Index at a 6-month high.
- Mfg. IP +0.6% m/m, w/ durable goods up 0.4% and nondurable goods up 0.7%.
- Mining activity +1.8% and utilities output +2.1%, up for the second month in three.
- Key categories in market groups all gain.
- Capacity utilization increases to a 4-month-high 77.6%.
- Housing starts +15.8% (-4.4% y/y) to 1.499 mil. in Dec. vs. -3.7% (-14.3% y/y) to 1.294 mil. in Nov.
- Single-family starts highest since Feb. ’24; multi-family starts highest since Dec. ’23.
- Housing starts up m/m and y/y in the Northeast, Midwest and South but down in the West.
- Building permits fall for the third month in four, due to a drop in multi-family permits.
USA| Jan 16 2025U.S. Retail Sales Rise for the Fourth Straight Month in December
- December total retail sales +0.4% (+3.9% y/y), w/ m/m rises in most categories.
- Ex-auto sales +0.4% (+2.9% y/y); auto sales +0.7% (+8.4% y/y).
- Rebounds in miscellaneous store sales (+4.3%) and sporting goods store sales (+2.6%).
- Drops in building materials & garden equipt. store sales (-2.0%) and restaurant & drinking place sales (-0.3%).
USA| Jan 14 2025U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises Again in December; Highest Level Since October 2018
- December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 3.4 pts. to 105.1.
- Uncertainty Index down 12 pts. to a six-month-low 86.
- Expectations for economy up 16 pts. to 52%, the highest since March 2002.
- Expected real sales up 8 pts. to 22%, the highest since January 2020.
- Inflation (20%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%); both unchanged from November.
- Gasoline prices highest since the November 25 week.
- Crude oil costs highest since the October 11 week.
- Natural gas prices highest since the week of January 12, 2024.
- Gasoline demand rises; gasoline inventories decline, but crude oil inventories increase.
- Manufacturers’ new orders -0.4% (-1.9% y/y) in Nov. vs. +0.5% (+2.1% y/y) in Oct.
- Durable goods orders (-1.2%) fall m/m, while nondurable goods orders (+0.4%) and shipments (+0.1%) increase m/m.
- Unfilled orders rise 0.3%, the fifth straight m/m increase.
- Inventories rebound 0.3%, the first m/m rise since August.
- Light truck sales highest since Apr. ’21; imported light truck sales at a record high.
- Auto sales highest since Apr. ’23.
- Domestic & import sales both increase.
- Imports' market share rebounds to 24.7%, the highest since Nov. ’23.
- FHFA HPI +0.4% (+4.5% y/y) in October vs. +0.7% (+4.5% y/y) in September.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions but down for the first time since June in Pacific (-0.4%), Mountain (-0.1%), and West North Central (-0.1%).
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (7.0%).
- PHSI +2.2% (+6.9% y/y) in November vs. +1.8% (+5.3% y/y) in October.
- Home sales up m/m in the South (5.2%), West (0.5%) and Midwest (0.4%) but down m/m in the Northeast (-1.3%).
- Home sales up y/y in all four regions, w/ the highest y/y rate in the West (11.8%).
USA| Dec 27 2024U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens to $102.86 Billion in November
- Larger-than-expected goods trade deficit after October’s narrowing.
- Exports rise 4.4%, the first m/m gain since August.
- Imports rebound 4.5%, the second m/m increase in three months.
- November sales +5.9% (+8.7% y/y) to 664,000 vs. -14.8% (-6.8% y/y) to 627,000 in October.
- Sales up m/m and y/y in the Midwest and South but down m/m and y/y in the Northeast and West.
- Median sales price drops to $402,600, the lowest since Feb. ’22; avg. sales price falls to a 3-month-low $484,800.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale drops to 8.9 mths. from October’s 2-year high.
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