- CFNAI -0.28 in May; -0.36 in April.
- Two of four CFNAI components up m/m, but three make negative contributions.
- Personal Consumption & Housing index falls to -0.12, a four-month low.
- CFNAI-MA3 drops to -0.16, the first negative figure since Jan.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Jun 25 2025U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound 1.1% in the June 20 Week
- Purchase applications fall 0.4% w/w while refinancing loan applications recover 3.0% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rises to 7.06%.
- Average loan size declines to the lowest level since the January 17 week.
USA| Jun 24 2025U.S. FHFA House Prices Drop in April After Holding Steady
- Apr. FHFA HPI -0.4% m/m (+3.0% y/y, lowest since May ’23); 0.0% m/m (+3.9% y/y) in Mar.
- House prices down m/m in five of nine census divisions but up in Middle Atlantic, East South Central, East North Central, and West North Central.
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (7.4%) and the lowest rate in Pacific (0.5%).
- May IP -0.2% (+0.6% y/y), led by a 2.9% m/m decrease in utilities output.
- Mfg. IP +0.1%, reflecting m/m gains of 4.9% in auto production and 1.1% in aerospace & misc. transp. equipt. (w/ durable goods up 0.4% and nondurable goods down 0.2%).
- Mining activity edges up 0.1%, the third m/m increase in four months.
- Key categories in market groups mostly drop.
- Capacity utilization down 0.3%pt. to a four-month-low 77.4%; mfg. capacity utilization unchanged at 76.7%.
USA| Jun 16 2025U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Falls in June to a Three-Month Low
- June General Business Conditions Index down 6.8 pts. to -16.0.
- Negative numbers for new orders (-14.2), shipments (-7.2), and unfilled orders (-8.3), but positive readings for employment (4.7, highest since Dec. ’22) and inventories (0.9).
- Current prices paid drops 12.2 pts. to a three-month-low 46.8.
- Firms are optimistic about the future business outlook, w/ Future Business Conditions Index up to a four-month-high 21.2 and future prices paid down to a three-month-low 59.6.
USA| Jun 11 2025U.S. Mortgage Applications Jump 12.5% in the June 6 Week After Three Straight W/W Declines
- Purchase applications (+10.3%) and refinancing loan applications (+15.6%) rebound w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edges up to 7.12%.
- Average loan size rebounds.
- Headline: -3.7% m/m; +0.9% y/y, the smallest y/y gain in four months.
- Durable goods orders (-6.3%), nondurable goods orders (-0.9%), and shipments (-0.3%) all decrease m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders -17.1% m/m, w/ a 51.5% plunge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders unchanged m/m vs. a 1.6% March jump.
- Inventories -0.1%, the first m/m easing since September.
USA| Jun 02 2025U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Decreases in April
- Headline: -0.4% m/m, the third straight m/m fall; -0.5% y/y, the first negative y/y pace since Apr. ’19.
- Residential private construction -0.9% m/m, led by a 1.1% drop in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.5% m/m, down for the third month in four.
- Public sector construction +0.4% m/m, reflecting a 0.5% rise in nonresidential public building.
- Deficit: $87.6 bil. in April, down $74.6 bil. from a record $162.3 bil. in March.
- Exports up 3.4%, the largest of four straight m/m gains, led by a 15.5% jump in exports of industrial supplies & materials.
- Imports, down in all end-use categories, slump 19.8%, the deepest m/m fall since Feb. 1975, led by a 32.3% plunge in nonauto consumer goods imports.
- PHSI -6.3% (-2.5% y/y) in April vs. +5.5% (-1.2% y/y) in March.
- Widespread m/m falls in home sales, w/ the deepest decline in the West (-8.9%).
- Home sales down y/y in the West (-6.5%), Northeast (-3.0%), and South (-3.0%) but up y/y in the Midwest (+2.2%).
- Headline: -6.3% (+3.2% y/y) in April vs. +7.6% (+10.0% y/y) in March.
- Nondefense aircraft orders plunge 51.5% m/m vs. a 158.5% March surge.
- Transportation orders slump 17.1% m/m; excluding transportation, orders rebound 0.2% m/m.
- Core capital goods shipments dip 0.1%, the first m/m easing since October.
- Durable goods shipments +0.4% m/m, unfilled orders unchanged, and inventories +0.1% m/m.
USA| May 13 2025U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Falls to a Six-month Low in April Amid Continued Uncertainty
- Apr. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 1.6 pts. to 95.8; the fourth straight m/m fall.
- Uncertainty Index down 4 pts. to 92, the lowest since Dec.
- Expectations for economy down 6 pts. to 15%, the lowest since Oct.
- Expected real sales down 4 pts. to -1%, the first negative reading since Oct.
- Net percent of firms raising avg. selling prices down 1 pt. to a 3-month-low 25%.
- Quality of labor (19%), taxes (16%), and inflation (14%) are the top three business concerns.
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