- FHFA HPI +0.2% m/m (+4.8% y/y) in Jan.; +0.5% m/m (+4.8% y/y) in Dec.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions but down in South Atlantic and Mountain.
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (8.2%).
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Mar 25 2025U.S. FHFA House Price Growth Decelerates in January
- Feb. IP +0.7% (+1.4% y/y) after +0.3% (+2.0% y/y) in Jan.; IP Index highest on record.
- Mfg. IP +0.9% m/m, led by an 8.5% jump in auto production (w/ durable goods up 1.6% and nondurable goods up 0.2%).
- Mining activity rebounds 2.8%, the second m/m rise in three months, while utilities output drops 2.5%, the first m/m fall since Nov.
- Key categories in market groups all increase.
- Capacity utilization rises to an eight-month-high 78.2%.
- General Business Conditions Index down 25.7 pts. to -20.0 in March.
- Negative numbers for new orders (-14.9), shipments (-8.5), unfilled orders (-2.0), and employment (-4.1), but positive reading for inventories (13.3), the highest since Nov. ’22.
- Inflation pressures increase, w/ current prices paid up to 44.9, the highest since Feb. ’23.
- Firms are less optimistic about the future business outlook, w/ Future Business Conditions Index down to 12.7, the lowest since Nov. ’23 and future prices paid up to 58.2, the highest since June ’22.
USA| Mar 12 2025U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise 11.2% in the March 7 Week
- Purchase applications increase 7.0% w/w; refinancing loan applications gain 16.2% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans declines to a still-elevated 6.85%.
- Average loan size rises to a record high.
USA| Mar 11 2025U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Recedes to a Four-Month Low in February Amid Uncertainty
- Feb. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 2.1 pts. to 100.7; second consecutive m/m decline following four straight m/m rises.
- Uncertainty Index up 4 pts. to 104, the second highest reading.
- Expectations for economy down 10 pts. to 37%, the lowest since November.
- Expected real sales down 6 pts. to 14%, a three-month low.
- Net percent of firms raising avg. selling prices up 10 pts. to 32%, the biggest m/m increase since Apr. ’21 and the highest reading since May '23.
- Quality of labor (19%) and inflation (16%) are top business concerns.
- January construction spending -0.2% m/m; +3.3% y/y, the lowest y/y rate since June ’19.
- Residential private construction -0.4% m/m, led by a 1.5% drop in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction unchanged after two successive m/m rises.
- Public sector construction +0.1% m/m, led by a 0.2% rebound in nonresidential public building.
- Deepening in goods trade deficit after December’s widening.
- Exports rise 2.0% m/m vs. a 3.8% December drop, led by a 10.9% rebound in exports of consumer goods ex-autos.
- Imports, up in all end-use categories, jump 11.9%, the largest m/m increase since July ’20 to a record level, led by a record 32.7% surge in imports of industrial supplies & materials.
USA| Feb 25 2025U.S. FHFA House Prices Continue a String of Gains in December
- FHFA HPI +0.4% m/m (+4.7% y/y) in Dec.; +0.4% m/m (+4.5% y/y) in Nov.
- House prices rise m/m in seven of nine census divisions but ease 0.1% m/m in West North Central and West South Central.
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in New England (7.8%).
- House price growth accelerates to 1.4% q/q (+4.5% y/y) in Q4'24 from 0.9% q/q (+4.5% y/y) in Q3'24.
- CFNAI -0.03 in January vs. +0.18 in December.
- Two of four CFNAI components fall m/m and one makes a negative contribution.
- CFNAI-MA3 improves to +0.03, the highest since Oct. ’22; well above -0.70 (recession signal).
- Existing home sales -4.9% (+2.0% y/y) to 4.08 mil. in Jan.; +2.9% (+9.7% y/y) to 4.29. mil. in Dec.
- Sales patterns mostly decline, w/ elevated home prices and high mortgage rates.
- Median sales price decreases to $396,900, the lowest level since March ’24.
- Despite its drop, Current General Activity Index (18.1) stays in positive territory, suggesting continued expansion in mfg. activity.
- Key subindexes remain positive: Shipments (26.3), New Orders (21.9), and Employment (5.3).
- Inflation indicators are at a two-year high and above their long-run averages.
- Future General Activity Index (27.8), while falling, remains in positive territory, albeit w/ less widespread expectations for overall future growth.
USA| Feb 19 2025U.S. Energy Prices Rise in the Latest Week
- Gasoline prices highest since the October 14 week.
- Crude oil prices up for the first time since the January 17 week.
- Natural gas prices rebound to a 4-week high, up 153.5% y/y.
- Gasoline demand rises; both gasoline and crude oil inventories increase.
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