- Existing home sales -4.9% (+2.0% y/y) to 4.08 mil. in Jan.; +2.9% (+9.7% y/y) to 4.29. mil. in Dec.
- Sales patterns mostly decline, w/ elevated home prices and high mortgage rates.
- Median sales price decreases to $396,900, the lowest level since March ’24.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
- Despite its drop, Current General Activity Index (18.1) stays in positive territory, suggesting continued expansion in mfg. activity.
- Key subindexes remain positive: Shipments (26.3), New Orders (21.9), and Employment (5.3).
- Inflation indicators are at a two-year high and above their long-run averages.
- Future General Activity Index (27.8), while falling, remains in positive territory, albeit w/ less widespread expectations for overall future growth.
USA| Feb 19 2025U.S. Energy Prices Rise in the Latest Week
- Gasoline prices highest since the October 14 week.
- Crude oil prices up for the first time since the January 17 week.
- Natural gas prices rebound to a 4-week high, up 153.5% y/y.
- Gasoline demand rises; both gasoline and crude oil inventories increase.
USA| Feb 14 2025U.S. Industrial Production Exceeds Expectations Again in January
- Jan. IP +0.5% (+2.0% y/y) following +1.0% (+0.5% y/y) in Dec.; IP Index highest since Sept. ’22.
- Mfg. IP -0.1% m/m, led by a 5.2% decrease in auto production (w/ durable goods virtually unchanged and nondurable goods down 0.3%).
- Utilities output jumps 7.2%, the largest m/m rise since Feb. ’21, while mining activity falls 1.2%, the fourth m/m decline in five months.
- Key categories in market groups mostly increase.
- Capacity utilization rises to a 5-month-high 77.8%.
- Manufacturers’ new orders -0.9% (-1.1% y/y) in Dec. vs. -0.8% (-2.3% y/y) in Nov.
- Durable goods orders (-2.2%) fall m/m, while nondurable goods orders (+0.3%) and shipments (+0.6%) rise m/m.
- Unfilled orders drop 0.5% following five straight m/m increases.
- Inventories rise 0.4% m/m for the second successive month.
- Construction spending +0.5% (4.3% y/y) in Dec. vs. +0.2% (4.3% y/y) in Nov.
- Residential private construction +1.5% m/m, led by a 2.6% gain in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction +0.1% m/m, up for the fourth month in five.
- Public sector construction -0.5% m/m, reflecting a 0.5% drop in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
- PHSI -5.5% (-5.0% y/y) in December vs. +1.6% (+6.2% y/y) in November.
- Widespread m/m falls in home sales, w/ the deepest drop in the West (-10.3%).
- Home sales down y/y in all four regions, w/ the largest decline in the Midwest (-6.9%).
- FHFA HPI +0.3% (+4.2% y/y, lowest since June ’23) in Nov., easing from +0.5% (+4.5% y/y) in Oct.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions but down for the first time since July in East South Central (-0.6%) and West South Central (-0.4%).
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in New England (7.7%).
- CFNAI +0.15 in December, the first positive reading since May ’24.
- Two of four CFNAI components increase m/m and two make positive contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 improves to -0.13, a 5-month high; still negative but well above -0.70 (recession signal).
- Purchase applications rise 0.6% w/w while refinancing loan applications fall 2.9% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans drops to a still-high 7.20%.
- Average loan size rises to the highest since the December 13 week.
USA| Jan 17 2025U.S. Industrial Production Exceeds Expectations in December
- Dec. IP +0.9% m/m (+0.5% y/y), up for the second straight month; IP Index at a 6-month high.
- Mfg. IP +0.6% m/m, w/ durable goods up 0.4% and nondurable goods up 0.7%.
- Mining activity +1.8% and utilities output +2.1%, up for the second month in three.
- Key categories in market groups all gain.
- Capacity utilization increases to a 4-month-high 77.6%.
- Housing starts +15.8% (-4.4% y/y) to 1.499 mil. in Dec. vs. -3.7% (-14.3% y/y) to 1.294 mil. in Nov.
- Single-family starts highest since Feb. ’24; multi-family starts highest since Dec. ’23.
- Housing starts up m/m and y/y in the Northeast, Midwest and South but down in the West.
- Building permits fall for the third month in four, due to a drop in multi-family permits.
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