Global| Nov 17 2006Mexico GDP Up 4.6% Yr/Yr in Q3, With Good Gains in Construction and Services
Summary
Mexico's GDP is enjoying its best run of growth since before dot.com bust in 2001. In Q3, the year-on-year gain was 4.6%, following 5.5% and 4.7% in Q1 and Q2, respectively. The quarterly growth in Q3 was 1.0% from Q2, led by [...]
Mexico's GDP is enjoying its best run of growth since before dot.com bust in 2001. In Q3, the year-on-year gain was 4.6%, following 5.5% and 4.7% in Q1 and Q2, respectively. The quarterly growth in Q3 was 1.0% from Q2, led by construction and transportation. Manufacturing edged up a mere 0.1% and didn't grow at all in Q2, but it had surged 2.9% in Q1 and is ahead 5.1% year-on-year. These data were reported yesterday afternoon, November 16, by INEGI, the Mexican government statistics institute.
Government officials, speaking prior to the G-20 Conference in Melbourne, Australia, indicated that this pattern was in line with their hopes. Their aim is to diminish the Mexican economy's dependency on demand from the US. So they are emphasizing local construction and services industries. The financial sector and other business services are up 4.6% year-on-year for Q3, the same as total GDP, but they have been expanding more rapidly than the total for most of the last five years. Finance Minister Gil Diaz highlighted the growth in construction, fueled in part by expansion of mortgage lending. Indeed, during the first half of this year, mortgage lending at banks was running more than 40% ahead of last year. Gross value added in construction is up 7.7% in Q3 from a year ago and 2.6% Q3/Q2 alone. Another strong sector is transportation, storage and communication, up 9.4% year-on-year. Mexico's output of oil is slowing, but its production of natural gas is growing rapidly, and we would surmise that pipeline usage is one part of the gain in the transportation sector.
| Mexico | Bil. New 1993 Pesos | Q3 2006 | Q2 2006 | Q1 2006 | Year Ago | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1854.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 |
| Manufacturing | 330.0 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -1.3 |
| Construction | 73.8 | 2.6 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 3.3 |
| Transportation, Etc. | 236.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.0 |
| Finance, Other Business Services | 301.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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